BITCOIN - This Is THE Short

This should be the inflection point right here. BTC is sitting plumb on the top - bottom 0.618 which is also SOW in D / last support turned resistance.

If BTC breaks down from here it could be years before it gets back to this point.

That said if it did happen to continue up from here it could be explosive. My work tells me this isn't going to happen and price should be done right here or near here, but anyone reading this should do their own DD and decide for themselves.

Waiting to see if price falls back below 0.618 again could be a good idea. It really depends how you trade.

A stop loss would probably be a good idea, but a trader should leave enough room to avoid wicks.

This is not at all advice. It is only my opinion.

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This is not a day trade / 5 min trade. One should be prepared for a degree of fake-out.

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Price is popping right here. Probably a good idea to let it resolve.

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That tiny pump has tagged the last fib in a sequence I have been working on. Good chance the top is in or very nearly in.

See my previous BTC thread for details.

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Price has fallen below long-term 0.618, SOW in D Resistance and also this long-term trendline stretching all the way back to March 2020. Next downside target is SOW in A.

Its looking like a great trade so far, but no smoking gun just yet.

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Notice how price flirts with the 0.618 near the day close. Do you think price will land above or below at midnight?

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Week close*

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So close. Just 5 min to go.

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Whats it gonna be?

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Below. It was a fake-out.

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So thats below for the week.

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It wicks back through.

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Large start of week break to the upside probably just wiped out a lot of short term traders. 💀

But the top minutiae shouldn't make too much difference longer term. This wave is very overextended. That doesn't mean it can't break up again however.

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Wicked through long term 0.618 but above SOW, so there may be a slightly higher UT top.

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This trade is going very well so far.

As you can see the weekend's upward fake-out shenanigans was just a distraction to what happens next. This week's candle looking bearish already. We'll see what it looks like at the end of the week.

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This recent bounce now has 5 waves complete.

Wave 3 and 5 both conform to the standard elliott wave of 1:1.6.8:1 and you can see this where the fibonacci targets have been hit in white @ 1.618 for wave 3 and 2.618 for wave 5.

This 5 wave also completes in the area of a 0.618 retracement from the top and this should complete a B wave retracement.

If correct then price is now entering a C wave down.

If I was going to increase my position I would do it here and for tighter control I might consider a stop above the top.

That said I've already allocated my position.

It will fall from here and that is the power of elliott wave and fibonacci. 💪

Not advice.

Once price makes some conclusion I'll make an elliott wave recap thread.

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Also to note that in your standard textbook B wave retracements are 3 wave ABC's. Not in crypto. 🔥

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Typo: 1:1.618:1 **

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Prce breaking out from topping area, so 1 more leg up will probably now reach a higher high at 48.9K to for a UTAD.

Although the 5 wave reversal was the simpler option its not really surprising to have another leg up here. BTC is a fakeout machine and the longer it tops, the more room there is for alts to go on mad runs.

And herein lies the problem for chartists chancing mad alts gains. How will you know that BTC has enough room across the x axis for you alt to rally? How can you know an alt will recover to form UTAD and not have a major collapse?

And that is why for me those gains need to be made early, not dancing on the trap door. This part of the cycle is for algos and gamblers.

We've seen a succession of 1:0.618's so good chance this last leg will also be 0.618.

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chasing*

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Guys, if you're following my calls then its fairly useless for you if you don't understand my strategy.

I dont really trade against the dominant trend, especially on the trap door.

Some of you do chase bounces and thats fine but thats not really what I'm doing currently. My no.1 focus is protect capital.

When BTC was in the early stages of the bounce I did post some alt longs but the problem with bounces is that when BTC collapses alts get rekt.

So once a BTC regressive wave becomes overextended it is very risky to long shipcoins.

For me I want to get in "cheap and smart." Thats what this short is. I'm short while everyone is looking up.

Trading shipcoins while BTC is threatening to rip to the downside is what I would call "late and dumb." For me it doesn't really matter if you make XYZ% gains in this area here (unless you're an algo) because that trap door is always there and at some point you wil buy the dip and it will be a devastating collapse. The time for making great alt gains was in 2020 to early '21.

I dont need to waste my time and emotion on that. I can patiently wait for BTC to be in a much more opportune moment down the road to buy BTC and ALTS, and in the mean time hold some simple shorts at inflection points such as this.

If you don't like this strategy, please be my guest to do whatever you think the metrics, onchain analysis etc are telling you to do, good luck, and I'll see you at 20K. 🔥

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BTW - looking at some of the comments popping up reminds me also that this site loses top publishers to this what I'd call "pond-life trolling."

BitFInk left and although he said he had his reasons, I'm sure the excessive trolling didnt encourage him to stay.

And that is the somewhat sad thing about the crypto free lunch community. What i'm doing so far is giving my work in a public space for free.

But dont worry, I just think these guys are funny. And they come in all shapes and sizes.

This Truffl wafffl guy in the comments here thinks he's getting some traction. But the only thing he's doing is making a fool of himself.

If you're so upset that you're going to write several essays on my page, so show us a chart Truffl Waffl. I'm sure i'm not the only one that would love to see what you have? Be my guest.

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I'll do an update with some TA when the month closes. Didn't quite hit the bullseye on this one, there was another minor wave up, but trend is looking weak now. There still could potentially be another probe upward but for anyone trading responsibly this is not a problem at all on this long term call.

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Watch to see if the monthly candle close above or below 0.618.

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M candle closes just below the 0.618 inflection point.

September is often a bearish month.

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Price getting quite touchy feely with the 20Dma with many crossings recently.

It looks set to trend under the ma.

What happens next will give us a clue as to what type of breakdown is coming.

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Price making another upthrust. In the previous move price tagged AR resistance but didn't make it to complete the highlighted 1:0.618. That is where the top will be I think $51.5.

Obviously I was a bit early, but I'm sure I wasn't the only short eyeing up the 0.618 and the algos are ever so smart. This trend will be extremely overextended at $51.5 I think and this long term short will work out great,

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Well I was a little early, but I really dont know anyone on the short side that thought price could get to 53K.

Anyhow that enormous sudden collapse shows where the dominant trend is, and by hook or by crook its going back to 20K.

I'll do a TA update on BTC sometime.