BTC - Potential Scenarios
ที่อัปเดต:
First published idea so take this with a big grain of salt.
In the short term, I see 3 potential scenarios for Bitcoin playing out. These ideas revolve around a convergence of previous supports/resistances, the upper and lower ranges we have been trading between, and the MA 50/200 cross. There's technically a 4th scenario which is we don't test the convergent supports at all and just keep moving higher. Personally I feel this is unlikely to happen and if it did, would signal a trap.
• Scenario 1: Convergent support holds and we begin moving back up towards the BOTTOM of the upper range again.
• Scenario 2: Convergent support fails and we take a quick dive towards the TOP of the lower range and then back up completing an inverse head and shoulders.
• Scenario 3: Convergent support fails and we take a quick dive towards the BOTTOM of the lower range (30k) and then up.
IMO, scenario 3 is most likely and most healthy due to the dreaded "death cross" we're approaching Ultimately, I think the failure of the convergent support with this upcoming cross will signal a much bigger sell off than Scenario 2 can withhold (which explains the massive amount of shorts still sitting on the books). Once these shorts have taken profit, I believe the move upwards will be quick and will possibly happen the day before the cross officially happens.
In the short term, I see 3 potential scenarios for Bitcoin playing out. These ideas revolve around a convergence of previous supports/resistances, the upper and lower ranges we have been trading between, and the MA 50/200 cross. There's technically a 4th scenario which is we don't test the convergent supports at all and just keep moving higher. Personally I feel this is unlikely to happen and if it did, would signal a trap.
• Scenario 1: Convergent support holds and we begin moving back up towards the BOTTOM of the upper range again.
• Scenario 2: Convergent support fails and we take a quick dive towards the TOP of the lower range and then back up completing an inverse head and shoulders.
• Scenario 3: Convergent support fails and we take a quick dive towards the BOTTOM of the lower range (30k) and then up.
IMO, scenario 3 is most likely and most healthy due to the dreaded "death cross" we're approaching Ultimately, I think the failure of the convergent support with this upcoming cross will signal a much bigger sell off than Scenario 2 can withhold (which explains the massive amount of shorts still sitting on the books). Once these shorts have taken profit, I believe the move upwards will be quick and will possibly happen the day before the cross officially happens.
บันทึก
Well it took a bit lot longer to reach the initial target but we finally hit it today and I am able to close my shorts. Any move to the downside from here and I will be looking short to the 33k level keeping in mind that a very large pump is waiting to happen at some point. If you follow me in this trade, it will require proper risk management and a very watchful eye. Very risky trade.ปิดการเทรด: ถึงเป้าหมายการทำกำไร
Wicked down to 33k so I closed my shorts. Looking to slowly add long positions here but keeping an eye out for retest.บันทึก
No long positions added. Bunch of indicators showing themselves pointing to further downward movement. Both crypto and traditional markets. Will be moving back into shorts with scenario 3 as the target.ปิดการเทรด: ถึงเป้าหมายการทำกำไร
All shorts reached and trade closed.
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