Bitcoin Liquid Indexเพิ่มขึ้น
Bitcoin Roadmap 2025
ที่อัปเดต:
It's been a while since I did a Bitcoin TA; I've been focusing on Chainlink mostly these days. Still, I spent the last few days going over everything to come to this conclusion as the most probable outcome next two years . There's a high chance we won't see an all-time high until late 2024.
Like always, it's never easy to predict what Bitcoin is going to do next. You would think that this last cycle, we would have some sort of clear top and clear bottom so we could confidently calculate the next cycle top and bottom. But, in true Bitcoin fashion, we get a mixed bag.
Last Cycle
First time in history, Bitcoin had a double top for a cycle:
- April 2021 - Psychological Top
- November 2021 - Technical Top
The entire market topped out in April 2021; a few coins came in with higher highs later that year.
Something that is crystal clear is that Bitcoin took exactly the same amount of time to go from cycle low to cycle top (1064 days). It also took the same time to get from cycle low exactly 364 days; it was that easy, guys.
So, this is where we arrive at the first cycle top date: October 2025. 1064 days from the cycle low in November 2022 would give you that date.
The next date for a cycle top is August 2025, giving us the cycle top range from August to October 2025. A while back, I published a TA on Bitcoin's volume on a macro scale.
I found very interesting patterns and dates looking into the volume.
As you can see from this updated picture, every time Bitcoin has a bullish cross on volume, it takes 670 days to top. We just had the bullish cross in October this year, so 670 days from the cross would be August 2025.
Whenever Bitcoin breaks the 1/2 Gann, it takes about 924 days till the top. This cycle, we broke the 1/2 Gann in March 2023, so 924 days from March 2023 puts you at September 2025.
It takes about 1400 days from cycle top to top; 1400 days from the November 2021 top would be October 2025.
This insanely powerful time sequence that predicted major Bitcoin events has failed this year for me for the first time; the next two dates are July 2024 and, you guessed it, September 2025.
If you calculate the time when the Gaussian channel turns green to the cycle top and calculate the average, you get 750 days. July 23rd, 2023, we Gaussian turned green; 750 days from that date puts you in the last week of August 2025, basically September 2025.
As you can see, the month September 2025 has a very high chance of being the month Bitcoin has its cycle high, and that would put Bitcoin, according to this model, at 175k.
### The 2024 Playbook
The most likely scenario is one big flush out next year. The Satoshi roundtable most likely is just going to do the classic 50% pullback into the CME gap, right?
Pre-Halving pullback is always deep and ranges from 40-50%! Well, why would they change their playbook? If it works every goddamn time, emotion gets the best of most of the traders and investors like every cycle. This is how I think it's going to play out.
Bitcoin rallies to 0.5-0.618 Fib 40-48k till Mid-December to mid-January 2023 at 48k; Bitcoin ETF gets approved, BULLISH NEWS floods the news and internet. coindesk.com/business/2023/11/08/bitcoin-pushes-towards-36k-ahead-of-last-approval-period-for-spot-etfs-this-year/
Analysts at Bloomberg predict that if a spot bitcoin ETF is not approved in this period, there’s still a 90% chance for approval by Jan. 10."
It is at this point where Bitcoin (40-48k) will reverse and go down to close the CME GAP at 20k and also creating the macro Bitcoin double bottom. It won't be easy to get Bitcoin down to that level, so "FLOOD BEARISH NEWS" is on the table. War, COVID, bank bankruptcies, new Bitcoin laws, new Bitcoin taxes - choose your weapon! When Bitcoin hits that 20k, that's when you load up!
You might think there is no way it's that easy - a 50% pullback to the CME GAP. But tell me if it works every time, why change or stop doing it?
The only comment I would like to make out of this CME gap is that it's the only time in history Bitcoin has closed and opened a gap in the same weekend. I could be wrong, but it seems to be so; if you do find another time, share it below.
So there you have it; will it play out like this? Who knows. One thing for sure is this rally won't last very long now.
Conclusion
- Rally to 40-48k: December 2023 - January 2024
- ETF approval: January 2024
- Reversal to 20k CME GAP by Halving (April 2024)
- Bull Market starts: September to November 2024
- Cycle Top: September 2025 to October 2025
Like always, it's never easy to predict what Bitcoin is going to do next. You would think that this last cycle, we would have some sort of clear top and clear bottom so we could confidently calculate the next cycle top and bottom. But, in true Bitcoin fashion, we get a mixed bag.
Last Cycle
First time in history, Bitcoin had a double top for a cycle:
- April 2021 - Psychological Top
- November 2021 - Technical Top
The entire market topped out in April 2021; a few coins came in with higher highs later that year.
Something that is crystal clear is that Bitcoin took exactly the same amount of time to go from cycle low to cycle top (1064 days). It also took the same time to get from cycle low exactly 364 days; it was that easy, guys.
So, this is where we arrive at the first cycle top date: October 2025. 1064 days from the cycle low in November 2022 would give you that date.
The next date for a cycle top is August 2025, giving us the cycle top range from August to October 2025. A while back, I published a TA on Bitcoin's volume on a macro scale.
I found very interesting patterns and dates looking into the volume.
As you can see from this updated picture, every time Bitcoin has a bullish cross on volume, it takes 670 days to top. We just had the bullish cross in October this year, so 670 days from the cross would be August 2025.
Whenever Bitcoin breaks the 1/2 Gann, it takes about 924 days till the top. This cycle, we broke the 1/2 Gann in March 2023, so 924 days from March 2023 puts you at September 2025.
It takes about 1400 days from cycle top to top; 1400 days from the November 2021 top would be October 2025.
This insanely powerful time sequence that predicted major Bitcoin events has failed this year for me for the first time; the next two dates are July 2024 and, you guessed it, September 2025.
If you calculate the time when the Gaussian channel turns green to the cycle top and calculate the average, you get 750 days. July 23rd, 2023, we Gaussian turned green; 750 days from that date puts you in the last week of August 2025, basically September 2025.
As you can see, the month September 2025 has a very high chance of being the month Bitcoin has its cycle high, and that would put Bitcoin, according to this model, at 175k.
### The 2024 Playbook
The most likely scenario is one big flush out next year. The Satoshi roundtable most likely is just going to do the classic 50% pullback into the CME gap, right?
Pre-Halving pullback is always deep and ranges from 40-50%! Well, why would they change their playbook? If it works every goddamn time, emotion gets the best of most of the traders and investors like every cycle. This is how I think it's going to play out.
Bitcoin rallies to 0.5-0.618 Fib 40-48k till Mid-December to mid-January 2023 at 48k; Bitcoin ETF gets approved, BULLISH NEWS floods the news and internet. coindesk.com/business/2023/11/08/bitcoin-pushes-towards-36k-ahead-of-last-approval-period-for-spot-etfs-this-year/
Analysts at Bloomberg predict that if a spot bitcoin ETF is not approved in this period, there’s still a 90% chance for approval by Jan. 10."
It is at this point where Bitcoin (40-48k) will reverse and go down to close the CME GAP at 20k and also creating the macro Bitcoin double bottom. It won't be easy to get Bitcoin down to that level, so "FLOOD BEARISH NEWS" is on the table. War, COVID, bank bankruptcies, new Bitcoin laws, new Bitcoin taxes - choose your weapon! When Bitcoin hits that 20k, that's when you load up!
You might think there is no way it's that easy - a 50% pullback to the CME GAP. But tell me if it works every time, why change or stop doing it?
The only comment I would like to make out of this CME gap is that it's the only time in history Bitcoin has closed and opened a gap in the same weekend. I could be wrong, but it seems to be so; if you do find another time, share it below.
So there you have it; will it play out like this? Who knows. One thing for sure is this rally won't last very long now.
Conclusion
- Rally to 40-48k: December 2023 - January 2024
- ETF approval: January 2024
- Reversal to 20k CME GAP by Halving (April 2024)
- Bull Market starts: September to November 2024
- Cycle Top: September 2025 to October 2025
บันทึกช่วยจำ
Forgot to add , a 50% pullback to 20k CME GAP would mean Bitcoin would go to 40-41k .บันทึกช่วยจำ
t.me/+8CRZJqXrjwU4ODA0 re-launched telegram group , it is free , just place to chillout talk about crypto bull market , will be posting trades live randomly
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