BTCUSD analysis: How to get out of a trap

13 ธ.ค. 2018

BTCUSD
Dear friends,
As you know, when it comes to technical analysis, I’m mostly focused on the study of Gann’s works and their application in the cryptocurrency market.
I’ve already devoted 4 publications to this subject, and it’s just a beginning. The works of this genius are so vast and versatile, that one can write about them for a long time.
My goal isn’t retelling all of his papers, but I will be happy is some of you get interested in his works and start your own study. If you are lucky to open Gann from a new perspective and find what hasn’t yet been covered in my articles, it will be a great victory for you.
Share your discoveries with your friends, share your knowledge with me. Studying and understanding something new together is always more productive and interesting.
Each of us has a chance to contribute to general education and development. It’s quite easy to repost this or any other publication of mine and put a like. It will be the best reward for me.
Thank you for your support and gratitude!
Always yours, Michael @Hyipov
Coming back to Bitcoin forecasts, we see there are strong bullish indicators on all fronts.
Let’s start with the monthly chart.

We may argue ourselves hoarse whether or not Bitcoin reached the bottom, but all seem to share the opinion there will be neither soaring, like in 2017, nor significant fall. The more we compare the current situation with the year 2014, the more similar factors we can find. We see that RSI has been down for over 250 days, which is almost half the distance covered in 2014-2015. On the other hand, the ticker touched the lower limit of the Keltner channel in the M1 chart. Never have such touches gone without retracement in the whole history of Bitcoin, and I don’t find any reasons to expect a different result now.

On the other hand, have a look at the weekly chart. You won’t find a sadder picture. The indicator of frontal volumes gave Bitcoin growth up for lost long ago. Colossus had clay legs and didn’t manage to lay a solid foundation while growing rapidly.
The whole indicator of frontal volume below 6,000 USD looks torn and heterogeneous. It indicates that the growth in 2017 was too swift and impulsive. The market simply inflated with money like a balloon and each inflation resulted in a big surge in the chart of frontal volumes. Now, without the manipulator’s support, Bitcoin is filling the year-ago holes with its own weight. It’s hard to expect organic growth until the holes have been filled. However, Bitcoin still has a year ahead and it doesn’t mean that a fall has to be that serious and straight-line. Finally, the manipulator is still present in the market and feels the wind of change quite well. So, cheer up and follow the market to exploit the earning opportunities that are on the surface.

This logic makes us understand that the market will be filling the holes, building up the volume in the empty segments. Thus, we have trading channels and will be able to trade from their borders.

Now it’s exactly the case when Bitcoin is getting ready for retracement to its upper border. I’ve marked this step with an ascending arrow in the price chart above.

First and foremost, it’s indicated by the bullish divergence of MACD in the daily chart above.

However, this divergence isn’t confirmed in the H4 chart. The chart above shows that the whole bullish mood has been absorbed by the bears. To get out of this bearish trap, a strong divergence is required in the H4 chart. A fall to the zone of 3170-3150 lets us see a bullish divergence on most oscillators available in the market. What’s more, there’s a downward wedge whose breakout from below to at least 4400 suggests itself.
However ironic it may sound, such a fall points to a bullish pattern for all types of technical analysts, that’s why there’s a serious chance of impulse retracement.

To end my half-forecast, half-tale, here’s a chart of Gann levels I’ve been drawing for the past weeks of my study. Actually, it corresponds to the above hypothesis about the necessity of falling before growing. In the chart above, we see that the support level of 3300 USD has been retested with moderate retracement. In general, it’s obvious that this support level won’t stand another strike. The next weekly Gann level is at 3,222 and 3,000 USD. If the fall continues, I don’t believe in any of these levels. 3,222 USD is too close to the current levels and will hardly hold the bears back whereas 3000 USD is a too obvious support level for allowing traders to enter the market. The exit in the form of a long pin with retracement won’t most likely happen below 3150 – 3170. Only this picture guarantees the implementation of the above-mentioned scenario with divergences and reversal patterns on all fronts of technical analysis.
Personally, I think the X point falls on 16th December. Too many Gann levels converge here. These are the end level of annual cycle phase, the long-term analysis level, and the weekly level. So many levels meeting in the same point cannot be wrong. That’s why I’m 99% sure that we will see an impulse around this date.
The time will show the way it’s gonna be. I’m following the market with a great interest and I hope you will be caught up in this sound curiosity after having read my post.
This is my global forecast for BTCUSD for the nearest future. Feel free to read my forecasts for Bitcoin’s rate and for other cryptocurrencies in the blog of traders. We go on following Bitcoin’s rate and keeping track of the cryptocurrency market. I hope my analysis of Bitcoin has been useful for you!
Best regards,
Michael @Hyipov
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