BTC: acting as expected until now (update: a little surprise)
Yesterday I published an analysis (see related idea: "BTC: acting as expected until now") that I said: "I think there is low probability that BTC surpasses the 9.1 ~9.4k congestion zone (strong resistance) right now; I expect a correction, I do not know the extension of that correction".
I wrote that analysis while BTC was in the 8.9k level. At that time, I was thinking that BTC will close below the 9.1k level, but it close right on the upper limit of the 9.1~9.4k congestion zone signaled on the chart and this surprised me a bit.
Considering this, I have to update the scenarios presented in that analysis. In fact, I'd like to add a new scenario:
0. I STILL think there is low probability that BTC surpasses the 9.1 ~9.4k congestion zone (strong resistance) right now; BUT I expect a PERIOD OF CONSOLIDATION or a correction. In case of a correction, the question is how deep can BTC go.
In the yestarday analysis I also said: "Low probability is not ZERO probability."
1. The 9.1~9.4k congestion zone is strong, as is the 7.5~8.3k zone. However, the first zone is narrower than the last one. On the other side, the (+/-) 9.4k level is a strong resistance level. BTC may consolidate around this level 9.1~9.4k before it gets a clear path (up or down, see: point 5 below). In case of a period of consolidation (it can be short, just a few days), BTC can reach the 10k level. If not, the analysis presented yestarday will be valid.
2. Considering that a retraction/correction is the most likely scenario (it will be caracterized by a break down the 9.1k level); the first target is the 8.5k level. It is where EMA 18 is placed right now. BTC may re-test this level as support (or more precisely: re-test EMA 18 as support).
3. If EMA 18 do not hold, the next level is EMA 200 (observe: EMA 200 and EMA 50 are converging). Both EMA 200 and EMA 50 are inside a strong congestion zone: the 7.5~8.3k congestion zone. If EMA 200 do not hold, then we can expect that BTC to re-test the 7.5k level as support.
4. In my point of view, we are not in a bear market (see related idea: "BTC: things are clear now"). There is a purple uptrend line that iniciates in feb. 2019 and was tested in nov. 2019, dec. 2019 and jan. 2020. BTC may re-test this line as support. Today, this support is around the 7.2k level. If a new test of that uptrend line occurs and it holds, then things will become more interesting.
I wrote that analysis while BTC was in the 8.9k level. At that time, I was thinking that BTC will close below the 9.1k level, but it close right on the upper limit of the 9.1~9.4k congestion zone signaled on the chart and this surprised me a bit.
Considering this, I have to update the scenarios presented in that analysis. In fact, I'd like to add a new scenario:
0. I STILL think there is low probability that BTC surpasses the 9.1 ~9.4k congestion zone (strong resistance) right now; BUT I expect a PERIOD OF CONSOLIDATION or a correction. In case of a correction, the question is how deep can BTC go.
In the yestarday analysis I also said: "Low probability is not ZERO probability."
1. The 9.1~9.4k congestion zone is strong, as is the 7.5~8.3k zone. However, the first zone is narrower than the last one. On the other side, the (+/-) 9.4k level is a strong resistance level. BTC may consolidate around this level 9.1~9.4k before it gets a clear path (up or down, see: point 5 below). In case of a period of consolidation (it can be short, just a few days), BTC can reach the 10k level. If not, the analysis presented yestarday will be valid.
2. Considering that a retraction/correction is the most likely scenario (it will be caracterized by a break down the 9.1k level); the first target is the 8.5k level. It is where EMA 18 is placed right now. BTC may re-test this level as support (or more precisely: re-test EMA 18 as support).
3. If EMA 18 do not hold, the next level is EMA 200 (observe: EMA 200 and EMA 50 are converging). Both EMA 200 and EMA 50 are inside a strong congestion zone: the 7.5~8.3k congestion zone. If EMA 200 do not hold, then we can expect that BTC to re-test the 7.5k level as support.
4. In my point of view, we are not in a bear market (see related idea: "BTC: things are clear now"). There is a purple uptrend line that iniciates in feb. 2019 and was tested in nov. 2019, dec. 2019 and jan. 2020. BTC may re-test this line as support. Today, this support is around the 7.2k level. If a new test of that uptrend line occurs and it holds, then things will become more interesting.
ความคิดเห็น:
BTC still acting as expected. A correction towards 8.9 k appears to be a likely scenario, once this is the level that EMA 18 is today.
