Nifty 1m EMA Pullback Scalper Signals
### **Master the Market with the Sniper Scalping Strategy for Nifty (1-Minute Timeframe)**
Unlock the power of precision trading with this expertly crafted **Sniper Scalping Strategy**, designed specifically for the Nifty index on a lightning-fast 1-minute timeframe. Perfect for traders who thrive on quick decisions and small, consistent profits, this strategy combines multiple indicators to deliver razor-sharp entries and exits—ideal for India’s dynamic market.
#### **Why This Strategy Stands Out**
- **Pinpoint Accuracy**: Harness the synergy of the **5 EMA and 10 EMA crossover** to lock onto the short-term trend, while the **Stochastic Oscillator (14,3,3)** times your entries and exits with surgical precision.
- **Fast and Effective**: Tailored for the 1-minute chart, this strategy capitalizes on Nifty’s volatility, targeting **10-point profits** with a tight **5-point stop-loss**—keeping your risk low and rewards high.
- **Trend + Momentum**: Blend trend-following (EMAs) with momentum signals (Stochastic) for a robust, multi-dimensional approach that cuts through market noise.
#### **How It Works**
- **Buy Signal**: Enter long when the 5 EMA crosses above the 10 EMA and the Stochastic rises above 20—catching the uptrend at its sweet spot.
- **Sell Signal**: Go short when the 5 EMA dips below the 10 EMA and the Stochastic falls below 80—riding the downtrend with confidence.
- **Exit Like a Pro**: Take profits at 10 points or when the Stochastic hits overbought/oversold extremes, ensuring you’re in and out before the market shifts.
#### **Perfect for Nifty Scalpers**
Built for the fast-paced world of Nifty trading, this strategy shines during high-volatility sessions like the market open or global overlaps. Whether you’re a beginner honing your skills or a seasoned trader seeking consistency, the Sniper Scalping Strategy offers a clear, actionable framework to scalp profits with discipline and precision.
#### **Get Started**
Test it in a demo account, refine it to your style, and watch your scalping game soar. Trade smart, stay focused, and let the Sniper Scalping Strategy turn Nifty’s 1-minute moves into your edge!
ค้นหาในสคริปต์สำหรับ "scalping"
Adaptive Trend Breaks Adaptive Trend Breaks
## WHAT IT DOES
This script is a modified and enhanced version of "Trendline Breakouts With Targets" concept by ChartPrime.
Adaptive Trend Breaks (ATB) is a trendline breakout system optimized for scalping liquid futures contracts. The indicator automatically draws dynamic support and resistance trendlines based on pivot points, then generates trade signals when price breaks through these levels with confirmation filters. It includes automated target and stop-loss placement with real-time P&L tracking in dollars.
## HOW IT WORKS
**Trendline Detection Method:**
The indicator uses pivot high/low detection to identify significant price turning points. When a new pivot forms, it calculates the slope between consecutive pivots to draw dynamic trendlines. These lines extend forward based on the established trend angle, creating actionable support and resistance zones.
**Band System:**
Around each trendline, the script creates a "band" using a volatility-adjusted calculation: `ATR(14) * 0.2 * bandwidth multiplier / 2`. This adaptive band accounts for current market conditions - wider during volatile periods, tighter during quiet markets.
**Breakout Logic:**
A breakout signal triggers when:
1. Price closes beyond the trendline + band zone
2. Volume exceeds the 20-period moving average by your set multiplier (default 1.2x)
3. Price is within Regular Trading Hours (9:30-16:00 EST) if session filter enabled
4. Current ATR meets minimum volatility threshold (prevents trading dead markets)
**Target & Stop Calculation:**
Upon breakout confirmation:
- **Entry**: Trendline breach point
- **Target**: Entry ± (bandwidth × target multiplier) - default 8x for quick scalps
- **Stop**: Entry ± (bandwidth × stop multiplier) - default 8x for 1:1 risk/reward
- Multipliers adjust automatically to market volatility through the ATR-based band
**P&L Conversion:**
The script converts point movements to dollars using:
```
Dollar P&L = (Price Points × Contract Point Value × Quantity)
```
For example, a 10-point NQ move with 2 contracts = 10 × $20 × 2 = $400
## HOW TO USE IT
**Setup:**
1. Select your instrument (NQ/ES/YM/RTY) - point values auto-configure
2. Set contract quantity for accurate dollar P&L
3. Choose pivot period (lower = more signals but more noise, default 5 for scalping)
4. Adjust bandwidth multiplier if trendlines are too tight/loose (1-5 range)
**Filters Configuration:**
- **Volume Filter**: Requires breakout volume > moving average × multiplier. Increase multiplier (1.5-2.0) for higher conviction trades
- **Session Filter**: Enable to trade only RTH. Disable for 24-hour trading
- **ATR Filter**: Prevents signals during low volatility. Increase minimum % for more active markets only
**Risk Management:**
- Set target/stop multipliers based on your risk tolerance
- 8x bandwidth = approximately 1:1 risk/reward for most liquid futures
- Enable trailing stops for trend-following approach (moves stop to protect profits)
- Adjust line length to see targets further into the future
**Statistics Table:**
- Choose timeframe to analyze: all-time, today, this week, custom days
- Monitor win rate, profit factor, and net P&L in dollars
- Track long vs short performance separately
- See real-time unrealized P&L on active trades
**Reading Signals:**
- **Green triangle below bar** = Long breakout (resistance broken)
- **Red triangle above bar** = Short breakout (support broken)
- **White dashed line** = Entry price
- **Orange line** = Take profit target with dollar value
- **Red line** = Stop loss with dollar value
- **Green checkmark (✓)** = Target hit, winning trade
- **Red X (✗)** = Stop hit, losing trade
## WHAT IT DOES NOT DO
**Limitations to Understand:**
- Does not predict future trendline formations - it reacts to breakouts after they occur
- Historical trendlines disappear after breakout (not kept on chart for clarity)
- Requires sufficient volatility - may not signal in extremely quiet markets
- Volume filter requires exchange volume data (not available on all symbols)
- Statistics are indicator-based simulations, not actual trading results
- Does not account for slippage, commissions, or order fills
## BEST PRACTICES
**Recommended Settings by Market:**
- **NQ (Nasdaq)**: Default settings work well, consider volume multiplier 1.3-1.5
- **ES (S&P 500)**: Slightly slower, try period 7-8, volume 1.2
- **YM (Dow)**: Lower volatility, reduce bandwidth to 1.5-2
- **RTY (Russell)**: Higher volatility, increase bandwidth to 3-4
**Risk Management:**
- Never risk more than 2-3% of account per trade
- Use contract quantity calculator: Max Risk $ ÷ (Stop Distance × Point Value)
- Start with 1 contract while learning the system
- Backtest your specific timeframe and instrument before live trading
**Optimization Tips:**
- Increase pivot period (7-10) for fewer but higher-quality signals
- Raise volume multiplier (1.5-2.0) in choppy markets
- Lower target/stop multipliers (5-6x) for tighter profit taking
- Use trailing stops in strong trending conditions
- Disable session filter for overnight gaps and Asia session moves
## TECHNICAL DETAILS
**Key Calculations:**
- Pivot Detection: `ta.pivothigh(high, period, period/2)` and `ta.pivotlow(low, period, period/2)`
- Slope Calculation: `(newPivot - oldPivot) / (newTime - oldTime)`
- Adaptive Band: `min(ATR(14) * 0.2, close * 0.002) * multiplier / 2`
- Breakout Confirmation: Price crosses trendline + 10% of band threshold
**Data Requirements:**
- Minimum bars in view: 500 for proper pivot calculation
- Volume data required for volume filter accuracy
- Intraday timeframes recommended (1min - 15min) for scalping
- Works on any timeframe but optimized for fast execution
**Performance Metrics:**
All statistics calculate based on indicator signals:
- Tracks every signal as a trade from entry to TP/SL
- P&L in actual contract dollar values
- Win rate = (Winning trades / Total trades) × 100
- Profit factor = Gross profit / Gross loss
- Separates long/short performance for bias analysis
## IDEAL FOR
- Futures scalpers and day traders
- Traders who prefer visual trendline breakouts
- Those wanting automated TP/SL placement
- Traders tracking performance in dollar terms
- Multiple timeframe analysis (compare 1min vs 5min signals)
## NOT SUITABLE FOR
- Swing trading (targets too close)
- Stocks/forex without modifying point values
- Extremely low timeframes (<30 seconds) - too much noise
- Markets without volume data if using volume filter
- Illiquid contracts (signals may not execute at shown prices)
---
**Settings Summary:**
- Core: Period, bandwidth, extension, trendline style
- Filters: Volume, RTH session, ATR volatility
- Risk: R:R ratio, target/stop multipliers, trailing stop
- Display: Stats table position, size, colors
- Stats: Timeframe selection (all-time to custom days)
**License:** This indicator is published open-source under Mozilla Public License 2.0. You may use and modify the code with proper attribution.
**Disclaimer:** This indicator is for educational purposes. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always practice proper risk management and test thoroughly before live trading.
---
## CREDITS & ATTRIBUTION
This script builds upon the "Trendline Breakouts With Targets" concept by ChartPrime with significant enhancements:
**Major Improvements Added:**
- **Futures-Specific Calculations**: Automated dollar P&L conversion using actual contract point values (NQ=$20, ES=$50, YM=$5, RTY=$50)
- **Advanced Statistics Engine**: Comprehensive performance tracking with customizable timeframe analysis (today, week, month, custom ranges)
- **Multi-Layer Filtering System**: Volume confirmation, RTH session filter, and ATR volatility filter to reduce false signals
- **Professional Trade Management**: Enhanced visual trade tracking with separate TP/SL lines, dollar value labels, and optional trailing stops
- **Optimized for Scalping**: Faster pivot periods (5 vs 10), tighter bands, and reduced extension bars for quick entries
Original trendline detection methodology by ChartPrime - used with modification under Mozilla Public License 2.0.
Not Your Daddy's EMA CrossoverNot Your Daddy's EMA Crossover - Quick Guide
What It Does
This isn't your typical 50/200 EMA crossover. It uses academically-proven, optimized EMA periods specifically backtested for crypto markets. Instead of generic settings, it adapts to different trading styles with research-backed parameter combinations that have demonstrated real returns.
Core Logic
Enters when fast EMA crosses slow EMA in the trend direction (confirmed by 200 SMA filter)
Exits either on opposite EMA cross (trend-following) or at fixed profit targets (scalping)
Uses a 200 SMA to filter trades - only longs above it, only shorts below it
Key Settings & Toggles
1. Trading Style (Auto-adjusts EMA periods):
"15 Min Scalping": 9/21 EMA - Fast-paced, frequent signals
"1 Hour Swing": 13/48 EMA - For swing trading
"Daily Trend": 15/150 MA - Captured +97.87% in bull runs
2. Entry Method:
"Crossover Entry": Enters immediately on EMA cross
"Pullback to EMA Entry": Waits for first pullback to slow EMA (better risk/reward)
3. Exit Method:
"EMA Cross Exit": Trend-following, lets winners run until EMAs reverse
"Fixed % Target (Scalping)": Quick 0.5-1% profits with tight stops
4. Optional Features:
MACD Confirmation: Adds 6-15-1 MACD filter for higher-probability setups
Periodic Compounding: Compounds every 30 hours (research shows 1-30 hour compounding is optimal)
Recommended Timeframes
📊 Match your chart to your selection:
Select "15 Min Scalping" → Use 15-minute chart
Select "1 Hour Swing" → Use 1-hour chart
Select "Daily Trend" → Use daily chart
I personally like this on the daily, which coincidentally is printing a long signal today on Bitcoin.
Enjoy!
IST 4H Candle Boxes (5m)highlights forex 4h session in IST. Works for scalping with 4h bias.
highlights forex 4h session in IST. Works for scalping with 4h bias.
highlights forex 4h session in IST. Works for scalping with 4h bias.
highlights forex 4h session in IST. Works for scalping with 4h bias.
Market Matrix ViewThis technical indicator is designed to provide traders with a quick and integrated view of market dynamics by combining several popular indicators into a single tool. It's not a magic bullet, but a practical aid for analyzing buying/selling pressure, trends, volume, and divergences, saving you time in the decision-making process. Built for flexibility, the indicator adapts to various trading styles (scalping, swing, or long-term) and offers customizable settings to suit your needs.
🟡 Multi-Timeframe Trends
➤ This section displays the trend direction (bullish, bearish, or neutral) across 15-minute, 1-hour, 4-hour, and Daily timeframes, providing multi-timeframe market context. Timeframes lower than the one currently selected will show "N/A."
➤It utilizes fast and slow Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) for each timeframe:
15m: Fast EMA 42, Slow EMA 170
1h: Fast EMA 40, Slow EMA 100
4h: Fast EMA 36, Slow EMA 107
Daily: Fast EMA 20, Slow EMA 60
🟡 Smart Flow & RVOL
➤ This section displays "Buying Pressure" or "Selling Pressure" signals based on indicator confluence, alongside volume activity ("High Activity," "Normal Activity," or "Low Activity").
➤ Smart Flow combines Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) and Money Flow Index (MFI) to detect buying/selling pressure. CMF measures money flow based on price position within the high-low range, while MFI analyzes money flow considering typical price and volume. A signal is generated only when both indicators simultaneously increase/decrease beyond an adjustable threshold ("Buy/Sell Sensitivity") and volume exceeds a Simple Moving Average (SMA) scaled by the "Volume Multiplier."
➤ RVOL (Relative Volume) calculates relative volume separately for bullish and bearish candles, comparing recent volume (fast SMA) with a reference volume (slow SMA). Thresholds are adjusted based on the selected mode.
🟡 ADX & RSI
This section displays trend strength ("Strong," "Moderate," or "Weak"), its direction ("Bullish" or "Bearish"), and the RSI momentum status ("Overbought," "Oversold," "Buy/Sell Momentum," or "Neutral").
➤ ADX (Average Directional Index) measures trend strength (above 40 = "Strong," 20–40 = "Moderate," below 20 = "Weak"). Direction is determined by comparing +DI (upward movement) with -DI (downward movement). Additionally, an arrow indicates whether the trend's strength is decreasing or increasing.
➤RSI (Relative Strength Index) evaluates price momentum. Extreme levels (above 80/85 = "Overbought," below 15/20 = "Oversold") and intermediate zones (47–53 = "Neutral," above 53 = "Buy Momentum," below 47 = "Sell Momentum") are adjusted based on the selected mode.
🟡 When these signals are active for a potential trade setup, the table's background lights up green or red, respectively.
🟡 Volume Spikes
➤This feature highlights bars with significantly higher volume than the recent average, coloring them yellow on the chart to draw attention to intense market activity.
➤It uses the Z-Score method to detect volume anomalies. Current volume is compared to a 10-bar Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the standard deviation of volume over the same period. If the Z-Score exceeds a certain threshold, the bar is marked as a volume spike.
🟡 Divergences (Volume Divergence Detection)
➤ This feature marks divergences between price and technical indicators on the chart, using diamond-shaped labels (green for bullish divergences, red for bearish divergences) to signal potential trend reversals.
➤ It compares price deviations from a Simple Moving Average (SMA) with deviations of three indicators: Chaikin Money Flow (CMF), Money Flow Index (MFI), and On-Balance Volume (OBV). A bullish divergence occurs when price falls below its average, but CMF, MFI, and OBV rise above their averages, indicating hidden accumulation. A bearish divergence occurs when price rises above its average, but CMF, MFI, and OBV fall, suggesting distribution. The length of the moving averages is adjustable (default 13/10/5 bars for Scalping/Balanced/Swing), and detection thresholds are scaled by "Divergence Sensitivity" (default 1.0).
🟡 Adaptive Stop-Loss (ATR)
➤Draws dynamic stop-loss lines (red, dashed) on the chart for buy or sell signals, helping traders manage risk.Uses the Average True Range (ATR) to calculate stop-loss levels, set at low/high ± ATR × multiplier
🟡 Alerts for trend direction changes in the Info Panel:
➤ Triggers notifications when the trend shifts to Bullish (when +DI crosses above -DI) or Bearish (when +DI crosses below -DI), helping you stay informed about key market shifts.
How to use: Set alerts in Trading View for “Trend Changed to Bullish” or “Trend Changed to Bearish” with “Once Per Bar Close” for reliable signals.
🟡 Settings (Inputs)
➤ The indicator offers customizable settings to fit your trading style, but it's already optimized for Scalping (1m–15m), Balanced (16m–3h59m), and Swing (4h–Daily) modes, which automatically adjust based on the selected timeframe. The visible inputs allow you to adjust the following parameters:
Show Info Panel: Enables/disables the information panel (default: enabled).
Show Volume Spikes: Turns on/off coloring for volume spike bars (default: enabled).
Spike Sensitivity: Controls the Z-Score threshold for detecting volume spikes (default: 2.0; lower values increase signal frequency).
Show Divergence: Enables/disables the display of divergence labels (default: enabled).
Divergence Sensitivity: Adjusts the thresholds for divergence detection (default: 1.0; higher values reduce sensitivity).
Divergence Lookback Length: Sets the length of the moving averages used for divergences (default: 5, automatically adjusted to 13/10/5 for Scalping/Balanced/Swing).
RVOL Reference Period: Defines the reference period for relative volume (default: 20, automatically adjusted to 7/15/20).
RSI Length: Sets the RSI length (default: 14, automatically adjusted to 5/10/14).
Buy Sensitivity: Controls the increase threshold for Buying Pressure signals (default: 0.007; higher values reduce frequency).
Sell Sensitivity: Controls the decrease threshold for Selling Pressure signals (default: 0.007; higher values reduce frequency).
Volume Multiplier (B/S Pressure): Adjusts the volume threshold for Smart Flow signals (default: 0.6; higher values require greater volume).
🟡 This indicator is created to simplify market analysis, but I am not a professional in Pine Script or technical indicators. This indicator is not a standalone solution. For optimal results, it must be integrated into a well-defined trading strategy that includes risk management and other confirmations.
RSI + Fibonacci HH LL Support Resistance I have integrated my past scripts and brushed them up further.
This tool allows for support/resistance, stop loss, take profit, and trend analysis using RSI and Fibonacci ratios.
For example, the Fibonacci ratio is used as follows
l1 = m - dist * 0.618
l2 = m - dist * 1.618
l3 = m - dist * 2.618
l4 = m - dist * 4.235
l5 = m - dist * 6.857
l6 = m - dist * 11.089
When the Fibonacci ratio reaches 2.618 or higher and the RSI smoothed by the 5-day EMA is oversold/overbought, the bar color is changed by a gradation.
We have tried to make the design as beautiful and good-looking as possible. You can also hide the lines to suit your own preference.
Example usages are here:
BTCUSDT 1Hour Chart
Using Fibonacci numbers
BTCUSDT 15min Chart, for Scalping
Here, to set the highest and lowest prices one hour ago, "4" is substituted as the calculation: 15 minutes x 4 = 60
BTCUSDT 15min Chart, for Scalping
To set the highest and lowest prices 4 hours ago , "4" is substituted as the calculation: 15 minutes x 16 = 240
BTCUSDT 15min Chart, for Scalping
To draw yesterday's high and low as support/resistance lines, I substituted the number "96" as 1440/15=96.
BTCUSDT 1min Chart, for Scalping
Substituted "60" to trail the highest and lowest prices over a 60-minute period on a 1-minute chart, and removed lines to beautify
BTCUSDT 1day Chart, for Long-Term Investers
This is an example of using "90" because it is a 1-day chart and assumes that 3 months = 90 days in order to trail the highest and lowest prices over a 3-month period and no lines.
My past scripts are here:
RSI + FIB HH LL StopLoss Finder／Contrarian Trades
Fibonacci HH LL TRAMA Band
ROC_PA_Strategy (A3Sh)Hi there,
An experiment with rate of price change in combination with price averaging. The strategy is inspired by Price Change Scalping Strategy developed by Prosum Solutions and Scalping Dips On Trend Strategy developed by Coinrule. Both strategies look at the percentage of price change to open orders.
When the price drops beyond a specified percentage, a order entry threshold (yellow line) is setup. The order entry threshold is only active for a specified number of bars and will de-activate when not crossed within the specified number of bars. When the price drops further and crosses the entry threshold with a minimum of a specified percentage, a long position is entered. The same reverse logic (white line) used to close the long position.
I first ran the strategy without stop loss and take profit and that worked very well in a bullish market. I later added stop loss and take profit and that seems to work better in a side ways or bearisch market. There are a lot of tweaking possibilities in the settings.
In the settings you can specify the percentage of portfolio to use for each trade to spread the risk and for each order a trading fee of 0.075% is calculated.
EMA SCALPEUR SHORTI'm trying to find the best EMA's for scalpingm you are able to choose 2 differents EMAs for your enter and 2 differents EMAs for you exit.
It's putting entry and exit on the graph
Capns Bollinger Bands MTF This Simple Script display higher time frame Bollinger Band on current resolution . Etc : On 1 Minutes chart BB Band is 5 Minutes Band. I use this code on my pc for scalping...Hope You like the idea
ADX Color Change by BehemothI find this tool to be the most valuable and accurate entry point indicator along with moving averages and the VWAP.
ADX Color Indicator - Controls & Intraday Trading Benefits
Indicator Controls:
1. ADX Length (default: 14)
- Controls the calculation period for ADX
- Lower values (7-10) = more sensitive, faster signals (better for scalping)
- Higher values (14-20) = smoother, fewer false signals (better for swing trades)
- *Intraday tip:* Try 10-14 for most intraday timeframes
2. Show Threshold Levels (default: On)
- Displays the 20 and 25 horizontal lines
- Helps you quickly identify when ADX crosses key strength levels
3. Use Custom Timeframe (default: Off)
- Allows viewing higher timeframe ADX on lower timeframe charts
- *Example:* Trade on 5-min chart but see 15-min or 1-hour ADX
4. Custom Timeframe
- Select any timeframe: 1m, 5m, 15m, 30m, 1H, 4H, D, etc.
- *Intraday tip:* Use 15m or 1H ADX on 5m charts for better trend context
5. Show +DI and -DI (default: Off)
- Shows directional movement indicators
- Green line (+DI) > Red line (-DI) = bullish trend
- Red line (-DI) > Green line (+DI) = bearish trend
6. Show Background Zon es (default: Off)
- Visual background colors for quick trend strength identification
- Green = strong trend (ADX > 25)
- Yellow = moderate trend (ADX 20-25)
Intraday Trading Benefits:
1. Avoid Choppy Markets
- When ADX < 20 (no background color), market is ranging
- Reduces false breakout trades and whipsaws
- Save time and capital by stepping aside during low-quality setups
2. Identify High-Probability Trend Trades
- **Green line + Green zone** = strong trend building, look for pullback entries
- Yellow line crossing above 20 = early trend formation signal
- Catch trends early when ADX starts rising from below 20
3. Multi-Timeframe Analysis
- Use custom timeframe to align with higher timeframe trends
- *Example:* If 1H ADX shows green (strong trend), take breakout trades on 5m chart in same direction
- Increases win rate by trading with the bigger picture
4. Exit Signals
- When ADX turns red (falling), trend is weakening
- Consider tightening stops or taking profits
- Avoid entering new positions when ADX is declining
5. Quick Visual Confirmation
- Color coding eliminates need to analyze numbers
- Instant recognition: Green = go, Yellow = caution, Red = trend dying
- Faster decision-making during fast market moves
6. Scalping Strategy
- Set ADX length to 7-10 for sensitive signals
- Only scalp when ADX is rising (blue, yellow, or green)
- Exit when ADX turns red
7. Breakout Confirmation
- Wait for ADX to rise above 20 after a breakout
- Filters false breakouts in ranging markets
- Yellow or green color confirms momentum behind the move
Optimal Intraday Settings:
- Day Trading (5-15 min charts):** ADX Length = 10-14
- Scalping (1-5 min charts):** ADX Length = 7-10, watch custom 15m timeframe
- Swing Intraday (30min-1H charts):** ADX Length = 14-20
Simple Trading Rules:
✅ Trade: ADX rising + above 20 (yellow or green)
⚠️ Caution: ADX flat or just crossed 20
❌ Avoid:*ADX falling (red) or below 20
The key advantage is staying out of low-quality, choppy price action which is where most intraday traders lose money!
Kalman VWAP Filter [BackQuant]Kalman VWAP Filter
A precision-engineered price estimator that fuses Kalman filtering with the Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP) to create a smooth, adaptive representation of fair value. This hybrid model intelligently balances responsiveness and stability, tracking trend shifts with minimal noise while maintaining a statistically grounded link to volume distribution.
If you would like to see my original Kalman Filter, please find it here:
Concept overview
The Kalman VWAP Filter is built on two core ideas from quantitative finance and control theory:
Kalman filtering — a recursive Bayesian estimator used to infer the true underlying state of a noisy system (in this case, fair price).
VWAP anchoring — a dynamic reference that weights price by traded volume, representing where the majority of transactions have occurred.
By merging these concepts, the filter produces a line that behaves like a "smart moving average": smooth when noise is high, fast when markets trend, and self-adjusting based on both market structure and user-defined noise parameters.
How it works
Measurement blend : Combines the chosen Price Source (e.g., close or hlc3) with either a Session VWAP or a Rolling VWAP baseline. The VWAP Weight input controls how much the filter trusts traded volume versus price movement.
Kalman recursion : Each bar updates an internal "state estimate" using the Kalman gain, which determines how much to trust new observations vs. the prior state.
Noise parameters :
Process Noise controls agility — higher values make the filter more responsive but also more volatile.
Measurement Noise controls smoothness — higher values make it steadier but slower to adapt.
Filter order (N) : Defines how many parallel state estimates are used. Larger orders yield smoother output by layering multiple one-dimensional Kalman passes.
Final output : A refined price trajectory that captures VWAP-adjusted fair value while dynamically adjusting to real-time volatility and order flow.
Why this matters
Most smoothing techniques (EMA, SMA, Hull) trade off lag for smoothness. Kalman filtering, however, adaptively rebalances that tradeoff each bar using probabilistic weighting, allowing it to follow market state changes more efficiently. Anchoring it to VWAP integrates microstructure context — capturing where liquidity truly lies rather than only where price moves.
Use cases
Trend tracking : Color-coded candle painting highlights shifts in slope direction, revealing early trend transitions.
Fair value mapping : The line represents a continuously updated equilibrium price between raw price action and VWAP flow.
Adaptive moving average replacement : Outperforms static MAs in variable volatility regimes by self-adjusting smoothness.
Execution & reversion logic : When price diverges from the Kalman VWAP, it may indicate short-term imbalance or overextension relative to volume-adjusted fair value.
Cross-signal framework : Use with standard VWAP or other filters to identify convergence or divergence between liquidity-weighted and state-estimated prices.
Parameter guidance
Process Noise : 0.01–0.05 for swing traders, 0.1–0.2 for intraday scalping.
Measurement Noise : 2–5 for normal use, 8+ for very smooth tracking.
VWAP Weight : 0.2–0.4 balances both price and VWAP influence; 1.0 locks output directly to VWAP dynamics.
Filter Order (N) : 3–5 for reactive short-term filters; 8–10 for smoother institutional-style baselines.
Interpretation
When price > Kalman VWAP and slope is positive → bullish pressure; buyers dominate above fair value.
When price < Kalman VWAP and slope is negative → bearish pressure; sellers dominate below fair value.
Convergence of price and Kalman VWAP often signals equilibrium; strong divergence suggests imbalance.
Crosses between Kalman VWAP and the base VWAP can hint at shifts in short-term vs. long-term liquidity control.
Summary
The Kalman VWAP Filter blends statistical estimation with market microstructure awareness, offering a refined alternative to static smoothing indicators. It adapts in real time to volatility and order flow, helping traders visualize balance, transition, and momentum through a lens of probabilistic fair value rather than simple price averaging.
Ehlers Autocorrelation Periodogram (EACP)# EACP: Ehlers Autocorrelation Periodogram
## Overview and Purpose
Developed by John F. Ehlers (Technical Analysis of Stocks & Commodities, Sep 2016), the Ehlers Autocorrelation Periodogram (EACP) estimates the dominant market cycle by projecting normalized autocorrelation coefficients onto Fourier basis functions. The indicator blends a roofing filter (high-pass + Super Smoother) with a compact periodogram, yielding low-latency dominant cycle detection suitable for adaptive trading systems. Compared with Hilbert-based methods, the autocorrelation approach resists aliasing and maintains stability in noisy price data.
EACP answers a central question in cycle analysis: “What period currently dominates the market?” It prioritizes spectral power concentration, enabling downstream tools (adaptive moving averages, oscillators) to adjust responsively without the lag present in sliding-window techniques.
## Core Concepts
* **Roofing Filter:** High-pass plus Super Smoother combination removes low-frequency drift while limiting aliasing.
* **Pearson Autocorrelation:** Computes normalized lag correlation to remove amplitude bias.
* **Fourier Projection:** Sums cosine and sine terms of autocorrelation to approximate spectral energy.
* **Gain Normalization:** Automatic gain control prevents stale peaks from dominating power estimates.
* **Warmup Compensation:** Exponential correction guarantees valid output from the very first bar.
## Implementation Notes
**This is not a strict implementation of the TASC September 2016 specification.** It is a more advanced evolution combining the core 2016 concept with techniques Ehlers introduced later. The fundamental Wiener-Khinchin theorem (power spectral density = Fourier transform of autocorrelation) is correctly implemented, but key implementation details differ:
### Differences from Original 2016 TASC Article
1. **Dominant Cycle Calculation:**
- **2016 TASC:** Uses peak-finding to identify the period with maximum power
- **This Implementation:** Uses Center of Gravity (COG) weighted average over bins where power ≥ 0.5
- **Rationale:** COG provides smoother transitions and reduces susceptibility to noise spikes
2. **Roofing Filter:**
- **2016 TASC:** Simple first-order high-pass filter
- **This Implementation:** Canonical 2-pole high-pass with √2 factor followed by Super Smoother bandpass
- **Formula:** `hp := (1-α/2)²·(p-2p +p ) + 2(1-α)·hp - (1-α)²·hp `
- **Rationale:** Evolved filtering provides better attenuation and phase characteristics
3. **Normalized Power Reporting:**
- **2016 TASC:** Reports peak power across all periods
- **This Implementation:** Reports power specifically at the dominant period
- **Rationale:** Provides more meaningful correlation between dominant cycle strength and normalized power
4. **Automatic Gain Control (AGC):**
- Uses decay factor `K = 10^(-0.15/diff)` where `diff = maxPeriod - minPeriod`
- Ensures K < 1 for proper exponential decay of historical peaks
- Prevents stale peaks from dominating current power estimates
### Performance Characteristics
- **Complexity:** O(N²) where N = (maxPeriod - minPeriod)
- **Implementation:** Uses `var` arrays with native PineScript historical operator ` `
- **Warmup:** Exponential compensation (§2 pattern) ensures valid output from bar 1
### Related Implementations
This refined approach aligns with:
- TradingView TASC 2025.02 implementation by blackcat1402
- Modern Ehlers cycle analysis techniques post-2016
- Evolved filtering methods from *Cycle Analytics for Traders*
The code is mathematically sound and production-ready, representing a refined version of the autocorrelation periodogram concept rather than a literal translation of the 2016 article.
## Common Settings and Parameters
| Parameter | Default | Function | When to Adjust |
|-----------|---------|----------|---------------|
| Min Period | 8 | Lower bound of candidate cycles | Increase to ignore microstructure noise; decrease for scalping. |
| Max Period | 48 | Upper bound of candidate cycles | Increase for swing analysis; decrease for intraday focus. |
| Autocorrelation Length | 3 | Averaging window for Pearson correlation | Set to 0 to match lag, or enlarge for smoother spectra. |
| Enhance Resolution | true | Cubic emphasis to highlight peaks | Disable when a flatter spectrum is desired for diagnostics. |
**Pro Tip:** Keep `(maxPeriod - minPeriod)` ≤ 64 to control $O(n^2)$ inner loops and maintain responsiveness on lower timeframes.
## Calculation and Mathematical Foundation
**Explanation:**
1. Apply roofing filter to `source` using coefficients $\alpha_1$, $a_1$, $b_1$, $c_1$, $c_2$, $c_3$.
2. For each lag $L$ compute Pearson correlation $r_L$ over window $M$ (default $L$).
3. For each period $p$, project onto Fourier basis:
$C_p=\sum_{n=2}^{N} r_n \cos\left(\frac{2\pi n}{p}\right)$ and $S_p=\sum_{n=2}^{N} r_n \sin\left(\frac{2\pi n}{p}\right)$.
4. Power $P_p=C_p^2+S_p^2$, smoothed then normalized via adaptive peak tracking.
5. Dominant cycle $D=\frac{\sum p\,\tilde P_p}{\sum \tilde P_p}$ over bins where $\tilde P_p≥0.5$, warmup-compensated.
**Technical formula:**
```
Step 1: hp_t = ((1-α₁)/2)(src_t - src_{t-1}) + α₁ hp_{t-1}
Step 2: filt_t = c₁(hp_t + hp_{t-1})/2 + c₂ filt_{t-1} + c₃ filt_{t-2}
Step 3: r_L = (M Σxy - Σx Σy) / √
Step 4: P_p = (Σ_{n=2}^{N} r_n cos(2πn/p))² + (Σ_{n=2}^{N} r_n sin(2πn/p))²
Step 5: D = Σ_{p∈Ω} p · ĤP_p / Σ_{p∈Ω} ĤP_p with warmup compensation
```
> 🔍 **Technical Note:** Warmup uses $c = 1 / (1 - (1 - \alpha)^{k})$ to scale early-cycle estimates, preventing low values during initial bars.
## Interpretation Details
- **Primary Dominant Cycle:**
- High $D$ (e.g., > 30) implies slow regime; adaptive MAs should lengthen.
- Low $D$ (e.g., < 15) signals rapid oscillations; shorten lookback windows.
- **Normalized Power:**
- Values > 0.8 indicate strong cycle confidence; consider cyclical strategies.
- Values < 0.3 warn of flat spectra; favor trend or volatility approaches.
- **Regime Shifts:**
- Rapid drop in $D$ alongside rising power often precedes volatility expansion.
- Divergence between $D$ and price swings may highlight upcoming breakouts.
## Limitations and Considerations
- **Spectral Leakage:** Limited lag range can smear peaks during abrupt volatility shifts.
- **O(n²) Segment:** Although constrained (≤ 60 loops), wide period spans increase computation.
- **Stationarity Assumption:** Autocorrelation presumes quasi-stationary cycles; regime changes reduce accuracy.
- **Latency in Noise:** Even with roofing, extremely noisy assets may require higher `avgLength`.
- **Downtrend Bias:** Negative trends may clip high-pass output; ensure preprocessing retains signal.
## References
* Ehlers, J. F. (2016). “Past Market Cycles.” *Technical Analysis of Stocks & Commodities*, 34(9), 52-55.
* Thinkorswim Learning Center. “Ehlers Autocorrelation Periodogram.”
* Fab MacCallini. “autocorrPeriodogram.R.” GitHub repository.
* QuantStrat TradeR Blog. “Autocorrelation Periodogram for Adaptive Lookbacks.”
* TradingView Script by blackcat1402. “Ehlers Autocorrelation Periodogram (Updated).”
COT IndexTHE HIDDEN INTELLIGENCE IN FUTURES MARKETS
What if you could see what the smartest players in the futures markets are doing before the crowd catches on? While retail traders chase momentum indicators and moving averages, obsess over Japanese candlestick patterns, and debate whether the RSI should be set to fourteen or twenty-one periods, institutional players leave footprints in the sand through their mandatory reporting to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. These footprints, published weekly in the Commitment of Traders reports, have been hiding in plain sight for decades, available to anyone with an internet connection, yet remarkably few traders understand how to interpret them correctly. The COT Index indicator transforms this raw institutional positioning data into actionable trading signals, bringing Wall Street intelligence to your trading screen without requiring expensive Bloomberg terminals or insider connections.
The uncomfortable truth is this: Most retail traders operate in a binary world. Long or short. Buy or sell. They apply technical analysis to individual positions, constrained by limited capital that forces them to concentrate risk in single directional bets. Meanwhile, institutional traders operate in an entirely different dimension. They manage portfolios dynamically weighted across multiple markets, adjusting exposure based on evolving market conditions, correlation shifts, and risk assessments that retail traders never see. A hedge fund might be simultaneously long gold, short oil, neutral on copper, and overweight agricultural commodities, with position sizes calibrated to volatility and portfolio Greeks. When they increase gold exposure from five percent to eight percent of portfolio allocation, this rebalancing decision reflects sophisticated analysis of opportunity cost, risk parity, and cross-market dynamics that no individual chart pattern can capture.
This portfolio reweighting activity, multiplied across hundreds of institutional participants, manifests in the aggregate positioning data published weekly by the CFTC. The Commitment of Traders report does not show individual trades or strategies. It shows the collective footprint of how actual commercial hedgers and large speculators have allocated their capital across different markets. When mining companies collectively increase forward gold sales to hedge thirty percent more production than last quarter, they are not reacting to a moving average crossover. They are making strategic allocation decisions based on production forecasts, cost structures, and price expectations derived from operational realities invisible to outside observers. This is portfolio management in action, revealed through positioning data rather than price charts.
If you want to understand how institutional capital actually flows, how sophisticated traders genuinely position themselves across market cycles, the COT report provides a rare window into that hidden world. But understand what you are getting into. This is not a tool for scalpers seeking confirmation of the next five-minute move. This is not an oscillator that flashes oversold at market bottoms with convenient precision. COT analysis operates on a timescale measured in weeks and months, revealing positioning shifts that precede major market turns but offer no precision timing. The data arrives three days stale, published only once per week, capturing strategic positioning rather than tactical entries.
If you need instant gratification, if you trade intraday moves, if you demand mechanical signals with ninety percent accuracy, close this document now. COT analysis rewards patience, position sizing discipline, and tolerance for being early. It punishes impatience, overleveraging, and the expectation that any single indicator can substitute for market understanding.
The premise is deceptively simple. Every Tuesday, large traders in futures markets must report their positions to the CFTC. By Friday afternoon, this data becomes public. Academic research spanning three decades has consistently shown that not all market participants are created equal. Some traders consistently profit while others consistently lose. Some anticipate major turning points while others chase trends into exhaustion. Bessembinder and Chan (1992) demonstrated in their seminal study that commercial hedgers, those with actual exposure to the underlying commodity or financial instrument, possess superior forecasting ability compared to speculators. Their research, published in the Journal of Finance, found statistically significant predictive power in commercial positioning, particularly at extreme levels. This finding challenged the efficient market hypothesis and opened the door to a new approach to market analysis based on positioning rather than price alone.
Think about what this means. Every week, the government publishes a report showing you exactly how the most informed market participants are positioned. Not their opinions. Not their predictions. Their actual money at risk. When agricultural producers collectively hold their largest short hedge in five years, they are not making idle speculation. They are locking in prices for crops they will harvest, informed by private knowledge of weather conditions, soil quality, inventory levels, and demand expectations invisible to outside observers. When energy companies aggressively hedge forward production at current prices, they reveal information about expected supply that no analyst report can capture. This is not technical analysis based on past prices. This is not fundamental analysis based on publicly available data. This is behavioral analysis based on how the smartest money is actually positioned, how institutions allocate capital across portfolios, and how those allocation decisions shift as market conditions evolve.
WHY SOME TRADERS KNOW MORE THAN OTHERS
Building on this foundation, Sanders, Boris and Manfredo (2004) conducted extensive research examining the behaviour patterns of different trader categories. Their work, which analyzed over a decade of COT data across multiple commodity markets, revealed a fascinating dynamic that challenges much of what retail traders are taught. Commercial hedgers consistently positioned themselves against market extremes, buying when speculators were most bearish and selling when speculators reached peak bullishness. The contrarian positioning of commercials was not random noise but rather reflected their superior information about supply and demand fundamentals. Meanwhile, large speculators, primarily hedge funds and commodity trading advisors, exhibited strong trend-following behaviour that often amplified market moves beyond fundamental values. Small traders, the retail participants, consistently entered positions late in trends, frequently near turning points, making them reliable contrary indicators.
Wang (2003) extended this research by demonstrating that the predictive power of commercial positioning varies significantly across different commodity sectors. His analysis of agricultural commodities showed particularly strong forecasting ability, with commercial net positions explaining up to fifteen percent of return variance in subsequent weeks. This finding suggests that the informational advantages of hedgers are most pronounced in markets where physical supply and demand fundamentals dominate, as opposed to purely financial markets where information asymmetries are smaller. When a corn farmer hedges six months of expected harvest, that decision incorporates private observations about rainfall patterns, crop health, pest pressure, and local storage capacity that no distant analyst can match. When an oil refinery hedges crude oil purchases and gasoline sales simultaneously, the spread relationships reveal expectations about refining margins that reflect operational realities invisible in public data.
The theoretical mechanism underlying these empirical patterns relates to information asymmetry and different participant motivations. Commercial hedgers engage in futures markets not for speculative profit but to manage business risks. An agricultural producer selling forward six months of expected harvest is not making a bet on price direction but rather locking in revenue to facilitate financial planning and ensure business viability. However, this hedging activity necessarily incorporates private information about expected supply, inventory levels, weather conditions, and demand trends that the hedger observes through their commercial operations (Irwin and Sanders, 2012). When aggregated across many participants, this private information manifests in collective positioning.
Consider a gold mining company deciding how much forward production to hedge. Management must estimate ore grades, recovery rates, production costs, equipment reliability, labor availability, and dozens of other operational variables that determine whether locking in prices at current levels makes business sense. If the industry collectively hedges more aggressively than usual, it suggests either exceptional production expectations or concern about sustaining current price levels or combination of both. Either way, this positioning reveals information unavailable to speculators analyzing price charts and economic data. The hedger sees the physical reality behind the financial abstraction.
Large speculators operate under entirely different incentives and constraints. Commodity Trading Advisors managing billions in assets typically employ systematic, trend-following strategies that respond to price momentum rather than fundamental supply and demand. When crude oil rallies from sixty dollars to seventy dollars per barrel, these systems generate buy signals. As the rally continues to eighty dollars, position sizes increase. The strategy works brilliantly during sustained trends but becomes a liability at reversals. By the time oil reaches ninety dollars, trend-following funds are maximally long, having accumulated positions progressively throughout the rally. At this point, they represent not smart money anticipating further gains but rather crowded money vulnerable to reversal. Sanders, Boris and Manfredo (2004) documented this pattern across multiple energy markets, showing that extreme speculator positioning typically marked late-stage trend exhaustion rather than early-stage trend development.
Small traders, the retail participants who fall below reporting thresholds, display the weakest forecasting ability. Wang (2003) found that small trader positioning exhibited negative correlation with subsequent returns, meaning their aggregate positioning served as a reliable contrary indicator. The explanation combines several factors. Retail traders often lack the capital reserves to weather normal market volatility, leading to premature exits from positions that would eventually prove profitable. They tend to receive information through slower channels, entering trends after mainstream media coverage when institutional participants are preparing to exit. Perhaps most importantly, they trade with emotion, buying into euphoria and selling into panic at precisely the wrong times.
At major turning points, the three groups often position opposite each other with commercials extremely bearish, large speculators extremely bullish, and small traders piling into longs at the last moment. These high-divergence environments frequently precede increased volatility and trend reversals. The insiders with business exposure quietly exit as the momentum traders hit maximum capacity and retail enthusiasm peaks. Within weeks, the reversal begins, and positions unwind in the opposite sequence.
FROM RAW DATA TO ACTIONABLE SIGNALS
The COT Index indicator operationalizes these academic findings into a practical trading tool accessible through TradingView. At its core, the indicator normalizes net positioning data onto a zero to one hundred scale, creating what we call the COT Index. This normalization is critical because absolute position sizes vary dramatically across different futures contracts and over time. A commercial trader holding fifty thousand contracts net long in crude oil might be extremely bullish by historical standards, or it might be quite neutral depending on the context of total market size and historical ranges. Raw position numbers mean nothing without context. The COT Index solves this problem by calculating where current positioning stands relative to its range over a specified lookback period, typically two hundred fifty-two weeks or approximately five years of weekly data.
The mathematical transformation follows the methodology originally popularized by legendary trader Larry Williams, though the underlying concept appears in statistical normalization techniques across many fields. For any given trader category, we calculate the highest and lowest net position values over the lookback period, establishing the historical range for that specific market and trader group. Current positioning is then expressed as a percentage of this range, where zero represents the most bearish positioning ever seen in the lookback window and one hundred represents the most bullish extreme. A reading of fifty indicates positioning exactly in the middle of the historical range, suggesting neither extreme optimism nor pessimism relative to recent history (Williams and Noseworthy, 2009).
This index-based approach allows for meaningful comparison across different markets and time periods, overcoming the scaling problems inherent in analyzing raw position data. A commercial index reading of eighty-five in gold carries the same interpretive meaning as an eighty-five reading in wheat or crude oil, even though the absolute position sizes differ by orders of magnitude. This standardization enables systematic analysis across entire futures portfolios rather than requiring market-specific expertise for each contract.
The lookback period selection involves a fundamental tradeoff between responsiveness and stability. Shorter lookback periods, perhaps one hundred twenty-six weeks or approximately two and a half years, make the index more sensitive to recent positioning changes. However, it also increases noise and produces more false signals. Longer lookback periods, perhaps five hundred weeks or approximately ten years, create smoother readings that filter short-term noise but become slower to recognize regime changes. The indicator settings allow users to adjust this parameter based on their trading timeframe, risk tolerance, and market characteristics.
UNDERSTANDING CFTC DATA STRUCTURES
The indicator supports both Legacy and Disaggregated COT report formats, reflecting the evolution of CFTC reporting standards over decades of market development. Legacy reports categorize market participants into three broad groups: commercial traders (hedgers with underlying business exposure), non-commercial traders (large speculators seeking profit without commercial interest), and non-reportable traders (small speculators below reporting thresholds). Each category brings distinct motivations and information advantages to the market (CFTC, 2020).
The Disaggregated reports, introduced in September 2009 for physical commodity markets, provide finer granularity by splitting participants into five categories (CFTC, 2009). Producer and merchant positions capture those actually producing, processing, or merchandising the physical commodity. Swap dealers represent financial intermediaries facilitating derivative transactions for clients. Managed money includes commodity trading advisors and hedge funds executing systematic or discretionary strategies. Other reportables encompasses diverse participants not fitting the main categories. Small traders remain as the fifth group, representing retail participation.
This enhanced categorization reveals nuances invisible in Legacy reports, particularly distinguishing between different types of institutional capital and their distinct behavioural patterns. The indicator automatically detects which report type is appropriate for each futures contract and adjusts the display accordingly.
Importantly, Disaggregated reports exist only for physical commodity futures. Agricultural commodities like corn, wheat, and soybeans have Disaggregated reports because clear producer, merchant, and swap dealer categories exist. Energy commodities like crude oil and natural gas similarly have well-defined commercial hedger categories. Metals including gold, silver, and copper also receive Disaggregated treatment (CFTC, 2009). However, financial futures such as equity index futures, Treasury bond futures, and currency futures remain available only in Legacy format. The CFTC has indicated no plans to extend Disaggregated reporting to financial futures due to different market structures and participant categories in these instruments (CFTC, 2020).
THE BEHAVIORAL FOUNDATION
Understanding which trader perspective to follow requires appreciation of their distinct trading styles, success rates, and psychological profiles. Commercial hedgers exhibit anticyclical behaviour rooted in their fundamental knowledge and business imperatives. When agricultural producers hedge forward sales during harvest season, they are not speculating on price direction but rather locking in revenue for crops they will harvest. Their business requires converting volatile commodity exposure into predictable cash flows to facilitate planning and ensure survival through difficult periods. Yet their aggregate positioning reveals valuable information because these hedging decisions incorporate private information about supply conditions, inventory levels, weather observations, and demand expectations that hedgers observe through their commercial operations (Bessembinder and Chan, 1992).
Consider a practical example from energy markets. Major oil companies continuously hedge portions of forward production based on price levels, operational costs, and financial planning needs. When crude oil trades at ninety dollars per barrel, they might aggressively hedge the next twelve months of production, locking in prices that provide comfortable profit margins above their extraction costs. This hedging appears as short positioning in COT reports. If oil rallies further to one hundred dollars, they hedge even more aggressively, viewing these prices as exceptional opportunities to secure revenue. Their short positioning grows increasingly extreme. To an outside observer watching only price charts, the rally suggests bullishness. But the commercial positioning reveals that the actual producers of oil find these prices attractive enough to lock in years of sales, suggesting skepticism about sustaining even higher levels. When the eventual reversal occurs and oil declines back to eighty dollars, the commercials who hedged at ninety and one hundred dollars profit while speculators who chased the rally suffer losses.
Large speculators or managed money traders operate under entirely different incentives and constraints. Their systematic, momentum-driven strategies mean they amplify existing trends rather than anticipate reversals. Trend-following systems, the most common approach among large speculators, by definition require confirmation of trend through price momentum before entering positions (Sanders, Boris and Manfredo, 2004). When crude oil rallies from sixty dollars to eighty dollars per barrel over several months, trend-following algorithms generate buy signals based on moving average crossovers, breakouts, and other momentum indicators. As the rally continues, position sizes increase according to the systematic rules.
However, this approach becomes a liability at turning points. By the time oil reaches ninety dollars after a sustained rally, trend-following funds are maximally long, having accumulated positions progressively throughout the move. At this point, their positioning does not predict continued strength. Rather, it often marks late-stage trend exhaustion. The psychological and mechanical explanation is straightforward. Trend followers by definition chase price momentum, entering positions after trends establish rather than anticipating them. Eventually, they become fully invested just as the trend nears completion, leaving no incremental buying power to sustain the rally. When the first signs of reversal appear, systematic stops trigger, creating a cascade of selling that accelerates the downturn.
Small traders consistently display the weakest track record across academic studies. Wang (2003) found that small trader positioning exhibited negative correlation with subsequent returns in his analysis across multiple commodity markets. This result means that whatever small traders collectively do, the opposite typically proves profitable. The explanation for small trader underperformance combines several factors documented in behavioral finance literature. Retail traders often lack the capital reserves to weather normal market volatility, leading to premature exits from positions that would eventually prove profitable. They tend to receive information through slower channels, learning about commodity trends through mainstream media coverage that arrives after institutional participants have already positioned. Perhaps most importantly, retail traders are more susceptible to emotional decision-making, buying into euphoria and selling into panic at precisely the wrong times (Tharp, 2008).
SETTINGS, THRESHOLDS, AND SIGNAL GENERATION
The practical implementation of the COT Index requires understanding several key features and settings that users can adjust to match their trading style, timeframe, and risk tolerance. The lookback period determines the time window for calculating historical ranges. The default setting of two hundred fifty-two bars represents approximately one year on daily charts or five years on weekly charts, balancing responsiveness with stability. Conservative traders seeking only the most extreme, highest-probability signals might extend the lookback to five hundred bars or more. Aggressive traders seeking earlier entry and willing to accept more false positives might reduce it to one hundred twenty-six bars or even less for shorter-term applications.
The bullish and bearish thresholds define signal generation levels. Default settings of eighty and twenty respectively reflect academic research suggesting meaningful information content at these extremes. Readings above eighty indicate positioning in the top quintile of the historical range, representing genuine extremes rather than temporary fluctuations. Conversely, readings below twenty occupy the bottom quintile, indicating unusually bearish positioning (Briese, 2008).
However, traders must recognize that appropriate thresholds vary by market, trader category, and personal risk tolerance. Some futures markets exhibit wider positioning swings than others due to seasonal patterns, volatility characteristics, or participant behavior. Conservative traders seeking high-probability setups with fewer signals might raise thresholds to eighty-five and fifteen. Aggressive traders willing to accept more false positives for earlier entry could lower them to seventy-five and twenty-five.
The key is maintaining meaningful differentiation between bullish, neutral, and bearish zones. The default settings of eighty and twenty create a clear three-zone structure. Readings from zero to twenty represent bearish territory where the selected trader group holds unusually bearish positions. Readings from twenty to eighty represent neutral territory where positioning falls within normal historical ranges. Readings from eighty to one hundred represent bullish territory where the selected trader group holds unusually bullish positions.
The trading perspective selection determines which participant group the indicator follows, fundamentally shaping interpretation and signal meaning. For counter-trend traders seeking reversal opportunities, monitoring commercial positioning makes intuitive sense based on the academic research discussed earlier. When commercials reach extreme bearish readings below twenty, indicating unprecedented short positioning relative to recent history, they are effectively betting against the crowd. Given their informational advantages demonstrated by Bessembinder and Chan (1992), this contrarian stance often precedes major bottoms.
Trend followers might instead monitor large speculator positioning, but with inverted logic compared to commercials. When managed money reaches extreme bullish readings above eighty, the trend may be exhausting rather than accelerating. This seeming paradox reflects their late-cycle participation documented by Sanders, Boris and Manfredo (2004). Sophisticated traders thus use speculator extremes as fade signals, entering positions opposite to speculator consensus.
Small trader monitoring serves primarily as a contrary indicator for all trading styles. Extreme small trader bullishness above seventy-five or eighty typically warns of retail FOMO at market tops. Extreme small trader bearishness below twenty or twenty-five often marks capitulation bottoms where the last weak hands have sold.
VISUALIZATION AND USER INTERFACE
The visual design incorporates multiple elements working together to facilitate decision-making and maintain situational awareness during active trading. The primary COT Index line plots in bold with adjustable line width, defaulting to two pixels for clear visibility against busy price charts. An optional glow effect, controlled by a simple toggle, adds additional visual prominence through multiple plot layers with progressively increasing transparency and width.
A twenty-one period exponential moving average overlays the index line, providing trend context for positioning changes. When the index crosses above its moving average, it signals accelerating bullish sentiment among the selected trader group regardless of whether absolute positioning is extreme. Conversely, when the index crosses below its moving average, it signals deteriorating sentiment and potentially the beginning of a reversal in positioning trends.
The EMA provides a dynamic reference line for assessing positioning momentum. When the index trades far above its EMA, positioning is not only extreme in absolute terms but also building with momentum. When the index trades far below its EMA, positioning is contracting or reversing, which may indicate weakening conviction even if absolute levels remain elevated.
The data table positioned at the top right of the chart displays eleven metrics for each trader category, transforming the indicator from a simple index calculation into an analytical dashboard providing multidimensional market intelligence. Beyond the COT Index itself, users can monitor positioning extremity, which measures how unusual current levels are compared to historical norms using statistical techniques. The extremity metric clarifies whether a reading represents the ninety-fifth or ninety-ninth percentile, with values above two standard deviations indicating genuinely exceptional positioning.
Market power quantifies each group's influence on total open interest. This metric expresses each trader category's net position as a percentage of total market open interest. A commercial entity holding forty percent of total open interest commands significantly more influence than one holding five percent, making their positioning signals more meaningful.
Momentum and rate of change metrics reveal whether positions are building or contracting, providing early warning of potential regime shifts. Position velocity measures the rate of change in positioning changes, effectively a second derivative providing even earlier insight into inflection points.
Sentiment divergence highlights disagreements between commercial and speculative positioning. This metric calculates the absolute difference between normalized commercial and large speculator index values. Wang (2003) found that these high-divergence environments frequently preceded increased volatility and reversals.
The table also displays concentration metrics when available, showing how positioning is distributed among the largest handful of traders in each category. High concentration indicates a few dominant players controlling most of the positioning, while low concentration suggests broad-based participation across many traders.
THE ALERT SYSTEM AND MONITORING
The alert system, comprising five distinct alert conditions, enables systematic monitoring of dozens of futures markets without constant screen watching. The bullish and bearish COT signal alerts trigger when the index crosses user-defined thresholds, indicating the selected trader group has reached extreme positioning worthy of attention. These alerts fire in real-time as new weekly COT data publishes, typically Friday afternoon following the Tuesday measurement date.
Extreme positioning alerts fire at ninety and ten index levels, representing the top and bottom ten percent of the historical range, warning of particularly stretched readings that historically precede reversals with high probability. When commercials reach a COT Index reading below ten, they are expressing their most bearish stance in the entire lookback period.
The data staleness alert notifies users when COT reports have not updated for more than ten days, preventing reliance on outdated information for trading decisions. Government shutdowns or federal holidays can interrupt the normal Friday publication schedule. Using stale signals while believing them current creates dangerous false confidence.
The indicator's watermark information display positioned in the bottom right corner provides essential context at a glance. This persistent display shows the symbol and timeframe, the COT report date timestamp, days since last update, and the current signal state. A trader analyzing a potential short entry in crude oil can glance at the watermark to instantly confirm positioning context without interrupting analysis flow.
LIMITATIONS AND REALISTIC EXPECTATIONS
Practical application requires understanding both the indicator's considerable strengths and inherent limitations. COT data inherently lags price action by three days, as Tuesday positions are not published until Friday afternoon. This delay means the indicator cannot catch rapid intraday reversals or respond to surprise news events. Traders using the COT Index for timing entries must accept this latency and focus on swing trading and position trading timeframes where three-day lags matter less than in day trading or scalping.
The weekly publication schedule similarly makes the indicator unsuitable for short-term trading strategies requiring immediate feedback. The COT Index works best for traders operating on weekly or longer timeframes, where positioning shifts measured in weeks and months align with trading horizon.
Extreme COT readings can persist far longer than typical technical indicators suggest, testing the patience and capital reserves of traders attempting to fade them. When crude oil enters a sustained bull market driven by genuine supply disruptions, commercial hedgers may maintain bearish positioning for many months as prices grind higher. A commercial COT Index reading of fifteen indicating extreme bearishness might persist for three months while prices continue rallying before finally reversing. Traders without sufficient capital and risk tolerance to weather such drawdowns will exit prematurely, precisely when the signal is about to work (Irwin and Sanders, 2012).
Position sizing discipline becomes paramount when implementing COT-based strategies. Rather than risking large percentages of capital on individual signals, successful COT traders typically allocate modest position sizes across multiple signals, allowing some to take time to mature while others work more quickly.
The indicator also cannot overcome fundamental regime changes that alter the structural drivers of markets. If gold enters a true secular bull market driven by monetary debasement, commercial hedgers may remain persistently bearish as mining companies sell forward years of production at what they perceive as favorable prices. Their positioning indicates valuation concerns from a production cost perspective, but cannot stop prices from rising if investment demand overwhelms physical supply-demand balance.
Similarly, structural changes in market participation can alter the meaning of positioning extremes. The growth of commodity index investing in the two thousands brought massive passive long-only capital into futures markets, fundamentally changing typical positioning ranges. Traders relying on COT signals without recognizing this regime change would have generated numerous false bearish signals during the commodity supercycle from 2003 to 2008.
The research foundation supporting COT analysis derives primarily from commodity markets where the commercial hedger information advantage is most pronounced. Studies specifically examining financial futures like equity indices and bonds show weaker but still present effects. Traders should calibrate expectations accordingly, recognizing that COT analysis likely works better for crude oil, natural gas, corn, and wheat than for the S&P 500, Treasury bonds, or currency futures.
Another important limitation involves the reporting threshold structure. Not all market participants appear in COT data, only those holding positions above specified minimums. In markets dominated by a few large players, concentration metrics become critical for proper interpretation. A single large trader accounting for thirty percent of commercial positioning might skew the entire category if their individual circumstances are idiosyncratic rather than representative.
GOLD FUTURES DURING A HYPOTHETICAL MARKET CYCLE
Consider a practical example using gold futures during a hypothetical but realistic market scenario that illustrates how the COT Index indicator guides trading decisions through a complete market cycle. Suppose gold has rallied from fifteen hundred to nineteen hundred dollars per ounce over six months, driven by inflation concerns following aggressive monetary expansion, geopolitical uncertainty, and sustained buying by Asian central banks for reserve diversification.
Large speculators, operating primarily trend-following strategies, have accumulated increasingly bullish positions throughout this rally. Their COT Index has climbed progressively from forty-five to eighty-five. The table display shows that large speculators now hold net long positions representing thirty-two percent of total open interest, their highest in four years. Momentum indicators show positive readings, indicating positions are still building though at a decelerating rate. Position velocity has turned negative, suggesting the pace of position building is slowing.
Meanwhile, commercial hedgers have responded to the rally by aggressively selling forward production and inventory. Their COT Index has moved inversely to price, declining from fifty-five to twenty. This bearish commercial positioning represents mining companies locking in forward sales at prices they view as attractive relative to production costs. The table shows commercials now hold net short positions representing twenty-nine percent of total open interest, their most bearish stance in five years. Concentration metrics indicate this positioning is broadly distributed across many commercial entities, suggesting the bearish stance reflects collective industry view rather than idiosyncratic positioning by a single firm.
Small traders, attracted by mainstream financial media coverage of gold's impressive rally, have recently piled into long positions. Their COT Index has jumped from forty-five to seventy-eight as retail investors chase the trend. Television financial networks feature frequent segments on gold with bullish guests. Internet forums and social media show surging retail interest. This retail enthusiasm historically marks late-stage trend development rather than early opportunity.
The COT Index indicator, configured to monitor commercial positioning from a contrarian perspective, displays a clear bearish signal given the extreme commercial short positioning. The table displays multiple confirming metrics: positioning extremity shows commercials at the ninety-sixth percentile of bearishness, market power indicates they control twenty-nine percent of open interest, and sentiment divergence registers sixty-five, indicating massive disagreement between commercial hedgers and large speculators. This divergence, the highest in three years, places the market in the historically high-risk category for reversals.
The interpretation requires nuance and consideration of context beyond just COT data. Commercials are not necessarily predicting an imminent crash. Rather, they are hedging business operations at what they collectively view as favorable price levels. However, the data reveals they have sold unusually large quantities of forward production, suggesting either exceptional production expectations for the year ahead or concern about sustaining current price levels or combination of both. Combined with extreme speculator positioning indicating a crowded long trade, and small trader enthusiasm confirming retail FOMO, the confluence suggests elevated reversal risk even if the precise timing remains uncertain.
A prudent trader analyzing this situation might take several actions based on COT Index signals. Existing long positions could be tightened with closer stop losses. Profit-taking on a portion of long exposure could lock in gains while maintaining some participation. Some traders might initiate modest short positions as portfolio hedges, sizing them appropriately for the inherent uncertainty in timing reversals. Others might simply move to the sidelines, avoiding new long entries until positioning normalizes.
The key lesson from case study analysis is that COT signals provide probabilistic edges rather than deterministic predictions. They work over many observations by identifying higher-probability configurations, not by generating perfect calls on individual trades. A fifty-five percent win rate with proper risk management produces substantial profits over time, yet still means forty-five percent of signals will be premature or wrong. Traders must embrace this probabilistic reality rather than seeking the impossible goal of perfect accuracy.
INTEGRATION WITH TRADING SYSTEMS
Integration with existing trading systems represents a natural and powerful use case for COT analysis, adding a positioning dimension to price-based technical approaches or fundamental analytical frameworks. Few traders rely exclusively on a single indicator or methodology. Rather, they build systems that synthesize multiple information sources, with each component addressing different aspects of market behavior.
Trend followers might use COT extremes as regime filters, modifying position sizing or avoiding new trend entries when positioning reaches levels historically associated with reversals. Consider a classic trend-following system based on moving average crossovers and momentum breakouts. Integration of COT analysis adds nuance. When large speculator positioning exceeds ninety or commercial positioning falls below ten, the regime filter recognizes elevated reversal risk. The system might reduce position sizing by fifty percent for new signals during these high-risk periods (Kaufman, 2013).
Mean reversion traders might require COT signal confluence before fading extended moves. When crude oil becomes technically overbought and large speculators show extreme long positioning above eighty-five, both signals confirm. If only technical indicators show extremes while positioning remains neutral, the potential short signal is rejected, avoiding fades of trends with underlying institutional support (Kaufman, 2013).
Discretionary traders can monitor the indicator as a continuous awareness tool, informing bias and position sizing without dictating mechanical entries and exits. A discretionary trader might notice commercial positioning shifting from neutral to progressively more bullish over several months. This trend informs growing positive bias even without triggering mechanical signals.
Multi-timeframe analysis represents another powerful integration approach. A trader might use daily charts for trade execution and timing while monitoring weekly COT positioning for strategic context. When both timeframes align, highest-probability opportunities emerge.
Portfolio construction for futures traders can incorporate COT signals as an additional selection criterion. Markets showing strong technical setups AND favorable COT positioning receive highest allocations. Markets with strong technicals but neutral or unfavorable positioning receive reduced allocations.
ADVANCED METRICS AND INTERPRETATION
The metrics table transforms simple positioning data into multidimensional market intelligence. Position extremity, calculated as the absolute deviation from the historical mean normalized by standard deviation, helps identify truly unusual readings versus routine fluctuations. A reading above two standard deviations indicates ninety-fifth percentile or higher extremity. Above three standard deviations indicates ninety-ninth percentile or higher, genuinely rare positioning that historically precedes major events with high probability.
Market power, expressed as a percentage of total open interest, reveals whose positioning matters most from a mechanical market impact perspective. Consider two scenarios in gold futures. In scenario one, commercials show a COT Index reading of fifteen while their market power metric shows they hold net shorts representing thirty-five percent of open interest. This is a high-confidence bearish signal. In scenario two, commercials also show a reading of fifteen, but market power shows only eight percent. While positioning is extreme relative to this category's normal range, their limited market share means less mechanical influence on price.
The rate of change and momentum metrics highlight whether positions are accelerating or decelerating, often providing earlier warnings than absolute levels alone. A COT Index reading of seventy-five with rapidly building momentum suggests continued movement toward extremes. Conversely, a reading of eighty-five with decelerating or negative momentum indicates the positioning trend is exhausting.
Position velocity measures the rate of change in positioning changes, effectively a second derivative. When velocity shifts from positive to negative, it indicates that while positioning may still be growing, the pace of growth is slowing. This deceleration often precedes actual reversal in positioning direction by several weeks.
Sentiment divergence calculates the absolute difference between normalized commercial and large speculator index values. When commercials show extreme bearish positioning at twenty while large speculators show extreme bullish positioning at eighty, the divergence reaches sixty, representing near-maximum disagreement. Wang (2003) found that these high-divergence environments frequently preceded increased volatility and reversals. The mechanism is intuitive. Extreme divergence indicates the informed hedgers and momentum-following speculators have positioned opposite each other with conviction. One group will prove correct and profit while the other proves incorrect and suffers losses. The resolution of this disagreement through price movement often involves volatility.
The table also displays concentration metrics when available. High concentration indicates a few dominant players controlling most of the positioning within a category, while low concentration suggests broad-based participation. Broad-based positioning more reliably reflects collective market intelligence and industry consensus. If mining companies globally all independently decide to hedge aggressively at similar price levels, it suggests genuine industry-wide view about price valuations rather than circumstances specific to one firm.
DATA QUALITY AND RELIABILITY
The CFTC has maintained COT reporting in various forms since the nineteen twenties, providing nearly a century of positioning data across multiple market cycles. However, data quality and reporting standards have evolved substantially over this long period. Modern electronic reporting implemented in the late nineteen nineties and early two thousands significantly improved accuracy and timeliness compared to earlier paper-based systems.
Traders should understand that COT reports capture positions as of Tuesday's close each week. Markets remain open three additional days before publication on Friday afternoon, meaning the reported data is three days stale when received. During periods of rapid market movement or major news events, this lag can be significant. The indicator addresses this limitation by including timestamp information and staleness warnings.
The three-day lag creates particular challenges during extreme volatility episodes. Flash crashes, surprise central bank interventions, geopolitical shocks, and other high-impact events can completely transform market positioning within hours. Traders must exercise judgment about whether reported positioning remains relevant given intervening events.
Reporting thresholds also mean that not all market participants appear in disaggregated COT data. Traders holding positions below specified minimums aggregate into the non-reportable or small trader category. This aggregation affects different markets differently. In highly liquid contracts like crude oil with thousands of participants, reportable traders might represent seventy to eighty percent of open interest. In thinly traded contracts with only dozens of active participants, a few large reportable positions might represent ninety-five percent of open interest.
Another data quality consideration involves trader classification into categories. The CFTC assigns traders to commercial or non-commercial categories based on reported business purpose and activities. However, this process is not perfect. Some entities engage in both commercial and speculative activities, creating ambiguity about proper classification. The transition to Disaggregated reports attempted to address some of these ambiguities by creating more granular categories.
COMPARISON WITH ALTERNATIVE APPROACHES
Several alternative approaches to COT analysis exist in the trading community beyond the normalization methodology employed by this indicator. Some analysts focus on absolute position changes week-over-week rather than index-based normalization. This approach calculates the change in net positioning from one week to the next. The emphasis falls on momentum in positioning changes rather than absolute levels relative to history. This method potentially identifies regime shifts earlier but sacrifices cross-market comparability (Briese, 2008).
Other practitioners employ more complex statistical transformations including percentile rankings, z-score standardization, and machine learning classification algorithms. Ruan and Zhang (2018) demonstrated that machine learning models applied to COT data could achieve modest improvements in forecasting accuracy compared to simple threshold-based approaches. However, these gains came at the cost of interpretability and implementation complexity.
The COT Index indicator intentionally employs a relatively straightforward normalization methodology for several important reasons. First, transparency enhances user understanding and trust. Traders can verify calculations manually and develop intuitive feel for what different readings mean. Second, academic research suggests that most of the predictive power in COT data comes from extreme positioning levels rather than subtle patterns requiring complex statistical methods to detect. Third, robust methods that work consistently across many markets and time periods tend to be simpler rather than more complex, reducing the risk of overfitting to historical data. Fourth, the complexity costs of implementation matter for retail traders without programming teams or computational infrastructure.
PSYCHOLOGICAL ASPECTS OF COT TRADING
Trading based on COT data requires psychological fortitude that differs from momentum-based approaches. Contrarian positioning signals inherently mean betting against prevailing market sentiment and recent price action. When commercials reach extreme bearish positioning, prices have typically been rising, sometimes for extended periods. The price chart looks bullish, momentum indicators confirm strength, moving averages align positively. The COT signal says bet against all of this. This psychological difficulty explains why COT analysis remains underutilized relative to trend-following methods.
Human psychology strongly predisposes us toward extrapolation and recency bias. When prices rally for months, our pattern-matching brains naturally expect continued rally. The recent price action dominates our perception, overwhelming rational analysis about positioning extremes and historical probabilities. The COT signal asking us to sell requires overriding these powerful psychological impulses.
The indicator design attempts to support the required psychological discipline through several features. Clear threshold markers and signal states reduce ambiguity about when signals trigger. When the commercial index crosses below twenty, the signal is explicit and unambiguous. The background shifts to red, the signal label displays bearish, and alerts fire. This explicitness helps traders act on signals rather than waiting for additional confirmation that may never arrive.
The metrics table provides analytical justification for contrarian positions, helping traders maintain conviction during inevitable periods of adverse price movement. When a trader enters short positions based on extreme commercial bearish positioning but prices continue rallying for several weeks, doubt naturally emerges. The table display provides reassurance. Commercial positioning remains extremely bearish. Divergence remains high. The positioning thesis remains intact even though price action has not yet confirmed.
Alert functionality ensures traders do not miss signals due to inattention while also not requiring constant monitoring that can lead to emotional decision-making. Setting alerts for COT extremes enables a healthier relationship with markets. When meaningful signals occur, alerts notify them. They can then calmly assess the situation and execute planned responses.
However, no indicator design can completely overcome the psychological difficulty of contrarian trading. Some traders simply cannot maintain short positions while prices rally. For these traders, COT analysis might be better employed as an exit signal for long positions rather than an entry signal for shorts.
Ultimately, successful COT trading requires developing comfort with probabilistic thinking rather than certainty-seeking. The signals work over many observations by identifying higher-probability configurations, not by generating perfect calls on individual trades. A fifty-five or sixty percent win rate with proper risk management produces substantial profits over years, yet still means forty to forty-five percent of signals will be premature or wrong. COT analysis provides genuine edge, but edge means probability advantage, not elimination of losing trades.
EDUCATIONAL RESOURCES AND CONTINUOUS LEARNING
The indicator provides extensive built-in educational resources through its documentation, detailed tooltips, and transparent calculations. However, mastering COT analysis requires study beyond any single tool or resource. Several excellent resources provide valuable extensions of the concepts covered in this guide.
Books and practitioner-focused monographs offer accessible entry points. Stephen Briese published The Commitments of Traders Bible in two thousand eight, offering detailed breakdowns of how different markets and trader categories behave (Briese, 2008). Briese's work stands out for its empirical focus and market-specific insights. Jack Schwager includes discussion of COT analysis within the broader context of market behavior in his book Market Sense and Nonsense (Schwager, 2012). Perry Kaufman's Trading Systems and Methods represents perhaps the most rigorous practitioner-focused text on systematic trading approaches including COT analysis (Kaufman, 2013).
Academic journal articles provide the rigorous statistical foundation underlying COT analysis. The Journal of Futures Markets regularly publishes research on positioning data and its predictive properties. Bessembinder and Chan's earlier work on systematic risk, hedging pressure, and risk premiums in futures markets provides theoretical foundation (Bessembinder, 1992). Chang's examination of speculator returns provides historical context (Chang, 1985). Irwin and Sanders provide essential skeptical perspective in their two thousand twelve article (Irwin and Sanders, 2012). Wang's two thousand three article provides one of the most empirical analyses of COT data across multiple commodity markets (Wang, 2003).
Online resources extend beyond academic and book-length treatments. The CFTC website provides free access to current and historical COT reports in multiple formats. The explanatory materials section offers detailed documentation of report construction, category definitions, and historical methodology changes. Traders serious about COT analysis should read these official CFTC documents to understand exactly what they are analyzing.
Commercial COT data services such as Barchart provide enhanced visualization and analysis tools beyond raw CFTC data. TradingView's educational materials, published scripts library, and user community provide additional resources for exploring different approaches to COT analysis.
The key to mastering COT analysis lies not in finding a single definitive source but rather in building understanding through multiple perspectives and information sources. Academic research provides rigorous empirical foundation. Practitioner-focused books offer practical implementation insights. Direct engagement with data through systematic backtesting develops intuition about how positioning dynamics manifest across different market conditions.
SYNTHESIZING KNOWLEDGE INTO PRACTICE
The COT Index indicator represents the synthesis of academic research, trading experience, and software engineering into a practical tool accessible to retail traders equipped with nothing more than a TradingView account and willingness to learn. What once required expensive data subscriptions, custom programming capabilities, statistical software, and institutional resources now appears as a straightforward indicator requiring only basic parameter selection and modest study to understand. This democratization of institutional-grade analysis tools represents a broader trend in financial markets over recent decades.
Yet technology and data access alone provide no edge without understanding and discipline. Markets remain relentlessly efficient at eliminating edges that become too widely known and mechanically exploited. The COT Index indicator succeeds only when users invest time learning the underlying concepts, understand the limitations and probability distributions involved, and integrate signals thoughtfully into trading plans rather than applying them mechanically.
The academic research demonstrates conclusively that institutional positioning contains genuine information about future price movements, particularly at extremes where commercial hedgers are maximally bearish or bullish relative to historical norms. This informational content is neither perfect nor deterministic but rather probabilistic, providing edge over many observations through identification of higher-probability configurations. Bessembinder and Chan's finding that commercial positioning explained modest but significant variance in future returns illustrates this probabilistic nature perfectly (Bessembinder and Chan, 1992). The effect is real and statistically significant, yet it explains perhaps ten to fifteen percent of return variance rather than most variance. Much of price movement remains unpredictable even with positioning intelligence.
The practical implication is that COT analysis works best as one component of a trading system rather than a standalone oracle. It provides the positioning dimension, revealing where the smart money has positioned and where the crowd has followed, but price action analysis provides the timing dimension. Fundamental analysis provides the catalyst dimension. Risk management provides the survival dimension. These components work together synergistically.
The indicator's design philosophy prioritizes transparency and education over black-box complexity, empowering traders to understand exactly what they are analyzing and why. Every calculation is documented and user-adjustable. The threshold markers, background coloring, tables, and clear signal states provide multiple reinforcing channels for conveying the same information.
This educational approach reflects a conviction that sustainable trading success comes from genuine understanding rather than mechanical system-following. Traders who understand why commercial positioning matters, how different trader categories behave, what positioning extremes signify, and where signals fit within probability distributions can adapt when market conditions change. Traders mechanically following black-box signals without comprehension abandon systems after normal losing streaks.
The research foundation supporting COT analysis comes primarily from commodity markets where commercial hedger informational advantages are most pronounced. Agricultural producers hedging crops know more about supply conditions than distant speculators. Energy companies hedging production know more about operating costs than financial traders. Metals miners hedging output know more about ore grades than index funds. Financial futures markets show weaker but still present effects.
The journey from reading this documentation to profitable trading based on COT analysis involves several stages that cannot be rushed. Initial reading and basic understanding represents the first stage. Historical study represents the second stage, reviewing past market cycles to observe how positioning extremes preceded major turning points. Paper trading or small-size real trading represents the third stage to experience the psychological challenges. Refinement based on results and personal psychology represents the fourth stage.
Markets will continue evolving. New participant categories will emerge. Regulatory structures will change. Technology will advance. Yet the fundamental dynamics driving COT analysis, that different market participants have different information, different motivations, and different forecasting abilities that manifest in their positioning, will persist as long as futures markets exist. While specific thresholds or optimal parameters may shift over time, the core logic remains sound and adaptable.
The trader equipped with this indicator, understanding of the theory and evidence behind COT analysis, realistic expectations about probability rather than certainty, discipline to maintain positions through adverse volatility, and patience to allow signals time to develop possesses genuine edge in markets. The edge is not enormous, markets cannot allow large persistent inefficiencies without arbitraging them away, but it is real, measurable, and exploitable by those willing to invest in learning and disciplined application.
REFERENCES
Bessembinder, H. (1992) Systematic risk, hedging pressure, and risk premiums in futures markets, Review of Financial Studies, 5(4), pp. 637-667.
Bessembinder, H. and Chan, K. (1992) The profitability of technical trading rules in the Asian stock markets, Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, 3(2-3), pp. 257-284.
Briese, S. (2008) The Commitments of Traders Bible: How to Profit from Insider Market Intelligence. Hoboken: John Wiley & Sons.
Chang, E.C. (1985) Returns to speculators and the theory of normal backwardation, Journal of Finance, 40(1), pp. 193-208.
Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) (2009) Explanatory Notes: Disaggregated Commitments of Traders Report. Available at: www.cftc.gov (Accessed: 15 January 2025).
Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) (2020) Commitments of Traders: About the Report. Available at: www.cftc.gov (Accessed: 15 January 2025).
Irwin, S.H. and Sanders, D.R. (2012) Testing the Masters Hypothesis in commodity futures markets, Energy Economics, 34(1), pp. 256-269.
Kaufman, P.J. (2013) Trading Systems and Methods. 5th edn. Hoboken: John Wiley & Sons.
Ruan, Y. and Zhang, Y. (2018) Forecasting commodity futures prices using machine learning: Evidence from the Chinese commodity futures market, Applied Economics Letters, 25(12), pp. 845-849.
Sanders, D.R., Boris, K. and Manfredo, M. (2004) Hedgers, funds, and small speculators in the energy futures markets: an analysis of the CFTC's Commitments of Traders reports, Energy Economics, 26(3), pp. 425-445.
Schwager, J.D. (2012) Market Sense and Nonsense: How the Markets Really Work and How They Don't. Hoboken: John Wiley & Sons.
Tharp, V.K. (2008) Super Trader: Make Consistent Profits in Good and Bad Markets. New York: McGraw-Hill.
Wang, C. (2003) The behavior and performance of major types of futures traders, Journal of Futures Markets, 23(1), pp. 1-31.
Williams, L.R. and Noseworthy, M. (2009) The Right Stock at the Right Time: Prospering in the Coming Good Years. Hoboken: John Wiley & Sons.
FURTHER READING
For traders seeking to deepen their understanding of COT analysis and futures market positioning beyond this documentation, the following resources provide valuable extensions:
Academic Journal Articles:
Fishe, R.P.H. and Smith, A. (2012) Do speculators drive commodity prices away from supply and demand fundamentals?, Journal of Commodity Markets, 1(1), pp. 1-16.
Haigh, M.S., Hranaiova, J. and Overdahl, J.A. (2007) Hedge funds, volatility, and liquidity provision in energy futures markets, Journal of Alternative Investments, 9(4), pp. 10-38.
Kocagil, A.E. (1997) Does futures speculation stabilize spot prices? Evidence from metals markets, Applied Financial Economics, 7(1), pp. 115-125.
Sanders, D.R. and Irwin, S.H. (2011) The impact of index funds in commodity futures markets: A systems approach, Journal of Alternative Investments, 14(1), pp. 40-49.
Books and Practitioner Resources:
Murphy, J.J. (1999) Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets: A Guide to Trading Methods and Applications. New York: New York Institute of Finance.
Pring, M.J. (2002) Technical Analysis Explained: The Investor's Guide to Spotting Investment Trends and Turning Points. 4th edn. New York: McGraw-Hill.
Federal Reserve and Research Institution Publications:
Federal Reserve Banks regularly publish working papers examining commodity markets, futures positioning, and price discovery mechanisms. The Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco and Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City maintain active research programs in this area.
Online Resources:
The CFTC website provides free access to current and historical COT reports, explanatory materials, and regulatory documentation.
Barchart offers enhanced COT data visualization and screening tools.
TradingView's community library contains numerous published scripts and educational materials exploring different approaches to positioning analysis.
Trend Candles Full ColorThe coloring over the candle sticks isn't showing up on the picture for some reason but when you click on the indicator the color coding will appear on the chart.
Trend Candles Full Color Indicator Explanation The "Trend Candles Full Color" indicator, designed for TradingView, visually enhances candlestick charts by coloring candles based on their position relative to a simple moving average (SMA). Here's how it works and how it can benefit traders: How It Works Input : Adjust the SMA period (default is 20) to define the trend length.
Logic : The indicator compares the closing price of each candle to the SMA: Green Candle : Close is above the SMA (indicating an uptrend).
Red Candle : Close is below the SMA (indicating a downtrend).
Gray Candle : Close equals the SMA (neutral/no clear trend).
Output : Candles (body, wick, and border) are colored green, red, or gray based on the trend, overlaid directly on your price chart.
Benefits and Use Cases Trend-Following Strategies Benefit: Clearly identifies bullish (green) or bearish (red) trends, helping traders ride momentum.
Example: A swing trader using a 20-period SMA can enter long positions when candles turn green (price above SMA) and exit or short when candles turn red, confirming trend reversals.
Reversal Trading Benefit: Gray candles signal indecision near the SMA, often a precursor to reversals.
Example: A day trader might watch for gray candles after a prolonged uptrend (green candles) to anticipate a potential bearish reversal, combining with other indicators like RSI for confirmation.
Scalping Benefit: Quick visual cues for short-term trend changes on lower timeframes.
Example: A scalper on a 5-minute chart can use green candles to confirm quick bullish moves and red candles to avoid counter-trend trades, enhancing decision speed.
Position Sizing or Risk Management Benefit: Color changes highlight trend strength, aiding in adjusting trade size or stops.
Example: A trader might increase position size during strong green candle sequences (sustained uptrend) and tighten stops when gray candles appear, signaling potential trend weakness.
Tips for Use Adjust the MA Length to suit your trading style (e.g., shorter for scalping, longer for swing trading).
Combine with other indicators (e.g., support/resistance, MACD) for better accuracy.
Test on different timeframes to match your strategy.
Recommended MA Length for 1-Minute Charts Short-Term/Scalping (1-5 minute trades):10-period SMA : Very sensitive, ideal for capturing quick price movements in fast markets. May produce more noise (false signals).
20-period SMA : A balanced choice for 1-minute charts, smoothing minor fluctuations while reacting to short-term trends. A great starting point for scalpers.
Intraday Trend Trading (10-30 minute holds):50-period SMA : Captures broader intraday trends, reducing noise but lagging slightly. Suitable for larger moves within a session.
This indicator simplifies trend identification, making it a versatile tool for traders of all styles, from beginners to advanced users!
Recommended MA Length for Swing Trading / Higher Timeframes Swing Trading (holding trades for days to weeks):50-period SMA : A popular choice for swing traders on higher timeframes (e.g., 1-hour or 4-hour charts). It smooths out short-term fluctuations while identifying medium-term trends. Ideal for capturing multi-day swings.
100-period SMA : Slightly longer, this MA is great for confirming stronger, more sustained trends. It’s useful on 4-hour or daily charts for swing traders aiming to ride larger price moves.
Longer-Term Trend Trading (holding for weeks to months):200-period SMA : A classic choice for higher timeframes like daily or weekly charts. It highlights major market trends and is widely used by swing and position traders to filter out noise and focus on long-term direction.
150-period SMA : A middle ground between the 100 and 200 SMA, suitable for daily charts when you want a balance between responsiveness and trend reliability.
Hidden Impulse═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
HIDDEN IMPULSE - Multi-Timeframe Momentum Detection System
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OVERVIEW
Hidden Impulse is an advanced momentum oscillator that combines the Schaff Trend Cycle (STC) and Force Index into a comprehensive multi-timeframe trading system. Unlike standard implementations of these indicators, this script introduces three distinct trading setups with specific entry conditions, multi-timeframe confirmation, and trend filtering.
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ORIGINALITY & KEY FEATURES
This indicator is original in the following ways:
1. DUAL-TIMEFRAME STC ANALYSIS
Standard STC implementations work on a single timeframe. This script
simultaneously analyzes STC on both your trading timeframe and a higher
timeframe, providing trend context and filtering out low-probability signals.
2. FORCE INDEX INTEGRATION
The script combines STC with Force Index (volume-weighted price momentum)
to confirm the strength behind price moves. This combination helps identify
when momentum shifts are backed by genuine buying/selling pressure.
3. THREE DISTINCT TRADING SETUPS
Rather than generic overbought/oversold signals, the indicator provides
three specific, rule-based setups:
- Setup A: Classic trend-following entries with multi-timeframe confirmation
- Setup B: Divergence-based reversal entries (highest probability)
- Setup C: Mean-reversion bounce trades at extreme levels
4. INTELLIGENT FILTERING
All signals are filtered through:
- 50 EMA trend direction (prevents counter-trend trades)
- Higher timeframe STC alignment (ensures macro trend agreement)
- Force Index confirmation (validates volume support)
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HOW IT WORKS - TECHNICAL EXPLANATION
SCHAFF TREND CYCLE (STC) CALCULATION:
The STC is a cyclical oscillator that combines MACD concepts with stochastic
smoothing to create earlier and smoother trend signals.
Step 1: Calculate MACD
- Fast MA = EMA(close, Length1) — default 23
- Slow MA = EMA(close, Length2) — default 50
- MACD Line = Fast MA - Slow MA
Step 2: First Stochastic Smoothing
- Apply stochastic calculation to MACD
- Stoch1 = 100 × (MACD - Lowest(MACD, Smoothing)) / (Highest(MACD, Smoothing) - Lowest(MACD, Smoothing))
- Smooth result with EMA(Stoch1, Smoothing) — default 10
Step 3: Second Stochastic Smoothing
- Apply stochastic calculation again to the smoothed stochastic
- This creates the final STC value between 0-100
The dual stochastic smoothing makes STC more responsive than MACD while
being smoother than traditional stochastics.
FORCE INDEX CALCULATION:
Force Index measures the power behind price movements by incorporating volume:
Force Raw = (Close - Close ) × Volume
Force Index = EMA(Force Raw, Period) — default 13
Interpretation:
- Positive Force Index = Buying pressure (bulls in control)
- Negative Force Index = Selling pressure (bears in control)
- Force Index crossing zero = Momentum shift
- Divergences with price = Weakening momentum (reversal signal)
TREND FILTER:
A 50-period EMA serves as the trend filter:
- Price above EMA50 = Uptrend → Only LONG signals allowed
- Price below EMA50 = Downtrend → Only SHORT signals allowed
This prevents counter-trend trading which accounts for most losing trades.
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THE THREE TRADING SETUPS - DETAILED
SETUP A: CLASSIC MOMENTUM ENTRY
Concept: Enter when STC exits oversold/overbought zones with trend confirmation
LONG CONDITIONS:
1. Higher timeframe STC > 25 (macro trend is up)
2. Primary timeframe STC crosses above 25 (momentum turning up)
3. Force Index crosses above 0 OR already positive (volume confirms)
4. Price above 50 EMA (local trend is up)
SHORT CONDITIONS:
1. Higher timeframe STC < 75 (macro trend is down)
2. Primary timeframe STC crosses below 75 (momentum turning down)
3. Force Index crosses below 0 OR already negative (volume confirms)
4. Price below 50 EMA (local trend is down)
Best for: Trending markets, continuation trades
Win rate: Moderate (60-65%)
Risk/Reward: 1:2 to 1:3
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SETUP B: DIVERGENCE REVERSAL (HIGHEST PROBABILITY)
Concept: Identify exhaustion points where price makes new extremes but
momentum (Force Index) fails to confirm
BULLISH DIVERGENCE:
1. Price makes a lower low (LL) over 10 bars
2. Force Index makes a higher low (HL) — refuses to follow price down
3. STC is below 25 (oversold condition)
Trigger: STC starts rising AND Force Index crosses above zero
BEARISH DIVERGENCE:
1. Price makes a higher high (HH) over 10 bars
2. Force Index makes a lower high (LH) — refuses to follow price up
3. STC is above 75 (overbought condition)
Trigger: STC starts falling AND Force Index crosses below zero
Why this works: Divergences signal that the current trend is losing steam.
When volume (Force Index) doesn't confirm new price extremes, a reversal
is likely.
Best for: Reversal trading, range-bound markets
Win rate: High (70-75%)
Risk/Reward: 1:3 to 1:5
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SETUP C: QUICK BOUNCE AT EXTREMES
Concept: Catch rapid mean-reversion moves when price touches EMA50 in
extreme STC zones
LONG CONDITIONS:
1. Price touches 50 EMA from above (pullback in uptrend)
2. STC < 15 (extreme oversold)
3. Force Index > 0 (buyers stepping in)
SHORT CONDITIONS:
1. Price touches 50 EMA from below (pullback in downtrend)
2. STC > 85 (extreme overbought)
3. Force Index < 0 (sellers stepping in)
Best for: Scalping, quick mean-reversion trades
Win rate: Moderate (55-60%)
Risk/Reward: 1:1 to 1:2
Note: Use tighter stops and quick profit-taking
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HOW TO USE THE INDICATOR
STEP 1: CONFIGURE TIMEFRAMES
Primary Timeframe (STC - Primary Timeframe):
- Leave empty to use your current chart timeframe
- This is where you'll take trades
Higher Timeframe (STC - Higher Timeframe):
- Default: 30 minutes
- Recommended ratios:
* 5min chart → 30min higher TF
* 15min chart → 1H higher TF
* 1H chart → 4H higher TF
* Daily chart → Weekly higher TF
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STEP 2: ADJUST STC PARAMETERS FOR YOUR MARKET
Default (23/50/10) works well for stocks and forex, but adjust for:
CRYPTO (volatile):
- Length 1: 15
- Length 2: 35
- Smoothing: 8
(Faster response for rapid price movements)
STOCKS (standard):
- Length 1: 23
- Length 2: 50
- Smoothing: 10
(Balanced settings)
FOREX MAJORS (slower):
- Length 1: 30
- Length 2: 60
- Smoothing: 12
(Filters out noise in 24/7 markets)
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STEP 3: ENABLE YOUR PREFERRED SETUPS
Toggle setups based on your trading style:
Conservative Trader:
✓ Setup B (Divergence) — highest win rate
✗ Setup A (Classic) — only in strong trends
✗ Setup C (Bounce) — too aggressive
Trend Trader:
✓ Setup A (Classic) — primary signals
✓ Setup B (Divergence) — for entries on pullbacks
✗ Setup C (Bounce) — not suitable for trending
Scalper:
✓ Setup C (Bounce) — quick in-and-out
✓ Setup B (Divergence) — high probability scalps
✗ Setup A (Classic) — too slow
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STEP 4: READ THE SIGNALS
ON THE CHART:
Labels appear when conditions are met:
Green labels:
- "LONG A" — Setup A long entry
- "LONG B DIV" — Setup B divergence long (best signal)
- "LONG C" — Setup C bounce long
Red labels:
- "SHORT A" — Setup A short entry
- "SHORT B DIV" — Setup B divergence short (best signal)
- "SHORT C" — Setup C bounce short
IN THE INDICATOR PANEL (bottom):
- Blue line = Primary timeframe STC
- Orange dots = Higher timeframe STC (optional)
- Green/Red bars = Force Index histogram
- Dashed lines at 25/75 = Entry/Exit zones
- Background shading = Oversold (green) / Overbought (red)
INFO TABLE (top-right corner):
Shows real-time status:
- STC values for both timeframes
- Force Index direction
- Price position vs EMA
- Current trend direction
- Active signal type
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TRADING STRATEGY & RISK MANAGEMENT
ENTRY RULES:
Priority ranking (best to worst):
1st: Setup B (Divergence) — wait for these
2nd: Setup A (Classic) — in confirmed trends only
3rd: Setup C (Bounce) — scalping only
Confirmation checklist before entry:
☑ Signal label appears on chart
☑ TREND in info table matches signal direction
☑ Higher timeframe STC aligned (check orange dots or table)
☑ Force Index confirming (check histogram color)
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STOP LOSS PLACEMENT:
Setup A (Classic):
- LONG: Below recent swing low
- SHORT: Above recent swing high
- Typical: 1-2 ATR distance
Setup B (Divergence):
- LONG: Below the divergence low
- SHORT: Above the divergence high
- Typical: 0.5-1.5 ATR distance
Setup C (Bounce):
- LONG: 5-10 pips below EMA50
- SHORT: 5-10 pips above EMA50
- Typical: 0.3-0.8 ATR distance
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TAKE PROFIT TARGETS:
Conservative approach:
- Exit when STC reaches opposite level
- LONG: Exit when STC > 75
- SHORT: Exit when STC < 25
Aggressive approach:
- Hold until opposite signal appears
- Trail stop as STC moves in your favor
Partial profits:
- Take 50% at 1:2 risk/reward
- Let remaining 50% run to target
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WHAT TO AVOID:
❌ Trading Setup A in sideways/choppy markets
→ Wait for clear trend or use Setup B only
❌ Ignoring higher timeframe STC
→ Always check orange dots align with your direction
❌ Taking signals against the major trend
→ If weekly trend is down, be cautious with longs
❌ Overtrading Setup C
→ Maximum 2-3 bounce trades per session
❌ Trading during low volume periods
→ Force Index becomes unreliable
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ALERTS CONFIGURATION
The indicator includes 8 alert types:
Individual setup alerts:
- "Setup A - LONG" / "Setup A - SHORT"
- "Setup B - DIV LONG" / "Setup B - DIV SHORT" ⭐ recommended
- "Setup C - BOUNCE LONG" / "Setup C - BOUNCE SHORT"
Combined alerts:
- "ANY LONG" — fires on any long signal
- "ANY SHORT" — fires on any short signal
Recommended alert setup:
- Create "Setup B - DIV LONG" and "Setup B - DIV SHORT" alerts
- These are the highest probability signals
- Set "Once Per Bar Close" to avoid false alerts
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VISUALIZATION SETTINGS
Show Labels on Chart:
Toggle on/off the signal labels (green/red)
Disable for cleaner chart once you're familiar with the indicator
Show Higher TF STC:
Toggle the orange dots showing higher timeframe STC
Useful for visual confirmation of multi-timeframe alignment
Info Panel:
Cannot be disabled — always shows current status
Positioned top-right to avoid chart interference
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EXAMPLE TRADE WALKTHROUGH
SETUP B DIVERGENCE LONG EXAMPLE:
1. Market Context:
- Price in downtrend, below 50 EMA
- Multiple lower lows forming
- STC below 25 (oversold)
2. Divergence Formation:
- Price makes new low at $45.20
- Force Index refuses to make new low (higher low forms)
- This indicates selling pressure weakening
3. Signal Trigger:
- STC starts turning up
- Force Index crosses above zero
- Label appears: "LONG B DIV"
4. Trade Execution:
- Entry: $45.50 (current price at signal)
- Stop Loss: $44.80 (below divergence low)
- Target 1: $47.90 (STC reaches 75) — risk/reward 1:3.4
- Target 2: Opposite signal or trail stop
5. Trade Management:
- Price rallies to $47.20
- STC reaches 68 (approaching target zone)
- Take 50% profit, move stop to breakeven
- Exit remaining at $48.10 when STC crosses 75
Result: 3.7R gain
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ADVANCED TIPS
1. MULTI-TIMEFRAME CONFLUENCE
For highest probability trades, wait for:
- Primary TF signal
- Higher TF STC aligned (>25 for longs, <75 for shorts)
- Even higher TF trend in same direction (manual check)
2. VOLUME CONFIRMATION
Watch the Force Index histogram:
- Increasing bar size = Strengthening momentum
- Decreasing bar size = Weakening momentum
- Use this to gauge signal strength
3. AVOID THESE MARKET CONDITIONS
- Major news events (Force Index becomes erratic)
- Market open first 30 minutes (volatility spikes)
- Low liquidity instruments (Force Index unreliable)
- Extreme trending days (wait for pullbacks)
4. COMBINE WITH SUPPORT/RESISTANCE
Best signals occur near:
- Key horizontal levels
- Fibonacci retracements
- Previous day's high/low
- Psychological round numbers
5. SESSION AWARENESS
- Asia session: Use lower timeframes, Setup C works well
- London session: Setup A and B both effective
- New York session: All setups work, highest volume
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INDICATOR WINDOWS LAYOUT
MAIN CHART:
- Price action
- 50 EMA (green/red)
- Signal labels
- Info panel
INDICATOR WINDOW:
- STC oscillator (blue line, 0-100 scale)
- Higher TF STC (orange dots, optional)
- Force Index histogram (green/red bars)
- Reference levels (25, 50, 75)
- Background zones (green oversold, red overbought)
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PERFORMANCE OPTIMIZATION
For best results:
Backtesting:
- Test on your specific instrument and timeframe
- Adjust STC parameters if win rate < 55%
- Record which setup works best for your market
Position Sizing:
- Risk 1-2% per trade
- Setup B can use 2% risk (higher win rate)
- Setup C should use 1% risk (lower win rate)
Trade Frequency:
- Setup B: 2-5 signals per week (be patient)
- Setup A: 5-10 signals per week
- Setup C: 10+ signals per week (scalping)
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CREDITS & REFERENCES
This indicator builds upon established technical analysis concepts:
Schaff Trend Cycle:
- Developed by Doug Schaff (1996)
- Original concept published in Technical Analysis of Stocks & Commodities
- Implementation based on standard STC formula
Force Index:
- Developed by Dr. Alexander Elder
- Described in "Trading for a Living" (1993)
- Classic volume-momentum indicator
The multi-timeframe integration, three-setup system, and specific
entry conditions are original contributions of this indicator.
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DISCLAIMER
This indicator is a technical analysis tool and does not guarantee profits.
Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always:
- Use proper risk management
- Test on demo account first
- Combine with fundamental analysis
- Never risk more than you can afford to lose
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SUPPORT & QUESTIONS
If you find this indicator helpful, please:
- Leave a like and comment
- Share your feedback and results
- Report any bugs or issues
For questions about usage or optimization for specific markets,
feel free to comment below.
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Dynamic Market Structure (MTF) - Dow TheoryDynamic Market Structure (MTF)
OVERVIEW
This advanced indicator provides a comprehensive and fully customizable solution for analyzing market structure based on classic Dow Theory principles. It automates the identification of key structural points, including Higher Highs (HH), Higher Lows (HL), Lower Lows (LL), and Lower Highs (LH).
Going beyond simple pivot detection, this tool visualizes the flow of the trend by plotting dynamic Breaks of Structure (BOS) and potential reversals with Changes of Character (CHoCH). It is designed to be a flexible and powerful tool for traders who use price action and trend analysis as a core part of their strategy.
CORE CONCEPTS
The indicator is built on the foundational principles of Dow Theory:
Uptrend: A series of Higher Highs and Higher Lows.
Downtrend: A series of Lower Lows and Lower Highs.
Break of Structure (BOS): Occurs when price action continues the current trend by creating a new HH in an uptrend or a new LL in a downtrend.
Change of Character (CHoCH): Occurs when the established trend sequence is broken, signaling a potential reversal. For example, when a Lower Low forms after a series of Higher Highs.
CALCULATION METHODOLOGY
This section explains the indicator's underlying logic:
Pivot Detection: The indicator's core logic is based on TradingView's built-in ta.pivothigh() and ta.pivotlow() functions. The sensitivity of this detection is fully controlled by the user via the Pivot Lookback Left and Pivot Lookback Right settings.
Structure Calculation (BOS/CHoCH): The script identifies market structure by analyzing the sequence of these confirmed pivots.
A bullish BOS is plotted when a new ta.pivothigh is confirmed at a price higher than the previous confirmed ta.pivothigh.
A bearish CHoCH is plotted when a new ta.pivotlow is confirmed at a price lower than the previous confirmed ta.pivotlow , breaking the established sequence of higher lows.
The logic is mirrored for bearish BOS and bullish CHoCH.
Invalidation Levels: This feature identifies the last confirmed pivot before a structure break (e.g., the last ta.pivotlow before a bullish BOS) and plots a dotted line from it to the breakout bar. This level is considered the structural invalidation point for that move.
MTF Confirmation: This unique feature provides confluence by analyzing a second, lower timeframe. When a pivot (e.g., a Higher Low) is confirmed on the main chart, the script requests pivot data from the user-selected lower timeframe. If a corresponding trend reversal is detected on that lower timeframe (e.g., a break of its own minor downtrend), the pivot is labeled "Firm" (FHL); otherwise, it is labeled "Soft" (SHL).
KEY FEATURES
This indicator is packed with advanced features designed to provide a deeper level of market insight:
Dynamic Structure Lines: BOS and CHoCH levels are plotted with clean, dashed lines that dynamically start at the old pivot and terminate precisely at the breakout bar, keeping the chart clean and precise.
Invalidation Levels: For every structure break, the indicator can plot a dotted "Invalidation" line (INV). This marks the critical support or resistance pivot that, if broken, would negate the previous move, providing a clear reference for risk management.
Multi-Timeframe (MTF) Confirmation: Add a layer of confluence to your analysis by confirming pivots on a lower timeframe. The indicator can label Higher Lows and Lower Highs as either "Firm" (FHL/FLH) if confirmed by a reversal on a lower timeframe, or "Soft" (SHL/SLH) if not.
Flexible Pivot Detection: Fully adjustable Pivot Lookback settings for the left and right sides allow you to tune the indicator's sensitivity to match any timeframe or trading style, from long-term investing to short-term scalping.
Full Customization: Take complete control of the indicator's appearance. A dedicated style menu allows you to customize the colors for all bullish, bearish, and reversal elements, including the transparency of the trend-based candle coloring.
HOW TO USE
Trend Identification: Use the sequence of HH/HL and LL/LH, along with the trend-colored candles, to quickly assess the current market direction on any timeframe.
Entry Signals: A confirmed BOS can signal a potential entry in the direction of the trend. A CHoCH can signal a potential reversal, offering an opportunity to enter a new trend early.
Risk Management: Use the automatically plotted "Invalidation" (INV) lines as a logical reference point for placing stop losses. A break of this level indicates that the structure you were trading has failed.
Confluence: Use the "Firm" pivot signals from the MTF analysis to identify high-probability swing points that are supported by price action on multiple timeframes.
SETTINGS BREAKDOWN
Pivot Lookback Left/Right: Controls the sensitivity of pivot detection. Higher numbers find more significant (but fewer) pivots.
MTF Confirmation: Enable/disable the "Firm" vs. "Soft" pivot analysis and select your preferred lower timeframe for confirmation.
Style Settings: Customize all colors and the transparency of the candle coloring to match your chart's theme.
Show Invalidation Levels: Toggle the visibility of the dotted invalidation lines.
This indicator is a powerful tool for visualizing and trading with the trend. Experiment with the settings to find a configuration that best fits your personal trading strategy.
Historical Matrix Analyzer [PhenLabs]📊Historical Matrix Analyzer
Version: PineScriptv6
📌Description
The Historical Matrix Analyzer is an advanced probabilistic trading tool that transforms technical analysis into a data-driven decision support system. By creating a comprehensive 56-cell matrix that tracks every combination of RSI states and multi-indicator conditions, this indicator reveals which market patterns have historically led to profitable outcomes and which have not.
At its core, the indicator continuously monitors seven distinct RSI states (ranging from Extreme Oversold to Extreme Overbought) and eight unique indicator combinations (MACD direction, volume levels, and price momentum). For each of these 56 possible market states, the system calculates average forward returns, win rates, and occurrence counts based on your configurable lookback period. The result is a color-coded probability matrix that shows you exactly where you stand in the historical performance landscape.
The standout feature is the Current State Panel, which provides instant clarity on your active market conditions. This panel displays signal strength classifications (from Strong Bullish to Strong Bearish), the average return percentage for similar past occurrences, an estimated win rate using Bayesian smoothing to prevent small-sample distortions, and a confidence level indicator that warns you when insufficient data exists for reliable conclusions.
🚀Points of Innovation
Multi-dimensional state classification combining 7 RSI levels with 8 indicator combinations for 56 unique trackable market conditions
Bayesian win rate estimation with adjustable smoothing strength to provide stable probability estimates even with limited historical samples
Real-time active cell highlighting with “NOW” marker that visually connects current market conditions to their historical performance data
Configurable color intensity sensitivity allowing traders to adjust heat-map responsiveness from conservative to aggressive visual feedback
Dual-panel display system separating the comprehensive statistics matrix from an easy-to-read current state summary panel
Intelligent confidence scoring that automatically warns traders when occurrence counts fall below reliable thresholds
🔧Core Components
RSI State Classification: Segments RSI readings into 7 distinct zones (Extreme Oversold <20, Oversold 20-30, Weak 30-40, Neutral 40-60, Strong 60-70, Overbought 70-80, Extreme Overbought >80) to capture momentum extremes and transitions
Multi-Indicator Condition Tracking: Simultaneously monitors MACD crossover status (bullish/bearish), volume relative to moving average (high/low), and price direction (rising/falling) creating 8 binary-encoded combinations
Historical Data Storage Arrays: Maintains rolling lookback windows storing RSI states, indicator states, prices, and bar indices for precise forward-return calculations
Forward Performance Calculator: Measures price changes over configurable forward bar periods (1-20 bars) from each historical state, accumulating total returns and win counts per matrix cell
Bayesian Smoothing Engine: Applies statistical prior assumptions (default 50% win rate) weighted by user-defined strength parameter to stabilize estimated win rates when sample sizes are small
Dynamic Color Mapping System: Converts average returns into color-coded heat map with intensity adjusted by sensitivity parameter and transparency modified by confidence levels
🔥Key Features
56-Cell Probability Matrix: Comprehensive grid displaying every possible combination of RSI state and indicator condition, with each cell showing average return percentage, estimated win rate, and occurrence count for complete statistical visibility
Current State Info Panel: Dedicated display showing your exact position in the matrix with signal strength emoji indicators, numerical statistics, and color-coded confidence warnings for immediate situational awareness
Customizable Lookback Period: Adjustable historical window from 50 to 500 bars allowing traders to focus on recent market behavior or capture longer-term pattern stability across different market cycles
Configurable Forward Performance Window: Select target holding periods from 1 to 20 bars ahead to align probability calculations with your trading timeframe, whether day trading or swing trading
Visual Heat Mapping: Color-coded cells transition from red (bearish historical performance) through gray (neutral) to green (bullish performance) with intensity reflecting statistical significance and occurrence frequency
Intelligent Data Filtering: Minimum occurrence threshold (1-10) removes unreliable patterns with insufficient historical samples, displaying gray warning colors for low-confidence cells
Flexible Layout Options: Independent positioning of statistics matrix and info panel to any screen corner, accommodating different chart layouts and personal preferences
Tooltip Details: Hover over any matrix cell to see full RSI label, complete indicator status description, precise average return, estimated win rate, and total occurrence count
🎨Visualization
Statistics Matrix Table: A 9-column by 8-row grid with RSI states labeling vertical axis and indicator combinations on horizontal axis, using compact abbreviations (XOverS, OverB, MACD↑, Vol↓, P↑) for space efficiency
Active Cell Indicator: The current market state cell displays “⦿ NOW ⦿” in yellow text with enhanced color saturation to immediately draw attention to relevant historical performance
Signal Strength Visualization: Info panel uses emoji indicators (🔥 Strong Bullish, ✅ Bullish, ↗️ Weak Bullish, ➖ Neutral, ↘️ Weak Bearish, ⛔ Bearish, ❄️ Strong Bearish, ⚠️ Insufficient Data) for rapid interpretation
Histogram Plot: Below the price chart, a green/red histogram displays the current cell’s average return percentage, providing a time-series view of how historical performance changes as market conditions evolve
Color Intensity Scaling: Cell background transparency and saturation dynamically adjust based on both the magnitude of average returns and the occurrence count, ensuring visual emphasis on reliable patterns
Confidence Level Display: Info panel bottom row shows “High Confidence” (green), “Medium Confidence” (orange), or “Low Confidence” (red) based on occurrence counts relative to minimum threshold multipliers
📖Usage Guidelines
RSI Period
Default: 14
Range: 1 to unlimited
Description: Controls the lookback period for RSI momentum calculation. Standard 14-period provides widely-recognized overbought/oversold levels. Decrease for faster, more sensitive RSI reactions suitable for scalping. Increase (21, 28) for smoother, longer-term momentum assessment in swing trading. Changes affect how quickly the indicator moves between the 7 RSI state classifications.
MACD Fast Length
Default: 12
Range: 1 to unlimited
Description: Sets the faster exponential moving average for MACD calculation. Standard 12-period setting works well for daily charts and captures short-term momentum shifts. Decreasing creates more responsive MACD crossovers but increases false signals. Increasing smooths out noise but delays signal generation, affecting the bullish/bearish indicator state classification.
MACD Slow Length
Default: 26
Range: 1 to unlimited
Description: Defines the slower exponential moving average for MACD calculation. Traditional 26-period setting balances trend identification with responsiveness. Must be greater than Fast Length. Wider spread between fast and slow increases MACD sensitivity to trend changes, impacting the frequency of indicator state transitions in the matrix.
MACD Signal Length
Default: 9
Range: 1 to unlimited
Description: Smoothing period for the MACD signal line that triggers bullish/bearish state changes. Standard 9-period provides reliable crossover signals. Shorter values create more frequent state changes and earlier signals but with more whipsaws. Longer values produce more confirmed, stable signals but with increased lag in detecting momentum shifts.
Volume MA Period
Default: 20
Range: 1 to unlimited
Description: Lookback period for volume moving average used to classify volume as “high” or “low” in indicator state combinations. 20-period default captures typical monthly trading patterns. Shorter periods (10-15) make volume classification more reactive to recent spikes. Longer periods (30-50) require more sustained volume changes to trigger state classification shifts.
Statistics Lookback Period
Default: 200
Range: 50 to 500
Description: Number of historical bars used to calculate matrix statistics. 200 bars provides substantial data for reliable patterns while remaining responsive to regime changes. Lower values (50-100) emphasize recent market behavior and adapt quickly but may produce volatile statistics. Higher values (300-500) capture long-term patterns with stable statistics but slower adaptation to changing market dynamics.
Forward Performance Bars
Default: 5
Range: 1 to 20
Description: Number of bars ahead used to calculate forward returns from each historical state occurrence. 5-bar default suits intraday to short-term swing trading (5 hours on hourly charts, 1 week on daily charts). Lower values (1-3) target short-term momentum trades. Higher values (10-20) align with position trading and longer-term pattern exploitation.
Color Intensity Sensitivity
Default: 2.0
Range: 0.5 to 5.0, step 0.5
Description: Amplifies or dampens the color intensity response to average return magnitudes in the matrix heat map. 2.0 default provides balanced visual emphasis. Lower values (0.5-1.0) create subtle coloring requiring larger returns for full saturation, useful for volatile instruments. Higher values (3.0-5.0) produce vivid colors from smaller returns, highlighting subtle edges in range-bound markets.
Minimum Occurrences for Coloring
Default: 3
Range: 1 to 10
Description: Required minimum sample size before applying color-coded performance to matrix cells. Cells with fewer occurrences display gray “insufficient data” warning. 3-occurrence default filters out rare patterns. Lower threshold (1-2) shows more data but includes unreliable single-event statistics. Higher thresholds (5-10) ensure only well-established patterns receive visual emphasis.
Table Position
Default: top_right
Options: top_left, top_right, bottom_left, bottom_right
Description: Screen location for the 56-cell statistics matrix table. Position to avoid overlapping critical price action or other indicators on your chart. Consider chart orientation and candlestick density when selecting optimal placement.
Show Current State Panel
Default: true
Options: true, false
Description: Toggle visibility of the dedicated current state information panel. When enabled, displays signal strength, RSI value, indicator status, average return, estimated win rate, and confidence level for active market conditions. Disable to declutter charts when only the matrix table is needed.
Info Panel Position
Default: bottom_left
Options: top_left, top_right, bottom_left, bottom_right
Description: Screen location for the current state information panel (when enabled). Position independently from statistics matrix to optimize chart real estate. Typically placed opposite the matrix table for balanced visual layout.
Win Rate Smoothing Strength
Default: 5
Range: 1 to 20
Description: Controls Bayesian prior weighting for estimated win rate calculations. Acts as virtual sample size assuming 50% win rate baseline. Default 5 provides moderate smoothing preventing extreme win rate estimates from small samples. Lower values (1-3) reduce smoothing effect, allowing win rates to reflect raw data more directly. Higher values (10-20) increase conservatism, pulling win rate estimates toward 50% until substantial evidence accumulates.
✅Best Use Cases
Pattern-based discretionary trading where you want historical confirmation before entering setups that “look good” based on current technical alignment
Swing trading with holding periods matching your forward performance bar setting, using high-confidence bullish cells as entry filters
Risk assessment and position sizing, allocating larger size to trades originating from cells with strong positive average returns and high estimated win rates
Market regime identification by observing which RSI states and indicator combinations are currently producing the most reliable historical patterns
Backtesting validation by comparing your manual strategy signals against the historical performance of the corresponding matrix cells
Educational tool for developing intuition about which technical condition combinations have actually worked versus those that feel right but lack historical evidence
⚠️Limitations
Historical patterns do not guarantee future performance, especially during unprecedented market events or regime changes not represented in the lookback period
Small sample sizes (low occurrence counts) produce unreliable statistics despite Bayesian smoothing, requiring caution when acting on low-confidence cells
Matrix statistics lag behind rapidly changing market conditions, as the lookback period must accumulate new state occurrences before updating performance data
Forward return calculations use fixed bar periods that may not align with actual trade exit timing, support/resistance levels, or volatility-adjusted profit targets
💡What Makes This Unique
Multi-Dimensional State Space: Unlike single-indicator tools, simultaneously tracks 56 distinct market condition combinations providing granular pattern resolution unavailable in traditional technical analysis
Bayesian Statistical Rigor: Implements proper probabilistic smoothing to prevent overconfidence from limited data, a critical feature missing from most pattern recognition tools
Real-Time Contextual Feedback: The “NOW” marker and dedicated info panel instantly connect current market conditions to their historical performance profile, eliminating guesswork
Transparent Occurrence Counts: Displays sample sizes directly in each cell, allowing traders to judge statistical reliability themselves rather than hiding data quality issues
Fully Customizable Analysis Window: Complete control over lookback depth and forward return horizons lets traders align the tool precisely with their trading timeframe and strategy requirements
🔬How It Works
1. State Classification and Encoding
Each bar’s RSI value is evaluated and assigned to one of 7 discrete states based on threshold levels (0: <20, 1: 20-30, 2: 30-40, 3: 40-60, 4: 60-70, 5: 70-80, 6: >80)
Simultaneously, three binary conditions are evaluated: MACD line position relative to signal line, current volume relative to its moving average, and current close relative to previous close
These three binary conditions are combined into a single indicator state integer (0-7) using binary encoding, creating 8 possible indicator combinations
The RSI state and indicator state are stored together, defining one of 56 possible market condition cells in the matrix
2. Historical Data Accumulation
As each bar completes, the current state classification, closing price, and bar index are stored in rolling arrays maintained at the size specified by the lookback period
When the arrays reach capacity, the oldest data point is removed and the newest added, creating a sliding historical window
This continuous process builds a comprehensive database of past market conditions and their subsequent price movements
3. Forward Return Calculation and Statistics Update
On each bar, the indicator looks back through the stored historical data to find bars where sufficient forward bars exist to measure outcomes
For each historical occurrence, the price change from that bar to the bar N periods ahead (where N is the forward performance bars setting) is calculated as a percentage return
This percentage return is added to the cumulative return total for the specific matrix cell corresponding to that historical bar’s state classification
Occurrence counts are incremented, and wins are tallied for positive returns, building comprehensive statistics for each of the 56 cells
The Bayesian smoothing formula combines these raw statistics with prior assumptions (neutral 50% win rate) weighted by the smoothing strength parameter to produce estimated win rates that remain stable even with small samples
💡Note:
The Historical Matrix Analyzer is designed as a decision support tool, not a standalone trading system. Best results come from using it to validate discretionary trade ideas or filter systematic strategy signals. Always combine matrix insights with proper risk management, position sizing rules, and awareness of broader market context. The estimated win rate feature uses Bayesian statistics specifically to prevent false confidence from limited data, but no amount of smoothing can create reliable predictions from fundamentally insufficient sample sizes. Focus on high-confidence cells (green-colored confidence indicators) with occurrence counts well above your minimum threshold for the most actionable insights.
DAMMU Swing Trading PRODammu Scalping Pro – Short Notes
1️⃣ Purpose:
Scalping and swing trading tool for 15-min and 1-min charts.
Designed for trend continuation, pullbacks, and reversals.
Works well with Heikin Ashi candles (optional).
2️⃣ Core Components:
EMAs:
Fast: EMA5-12
Medium: EMA12-36 Ribbon
Long: EMA75/89 (1-min), EMA180/200 (15-min), EMA540/633
Price Action Channel (PAC): EMA-based High, Low, Close channel.
Fractals: Regular & filtered (BW) fractals for swing recognition.
Higher Highs / Lower Highs / Higher Lows / Lower Lows (HH, LH, HL, LL).
Pivot Points: Optional display with labels.
3️⃣ Bar Coloring:
Blue: Close above PAC
Red: Close below PAC
Gray: Close inside PAC
4️⃣ Alerts:
Swing Buy/Sell arrows based on PAC breakout and EMA200 filter.
Optional “Big Arrows” mode for visibility.
Alert messages: "SWING_UP" and "SWING_DN"
5️⃣ Workflow / Usage Tips:
Set chart to 15-min (for trend) + 1-min (for entry).
Optionally enable Heikin Ashi candles.
Trade long only above EMA200, short only below EMA200.
Watch for pullbacks into EMA channels or ribbons.
Confirm trend resumption via PAC breakout & bar color change.
Use fractals and pivot points to draw trendlines and locate support/resistance.
6️⃣ Optional Filters:
Filter PAC signals with 200 EMA.
Filter fractals for “Pristine/Ideal” patterns (BW filter).
7️⃣ Visuals:
EMA ribbons, PAC fill, HH/LL squares, fractal triangles.
Pivot labels & candle numbering for patterns.
8️⃣ Notes:
No extra indicators needed except optionally SweetSpot Gold2 for major S/R levels.
Suitable for scalping pullbacks with trend confirmation.
If you want, I can make an even shorter “one-screen cheat sheet” with colors, alerts, and EMAs, perfect for real-time chart reference.
Do you want me to do that?
DAMMU Swing Trading PRODammu Scalping Pro – Short Notes
1️⃣ Purpose:
Scalping and swing trading tool for 15-min and 1-min charts.
Designed for trend continuation, pullbacks, and reversals.
Works well with Heikin Ashi candles (optional).
2️⃣ Core Components:
EMAs:
Fast: EMA5-12
Medium: EMA12-36 Ribbon
Long: EMA75/89 (1-min), EMA180/200 (15-min), EMA540/633
Price Action Channel (PAC): EMA-based High, Low, Close channel.
Fractals: Regular & filtered (BW) fractals for swing recognition.
Higher Highs / Lower Highs / Higher Lows / Lower Lows (HH, LH, HL, LL).
Pivot Points: Optional display with labels.
3️⃣ Bar Coloring:
Blue: Close above PAC
Red: Close below PAC
Gray: Close inside PAC
4️⃣ Alerts:
Swing Buy/Sell arrows based on PAC breakout and EMA200 filter.
Optional “Big Arrows” mode for visibility.
Alert messages: "SWING_UP" and "SWING_DN"
5️⃣ Workflow / Usage Tips:
Set chart to 15-min (for trend) + 1-min (for entry).
Optionally enable Heikin Ashi candles.
Trade long only above EMA200, short only below EMA200.
Watch for pullbacks into EMA channels or ribbons.
Confirm trend resumption via PAC breakout & bar color change.
Use fractals and pivot points to draw trendlines and locate support/resistance.
6️⃣ Optional Filters:
Filter PAC signals with 200 EMA.
Filter fractals for “Pristine/Ideal” patterns (BW filter).
7️⃣ Visuals:
EMA ribbons, PAC fill, HH/LL squares, fractal triangles.
Pivot labels & candle numbering for patterns.
8️⃣ Notes:
No extra indicators needed except optionally SweetSpot Gold2 for major S/R levels.
Suitable for scalping pullbacks with trend confirmation.
If you want, I can make an even shorter “one-screen cheat sheet” with colors, alerts, and EMAs, perfect for real-time charT
nadia
Gold ramon strategy based on 50 candles and atr of 12
You enter the maximum of 50 candles once the most bearish starts to rise, we expect 10 candles, if you don't go up in 10 candles, you don't enter, if you go up before 10 candles, you enter.
When is TP? Enough with 5 candles
The temporality is 1 hour. It can be adjusted to 1 minute temporality for scalping.
It is never lost, because it always exceeds the previous maximums.
Quantum Flux Universal Strategy Summary in one paragraph
Quantum Flux Universal is a regime switching strategy for stocks, ETFs, index futures, major FX pairs, and liquid crypto on intraday and swing timeframes. It helps you act only when the normalized core signal and its guide agree on direction. It is original because the engine fuses three adaptive drivers into the smoothing gains itself. Directional intensity is measured with binary entropy, path efficiency shapes trend quality, and a volatility squash preserves contrast. Add it to a clean chart, watch the polarity lane and background, and trade from positive or negative alignment. For conservative workflows use on bar close in the alert settings when you add alerts in a later version.
Scope and intent
• Markets. Large cap equities and ETFs. Index futures. Major FX pairs. Liquid crypto
• Timeframes. One minute to daily
• Default demo used in the publication. QQQ on one hour
• Purpose. Provide a robust and portable way to detect when momentum and confirmation align, while dampening chop and preserving turns
• Limits. This is a strategy. Orders are simulated on standard candles only
Originality and usefulness
• Unique concept or fusion. The novelty sits in the gain map. Instead of gating separate indicators, the model mixes three drivers into the adaptive gains that power two one pole filters. Directional entropy measures how one sided recent movement has been. Kaufman style path efficiency scores how direct the path has been. A volatility squash stabilizes step size. The drivers are blended into the gains with visible inputs for strength, windows, and clamps.
• What failure mode it addresses. False starts in chop and whipsaw after fast spikes. Efficiency and the squash reduce over reaction in noise.
• Testability. Every component has an input. You can lengthen or shorten each window and change the normalization mode. The polarity plot and background provide a direct readout of state.
• Portable yardstick. The core is normalized with three options. Z score, percent rank mapped to a symmetric range, and MAD based Z score. Clamp bounds define the effective unit so context transfers across symbols.
Method overview in plain language
The strategy computes two smoothed tracks from the chart price source. The fast track and the slow track use gains that are not fixed. Each gain is modulated by three drivers. A driver for directional intensity, a driver for path efficiency, and a driver for volatility. The difference between the fast and the slow tracks forms the raw flux. A small phase assist reduces lag by subtracting a portion of the delayed value. The flux is then normalized. A guide line is an EMA of a small lead on the flux. When the flux and its guide are both above zero, the polarity is positive. When both are below zero, the polarity is negative. Polarity changes create the trade direction.
Base measures
• Return basis. The step is the change in the chosen price source. Its absolute value feeds the volatility estimate. Mean absolute step over the window gives a stable scale.
• Efficiency basis. The ratio of net move to the sum of absolute step over the window gives a value between zero and one. High values mean trend quality. Low values mean chop.
• Intensity basis. The fraction of up moves over the window plugs into binary entropy. Intensity is one minus entropy, which maps to zero in uncertainty and one in very one sided moves.
Components
• Directional Intensity. Measures how one sided recent bars have been. Smoothed with RMA. More intensity increases the gain and makes the fast and slow tracks react sooner.
• Path Efficiency. Measures the straightness of the price path. A gamma input shapes the curve so you can make trend quality count more or less. Higher efficiency lifts the gain in clean trends.
• Volatility Squash. Normalizes the absolute step with Z score then pushes it through an arctangent squash. This caps the effect of spikes so they do not dominate the response.
• Normalizer. Three modes. Z score for familiar units, percent rank for a robust monotone map to a symmetric range, and MAD based Z for outlier resistance.
• Guide Line. EMA of the flux with a small lead term that counteracts lag without heavy overshoot.
Fusion rule
• Weighted sum of the three drivers with fixed weights visible in the code comments. Intensity has fifty percent weight. Efficiency thirty percent. Volatility twenty percent.
• The blend power input scales the driver mix. Zero means fixed spans. One means full driver control.
• Minimum and maximum gain clamps bound the adaptive gain. This protects stability in quiet or violent regimes.
Signal rule
• Long suggestion appears when flux and guide are both above zero. That sets polarity to plus one.
• Short suggestion appears when flux and guide are both below zero. That sets polarity to minus one.
• When polarity flips from plus to minus, the strategy closes any long and enters a short.
• When flux crosses above the guide, the strategy closes any short.
What you will see on the chart
• White polarity plot around the zero line
• A dotted reference line at zero named Zen
• Green background tint for positive polarity and red background tint for negative polarity
• Strategy long and short markers placed by the TradingView engine at entry and at close conditions
• No table in this version to keep the visual clean and portable
Inputs with guidance
Setup
• Price source. Default ohlc4. Stable for noisy symbols.
• Fast span. Typical range 6 to 24. Raising it slows the fast track and can reduce churn. Lowering it makes entries more reactive.
• Slow span. Typical range 20 to 60. Raising it lengthens the baseline horizon. Lowering it brings the slow track closer to price.
Logic
• Guide span. Typical range 4 to 12. A small guide smooths without eating turns.
• Blend power. Typical range 0.25 to 0.85. Raising it lets the drivers modulate gains more. Lowering it pushes behavior toward fixed EMA style smoothing.
• Vol window. Typical range 20 to 80. Larger values calm the volatility driver. Smaller values adapt faster in intraday work.
• Efficiency window. Typical range 10 to 60. Larger values focus on smoother trends. Smaller values react faster but accept more noise.
• Efficiency gamma. Typical range 0.8 to 2.0. Above one increases contrast between clean trends and chop. Below one flattens the curve.
• Min alpha multiplier. Typical range 0.30 to 0.80. Lower values increase smoothing when the mix is weak.
• Max alpha multiplier. Typical range 1.2 to 3.0. Higher values shorten smoothing when the mix is strong.
• Normalization window. Typical range 100 to 300. Larger values reduce drift in the baseline.
• Normalization mode. Z score, percent rank, or MAD Z. Use MAD Z for outlier heavy symbols.
• Clamp level. Typical range 2.0 to 4.0. Lower clamps reduce the influence of extreme runs.
Filters
• Efficiency filter is implicit in the gain map. Raising efficiency gamma and the efficiency window increases the preference for clean trends.
• Micro versus macro relation is handled by the fast and slow spans. Increase separation for swing, reduce for scalping.
• Location filter is not included in v1.0. If you need distance gates from a reference such as VWAP or a moving mean, add them before publication of a new version.
Alerts
• This version does not include alertcondition lines to keep the core minimal. If you prefer alerts, add names Long Polarity Up, Short Polarity Down, Exit Short on Flux Cross Up in a later version and select on bar close for conservative workflows.
Strategy has been currently adapted for the QQQ asset with 30/60min timeframe.
For other assets may require new optimization
Properties visible in this publication
• Initial capital 25000
• Base currency Default
• Default order size method percent of equity with value 5
• Pyramiding 1
• Commission 0.05 percent
• Slippage 10 ticks
• Process orders on close ON
• Bar magnifier ON
• Recalculate after order is filled OFF
• Calc on every tick OFF
Honest limitations and failure modes
• Past results do not guarantee future outcomes
• Economic releases, circuit breakers, and thin books can break the assumptions behind intensity and efficiency
• Gap heavy symbols may benefit from the MAD Z normalization
• Very quiet regimes can reduce signal contrast. Use longer windows or higher guide span to stabilize context
• Session time is the exchange time of the chart
• If both stop and target can be hit in one bar, tie handling would matter. This strategy has no fixed stops or targets. It uses polarity flips for exits. If you add stops later, declare the preference
Open source reuse and credits
• None beyond public domain building blocks and Pine built ins such as EMA, SMA, standard deviation, RMA, and percent rank
• Method and fusion are original in construction and disclosure
Legal
Education and research only. Not investment advice. You are responsible for your decisions. Test on historical data and in simulation before any live use. Use realistic costs.
Strategy add on block
Strategy notice
Orders are simulated by the TradingView engine on standard candles. No request.security() calls are used.
Entries and exits
• Entry logic. Enter long when both the normalized flux and its guide line are above zero. Enter short when both are below zero
• Exit logic. When polarity flips from plus to minus, close any long and open a short. When the flux crosses above the guide line, close any short
• Risk model. No initial stop or target in v1.0. The model is a regime flipper. You can add a stop or trail in later versions if needed
• Tie handling. Not applicable in this version because there are no fixed stops or targets
Position sizing
• Percent of equity in the Properties panel. Five percent is the default for examples. Risk per trade should not exceed five to ten percent of equity. One to two percent is a common choice
Properties used on the published chart
• Initial capital 25000
• Base currency Default
• Default order size percent of equity with value 5
• Pyramiding 1
• Commission 0.05 percent
• Slippage 10 ticks
• Process orders on close ON
• Bar magnifier ON
• Recalculate after order is filled OFF
• Calc on every tick OFF
Dataset and sample size
• Test window Jan 2, 2014 to Oct 16, 2025 on QQQ one hour
• Trade count in sample 324 on the example chart
Release notes template for future updates
Version 1.1.
• Add alertcondition lines for long, short, and exit short
• Add optional table with component readouts
• Add optional stop model with a distance unit expressed as ATR or a percent of price
Notes. Backward compatibility Yes. Inputs migrated Yes.
Multi-Timeframe Trend Table - EMA Based Trend Analysis📊 Stay Aligned with Higher Timeframe Trends While Scalping
This powerful indicator displays real-time trend direction for 1-hour and 4-hour timeframes in a clean, easy-to-read table format. Perfect for traders who want to align their short-term trades with higher timeframe momentum.
🎯 Key Features
Multi-Timeframe Analysis: Monitor 1H and 4H trends while trading on any timeframe (3min, 5min, 15min, etc.)
EMA-Based Logic: Uses proven EMA 50 and EMA 100 crossover methodology
Visual Clarity: Color-coded table with green (uptrend) and red (downtrend) indicators
Customizable Display: Toggle EMA values and adjust table position
Real-Time Updates: Automatically refreshes with each bar close
Lightweight: Minimal resource usage with efficient data requests
📈 How It Works
The indicator determines trend direction using a simple but effective rule:
UPTREND: Price is above both EMA 50 AND EMA 100
DOWNTREND: Price is below either EMA 50 OR EMA 100
🔧 Settings
Show EMA Values: Display actual EMA 50/100 values in the table
Table Position: Choose from 4 corner positions (Top Right, Top Left, Bottom Right, Bottom Left)
Plot Current EMAs: Optional display of EMA lines on your current chart
💡 Trading Applications
✅ Trend Confirmation: Ensure your trades align with higher timeframe direction
✅ Risk Management: Avoid counter-trend trades in strong directional markets
✅ Entry Timing: Use lower timeframe for entries while respecting higher timeframe bias
✅ Scalping Enhancement: Perfect for 1-5 minute scalping with higher timeframe context
🎨 Visual Design
Clean, professional table design
Intuitive color coding (Green = Up, Red = Down)
Compact size that doesn't obstruct your chart
Clear typography for quick reading
📋 Perfect For
Day traders and scalpers
Swing traders seeking trend confirmation
Multi-timeframe analysis enthusiasts
Traders who want simple, effective trend identification
🚀 Easy Setup
Add to any chart (works on all timeframes)
Customize table position and settings
Start trading with higher timeframe awareness
Watch the table update automatically
No complex configurations needed - just add and trade!
This indicator is designed for educational and informational purposes. Always combine with proper risk management and your own analysis.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)An indicator with increased convenience and customization options. Effective for scalping.
