If we retrace to fibs from bottom at 15540 then the .618 golden pocked retrace comes in at 26941 and if this is a larger uptrend the .5 fib retrace comes in at 30704. Now if we are doing a local retrace based on local bottom at 25059 the .618 fib is 33028 and the .5 comes in at 35574 assuming we are in an uptrend. There is always the chance that we break out and finally hit the .618 on the upside which comes in at 48634 (roughly 50k area). I see this rally as a bear market rally and don't believe this is a new paradigm. There are all kinds of IRA eligible crypo offerings people could be invested in like GBTC, OBTC, MARA, MSTR, OSTK, COIN and RIOT just to name a few. This thought that an ETF is going to drive us to new ATH's is delusional in my opinion. If 401k's can invest it might help a bit but most of us use personal brokerages to trade crypto and invest in traditional market to balance investments and manage risk. At this time it appears bitcoin is in an island topping pattern.
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Looks like we touched the golden pocket .618 fib. so what's next? From the looks of it we are getting a topping candle right now. I think the ETF marked the top of the market. If we get a full retrace over coming months it will put us around 20 to 23k if it taps the .618 fib retrace.
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Here's the 2018 bear market rally. It ended on the .618 as well.