Bears in control with $ASML

The bears remain in control of ASML, with declining prices and rising volume signaling distribution pressure. The horizontal trading range around the 2024 highs looks like a classic distribution phase, leading to the current downtrend.

At the moment, ASML is testing the 0.786 Fib retracement (2021 high – 2022 low). I expect this level to fail and the downtrend to continue. My projected scenario shows a move down into the marked buy zone, which aligns with both key Fib levels and long-term channel support.

In this area, buyers may begin to absorb the previously distributed shares, setting the stage for a new accumulation phase and a potential trend reversal.

Fundamentally, ASML remains a top-tier asset with a dominant position in EUV lithography. That’s why I plan to accumulate if the buy zone is reached. If the zone fails, the next major support lies around 430.