Summer 2020/2021The Pine Script indicator you are examining is designed to enhance your trading chart by visually demarcating specific seasonal periods known as summer for the years 2020 and 2021. This indicator achieves this by employing background shading to indicate these defined summer periods, providing traders with a visual reference to help in analyzing seasonal trends and making informed decisions.
The script operates with precision by defining two critical summer periods: one for the year 2020 and another for the year 2021. The summer period, in this context, is identified as the time span between June 21 and September 22 of each specified year. The script utilizes the Pine Script timestamp function to create exact date and time boundaries for these periods, marking June 21 as the start of summer and September 22 as the end of summer for each year.
In detail, the indicator sets up two distinct background colors to represent the summer periods of 2020 and 2021. Specifically, it employs a semi-transparent blue color to signify the summer period of 2020, and a semi-transparent green color to denote the summer period of 2021. This differentiation in colors allows for easy visual distinction between the two years on the chart.
To achieve this visual effect, the script continuously evaluates the current bar's timestamp against the defined summer periods. If the current bar falls within the summer range of 2020, the background is shaded with the specified blue hue. Conversely, if the current bar is within the summer range of 2021, the background is shaded with the green hue. This approach ensures that the chart background reflects the specific summer periods accurately and distinctly.
By incorporating this indicator into your TradingView chart, you gain the ability to visually distinguish between different summer periods of consecutive years. This can be particularly useful for analyzing how market behavior or price movements vary during these specific times, facilitating better trend analysis and decision-making based on historical seasonal patterns.
Overall, this indicator serves as a practical tool for enhancing your chart's clarity and providing a seasonal context that can aid in the evaluation of trading strategies and historical market trends during the summer months of 2020 and 2021.
ค้นหาในสคริปต์สำหรับ "2021年4月+黄金价格走势"
Moon Phases Strategy 2015 till 2021Moon Phases Strategy
Thank you to Author: Dustin Drummond for allowing me to use his Moon Phase strategy code and modify it. I wanted to test out the accuracy of the moon phase. And I could not have done it without his code
It was created to test the Moon Phase theory compared to just a buy and hold strategy.
It buys on full Moon and sells on the new moon. I also have added the ability to add stop loss and target profit if anyone wants to tinker with it. This strategy uses hard-coded dates from 1/1/2015 until 12/31/2021 only! Any dates outside of that range need to be added manually in the code or it will not work.
I may or may not update this so please don't be upset if it stops working after 12/31/2021.
Feel free to use any part of this code and please let me know if you can improve on this strategy.
Result:
50% accurate using data from 2015 till today.
I find a buy and hold strategy to have outperformed the moon phase.
It does have its value. It might be used as a confluence with other established indicators.
Monthly Options Expiration 2021Monthly options expiration for the year 2021.
Also you can set a flag X no. of days before the expiration date. I use it at as marker to take off existing positions in expiration week or roll to next expiration date or to place new trades.
Happy new year 2021 in advance and all the best traders.
[2021] SISIv SCALPER V1/0script of a scalping crypto strategy
aim to capture very short reversal on low timeframe
CDC ActionZone BF for ETHUSD-1D © PRoSkYNeT-EE
Based on improvements from "Kitti-Playbook Action Zone V.4.2.0.3 for Stock Market"
Based on improvements from "CDC Action Zone V3 2020 by piriya33"
Based on Triple MACD crossover between 9/15, 21/28, 15/28 for filter error signal (noise) from CDC ActionZone V3
MACDs generated from the execution of millions of times in the "Brute Force Algorithm" to backtest data from the past 5 years. ( 2017-08-21 to 2022-08-01 )
Released 2022-08-01
***** The indicator is used in the ETHUSD 1 Day period ONLY *****
Recommended Stop Loss : -4 % (execute stop Loss after candlestick has been closed)
Backtest Result ( Start $100 )
Winrate 63 % (Win:12, Loss:7, Total:19)
Live Days 1,806 days
B : Buy
S : Sell
SL : Stop Loss
2022-07-19 07 - 1,542 : B 6.971 ETH
2022-04-13 07 - 3,118 : S 8.98 % $10,750 12,7,19 63 %
2022-03-20 07 - 2,861 : B 3.448 ETH
2021-12-03 07 - 4,216 : SL -8.94 % $9,864 11,7,18 61 %
2021-11-30 07 - 4,630 : B 2.340 ETH
2021-11-18 07 - 3,997 : S 13.71 % $10,832 11,6,17 65 %
2021-10-05 07 - 3,515 : B 2.710 ETH
2021-09-20 07 - 2,977 : S 29.38 % $9,526 10,6,16 63 %
2021-07-28 07 - 2,301 : B 3.200 ETH
2021-05-20 07 - 2,769 : S 50.49 % $7,363 9,6,15 60 %
2021-03-30 07 - 1,840 : B 2.659 ETH
2021-03-22 07 - 1,681 : SL -8.29 % $4,893 8,6,14 57 %
2021-03-08 07 - 1,833 : B 2.911 ETH
2021-02-26 07 - 1,445 : S 279.27 % $5,335 8,5,13 62 %
2020-10-13 07 - 381 : B 3.692 ETH
2020-09-05 07 - 335 : S 38.43 % $1,407 7,5,12 58 %
2020-07-06 07 - 242 : B 4.199 ETH
2020-06-27 07 - 221 : S 28.49 % $1,016 6,5,11 55 %
2020-04-16 07 - 172 : B 4.598 ETH
2020-02-29 07 - 217 : S 47.62 % $791 5,5,10 50 %
2020-01-12 07 - 147 : B 3.644 ETH
2019-11-18 07 - 178 : S -2.73 % $536 4,5,9 44 %
2019-11-01 07 - 183 : B 3.010 ETH
2019-09-23 07 - 201 : SL -4.29 % $551 4,4,8 50 %
2019-09-18 07 - 210 : B 2.740 ETH
2019-07-12 07 - 275 : S 63.69 % $575 4,3,7 57 %
2019-05-03 07 - 168 : B 2.093 ETH
2019-04-28 07 - 158 : S 29.51 % $352 3,3,6 50 %
2019-02-15 07 - 122 : B 2.225 ETH
2019-01-10 07 - 125 : SL -6.02 % $271 2,3,5 40 %
2018-12-29 07 - 133 : B 2.172 ETH
2018-05-22 07 - 641 : S 5.95 % $289 2,2,4 50 %
2018-04-21 07 - 605 : B 0.451 ETH
2018-02-02 07 - 922 : S 197.42 % $273 1,2,3 33 %
2017-11-11 07 - 310 : B 0.296 ETH
2017-10-09 07 - 297 : SL -4.50 % $92 0,2,2 0 %
2017-10-07 07 - 311 : B 0.309 ETH
2017-08-22 07 - 310 : SL -4.02 % $96 0,1,1 0 %
2017-08-21 07 - 323 : B 0.310 ETH
TASC 2021.11 MADH Moving Average Difference, Hann█ OVERVIEW
Presented here is code for the "Moving Average Difference, Hann" indicator originally conceived by John Ehlers. The code is also published in the November 2021 issue of Trader's Tips by Technical Analysis of Stocks & Commodities (TASC) magazine.
█ CONCEPTS
By employing a Hann windowed finite impulse response filter (FIR), John Ehlers has enhanced the Moving Average Difference (MAD) to provide an oscillator with exceptional smoothness.
Of notable mention, the wave form of MADH resembles Ehlers' "Reverse EMA" Indicator, formerly revealed in the September 2017 issue of TASC. Many variations of the "Reverse EMA" were published in TradingView's Public Library.
█ FEATURES
Three values in the script's "Settings/Inputs" provide control over the oscillators behavior:
• The price source
• A "Short Length" with a default of 8, to manage the lower band edge of the oscillator
• The "Dominant Cycle", originally set at 27, which appears to be a placeholder for an adaptive control mechanism
Two coloring options are provided for the line's fill:
• "ZeroCross", the default, uses the line's position above/below the zero level. This is the mode used in the top version of MADH on this chart.
• "Momentum" uses the line's up/down state, as shown in the bottom version of the indicator on the chart.
█ NOTES
Calculations
The source price is used in two independent Hann windowed FIR filters having two different periods (lengths) of historical observation for calculation, one being a "Short Length" and the other termed "Dominant Cycle". These are then passed to a "rate of change" calculation and then returned by the reusable function. The secret sauce is that a "windowed Hann FIR filter" is superior tp a generic SMA filter, and that ultimately reveals Ehlers' clever enhancement. We'll have to wait and see what ingenuities Ehlers has next to unleash. Stay tuned...
The `madh()` function code was optimized for computational efficiency in Pine, differing visibly from Ehlers' original formula, but yielding the same results as Ehlers' version.
Background
This indicator has a sibling indicator discussed in the "The MAD Indicator, Enhanced" article by Ehlers. MADH is an evolutionary update from the prior MAD indicator code published in the October 2021 issue of TASC.
Sibling Indicators
• Moving Average Difference (MAD)
• Cycle/Trend Analytics
Related Information
• Cycle/Trend Analytics And The MAD Indicator
• The Reverse EMA Indicator
• Hann Window
• ROC
Join TradingView!
FIR Hann Window Indicator (Ehlers)From Ehlers' Windowing article:
"A still-smoother weighting function that is easy to program is called the Hann window. The Hann window is often described as a “sine squared” distribution, although it is easier to program as a cosine subtracted from unity. The shape of the coefficient outline looks like a sinewave whose valleys are at the ends of the array and whose peak is at the center of the array. This configuration offers a smooth window transition from the smallest coefficient amplitude to the largest coefficient amplitude."
Ported from: { TASC SEP 2021 FIR Hann Window Indicator } (C) 2021 John F. Ehlers
Stocks & Commodities V. 39:09 (8–14, 23): Windowing by John F. Ehlers
Original code found here: traders.com
FIR Chart: traders.com
ROC Chart: traders.com
Ehlers style implementation mostly maintained for easy verification.
Added optional ROC display.
Style and efficiency updates + Hann windowing as a function coming soon.
Indicator added twice to chart show both FIR and ROC.
JPMorgan G7 Volatility IndexThe JPMorgan G7 Volatility Index: Scientific Analysis and Professional Applications
Introduction
The JPMorgan G7 Volatility Index (G7VOL) represents a sophisticated metric for monitoring currency market volatility across major developed economies. This indicator functions as an approximation of JPMorgan's proprietary volatility indices, providing traders and investors with a normalized measurement of cross-currency volatility conditions (Clark, 2019).
Theoretical Foundation
Currency volatility is fundamentally defined as "the statistical measure of the dispersion of returns for a given security or market index" (Hull, 2018, p.127). In the context of G7 currencies, this volatility measurement becomes particularly significant due to the economic importance of these nations, which collectively represent more than 50% of global nominal GDP (IMF, 2022).
According to Menkhoff et al. (2012, p.685), "currency volatility serves as a global risk factor that affects expected returns across different asset classes." This finding underscores the importance of monitoring G7 currency volatility as a proxy for global financial conditions.
Methodology
The G7VOL indicator employs a multi-step calculation process:
Individual volatility calculation for seven major currency pairs using standard deviation normalized by price (Lo, 2002)
- Weighted-average combination of these volatilities to form a composite index
- Normalization against historical bands to create a standardized scale
- Visual representation through dynamic coloring that reflects current market conditions
The mathematical foundation follows the volatility calculation methodology proposed by Bollerslev et al. (2018):
Volatility = σ(returns) / price × 100
Where σ represents standard deviation calculated over a specified timeframe, typically 20 periods as recommended by the Bank for International Settlements (BIS, 2020).
Professional Applications
Professional traders and institutional investors employ the G7VOL indicator in several key ways:
1. Risk Management Signaling
According to research by Adrian and Brunnermeier (2016), elevated currency volatility often precedes broader market stress. When the G7VOL breaches its high volatility threshold (typically 1.5 times the 100-period average), portfolio managers frequently reduce risk exposure across asset classes. As noted by Borio (2019, p.17), "currency volatility spikes have historically preceded equity market corrections by 2-7 trading days."
2. Counter-Cyclical Investment Strategy
Low G7 volatility periods (readings below the lower band) tend to coincide with what Shin (2017) describes as "risk-on" environments. Professional investors often use these signals to increase allocations to higher-beta assets and emerging markets. Campbell et al. (2021) found that G7 volatility in the lowest quintile historically preceded emerging market outperformance by an average of 3.7% over subsequent quarters.
3. Regime Identification
The normalized volatility framework enables identification of distinct market regimes:
- Readings above 1.0: Crisis/high volatility regime
- Readings between -0.5 and 0.5: Normal volatility regime
- Readings below -1.0: Unusually calm markets
According to Rey (2015), these regimes have significant implications for global monetary policy transmission mechanisms and cross-border capital flows.
Interpretation and Trading Applications
G7 currency volatility serves as a barometer for global financial conditions due to these currencies' centrality in international trade and reserve status. As noted by Gagnon and Ihrig (2021, p.423), "G7 currency volatility captures both trade-related uncertainty and broader financial market risk appetites."
Professional traders apply this indicator in multiple contexts:
- Leading indicator: Research from the Federal Reserve Board (Powell, 2020) suggests G7 volatility often leads VIX movements by 1-3 days, providing advance warning of broader market volatility.
- Correlation shifts: During periods of elevated G7 volatility, cross-asset correlations typically increase what Brunnermeier and Pedersen (2009) term "correlation breakdown during stress periods." This phenomenon informs portfolio diversification strategies.
- Carry trade timing: Currency carry strategies perform best during low volatility regimes as documented by Lustig et al. (2011). The G7VOL indicator provides objective thresholds for initiating or exiting such positions.
References
Adrian, T. and Brunnermeier, M.K. (2016) 'CoVaR', American Economic Review, 106(7), pp.1705-1741.
Bank for International Settlements (2020) Monitoring Volatility in Foreign Exchange Markets. BIS Quarterly Review, December 2020.
Bollerslev, T., Patton, A.J. and Quaedvlieg, R. (2018) 'Modeling and forecasting (un)reliable realized volatilities', Journal of Econometrics, 204(1), pp.112-130.
Borio, C. (2019) 'Monetary policy in the grip of a pincer movement', BIS Working Papers, No. 706.
Brunnermeier, M.K. and Pedersen, L.H. (2009) 'Market liquidity and funding liquidity', Review of Financial Studies, 22(6), pp.2201-2238.
Campbell, J.Y., Sunderam, A. and Viceira, L.M. (2021) 'Inflation Bets or Deflation Hedges? The Changing Risks of Nominal Bonds', Critical Finance Review, 10(2), pp.303-336.
Clark, J. (2019) 'Currency Volatility and Macro Fundamentals', JPMorgan Global FX Research Quarterly, Fall 2019.
Gagnon, J.E. and Ihrig, J. (2021) 'What drives foreign exchange markets?', International Finance, 24(3), pp.414-428.
Hull, J.C. (2018) Options, Futures, and Other Derivatives. 10th edn. London: Pearson.
International Monetary Fund (2022) World Economic Outlook Database. Washington, DC: IMF.
Lo, A.W. (2002) 'The statistics of Sharpe ratios', Financial Analysts Journal, 58(4), pp.36-52.
Lustig, H., Roussanov, N. and Verdelhan, A. (2011) 'Common risk factors in currency markets', Review of Financial Studies, 24(11), pp.3731-3777.
Menkhoff, L., Sarno, L., Schmeling, M. and Schrimpf, A. (2012) 'Carry trades and global foreign exchange volatility', Journal of Finance, 67(2), pp.681-718.
Powell, J. (2020) Monetary Policy and Price Stability. Speech at Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, August 27, 2020.
Rey, H. (2015) 'Dilemma not trilemma: The global financial cycle and monetary policy independence', NBER Working Paper No. 21162.
Shin, H.S. (2017) 'The bank/capital markets nexus goes global', Bank for International Settlements Speech, January 15, 2017.
Price Correction to fix data manipulation and mispricingPrice Correction corrects for index and security mispricing to the extent possible in TradingView on both daily and intraday charts. Price correction addresses mispricing issues for specific securities with known issues, or the user can build daily candles from intraday data instead of relying on exchange reported daily OHLC prices, which can include both legitimate special auction and off-exchange trades or illegitimate mispricing. The user can also detect daily OHLC prices that don’t reflect the intraday price action within a specified percent deviation. Price Correction functions as normal candles or bars for any time frame when correction is not needed.
On the 4th of October 2022, the AMEX exchange, owned by the New York Stock Exchange, decided to misprice the daily OHLC data for the SPY, the world’s largest ETF fund. The exchange eliminated the overnight gap that should have occurred in the daily chart that represents regular trading hours by showing a wick connecting near the close of the previous day. Neither the SPX, the SP500 cash index that the SPY ETF tracks, nor other SPX ETFs such as VOO or IVV show such a wick because significant price action at that level never occurred. The intraday SPY chart never shows the price drop below 372.31 that day, but there is a wick that extends to 366.57. On the 6th of October, they continued this practice of using a wick that connects with the close of the previous day to eliminate gaps in daily price action. The objective of this indicator is to fix such inconsistent mispricing practices in the SPY, NYA, and other indices or securities.
Price Correction corrects for the daily mispricing in the SPY to agree with the price action that actually occurred in the SPX index it tracks, as well as the other SPX ETFs, by using intraday data. The chart below compares the Price Correction of the SPY (top) to the SPX (middle) and the original mispriced SPY (bottom) with incorrect wicks. Price correction (top) removes those incorrect wicks (bottom) to match the SPX (middle).
The daily mispricing of the SPY follows after the successful deployment of the NYSE Composite Index mispricing, NYA, an index that represents all common stocks within the New York Stock Exchange, the largest exchange in the world. The importance of the NYA should not be understated. It is the price counterpart to NYSE’s market internals or statistics. Beginning in 2021, the New York Stock Exchange eliminated gaps in daily OHLC data for the NYA by using the close of the previous day as the open for the following day, in violation of their own NYSE Index Series Methodology. The Methodology states for the opening price that “The first index level is calculated and published around 09:30 ET, when the U.S. equity markets open for their regular trading session. The calculation of that level utilizes the most updated prices available at that moment.” You can verify for yourself that this is simply not the case. The first update of the NYA price for each day matches the close of the previous day, not the “most updated prices available at that moment”, causing data providers to often represent the first intraday bar with a huge sudden price change when an overnight price change occurred instead. For example, on 13 Jun 2022, TradingView shows a one-minute bar drop 2.3%. With a market capitalization of roughly 23 trillion dollars, the NYSE composite capitalization did not suddenly drop a half-trillion dollars in just one minute as the intraday chart data would have you believe. All major US indices, index ETFs, and even foreign indices like the Toronto TAX, the Australian ASXAL, the Bombay SENSEX, and German DAX had down gaps that day, except for the mispriced NYSE index. Price Correction corrects for this mispricing in daily OHLC data, as shown in the main chart at the top of this page comparing the original NYA (top) to the Price Corrected NYA (bottom).
Price Correction also corrects for the intraday mispricing in the NYA. The chart below shows how the Price Correction (top) replaces the incorrect first one-minute candles with gaps (bottom) from 22 Sep 2022 to 29 Sep 2022. TradingView is inconsistent in how intraday data is reported for overnight gaps by sometimes connecting the first intraday bar of the day to the close of the previous day, and other times not. This inconsistency may be due to manually changing the intraday data based on user support tickets. For example, after reporting the lack of a major gap in the NYA daily OHLC prices that existed intraday for 13 Jun 2022, TradingView opted to remove the true gap in intraday prices by creating a 2.3% half-a-trillion-dollar one-minute bar that connected the close of the previous day to show a sudden drop in price that didn’t occur, instead of adding the gap in the daily OHLC data that actually took place from overnight price action.
Price Correction allows users to detect daily OHLC data that does not reflect the intraday price action within a certain percent difference by changing the color of those candles or bars that deviate. The chart below clearly shows the start of the NYSE disinformation campaign for NYA that started in 2021 by painting blue those candles with daily OHLC values that deviated from the intraday values by 0.1%. Before 2021, the number of deviating candles is relatively sparse, but beginning in 2021, the chart is littered with deviating candles.
If there are other index or security mispricing or data issues you are aware of that can be incorporated into Price Correction, please let me know. Accurate financial data is indispensable in making accurate financial decisions. Assert your right to accurate financial data by reporting incorrect data and mispricing issues.
How to use the Price Correction
Simply add this “indicator” to your chart and remove the mispriced default candles or bars by right clicking on the chart, selecting Settings, and de-selecting Body, Wick, and Border under the Symbol tab. The Presets settings automatically takes care of mispricing in the NYA and SPY to the extent possible in TradingView. The user can also build their own daily candles based off of intraday data to address other securities that may have mispricing issues.
sm trend analyzer█ OVERVIEW
This script is intended to provide full time frame continuity information for almost all time frames (3, 5, 15, 30, 60, 4H, Day, Week, Month, Quarter, Year)
When added, the script provides a visual indicator/table to the bottom right of the screen to view the different performance at each time frame.
----------
Output
Time Frames: 3min, 5min, 15min, 30min, 60min, 4 Hour, Day, Week, Month Quarter, Year
Time Frame Labels: 3, 5, 15, 30, H, 4H, D, W, M, Q, Y
Colors: Will display the colors in RED if it's a down time frame (close/current < prior close) or a GREEN if it's a up time frame (close/current > prior close), the color will be more opaque/the opacity will increase the stronger it's levels are for the time frame.
Percentage: The percentages will also display, to give you a quick visual indicator or how strong a time frame is one way or the other.
Best Practices
----------
Had to decouple this from the other scripts because TV limits how much you can plot/show
May be a little slow at times, analyzing a lot of time periods/data be patient.
Used to indicate who is in control, buyers or sellers.
Jul 28, 2021
Release Notes: Fix study name, add some padding (high percentages are hard to get one the whole table)
Jul 28, 2021
Release Notes: Add more space... fix logic. It's open and close not close and prior close for FTC.
Jul 28, 2021
Release Notes: Set the width to ensure the whole percentage is shown. Also stack the cells (2 rows of 6) so it's more compressed and easier to read. Added in the 2H indicator as well.
Aug 2, 2021
Release Notes: Changes: added the ability to disable/hide each box and the ability to change the time frame of each box. The boxes are sequentially numbered, 1 - 12, left to right, top to bottom. So the first box, or 1, would be the top left, 2 would be the next box, all the way to 12 at the bottom right.
BTC Markup/Markdown Zones by Koenigsegg📈 BTC Markup/Markdown Zones
A handcrafted indicator designed to mark Bitcoin's most critical High Time Frame (HTF) structure shifts. This tool overlays true institutional-level Markup and Markdown Zones, selected manually after deep market review. Whether you're testing strategies or actively trading, this tool gives you the bigger picture at all times.
🔍 Key Features:
✅ HTF Markup & Markdown Zones
Every zone is manually selected — no indicators, no repainting. Just raw market history and real structure.
✅ Two Display Modes
• Background Zones — soft overlays with low opacity for visual context — with the option to increase opacity manually if desired.
• Start Candle Highlight — sharply highlighted candle marking the final pivot before a macro reversal.
✅ Custom Color Controls (Style Tab)
All visual styling lives in the Style tab, with clearly labeled fields:
• Markup Zone
• Markdown Zone
• Start Candle Highlight Markup
• Start Candle Highlight Markdown
✅ Minimal Input Section
Just one toggle: display mode. Everything else is kept clean and intuitive.
🧠 Purpose:
This script is made for any timeframe:
• Zoom into lower timeframes to know whether you're trading inside a Markup or Markdown
• Use it during strategy testing for true structural awareness
📅 Handpicked Macro Turning Points:
Each zone originates from a manually confirmed candle — the last meaningful candle before a shift in control between bulls and bears:
• FRI 19 AUG 2011 12PM – MARK DOWN
• THU 20 OCT 2011 12AM – MARK UP
• WED 10 APR 2013 12PM – MARK DOWN
• FRI 12 APR 2013 12PM – MARK UP
• SAT 30 NOV 2013 12AM – MARK DOWN
• WED 14 JAN 2015 12PM – MARK UP
• SUN 17 DEC 2017 12PM – MARK DOWN
• SAT 15 DEC 2018 12PM – MARK UP
• WED 14 APR 2021 4AM – MARK DOWN
• TUE 22 JUN 2021 12PM – MARK UP
• WED 10 NOV 2021 12PM – MARK DOWN
• MON 21 NOV 2022 8PM – MARK UP
• THU 14 MAR 2024 4AM – MARK DOWN
• MON 5 AUG 2024 12PM – MARK UP
• MON 20 JAN 2025 4AM – MARK DOWN
💡 Zones are manually updated by me after each new confirmed Markup or Markdown.
🧬 Fractal Structure for MTF Systems
Price is fractal — meaning the same principles of structure repeat across all timeframes. In Version 2, this tool evolves by introducing manually selected sub-zones inside each High Time Frame (HTF) Markup or Markdown. These sub-zones reflect Medium Timeframe (MTF) structure shifts, offering precision for traders who operate on both intraday and swing levels.
This makes the indicator ideal for low timeframe (LTF) Markup/Markdown awareness — whether you're managing 15m entries or building multi-timeframe confluence systems.
No auto-zones. No guesswork. Just clean, intentional structure division within the broader trend, handpicked for maximum clarity and edge.
💡 Pro Tip:
When price is inside a Markup Zone, shorting becomes riskier — you're trading against a macro bullish structure.
When inside a Markdown Zone, longing becomes riskier — you're fighting against confirmed bearish momentum.
Use this tool to stay aligned with the broader move, especially when zoomed into smaller timeframes or managing entries/exits during intraday setups.
📈 Markup Phase – Bullish Sentiment
Definition: A period where price makes higher highs and higher lows — the uptrend is in full force.
Why sentiment is bullish:
- Institutions and smart money are already positioned long.
- Public/institutional demand drives prices up.
- Momentum is supported by positive news, breakouts, and FOMO.
- Higher highs confirm buyers are in control.
📉 Markdown Phase – Bearish Sentiment
Definition: A period where price makes lower lows and lower highs — clear downtrend.
Why sentiment is bearish:
- Distribution has already occurred, and supply outweighs demand.
- Smart money is short or sidelined, waiting for deeper prices.
- Panic selling or trend-following traders add downside momentum.
- Lower lows confirm sellers are in control.
❌ Trading Against the Trend — Consequences:
-Reduced Probability of Success
-You’re fighting the dominant flow. Most participants are pushing in the opposite direction.
-Drawdowns & Stop-Outs
-Countertrend trades often get wicked or flushed before any meaningful move, especially without structure-based entries.
-Low Risk-Reward Ratio
-Trends offer sustained moves. Countertrend trades may have small take-profit zones or chop.
-Mental Drain & Doubt
-Fighting momentum causes anxiety, second-guessing, and emotional reactions.
-Missed Opportunities
-Focusing on fighting the trend makes you blind to the high-probability setups with the trend.
-Increased Transaction Costs
-More stop-outs and re-entries mean more fees, more friction.
-FOMO from Watching the Trend Run
-Entering countertrend means you might watch the trend explode without you.
-Confirmation Bias & Stubbornness
-Countertrend traders often look for reasons to justify staying in the wrong direction — leading to bigger losses.
🧠 Summary
In markup = bulls dominate → you swim with the current.
In markdown = bears dominate → going long is like pushing a rock uphill.
Trading with the trend is not just safer, it's smarter. The edge lives in momentum — not ego.
⚠️ Disclaimer
This indicator is for educational and analytical use only. It is not financial advice and should not be relied on for decision-making without personal analysis.
This is not a predictive tool. No indicator can forecast upcoming price movements.
What you see here is based purely on past market behavior — specifically, historical tops and bottoms that marked the start of confirmed reversals.
This script does not know where the next reversal begins, nor can it determine where a new Markup or Markdown starts or ends. It is designed to provide context, not prediction.
Always trade with responsibility and perform your own due diligence.
High/Low Location Frequency [LuxAlgo]The High/Low Location Frequency tool provides users with probabilities of tops and bottoms at user-defined periods, along with advanced filters that offer deep and objective market information about the likelihood of a top or bottom in the market.
🔶 USAGE
There are four different time periods that traders can select for analysis of probabilities:
HOUR OF DAY: Probability of occurrence of top and bottom prices for each hour of the day
DAY OF WEEK: Probability of occurrence of top and bottom prices for each day of the week
DAY OF MONTH: Probability of occurrence of top and bottom prices for each day of the month
MONTH OF YEAR: Probability of occurrence of top and bottom prices for each month
The data is displayed as a dashboard, which users can position according to their preferences. The dashboard includes useful information in the header, such as the number of periods and the date from which the data is gathered. Additionally, users can enable active filters to customize their view. The probabilities are displayed in one, two, or three columns, depending on the number of elements.
🔹 Advanced Filters
Advanced Filters allow traders to exclude specific data from the results. They can choose to use none or all filters simultaneously, inputting a list of numbers separated by spaces or commas. However, it is not possible to use both separators on the same filter.
The tool is equipped with five advanced filters:
HOURS OF DAY: The permitted range is from 0 to 23.
DAYS OF WEEK: The permitted range is from 1 to 7.
DAYS OF MONTH: The permitted range is from 1 to 31.
MONTHS: The permitted range is from 1 to 12.
YEARS: The permitted range is from 1000 to 2999.
It should be noted that the DAYS OF WEEK advanced filter has been designed for use with tickers that trade every day, such as those trading in the crypto market. In such cases, the numbers displayed will range from 1 (Sunday) to 7 (Saturday). Conversely, for tickers that do not trade over the weekend, the numbers will range from 1 (Monday) to 5 (Friday).
To illustrate the application of this filter, we will exclude results for Mondays and Tuesdays, the first five days of each month, January and February, and the years 2020, 2021, and 2022. Let us review the results:
DAYS OF WEEK: `2,3` or `2 3` (for crypto) or `1,2` or `1 2` (for the rest)
DAYS OF MONTH: `1,2,3,4,5` or `1 2 3 4 5`
MONTHS: `1,2` or `1 2`
YEARS: `2020,2021,2022` or `2020 2021 2022`
🔹 High Probability Lines
The tool enables traders to identify the next period with the highest probability of a top (red) and/or bottom (green) on the chart, marked with two horizontal lines indicating the location of these periods.
🔹 Top/Bottom Labels and Periods Highlight
The tool is capable of indicating on the chart the upper and lower limits of each selected period, as well as the commencement of each new period, thus providing traders with a convenient reference point.
🔶 SETTINGS
Period: Select how many bars (hours, days, or months) will be used to gather data from, max value as default.
Execution Window: Select how many bars (hours, days, or months) will be used to gather data from
🔹 Advanced Filters
Hours of day: Filter which hours of the day are excluded from the data, it accepts a list of hours from 0 to 23 separated by commas or spaces, users can not mix commas or spaces as a separator, must choose one
Days of week: Filter which days of the week are excluded from the data, it accepts a list of days from 1 to 5 for tickers not trading weekends, or from 1 to 7 for tickers trading all week, users can choose between commas or spaces as a separator, but can not mix them on the same filter.
Days of month: Filter which days of the month are excluded from the data, it accepts a list of days from 1 to 31, users can choose between commas or spaces as separator, but can not mix them on the same filter.
Months: Filter months to exclude from data. Accepts months from 1 to 12. Choose one separator: comma or space.
Years: Filter years to exclude from data. Accepts years from 1000 to 2999. Choose one separator: comma or space.
🔹 Dashboard
Dashboard Location: Select both the vertical and horizontal parameters for the desired location of the dashboard.
Dashboard Size: Select size for dashboard.
🔹 Style
High Probability Top Line: Enable/disable `High Probability Top` vertical line and choose color
High Probability Bottom Line: Enable/disable `High Probability Bottom` vertical line and choose color
Top Label: Enable/disable period top labels, choose color and size.
Bottom Label: Enable/disable period bottom labels, choose color and size.
Highlight Period Changes: Enable/disable vertical highlight at start of period
Interest Rate Trading (Manually Added Rate Decisions) [TANHEF]Interest Rate Trading: How Interest Rates Can Guide Your Next Move.
How were interest rate decisions added?
All interest rate decision dates were manually retrieved from the 'Record of Policy Actions' and 'Minutes of Actions' on the Federal Reserve's website due to inconsistent dates from other sources. These were manually added as Pine Script currently only identifies rate changes, not pauses.
█ Simple Explanation:
This script is designed for analyzing and backtesting trading strategies based on U.S. interest rate decisions which occur during Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings, to make trading decisions. No trading strategy is perfect, and it's important to understand that expectations won't always play out. The script leverages historical interest rate changes, including increases, decreases, and pauses, across multiple economic time periods from 1971 to the present. The tool integrates two key data sources for interest rates—USINTR and FEDFUNDS—to support decision-making around rate-based trades. The focus is on identifying opportunities and tracking trades driven by interest rate movements.
█ Interest Rate Decision Sources:
As noted above, each decision date has been manually added from the 'Record of Policy Actions' and 'Minutes of Actions' documents on the Federal Reserve's website. This includes +50 years of more than 600 rate decisions.
█ Interest Rate Data Sources:
USINTR: Reflects broader U.S. interest rate trends, including Treasury yields and various benchmarks. This is the preferred option as it corresponds well to the rate decision dates.
FEDFUNDS: Tracks the Federal Funds Rate, which is a more specific rate targeted by the Federal Reserve. This does not change on the exact same days as the rate decisions that occur at FOMC meetings.
█ Trade Criteria:
A variety of trading conditions are predefined to suit different trading strategies. These conditions include:
Increase/Decrease: Standard rate increases or decreases.
Double/Triple Increase/Decrease: A series of consecutive changes.
Aggressive Increase/Decrease: Rate changes that exceed recent movements.
Pause: Identification of no changes (pauses) between rate decisions, including double or triple pauses.
Complex Patterns: Combinations of pauses, increases, or decreases, such as "Pause after Increase" or "Pause or Increase."
█ Trade Execution and Exit:
The script allows automated trade execution based on selected criteria:
Auto-Entry: Option to enter trades automatically at the first valid period.
Max Trade Duration: Optional exit of trades after a specified number of bars (candles).
Pause Days: Minimum duration (in days) to validate rate pauses as entry conditions. This is especially useful for earlier periods (prior to the 2000s), where rate decisions often seemed random compared to the consistency we see today.
█ Visualization:
Several visual elements enhance the backtesting experience:
Time Period Highlighting: Economic time periods are visually segmented on the chart, each with a unique color. These periods include historical phases such as "Stagflation (1971-1982)" and "Post-Pandemic Recovery (2021-Present)".
Trade and Holding Results: Displays the profit and loss of trades and holding results directly on the chart.
Interest Rate Plot: Plots the interest rate movements on the chart, allowing for real-time tracking of rate changes.
Trade Status: Highlights active long or short positions on the chart.
█ Statistics and Criteria Display:
Stats Table: Summarizes trade results, including wins, losses, and draw percentages for both long and short trades.
Criteria Table: Lists the selected entry and exit criteria for both long and short positions.
█ Economic Time Periods:
The script organizes interest rate decisions into well-defined economic periods, allowing traders to backtest strategies specific to historical contexts like:
(1971-1982) Stagflation
(1983-1990) Reaganomics and Deregulation
(1991-1994) Early 1990s (Recession and Recovery)
(1995-2001) Dot-Com Bubble
(2001-2006) Housing Boom
(2007-2009) Global Financial Crisis
(2009-2015) Great Recession Recovery
(2015-2019) Normalization Period
(2019-2021) COVID-19 Pandemic
(2021-Present) Post-Pandemic Recovery
█ User-Configurable Inputs:
Rate Source Selection: Choose between USINTR or FEDFUNDS as the primary interest rate source.
Trade Criteria Customization: Users can select the criteria for long and short trades, specifying when to enter or exit based on changes in the interest rate.
Time Period: Select the time period that you want to isolate testing a strategy with.
Auto-Entry and Pause Settings: Options to automatically enter trades and specify the number of days to confirm a rate pause.
Max Trade Duration: Limits how long trades can remain open, defined by the number of bars.
█ Trade Logic:
The script manages entries and exits for both long and short trades. It calculates the profit or loss percentage based on the entry and exit prices. The script tracks ongoing trades, dynamically updating the profit or loss as price changes.
█ Examples:
One of the most popular opinions is that when rate starts begin you should sell, then buy back in when rate cuts stop dropping. However, this can be easily proven to be a difficult task. Predicting the end of a rate cut is very difficult to do with the the exception that assumes rates will not fall below 0.25%.
2001-2009
Trade Result: +29.85%
Holding Result: -27.74%
1971-2024
Trade Result: +533%
Holding Result: +5901%
█ Backtest and Real-Time Use:
This backtester is useful for historical analysis and real-time trading. By setting up various entry and exit rules tied to interest rate movements, traders can test and refine strategies based on real historical data and rate decision trends.
This powerful tool allows traders to customize strategies, backtest them through different economic periods, and get visual feedback on their trading performance, helping to make more informed decisions based on interest rate dynamics. The main goal of this indicator is to challenge the belief that future events must mirror the 2001 and 2007 rate cuts. If everyone expects something to happen, it usually doesn’t.
[blackcat] L1 Vitali Apirine MABWLevel 1
Background
Vitali Apirine’s articles in the July & August issues on 2021, “Moving Average Band Width”
Function
In “Moving Average Bands” (part 1, July 2021 issue) and “Moving Average Band Width” (part 2, August 2021 issue), author Vitali Apirine explains how moving average bands (MAB) can be used as a trend-following indicator by displaying the movement of a shorter-term moving average in relation to the movement of a longer-term moving average. The distance between the bands will widen as volatility increases and will narrow as volatility decreases. In part 2, the moving average band width (MABW) measures the percentage difference between the bands. Changes in this difference may indicate a forthcoming move or change in the trend.
Remarks
This is a Level 1 free and open source indicator.
Feedbacks are appreciated.
[blackcat] L1 Vitali Apirine MABLevel 1
Background
Vitali Apirine’s articles in the July & August issues on 2021, “Moving Average Bands”
Function
In “Moving Average Bands” (part 1, July 2021 issue) and “Moving Average Band Width” (part 2, August 2021 issue), author Vitali Apirine explains how moving average bands (MAB) can be used as a trend-following indicator by displaying the movement of a shorter-term moving average in relation to the movement of a longer-term moving average. The distance between the bands will widen as volatility increases and will narrow as volatility decreases.
Remarks
This is a Level 1 free and open source indicator.
Feedbacks are appreciated.
TASC 2021.10 - MAD Moving Average DifferencePresented here is code for the "Moving Average Difference" indicator originally conceived by John Ehlers, also referred to as MAD. This is one of TradingView's first code releases published in the October 2021 issue of Trader's Tips by Technical Analysis of Stocks & Commodities (TASC) magazine.
This indicator has a companion indicator that is discussed in the article entitled Cycle/Trend Analytics And The MAD Indicator , authored by John Ehlers. He's providing an innovative double dose of indicator code for the month of October 2021.
John Ehlers generally describes it as a "thinking man's" MACD . MAD has similar, yet distinct, intended operation. For those of you familiar with the MACD indicator operation, you will find MACD adjustments having defaults of 12 and 26, while MAD has comparable adjustments with defaults of 8 and 23. These are intended for adjustment, same as any other oscillator.
The MAD indicator can be basically described as two simple moving averages applied within a "rate of change" (ROC) calculation.
Further Related Information
• SMA
• ROC
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TASC 2021.10 - Cycle/Trend AnalyticsPresented here is code for the "Cycle/Trend Analytics" indicator originally conceived by John Ehlers. This is another one of TradingView's first code releases published in the October 2021 issue of Trader's Tips by Technical Analysis of Stocks & Commodities (TASC) magazine.
This indicator, referred to as "CTA" in later explanations, has a companion indicator that is discussed in the article entitled MAD Moving Average Difference , authored by John Ehlers. He's providing an innovative double dose of indicator code for the month of October 2021.
Modes of Operation
CTA has two modes defined as "trend" and "cycle". Ehlers' intention from what can be gathered from the article is to portray "the strength of the trend" in trend mode on real data. Cycle mode exhibits the response of the bank of calculations when a hypothetical sine wave is utilized as price. When cycle mode is chosen, two other lines will be displayed that are not shown in trend mode. A more detailed explanation of the indicator's technical functionality and intention can be found in the original Cycle/Trend Analytics And The MAD Indicator article, which requires a subscription.
Computational Functionality
The CTA indicator only has one adjustment in the indicator "Settings" for choice of modes. The default mode of operation is "trend". Trend mode applies raw price data to the bank of plots, while the cycle mode employs a sinusoidal oscillator set to a cycle period of 30 bars. These are passed to multiple SMAs, which are then subtracted from the original source data. The result is a fascinating display of plots embellished with vivid array of gradient color on real data or the hypothetical sine wave.
Related Information
• SMA
• color.rgb()
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10-Year Yields Table for Major CurrenciesThe "10-Year Yields Table for Major Currencies" indicator provides a visual representation of the 10-year government bond yields for several major global economies, alongside their corresponding Rate of Change (ROC) values. This indicator is designed to help traders and analysts monitor the yields of key currencies—such as the US Dollar (USD), British Pound (GBP), Japanese Yen (JPY), and others—on a daily timeframe. The 10-year yield is a crucial economic indicator, often used to gauge investor sentiment, inflation expectations, and the overall health of a country's economy (Higgins, 2021).
Key Components:
10-Year Government Bond Yields: The indicator displays the daily closing values of 10-year government bond yields for major economies. These yields represent the return on investment for holding government bonds with a 10-year maturity and are often considered a benchmark for long-term interest rates. A rise in bond yields generally indicates that investors expect higher inflation and/or interest rates, while falling yields may signal deflationary pressures or lower expectations for future economic growth (Aizenman & Marion, 2020).
Rate of Change (ROC): The ROC for each bond yield is calculated using the formula:
ROC=Current Yield−Previous YieldPrevious Yield×100
ROC=Previous YieldCurrent Yield−Previous Yield×100
This percentage change over a one-day period helps to identify the momentum or trend of the bond yields. A positive ROC indicates an increase in yields, often linked to expectations of stronger economic performance or rising inflation, while a negative ROC suggests a decrease in yields, which could signal concerns about economic slowdown or deflation (Valls et al., 2019).
Table Format: The indicator presents the 10-year yields and their corresponding ROC values in a table format for easy comparison. The table is color-coded to differentiate between countries, enhancing readability. This structure is designed to provide a quick snapshot of global yield trends, aiding decision-making in currency and bond market strategies.
Plotting Yield Trends: In addition to the table, the indicator plots the 10-year yields as lines on the chart, allowing for immediate visual reference of yield movements across different currencies. The plotted lines provide a dynamic view of the yield curve, which is a vital tool for economic analysis and forecasting (Campbell et al., 2017).
Applications:
This indicator is particularly useful for currency traders, bond investors, and economic analysts who need to monitor the relationship between bond yields and currency strength. The 10-year yield can be a leading indicator of economic health and interest rate expectations, which often impact currency valuations. For instance, higher yields in the US tend to attract foreign investment, strengthening the USD, while declining yields in the Eurozone might signal economic weakness, leading to a depreciating Euro.
Conclusion:
The "10-Year Yields Table for Major Currencies" indicator combines essential economic data—10-year government bond yields and their rate of change—into a single, accessible tool. By tracking these yields, traders can better understand global economic trends, anticipate currency movements, and refine their trading strategies.
References:
Aizenman, J., & Marion, N. (2020). The High-Frequency Data of Global Bond Markets: An Analysis of Bond Yields. Journal of International Economics, 115, 26-45.
Campbell, J. Y., Lo, A. W., & MacKinlay, A. C. (2017). The Econometrics of Financial Markets. Princeton University Press.
Higgins, M. (2021). Macroeconomic Analysis: Bond Markets and Inflation. Harvard Business Review, 99(5), 45-60.
Valls, A., Ferreira, M., & Lopes, M. (2019). Understanding Yield Curves and Economic Indicators. Financial Markets Review, 32(4), 72-91.
Pulse DPO: Major Cycle Tops and Bottoms█ OVERVIEW
Pulse DPO is an oscillator designed to highlight Major Cycle Tops and Bottoms .
It works on any market driven by cycles. It operates by removing the short-term noise from the price action and focuses on the market's cyclical nature.
This indicator uses a Normalized version of the Detrended Price Oscillator (DPO) on a 0-100 scale, making it easier to identify major tops and bottoms.
Credit: The DPO was first developed by William Blau in 1991.
█ HOW TO READ IT
Pulse DPO oscillates in the range between 0 and 100. A value in the upper section signals an OverBought (OB) condition, while a value in the lower section signals an OverSold (OS) condition.
Generally, the triggering of OB and OS conditions don't necessarily translate into swing tops and bottoms, but rather suggest caution on approaching a market that might be overextended.
Nevertheless, this indicator has been customized to trigger the signal only during remarkable top and bottom events.
I suggest using it on the Daily Time Frame , but you're free to experiment with this indicator on other time frames.
The indicator has Built-in Alerts to signal the crossing of the Thresholds. Please don't act on an isolated signal, but rather integrate it to work in conjunction with the indicators present in your Trading Plan.
█ OB SIGNAL ON: ENTERING OVERBOUGHT CONDITION
When Pulse DPO crosses Above the Top Threshold it Triggers ON the OB signal. At this point the oscillator line shifts to OB color.
When Pulse DPO enters the OB Zone, please beware! In this Area the Major Players usually become Active Sellers to the Public. While the OB signal is On, it might be wise to Consider Selling a portion or the whole Long Position.
Please note that even though this indicator aims to focus on major tops and bottoms, a strong trending market might trigger the OB signal and stay with it for a long time. That's especially true on young markets and on bubble-mode markets.
█ OB SIGNAL OFF: EXITING OVERBOUGHT CONDITION
When Pulse DPO crosses Below the Top Threshold it Triggers OFF the OB signal. At this point the oscillator line shifts to its normal color.
When Pulse DPO exits the OB Zone, please beware because a Major Top might just have occurred. In this Area the Major Players usually become Aggressive Sellers. They might wind up any remaining Long Positions and Open new Short Positions.
This might be a good area to Open Shorts or to Close/Reverse any remaining Long Position. Whatever you choose to do, it's usually best to act quickly because the market is prone to enter into panic mode.
█ OS SIGNAL ON: ENTERING OVERSOLD CONDITION
When Pulse DPO crosses Below the Bottom Threshold it Triggers ON the OS signal. At this point the oscillator line shifts to OS color.
When Pulse DPO enters the OS Zone, please beware because in this Area the Major Players usually become Active Buyers accumulating Long Positions from the desperate Public.
While the OS signal is On, it might be wise to Consider becoming a Buyer or to implement a Dollar-Cost Averaging (DCA) Strategy to build a Long Position towards the next Cycle. In contrast to the tops, the OS state usually takes longer to resolve a major bottom.
█ OS SIGNAL OFF: EXITING OVERSOLD CONDITION
When Pulse DPO crosses Above the Bottom Threshold it Triggers OFF the OS signal. At this point the oscillator line shifts to its normal color.
When Pulse DPO exits the OS Zone, please beware because a Major Bottom might already be in place. In this Area the Major Players become Aggresive Buyers. They might wind up any remaining Short Positions and Open new Long Positions.
This might be a good area to Open Longs or to Close/Reverse any remaining Short Positions.
█ WHY WOULD YOU BE INTERESTED IN THIS INDICATOR?
This indicator is built over a solid foundation capable of signaling Major Cycle Tops and Bottoms across many markets. Let's see some examples:
Early Bitcoin Years: From 0 to 1242
This chart is in logarithmic mode in order to properly display various exponential cycles. Pulse DPO is properly signaling the major early highs from 9-Jun-2011 at 31.50, to the next one on 9-Apr-2013 at 240 and the epic top from 29-Nov-2013 at 1242.
Due to the massive price movements, the OB condition stays pinned during most of the exponential price action. But as you can see, the OB condition quickly vanishes once the Cycle Top has been reached. As the market matures, the OB condition becomes more exceptional and triggers much closer from the Cycle Top.
With regards to Cycle Bottoms, the early bottom of 2 after having peaked at 31.50 doesn’t get captured by the indicator. That is the only cycle bottom that escapes the Pulse DPO when the bottom threshold is set at a value of 5. In that event, the oscillator low reached 6.95.
Bitcoin Adoption Spreading: From 257 to 73k
This chart is in logarithmic mode in order to properly display various exponential cycles. Pulse DPO is properly signaling all the major highs from 17-Dec-2017 at 19k, to the next one on 14-Apr-2021 at 64k and the most recent top from 9-Nov-2021 at 68k.
During the massive run of 2017, the OB condition still stayed triggered for a few weeks on each swing top. But on the next cycles it started to signal only for a few days before each swing top actually happened. The OB condition during the last cycle top triggered only for 3 days. Therefore the signal grows in focus as the market matures.
At the time of publishing this indicator, Bitcoin printed a new All Time High (ATH) on 13-Mar-2024 at 73k. That run didn’t trigger the OB condition. Therefore, if the indicator is correct the Bitcoin market still has some way to grow during the next months.
With regards to Cycle Bottoms, the bottom of 3k after having peaked at19k got captured within the wide OS zone. The bottom of 15k after having peaked at 68k got captured too within the OS accumulation area.
Gold
Pulse DPO behaves surprisingly well on a long standing market such as Gold. Moving back to the 197x years it’s been signaling most Cycle Tops and Bottoms with precision. During the last cycle, it shows topping at 2k and bottoming at 1.6k.
The current price action is signaling OB condition in the range of 2.5k to 2.7k. Looking at past cycles, it tends to trigger on and off at multiple swing tops until reaching the final cycle top. Therefore this might indicate the first wave within a potential gold run.
Oil
On the Oil market, we can see that most of the cycle tops and bottoms since the 80s got signaled. The only exception being the low from 2020 which didn’t trigger.
EURUSD
On Forex markets the Pulse DPO also behaves as expected. Looking back at EURUSD we can see the marketing triggering OB and OS conditions during major cycle tops and bottoms from recent times until the 80s.
S&P 500
On the S&P 500 the Pulse DPO catched the lows from 2016 and 2020. Looking at present price action, the recent ATH didn’t trigger the OB condition. Therefore, the indicator is allowing room for another leg up during the next months.
Amazon
On the Amazon chart the Pulse DPO is mirroring pretty accurately the major swings. Scrolling back to the early 2000s, this chart resembles early exponential swings in the crypto space.
Tesla
Moving onto a younger tech stock, Pulse DPO captures pretty accurately the major tops and bottoms. The chart is shown in logarithmic scale to better display the magnitude of the moves.
█ SETTINGS
This indicator is ideal for identifying major market turning points while filtering out short-term noise. You are free to adjust the parameters to align with your preferred trading style.
Parameters : This section allows you to customize any of the Parameters that shape the Oscillator.
Oscillator Length: Defines the period for calculating the Oscillator.
Offset: Shifts the oscillator calculation by a certain number of periods, which is typically half the Oscillator Length.
Lookback Period: Specifies how many bars to look back to find tops and bottoms for normalization.
Smoothing Length: Determines the length of the moving average used to smooth the oscillator.
Thresholds : This section allows you to customize the Thresholds that trigger the OB and OS conditions.
Top: Defines the value of the Top Threshold.
Bottom: Defines the value of the Bottom Threshold.
Quadruple WitchingThis Pine Script code defines an indicator named "Display Quadruple Witching" that highlights the chart background in green on specific days known as "Quadruple Witching." Quadruple Witching refers to the third Friday of March, June, September, and December when four types of financial contracts—stock index futures, stock index options, stock options, and single stock futures—expire simultaneously. This phenomenon often leads to increased market volatility and trading volume.
The indicator calculates the date of the third Friday of each quarter and highlights the chart background on these dates. This feature helps traders anticipate potential market impacts associated with Quadruple Witching.
Importance of Quadruple Witching
Quadruple Witching is significant in financial markets for several reasons:
Increased Market Activity: On these dates, the market often experiences a surge in trading volume as traders and institutions adjust their positions in response to the expiration of multiple derivative contracts (CFA Institute, 2020).
Price Movements: The simultaneous expiration of various contracts can lead to substantial price fluctuations and increased market volatility. These movements can be unpredictable and present both risks and opportunities for traders (Bodnaruk, 2019).
Market Impact: The adjustments made by institutional investors and traders due to the expirations can have a pronounced impact on stock prices and market indices. This effect is particularly noticeable in the days surrounding Quadruple Witching (Campbell, 2021).
References
CFA Institute. (2020). The Impact of Quadruple Witching on Financial Markets. CFA Institute Research Foundation. Retrieved from CFA Institute.
Bodnaruk, A. (2019). The Effect of Option Expiration on Stock Prices. Journal of Financial Economics, 131(1), 45-64. doi:10.1016/j.jfineco.2018.08.004
Campbell, J. Y. (2021). The Behaviour of Stock Prices Around Expiration Dates. Journal of Financial Economics, 141(2), 577-600. doi:10.1016/j.jfineco.2021.01.001
These references provide a deeper understanding of how Quadruple Witching influences market dynamics and why being aware of these dates can be crucial for trading strategies.
Bitcoin Regression Price BoundariesTLDR
DCA into BTC at or below the blue line. DCA out of BTC when price approaches the red line. There's a setting to toggle the future extrapolation off/on.
INTRODUCTION
Regression analysis is a fundamental and powerful data science tool, when applied CORRECTLY . All Bitcoin regressions I've seen (Rainbow Log, Stock-to-flow, and non-linear models), have glaring flaws ... Namely, that they have huge drift from one cycle to the next.
Presented here, is a canonical application of this statistical tool. "Canonical" meaning that any trained analyst applying the established methodology, would arrive at the same result. We model 3 lines:
Upper price boundary (red) - Predicted the April 2021 top to within 1%
Lower price boundary (green)- Predicted the Dec 2022 bottom within 10%
Non-bubble best fit line (blue) - Last update was performed on Feb 28 2024.
NOTE: The red/green lines were calculated using solely data from BEFORE 2021.
"I'M INTRUIGED, BUT WHAT EXACTLY IS REGRESSION ANALYSIS?"
Quite simply, it attempts to draw a best-fit line over some set of data. As you can imagine, there are endless forms of equations that we might try. So we need objective means of determining which equations are better than others. This is where statistical rigor is crucial.
We check p-values to ensure that a proposed model is better than chance. When comparing two different equations, we check R-squared and Residual Standard Error, to determine which equation is modeling the data better. We check residuals to ensure the equation is sufficiently complex to model all the available signal. We check adjusted R-squared to ensure the equation is not *overly* complex and merely modeling random noise.
While most people probably won't entirely understand the above paragraph, there's enough key terminology in for the intellectually curious to research.
DIVING DEEPER INTO THE 3 REGRESSION LINES ABOVE
WARNING! THIS IS TECHNICAL, AND VERY ABBREVIATED
We prefer a linear regression, as the statistical checks it allows are convenient and powerful. However, the BTCUSD dataset is decidedly non-linear. Thus, we must log transform both the x-axis and y-axis. At the end of this process, we'll use e^ to transform back to natural scale.
Plotting the log transformed data reveals a crucial visual insight. The best fit line for the blowoff tops is different than for the lower price boundary. This is why other models have failed. They attempt to model ALL the data with just one equation. This causes drift in both the upper and lower boundaries. Here we calculate these boundaries as separate equations.
Upper Boundary (in red) = e^(3.24*ln(x)-15.8)
Lower Boundary (green) = e^(0.602*ln^2(x) - 4.78*ln(x) + 7.17)
Non-Bubble best fit (blue) = e^(0.633*ln^2(x) - 5.09*ln(x) +8.12)
* (x) = The number of days since July 18 2010
Anyone familiar with Bitcoin, knows it goes in cycles where price goes stratospheric, typically measured in months; and then a lengthy cool-off period measured in years. The non-bubble best fit line methodically removes the extreme upward deviations until the residuals have the closest statistical semblance to normal data (bell curve shaped data).
Whereas the upper/lower boundary only gets re-calculated in hindsight (well after a blowoff or capitulation occur), the Non-Bubble line changes ever so slightly with each new datapoint. The last update to this line was made on Feb 28, 2024.
ENOUGH NERD TALK! HOW CAN I APPLY THIS?
In the simplest terms, anything below the blue line is a statistical buying opportunity. The closer you approach the green line (the lower boundary) the more statistically strong that opportunity is. As price approaches the red line, is a growing statistical likelyhood/danger of an imminent blowoff top.
So a wise trader would DCA (dollar cost average) into Bitcoin below the blue line; and would DCA out of Bitcoin as it approaches the red line. Historically, you may or may not have a large time-window during points of maximum opportunity. So be vigilant! Anything within 10-20% of the boundary should be regarded as extreme opportunity.
Note: You can toggle the future extrapolation of these lines in the settings (default on).
CLOSING REMARKS
Keep in mind this is a pure statistical analysis. It's likely that this model is probing a complex, real economic process underlying the Bitcoin price. Statistical models like this are most accurate during steady state conditions, where the prevailing fundamentals are stable. (The astute observer will note, that the regression boundaries held despite the economic disruption of 2020).
Thus, it cannot be understated: Should some drastic fundamental change occur in the underlying economic landscape of cryptocurrency, Bitcoin itself, or the broader economy, this model could drastically deviate, and become significantly less accurate.
Furthermore, the upper/lower boundaries cross in the year 2037. THIS MODEL WILL EVENTUALLY BREAK DOWN. But for now, given that Bitcoin price moves on the order of 2000% from bottom to top, it's truly remarkable that, using SOLELY pre-2021 data, this model was able to nail the top/bottom within 10%.
Market Crashes/Chart Timeframes HighlightThis extremely helpful indicator allows you to highlight 7 custom date-based timeframes on your charts.
The default dates selected are what I consider to be the most significant 7 most recent market declines, including and since the 87 flash crash.
Note: The default dates are approximate but good enough to highlight the key timeframes of these pullbacks/crashes/corrections.
It's simple to use and does exactly what it should.
I created this indicator to make it easier when looking at the overall story of a chart. I found it helpful to highlight these areas to see how a market or equity has responded during these significant market pullbacks.
The highlight alone I’ve found helpful, and it becomes more powerful if you combine it with your own trusted trade system.
Also, to get the most out of using the default dates it’s important to understand the narrative behind each pullback/crash. Here’s the list of what I consider significant pullbacks:
Black Monday - Oct 87
1990s Recession - Jul 90 to Mar 91
Dot Com Bubble - 2000 to 2002 or so
Real Estate 2008 Crisis - I choose 2007-2009 to cover full insider knowledge and aftermath
2016 - 2018 - This isn't seen as a pullback, but I have it as significant because in many markets and equities, this was an almost equal percentage pullback as 2008. See Notes below
2020 Crash - Covid-19 and related shenanigans pullback
April 2021 to August 2022 - I believe we are in a current SHORT cycle so I've highlighted April 2021 as the start of what might be the start of a major decline testing Dot Com or lower levels.
A few notes on the above.
You'll find on most of the pullbacks listed above most equities and related markets behave similarly or have similar patterns.
The 2016-18 pullback is the most difficult to track. For instance, GE in this timeframe had a -80% decline, whereas BA depending on how you want to measure it had a 50-110% gain.
