🔥 Bitcoin Long-Term Analysis: Different Perspective

8 ก.ค. 2021

Before we go into this analysis I want to make clear that I'm still bullish on Bitcoin. Both in the near and distant future. In my opinion, the bull-run is currently seeing a mid-term correction. There will be a point in the coming weeks/months when the bull-run will take off again, and we will see a new ATH for the crypto market.

The goal of this analysis is to shed a different light on Bitcoin. Whereas most of my Bitcoin ideas have been rather bullish, there's also a chance that we've seen the top of the current bull-run. I'd like to explore that idea via this analysis.

Almost three months ago I made the analysis above. In this analysis I argued that the 60k-65k area is located at the resistance of the curved logarithmic resistance line, which could indicate that the top has formed and a bearish period was soon to arrive. In retrospect, this analysis pin-pointed the top to the week.

Looking at the chart, every time that the logarithmic resistance line has been hit it caused a >80% drop in value from top to bottom. If we were to see another long term bleed like before, this would indicate that were facing a long period of bearish decline towards ~13k, give or take a few thousand.



In case we see a drop of the aforementioned magnitude, we should be prepared to see alts decline by 90%-95% from their ATH value (some even more) over this period. Bear markets are notorious alt killers, with some never recovering.

This analysis is made with logarithmic curved trend lines. Curved lines are susceptible to interpretation and placement, especially on logarithmic charts. Nevertheless, I think this analysis is valuable to the discussion about the future of crypto, even if some people don't want to hear it.

Happy trading!