Bitcoin action at ATH repeating Dec/Jan pattern pre-halving?

Bitcoin seems to be repeating the pattern that played out last December and January. Breakout to short term high, followed by choppy retracement. Then a lower high followed by higher post breakout low. Then minor break back to short term high.

Makes me wonder if we will see something like the orange pattern with a retest of short term low follwed by a break to 80k going into halving. Then retrace on "sell the news" after halving.

I hesitate to go further since the January breakouts after this point were caused by ETF approval. I feel we are likely to consolidate for a while after halving because supply shock typically takes several months as miners unload treasuries.