Bitcoins unstoppable V shape rally,
ที่อัปเดต:
Yesterday around 12 hours ago when we reached the 6150, i posted an update about a possible bearish wedge. Volume profile was not really confirming it, at least wasn't great but the shape and position was there. But eventually after a few hours the drop was already taking too long and i posted a new update:
Hmmm, seems they just don't want to let it drop. The longer this takes, bigger the odds for another push up. It's just not use fighting it. They destroyed bears many times the past weeks, getting all the magical TA tools out of the closet that say why it should drop. Well, they clearly don't really care, just does whatever it wants.
Anyway, think if they can hold it above the 6100ish, likely to see another push. I think at least a temp high is closing in, but could also be at 6250/6350. On the right we can see, how the past few hours has possibly been turned into a bul flag.
if the 6080/60 breaks with a quick candle, so a fast drop, than it will become more likely to see an even bigger drop. Maybe even 5700 up to 5900.
Now we have reached those levels as well now. Still looks very strong at the moment. But the charts are screaming for a correction down. At least a little one of like 200/300 points from the high. We are inside of a big resistance zone as well. Reaching that ideal bull trap level around 6500, i mentioned 6 weeks ago. However, i have been told past days that many people are expecting the high to be set at current levels, around 6400. Well that makes me think that won't happen. So based on going against what most think, i have drawn the blue line on the left. Breaking above that resistance, which might be a big stop loss level. So the whales who pushed this market up, prob have their closing orders ready at those prices. So they might try and force a big short squeeze straight into their Take Profit orders. So they can close their big bags without pushing the market down with their volume. That's always what they try to do, letting the market buy in to their sell orders.
The short term support levels are getting smaller the higher we go. With support levels, i mean levels that prevent a 200/500 point drop. AT the moment i think we have a first small one around 6240, but think a bigger level is the 6100/6080.
Open Intrest increased like crazy since yesterday, showing that a lot of people are simply buying these highs, in this big resistance zone. I don't like that at all and hope it's people who have long positions from the 3K levels, or at least from the low 5K levels. Otherwise, it's just asking for troubles.
Short term, i think we can follow that channel on the right as well. A break of that one doesn't necessarily mean a big drop, but very likely to see a retest of 6150ish. Alts made a nice push up finally, but already giving away a lot of the profits. These just simply don't want to rally and will very likely never will with the current rally. Think alts want to drop first, waiting for a big correction of Bitcoin. Maybe then if Bitcoin rallies again, the alts will follow again as well. Until then, i would not expect anything from those.
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Previous analysis:
Hmmm, seems they just don't want to let it drop. The longer this takes, bigger the odds for another push up. It's just not use fighting it. They destroyed bears many times the past weeks, getting all the magical TA tools out of the closet that say why it should drop. Well, they clearly don't really care, just does whatever it wants.
Anyway, think if they can hold it above the 6100ish, likely to see another push. I think at least a temp high is closing in, but could also be at 6250/6350. On the right we can see, how the past few hours has possibly been turned into a bul flag.
if the 6080/60 breaks with a quick candle, so a fast drop, than it will become more likely to see an even bigger drop. Maybe even 5700 up to 5900.
Now we have reached those levels as well now. Still looks very strong at the moment. But the charts are screaming for a correction down. At least a little one of like 200/300 points from the high. We are inside of a big resistance zone as well. Reaching that ideal bull trap level around 6500, i mentioned 6 weeks ago. However, i have been told past days that many people are expecting the high to be set at current levels, around 6400. Well that makes me think that won't happen. So based on going against what most think, i have drawn the blue line on the left. Breaking above that resistance, which might be a big stop loss level. So the whales who pushed this market up, prob have their closing orders ready at those prices. So they might try and force a big short squeeze straight into their Take Profit orders. So they can close their big bags without pushing the market down with their volume. That's always what they try to do, letting the market buy in to their sell orders.
The short term support levels are getting smaller the higher we go. With support levels, i mean levels that prevent a 200/500 point drop. AT the moment i think we have a first small one around 6240, but think a bigger level is the 6100/6080.
Open Intrest increased like crazy since yesterday, showing that a lot of people are simply buying these highs, in this big resistance zone. I don't like that at all and hope it's people who have long positions from the 3K levels, or at least from the low 5K levels. Otherwise, it's just asking for troubles.
Short term, i think we can follow that channel on the right as well. A break of that one doesn't necessarily mean a big drop, but very likely to see a retest of 6150ish. Alts made a nice push up finally, but already giving away a lot of the profits. These just simply don't want to rally and will very likely never will with the current rally. Think alts want to drop first, waiting for a big correction of Bitcoin. Maybe then if Bitcoin rallies again, the alts will follow again as well. Until then, i would not expect anything from those.
Please don't forget to like if you appreciate this :)
Previous analysis:
บันทึกช่วยจำ
Why the tile V shape? Because when you zoom out, we can see a V shape rally now. It's not the best one, because it took a but too much time with this rally. Usually want to see the rally have just as much conviction as the drop. So a consolidation would be best case for Bitcoin. Meaning making like a right shoulder coming month or so between 5000/6500 (or whatever the high will be). This scenario is not what i have in mind though, but just pointing it out, because i see no one talking about this possible V shape.บันทึกช่วยจำ
New Bitcoin ABC/12345 analysis update
บันทึกช่วยจำ
Some weakness now, weak bounce and at what seems to be an important support zone around 6200. Also a possible neckline. So we could see a right shoulder form now. If that happens, bears could still fail. But if we see it break now, so withing like 5/15 min, it could dump much more. We have seen these moves more past 2 days, each time bulls turned it around when it was taking too long. I posted a few messages about it in my channel yesterday and today. So again very likely to assume again, that if a drop takes too long again, that prob just go up
บันทึกช่วยจำ
I know there was another one, can't find it that quickly. But almost identical. Like during these drops, the whales who pushed it up past weeks, keep getting in at these spots. There will be a moment coming days, that they won't support (when they have taken profit), until then, they simply can keep doing this.At the moment bounced up nicely again, already unlikely to see it become a right shoulder. Normally going up too fast for a weak right shoulder. 6340ish could still work, above 6360/80 the bulls will very likely pulled it off again. Selling volume is just not strong enough
บันทึกช่วยจำ
For a more reliable H&S, the right shoulder should be smaller than the left one. When it gets above it, on low time frames the chances will drop to like 25%. So it either drops a bit again. For a failing H&S we could also see a drop to like 6250/60 and make a higher low. Like the H&S some people were calling for past weeks, right shoulder had even 2 higher lows. Big reason to why it failed.
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