1st Nov ’23 Perfect day for 9:20 straddlers BankNifty PostMortem
BankNifty Weekly Expiry Analysis
Between the last expiry and today, BankNifty has managed to climb 432pts ~ 1.02%. It has also managed to trade above the support/resistance of 42576. This retracement could be seen as a lower-high formation for continued selling pressure. For proof, we would need to see the 42576 getting knocked out in the upcoming sessions.
BankNifty Today Analysis
Unexpected, but Banknifty had a perfectly neutral price action today. Most of the trades were carried out between 42770 & 42643 today i.e. a swing range of 127pts. I can say with 70% confidence that the major reason Nifty50 did not take out its support was due to lack of participation from BankNifty today.
BN only fell 0.34% today vs Nifty which fell 0.47%. BankNifty had a gap down open and its close was almost at the same level. There were 2 attempts to fall, the best one was between 12.30 to 13.15 - but the support of 42576 was respected.
Being the expiry today - a flattish BankNifty would have filled the pocket of the straddlers. It is not that common to get textbook-like straddle conditions. My personal trades in BankNifty did not last long as the premiums were dropping pretty quickly. I switched back to Nifty50 when its OTM had juice left. Also, remember - when the index is perfectly flat with no volatility - the OTM premiums will be pretty low.
I have highlighted the support/resistance points that are crowded around the spot in blue color. Till 42576 is not broken, I cannot go bearish. Not just that, it has to take out the swing low of 42105 on the same day 42576 is taken out - just to ensure that the momentum is good enough.
Between the last expiry and today, BankNifty has managed to climb 432pts ~ 1.02%. It has also managed to trade above the support/resistance of 42576. This retracement could be seen as a lower-high formation for continued selling pressure. For proof, we would need to see the 42576 getting knocked out in the upcoming sessions.
BankNifty Today Analysis
Unexpected, but Banknifty had a perfectly neutral price action today. Most of the trades were carried out between 42770 & 42643 today i.e. a swing range of 127pts. I can say with 70% confidence that the major reason Nifty50 did not take out its support was due to lack of participation from BankNifty today.
BN only fell 0.34% today vs Nifty which fell 0.47%. BankNifty had a gap down open and its close was almost at the same level. There were 2 attempts to fall, the best one was between 12.30 to 13.15 - but the support of 42576 was respected.
Being the expiry today - a flattish BankNifty would have filled the pocket of the straddlers. It is not that common to get textbook-like straddle conditions. My personal trades in BankNifty did not last long as the premiums were dropping pretty quickly. I switched back to Nifty50 when its OTM had juice left. Also, remember - when the index is perfectly flat with no volatility - the OTM premiums will be pretty low.
I have highlighted the support/resistance points that are crowded around the spot in blue color. Till 42576 is not broken, I cannot go bearish. Not just that, it has to take out the swing low of 42105 on the same day 42576 is taken out - just to ensure that the momentum is good enough.
