Bitcoin showing April low movement, but really that easy?

4 มิ.ย. 2018

Finally some real movement again, no big dump yet, but still following that fractal i showed a day or 2 ago. Now i don't expect it to do the exact same thing as we did in the April low. As i mentioned before my view is still more bearish than bullish, but i can't figure out yet if we will see another wave up before making a drop again, or the that the fun is already over. It's clear that inverse H&S is invalidated, as i suspected it would, because there was no conviction at the breakout. But there are several support levels now between the 7100 low and the current price. So there is still a very realistic chance for a new higher low. If we could only see some normal movement instead of moving in 50 points for a whole day and than jumping up 100/200 points or dropping. Whales are hiding their footprints with these moves AND of course their main goal, destroying leveraged traders.

At the moment it's hanging on a support level of a channel, no bounce yet so it might drop below it and continue down again. From the looks of it, that is what will happen. Than we have a big support around 7300/7350. If this breaks we have to assume we drop towards the 7100 low and if bulls don't catch the price there, than the 6700/7000ish level would be the final support level i think, to prevent a very nasty big drop.

When taking Alts in the occasion, they are showing similarities as we did back in April. These almost look they want to make the same play as we did back than. So the overall picture is more neutral than bearish. If Bitcoin is able to stay above the 7500ish now, i think we might see a real move upwards . But the first step for Bitcoin, is to get above the 7600/7650 again.

Starting my previous analysis i said we could rally towards the 7700/7800 before dropping again. It did not follow the path that i thought it would do, but the blame of that are the Alts that were breaking out. This creates more sideways movement on Bitcoin's part, this is to difficult to predict the smaller waves of Bitcoin. So i do not mean that we reached the target and we should drop again, no! What i mean with this is, that level is a clear resistance level, than no matter how we got there, we have to acknowledge that the correction up could be over already.

So for now, i am watching to see a break of 7500ish, if that happens the 7300 must hold for the bulls. Below this level i think we are probably headed below the 7000. If bulls manage to break the 7600/7650, it would be a first good step to continue the rally up again. Good luck


Previous analysis

4 มิ.ย. 2018

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5 มิ.ย. 2018

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So it dropped out of the channel and so far it has found support in that green area around 7350. Still no convincing move up showing a reversal, but if bulls are able to make a push, they might be making an inverse H&S here. But so far there is no sign that bulls are planning this. Think there is a chance we move the whole day between 7350/7500, i give it a bigger chance for a break of 7350 than 7550 at the moment.

Still not much to say further because i can't really say if we are making another wave up before breaking the 7K or that we have already started that move. My view is still bearish for the coming weeks. But if buyers are able to step up, they should do it between the 7150 and the current level. Than they should show a convincing rally of about 200/300 points to begin with, and not a short squeeze, but some real buying!

6 มิ.ย. 2018

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