2025-01-29 - priceactiontds - daily update - bitcoin

Good Evening and I hope you are well.

comment: Bullish day but still below 105k. Above 105k bulls have no more bigger resistance until 109k but for now the triangle is still valid. It’s not a strong trend or the bars would not overlap so much. Was the move up after the FOMC release from 101600 to 104000 the start of a bigger leg up? Could be. Invalidation for bears is a print above the beginning of the bear leg at 105k. As long as we stay below, bears are ok and we continue sideways inside the triangle.

current market cycle: trading range

key levels: 98k - 109k

bull case: Bulls broke higher after 4 consecutive bearish days but we are still inside the triangle. They closed every bar above the daily 20ema since 14th and that means they are still somewhat favored to move higher. The buying after FOMC was strong enough to expect a second leg up. I do think they need to hold above 103k for that.

Invalidation is below 103k.

bear case: Bears only target is to defend the strong leg down which started at 105k to keep the market at lower highs. Above 105k most have to give up and try to short again higher. Market has not made lower lows since Monday, so bears do not have much going for them here. Best they can hope for is to stay inside the triangle and go sideways.

Invalidation is above 105k.

short term: Neutral 101k - 104k, bullish above 105k and bearish only below 100k.

medium-long term: 75000 is my biggest target for now and until bears get there, any lower target is just unreasonable. My bias is bearish going into 2025 and I think the odds of a bigger leg down are good.

current swing trade: None.

trade of the day: Buying the FOMC low around 101600 or earlier since market printed 3 consecutive bull bars already. Stop had to be 100k anyway.