HYPERWAVES. Amazon and Bitcoin live examples.
ที่อัปเดต:
Hyperwaves are a subset of bubbles, there are MASSIVE bubbles.
When I saw this was made public I whined inside because it means then it stops working, but the wall street market cycle thing has been available for a while, and it still works PERFECTLY. PERFECTLY. It is as if the more information is made available, the more people fall for the same mistakes again and again. Some self fulfilling prophecy by the hands of whales? (That got big by being good and following the rules).
The rules about Hyperwaves are basically:
* Must look at weekly charts. And draw trendlines. Nothing else. Weekly closes have to be above every phase trendline (except 1 of course).
* Once you are at Phase 3, a Hyperwave is very likely.
* By Phase 4-5 it is almost certain. As 5 starts... It is important to get in early when a bubble goes exponential, and stay in as long as weekly closes remain above the bubble hypermove up trendline, which can last for weeks. Amazon went up > 100%, that's low, alot of things go even more up. Everything is relative thought. Things that go up more often mean your risk is bigger so you go in smaller anyway... Crypto's went up massively, but the downside was very important too (crypto ATR is 10 times that of FX or more). Bitcoin phase 5 only lasted a few weeks... It can last months.
* When you have phase 5, you have a hyperwave. 100% sure.
* In 20% cases, the hyperwave is a "funky hyperwave" (I am not the one that choose the name), which will bounce on phase 2 trendline. 20% odds.
* In 100% of cases according to the creator of this theory (which anyone can backtest on the few hundreds of examples available...),
if phase 2 does not hold, the price goes back to phase 1. After that it is the end of the hyperwave. Can bounce on 1, can go below, can make another hyperwave a few decades later...
Here is an example:
An example of the majority of cases, with a recent one which is very interesting, Bitcoin, my 2nd favorite chart after the almighty DOW:
If you look at a tulip chart you can see phases 1 to 4 and 7, the bounce (6) is missing, but I am sure it happened, it is just not represented.
I want to find more info on the past, would be wonderful to see this in really old things... Not just in the past 100 years but the past millenia's. Would be amazing to me.
A few more examples:
These are the ones I know...There are supposed to be a few hundred examples... The creator has a channel, maybe there is more.
Even 2-3 hundred is not that much, well it is starting to be decent if there really are that many.
The problem with this is if there are only a few dozen examples... Well it gives an idea of what to expect, and buying and staying in as long as we are above trendline is always good anyway.
What is almost certain is:
Amazon going to (2).
Bitcoin going to sub $2000.
I might have made some mistakes I do not know the details I am by no means an expert on this thing, but I find this interesting and might add it to my arsenal over the next few years (My expertise is on Denial & capitulation following a period of complacency uniquely, which are waves 4 - denial - 5 capitulation and ABC - bounce following capitulation).
If you want to learn more on Hyperwaves, Tyler Jenks is the inventor of this method and backtested it extensively, since 1929 (Down Jones <3). He has been making money since the 70's with this method, keeping it secret, and now that he is past 60 years old he is just sharing it with every one he just does not care anymore.
So, for Amazon, is his wife going to sell? That would make a big wave 7 ;)
And for Bitcoin. God I wish there were options to bet on the price of Bitcoin ending at 1000 ish. Warren Buffet would have shorted the entire supply thought so...
VERY IMPORTANT: Want to hear something funny? Some financial advisor of sorts told me his clients 1 year ago could not stop ask him about crypto. Any presentation/meeting, there would be a crypto question. 1 year ago...
Lately, it has been the same with FANG stocks.
You know what this means ;) Textbook.
When I saw this was made public I whined inside because it means then it stops working, but the wall street market cycle thing has been available for a while, and it still works PERFECTLY. PERFECTLY. It is as if the more information is made available, the more people fall for the same mistakes again and again. Some self fulfilling prophecy by the hands of whales? (That got big by being good and following the rules).
The rules about Hyperwaves are basically:
* Must look at weekly charts. And draw trendlines. Nothing else. Weekly closes have to be above every phase trendline (except 1 of course).
* Once you are at Phase 3, a Hyperwave is very likely.
* By Phase 4-5 it is almost certain. As 5 starts... It is important to get in early when a bubble goes exponential, and stay in as long as weekly closes remain above the bubble hypermove up trendline, which can last for weeks. Amazon went up > 100%, that's low, alot of things go even more up. Everything is relative thought. Things that go up more often mean your risk is bigger so you go in smaller anyway... Crypto's went up massively, but the downside was very important too (crypto ATR is 10 times that of FX or more). Bitcoin phase 5 only lasted a few weeks... It can last months.
* When you have phase 5, you have a hyperwave. 100% sure.
* In 20% cases, the hyperwave is a "funky hyperwave" (I am not the one that choose the name), which will bounce on phase 2 trendline. 20% odds.
* In 100% of cases according to the creator of this theory (which anyone can backtest on the few hundreds of examples available...),
if phase 2 does not hold, the price goes back to phase 1. After that it is the end of the hyperwave. Can bounce on 1, can go below, can make another hyperwave a few decades later...
Here is an example:
An example of the majority of cases, with a recent one which is very interesting, Bitcoin, my 2nd favorite chart after the almighty DOW:
If you look at a tulip chart you can see phases 1 to 4 and 7, the bounce (6) is missing, but I am sure it happened, it is just not represented.
I want to find more info on the past, would be wonderful to see this in really old things... Not just in the past 100 years but the past millenia's. Would be amazing to me.
A few more examples:
These are the ones I know...There are supposed to be a few hundred examples... The creator has a channel, maybe there is more.
Even 2-3 hundred is not that much, well it is starting to be decent if there really are that many.
The problem with this is if there are only a few dozen examples... Well it gives an idea of what to expect, and buying and staying in as long as we are above trendline is always good anyway.
What is almost certain is:
Amazon going to (2).
Bitcoin going to sub $2000.
I might have made some mistakes I do not know the details I am by no means an expert on this thing, but I find this interesting and might add it to my arsenal over the next few years (My expertise is on Denial & capitulation following a period of complacency uniquely, which are waves 4 - denial - 5 capitulation and ABC - bounce following capitulation).
If you want to learn more on Hyperwaves, Tyler Jenks is the inventor of this method and backtested it extensively, since 1929 (Down Jones <3). He has been making money since the 70's with this method, keeping it secret, and now that he is past 60 years old he is just sharing it with every one he just does not care anymore.
So, for Amazon, is his wife going to sell? That would make a big wave 7 ;)
And for Bitcoin. God I wish there were options to bet on the price of Bitcoin ending at 1000 ish. Warren Buffet would have shorted the entire supply thought so...
VERY IMPORTANT: Want to hear something funny? Some financial advisor of sorts told me his clients 1 year ago could not stop ask him about crypto. Any presentation/meeting, there would be a crypto question. 1 year ago...
Lately, it has been the same with FANG stocks.
You know what this means ;) Textbook.
บันทึกช่วยจำ
And for my own analysis using the system invented by me.This is my view on things:
Depending on what happens the next few months. Approximative too. Very.
Ye screw stocks they are too approximative XD
If there is a slow down (Made clear by clean obvious RSI bullish divergence for example) around this denial area thought, might be good to go long. Capitulation long around trendline. I don't think there will be a nice obvious slowdown...
I prefer stick to FX Commodities Crypto mainly for my bread and butter trading.
For Bitcoin, well I already post alot of it. Going to scale in, with the bulk around $1800, and also have alot of fishing orders on kraken because they so often have slippage, as low as a few dollars might get reversed, but probably not :}. The buy area is $900 to $2000. Would be amazed if price went below 900 and not just flash crash.
บันทึกช่วยจำ
If I am correct Amazon traded volume went up exponentially and it is now on average the most traded stock with 10 billion us dollar daily, about the same as Bitcoin.I am going to make a script for returning daily volumes in dollars (if it does not already exist).
A way to know if a bubble is really a bubble or "at its peak" is looking at volumes, it makes it really obvious.
Bitcoin is the best example. In 2011 and 2014 people were comparing Bitcoin to global bubbles. The volume was in 2014 10 to 50 million! More like Beanie Babies!
During the 2011 Bitcoin "bubble" volumes were of a few thousands Bitcoin a day with $10 per Bitcoin as price on average. Are you serious? A bubble? A very big increase in price maybe. Like it was mainstream lol. A veteran trader could single handedly triple the price and quadruple the volume.
Plus of course there are not all the market cycles, there are not all the "hyperwave phases" as the guy that invented that name/type of bubble calls it.
It is just something new and very small that starts being traded and goes up in price straight up after MtGox opens.
And of course, just as dumb, are the people that call it "not a bubble" now and "last time they said" and "last time they were wrong". How is Bitcoin not mainstream and not a bubble now? The volumes went up to 15 BILLION. Still high, now crypto as a whole has a volume of I think about 30 billion on average, almost as much as Oil. Oil is big you know... Crypto is bigger than all of agriculture futures, it is bigger than industrial metals trading. So it is big, and with all kinds of whales joining...
What kind of argument is that lol "people were wrong in 2011 & 2014 so it is guarenteed the price will go higher once more". They all are wrong. 2011 and 2014 were nothing big. 2017 was very big and THIS time Bitcoin was REALLY a bubble.
Can you imagine SUGAR was in a bubble in the past? I wonder if they are fools that are sure it is going to come back cringe.
If anyone knows how I can get volumes for sugar I am interested...
If Bitcoin was *really* a bubble in 2011/2014 then Helios & Matheson was in a bubble too, not just some shitstock pump and dump
1 thing is certain. That 18 year old "financial genius" that gives people advice on how to invest will not be giving much advice in 10 years :}
"Let your winners run guys". So I can cash out and you are left holding worthless bags.
I wonder what their opinion is of the "weak hands" that abandonned ship when Bitcoin was at 16,000$ now that the price got halved three times in a row?
Well , amazon turn now
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