BTC. I think the fall is not over.

After an unsuccessful attempt by sellers to break through the $ 3800, the rollback began after the fall. There were quite good volumes, and after the break of $ 4080-4130 $, the prospect of a reversal appeared. In my previous idea, I was waiting for a rollback of 4700-4750 $, but the price did not reach this price zone and stopped at a level of 0.618 from the incident wave of November 18.
If you look at the 1h timeframe, it is clearly seen that after the breakdown of 4080-4130 there were still some growths, but after the first failed attempt, the volumes decreased significantly:

Now sellers have shown their strength and readiness to continue to fall. At 12h timeframe it is evident that red candles completely absorb previous greenery:

sellers broke a price zone of 4080-4130 and buyers do not yet have volumes to bring this area under their control. Therefore, I do not see the current fall as a correction after the growth.
Although the volumes during the growth were good, but in my opinion they are not enough to convince other market participants about the reversal and to redeem all the unprofitable positions of traders who bought for 5500, 4750 ....
So I expect to start the test at $ 3750-3800. If buyers keep this price zone, then you can count on broad consolidation.
However, I think that buyers will not be able to keep this price zone and the next stop is 3400 and the final 3150 $.
If you take the fall wave from November 18th and take into account that it corrected to the level of 0.618, then at the price of 3400 the new wave of the fall will be half the previous, and at the point $ 3150 $ 0.618 from the previous one:

Therefore, I expect a test of $ 3600-3800 to see the probability of working out my script.

ความคิดเห็น:

I expect to break the triangle down. The first target is $ 3340. The last target is $ 3050$.

ความคิดเห็น:

sellers broke the triangle down and tested my first target. After stopping in the price zone of 3340-3380, I am expecting a continuation of the fall to 3150 with the ultimate goal of $ 3050. An alternative scenario is possible, but while buyers do not break 3420 I do not consider it.