Growth DashboardThe Multi-Year Growth Dashboard provides a high-level snapshot of an asset’s historical performance directly on your chart. It calculates the total percentage growth for 1-year, 3-year, and 5-year periods based on exact calendar dates.
Unlike simple bar-counting scripts, this indicator uses a "Time-Capsule" logic:
- Calendar Precision: It calculates specific timestamps for 365, 1,095, and 1,825 days ago.
- Persistent Memory: Using the var keyword, the script scans historical bars and "captures" the closing price as it crosses those specific dates.
- Dividend Adjustment: It respects the chart's ADJ (Adjusted for Dividends) toggle, ensuring your total return figures are accurate for stocks like AAPL or MSFT.
Statistics
Adaptive Market Wave TheoryAdaptive Market Wave Theory
🌊 CORE INNOVATION: PROBABILISTIC PHASE DETECTION WITH MULTI-AGENT CONSENSUS
Adaptive Market Wave Theory (AMWT) represents a fundamental paradigm shift in how traders approach market phase identification. Rather than counting waves subjectively or drawing static breakout levels, AMWT treats the market as a hidden state machine —using Hidden Markov Models, multi-agent consensus systems, and reinforcement learning algorithms to quantify what traditional methods leave to interpretation.
The Wave Analysis Problem:
Traditional wave counting methodologies (Elliott Wave, harmonic patterns, ABC corrections) share fatal weaknesses that AMWT directly addresses:
1. Non-Falsifiability : Invalid wave counts can always be "recounted" or "adjusted." If your Wave 3 fails, it becomes "Wave 3 of a larger degree" or "actually Wave C." There's no objective failure condition.
2. Observer Bias : Two expert wave analysts examining the same chart routinely reach different conclusions. This isn't a feature—it's a fundamental methodology flaw.
3. No Confidence Measure : Traditional analysis says "This IS Wave 3." But with what probability? 51%? 95%? The binary nature prevents proper position sizing and risk management.
4. Static Rules : Fixed Fibonacci ratios and wave guidelines cannot adapt to changing market regimes. What worked in 2019 may fail in 2024.
5. No Accountability : Wave methodologies rarely track their own performance. There's no feedback loop to improve.
The AMWT Solution:
AMWT addresses each limitation through rigorous mathematical frameworks borrowed from speech recognition, machine learning, and reinforcement learning:
• Non-Falsifiability → Hard Invalidation : Wave hypotheses die permanently when price violates calculated invalidation levels. No recounting allowed.
• Observer Bias → Multi-Agent Consensus : Three independent analytical agents must agree. Single-methodology bias is eliminated.
• No Confidence → Probabilistic States : Every market state has a calculated probability from Hidden Markov Model inference. "72% probability of impulse state" replaces "This is Wave 3."
• Static Rules → Adaptive Learning : Thompson Sampling multi-armed bandits learn which agents perform best in current conditions. The system adapts in real-time.
• No Accountability → Performance Tracking : Comprehensive statistics track every signal's outcome. The system knows its own performance.
The Core Insight:
"Traditional wave analysis asks 'What count is this?' AMWT asks 'What is the probability we are in an impulsive state, with what confidence, confirmed by how many independent methodologies, and anchored to what liquidity event?'"
🔬 THEORETICAL FOUNDATION: HIDDEN MARKOV MODELS
Why Hidden Markov Models?
Markets exist in hidden states that we cannot directly observe—only their effects on price are visible. When the market is in an "impulse up" state, we see rising prices, expanding volume, and trending indicators. But we don't observe the state itself—we infer it from observables.
This is precisely the problem Hidden Markov Models (HMMs) solve. Originally developed for speech recognition (inferring words from sound waves), HMMs excel at estimating hidden states from noisy observations.
HMM Components:
1. Hidden States (S) : The unobservable market conditions
2. Observations (O) : What we can measure (price, volume, indicators)
3. Transition Matrix (A) : Probability of moving between states
4. Emission Matrix (B) : Probability of observations given each state
5. Initial Distribution (π) : Starting state probabilities
AMWT's Six Market States:
State 0: IMPULSE_UP
• Definition: Strong bullish momentum with high participation
• Observable Signatures: Rising prices, expanding volume, RSI >60, price above upper Bollinger Band, MACD histogram positive and rising
• Typical Duration: 5-20 bars depending on timeframe
• What It Means: Institutional buying pressure, trend acceleration phase
State 1: IMPULSE_DN
• Definition: Strong bearish momentum with high participation
• Observable Signatures: Falling prices, expanding volume, RSI <40, price below lower Bollinger Band, MACD histogram negative and falling
• Typical Duration: 5-20 bars (often shorter than bullish impulses—markets fall faster)
• What It Means: Institutional selling pressure, panic or distribution acceleration
State 2: CORRECTION
• Definition: Counter-trend consolidation with declining momentum
• Observable Signatures: Sideways or mild counter-trend movement, contracting volume, RSI returning toward 50, Bollinger Bands narrowing
• Typical Duration: 8-30 bars
• What It Means: Profit-taking, digestion of prior move, potential accumulation for next leg
State 3: ACCUMULATION
• Definition: Base-building near lows where informed participants absorb supply
• Observable Signatures: Price near recent lows but not making new lows, volume spikes on up bars, RSI showing positive divergence, tight range
• Typical Duration: 15-50 bars
• What It Means: Smart money buying from weak hands, preparing for markup phase
State 4: DISTRIBUTION
• Definition: Top-forming near highs where informed participants distribute holdings
• Observable Signatures: Price near recent highs but struggling to advance, volume spikes on down bars, RSI showing negative divergence, widening range
• Typical Duration: 15-50 bars
• What It Means: Smart money selling to late buyers, preparing for markdown phase
State 5: TRANSITION
• Definition: Regime change period with mixed signals and elevated uncertainty
• Observable Signatures: Conflicting indicators, whipsaw price action, no clear momentum, high volatility without direction
• Typical Duration: 5-15 bars
• What It Means: Market deciding next direction, dangerous for directional trades
The Transition Matrix:
The transition matrix A captures the probability of moving from one state to another. AMWT initializes with empirically-derived values then updates online:
From/To IMP_UP IMP_DN CORR ACCUM DIST TRANS
IMP_UP 0.70 0.02 0.20 0.02 0.04 0.02
IMP_DN 0.02 0.70 0.20 0.04 0.02 0.02
CORR 0.15 0.15 0.50 0.10 0.10 0.00
ACCUM 0.30 0.05 0.15 0.40 0.05 0.05
DIST 0.05 0.30 0.15 0.05 0.40 0.05
TRANS 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.15 0.15 0.10
Key Insights from Transition Probabilities:
• Impulse states are sticky (70% self-transition): Once trending, markets tend to continue
• Corrections can transition to either impulse direction (15% each): The next move after correction is uncertain
• Accumulation strongly favors IMP_UP transition (30%): Base-building leads to rallies
• Distribution strongly favors IMP_DN transition (30%): Topping leads to declines
The Viterbi Algorithm:
Given a sequence of observations, how do we find the most likely state sequence? This is the Viterbi algorithm—dynamic programming to find the optimal path through the state space.
Mathematical Formulation:
δ_t(j) = max_i × B_j(O_t)
Where:
δ_t(j) = probability of most likely path ending in state j at time t
A_ij = transition probability from state i to state j
B_j(O_t) = emission probability of observation O_t given state j
AMWT Implementation:
AMWT runs Viterbi over a rolling window (default 50 bars), computing the most likely state sequence and extracting:
• Current state estimate
• State confidence (probability of current state vs alternatives)
• State sequence for pattern detection
Online Learning (Baum-Welch Adaptation):
Unlike static HMMs, AMWT continuously updates its transition and emission matrices based on observed market behavior:
f_onlineUpdateHMM(prev_state, curr_state, observation, decay) =>
// Update transition matrix
A *= decay
A += (1.0 - decay)
// Renormalize row
// Update emission matrix
B *= decay
B += (1.0 - decay)
// Renormalize row
The decay parameter (default 0.85) controls adaptation speed:
• Higher decay (0.95): Slower adaptation, more stable, better for consistent markets
• Lower decay (0.80): Faster adaptation, more reactive, better for regime changes
Why This Matters for Trading:
Traditional indicators give you a number (RSI = 72). AMWT gives you a probabilistic state assessment :
"There is a 78% probability we are in IMPULSE_UP state, with 15% probability of CORRECTION and 7% distributed among other states. The transition matrix suggests 70% chance of remaining in IMPULSE_UP next bar, 20% chance of transitioning to CORRECTION."
This enables:
• Position sizing by confidence : 90% confidence = full size; 60% confidence = half size
• Risk management by transition probability : High correction probability = tighten stops
• Strategy selection by state : IMPULSE = trend-follow; CORRECTION = wait; ACCUMULATION = scale in
🎰 THE 3-BANDIT CONSENSUS SYSTEM
The Multi-Agent Philosophy:
No single analytical methodology works in all market conditions. Trend-following excels in trending markets but gets chopped in ranges. Mean-reversion excels in ranges but gets crushed in trends. Structure-based analysis works when structure is clear but fails in chaotic markets.
AMWT's solution: employ three independent agents , each analyzing the market from a different perspective, then use Thompson Sampling to learn which agents perform best in current conditions.
Agent 1: TREND AGENT
Philosophy : Markets trend. Follow the trend until it ends.
Analytical Components:
• EMA Alignment: EMA8 > EMA21 > EMA50 (bullish) or inverse (bearish)
• MACD Histogram: Direction and rate of change
• Price Momentum: Close relative to ATR-normalized movement
• VWAP Position: Price above/below volume-weighted average price
Signal Generation:
Strong Bull: EMA aligned bull AND MACD histogram > 0 AND momentum > 0.3 AND close > VWAP
→ Signal: +1 (Long), Confidence: 0.75 + |momentum| × 0.4
Moderate Bull: EMA stack bull AND MACD rising AND momentum > 0.1
→ Signal: +1 (Long), Confidence: 0.65 + |momentum| × 0.3
Strong Bear: EMA aligned bear AND MACD histogram < 0 AND momentum < -0.3 AND close < VWAP
→ Signal: -1 (Short), Confidence: 0.75 + |momentum| × 0.4
Moderate Bear: EMA stack bear AND MACD falling AND momentum < -0.1
→ Signal: -1 (Short), Confidence: 0.65 + |momentum| × 0.3
When Trend Agent Excels:
• Trend days (IB extension >1.5x)
• Post-breakout continuation
• Institutional accumulation/distribution phases
When Trend Agent Fails:
• Range-bound markets (ADX <20)
• Chop zones after volatility spikes
• Reversal days at major levels
Agent 2: REVERSION AGENT
Philosophy: Markets revert to mean. Extreme readings reverse.
Analytical Components:
• Bollinger Band Position: Distance from bands, percent B
• RSI Extremes: Overbought (>70) and oversold (<30)
• Stochastic: %K/%D crossovers at extremes
• Band Squeeze: Bollinger Band width contraction
Signal Generation:
Oversold Bounce: BB %B < 0.20 AND RSI < 35 AND Stochastic < 25
→ Signal: +1 (Long), Confidence: 0.70 + (30 - RSI) × 0.01
Overbought Fade: BB %B > 0.80 AND RSI > 65 AND Stochastic > 75
→ Signal: -1 (Short), Confidence: 0.70 + (RSI - 70) × 0.01
Squeeze Fire Bull: Band squeeze ending AND close > upper band
→ Signal: +1 (Long), Confidence: 0.65
Squeeze Fire Bear: Band squeeze ending AND close < lower band
→ Signal: -1 (Short), Confidence: 0.65
When Reversion Agent Excels:
• Rotation days (price stays within IB)
• Range-bound consolidation
• After extended moves without pullback
When Reversion Agent Fails:
• Strong trend days (RSI can stay overbought for days)
• Breakout moves
• News-driven directional moves
Agent 3: STRUCTURE AGENT
Philosophy: Market structure reveals institutional intent. Follow the smart money.
Analytical Components:
• Break of Structure (BOS): Price breaks prior swing high/low
• Change of Character (CHOCH): First break against prevailing trend
• Higher Highs/Higher Lows: Bullish structure
• Lower Highs/Lower Lows: Bearish structure
• Liquidity Sweeps: Stop runs that reverse
Signal Generation:
BOS Bull: Price breaks above prior swing high with momentum
→ Signal: +1 (Long), Confidence: 0.70 + structure_strength × 0.2
CHOCH Bull: First higher low after downtrend, breaking structure
→ Signal: +1 (Long), Confidence: 0.75
BOS Bear: Price breaks below prior swing low with momentum
→ Signal: -1 (Short), Confidence: 0.70 + structure_strength × 0.2
CHOCH Bear: First lower high after uptrend, breaking structure
→ Signal: -1 (Short), Confidence: 0.75
Liquidity Sweep Long: Price sweeps below swing low then reverses strongly
→ Signal: +1 (Long), Confidence: 0.80
Liquidity Sweep Short: Price sweeps above swing high then reverses strongly
→ Signal: -1 (Short), Confidence: 0.80
When Structure Agent Excels:
• After liquidity grabs (stop runs)
• At major swing points
• During institutional accumulation/distribution
When Structure Agent Fails:
• Choppy, structureless markets
• During news events (structure becomes noise)
• Very low timeframes (noise overwhelms structure)
Thompson Sampling: The Bandit Algorithm
With three agents giving potentially different signals, how do we decide which to trust? This is the multi-armed bandit problem —balancing exploitation (using what works) with exploration (testing alternatives).
Thompson Sampling Solution:
Each agent maintains a Beta distribution representing its success/failure history:
Agent success rate modeled as Beta(α, β)
Where:
α = number of successful signals + 1
β = number of failed signals + 1
On Each Bar:
1. Sample from each agent's Beta distribution
2. Weight agent signals by sampled probabilities
3. Combine weighted signals into consensus
4. Update α/β based on trade outcomes
Mathematical Implementation:
// Beta sampling via Gamma ratio method
f_beta_sample(alpha, beta) =>
g1 = f_gamma_sample(alpha)
g2 = f_gamma_sample(beta)
g1 / (g1 + g2)
// Thompson Sampling selection
for each agent:
sampled_prob = f_beta_sample(agent.alpha, agent.beta)
weight = sampled_prob / sum(all_sampled_probs)
consensus += agent.signal × agent.confidence × weight
Why Thompson Sampling?
• Automatic Exploration : Agents with few samples get occasional chances (high variance in Beta distribution)
• Bayesian Optimal : Mathematically proven optimal solution to exploration-exploitation tradeoff
• Uncertainty-Aware : Small sample size = more exploration; large sample size = more exploitation
• Self-Correcting : Poor performers naturally get lower weights over time
Example Evolution:
Day 1 (Initial):
Trend Agent: Beta(1,1) → samples ~0.50 (high uncertainty)
Reversion Agent: Beta(1,1) → samples ~0.50 (high uncertainty)
Structure Agent: Beta(1,1) → samples ~0.50 (high uncertainty)
After 50 Signals:
Trend Agent: Beta(28,23) → samples ~0.55 (moderate confidence)
Reversion Agent: Beta(18,33) → samples ~0.35 (underperforming)
Structure Agent: Beta(32,19) → samples ~0.63 (outperforming)
Result: Structure Agent now receives highest weight in consensus
Consensus Requirements by Mode:
Aggressive Mode:
• Minimum 1/3 agents agreeing
• Consensus threshold: 45%
• Use case: More signals, higher risk tolerance
Balanced Mode:
• Minimum 2/3 agents agreeing
• Consensus threshold: 55%
• Use case: Standard trading
Conservative Mode:
• Minimum 2/3 agents agreeing
• Consensus threshold: 65%
• Use case: Higher quality, fewer signals
Institutional Mode:
• Minimum 2/3 agents agreeing
• Consensus threshold: 75%
• Additional: Session quality >0.65, mode adjustment +0.10
• Use case: Highest quality signals only
🌀 INTELLIGENT CHOP DETECTION ENGINE
The Chop Problem:
Most trading losses occur not from being wrong about direction, but from trading in conditions where direction doesn't exist . Choppy, range-bound markets generate false signals from every methodology—trend-following, mean-reversion, and structure-based alike.
AMWT's chop detection engine identifies these low-probability environments before signals fire, preventing the most damaging trades.
Five-Factor Chop Analysis:
Factor 1: ADX Component (25% weight)
ADX (Average Directional Index) measures trend strength regardless of direction.
ADX < 15: Very weak trend (high chop score)
ADX 15-20: Weak trend (moderate chop score)
ADX 20-25: Developing trend (low chop score)
ADX > 25: Strong trend (minimal chop score)
adx_chop = (i_adxThreshold - adx_val) / i_adxThreshold × 100
Why ADX Works: ADX synthesizes +DI and -DI movements. Low ADX means price is moving but not directionally—the definition of chop.
Factor 2: Choppiness Index (25% weight)
The Choppiness Index measures price efficiency using the ratio of ATR sum to price range:
CI = 100 × LOG10(SUM(ATR, n) / (Highest - Lowest)) / LOG10(n)
CI > 61.8: Choppy (range-bound, inefficient movement)
CI < 38.2: Trending (directional, efficient movement)
CI 38.2-61.8: Transitional
chop_idx_score = (ci_val - 38.2) / (61.8 - 38.2) × 100
Why Choppiness Index Works: In trending markets, price covers distance efficiently (low ATR sum relative to range). In choppy markets, price oscillates wildly but goes nowhere (high ATR sum relative to range).
Factor 3: Range Compression (20% weight)
Compares recent range to longer-term range, detecting volatility squeezes:
recent_range = Highest(20) - Lowest(20)
longer_range = Highest(50) - Lowest(50)
compression = 1 - (recent_range / longer_range)
compression > 0.5: Strong squeeze (potential breakout imminent)
compression < 0.2: No compression (normal volatility)
range_compression_score = compression × 100
Why Range Compression Matters: Compression precedes expansion. High compression = market coiling, preparing for move. Signals during compression often fail because the breakout hasn't occurred yet.
Factor 4: Channel Position (15% weight)
Tracks price position within the macro channel:
channel_position = (close - channel_low) / (channel_high - channel_low)
position 0.4-0.6: Center of channel (indecision zone)
position <0.2 or >0.8: Near extremes (potential reversal or breakout)
channel_chop = abs(0.5 - channel_position) < 0.15 ? high_score : low_score
Why Channel Position Matters: Price in the middle of a range is in "no man's land"—equally likely to go either direction. Signals in the channel center have lower probability.
Factor 5: Volume Quality (15% weight)
Assesses volume relative to average:
vol_ratio = volume / SMA(volume, 20)
vol_ratio < 0.7: Low volume (lack of conviction)
vol_ratio 0.7-1.3: Normal volume
vol_ratio > 1.3: High volume (conviction present)
volume_chop = vol_ratio < 0.8 ? (1 - vol_ratio) × 100 : 0
Why Volume Quality Matters: Low volume moves lack institutional participation. These moves are more likely to reverse or stall.
Combined Chop Intensity:
chopIntensity = (adx_chop × 0.25) + (chop_idx_score × 0.25) +
(range_compression_score × 0.20) + (channel_chop × 0.15) +
(volume_chop × i_volumeChopWeight × 0.15)
Regime Classifications:
Based on chop intensity and component analysis:
• Strong Trend (0-20%): ADX >30, clear directional momentum, trade aggressively
• Trending (20-35%): ADX >20, moderate directional bias, trade normally
• Transitioning (35-50%): Mixed signals, regime change possible, reduce size
• Mid-Range (50-60%): Price trapped in channel center, avoid new positions
• Ranging (60-70%): Low ADX, price oscillating within bounds, fade extremes only
• Compression (70-80%): Volatility squeeze, expansion imminent, wait for breakout
• Strong Chop (80-100%): Multiple chop factors aligned, avoid trading entirely
Signal Suppression:
When chop intensity exceeds the configurable threshold (default 80%), signals are suppressed entirely. The dashboard displays "⚠️ CHOP ZONE" with the current regime classification.
Chop Box Visualization:
When chop is detected, AMWT draws a semi-transparent box on the chart showing the chop zone. This visual reminder helps traders avoid entering positions during unfavorable conditions.
💧 LIQUIDITY ANCHORING SYSTEM
The Liquidity Concept:
Markets move from liquidity pool to liquidity pool. Stop losses cluster at predictable locations—below swing lows (buy stops become sell orders when triggered) and above swing highs (sell stops become buy orders when triggered). Institutions know where these clusters are and often engineer moves to trigger them before reversing.
AMWT identifies and tracks these liquidity events, using them as anchors for signal confidence.
Liquidity Event Types:
Type 1: Volume Spikes
Definition: Volume > SMA(volume, 20) × i_volThreshold (default 2.8x)
Interpretation: Sudden volume surge indicates institutional activity
• Near swing low + reversal: Likely accumulation
• Near swing high + reversal: Likely distribution
• With continuation: Institutional conviction in direction
Type 2: Stop Runs (Liquidity Sweeps)
Definition: Price briefly exceeds swing high/low then reverses within N bars
Detection:
• Price breaks above recent swing high (triggering buy stops)
• Then closes back below that high within 3 bars
• Signal: Bullish stop run complete, reversal likely
Or inverse for bearish:
• Price breaks below recent swing low (triggering sell stops)
• Then closes back above that low within 3 bars
• Signal: Bearish stop run complete, reversal likely
Type 3: Absorption Events
Definition: High volume with small candle body
Detection:
• Volume > 2x average
• Candle body < 30% of candle range
• Interpretation: Large orders being filled without moving price
• Implication: Accumulation (at lows) or distribution (at highs)
Type 4: BSL/SSL Pools (Buy-Side/Sell-Side Liquidity)
BSL (Buy-Side Liquidity):
• Cluster of swing highs within ATR proximity
• Stop losses from shorts sit above these highs
• Breaking BSL triggers short covering (fuel for rally)
SSL (Sell-Side Liquidity):
• Cluster of swing lows within ATR proximity
• Stop losses from longs sit below these lows
• Breaking SSL triggers long liquidation (fuel for decline)
Liquidity Pool Mapping:
AMWT continuously scans for and maps liquidity pools:
// Detect swing highs/lows using pivot function
swing_high = ta.pivothigh(high, 5, 5)
swing_low = ta.pivotlow(low, 5, 5)
// Track recent swing points
if not na(swing_high)
bsl_levels.push(swing_high)
if not na(swing_low)
ssl_levels.push(swing_low)
// Display on chart with labels
Confluence Scoring Integration:
When signals fire near identified liquidity events, confluence scoring increases:
• Signal near volume spike: +10% confidence
• Signal after liquidity sweep: +15% confidence
• Signal at BSL/SSL pool: +10% confidence
• Signal aligned with absorption zone: +10% confidence
Why Liquidity Anchoring Matters:
Signals "in a vacuum" have lower probability than signals anchored to institutional activity. A long signal after a liquidity sweep below swing lows has trapped shorts providing fuel. A long signal in the middle of nowhere has no such catalyst.
📊 SIGNAL GRADING SYSTEM
The Quality Problem:
Not all signals are created equal. A signal with 6/6 factors aligned is fundamentally different from a signal with 3/6 factors aligned. Traditional indicators treat them the same. AMWT grades every signal based on confluence.
Confluence Components (100 points total):
1. Bandit Consensus Strength (25 points)
consensus_str = weighted average of agent confidences
score = consensus_str × 25
Example:
Trend Agent: +1 signal, 0.80 confidence, 0.35 weight
Reversion Agent: 0 signal, 0.50 confidence, 0.25 weight
Structure Agent: +1 signal, 0.75 confidence, 0.40 weight
Weighted consensus = (0.80×0.35 + 0×0.25 + 0.75×0.40) / (0.35 + 0.40) = 0.77
Score = 0.77 × 25 = 19.25 points
2. HMM State Confidence (15 points)
score = hmm_confidence × 15
Example:
HMM reports 82% probability of IMPULSE_UP
Score = 0.82 × 15 = 12.3 points
3. Session Quality (15 points)
Session quality varies by time:
• London/NY Overlap: 1.0 (15 points)
• New York Session: 0.95 (14.25 points)
• London Session: 0.70 (10.5 points)
• Asian Session: 0.40 (6 points)
• Off-Hours: 0.30 (4.5 points)
• Weekend: 0.10 (1.5 points)
4. Energy/Participation (10 points)
energy = (realized_vol / avg_vol) × 0.4 + (range / ATR) × 0.35 + (volume / avg_volume) × 0.25
score = min(energy, 1.0) × 10
5. Volume Confirmation (10 points)
if volume > SMA(volume, 20) × 1.5:
score = 10
else if volume > SMA(volume, 20):
score = 5
else:
score = 0
6. Structure Alignment (10 points)
For long signals:
• Bullish structure (HH + HL): 10 points
• Higher low only: 6 points
• Neutral structure: 3 points
• Bearish structure: 0 points
Inverse for short signals
7. Trend Alignment (10 points)
For long signals:
• Price > EMA21 > EMA50: 10 points
• Price > EMA21: 6 points
• Neutral: 3 points
• Against trend: 0 points
8. Entry Trigger Quality (5 points)
• Strong trigger (multiple confirmations): 5 points
• Moderate trigger (single confirmation): 3 points
• Weak trigger (marginal): 1 point
Grade Scale:
Total Score → Grade
85-100 → A+ (Exceptional—all factors aligned)
70-84 → A (Strong—high probability)
55-69 → B (Acceptable—proceed with caution)
Below 55 → C (Marginal—filtered by default)
Grade-Based Signal Brightness:
Signal arrows on the chart have transparency based on grade:
• A+: Full brightness (alpha = 0)
• A: Slight fade (alpha = 15)
• B: Moderate fade (alpha = 35)
• C: Significant fade (alpha = 55)
This visual hierarchy helps traders instantly identify signal quality.
Minimum Grade Filter:
Configurable filter (default: C) sets the minimum grade for signal display:
• Set to "A" for only highest-quality signals
• Set to "B" for moderate selectivity
• Set to "C" for all signals (maximum quantity)
🕐 SESSION INTELLIGENCE
Why Sessions Matter:
Markets behave differently at different times. The London open is fundamentally different from the Asian lunch hour. AMWT incorporates session-aware logic to optimize signal quality.
Session Definitions:
Asian Session (18:00-03:00 ET)
• Characteristics: Lower volatility, range-bound tendency, fewer institutional participants
• Quality Score: 0.40 (40% of peak quality)
• Strategy Implications: Fade extremes, expect ranges, smaller position sizes
• Best For: Mean-reversion setups, accumulation/distribution identification
London Session (03:00-12:00 ET)
• Characteristics: European institutional activity, volatility pickup, trend initiation
• Quality Score: 0.70 (70% of peak quality)
• Strategy Implications: Watch for trend development, breakouts more reliable
• Best For: Initial trend identification, structure breaks
New York Session (08:00-17:00 ET)
• Characteristics: Highest liquidity, US institutional activity, major moves
• Quality Score: 0.95 (95% of peak quality)
• Strategy Implications: Best environment for directional trades
• Best For: Trend continuation, momentum plays
London/NY Overlap (08:00-12:00 ET)
• Characteristics: Peak liquidity, both European and US participants active
• Quality Score: 1.0 (100%—maximum quality)
• Strategy Implications: Highest probability for successful breakouts and trends
• Best For: All signal types—this is prime time
Off-Hours
• Characteristics: Thin liquidity, erratic price action, gaps possible
• Quality Score: 0.30 (30% of peak quality)
• Strategy Implications: Avoid new positions, wider stops if holding
• Best For: Waiting
Smart Weekend Detection:
AMWT properly handles the Sunday evening futures open:
// Traditional (broken):
isWeekend = dayofweek == saturday OR dayofweek == sunday
// AMWT (correct):
anySessionActive = not na(asianTime) or not na(londonTime) or not na(nyTime)
isWeekend = calendarWeekend AND NOT anySessionActive
This ensures Sunday 6pm ET (when futures open) correctly shows "Asian Session" rather than "Weekend."
Session Transition Boosts:
Certain session transitions create trading opportunities:
• Asian → London transition: +15% confidence boost (volatility expansion likely)
• London → Overlap transition: +20% confidence boost (peak liquidity approaching)
• Overlap → NY-only transition: -10% confidence adjustment (liquidity declining)
• Any → Off-Hours transition: Signal suppression recommended
📈 TRADE MANAGEMENT SYSTEM
The Signal Spam Problem:
Many indicators generate signal after signal, creating confusion and overtrading. AMWT implements a complete trade lifecycle management system that prevents signal spam and tracks performance.
Trade Lock Mechanism:
Once a signal fires, the system enters a "trade lock" state:
Trade Lock Duration: Configurable (default 30 bars)
Early Exit Conditions:
• TP3 hit (full target reached)
• Stop Loss hit (trade failed)
• Lock expiration (time-based exit)
During lock:
• No new signals of same type displayed
• Opposite signals can override (reversal)
• Trade status tracked in dashboard
Target Levels:
Each signal generates three profit targets based on ATR:
TP1 (Conservative Target)
• Default: 1.0 × ATR
• Purpose: Quick partial profit, reduce risk
• Action: Take 30-40% off position, move stop to breakeven
TP2 (Standard Target)
• Default: 2.5 × ATR
• Purpose: Main profit target
• Action: Take 40-50% off position, trail stop
TP3 (Extended Target)
• Default: 5.0 × ATR
• Purpose: Runner target for trend days
• Action: Close remaining position or continue trailing
Stop Loss:
• Default: 1.9 × ATR from entry
• Purpose: Define maximum risk
• Placement: Below recent swing low (longs) or above recent swing high (shorts)
Invalidation Level:
Beyond stop loss, AMWT calculates an "invalidation" level where the wave hypothesis dies:
invalidation = entry - (ATR × INVALIDATION_MULT × 1.5)
If price reaches invalidation, the current market interpretation is wrong—not just the trade.
Visual Trade Management:
During active trades, AMWT displays:
• Entry arrow with grade label (▲A+, ▼B, etc.)
• TP1, TP2, TP3 horizontal lines in green
• Stop Loss line in red
• Invalidation line in orange (dashed)
• Progress indicator in dashboard
Persistent Execution Markers:
When targets or stops are hit, permanent markers appear:
• TP hit: Green dot with "TP1"/"TP2"/"TP3" label
• SL hit: Red dot with "SL" label
These persist on the chart for review and statistics.
💰 PERFORMANCE TRACKING & STATISTICS
Tracked Metrics:
• Total Trades: Count of all signals that entered trade lock
• Winning Trades: Signals where at least TP1 was reached before SL
• Losing Trades: Signals where SL was hit before any TP
• Win Rate: Winning / Total × 100%
• Total R Profit: Sum of R-multiples from winning trades
• Total R Loss: Sum of R-multiples from losing trades
• Net R: Total R Profit - Total R Loss
Currency Conversion System:
AMWT can display P&L in multiple formats:
R-Multiple (Default)
• Shows risk-normalized returns
• "Net P&L: +4.2R | 78 trades" means 4.2 times initial risk gained over 78 trades
• Best for comparing across different position sizes
Currency Conversion (USD/EUR/GBP/JPY/INR)
• Converts R-multiples to currency based on:
- Dollar Risk Per Trade (user input)
- Tick Value (user input)
- Selected currency
Example Configuration:
Dollar Risk Per Trade: $100
Display Currency: USD
If Net R = +4.2R
Display: Net P&L: +$420.00 | 78 trades
Ticks
• For futures traders who think in ticks
• Converts based on tick value input
Statistics Reset:
Two reset methods:
1. Toggle Reset
• Turn "Reset Statistics" toggle ON then OFF
• Clears all statistics immediately
2. Date-Based Reset
• Set "Reset After Date" (YYYY-MM-DD format)
• Only trades after this date are counted
• Useful for isolating recent performance
🎨 VISUAL FEATURES
Macro Channel:
Dynamic regression-based channel showing market boundaries:
• Upper/lower bounds calculated from swing pivot linear regression
• Adapts to current market structure
• Shows overall trend direction and potential reversal zones
Chop Boxes:
Semi-transparent overlay during high-chop periods:
• Purple/orange coloring indicates dangerous conditions
• Visual reminder to avoid new positions
Confluence Heat Zones:
Background shading indicating setup quality:
• Darker shading = higher confluence
• Lighter shading = lower confluence
• Helps identify optimal entry timing
EMA Ribbon:
Trend visualization via moving average fill:
• EMA 8/21/50 with gradient fill between
• Green fill when bullish aligned
• Red fill when bearish aligned
• Gray when neutral
Absorption Zone Boxes:
Marks potential accumulation/distribution areas:
• High volume + small body = absorption
• Boxes drawn at these levels
• Often act as support/resistance
Liquidity Pool Lines:
BSL/SSL levels with labels:
• Dashed lines at liquidity clusters
• "BSL" label above swing high clusters
• "SSL" label below swing low clusters
Six Professional Themes:
• Quantum: Deep purples and cyans (default)
• Cyberpunk: Neon pinks and blues
• Professional: Muted grays and greens
• Ocean: Blues and teals
• Matrix: Greens and blacks
• Ember: Oranges and reds
🎓 PROFESSIONAL USAGE PROTOCOL
Phase 1: Learning the System (Week 1)
Goal: Understand AMWT concepts and dashboard interpretation
Setup:
• Signal Mode: Balanced
• Display: All features enabled
• Grade Filter: C (see all signals)
Actions:
• Paper trade ONLY—no real money
• Observe HMM state transitions throughout the day
• Note when agents agree vs disagree
• Watch chop detection engage and disengage
• Track which grades produce winners vs losers
Key Learning Questions:
• How often do A+ signals win vs B signals? (Should see clear difference)
• Which agent tends to be right in current market? (Check dashboard)
• When does chop detection save you from bad trades?
• How do signals near liquidity events perform vs signals in vacuum?
Phase 2: Parameter Optimization (Week 2)
Goal: Tune system to your instrument and timeframe
Signal Mode Testing:
• Run 5 days on Aggressive mode (more signals)
• Run 5 days on Conservative mode (fewer signals)
• Compare: Which produces better risk-adjusted returns?
Grade Filter Testing:
• Track A+ only for 20 signals
• Track A and above for 20 signals
• Track B and above for 20 signals
• Compare win rates and expectancy
Chop Threshold Testing:
• Default (80%): Standard filtering
• Try 70%: More aggressive filtering
• Try 90%: Less filtering
• Which produces best results for your instrument?
Phase 3: Strategy Development (Weeks 3-4)
Goal: Develop personal trading rules based on system signals
Position Sizing by Grade:
• A+ grade: 100% position size
• A grade: 75% position size
• B grade: 50% position size
• C grade: 25% position size (or skip)
Session-Based Rules:
• London/NY Overlap: Take all A/A+ signals
• NY Session: Take all A+ signals, selective on A
• Asian Session: Only A+ signals with extra confirmation
• Off-Hours: No new positions
Chop Zone Rules:
• Chop >70%: Reduce position size 50%
• Chop >80%: No new positions
• Chop <50%: Full position size allowed
Phase 4: Live Micro-Sizing (Month 2)
Goal: Validate paper trading results with minimal risk
Setup:
• 10-20% of intended full position size
• Take ONLY A+ signals initially
• Follow trade management religiously
Tracking:
• Log every trade: Entry, Exit, Grade, HMM State, Chop Level, Agent Consensus
• Calculate: Win rate by grade, by session, by chop level
• Compare to paper trading (should be within 15%)
Red Flags:
• Win rate diverges significantly from paper trading: Execution issues
• Consistent losses during certain sessions: Adjust session rules
• Losses cluster when specific agent dominates: Review that agent's logic
Phase 5: Scaling Up (Months 3-6)
Goal: Gradually increase to full position size
Progression:
• Month 3: 25-40% size (if micro-sizing profitable)
• Month 4: 40-60% size
• Month 5: 60-80% size
• Month 6: 80-100% size
Scale-Up Requirements:
• Minimum 30 trades at current size
• Win rate ≥50%
• Net R positive
• No revenge trading incidents
• Emotional control maintained
💡 DEVELOPMENT INSIGHTS
Why HMM Over Simple Indicators:
Early versions used standard indicators (RSI >70 = overbought, etc.). Win rates hovered at 52-55%. The problem: indicators don't capture state. RSI can stay "overbought" for weeks in a strong trend.
The insight: markets exist in states, and state persistence matters more than indicator levels. Implementing HMM with state transition probabilities increased signal quality significantly. The system now knows not just "RSI is high" but "we're in IMPULSE_UP state with 70% probability of staying in IMPULSE_UP."
The Multi-Agent Evolution:
Original version used a single analytical methodology—trend-following. Performance was inconsistent: great in trends, destroyed in ranges. Added mean-reversion agent: now it was inconsistent the other way.
The breakthrough: use multiple agents and let the system learn which works . Thompson Sampling wasn't the first attempt—tried simple averaging, voting, even hard-coded regime switching. Thompson Sampling won because it's mathematically optimal and automatically adapts without manual regime detection.
Chop Detection Revelation:
Chop detection was added almost as an afterthought. "Let's filter out obviously bad conditions." Testing revealed it was the most impactful single feature. Filtering chop zones reduced losing trades by 35% while only reducing total signals by 20%. The insight: avoiding bad trades matters more than finding good ones.
Liquidity Anchoring Discovery:
Watched hundreds of trades. Noticed pattern: signals that fired after liquidity events (stop runs, volume spikes) had significantly higher win rates than signals in quiet markets. Implemented liquidity detection and anchoring. Win rate on liquidity-anchored signals: 68% vs 52% on non-anchored signals.
The Grade System Impact:
Early system had binary signals (fire or don't fire). Adding grading transformed it. Traders could finally match position size to signal quality. A+ signals deserved full size; C signals deserved caution. Just implementing grade-based sizing improved portfolio Sharpe ratio by 0.3.
🚨 LIMITATIONS & CRITICAL ASSUMPTIONS
What AMWT Is NOT:
• NOT a Holy Grail : No system wins every trade. AMWT improves probability, not certainty.
• NOT Fully Automated : AMWT provides signals and analysis; execution requires human judgment.
• NOT News-Proof : Exogenous shocks (FOMC surprises, geopolitical events) invalidate all technical analysis.
• NOT for Scalping : HMM state estimation needs time to develop. Sub-minute timeframes are not appropriate.
Core Assumptions:
1. Markets Have States : Assumes markets transition between identifiable regimes. Violation: Random walk markets with no regime structure.
2. States Are Inferable : Assumes observable indicators reveal hidden states. Violation: Market manipulation creating false signals.
3. History Informs Future : Assumes past agent performance predicts future performance. Violation: Regime changes that invalidate historical patterns.
4. Liquidity Events Matter : Assumes institutional activity creates predictable patterns. Violation: Markets with no institutional participation.
Performs Best On:
• Liquid Futures : ES, NQ, MNQ, MES, CL, GC
• Major Forex Pairs : EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY
• Large-Cap Stocks : AAPL, MSFT, TSLA, NVDA (>$5B market cap)
• Liquid Crypto : BTC, ETH on major exchanges
Performs Poorly On:
• Illiquid Instruments : Low volume stocks, exotic pairs
• Very Low Timeframes : Sub-5-minute charts (noise overwhelms signal)
• Binary Event Days : Earnings, FDA approvals, court rulings
• Manipulated Markets : Penny stocks, low-cap altcoins
Known Weaknesses:
• Warmup Period : HMM needs ~50 bars to initialize properly. Early signals may be unreliable.
• Regime Change Lag : Thompson Sampling adapts over time, not instantly. Sudden regime changes may cause short-term underperformance.
• Complexity : More parameters than simple indicators. Requires understanding to use effectively.
⚠️ RISK DISCLOSURE
Trading futures, stocks, options, forex, and cryptocurrencies involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Adaptive Market Wave Theory, while based on rigorous mathematical frameworks including Hidden Markov Models and multi-armed bandit algorithms, does not guarantee profits and can result in significant losses.
AMWT's methodologies—HMM state estimation, Thompson Sampling agent selection, and confluence-based grading—have theoretical foundations but past performance is not indicative of future results.
Hidden Markov Model assumptions may not hold during:
• Major news events disrupting normal market behavior
• Flash crashes or circuit breaker events
• Low liquidity periods with erratic price action
• Algorithmic manipulation or spoofing
Multi-agent consensus assumes independent analytical perspectives provide edge. Market conditions change. Edges that existed historically can diminish or disappear.
Users must independently validate system performance on their specific instruments, timeframes, and broker execution environment. Paper trade extensively before risking capital. Start with micro position sizing.
Never risk more than you can afford to lose completely. Use proper position sizing. Implement stop losses without exception.
By using this indicator, you acknowledge these risks and accept full responsibility for all trading decisions and outcomes.
"Elliott Wave was a first-order approximation of market phase behavior. AMWT is the second—probabilistic, adaptive, and accountable."
Initial Public Release
Core Engine:
• True Hidden Markov Model with online Baum-Welch learning
• Viterbi algorithm for optimal state sequence decoding
• 6-state market regime classification
Agent System:
• 3-Bandit consensus (Trend, Reversion, Structure)
• Thompson Sampling with true Beta distribution sampling
• Adaptive weight learning based on performance
Signal Generation:
• Quality-based confluence grading (A+/A/B/C)
• Four signal modes (Aggressive/Balanced/Conservative/Institutional)
• Grade-based visual brightness
Chop Detection:
• 5-factor analysis (ADX, Choppiness Index, Range Compression, Channel Position, Volume)
• 7 regime classifications
• Configurable signal suppression threshold
Liquidity:
• Volume spike detection
• Stop run (liquidity sweep) identification
• BSL/SSL pool mapping
• Absorption zone detection
Trade Management:
• Trade lock with configurable duration
• TP1/TP2/TP3 targets
• ATR-based stop loss
• Persistent execution markers
Session Intelligence:
• Asian/London/NY/Overlap detection
• Smart weekend handling (Sunday futures open)
• Session quality scoring
Performance:
• Statistics tracking with reset functionality
• 7 currency display modes
• Win rate and Net R calculation
Visuals:
• Macro channel with linear regression
• Chop boxes
• EMA ribbon
• Liquidity pool lines
• 6 professional themes
Dashboards:
• Main Dashboard: Market State, Consensus, Trade Status, Statistics
📋 AMWT vs AMWT-PRO:
This version includes all core AMWT functionality:
✓ Full Hidden Markov Model state estimation
✓ 3-Bandit Thompson Sampling consensus system
✓ Complete 5-factor chop detection engine
✓ All four signal modes
✓ Full trade management with TP/SL tracking
✓ Main dashboard with complete statistics
✓ All visual features (channels, zones, pools)
✓ Identical signal generation to PRO
✓ Six professional themes
✓ Full alert system
The PRO version adds the AMWT Advisor panel—a secondary dashboard providing:
• Real-time Market Pulse situation assessment
• Agent Matrix visualization (individual agent votes)
• Structure analysis breakdown
• "Watch For" upcoming setups
• Action Command coaching
Both versions generate identical signals . The Advisor provides additional guidance for interpreting those signals.
Taking you to school. - Dskyz, Trade with probability. Trade with consensus. Trade with AMWT.
USDT: Market cap changeUSDT: Market Cap Change
This indicator tracks the market capitalization changes of major stablecoins (USDT, USDC, and DAI) to help identify capital flows in the cryptocurrency market.
Features:
Monitor daily and custom period market cap changes for selected stablecoins
Configurable stablecoin selection (USDT, USDC, DAI)
Adjustable lookback period for measuring market cap changes
Multiple moving average types (SMA, EMA, HMA, WMA, RMA) for trend analysis
Visual representation with columns for daily changes and area fill for custom period changes
How to Use:
The indicator displays two main metrics: daily market cap change (shown as columns) and custom period change (shown as a line with area fill). Positive values indicate capital inflow into stablecoins, which may suggest accumulation or risk-off sentiment. Negative values indicate capital outflow, potentially signaling deployment into other crypto assets.
The moving average overlay helps identify trends in stablecoin market cap changes over time.
Settings:
Select which stablecoins to track
Adjust the lookback period (default: 60 days)
Toggle and configure the moving average overlay
Customize MA type and length
Data Source:
Uses Glassnode market capitalization data for USDT, USDC, and DAI on a daily timeframe.
US Index Market Snapshot Cash, Futures & ETFsBrief Description
This study displays a real-time table of major U.S. equity indices—Dow Jones, S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Russell—across Cash, Futures, and ETF markets.
Each cell shows the current price along with the daily percentage change, with color-coded backgrounds for quick trend identification.
Designed as a compact market dashboard, it provides an at-a-glance view of cross-market alignment and relative performance.
Alternative Title Options
US Indices Dashboard (Cash • Futures • ETFs)
Index Market Matrix – Prices & Daily Change
Multi-Market US Index Table
FVG & OB [odnac]This indicator is a sophisticated tool designed for Smart Money Concepts (SMC) traders. It automates the detection of two critical institutional footprints: Order Blocks (OB) and Fair Value Gaps (FVG), with a focus on candle momentum and mitigation tracking.
Key Features
1. Advanced Momentum Filtering (3 Versions)
Unlike basic indicators, this script uses three different mathematical approaches to ensure the middle candle represents a "strong" move:
V1 (Body Focus): Compares the bodies of the surrounding candles to the middle candle.
V2 (Hybrid): Uses a mix of candle ranges and bodies to identify expansion.
V3 (Range Focus): The most aggressive filter; it ensures the total range of the middle candle dwarfs the surrounding candles.
2. Automatic Mitigation Tracking
The indicator doesn't just draw static boxes. It tracks price action in real-time:
Dynamic Extension: Boxes extend to the right automatically as long as price has not returned to "test" or "fill" the zone.
Smart Clean-up: Once the price touches the zone (Mitigation), the box stops extending or is removed. This keeps your chart clean and focused only on "fresh" (unmitigated) levels.
3. Smart Money Concept Integration
Order Blocks (White Boxes): Identifies where institutional buying or selling occurred before a strong move.
Fair Value Gaps (Yellow Boxes): Highlights price imbalances where the market moved too fast, leaving a gap that often acts as a magnet for future price action.
Technical Logic Breakdown
Detection Logic
The script looks at a 3-candle sequence:
Candle (The Origin): Defines the boundary of the OB or FVG.
Candle (The Expansion): Must be a "Strong Candle" based on your selected setting (V1, V2, or V3).
Candle (The Confirmation): Ensures that the "Tail Gap" condition is met (the wick of Candle 2 and Candle 0 do not touch).
Box Management
The script uses Pine Script Arrays to manage up to 500 boxes. It constantly loops through active boxes to check:
Time Limit: If a box exceeds the max_bars_extend limit, it is removed to save memory.
Price Touch: If low or high enters the box coordinates, the zone is considered "mitigated" and the extension stops.
Asia & London Session High/Low Description:
This indicator plots the highest and lowest points of the Asian and London trading sessions based on Eastern Time (ET).
Features:
Draws horizontal rays for session highs and lows
Automatically resets for each session
Perfect for I CT-style liquidity analysis , range breaks , and session-based trading setups
Clean chart : no labels or clutter, just the key session levels
Use it to identify liquidity zones , plan entries , and anticipate potential session raids in your trading strategy.
CFD Position Sizing Tool (ATR-Based)A visual dashboard is included. This is an ATR Designed robust position sizing calculator for the on the fly traders.
SOFR - EFFR SpreadThis indicator calculates and visualizes the spread between SOFR (Secured Overnight Financing Rate) and EFFR (Effective Federal Funds Rate) on TradingView. It fetches data from FRED to compute the difference. 'Red' indicates a liquidity crunch (tightness) in the market, while 'green' indicates ample liquidity.
Liquidation Map [Alpha Extract]A sophisticated liquidity distribution visualization system that identifies potential liquidation zones through pivot-based detection and renders them as an interactive histogram with cumulative distance-to-liquidation curves. Utilizing multi-exchange volume aggregation and ATR-scaled pocket detection, this indicator delivers institutional-grade liquidity mapping with real-time histogram display showing relative concentration of long and short liquidation levels across configurable price ranges. The system's box-based rendering architecture combined with cumulative distribution overlays provides comprehensive visual assessment of asymmetric liquidity positioning for strategic trade planning.
🔶 Advanced Multi-Exchange Aggregation Framework
Implements intelligent ticker detection and multi-source volume aggregation across major exchanges including Binance, Bybit, KuCoin, OKX, and MEXC for accurate liquidity weight calculations. The system automatically identifies base currency (BTC, ETH, SOL) from chart ticker, retrieves volume data from matching perpetual contracts across multiple venues, and aggregates into composite volume metric for enhanced pocket weighting accuracy.
🔶 Pivot-Based Liquidation Pocket Detection
Features sophisticated swing point identification using configurable pivot width with ATR-scaled vertical zone construction for volatility-adaptive pocket sizing. The system detects pivot highs for short liquidation zones (placed above swing) and pivot lows for long liquidation zones (placed below swing), applying 200-period ATR with percentage multipliers to determine pocket heights that adjust to market volatility conditions.
🔶 Interactive Histogram Visualization Engine
Provides real-time box-based histogram rendering in indicator pane with configurable bin counts (up to 400 columns) and adjustable height, displaying liquidity concentration across fixed percentage range above and below current price. The system calculates bin sizes from view range, accumulates pocket weights into price bins, and renders vertical bars with gradient color intensity reflecting relative liquidity concentration at each price level.
🔶 Cumulative Distance Overlay System
Implements innovative cumulative distribution curves showing aggregate liquidity distance from current price for both long (left) and short (right) positions. The system calculates running totals of pocket weights from current price outward in both directions, normalizes against maximum span, and overlays line segments showing how much total liquidity exists at various distances, enabling instant assessment of liquidation cascade potential.
🔶 Dynamic Price Range Adaptation
Features fixed percentage-based view window that maintains consistent price range visualization across all timeframes and instruments, automatically centering histogram on current price with configurable +/- percentage bounds. The system recalculates histogram bins and pocket distributions on each bar close, ensuring visualization adapts to price movement while maintaining interpretable scale regardless of volatility regime.
🔶 Touch Detection and Weight Adjustment
Provides intelligent pocket state tracking that identifies when price trades through liquidation zones and applies configurable weight multipliers to touched pockets for historical context. The system monitors price interaction with pocket midpoints, marks pockets as "hit" when violated, and optionally increases their visual weight (default 5x) to emphasize historical liquidation levels while distinguishing from untouched future zones.
🔶 Gradient Intensity Color System
Implements sophisticated color gradient engine that modulates bar opacity from transparent to opaque based on relative liquidity concentration within each bin. The system normalizes bin values against maximum liquidity, applies color interpolation from faded to vivid hues, and distinguishes long liquidation zones (cyan) from short liquidation zones (yellow/gold) with current price column highlighted in red for instant orientation.
🔶 Performance-Optimized Rendering Architecture
Utilizes efficient box and line object management with dynamic allocation based on histogram configuration, implementing intelligent cleanup and reuse to maintain smooth performance. The system includes adaptive line budget calculations that adjust segment density for cumulative curves based on available object limits, ensuring consistent operation even with maximum histogram resolution settings.
🔶 Asymmetric Distribution Analysis
Calculates separate cumulative distributions for long and short liquidation zones split at current price, enabling identification of imbalanced liquidity positioning. The system normalizes distributions against respective maximums and overlays both curves on single histogram, allowing traders to instantly assess whether more liquidation risk exists above (shorts vulnerable) or below (longs vulnerable) current price levels.
🔶 Configurable Label and Scale System
Provides price axis labeling with adjustable frequency to reduce clutter while maintaining reference points, displaying price values at regular column intervals with configurable offset positioning. The system includes current price label showing exact value and percentile position within view range, offering both absolute price reference and relative positioning context for distribution interpretation.
🔶 Historical Pocket Persistence Framework
Maintains rolling window of liquidation pockets up to 3000 bars with automatic expiration management and optional preservation of touched zones for historical analysis. The system tracks pocket creation time, monitors age against lookback limits, and manages array cleanup to prevent memory overflow while retaining relevant historical liquidation levels for pattern recognition and support/resistance validation.
This indicator delivers sophisticated liquidity distribution analysis through histogram visualization and cumulative distance curves that reveal asymmetric positioning of potential liquidation levels. Unlike simple liquidation heatmaps that show absolute levels, the Liquidation Map's cumulative distribution overlays instantly communicate how much total liquidity exists at various distances from current price, enabling assessment of cascade potential. The system's multi-exchange volume aggregation, touch-weighted historical zones, and fixed-range visualization make it essential for traders seeking strategic positioning around institutional liquidity clusters in cryptocurrency futures markets. The histogram format enables instant identification of price levels where concentrated liquidations may trigger significant volatility or reversal events, while the asymmetric distribution curves reveal whether market structure favors upside or downside cascades.
Breakeven LECAPs BONCAPsEN
Breakeven LECAPs & BONCAPs (ARS → USD) + Futures Curve
This indicator plots the breakeven USD/ARS exchange rate for Argentine fixed-rate Treasury instruments LECAPs (S tickers) and BONCAPs (T tickers), showing the USD/ARS level at each maturity where holding the peso instrument would match the performance of holding dollars.
What you get
• Breakeven labels at (Maturity Date, Breakeven Dollar)
• Automatic FX benchmarks:
• Dólar MEP: BCBA:AL30 / BCBA:AL30D
• Dólar Cable (CCL): BCBA:AL30 / BCBA:AL30C
• Optional Custom Dollar input (1000–10000 ARS)
• Optional MatbaRofex USD futures labels at their expiry dates
• Optional polynomial regression curves for LECAPs, BONCAPs, and Futures (degree 1–4), with independent toggles, colors, and smoothness points
Core calculations
• Direct Return = (Maturity Price / Last Price) - 1
• TNA (Annualized Rate) = Direct Return × 365 / Days to Maturity
• Breakeven Dollar = Current Dollar × (1 + Direct Return)
Tooltip (hover labels)
Ticker/type, maturity date, days to maturity, current price, maturity price (px_finish), direct return, TNA, and breakeven value.
⸻
ES
Breakeven LECAPs & BONCAPs (ARS → USD) + Curva de Futuros
Este indicador grafica el tipo de cambio USD/ARS de equilibrio (breakeven) para instrumentos de tasa fija del Tesoro argentino LECAPs (tickers S) y BONCAPs (tickers T). Te muestra a qué nivel de dólar, en cada vencimiento, una inversión en pesos igualaría el rendimiento de quedarse en dólares.
Qué muestra
• Etiquetas de breakeven en (Fecha de vencimiento, Dólar breakeven)
• Referencias automáticas de tipo de cambio:
• Dólar MEP: BCBA:AL30 / BCBA:AL30D
• Dólar Cable (CCL): BCBA:AL30 / BCBA:AL30C
• Opción de Dólar Custom (1000–10000 ARS)
• Opción de mostrar futuros de USD MatbaRofex en sus vencimientos
• Curvas de regresión polinómica opcionales para LECAPs, BONCAPs y Futuros (grado 1–4), con toggle, color y suavizado configurables por separado
Cálculos principales
• Retorno Directo = (Precio de vencimiento / Último precio) - 1
• TNA = Retorno Directo × 365 / Días al vencimiento
• Dólar Breakeven = Dólar actual × (1 + Retorno Directo)
Tooltip (pasar el mouse por las etiquetas)
Ticker/tipo, fecha de vencimiento, días restantes, precio actual, precio de vencimiento (px_finish), retorno directo, TNA y valor de breakeven.
==================== DISCLAIMER / AVISO LEGAL ====================
This indicator is for informational and educational purposes only.
Eco Valores S.A. does NOT provide investment advice or recommendations.
Consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Este indicador es solo para fines informativos y educativos.
Eco Valores S.A. NO brinda asesoramiento ni recomendaciones de inversion.
Consulte con un asesor financiero calificado antes de invertir.
===================================================================
LECAPS_BONCAP_LibraryLibrary "LECAPS_BONCAP_Library"
getInstrumentCount()
getTicker(index)
Parameters:
index (int)
getTickerShort(index)
Parameters:
index (int)
getMaturityPrice(index)
Parameters:
index (int)
getMaturityTimestamp(index)
Parameters:
index (int)
getMaturityYear(index)
Parameters:
index (int)
getMaturityMonth(index)
Parameters:
index (int)
getMaturityDay(index)
Parameters:
index (int)
isBoncap(index)
Parameters:
index (int)
isLecap(index)
Parameters:
index (int)
getInstrumentType(index)
Parameters:
index (int)
getDolarFuturesCount()
getDolarFuturesTicker(index)
Parameters:
index (int)
getDolarFuturesShort(index)
Parameters:
index (int)
getDolarFuturesExpiry(index)
Parameters:
index (int)
getDaysToMaturity(index)
Parameters:
index (int)
getDataSummary(index)
Parameters:
index (int)
YTD % / Visible Range % TableAUTHOR: Brandon Gum
DATE: 2026-01-03
// PURPOSE:
// Calculates price-range metrics based on the *currently visible*
// portion of the chart. Intended for table-based UI display where
// values must be stable and evaluated only on the last bar.
//
// Originally based on Jeff Sun's ADR price data table.
//
// METRICS RETURNED:
// - Visible High
// - Visible Low
// - Visible % Range = (Visible High - Visible Low) / Visible Low
// - Visible ATRs = (Visible High - Visible Low) / ATR
//
// IMPLEMENTATION NOTES:
// - Logic executes ONLY on barstate.islast to avoid state corruption.
// - Visible range is recomputed atomically using a backward loop
// bounded by chart.left_visible_bar_time.
// - Avoids var-based accumulation and bar-by-bar resets, which are
// unreliable when visible window changes.
// - ATR is evaluated at the current bar (not averaged over range).
//
// ASSUMPTIONS / LIMITATIONS:
// - Uses chart-visible time boundaries supplied by TradingView.
// - Loop upper bound must be sufficiently large to cover max
// expected visible bars.
// - Intended for display purposes, not signal generation.
//
// SIDE EFFECTS:
// - None. No plots, no drawings, no state persistence.
FX Rate Bias US vs EU 2YFX Rate Bias – US vs EU (2Y)
This indicator implements a rate-differential based macro bias model using the 2-year government bond yield spread between the United States and Germany.
The methodology focuses on the short end of the yield curve, which primarily reflects central bank expectations rather than long-term inflation or risk premiums.
By applying light smoothing and a zero-line regime framework, the script classifies market conditions into USD rate advantage or EUR rate advantage states.
Calculation logic:
Retrieves daily 2Y sovereign yields for the US and Germany
Computes the yield differential (US − DE)
Applies optional smoothing to reduce noise
Uses the zero line as a regime boundary to define relative monetary bias
Practical use:
This tool is designed to provide directional macro context for FX analysis, particularly for EURUSD.
It helps traders align technical setups with prevailing interest rate expectations, and is not intended as a standalone signal or timing indicator.
Apex ICT: Proximity & Delivery FlowThis indicator is a specialized ICT execution tool that automates the identification of Order Blocks, Fair Value Gaps, and Changes in State of Delivery (CISD). Unlike standard indicators that clutter the screen, this script uses a Proximity Logic Engine to ensure you only see tradeable levels. It automatically purges old data (50-candle CISD limit) and deletes mitigated zones the moment they are breached, leaving you with a clean, institutional-grade chart.
ICT CISD+FVG+OBThis script is a high-performance ICT suite designed for traders who want a professional, "noise-free" chart. It identifies core institutional patterns—Order Blocks, Fair Value Gaps, and Changes in State of Delivery (CISD)—across multiple timeframes.
The script features a proprietary Proximity Cleanup Engine that automatically deletes old or broken levels, keeping your workspace focused only on price action that is currently tradeable. It strictly follows directional delivery rules for CISD and includes a 50-candle "freshness" limit to ensure you never have to manually clear old data from your past bars.
Core Features
Intelligent CISD: Only triggers Bullish CISD on green candles and Bearish CISD on red candles.
Proximity Filter: Automatically wipes away any levels that are "miles away" from the current price.
Clean Workspace: Removes broken session highs/lows and mitigated zones instantly.
Full Customization: Toggle visibility and colors for every component via the settings menu.
[ElThibZ] - Futures Lot Size CalculatorI’m sharing a simple script to calculate position size for futures.
You only need to enter:
the risk in USD you’re willing to take
the stop-loss distance in ticks
The script will automatically calculate the correct position size (number of contracts) and display it in the table.
This tool is designed to avoid sizing mistakes, especially on futures where contract multipliers and tick values can easily lead to incorrect risk calculations.
I hope it will be as useful to you as it has been for me.
777 mean reversion engineA guy asked his librarian if they had any books on "paranoia." She leaned in and whispered, "They're right behind you." He hasn't been back to the library since.
Adaptive Trend Envelope [BackQuant]Adaptive Trend Envelope
Overview
Adaptive Trend Envelope is a volatility-aware trend-following overlay designed to stay responsive in fast markets while remaining stable during slower conditions. It builds a dynamic trend spine from two exponential moving averages and surrounds it with an adaptive envelope whose width expands and contracts based on realized return volatility. The result is a clean, self-adjusting trend structure that reacts to market conditions instead of relying on fixed parameters.
This indicator is built to answer three core questions directly on the chart:
Is the market trending or neutral?
If trending, in which direction is the dominant pressure?
Where is the dynamic trend boundary that price should respect?
Core trend spine
At the heart of the indicator is a blended trend spine:
A fast EMA captures short-term responsiveness.
A slow EMA captures structural direction.
A volatility-based blend weight dynamically shifts influence between the two.
When short-term volatility is low relative to long-term volatility, the fast EMA has more influence, keeping the trend responsive. When volatility rises, the blend shifts toward the slow EMA, reducing noise and preventing overreaction. This blended output is then smoothed again to form the final trend spine, which acts as the structural backbone of the system.
Volatility-adaptive envelope
The envelope surrounding the trend spine is not based on ATR or fixed percentages. Instead, it is derived from:
Log returns of price.
An exponentially weighted variance estimate.
A configurable multiplier that scales envelope width.
This creates bands that automatically widen during volatile expansions and tighten during compression. The envelope therefore reflects the true statistical behavior of price rather than an arbitrary distance.
Inner hysteresis band
Inside the main envelope, an inner band is constructed using a hysteresis fraction. This inner zone is used to stabilize regime transitions:
It prevents rapid flipping between bullish and bearish states.
It allows trends to persist unless price meaningfully invalidates them.
It reduces whipsaws in sideways conditions.
Trend regime logic
The indicator operates with three regime states:
Bullish
Bearish
Neutral
Regime changes are confirmed using a configurable number of bars outside the adaptive envelope:
A bullish regime is confirmed when price closes above the upper envelope for the required number of bars.
A bearish regime is confirmed when price closes below the lower envelope for the required number of bars.
A trend exits back to neutral when price reverts through the trend spine.
This structure ensures that trends are confirmed by sustained pressure rather than single-bar spikes.
Active trend line
Once a regime is active, the indicator plots a single dominant trend line:
In a bullish regime, the lower envelope becomes the active trend support.
In a bearish regime, the upper envelope becomes the active trend resistance.
In neutral conditions, price itself is used as a placeholder.
This creates a simple, actionable visual reference for trend-following decisions.
Directional energy visualization
The indicator uses layered fills to visualize directional pressure:
Bullish energy fills appear when price holds above the active trend line.
Bearish energy fills appear when price holds below the active trend line.
Opacity gradients communicate strength and persistence rather than binary states.
A subtle “rim” effect is added using ATR-based offsets to give depth and reinforce the active side of the trend without cluttering the chart.
Signals and trend starts
Discrete signals are generated only when a new trend regime begins:
Buy signals appear at the first confirmed transition into a bullish regime.
Sell signals appear at the first confirmed transition into a bearish regime.
Signals are intentionally sparse. They are designed to mark regime shifts, not every pullback or continuation, making them suitable for higher-quality trend entries rather than frequent trading.
Candle coloring
Optional candle coloring reinforces regime context:
Bullish regimes tint candles toward the bullish color.
Bearish regimes tint candles toward the bearish color.
Neutral states remain visually muted.
This allows the chart to communicate trend state even when the envelope itself is partially hidden or de-emphasized.
Alerts
Built-in alerts are provided for key trend events:
Bull trend start.
Bear trend start.
Transition from trend to neutral.
Price crossing the trend spine.
These alerts support hands-off trend monitoring across multiple instruments and timeframes.
How to use it for trend following
Trend identification
Only trade in the direction of the active regime.
Ignore counter-trend signals during confirmed trends.
Entry alignment
Use the first regime signal as a structural entry.
Use pullbacks toward the active trend line as continuation opportunities.
Trend management
As long as price respects the active envelope boundary, the trend remains valid.
A move back through the spine signals loss of trend structure.
Market filtering
Periods where the indicator remains neutral highlight non-trending environments.
This helps avoid forcing trades during chop or compression.
Adaptive Trend Envelope is designed to behave like a living trend structure. Instead of forcing price into static rules, it adapts to volatility, confirms direction through sustained pressure, and presents trend information in a clean, readable form that supports disciplined trend-following workflows.
PM/PW/PD/OVN/CD/CM/CW/ORB Highs & Lows + EMAs + ATH/ATL/52WTogglable:
Previous Month High / Low
Previous Week High / Low
Previous Day High / Low
Current Month High / Low
Current Week High / Low
Current Day High / Low
ORB High / Low
Overnight High / Low
Asia Session High / Low
London Session High / Low
All Time High / Low
52week High / Low
3 EMAs (default 21/34/55)
Dashboards + lines on chart
DeeptestDeeptest: Quantitative Backtesting Library for Pine Script
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█ OVERVIEW
Deeptest is a Pine Script library that provides quantitative analysis tools for strategy backtesting. It calculates over 100 statistical metrics including risk-adjusted return ratios (Sharpe, Sortino, Calmar), drawdown analysis, Value at Risk (VaR), Conditional VaR, and performs Monte Carlo simulation and Walk-Forward Analysis.
█ WHY THIS LIBRARY MATTERS
Pine Script is a simple yet effective coding language for algorithmic and quantitative trading. Its accessibility enables traders to quickly prototype and test ideas directly within TradingView. However, the built-in strategy tester provides only basic metrics (net profit, win rate, drawdown), which is often insufficient for serious strategy evaluation.
Due to this limitation, many traders migrate to alternative backtesting platforms that offer comprehensive analytics. These platforms require other language programming knowledge, environment setup, and significant time investment—often just to test a simple trading idea.
Deeptest bridges this gap by bringing institutional-level quantitative analytics directly to Pine Script. Traders can now perform sophisticated analysis without leaving TradingView or learning complex external platforms. All calculations are derived from strategy.closedtrades.* , ensuring compatibility with any existing Pine Script strategy.
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█ ORIGINALITY AND USEFULNESS
This library is original work that adds value to the TradingView community in the following ways:
1. Comprehensive Metric Suite: Implements 112+ statistical calculations in a single library, including advanced metrics not available in TradingView's built-in tester (p-value, Z-score, Skewness, Kurtosis, Risk of Ruin).
2. Monte Carlo Simulation: Implements trade-sequence randomization to stress-test strategy robustness by simulating 1000+ alternative equity curves.
3. Walk-Forward Analysis: Divides historical data into rolling in-sample and out-of-sample windows to detect overfitting by comparing training vs. testing performance.
4. Rolling Window Statistics: Calculates time-varying Sharpe, Sortino, and Expectancy to analyze metric consistency throughout the backtest period.
5. Interactive Table Display: Renders professional-grade tables with color-coded thresholds, tooltips explaining each metric, and period analysis cards for drawdowns/trades.
6. Benchmark Comparison: Automatically fetches S&P 500 data to calculate Alpha, Beta, and R-squared, enabling objective assessment of strategy skill vs. passive investing.
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█ KEY FEATURES
Performance Metrics
Net Profit, CAGR, Monthly Return, Expectancy
Profit Factor, Payoff Ratio, Sample Size
Compounding Effect Analysis
Risk Metrics
Sharpe Ratio, Sortino Ratio, Calmar Ratio (MAR)
Martin Ratio, Ulcer Index
Max Drawdown, Average Drawdown, Drawdown Duration
Risk of Ruin, R-squared (equity curve linearity)
Statistical Distribution
Value at Risk (VaR 95%), Conditional VaR
Skewness (return asymmetry)
Kurtosis (tail fatness)
Z-Score, p-value (statistical significance testing)
Trade Analysis
Win Rate, Breakeven Rate, Loss Rate
Average Trade Duration, Time in Market
Consecutive Win/Loss Streaks with Expected values
Top/Worst Trades with R-multiple tracking
Advanced Analytics
Monte Carlo Simulation (1000+ iterations)
Walk-Forward Analysis (rolling windows)
Rolling Statistics (time-varying metrics)
Out-of-Sample Testing
Benchmark Comparison
Alpha (excess return vs. benchmark)
Beta (systematic risk correlation)
Buy & Hold comparison
R-squared vs. benchmark
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█ QUICK START
Basic Usage
//@version=6
strategy("My Strategy", overlay=true)
// Import the library
import Fractalyst/Deeptest/1 as *
// Your strategy logic
fastMA = ta.sma(close, 10)
slowMA = ta.sma(close, 30)
if ta.crossover(fastMA, slowMA)
strategy.entry("Long", strategy.long)
if ta.crossunder(fastMA, slowMA)
strategy.close("Long")
// Run the analysis
DT.runDeeptest()
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█ METRIC EXPLANATIONS
The Deeptest table displays 23 metrics across the main row, with 23 additional metrics in the complementary row. Each metric includes detailed tooltips accessible by hovering over the value.
Main Row — Performance Metrics (Columns 0-6)
Net Profit — (Final Equity - Initial Capital) / Initial Capital × 100
— >20%: Excellent, >0%: Profitable, <0%: Loss
— Total return percentage over entire backtest period
Payoff Ratio — Average Win / Average Loss
— >1.5: Excellent, >1.0: Good, <1.0: Losses exceed wins
— Average winning trade size relative to average losing trade. Breakeven win rate = 100% / (1 + Payoff)
Sample Size — Count of closed trades
— >=30: Statistically valid, <30: Insufficient data
— Number of completed trades. Includes 95% confidence interval for win rate in tooltip
Profit Factor — Gross Profit / Gross Loss
— >=1.5: Excellent, >1.0: Profitable, <1.0: Losing
— Ratio of total winnings to total losses. Uses absolute values unlike payoff ratio
CAGR — (Final / Initial)^(365.25 / Days) - 1
— >=10%: Excellent, >0%: Positive growth
— Compound Annual Growth Rate - annualized return accounting for compounding
Expectancy — Sum of all returns / Trade count
— >0.20%: Excellent, >0%: Positive edge
— Average return per trade as percentage. Positive expectancy indicates profitable edge
Monthly Return — Net Profit / (Months in test)
— >0%: Profitable month average
— Average monthly return. Geometric monthly also shown in tooltip
Main Row — Trade Statistics (Columns 7-14)
Avg Duration — Average time in position per trade
— Mean holding period from entry to exit. Influenced by timeframe and trading style
Max CW — Longest consecutive winning streak
— Maximum consecutive wins. Expected value = ln(trades) / ln(1/winRate)
Max CL — Longest consecutive losing streak
— Maximum consecutive losses. Important for psychological risk tolerance
Win Rate — Wins / Total Trades
— Higher is better
— Percentage of profitable trades. Breakeven win rate shown in tooltip
BE Rate — Breakeven Trades / Total Trades
— Lower is better
— Percentage of trades that broke even (neither profit nor loss)
Loss Rate — Losses / Total Trades
— Lower is better
— Percentage of unprofitable trades. Together with win rate and BE rate, sums to 100%
Frequency — Trades per month
— Trading activity level. Displays intelligently (e.g., "12/mo", "1.5/wk", "3/day")
Exposure — Time in market / Total time × 100
— Lower = less risk
— Percentage of time the strategy had open positions
Main Row — Risk Metrics (Columns 15-22)
Sharpe Ratio — (Return - Rf) / StdDev × sqrt(Periods)
— >=3: Excellent, >=2: Good, >=1: Fair, <1: Poor
— Measures risk-adjusted return using total volatility. Annualized using sqrt(252) for daily
Sortino Ratio — (Return - Rf) / DownsideDev × sqrt(Periods)
— >=2: Excellent, >=1: Good, <1: Needs improvement
— Similar to Sharpe but only penalizes downside volatility. Can be higher than Sharpe
Max DD — (Peak - Trough) / Peak × 100
— <5%: Excellent, 5-15%: Moderate, 15-30%: High, >30%: Severe
— Largest peak-to-trough decline in equity. Critical for risk tolerance and position sizing
RoR — Risk of Ruin probability
— <1%: Excellent, 1-5%: Acceptable, 5-10%: Elevated, >10%: Dangerous
— Probability of losing entire trading account based on win rate and payoff ratio
R² — R-squared of equity curve vs. time
— >=0.95: Excellent, 0.90-0.95: Good, 0.80-0.90: Moderate, <0.80: Erratic
— Coefficient of determination measuring linearity of equity growth
MAR — CAGR / |Max Drawdown|
— Higher is better, negative = bad
— Calmar Ratio. Reward relative to worst-case loss. Negative if max DD exceeds CAGR
CVaR — Average of returns below VaR threshold
— Lower absolute is better
— Conditional Value at Risk (Expected Shortfall). Average loss in worst 5% of outcomes
p-value — Binomial test probability
— <0.05: Significant, 0.05-0.10: Marginal, >0.10: Likely random
— Probability that observed results are due to chance. Low p-value means statistically significant edge
Complementary Row — Extended Metrics
Compounding — (Compounded Return / Total Return) × 100
— Percentage of total profit attributable to compounding (position sizing)
Avg Win — Sum of wins / Win count
— Average profitable trade return in percentage
Avg Trade — Sum of all returns / Total trades
— Same as Expectancy (Column 5). Displayed here for convenience
Avg Loss — Sum of losses / Loss count
— Average unprofitable trade return in percentage (negative value)
Martin Ratio — CAGR / Ulcer Index
— Similar to Calmar but uses Ulcer Index instead of Max DD
Rolling Expectancy — Mean of rolling window expectancies
— Average expectancy calculated across rolling windows. Shows consistency of edge
Avg W Dur — Avg duration of winning trades
— Average time from entry to exit for winning trades only
Max Eq — Highest equity value reached
— Peak equity achieved during backtest
Min Eq — Lowest equity value reached
— Trough equity point. Important for understanding worst-case absolute loss
Buy & Hold — (Close_last / Close_first - 1) × 100
— >0%: Passive profit
— Return of simply buying and holding the asset from backtest start to end
Alpha — Strategy CAGR - Benchmark CAGR
— >0: Has skill (beats benchmark)
— Excess return above passive benchmark. Positive alpha indicates genuine value-added skill
Beta — Covariance(Strategy, Benchmark) / Variance(Benchmark)
— <1: Less volatile than market, >1: More volatile
— Systematic risk correlation with benchmark
Avg L Dur — Avg duration of losing trades
— Average time from entry to exit for losing trades only
Rolling Sharpe/Sortino — Dynamic based on win rate
— >2: Good consistency
— Rolling metric across sliding windows. Shows Sharpe if win rate >50%, Sortino if <=50%
Curr DD — Current drawdown from peak
— Lower is better
— Present drawdown percentage. Zero means at new equity high
DAR — CAGR adjusted for target DD
— Higher is better
— Drawdown-Adjusted Return. DAR^5 = CAGR if max DD = 5%
Kurtosis — Fourth moment / StdDev^4 - 3
— ~0: Normal, >0: Fat tails, <0: Thin tails
— Measures "tailedness" of return distribution (excess kurtosis)
Skewness — Third moment / StdDev^3
— >0: Positive skew (big wins), <0: Negative skew (big losses)
— Return distribution asymmetry
VaR — 5th percentile of returns
— Lower absolute is better
— Value at Risk at 95% confidence. Maximum expected loss in worst 5% of outcomes
Ulcer — sqrt(mean(drawdown^2))
— Lower is better
— Ulcer Index - root mean square of drawdowns. Penalizes both depth AND duration
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█ MONTE CARLO SIMULATION
Purpose
Monte Carlo simulation tests strategy robustness by randomizing the order of trades while keeping trade returns unchanged. This simulates alternative equity curves to assess outcome variability.
Method
Extract all historical trade returns
Randomly shuffle the sequence (1000+ iterations)
Calculate cumulative equity for each shuffle
Build distribution of final outcomes
Output
The stress test table shows:
Median Outcome: 50th percentile result
5th Percentile: Worst 5% of outcomes
95th Percentile: Best 95% of outcomes
Success Rate: Percentage of simulations that were profitable
Interpretation
If 95% of simulations are profitable: Strategy is robust
If median is far from actual result: High variance/unreliability
If 5th percentile shows large loss: High tail risk
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█ WALK-FORWARD ANALYSIS
Purpose
Walk-Forward Analysis (WFA) is the gold standard for detecting strategy overfitting. It simulates real-world trading by dividing historical data into rolling "training" (in-sample) and "validation" (out-of-sample) periods. A strategy that performs well on unseen data is more likely to succeed in live trading.
Method
The implementation uses a non-overlapping window approach following AmiBroker's gold standard methodology:
Segment Calculation: Total trades divided into N windows (default: 12), IS = ~75%, OOS = ~25%, Step = OOS length
Window Structure: Each window has IS (training) followed by OOS (validation). Each OOS becomes the next window's IS (rolling forward)
Metrics Calculated: CAGR, Sharpe, Sortino, MaxDD, Win Rate, Expectancy, Profit Factor, Payoff
Aggregation: IS metrics averaged across all IS periods, OOS metrics averaged across all OOS periods
Output
IS CAGR: In-sample annualized return
OOS CAGR: Out-of-sample annualized return ( THE key metric )
IS/OOS Sharpe: In/out-of-sample risk-adjusted return
Success Rate: % of OOS windows that were profitable
Interpretation
Robust: IS/OOS CAGR gap <20%, OOS Success Rate >80%
Some Overfitting: CAGR gap 20-50%, Success Rate 50-80%
Severe Overfitting: CAGR gap >50%, Success Rate <50%
Key Principles:
OOS is what matters — Only OOS predicts live performance
Consistency > Magnitude — 10% IS / 9% OOS beats 30% IS / 5% OOS
Window count — More windows = more reliable validation
Non-overlapping OOS — Prevents data leakage
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█ TABLE DISPLAY
Main Table — Organized into three sections:
Performance Metrics (Cols 0-6): Net Profit, Payoff, Sample Size, Profit Factor, CAGR, Expectancy, Monthly
Trade Statistics (Cols 7-14): Avg Duration, Max CW, Max CL, Win, BE, Loss, Frequency, Exposure
Risk Metrics (Cols 15-22): Sharpe, Sortino, Max DD, RoR, R², MAR, CVaR, p-value
Color Coding
🟢 Green: Excellent performance
🟠 Orange: Acceptable performance
⚪ Gray: Neutral / Fair
🔴 Red: Poor performance
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█ IMPLEMENTATION NOTES
Data Source: All metrics calculated from strategy.closedtrades , ensuring compatibility with any Pine Script strategy
Calculation Timing: All calculations occur on barstate.islastconfirmedhistory to optimize performance
Limitations: Requires at least 1 closed trade for basic metrics, 30+ trades for reliable statistical analysis
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█ QUICK NOTES
➙ This library has been developed and refined over two years of real-world strategy testing. Every calculation has been validated against industry-standard quantitative finance references.
➙ The entire codebase is thoroughly documented inline. If you are curious about how a metric is calculated or want to understand the implementation details, dive into the source code -- it is written to be read and learned from.
➙ This description focuses on usage and concepts rather than exhaustively listing every exported type and function. The library source code is thoroughly documented inline -- explore it to understand implementation details and internal logic.
➙ All calculations execute on barstate.islastconfirmedhistory to minimize runtime overhead. The library is designed for efficiency without sacrificing accuracy.
➙ Beyond analysis, this library serves as a learning resource. Study the source code to understand quantitative finance concepts, Pine Script advanced techniques, and proper statistical methodology.
➙ Metrics are their own not binary good/bad indicators. A high Sharpe ratio with low sample size is misleading. A deep drawdown during a market crash may be acceptable. Study each function and metric individually -- evaluate your strategy contextually, not by threshold alone.
➙ All strategies face alpha decay over time. Instead of over-optimizing a single strategy on one timeframe and market, build a diversified portfolio across multiple markets and timeframes. Deeptest helps you validate each component so you can combine robust strategies into a trading portfolio.
➙ Screenshots shown in the documentation are solely for visual representation to demonstrate how the tables and metrics will be displayed. Please do not compare your strategy's performance with the metrics shown in these screenshots -- they are illustrative examples only, not performance targets or benchmarks.
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█ HOW-TO
Using Deeptest is intentionally straightforward. Just import the library and call DT.runDeeptest() at the end of your strategy code in main scope. .
//@version=6
strategy("My Strategy", overlay=true)
// Import the library
import Fractalyst/Deeptest/1 as DT
// Your strategy logic
fastMA = ta.sma(close, 10)
slowMA = ta.sma(close, 30)
if ta.crossover(fastMA, slowMA)
strategy.entry("Long", strategy.long)
if ta.crossunder(fastMA, slowMA)
strategy.close("Long")
// Run the analysis
DT.runDeeptest()
And yes... it's compatible with any TradingView Strategy! 🪄
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█ CREDITS
Author: @Fractalyst
Font Library: by @fikira - @kaigouthro - @Duyck
Community: Inspired by the @PineCoders community initiative, encouraging developers to contribute open-source libraries and continuously enhance the Pine Script ecosystem for all traders.
if you find Deeptest valuable in your trading journey, feel free to use it in your strategies and give a shoutout to @Fractalyst -- Your recognition directly supports ongoing development and open-source contributions to Pine Script.
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█ DISCLAIMER
This library is provided for educational and research purposes. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always test thoroughly and use proper risk management. The author is not responsible for any trading losses incurred through the use of this code.
FX Rate Bias US vs EU 2YFX Rate Bias – US vs EU (2Y)
This indicator provides a macro bias framework for FX markets by tracking the 2-year government bond yield differential between the United States and Germany.
Rather than displaying the spread as a raw calculation, the script translates interest-rate expectations into a clear directional bias, helping traders understand which currency currently holds a rate advantage.
The 2Y segment of the yield curve is highly sensitive to:
Central bank expectations
Forward guidance
Shifts in short-term monetary policy outlook
How to use
Positive spread → USD rate advantage
Negative spread → EUR rate advantage
Designed to be used as a contextual macro tool, this indicator helps align technical setups with broader monetary conditions.
It is not intended as a standalone entry or signal generator.
MADZ - Moving Average Deviation Z-ScoreMADZ - Moving Average Deviation Z-Score
MADZ is a powerful valuation oscillator that measures how far the current price has deviated from a user-selected moving average, expressed in statistical terms as a Z-Score. This normalization makes it easier to identify overvalued and undervalued conditions across different assets, timeframes, and market environments.
Overview
The indicator works by:
Calculating the percentage deviation of price from a customizable moving average (SMA, EMA, WMA, VWMA, HMA, or RMA).
Applying a Z-Score transformation to this deviation over a chosen lookback period — showing how many standard deviations the current deviation is from its historical average. Smoothing the result for a clean, responsive oscillator centered around zero.
Positive values indicate price is trading above the moving average (potentially overvalued), while negative values suggest price is below (potentially undervalued). The further from zero, the greater the relative valuation extreme.
Key Features
Customizable base moving average (type and length)
Z-Score normalization for statistically meaningful readings
Final smoothing for reduced noise
Static overbought/oversold levels (default ±1.5) — line changes color when crossed (red above, green below)
Dynamic extreme bands (±3σ) — optional display of bands calculated from the oscillator’s own volatility over a user-defined period
Extreme zone highlighting — background shading activates only during truly rare valuation events
Extreme Zone Highlighting Explained
The highlighted extreme zones (background shading) are not based on the fixed static levels. Instead, they signal statistically significant outliers using dynamic bands:
Overbought extreme zone (red background): Triggered when MADZ rises above the upper dynamic band (+3 standard deviations of the MADZ line itself over the dynamic length period).
Oversold extreme zone (green background): Triggered when MADZ falls below the lower dynamic band (-3 standard deviations).
These ±3σ bands adapt to the recent behavior of the oscillator. Because they represent three standard deviations from the mean of MADZ, crossings are rare and often precede major reversals or trend accelerations — making them valuable for spotting potential turning points in valuation extremes.
How to Use
Use zero-line crosses for trend changes or mean-reversion setups.
Watch static level crossings (±1.5 default) for early overbought/oversold warnings.
Pay special attention to extreme zone shading — these highlight high-conviction valuation dislocations that may offer superior risk/reward opportunities.
Designed on the BTC chart, but can be used on other assets.
Settings
Moving Average Settings: Type, length, source
Z-Score & Smoothing: Lookback period and smoothing length
Threshold Levels: Static overbought/oversold thresholds
Display Options: Toggle dynamic bands and extreme background highlighting
This is an educational tool designed to aid in valuation analysis. The information provided is not financial advice. Always conduct your own research and consider multiple factors before making trading decisions. Trade at your own risk.
