APPL could repeat previous trend of strong weekly RSI reversals

19 เม.ย.

Apple has in the past six years had very strong reversals from oversold RSI on the weekly timeframe. The last four since 2020 were as such:

Feb 20 - Mar 20

82 > 54 > 100 (85% return low to high)

Jan 22 - May 22

182 > 128 > 175 (40% low to high)

Aug 22 - Jan 23

177 > 123 > 199 (61% low to high)

Dec 23 - ???

197 > 165 > ???

We have last shown a strong support at 165 formed in October 2023. I am expecting Apple to test this support and either come to 160 or go on a very strong push up.

The catalysts to support this movement include earnings on May 2nd, as well as the earnings reports for much of big tech from April 22 - 26. WWDC is expected to be a very big one for Apple. AI is confirmed to be a large point of excitement. If Apple can follow through on delivering something that can be shown to provide a fresh take on their products that will make it hard for current users to not upgrade, than we could see the largest cycle of the iPhone ever seen.

Price target for Apple sits at 250 EOY, with 200 reached by this summer for WWDC.

Positions:

225 Apple shares at 181 average
37 235 Call contracts for Jan 17 2024
3 215 Call contracts for Jan 17 2024

5 พ.ค.

ปิดการเทรด ด้วยตนเอง

I have exited the trade Friday for an overall 13% profit on the position.
I am expecting the stock to have a pullback of some level in the days leading to the WWDC on June 7th. So in the meantime I am going to be executing trades elsewhere and holding onto cash.
Still bullish on apple, will re-enter trade near end of the month.