BTC: bubble/recovery analysis from an engineers point of view

25 ก.ย. 2018

Hello everyone,

First of all, thank you for reading. I tried my best to articulate my thoughts as well as possible.
I would love to discuss this analysis with you, whether you are in favour or very much against my line of thinking.
I am here to learn and make money, but first you have to learn in order to make money - and learning is best done by explaining your thoughts and reasoning to other people.
Finally, please keep in mind that this is an engineers point of view, which tends to be exact.
My analysis does not take into account factors like massive manipulation or the dumping of 100k BTC from MtGox/Silk Road, or other situations like this.

Thank you and good luck with trading,

Nick.

26 ก.ย. 2018

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Bottom gradient still increasing. BTC still working on the current move up.
6600-6800 range will be an important one to break for now, as the bottom gradient is then again increased by breaking both resistance and a trend line. Afterwards there are infinite possibilities, I've given a possible one in the second image. Let me know your thoughts!

26 ก.ย. 2018

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Just some more clarification:

The main reason I think we will see a break upwards rather than upwards has to do with the increasing gradient and the rate of change of the gradient.

I believe that the increasing gradient also carries some sort of "momentum" that is very hard to turn around. The gradient has been increasing ever since the bubble popped, if it would start decreasing again that would imply that the bubble pops a second time! So in my view, considering all of the positive developments and the historical support of mining costs, a second bubble popping is an impossibility.

Regards,
Nic

26 ก.ย. 2018

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Edit in above comment: we will see a break upwards rather than downwards*

28 ก.ย. 2018

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Panning out as expected for now.
For what it's worth, a lot of technicals moved from "sell" to either "neutral" or "buy" compared to yesterday, and the bulls seem to hold up well to the bears. It's going to be an interesting couple of days, that's for sure.

Thanks for reading!