Bitcoin in echoing bubble - don't miss the last pulse (2nd ver.)
ที่อัปเดต:
(sorry guys had to post this again, TV has horrible issues when posting ideas, see below... that's why the "2nd version" in the title)
LONG TERM
I'm sure this will piss off a lot of people :-), but all that is happenning in Bitcoin since January is that the huge bubble is pulsing, like ping-pong ball off the table, like an echo of a huge impulse. No real rallies, no new demand. It has no intrinsic value; the only value for people in this market is the hope that its price will go up. We are just the same pool of people buying and selling this hope from each other. The same people that bought at lower 6000 in these hopes will hurry to take profit and sell just soon enough before the others do it :-) Because we all know, there is nothing other really bullish going on here. All just the echo of the 2017 bubble.
You don't believe me? You can clearly see the proof in the chart - the May, July and September highs were all just 0.618 retracements of the previous drop (see the LEFT CHART). What happens when this pulsing will stop? The bubble will be finally deflated. It is a question how people will react to this. I think three scenarios are possible:
A) people will give up their hopes and then bitcoin will lose the value why the hold it. The support @ 5700 - 6000 will not hold and we drop further down. From here, new rally may eventually start;
B) some sideways trading and then slow and steady rally;
C) straight to the moon.
No one knows what will happen; my very very subjective and rough estimate is that these chances are 60%, 30%, 10% respectivelly - but again, take them with the grain of salt :-)
Big bitcoin/altcoin fans and hodlers: please also bear (pun intended) in mind that while blockchain is the technology of the future, we cannot be sure which coin will actually be officially accepted; or if banks and governments won't develop their own coins :) Don't be attached only to the bull trading and also learn how to short, you will have much more fun trading and also you will not be attached to a single side of the coin.
SHORT TERM
I believe we are right now in the last pulse, going up to 6900-7000 (see the RIGHT CHART). But first: Did you notice, that every time we drop, we always visit the 5700-6000 support levels, but it didn't happen this time yet? I see two possible scenarios:
1) We go straight to the target 6900-7000, which is around 0.618 Fibonacci retracement of the previous big drop (6920). From here, we drop to our support zone 5700-6000 (GREEN ARROW)
2) We first drop to our support zone at 5700-6000, then go to the target 6900-7000, and then drop back down (BLUE ARROW).
Which scenario will play out, I think will show soon on how we will deal with current resistance at 6600:
* If bulls show weakness and the resistance holds, bears can enter on lower high (see the RIGHT CHART).
* Bulls entering on the current consolidation I think need to be careful. I would take at least partial profit bellow 6600 resistance to lower the potential loss (or make their stop loss under last 4 hour low a breakeven).
* In both scenarios I believe will be a perfect short opportunity at the next pulse high, which I expect at to be at those 6900-7000.
Bulls or bears, trade safe and have a beautiful weekend :-)
Tomas
P.S.: I must admit that I am still learning so be also carefull when you take some advice from me :-D
P.S.: posting this again because TV didn't let me edit the post it in those 15 minutes I had for it, it simply didn't work, neither could I delete it and post again - so it was posted in the form I didn't want it in and I had no control over it at all! This service is just horrible, and I am paying for it! :-/
LONG TERM
I'm sure this will piss off a lot of people :-), but all that is happenning in Bitcoin since January is that the huge bubble is pulsing, like ping-pong ball off the table, like an echo of a huge impulse. No real rallies, no new demand. It has no intrinsic value; the only value for people in this market is the hope that its price will go up. We are just the same pool of people buying and selling this hope from each other. The same people that bought at lower 6000 in these hopes will hurry to take profit and sell just soon enough before the others do it :-) Because we all know, there is nothing other really bullish going on here. All just the echo of the 2017 bubble.
You don't believe me? You can clearly see the proof in the chart - the May, July and September highs were all just 0.618 retracements of the previous drop (see the LEFT CHART). What happens when this pulsing will stop? The bubble will be finally deflated. It is a question how people will react to this. I think three scenarios are possible:
A) people will give up their hopes and then bitcoin will lose the value why the hold it. The support @ 5700 - 6000 will not hold and we drop further down. From here, new rally may eventually start;
B) some sideways trading and then slow and steady rally;
C) straight to the moon.
No one knows what will happen; my very very subjective and rough estimate is that these chances are 60%, 30%, 10% respectivelly - but again, take them with the grain of salt :-)
Big bitcoin/altcoin fans and hodlers: please also bear (pun intended) in mind that while blockchain is the technology of the future, we cannot be sure which coin will actually be officially accepted; or if banks and governments won't develop their own coins :) Don't be attached only to the bull trading and also learn how to short, you will have much more fun trading and also you will not be attached to a single side of the coin.
SHORT TERM
I believe we are right now in the last pulse, going up to 6900-7000 (see the RIGHT CHART). But first: Did you notice, that every time we drop, we always visit the 5700-6000 support levels, but it didn't happen this time yet? I see two possible scenarios:
1) We go straight to the target 6900-7000, which is around 0.618 Fibonacci retracement of the previous big drop (6920). From here, we drop to our support zone 5700-6000 (GREEN ARROW)
2) We first drop to our support zone at 5700-6000, then go to the target 6900-7000, and then drop back down (BLUE ARROW).
Which scenario will play out, I think will show soon on how we will deal with current resistance at 6600:
* If bulls show weakness and the resistance holds, bears can enter on lower high (see the RIGHT CHART).
* Bulls entering on the current consolidation I think need to be careful. I would take at least partial profit bellow 6600 resistance to lower the potential loss (or make their stop loss under last 4 hour low a breakeven).
* In both scenarios I believe will be a perfect short opportunity at the next pulse high, which I expect at to be at those 6900-7000.
Bulls or bears, trade safe and have a beautiful weekend :-)
Tomas
P.S.: I must admit that I am still learning so be also carefull when you take some advice from me :-D
P.S.: posting this again because TV didn't let me edit the post it in those 15 minutes I had for it, it simply didn't work, neither could I delete it and post again - so it was posted in the form I didn't want it in and I had no control over it at all! This service is just horrible, and I am paying for it! :-/
บันทึกช่วยจำ
Notable raise in volume, spike on Bitfinex in last 3 hours. I think we will soon see either a breakout of current resistance, or we will drop down, perhaps to 6200-6300ish. Looking at the orderbooks though, it seems to me that the breakout is less likely, and if it happens, it won't have much followthrough. In case we do drop down, scenario 1 could still be in play. So if you want to enter bearish under resistance now, I would at least take partial profit around those 6300 or whatever level we drop down to, if there are signs we are going back up.
การซื้อขายยังคงดำเนินอยู่
Just entered short on both ETH and BTC. Very small positions though, just for fun. :)บันทึกช่วยจำ
keeping an eye on the chart, thinking to take partial profit of my short positions, if I see a bounce back up. Current situation doesn't look like bounce to me right now though.บันทึกช่วยจำ
BTC is forming a bear flag on 1 min chart, suggesting we might see a drop further down. If we go above 6400, the bear flag is invalidated. The current dip, 6320, is a 0.618 fibonacci retracement of the last rally (6170 - 6586) - this means that if we do not hold this level, we are very likely go down to re-test next support level at 6170 - 6200.ETH, as always, is waiting what BTC will do and copying the moves :-) The levels are less clear though. More steep moves, giving higher potential for profit and loss as well :)
บันทึกช่วยจำ
Keepeng an eye on the chart; if we bounce, I will take partial profit on my short positions on both BTC and ETH. If not, the target for BTC is 6000.Whilr I am writing this it bounced; i took profit on ETH short position, wasnt fast enough to do so for BTC :)
บันทึกช่วยจำ
BTC had spike on bull volume, but I think this will be most likely not a bull flag. My guess is we will not break 6600. I will probably be top fishing for another short entry on BTC.My ETH short position completely closed on the bounce, got nice 8% profit. Is there any follower I can celebrate with? :-)
การซื้อขายยังคงดำเนินอยู่
My sell order to add to my short position was filled at 6485 :) Target above the support 6100-6200.บันทึกช่วยจำ
The Ripple news few days ago messed things up a bit and my top fishing bearish plays on Bitcoin were stopped out with a small loss; I still sit in a nice profit from the closed ETH shorts :-) I will now watch how Bitcoin will behave when it reaches the expected 0.618 fibonacci retracement level of 6900-7000 (if it reaches it). If it shows weakness there, it would be a perfect bearish entry, according to the plan. If Bitcoin can hold these levels and shows strength, the plan is nullified.
By the way, Alessio Rastani now did the very same observation!!! youtube.com/watch?v=9jHQpVPyxJw
PS: do not try to enter bearish on breakouts - they are mostly false breakouts these days! Better strategy is the top fishing entries.
บันทึกช่วยจำ
Now Bitcoin looks it could become short term bullish, if it breaks 6534, watch my new idea here. But I think, unless something changes in the market, it will be only short term and it will provide a good opportunity to enter short, as I predict here :-) 
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