Fake StrategyTHIS IS A FAKE STRATEGY. PLEASE DO NOT USE THIS FOR TRADING.
Just publishing this to display how easily you can fake backtest results in the strategies. However, there are ways to identify the scams. Let's discuss about major red herrings in a strategy. How to identify them and stay away from them.
Any strategy which proclaims significantly high win rate (such as this) are not practical and can only be achieved via following means
Significantly high risk compared to reward
Trades are set in such a way that profits are taken in small movement whereas stops are significantly farther. By doing this, win rate will surely increase. But, will be picking pennies by risking plenty of capital. General trait of such strategies can be identified by comparing average trade and max drawdown . These kind of strategies will have significantly higher drawdown even though the number of losses are less. For example, 1 losing trade leading to drawdown of 10+% whereas every winning only contributes 0.25%.
We can also see this kind of behaviour in option selling strategies such as 0 and 1 DTE option selling strategies. Here too probability of winning can be pretty high (north of 90%). But, on every winning, you make 1-2% of your capital however on remaining trades, you will lose your complete capital - which leads to overall losing position.
Inducing repainting through code
This strategy is an excellent example of how repainting can be induced via code using request.securities method. There are plenty of ways a strategy or code can be made to repaint. Tradingview user manual has lots of information about repainting. Feel free to read through if you have extra time. If you look at this code, it is very simple to induce repainting in a strategy to make it look like an infinite money printing machine.
High Leverage and lack of usage of margin
Using leverage in pine can show false results. This is because, the strategy engine will not stop when equity goes below 0% until the trade is closed. But, that does not happen in real life. This is the reason why using leverage along with high risk and low reward trades can show false results overall making it look like the strategy is unbeatable. But, when you try to use that in real time, it is likely that account will be blown out.
To understand leverage conditions, please have a look at the strategy property fields - Order Size, Pyramiding, Commission, Slippage, Margin Long/Short.
Curve fitting
If the author claims that strategy will only work on particular set of instrument and particular timeframe, then the strategy is not real. It is curve fitting. Knowingly/Unknowingly author has moulded his strategy to fit what has happened in the past. This is general issue even non malicious author go through. It is very much essential to test the strategy across various set of instruments and timeframes to understand the real capability. Use back-testing as test cases. More test cases you have, more bug free your strategy will be. There are many methods to understand curve fitting and perform better testing of the strategy in hand which can be studied and implemented by authors.
Significantly short trades - a sign of lack of strategy
A strategy built using pine in general work on close of candle. So, all the calculations generally happen upon close of the candle. You can force intra-bar calculations using bar magnifier. But, that is not equivalent to tick data. Due to this reason, I consider any trade happening within a bar (Meaning open and close within the same bar) as not reliable. This is because, it is not possible for strategy back-tester to know whether entry condition is satisfied first or exit in a completely foolproof way. Bar magnifier can help reduce this issue - but will not eradicate this problem completely. If there are lots of trades in a strategy - which are closing within the same bar, this is very likely that the strategy backtest results are not reliable.
Hope this helps at least some people to understand the scams and stay away from it.
ค้นหาในสคริปต์สำหรับ "curve"
Multi TF Trend Indicator
...Mark Douglas in his book Trading in the Zone wrote
The longer the time frame, the more significant the trend, so a trending market on a daily bar chart is more significant than a trending market on a 30-minute bar chart. Therefore, the trend on the daily bar chart would take precedence over the trend on the 30-minute bar chart and would be considered the major trend. To determine the direction of the major trend, look at what is happening on a daily bar chart. If the trend is up on the daily, you are only going to look for a sell-off or retracement down to what your edge defines as support on the 30-minute chart. That's where you will become a buyer. On the other hand, if the trend is down on the daily, you are only going to look for a rally up to what your edge defines as a resistance level to be a seller on the 30-minute chart. Your objective is to determine, in a downtrending market, how far it can rally on an intraday basis and still not violate the symmetry of the longer trend. In an up-trending market, your objective is to determine how far it can sell off on an intraday basis without violating the symmetry of the longer trend. There's usually very little risk associated with these intraday support and resistance points, because you don't have to let the market go very far beyond them to tell you the trade isn't working.
The purpose of this indicator to show both the major and minor trend on the same chart with no need to switch between timeframes
Script includes
timeframe to determine the major trend
price curve, close price is default, but you can pick MA you want
type of coloring, either curve color or the background color
Implementation details
major trend is determined by the slope of the price curve
Further improvements
a variation of techniques for determining the major trend (crossing MA, pivot points etc.)
major trend change alerts
Thanks @loxx for pullData helper function
Many Moving AveragesA smooth looking indicator created from a mix of ALMA and LRC curves. Includes alternative calculation for both which I came up with through trial and error so a variety of combinations work to varying degrees. Just something I was playing around with that looked pretty nice in the end.
One-Sided Gaussian Filter w/ Channels [Loxx]One-Sided Gaussian Filter w/ Channels is a Gaussian Moving Average that is calculated using a Fibonacci weighting function. Keltner channels have been added to show zones of exhaustion. A better name would be "Half Gaussian bell weighted" or "Half normal distribution weighted" indicator, since the weights for calculation of the average (similar to linear weighted average) are taken from a normal distribution curve like function--but only the half of the curve is used for calculation.
Information of the Gaussian distribution can be found here : en.wikipedia.org and once you take a look at the standard normal distribution curve, it will be much clearer what is exactly done in this indicator.
After the Gaussian Filter is applied to the source input, an Ehlers' 2-Pole Super Smoother is applied to reduce noise without significant lag.
Included:
Bar coloring
Signals
Alerts
Loxx's Expanded Source Types
Bitcoin Power Law Bands (BTC Power Law) Indicator█ OVERVIEW
The 'Bitcoin Power Law Bands' indicator is a set of three US dollar price trendlines and two price bands for bitcoin , indicating overall long-term trend, support and resistance levels as well as oversold and overbought conditions. The magnitude and growth of the middle (Center) line is determined by double logarithmic (log-log) regression on the entire USD price history of bitcoin . The upper (Resistance) and lower (Support) lines follow the same trajectory but multiplied by respective (fixed) factors. These two lines indicate levels where the price of bitcoin is expected to meet strong long-term resistance or receive strong long-term support. The two bands between the three lines are price levels where bitcoin may be considered overbought or oversold.
All parameters and visuals may be customized by the user as needed.
█ CONCEPTS
Long-term models
Long-term price models have many challenges, the most significant of which is getting the growth curve right overall. No one can predict how a certain market, asset class, or financial instrument will unfold over several decades. In the case of bitcoin , price history is very limited and extremely volatile, and this further complicates the situation. Fortunately for us, a few smart people already had some bright ideas that seem to have stood the test of time.
Power law
The so-called power law is the only long-term bitcoin price model that has a chance of survival for the years ahead. The idea behind the power law is very simple: over time, the rapid (exponential) initial growth cannot possibly be sustained (see The seduction of the exponential curve for a fun take on this). Year-on-year returns, therefore, must decrease over time, which leads us to the concept of diminishing returns and the power law. In this context, the power law translates to linear growth on a chart with both its axes scaled logarithmically. This is called the log-log chart (as opposed to the semilog chart you see above, on which only one of the axes - price - is logarithmic).
Log-log regression
When both price and time are scaled logarithmically, the power law leads to a linear relationship between them. This in turn allows us to apply linear regression techniques, which will find the best-fitting straight line to the data points in question. The result of performing this log-log regression (i.e. linear regression on a log-log scaled dataset) is two parameters: slope (m) and intercept (b). These parameters fully describe the relationship between price and time as follows: log(P) = m * log(T) + b, where P is price and T is time. Price is measured in US dollars , and Time is counted as the number of days elapsed since bitcoin 's genesis block.
DPC model
The final piece of our puzzle is the Dynamic Power Cycle (DPC) price model of bitcoin . DPC is a long-term cyclic model that uses the power law as its foundation, to which a periodic component stemming from the block subsidy halving cycle is applied dynamically. The regression parameters of this model are re-calculated daily to ensure longevity. For the 'Bitcoin Power Law Bands' indicator, the slope and intercept parameters were calculated on publication date (March 6, 2022). The slope of the Resistance Line is the same as that of the Center Line; its intercept was determined by fitting the line onto the Nov 2021 cycle peak. The slope of the Support Line is the same as that of the Center Line; its intercept was determined by fitting the line onto the Dec 2018 trough of the previous cycle. Please see the Limitations section below on the implications of a static model.
█ FEATURES
Inputs
• Parameters
• Center Intercept (b) and Slope (m): These log-log regression parameters control the behavior of the grey line in the middle
• Resistance Intercept (b) and Slope (m): These log-log regression parameters control the behavior of the red line at the top
• Support Intercept (b) and Slope (m): These log-log regression parameters control the behavior of the green line at the bottom
• Controls
• Plot Line Fill: N/A
• Plot Opportunity Label: Controls the display of current price level relative to the Center, Resistance and Support Lines
Style
• Visuals
• Center: Control, color, opacity, thickness, price line control and line style of the Center Line
• Resistance: Control, color, opacity, thickness, price line control and line style of the Resistance Line
• Support: Control, color, opacity, thickness, price line control and line style of the Support Line
• Plots Background: Control, color and opacity of the Upper Band
• Plots Background: Control, color and opacity of the Lower Band
• Labels: N/A
• Output
• Labels on price scale: Controls the display of current Center, Resistance and Support Line values on the price scale
• Values in status line: Controls the display of current Center, Resistance and Support Line values in the indicator's status line
█ HOW TO USE
The indicator includes three price lines:
• The grey Center Line in the middle shows the overall long-term bitcoin USD price trend
• The red Resistance Line at the top is an indication of where the bitcoin USD price is expected to meet strong long-term resistance
• The green Support Line at the bottom is an indication of where the bitcoin USD price is expected to receive strong long-term support
These lines envelope two price bands:
• The red Upper Band between the Center and Resistance Lines is an area where bitcoin is considered overbought (i.e. too expensive)
• The green Lower Band between the Support and Center Lines is an area where bitcoin is considered oversold (i.e. too cheap)
The power law model assumes that the price of bitcoin will fluctuate around the Center Line, by meeting resistance at the Resistance Line and finding support at the Support Line. When the current price is well below the Center Line (i.e. well into the green Lower Band), bitcoin is considered too cheap (oversold). When the current price is well above the Center Line (i.e. well into the red Upper Band), bitcoin is considered too expensive (overbought). This idea alone is not sufficient for profitable trading, but, when combined with other factors, it could guide the user's decision-making process in the right direction.
█ LIMITATIONS
The indicator is based on a static model, and for this reason it will gradually lose its usefulness. The Center Line is the most durable of the three lines since the long-term growth trend of bitcoin seems to deviate little from the power law. However, how far price extends above and below this line will change with every halving cycle (as can be seen for past cycles). Periodic updates will be needed to keep the indicator relevant. The user is invited to adjust the slope and intercept parameters manually between two updates of the indicator.
█ RAMBLINGS
The 'Bitcoin Power Law Bands' indicator is a useful tool for users wishing to place bitcoin in a macro context. As described above, the price level relative to the three lines is a rough indication of whether bitcoin is over- or undervalued. Users wishing to gain more insight into bitcoin price trends may follow the author's periodic updates of the DPC model (contact information below).
█ NOTES
The author regularly posts on Twitter using the @DeFi_initiate handle.
█ THANKS
Many thanks to the following individuals, who - one way or another - made the 'Bitcoin Power Law Bands' indicator possible:
• TradingView user 'capriole_charles', whose open-source 'Bitcoin Power Law Corridor' script was the basis for this indicator
• Harold Christopher Burger, whose Bitcoin’s natural long-term power-law corridor of growth article (2019) was the basis for the 'Bitcoin Power Law Corridor' script
• Bitcoin Forum user "Trololo", who posted the original power law model at Logarithmic (non-linear) regression - Bitcoin estimated value (2014)
Grid Bot AutoThis script is an auto-adjusting grid bot simulator. This is an improved version of the original Grid Bot Simulator. The grid bot is best used for ranging/choppy markets. Prices are divided into grids, or trade zones, that will trigger signals each time a new zone is entered. During ranging markets, each transaction is followed by a “take profit.” As the market starts to trend, transactions are stacked (compare to DCA ), until the market consolidates. No signals are triggered above the Upper Limit or Below the Lower Limit. Unlike the previous version, the upper and lower limits are calculated automatically. Grid levels are determined by four factors: Smoothing, Laziness, Elasticity, and Grid Intervals.
Smoothing:
A moving average (or linear regression) is applied to each close price as a basis. Options for smoothing are Linear Regression, Simple Moving Average, Exponential Moving Average, Volume-Weighted Moving Average, Triple-Exponential Moving Average.
Laziness:
Laziness is the percentage change required to reach the next level. If laziness is 1.5, the price must move up or down by 1.5% before the grid will change. This concept is based on Alex Grover’s Efficient Trend Step. This allows the grids to be based on even price levels, as opposed to jagged moving averages.
Elasticity:
Elasticity is the degree of “stickiness” to the current price trend. If the smoothing line remains above (or below) the current grid center without reverting but still not enough to reach the next grid level, the grid line will start to curve toward the next grid level. Elasticity is added to (or subtracted from) the gridline by a factor of minimum system ticks for the current pair. Elasticity of zero will keep the gridlines horizontal. If elasticity is too high, the grid will distort.
Grid Intervals:
Grid intervals are the percentage of space between each grid.
Laziness = 4%, Elasticity = 0. Price must move at least 4% before reaching the next level. With zero elasticity, gridlines are straight.
Laziness = 5%, Elasticity = 100. For each bar at a new grid level, the grid will start “curve” toward the next price level (up if price is greater than the middle grid, down if less than middle grid). Elasticity is calculated by the user-inputted “Elasticity” multiplied by the minimum tick for the current pair (ELSTX = syminfo.mintick * iELSTX)
Try experimenting with different combinations of the Smoothing Length, Smoothing Type, Laziness, Elasticity, and Grid Intervals to find the optimum settings for each chart. Lower-priced pairs (e.g. XRP/ADA/DODGE) will require lower Elasticity. Also note that different exchanges may have different minimum tick values. For example, minimum tick for BITMEX:XBTUSD and BYBIT:BTCUSD is .5, but BINANCE:BTCUSDT and COINBASE:BTCUSD is .01.
s3.tradingview.com
DODGEUSDT, 5min. Laziness: 4%, Elasticity 2.5
Number of Grids: 2. Laziness: 3.75%. Elasticity: 150. Grid Interval 2%.
Settings Overview
Smoothing Length : Smoothing period
Smoothing Type : Linear Regression, Simple Moving Average, Exponential Moving Average, Volume-Weighted Moving Average, Triple-Exponential Moving Average
Laziness : Percentage required for price to move until it reaches the next level. If price does not reach the next level (up or down), the grid will remain the same as previous grid (because it’s lazy).
Elasticity : Amount of curvature toward the next grid, based on the current price trend. As elasticity increases, gridlines will curve up or down by a factor of the number of ticks since the last grid change.
Grid Interval : Percent between grid levels.
Number of Grids : Number of grids to show.
Cooldown : Number of bars to wait to prevent consecutive signals.
Grid Line Transparency : Lower transparencies brighten the gridlines; higher transparencies dim the gridlines. To hide the gridlines completely, enter 100.
Fill Transparency: Lower transparencies brighten the fill box; higher transparencies dim the fill box. To hide the fill box completely, enter 100.
Signal Size : Make signal triangles large or small.
Reset Buy/Sell Index When Grids Change : When a new grid is formed, resetting the index may prevent false signals (experimental)
Use Highs/Lows for Signals : If enabled, signals are triggered as soon as the price touches the next zone. If disabled, signals are triggered after bar closes. Enable this for “Once Per Bar alerts. Disable for “Once Per Bar Close” alerts.
Show Min Tick : If checked, syminfo.mintick is displayed in upper-righthand corner. Useful for estimating Laziness.
Reverse Fill Colors : Default fill for fill boxes is green after buy and red after sell. Check this box to reverse.
Note: The Grid Bot Simulator scripts are experimental and works in progress. Please feel free to comment or contact me if you have suggestions/complaints.
Raff Regression Channel by DGTRᴀꜰꜰ Rᴇɢʀᴇꜱꜱɪᴏɴ Cʜᴀɴɴᴇʟ (RRC)
This study aims to automate Raff Regression Channel drawing either based on ZigZag Indicator or optionally User Preference
The Raff Regression Channel , developed by Gilbert Raff, is based on a linear regression, which is the least-squares line-of-best-fit for a price series, with evenly spaced trend lines above and below . The width of the channel is set by determining the high or low that is the furthest from the linear regression.
Because the channel distance is based off the largest pullback or highest peak within a trend, for effectively drawing and using a Raff Regression Channel it is recommend/required that a Raff Regression Channel is applied to “mature” trends. Knowing this requirement, for better automated drawing results this study benefits from the Zig Zag Indicator, where the Zig Zag indicator is used to help identify price trends and changes in price trends. Option to manually adjust lengths for drawing a Raff Regression Channel is also made available.
Using a Raff Regression Channel
Once The Raff Regression Channel is drawn, covering an existing trend, Exᴛᴇɴꜱɪᴏɴ Lɪɴᴇꜱ are drawn to identify ᴛʜᴇ ꜱᴜᴘᴘᴏʀᴛ﹐ʀᴇꜱɪꜱᴛᴀɴᴄᴇ ᴏʀ ʀᴇᴠᴇʀꜱᴀʟ ᴘᴏɪɴᴛꜱ
The trend is up as long as prices rise within this channel. An uptrend may be reversing (not always, but likely) when price breaks below the channel extension . The trend is down as long as prices decline within the channel. Similarly, a downtrend may be reversing (not always, but likely) when price breaks above the channel extension . Moves outside the channel extensions can be indication of a reversal or can denote overbought or oversold conditions
For further details please refer to education post Raff Regression Channel
█ FEATURES
- AUTO or MANUALLY adjusted Raff Regression Channel and Channel Extentions drawing
- ALERTs, for Linear Regression Line, Raff Regression Upper and Lower Channel Extentions
- LSMA , Least Squares Moving Average, in other words Linear Regression Curve
█ SETTINGS
Setting Loopback and Number of Bars are the most important part for The Raff Regression Channel, where ;
- Lookback, defines where the Raff Regression Channel is starting, it is recommended to set to a trend begining
- Number of Bars, defines how many bars to be assumed for calculation, or simply stated the end of the Raff Regression Channel drawing (not extentions but the main channel, extentions by default will be drawn till the last bar)
Setting of Loopback and Number of Bars is performed eigher automatically based on Zig Zag indicator or users may prefer to set them manually. If selected automatically then
- Deviation and Depth values of Zig Zag indicator are used for calculations (enabling visually plotting of ZigZag Lines will help to identify better visually the points), where ;
Deviation, is a multiplier that affects how much the price should deviate from the previous pivot in order for the bar to become a new pivot.
Depth, affects the minimum number of bars that will be taken into account when building
Short-term traders may wish to apply the channel to small waves of a trend so they can reduce the value of the Deviation and Depth
█ OTHER CHANNEL CONSEPTS
Linear Regression Channels, , what linear regression channels are? and linear regression channel/curve/slope study
Fibonacci Channels, how to apply fibonacci channels and automated fibonacci channels study
Andrews’ Pitchfork, how to apply pitchfork and automated pitchfork study
Special Thanks to @Kiss66000 for his kind suggestion, je vous remercie beaucoup @Kiss66000
Disclaimer :
Trading success is all about following your trading strategy and the indicators should fit within your trading strategy, and not to be traded upon solely
The script is for informational and educational purposes only. Use of the script does not constitute professional and/or financial advice. You alone have the sole responsibility of evaluating the script output and risks associated with the use of the script. In exchange for using the script, you agree not to hold dgtrd TradingView user liable for any possible claim for damages arising from any decision you make based on use of the script
Excellent ADXThe Average Directional movement indeX (ADX) is an indicator that helps you determine the trend direction, pivot points, and much more else! But it looks not so easy as other famous indicators. It seems strange or even terrible, but don't be afraid. Let's understand how it works and get its power into your analysis tactics.
In the beginning, imagine a drunk man goes through a ladder: step by step. Up, up, down, up, down, down, up...
How can we understand which direction he goes? Exactly! We can count the number of steps in each direction. In the above example, in the upward – 4, in the downward – 3. So, it looks like he goes in an upward direction.
The ADX indicator counts the same steps, but for price. The size of each step equals 1 ATR for "DI Length" candles. On the indicator chart, we have the green and red lines. The green line represents a number of steps upward. The red line shows one downward. When the red line upper green, then the price goes below, then the trend is directed down. Later the green line comes above the red one, and then the trend changes the direction to upward. Wow? After that, you can easy detect the trend direction on the market!
But it is still not the end. On the chart, we also have the fat blue line. This is the ADX line, and it represents the power of the trend. It is calculated from a distance between the green and red curves. The ADX line value grows if the distance is increased. If the movement is really powerful, then a number of steps into a direction much more prominent than one in an opposed direction. Then the blue line grows faster. But if the growth has stopped and the blue line turns back or already had changed self-direction, then it is a signal that the trend has ended too. It's an excellent sign to close the position (but not always). Easy? Not quite. Thresholds help you there. The indicator has two additional parameters: upper and lower thresholds to evaluate the trend-over signal strength. An u-turn of the ADX line above the upper threshold sends a strong signal. If one occurs between both thresholds, it is a bit weak signal. But if the blue line goes below the lower threshold, it looks like there is no trend, and the price goes side. We can also say that the price goes side when the ADX value gradually falls down.
The Excellent ADX indicator helps you catch pivot/pullback signals based on green, red, and blue lines. Each such signal is highlighted as a green (buy) or red (sell) dot on the plot. The size of the dot represents the strength of the signal. You can also check the position of green and red lines from each other to determine the trend direction and the place where it has been changed. The Excellent ADX indicator helps you there too. It highlights the trend direction by the background-color, so you'll never miss it! The Excellent ADX good compliance with the Price Channel indicator built for the same length. You can use them together to be on a trend wave always!
MACD ProMoving average convergence divergence pro.
Original MACD with new features, Including...
1. Three different modes.
Basic, Logarithmic, Percent (calculates difference of oscillator MAs in percent)
2. Additional moving averages for oscillator, signal and even histogram.
EMA, WMA (linearly weighted), LMA (logarithmically weighted), SMA
Volume Weighted RMA (I've been suggested to make a MACD with the VWEMA that I published recently but that was too fast, this almost 2 times slower because of using RMA instead of EMA)
VWRMA(s) (an alternative for VWRMA which uses candle formation to simulate the volume, can be useful when volume is not provided for the symbol or it is not proper)
And DEMA (Double Exponential MA)
3. Signal Displacement.
If you want to add some delay to signal, could help for extra confirmation of center crosses and removal of some falss ones.
4. Histogram Smoother.
For those who like the smooth curves. Can deliver a cleaner histogram even in volatile markets.
5. Bar color for more fun.
Basic BIASBasic BIAS
Deviation rate (bias), also known as deviation rate, or y-value for short, is an indicator to reflect the deviation degree between the price and MA in a certain period of time by calculating the percentage difference between the market index or closing price and a moving average, so as to obtain the possibility that the price will reverse or rebound due to deviation from moving average trend in case of severe fluctuation, and that the price will move within the normal fluctuation range Form the credibility of continuing the original potential.
The deviation rate is a percentage of the deviation degree (gap rate) between the price and ma.
The departure rate curve (bias) is a curve that connects the values of each bias into a line and obtains a wave extension curve with the value of 0 as the horizontal axis.
Quadratic Least Squares Moving Average - Smoothing + Forecast Introduction
Technical analysis make often uses of classical statistical procedures, one of them being regression analysis, and since fitting polynomial functions that minimize the sum of squares can be achieved with the use of the mean, variance, covariance...etc, technical analyst only needed to replace the mean in all those calculations with a moving average, we then end up with a low lag filter called least squares moving average (lsma) .
The least squares moving average could be classified as a rolling linear regression, altho this sound really bad it is useful to understand the relationship of both methods, both have the same form, that is ax + b , where a and b are coefficients of the model. However in a simple linear regression a and b are constant, while the lsma use variables instead.
In a simple lsma we model the relationship of the closing price (dependent variable) with a linear sequence (independent variable), therefore x = 1,2,3,4..etc. However we can use polynomial of higher degrees to model such relationship, this is required if we want more reactivity. Therefore we can use a quadratic form, that is ax^2 + bx + c , where a,b and c are variables.
This is the quadratic least squares moving average (qlsma), a not so official term, but we'll stick with it because it still represent the aim of the filter quite well. In this indicator i make the calculations of the qlsma less troublesome, therefore one might understand how it would work, note that in general the coefficients of a polynomial regression model are found using matrix calculus.
The Indicator
A qlsma, unlike the classic lsma, will fit better to the price and will be more reactive, this is the advantage of using an higher degrees for its calculation, we can model more complex relationship.
lsma in green, qlsma in red, with both length = 200
However the over/under shoots are greater, i'll explain why in the next sections, but this is one of the drawbacks of using higher degrees.
The indicator allow to forecast future values, the ahead period of the forecast is determined by the forecast setting. The value for this setting should be lower than length, else the forecasts can easily over/under shoot which heavily damage the forecast. In order to get a view on how well the forecast is performing you can check the option "Show past predicted values".
Of course understanding the logic behind the forecast is important, in short regressions models best fit a certain curve to the data, this curve can be a line (linear regression), a parabola (quadratic regression) and so on, the type of curve is determined by the degree of the polynomial used, here 2, which is a parabola. Lets use a linear regression model as example :
ax + b where x is a linear sequence 1,2,3...and a/b are constants. Our goal is to find the values for a and b that minimize the sum of squares of the line with the dependent variable y, here the closing price, so our hypothesis is that :
closing price = ax + b + ε
where ε is white noise, a component that the model couldn't forecast. The forecast of the closing price 14 step ahead would be equal to :
closing price 14 step aheads = a(x+14) + b
Since x is a linear sequence we only need to sum it with the forecasting horizon period, the same is done here with :
a*(n+forecast)^2 + b*(n + forecast) + c
Note that the forecast proposed in the indicator is more for teaching purpose that anything else, this indicator can't possibly forecast future values, even on a meh rate.
Low lag filters have been used to provide noise free crosses with slow moving average, a bad practice in my opinion due to the ability low lag filters have to overshoot/undershoot, more interesting use cases might be to use the qlsma as input for other indicators.
On The Code
Some of you might know that i posted a "quadratic regression" indicator long ago, the original calculations was coming from a forum, but because the calculation was ugly as hell as well as extra inefficient (dogfood level) i had to do something about it, the name was also terribly misleading.
We can see in the code that we make heavy use of the variance and covariance, both estimated with :
VAR(x) = SMA(x^2) - SMA(x)^2
COV(x,y) = SMA(xy) - SMA(x)SMA(y)
Those elements are then combined, we can easily recognize the intercept element c , who don't change much from the classical lsma.
As Digital Filter
The frequency response of the qlsma is similar to the one of the lsma, those filters amplify certain frequencies in the passband, and have ripples in the stop band. There is something interesting about those filters, first using higher degrees allow to greater boost of the frequencies in the passband, which result in greater over/under shoots. Another funny thing is that the peak/valley of the ripples is equal the peak or valley in the ripples of another lsma of different degree.
The transient response of those filters, that is impulse response, step response...etc is related to the degree of the polynomial used, therefore lets denote a lsma of degree p : lsma(p) , the impulse response of lsma(p) is a polynomial of degree p, and the step response is simple a polynomial of order p+1.
This is why it was more interesting to estimate the qlsma using convolution, however we can no longer forecast future values.
Conclusion
I proposed a more usable quadratic least squares moving average, with more options, as well as a cleaner and more efficient code. The process of shrinking the original code is made easier when you know about the estimations of both variance and covariance.
I hope the proposed indicator/calculation is useful.
Thx for reading !
MAX TRENDS Spark 0.3.1.1This is a solid modification of Waves with extra volatility curves.
Very sophisticated for the day trading and forex swing.
XBT Contango Calculator v1.1
This indicator measures value of basis (or spread) of current Futures contracts compared to spot. The default settings are specifically for Bitmex XBTU19 and XBTZ19 futures contracts. These will need to be updated after expiration. Also, it seems that Tradingview does not keep charts of expired contracts. If anyone knows how to import data from previous expired contracts, please let me know. This historical data could be valuable for evaluating previous XBT futures curves.
Also, VERY important to understand is this indicator only works with Spot Bitcoin charts (XBTUSD, BTCUSD, etc). If you add this to any other asset chart, it would not be useful (unless you changed settings to evaluate a different Futures product).
Contango and Backwardation are important fundamental indicators to keep track of while trading Futures markets. For a better explanation, Ugly Old Goat had done several medium articles on this. Please check out link below for his latest article on the subject...
uglyoldgoat.com
Notes on chart above should explain most of what you need to know on to use this indicator. The zero line is the spot price on the chart, so a positive value means Futures are trading at a premium (or in Contango). You can set a value of extreme Contango which will give an alert as red background (default setting is +$500). Green background will appear when Futures are trading at a discount to spot (Backwardation).
Hope some people get some use out of this. This is my first attempt at coding anything, so any feedback would be greatly appreciated!
BTC Donations: 3CypEdvBcvVHbqzHUt1FDiUG53U7pYWviV
Moving AverageDisplay of simple moving average and exponential mobile average depending on period.
Simple moving average are for D, W, and M period.
Minutes and Hours periods display exponential curves.
Multi SMA EMA WMA HMA BB (4x3 MAs Bollinger Bands) Pro MTF - RRBMulti SMA EMA WMA HMA 4x3 Moving Averages with Bollinger Bands Pro MTF by RagingRocketBull 2018
Version 1.0
This indicator shows multiple MAs of any type SMA EMA WMA HMA etc with BB and MTF support, can show MAs as dynamically moving levels.
There are 4 MA groups + 1 BB group. You can assign any type/timeframe combo to a group, for example:
- EMAs 50,100,200 x H1, H4, D1, W1 (4 TFs x 3 MAs x 1 type)
- EMAs 8,13,21,55,100,200 x M15, H1 (2 TFs x 6 MAs x 1 type)
- D1 EMAs and SMAs 12,26,50,100,200,400 (1 TF x 6 MAs x 2 types)
- H1 WMAs 7,77,231; H4 HMAs 50,100,200; D1 EMAs 144,169,233; W1 SMAs 50,100,200 (4 TFs x 3 MAs x 4 types)
- +1 extra MA type/timeframe for BB
compile time: 25-30 sec
full redraw time after parameter change in UI: 3 sec
There are several versions: Simple, MTF, Pro MTF, Advanced MTF and Ultimate MTF. This is the Pro MTF version. The Differences are listed below. All versions have BB
- Simple: you have 2 groups of MAs that can be assigned any type (5+5)
- MTF: +2 custom Timeframes for each group (2x5 MTF)
- Pro MTF: +4 custom Timeframes for each group (4x3 MTF), MA levels and show max bars back options
- Advanced MTF: +2 extra MAs/group (4x5 MTF), custom Ticker/Symbol, backreferences for type, TF and MA lengths in UI
- Ultimate MTF: +individual settings for each MA, custom Ticker/Symbols
Features:
- 4x3 = 12 MAs of any type including Hull Moving Average (HMA)
- 4x MTF groups with step line smoothing
- BB +1 extra TF/type for BB MAs
- 12 MA levels with adjustable group offsets, indents and shift
- show max bars back
- you can show/hide both groups of MAs/levels and individual MAs
Notes:
1. based on 3EmaBB, uses plot*, barssince and security functions
2. you can't set certain constants from input due to Pinescript limitations - change the code as needed, recompile and use as a private version
3. Levels = trackprice implementation
4. Show Max Bars Back = show_last implementation
5. uses timeframe textbox instead of input resolution to allow for 120 240 and other custom TFs. Also supports TFs in hours: 2H or H2
6. swma has a fixed length = 4, alma and linreg have additional offset and smoothing params
7. Smoothing is applied by default for visual aesthetics on MTF. To use exact ma mtf values (lines with stair stepping) - disable it
MTF Notes:
- uses simple timeframe textbox instead of input resolution dropdown to allow for 120, 240 and other custom TFs, also supports timeframes in H: 2H, H2
- Groups that are not assigned a Custom TF will use Current Timeframe (0).
- MTF will work for any MA type assigned to the group
- MTF works both ways: you can display a higher TF MA/BB on a lower TF or a lower TF MA/BB on a higher TF.
- MTF MA values are normally aligned at the boundary of their native timeframe. This produces stair stepping when a higher TF MA is viewed on a lower TF.
Therefore X Y Point Density/Smoothing is applied by default on MA MTF for visual aesthetics. Set both to 0 to disable and see exact ma mtf values (lines with stair stepping and original mtf alignment).
- Smoothing is disabled for BB MTF bands because fill doesn't work with smoothed MAs after duplicate values are replaced with na.
- MTF MA Value fluctuation is possible on the current bar due to default security lookahead
Smoothing:
- X,Y == 0 - X,Y smoothing disabled (stair stepping on high TFs)
- X == 0, Y > 0 - X,Y smoothing applied to all TFs
- Y == 0, X > 0 - X smoothing applied to all TFs < deltaX_max_tf, Y smoothing disabled
- X > 0, Y > 0 - Y smoothing applied to all TFs, then X smoothing applied to all TFs < deltaX_max_tf
X Smoothing with Y == 0 - shows only every deltaX-th point starting from the first bar.
X Smoothing with Y > 0 - shows only every deltaX-th point starting from the last shown Y point, essentially filling huge gaps remaining after Y Smoothing with points and preserving the curve's general shape
X Smoothing on high TFs with already scarce points produces weird curve shapes, it works best only on high density lower TFs
Y Smoothing reduces points on all TFs, removes adjacent points with prices within deltaY, while preserving the smaller curve details.
A combination of X,Y produces the most accurate smoothing. Higher delta value - larger range, more points removed.
Show Max Bars Back:
- can't set plot show_last from input -> implemented using a timenow based range check
- you can't delete/modify history once plotted, so essentially it just sets a start point for plotting (from num_bars bars back) that works only in realtime mode (not in replay)
Levels:
You can plot current MA value using plot trackprice=true or by checking Show Price Line in Style. Problem is:
- you can only change color (not the dashed line style, width), have both ma + price line (not just the line), and it's full screen wide
- you can't set plot trackprice from input => implemented using plotshape/plotchar with fixed text labels serving as levels
- there's no other way of creating a dynamic level: hline, plot, offset - nothing else works.
- you can't plot a text var - all text strings must be constants, so you can't change the style, width and text labels without recompiling.
- from input you can only adjust offset, indent and shift for each level group, and change color
- the dot below each level line is the exact MA value. If you want just the line swap plotshape with plotchar, recompile and save as your private version, adjust Y shift.
To speed up redraw times: reduce last_bars to ~2000, recompile and use as your own private version
Pinescript is a rudimentary language (should be called Painscript instead) that can basically only plot data. You can't do much else. Please see the code for tips and hints.
Certain things just can't be done or require shady workarounds and weeks of testing trying to resolve weird node.js compiler errors.
Feel free to learn from/reuse/change the code as needed and use as your own private version. See comments in code. Good Luck!
Tunable SWMADissected the standard SWMA function and added options for user to change just about every part of it. Weights ,Lookback ,Source can all be changed in the settings.
Green is the standard SWMA, Using the Input value selected.(MAs/LRC/VWAP)
Red is the tuned SWMA, with the option of applying a final Output filter (MAs/LRC/VWAP). Uses 8 datapoints instead of 4 for the default.
Customization can really help expand upon the standard SWMA I find. Enjoy tuning to your hearts content
Coin Jin Multi SMA+ BB+ SMA forecast Ver2.02This script provides a complete trend-analysis system based on the
5 / 20 / 60 / 112 / 224 / 448 / 896 SMAs.
It precisely detects bullish/bearish alignment and automatically identifies
12 advanced trend-shift signals (Start, End, and Reversal).
Key Features:
● 9 SMA lines (including custom X1 & X2)
Each SMA supports custom color, width, and style (Line/Step/Circles).
● Bollinger Bands with customizable options
Fully adjustable length, source, width, style, fill transparency, and more.
● SMA Forecast (curved projection)
– Slope computed via linear regression
– Predicts up to 30 future bars
– Forced dotted style ensures visibility at all zoom levels
● 12 Advanced Trend Signals (alertcondition)
Automatically detects:
Start of full alignment (with/without SMA 896)
End of alignment
Bull ↔ Bear transitions
Perfect for momentum trading, trend-following, reversal detection, or automated alert systems.
● Labeling last value of each SMA
Each SMA prints a label such as "5", “20”, “60”, “896”, or custom lengths at the latest bar.
이 스크립트는 5 / 20 / 60 / 112 / 224 / 448 / 896 이동평균선을 기반으로
정배열·역배열 상태를 정밀하게 분석하고,
총 12가지 고급 추세 신호(시작·종료·전환) 를 자동으로 감지하는 통합 추세 분석 도구입니다.
주요 기능:
● 9개의 SMA 표시 (커스텀 X1, X2 포함)
각 SMA는 색상·굵기·형태(Line/Step/Circle)를 개별 설정할 수 있습니다.
● 볼린저밴드 표시 및 채우기 옵션
BB 길이, 소스, 타입, 두께, 투명도 등을 자유롭게 조절 가능.
● SMA Forecast (미래 방향 곡선 예측)
– 기울기 기반 선형회귀 슬로프 계산
– 곡선 형태로 미래 30봉까지 예측
– 점선(Dotted) 강제 적용으로 어떤 배율에서도 선명하게 표시
● 12가지 고급 추세 신호(alertcondition)
정배열·역배열의
Start (처음 완성될 때)
End (깨질 때)
Switch (전환)
을 모두 자동 탐지하여 트레이딩뷰 알림으로 받을 수 있음.
● SMA 마지막 가격 라벨 표시
각 SMA 끝 지점에 “5 / 20 / 60 / ... / 896” 식으로 라벨 표시.
Volatility-Targeted Momentum Portfolio [BackQuant]Volatility-Targeted Momentum Portfolio
A complete momentum portfolio engine that ranks assets, targets a user-defined volatility, builds long, short, or delta-neutral books, and reports performance with metrics, attribution, Monte Carlo scenarios, allocation pie, and efficiency scatter plots. This description explains the theory and the mechanics so you can configure, validate, and deploy it with intent.
Table of contents
What the script does at a glance
Momentum, what it is, how to know if it is present
Volatility targeting, why and how it is done here
Portfolio construction modes: Long Only, Short Only, Delta Neutral
Regime filter and when the strategy goes to cash
Transaction cost modelling in this script
Backtest metrics and definitions
Performance attribution chart
Monte Carlo simulation
Scatter plot analysis modes
Asset allocation pie chart
Inputs, presets, and deployment checklist
Suggested workflow
1) What the script does at a glance
Pulls a list of up to 15 tickers, computes a simple momentum score on each over a configurable lookback, then volatility-scales their bar-to-bar return stream to a target annualized volatility.
Ranks assets by raw momentum, selects the top 3 and bottom 3, builds positions according to the chosen mode, and gates exposure with a fast regime filter.
Accumulates a portfolio equity curve with risk and performance metrics, optional benchmark buy-and-hold for comparison, and a full alert suite.
Adds visual diagnostics: performance attribution bars, Monte Carlo forward paths, an allocation pie, and scatter plots for risk-return and factor views.
2) Momentum: definition, detection, and validation
Momentum is the tendency of assets that have performed well to continue to perform well, and of underperformers to continue underperforming, over a specific horizon. You operationalize it by selecting a horizon, defining a signal, ranking assets, and trading the leaders versus laggards subject to risk constraints.
Signal choices . Common signals include cumulative return over a lookback window, regression slope on log-price, or normalized rate-of-change. This script uses cumulative return over lookback bars for ranking (variable cr = price/price - 1). It keeps the ranking simple and lets volatility targeting handle risk normalization.
How to know momentum is present .
Leaders and laggards persist across adjacent windows rather than flipping every bar.
Spread between average momentum of leaders and laggards is materially positive in sample.
Cross-sectional dispersion is non-trivial. If everything is flat or highly correlated with no separation, momentum selection will be weak.
Your validation should include a diagnostic that measures whether returns are explained by a momentum regression on the timeseries.
Recommended diagnostic tool . Before running any momentum portfolio, verify that a timeseries exhibits stable directional drift. Use this indicator as a pre-check: It fits a regression to price, exposes slope and goodness-of-fit style context, and helps confirm if there is usable momentum before you force a ranking into a flat regime.
3) Volatility targeting: purpose and implementation here
Purpose . Volatility targeting seeks a more stable risk footprint. High-vol assets get sized down, low-vol assets get sized up, so each contributes more evenly to total risk.
Computation in this script (per asset, rolling):
Return series ret = log(price/price ).
Annualized volatility estimate vol = stdev(ret, lookback) * sqrt(tradingdays).
Leverage multiplier volMult = clamp(targetVol / vol, 0.1, 5.0).
This caps sizing so extremely low-vol assets don’t explode weight and extremely high-vol assets don’t go to zero.
Scaled return stream sr = ret * volMult. This is the per-bar, risk-adjusted building block used in the portfolio combinations.
Interpretation . You are not levering your account on the exchange, you are rescaling the contribution each asset’s daily move has on the modeled equity. In live trading you would reflect this with position sizing or notional exposure.
4) Portfolio construction modes
Cross-sectional ranking . Assets are sorted by cr over the chosen lookback. Top and bottom indices are extracted without ties.
Long Only . Averages the volatility-scaled returns of the top 3 assets: avgRet = mean(sr_top1, sr_top2, sr_top3). Position table shows per-asset leverages and weights proportional to their current volMult.
Short Only . Averages the negative of the volatility-scaled returns of the bottom 3: avgRet = mean(-sr_bot1, -sr_bot2, -sr_bot3). Position table shows short legs.
Delta Neutral . Long the top 3 and short the bottom 3 in equal book sizes. Each side is sized to 50 percent notional internally, with weights within each side proportional to volMult. The return stream mixes the two sides: avgRet = mean(sr_top1,sr_top2,sr_top3, -sr_bot1,-sr_bot2,-sr_bot3).
Notes .
The selection metric is raw momentum, the execution stream is volatility-scaled returns. This separation is deliberate. It avoids letting volatility dominate ranking while still enforcing risk parity at the return contribution stage.
If everything rallies together and dispersion collapses, Long Only may behave like a single beta. Delta Neutral is designed to extract cross-sectional momentum with low net beta.
5) Regime filter
A fast EMA(12) vs EMA(21) filter gates exposure.
Long Only active when EMA12 > EMA21. Otherwise the book is set to cash.
Short Only active when EMA12 < EMA21. Otherwise cash.
Delta Neutral is always active.
This prevents taking long momentum entries during obvious local downtrends and vice versa for shorts. When the filter is false, equity is held flat for that bar.
6) Transaction cost modelling
There are two cost touchpoints in the script.
Per-bar drag . When the regime filter is active, the per-bar return is reduced by fee_rate * avgRet inside netRet = avgRet - (fee_rate * avgRet). This models proportional friction relative to traded impact on that bar.
Turnover-linked fee . The script tracks changes in membership of the top and bottom baskets (top1..top3, bot1..bot3). The intent is to charge fees when composition changes. The template counts changes and scales a fee by change count divided by 6 for the six slots.
Use case: increase fee_rate to reflect taker fees and slippage if you rebalance every bar or trade illiquid assets. Reduce it if you rebalance less often or use maker orders.
Practical advice .
If you rebalance daily, start with 5–20 bps round-trip per switch on liquid futures and adjust per venue.
For crypto perp microcaps, stress higher cost assumptions and add slippage buffers.
If you only rotate on lookback boundaries or at signals, use alert-driven rebalances and lower per-bar drag.
7) Backtest metrics and definitions
The script computes a standard set of portfolio statistics once the start date is reached.
Net Profit percent over the full test.
Max Drawdown percent, tracked from running peaks.
Annualized Mean and Stdev using the chosen trading day count.
Variance is the square of annualized stdev.
Sharpe uses daily mean adjusted by risk-free rate and annualized.
Sortino uses downside stdev only.
Omega ratio of sum of gains to sum of losses.
Gain-to-Pain total gains divided by total losses absolute.
CAGR compounded annual growth from start date to now.
Alpha, Beta versus a user-selected benchmark. Beta from covariance of daily returns, Alpha from CAPM.
Skewness of daily returns.
VaR 95 linear-interpolated 5th percentile of daily returns.
CVaR average of the worst 5 percent of daily returns.
Benchmark Buy-and-Hold equity path for comparison.
8) Performance attribution
Cumulative contribution per asset, adjusted for whether it was held long or short and for its volatility multiplier, aggregated across the backtest. You can filter to winners only or show both sides. The panel is sorted by contribution and includes percent labels.
9) Monte Carlo simulation
The panel draws forward equity paths from either a Normal model parameterized by recent mean and stdev, or non-parametric bootstrap of recent daily returns. You control the sample length, number of simulations, forecast horizon, visibility of individual paths, confidence bands, and a reproducible seed.
Normal uses Box-Muller with your seed. Good for quick, smooth envelopes.
Bootstrap resamples realized returns, preserving fat tails and volatility clustering better than a Gaussian assumption.
Bands show 10th, 25th, 75th, 90th percentiles and the path mean.
10) Scatter plot analysis
Four point-cloud modes, each plotting all assets and a star for the current portfolio position, with quadrant guides and labels.
Risk-Return Efficiency . X is risk proxy from leverage, Y is expected return from annualized momentum. The star shows the current book’s composite.
Momentum vs Volatility . Visualizes whether leaders are also high vol, a cue for turnover and cost expectations.
Beta vs Alpha . X is a beta proxy, Y is risk-adjusted excess return proxy. Useful to see if leaders are just beta.
Leverage vs Momentum . X is volMult, Y is momentum. Shows how volatility targeting is redistributing risk.
11) Asset allocation pie chart
Builds a wheel of current allocations.
Long Only, weights are proportional to each long asset’s current volMult and sum to 100 percent.
Short Only, weights show the short book as positive slices that sum to 100 percent.
Delta Neutral, 50 percent long and 50 percent short books, each side leverage-proportional.
Labels can show asset, percent, and current leverage.
12) Inputs and quick presets
Core
Portfolio Strategy . Long Only, Short Only, Delta Neutral.
Initial Capital . For equity scaling in the panel.
Trading Days/Year . 252 for stocks, 365 for crypto.
Target Volatility . Annualized, drives volMult.
Transaction Fees . Per-bar drag and composition change penalty, see the modelling notes above.
Momentum Lookback . Ranking horizon. Shorter is more reactive, longer is steadier.
Start Date . Ensure every symbol has data back to this date to avoid bias.
Benchmark . Used for alpha, beta, and B&H line.
Diagnostics
Metrics, Equity, B&H, Curve labels, Daily return line, Rolling drawdown fill.
Attribution panel. Toggle winners only to focus on what matters.
Monte Carlo mode with Normal or Bootstrap and confidence bands.
Scatter plot type and styling, labels, and portfolio star.
Pie chart and labels for current allocation.
Presets
Crypto Daily, Long Only . Lookback 25, Target Vol 50 percent, Fees 10 bps, Regime filter on, Metrics and Drawdown on. Monte Carlo Bootstrap with Recent 200 bars for bands.
Crypto Daily, Delta Neutral . Lookback 25, Target Vol 50 percent, Fees 15–25 bps, Regime filter always active for this mode. Use Scatter Risk-Return to monitor efficiency and keep the star near upper left quadrants without drifting rightward.
Equities Daily, Long Only . Lookback 60–120, Target Vol 15–20 percent, Fees 5–10 bps, Regime filter on. Use Benchmark SPX and watch Alpha and Beta to keep the book from becoming index beta.
13) Suggested workflow
Universe sanity check . Pick liquid tickers with stable data. Thin assets distort vol estimates and fees.
Check momentum existence . Run on your timeframe. If slope and fit are weak, widen lookback or avoid that asset or timeframe.
Set risk budget . Choose a target volatility that matches your drawdown tolerance. Higher target increases turnover and cost sensitivity.
Pick mode . Long Only for bull regimes, Short Only for sustained downtrends, Delta Neutral for cross-sectional harvesting when index direction is unclear.
Tune lookback . If leaders rotate too often, lengthen it. If entries lag, shorten it.
Validate cost assumptions . Increase fee_rate and stress Monte Carlo. If the edge vanishes with modest friction, refine selection or lengthen rebalance cadence.
Run attribution . Confirm the strategy’s winners align with intuition and not one unstable outlier.
Use alerts . Enable position change, drawdown, volatility breach, regime, momentum shift, and crash alerts to supervise live runs.
Important implementation details mapped to code
Momentum measure . cr = price / price - 1 per symbol for ranking. Simplicity helps avoid overfitting.
Volatility targeting . vol = stdev(log returns, lookback) * sqrt(tradingdays), volMult = clamp(targetVol / vol, 0.1, 5), sr = ret * volMult.
Selection . Extract indices for top1..top3 and bot1..bot3. The arrays rets, scRets, lev_vals, and ticks_arr track momentum, scaled returns, leverage multipliers, and display tickers respectively.
Regime filter . EMA12 vs EMA21 switch determines if the strategy takes risk for Long or Short modes. Delta Neutral ignores the gate.
Equity update . Equity multiplies by 1 + netRet only when the regime was active in the prior bar. Buy-and-hold benchmark is computed separately for comparison.
Tables . Position tables show current top or bottom assets with leverage and weights. Metric table prints all risk and performance figures.
Visualization panels . Attribution, Monte Carlo, scatter, and pie use the last bars to draw overlays that update as the backtest proceeds.
Final notes
Momentum is a portfolio effect. The edge comes from cross-sectional dispersion, adequate risk normalization, and disciplined turnover control, not from a single best asset call.
Volatility targeting stabilizes path but does not fix selection. Use the momentum regression link above to confirm structure exists before you size into it.
Always test higher lag costs and slippage, then recheck metrics, attribution, and Monte Carlo envelopes. If the edge persists under stress, you have something robust.
VWAP Trend
**Overview**
The VWAP Trend indicator is a volume-weighted price analysis tool that visualizes the relationship between price and the anchored Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP) over different timeframes. This script is designed to reveal when the market is trending above or below its volume-weighted equilibrium point, providing a clear framework for identifying directional bias, trend strength, and potential reversals.
By combining an anchored VWAP with exponential smoothing and a secondary trend EMA, the indicator helps traders distinguish between short-term price fluctuations and genuine volume-supported directional moves.
**Core Concept**
VWAP (Volume Weighted Average Price) represents the average price of an asset weighted by traded volume. It reflects where the majority of trading activity has taken place within a chosen period, serving as a critical reference level for institutions and professional traders.
This indicator extends the traditional VWAP concept by:
1. Allowing users to **anchor VWAP to different timeframes** (Daily, Weekly, or Monthly).
2. Applying **smoothing** to create a stable reference curve less prone to noise.
3. Overlaying a **trend EMA** to identify whether current price momentum aligns with or diverges from VWAP equilibrium.
The combination of these elements produces a visual representation of price’s relationship to its fair value across time, helping to identify accumulation and distribution phases.
**Calculation Methodology**
1. **Anchored VWAP Calculation:**
The script resets cumulative volume and cumulative volume–price data at the start of each new VWAP session (based on the selected anchor timeframe). It continuously accumulates the product of price and volume, dividing this by total volume to compute the current VWAP value.
2. **Smoothing Process:**
The raw VWAP line is smoothed using an Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of user-defined length, producing a cleaner, more stable trend curve that minimizes intraperiod noise.
3. **Trend Determination:**
An additional EMA is calculated on the closing price. By comparing the position of this EMA to the smoothed VWAP, the indicator determines the prevailing market bias:
* When the trend EMA is above the smoothed VWAP, the market is considered to be in an **uptrend**.
* When the trend EMA is below the smoothed VWAP, the market is classified as a **downtrend**.
**Visual Structure**
The indicator uses color dynamics and chart overlays to make interpretation intuitive:
* **Smoothed VWAP Line:** The main trend reference, colored blue during bullish conditions and orange during bearish conditions.
* **Price Fill Region:** The area between the smoothed VWAP and price is filled with a translucent color matching the current trend, visually representing whether price is trading above or below equilibrium.
* **Trend EMA (implicit):** Although not separately plotted, it drives the color state of the VWAP, ensuring seamless visual transitions between bullish and bearish conditions.
**Inputs and Parameters**
* **VWAP Timeframe:** Choose between Daily, Weekly, or Monthly anchoring. This determines the reset frequency for cumulative volume and price data.
* **VWAP Smoothing Length:** Defines how many periods are used to smooth the VWAP line. Shorter values produce a more reactive line; longer values create smoother, steadier signals.
* **Trend EMA Length:** Sets the period for the trend detection EMA applied to price. Adjust this to calibrate how quickly the indicator reacts to directional changes.
**Interpretation and Use Cases**
* **Trend Confirmation:** When price and the trend EMA both remain above the smoothed VWAP, the market is showing strong bullish control. Conversely, consistent price action below the VWAP suggests sustained bearish sentiment.
* **Fair Value Assessment:** VWAP serves as a dynamic equilibrium level. Price repeatedly reverting to this line indicates consolidation or fair value zones, while strong directional moves away from VWAP highlight momentum phases.
* **Institutional Benchmarking:** Because large market participants often benchmark entries and exits relative to VWAP, this indicator helps align retail analysis with institutional logic.
* **Reversal Detection:** Sudden crossovers of the trend EMA relative to the VWAP can signal potential reversals or shifts in momentum strength.
**Trading Applications**
* **Trend Following:** Use VWAP’s direction and color state to determine trade bias. Long entries are favored when the VWAP turns blue, while short entries align with orange phases.
* **Mean Reversion:** In ranging conditions, traders may look for price deviations far above or below VWAP as potential reversion opportunities.
* **Multi-Timeframe Confluence:** Combine the Daily VWAP Trend with higher anchor periods (e.g., Weekly or Monthly) to confirm larger trend structure.
* **Support and Resistance Mapping:** VWAP often acts as a strong intraday or session-level support/resistance zone. The smoothed version refines this behavior into a cleaner, more reliable reference.
**Originality and Innovation**
The VWAP Trend indicator stands apart from conventional VWAP scripts through several original features:
1. **Anchor Flexibility:** Most VWAP indicators fix the anchor to a specific session (like daily). This version allows switching between Daily, Weekly, and Monthly anchors dynamically, adapting to various trading styles and time horizons.
2. **Volume-Weighted Smoothing:** The use of an EMA smoothing layer over the raw VWAP provides enhanced stability without compromising responsiveness, delivering a more analytically consistent signal.
3. **EMA-Based Trend Comparison:** By introducing a second trend EMA, the indicator creates a comparative framework that merges volume-weighted price analysis with classical momentum tracking — a rare and powerful combination.
4. **Adaptive Visual System:** The color-shifting and shaded fill between VWAP and price are integrated into a single, lightweight structure, giving traders immediate insight into market bias without the clutter of multiple overlapping indicators.
**Advantages**
* Adaptable to any market, timeframe, or trading style.
* Provides both equilibrium (VWAP) and momentum (EMA) perspectives.
* Smooths out noise while retaining the integrity of volume-based price dynamics.
* Enhances situational awareness through intuitive color-coded visualization.
* Ideal for professional, swing, and intraday traders seeking context-driven market direction.
**Summary**
The VWAP Trend indicator is a modern enhancement of the classical VWAP methodology. By merging anchored volume-weighted analysis with smoothed trend detection and visual state feedback, it provides a comprehensive perspective on market equilibrium and directional strength. It is built for traders who seek more than static price references — offering an adaptive, volume-aware framework for identifying market trends, reversals, and fair-value zones with precision and clarity.
Central Limit Theorem Reversion IndicatorDear TV community, let me introduce you to the first-ever Central Limit Theorem indicator on TradingView.
The Central Limit Theorem is used in statistics and it can be quite useful in quant trading and understanding market behaviors.
In short, the CLT states: "When you take repeated samples from any population and calculate their averages, those averages will form a normal (bell curve) distribution—no matter what the original data looks like."
In this CLT indicator, I use statistical theory to identify high-probability mean reversion opportunities in the markets. It calculates statistical confidence bands and z-scores to identify when price movements deviate significantly from their expected distribution, signaling potential reversion opportunities with quantifiable probability levels.
Mathematical Foundation
The Central Limit Theorem (CLT) says that when you average many data points together, those averages will form a predictable bell-curve pattern, even if the original data is completely random and unpredictable (which often is in the markets). This works no matter what you're measuring, and it gets more reliable as you use more data points.
Why using it for trading?
Individual price movements seem random and chaotic, but when we look at the average of many price movements, we can actually predict how they should behave statistically. This lets us spot when prices have moved "too far" from what's normal—and those extreme moves tend to snap back (mean reversion).
Key Formula:
Z = (X̄ - μ) / (σ / √n)
Where:
- X̄ = Sample mean (average return over n periods)
- μ = Population mean (long-term expected return)
- σ = Population standard deviation (volatility)
- n = Sample size
- σ/√n = Standard error of the mean
How I Apply CLT
Step 1: Calculate Returns
Measures how much price changed from one bar to the next (using logarithms for better statistical properties)
Step 2: Average Recent Returns
Takes the average of the last n returns (e.g., last 100 bars). This is your "sample mean."
Step 3: Find What's "Normal"
Looks at historical data to determine: a) What the typical average return should be (the long-term mean) and b) How volatile the market usually is (standard deviation)
Step 4: Calculate Standard Error
Determines how much sample averages naturally vary. Larger samples = smaller expected variation.
Step 5: Calculate Z-Score
Measures how unusual the current situation is.
Step 6: Draw Confidence Bands
Converts these statistical boundaries into actual price levels on your chart, showing where price is statistically expected to stay 95% and 99% of the time.
Interpretation & Usage
The Z-Score:
The z-score tells you how statistically unusual the current price deviation is:
|Z| < 1.0 → Normal behavior, no action
|Z| = 1.0 to 1.96 → Moderate deviation, watch closely
|Z| = 1.96 to 2.58 → Significant deviation (95%+), consider entry
|Z| > 2.58 → Extreme deviation (99%+), high probability setup
The Confidence Bands
- Upper Red Bands: 95% and 99% overbought zones → Expect mean reversion downward as the price is not likely to cross these lines.
- Center Gray Line: Statistical expectation (fair value)
- Lower Blue Bands: 95% and 99% oversold zones → Expect mean reversion upward
Trading Logic:
- When price exceeds the upper 95% band (z-score > +1.96), there's only a 5% probability this is random noise → Strong sell/short signal
- When price falls below the lower 95% band (z-score < -1.96), there's a 95% statistical expectation of upward reversion → Strong buy/long signal
Background Gradient
The background color provides real-time visual feedback:
- Blue shades: Oversold conditions, expect upward reversion
- Red shades: Overbought conditions, expect downward reversion
- Intensity: Darker colors indicate stronger statistical significance
Trading Strategy Examples
Hypothetically, this is how the indicator could be used:
- Long: Z-score < -1.96 (below 95% confidence band)
- Short: Z-score > +1.96 (above 95% confidence band)
- Take profit when price returns to center line (Z ≈ 0)
Input Parameters
Sample Size (n) - Default: 100
Lookback Period (m) - Default: 100
You can also create alerts based on the indicator.
Final notes:
- The indicator uses logarithmic returns for better statistical properties
- Converts statistical bands back to price space for practical use
- Adaptive volatility: Bands automatically widen in high volatility, narrow in low volatility
- No repainting: yay! All calculations use historical data only
Feedback is more than welcome!
Henri
Dynamic ~ CVDDynamic - CVD is a smart, time-adaptive version of the classic Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) indicator, designed to help traders visualize market buying and selling pressure across all timeframes with minimal manual tweaking.
Overview
Cumulative Volume Delta tracks the difference between buying and selling volume during each bar. It reveals whether aggressive buyers or sellers dominate the market, offering deep insight into real-time market sentiment and underlying momentum.
This version of CVD automatically adjusts its EMA smoothing length based on your selected timeframe, ensuring optimal sensitivity and consistency across intraday, daily, weekly, and even monthly charts.
Features
Dynamic EMA Length — Automatically adapts smoothing parameters based on the chart timeframe:
1–59 min → 50
1–23 h → 21
Daily & Weekly → 100
Monthly → 10
CVD Visualization — Displays cumulative delta to show the ongoing buying/selling imbalance.
CVD‑EMA Curve — Offers a clear trend signal by comparing the CVD line with its EMA.
Adaptive Color Logic — EMA curve changes color dynamically:
Green when CVD > EMA (bullish pressure)
Gray when CVD < EMA (bearish pressure)
How to Use
Use Dynamic - CVD to gauge whether the market is accumulating (net buying) or distributing (net selling).
When CVD rises above its EMA, it often signals consistent buying pressure and potential bullish continuation.
When CVD stays below its EMA, it highlights sustained selling pressure and possible weakness.
The dynamic EMA makes it suitable for scalping, swing trading, and longer-term trend analysis—no need to manually adjust settings.
Best For
Traders looking to measure real buying/selling flow rather than price movement alone.
Market participants who want a plug‑and‑play CVD that stays accurate across all timeframes.
Anyone interested in volume‑based momentum confirmation tools.
Disclaimer
This script is provided for educational and analytical purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any asset. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always perform your own analysis and consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions. The author is not responsible for any financial losses or trading outcomes arising from the use of this indicator.
3D Candles (Zeiierman)█ Overview
3D Candles (Zeiierman) is a unique 3D take on classic candlesticks, offering a fresh, high-clarity way to visualize price action directly on your chart. Visualizing price in alternative ways can help traders interpret the same data differently and potentially gain a new perspective.
█ How It Works
⚪ 3D Body Construction
For each bar, the script computes the candle body (open/close bounds), then projects a top face offset by a depth amount. The depth is proportional to that candle’s high–low range, so it looks consistent across symbols with different prices/precisions.
rng = math.max(1e-10, high - low ) // candle range
depthMag = rng * depthPct * factorMag // % of range, shaped by tilt amount
depth = depthMag * factorSign // direction from dev (up/down)
depthPct → how “thick” the 3D effect is, as a % of each candle’s own range.
factorMag → scales the effect based on your tilt input (dev), with a smooth curve so small tilts still show.
factorSign → applies the direction of the tilt (up or down).
⚪ Tilt & Perspective
Tilt is controlled by dev and translated into a gentle perspective factor:
slope = (4.0 * math.abs(dev)) / width
factorMag = math.pow(math.min(1.0, slope), 0.5) // sqrt softens response
factorSign = dev == 0 ? 0.0 : math.sign(dev) // direction (up/down)
Larger dev → stronger 3D presence (up to a cap).
The square-root curve makes small dev values noticeable without overdoing it.
█ How to Use
Traders can use 3D Candles just like regular candlesticks. The difference is the 3D visualization, which can broaden your view and help you notice price behavior from a fresh perspective.
⚪ Quick setup (dual-view):
Split your TradingView layout into two synchronized charts.
Right pane: keep your standard candlestick or bar chart for live execution.
Left pane: add 3D Candles (Zeiierman) to compare the same symbol/timeframe.
Observe differences: the 3D rendering can make expansion/contraction and body emphasis easier to spot at a glance.
█ Go Full 3D
Take the experience further by pairing 3D Candles (Zeiierman) with Volume Profile 3D (Zeiierman) , a perfect complement that shows where activity is concentrated, while your 3D candles show how the price unfolded.
█ Settings
Candles — How many 3D candles to draw. Higher values draw more shapes and may impact performance on slower machines.
Block Width (bars) — Visual thickness of each 3D candle along the x-axis. Larger values look chunkier but can overlap more.
Up/Down — Controls the tilt and strength of the 3D top face.
3D depth (% of range) — Thickness of the 3D effect as a percentage of each candle’s own high–low range. Larger values exaggerate the depth.
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Disclaimer
The content provided in my scripts, indicators, ideas, algorithms, and systems is for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendations, or a solicitation to buy or sell any financial instruments. I will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from the use of or reliance on such information.
All investments involve risk, and the past performance of a security, industry, sector, market, financial product, trading strategy, backtest, or individual's trading does not guarantee future results or returns. Investors are fully responsible for any investment decisions they make. Such decisions should be based solely on an evaluation of their financial circumstances, investment objectives, risk tolerance, and liquidity needs.
Dominant DATR [CHE] Dominant DATR — Directional ATR stream with dominant-side EMA, bands, labels, and alerts
Summary
Dominant DATR builds two directional volatility streams from the true range, assigns each bar’s range to the up or down side based on the sign of the close-to-close move, and then tracks the dominant side through an exponential average. A rolling band around the dominant stream defines recent extremes, while optional gradient coloring reflects relative magnitude. Swing-based labels mark new higher highs or lower lows on the dominant stream, and alerts can be enabled for swings, zero-line crossings, and band breakouts. The result is a compact pane that highlights regime bias and intensity without relying on price overlays.
Motivation: Why this design?
Conventional ATR treats all range as symmetric, which can mask directional pressure, cause late regime shifts, and produce frequent false flips during noisy phases. This design separates the range into up and down contributions, then emphasizes whichever side is stronger. A single smoothed dominant stream clarifies bias, while the band and swing markers help distinguish continuation from exhaustion. Optional normalization by close makes the metric comparable across instruments with different price scales.
What’s different vs. standard approaches?
Reference baseline: Classic ATR or a basic EMA of price.
Architecture differences:
Directional weighting of range using positive and negative close-to-close moves.
Separate moving averages for up and down contributions combined into one dominant stream.
Rolling highest and lowest of the dominant stream to form a band.
Optional normalization by close, window-based scaling for color intensity, and gamma adjustment for visual contrast.
Event logic for swing highs and lows on the dominant stream, with label buffering and pruning.
Configurable alerts for swings, zero-line crossings, and band breakouts.
Practical effect: You see when volatility is concentrated on one side, how strong that bias currently is, and when the dominant stream pushes through or fails at its recent envelope.
How it works (technical)
Each bar’s move is split into an up component and a down component based on whether the close increased or decreased relative to the prior close. The bar’s true range is proportionally assigned to up or down using those components as weights.
Each side is smoothed with a Wilder-style moving average. The dominant stream is the side with the larger value, recorded as positive for up dominance and negative for down dominance.
The dominant stream is then smoothed with an exponential moving average to reduce noise and provide a responsive yet stable signal line.
A rolling window tracks the highest and lowest values of the dominant EMA to form an envelope. Crossings of these bounds indicate unusual strength or weakness relative to recent history.
For visualization, the absolute value of the dominant EMA is scaled over a lookback window and passed through a gamma curve to modulate gradient intensity. Colors are chosen separately for up and down regimes.
Swing events are detected by comparing the dominant EMA to its recent extremes over a short lookback. Labels are placed when a prior bar set an extreme and the current bar confirms it. A managed array prunes older labels when the user-defined maximum is exceeded.
Alerts mirror these events and also include zero-line crossings and band breakouts. The script does not force closed-bar confirmation; users should configure alert execution timing to suit their workflow.
There are no higher-timeframe requests and no security calls. State is limited to simple arrays for labels and persistent color parameters.
Parameter Guide
Parameter — Effect — Default — Trade-offs/Tips
ATR Length — Smoothing of directional true range streams — fourteen — Longer reduces noise and may delay regime shifts; shorter increases responsiveness.
EMA Length — Smoothing of the dominant stream — twenty-five — Lower values react faster; higher values reduce whipsaw.
Band Length — Window for recent highs and lows of the dominant stream — ten — Short windows flag frequent breakouts; long windows emphasize only exceptional moves.
Normalize by Close — Divide by close price to produce a percent-like scale — false — Useful across assets with very different price levels.
Enable gradient color — Turn on magnitude-based coloring — true — Visual aid only; can be disabled for simplicity.
Gradient window — Lookback used to scale color intensity — one hundred — Larger windows stabilize the color scale.
Gamma (lines) — Adjust gradient intensity curve — zero point eight — Lower values compress variation; higher values expand it.
Gradient transparency — Transparency for gradient plots — zero, between zero and ninety — Higher values mute colors.
Up dark / Up neon — Base and peak colors for up dominance — green tones — Styling only.
Down dark / Down neon — Base and peak colors for down dominance — red tones — Styling only.
Show zero line / Background tint — Visual references for regime — true and false — Background tint can help quick scanning.
Swing length — Bars used to detect swing highs or lows — two — Larger values demand more structure.
Show labels / Max labels / Label offset — Label visibility, cap, and vertical offset — true, two hundred, zero — Increase cap with care to avoid clutter.
Alerts: HH/LL, Zero Cross, Band Break — Toggle alert rules — true, false, false — Enable only what you need.
Reading & Interpretation
The dominant EMA above zero indicates up-side dominance; below zero indicates down-side dominance.
Band lines show recent extremes of the dominant EMA; pushes through the band suggest unusual momentum on the dominant side.
Gradient intensity reflects local magnitude of dominance relative to the chosen window.
HH/LL labels appear when the dominant stream prints a new local extreme in the current regime and that extreme is confirmed on the next bar.
Zero-line crosses suggest regime flips; combine with structure or filters to reduce noise.
Practical Workflows & Combinations
Trend following: Consider entries when the dominant EMA is on the regime side and expands away from zero. Band breakouts add confirmation; structure such as higher highs or lower lows in price can filter signals.
Exits and stops: Tighten exits when the dominant stream stalls near the band or fades toward zero. Opposite swing labels can serve as early caution.
Multi-asset and multi-timeframe: Works across liquid assets and common timeframes. For lower noise instruments, reduce smoothing slightly; for high noise, increase lengths and swing length.
Behavior, Constraints & Performance
Repaint and confirmation: No security calls and no future-looking references. Swing labels confirm one bar later by design. Real-time crosses can change intra-bar; use bar-close alerts if needed.
Resources: `max_bars_back` is two thousand. The script uses an array for labels with pruning, gradient color computations, and a simple while loop that runs only when the label cap is exceeded.
Known limits: The EMA can lag at sharp turns. Normalization by close changes scale and may affect thresholds. Extremely gappy data can produce abrupt shifts in the dominant side.
Sensible Defaults & Quick Tuning
Starting point: ATR Length fourteen, EMA Length twenty-five, Band Length ten, Swing Length two, gradient enabled.
Too many flips: Increase EMA Length and swing length, or enable only swing alerts.
Too sluggish: Decrease EMA Length and Band Length.
Inconsistent scales across symbols: Enable Normalize by Close.
Visual clutter: Disable gradient or reduce label cap.
What this indicator is—and isn’t
This is a volatility-bias visualization and signal layer that highlights directional pressure and intensity. It is not a complete trading system and does not produce position sizing or risk management. Use it with market structure, context, and independent risk controls.
Disclaimer
The content provided, including all code and materials, is strictly for educational and informational purposes only. It is not intended as, and should not be interpreted as, financial advice, a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument, or an offer of any financial product or service. All strategies, tools, and examples discussed are provided for illustrative purposes to demonstrate coding techniques and the functionality of Pine Script within a trading context.
Any results from strategies or tools provided are hypothetical, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve high risk, including the potential loss of principal, and may not be suitable for all individuals. Before making any trading decisions, please consult with a qualified financial professional to understand the risks involved.
By using this script, you acknowledge and agree that any trading decisions are made solely at your discretion and risk.
Do not use this indicator on Heikin-Ashi, Renko, Kagi, Point-and-Figure, or Range charts, as these chart types can produce unrealistic results for signal markers and alerts.
Best regards and happy trading
Chervolino
