Investments/swing trading strategy for different assetsStop worrying about catching the lowest price, it's almost impossible!: with this trend-following strategy and protection from bearish phases, you will know how to enter the market properly to obtain benefits in the long term.
Backtesting context: 1899-11-01 to 2023-02-16 of SPX by Tvc. Commissions: 0.05% for each entry, 0.05% for each exit. Risk per trade: 2.5% of the total account
For this strategy, 5 indicators are used:
One Ema of 200 periods
Atr Stop loss indicator from Gatherio
Squeeze momentum indicator from LazyBear
Moving average convergence/divergence or Macd
Relative strength index or Rsi
Trade conditions:
There are three type of entries, one of them depends if we want to trade against a bearish trend or not.
---If we keep Against trend option deactivated, the rules for two type of entries are:---
First type of entry:
With the next rules, we will be able to entry in a pull back situation:
Squeeze momentum is under 0 line (red)
Close is above 200 Ema and close is higher than the past close
Histogram from macd is under 0 line and is higher than the past one
Once these rules are met, we enter into a buy position. Stop loss will be determined by atr stop loss (white point) and break even(blue point) by a risk/reward ratio of 1:1.
For closing this position: Squeeze momentum crosses over 0 and, until squeeze momentum crosses under 0, we close the position. Otherwise, we would have closed the position due to break even or stop loss.
Second type of entry:
With the next rules, we will not lose a possible bullish movement:
Close is above 200 Ema
Squeeze momentum crosses under 0 line
Once these rules are met, we enter into a buy position. Stop loss will be determined by atr stop loss (white point) and break even(blue point) by a risk/reward ratio of 1:1.
Like in the past type of entry, for closing this position: Squeeze momentum crosses over 0 and, until squeeze momentum crosses under 0, we close the position. Otherwise, we would have closed the position due to break even or stop loss.
---If we keep Against trend option activated, the rules are the same as the ones above, but with one more type of entry. This is more useful in weekly timeframes, but could also be used in daily time frame:---
Third type of entry:
Close is under 200 Ema
Squeeze momentum crosses under 0 line
Once these rules are met, we enter into a buy position. Stop loss will be determined by atr stop loss (white point) and break even(blue point) by a risk/reward ratio of 1:1.
Like in the past type of entries, for closing this position: Squeeze momentum crosses over 0 and, until squeeze momentum crosses under 0, we close the position. Otherwise, we would have closed the position due to break even or stop loss.
Risk management
For calculating the amount of the position you will use just a small percent of your initial capital for the strategy and you will use the atr stop loss for this.
Example: You have 1000 usd and you just want to risk 2,5% of your account, there is a buy signal at price of 4,000 usd. The stop loss price from atr stop loss is 3,900. You calculate the distance in percent between 4,000 and 3,900. In this case, that distance would be of 2.50%. Then, you calculate your position by this way: (initial or current capital * risk per trade of your account) / (stop loss distance).
Using these values on the formula: (1000*2,5%)/(2,5%) = 1000usd. It means, you have to use 1000 usd for risking 2.5% of your account.
We will use this risk management for applying compound interest.
In settings, with position amount calculator, you can enter the amount in usd of your account and the amount in percentage for risking per trade of the account. You will see this value in green color in the upper left corner that shows the amount in usd to use for risking the specific percentage of your account.
Script functions
Inside of settings, you will find some utilities for display atr stop loss, break evens, positions, signals, indicators, etc.
You will find the settings for risk management at the end of the script if you want to change something. But rebember, do not change values from indicators, the idea is to not over optimize the strategy.
If you want to change the initial capital for backtest the strategy, go to properties, and also enter the commisions of your exchange and slippage for more realistic results.
If you activate break even using rsi, when rsi crosses under overbought zone break even will be activated. This can work in some assets.
---Important: In risk managment you can find an option called "Use leverage ?", activate this if you want to backtest using leverage, which means that in case of not having enough money for risking the % determined by you of your account using your initial capital, you will use leverage for using the enough amount for risking that % of your acount in a buy position. Otherwise, the amount will be limited by your initial/current capital---
Some things to consider
USE UNDER YOUR OWN RISK. PAST RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT THE FUTURE.
DEPENDING OF % ACCOUNT RISK PER TRADE, YOU COULD REQUIRE LEVERAGE FOR OPEN SOME POSITIONS, SO PLEASE, BE CAREFULL AND USE CORRECTLY THE RISK MANAGEMENT
Do not forget to change commissions and other parameters related with back testing results!
Some assets and timeframes where the strategy has also worked:
BTCUSD : 4H, 1D, W
SPX (US500) : 4H, 1D, W
GOLD : 1D, W
SILVER : 1D, W
ETHUSD : 4H, 1D
DXY : 1D
AAPL : 4H, 1D, W
AMZN : 4H, 1D, W
META : 4H, 1D, W
(and others stocks)
BANKNIFTY : 4H, 1D, W
DAX : 1D, W
RUT : 1D, W
HSI : 1D, W
NI225 : 1D, W
USDCOP : 1D, W
ค้นหาในสคริปต์สำหรับ "11月1日是什么星座"
Hurst Spectral Analysis Oscillator"It is a true fact that any given time history of any event (including the price history of a stock) can always be considered as reproducible to any desired degree of accuracy by the process of algebraically summing a particular series of sine waves. This is intuitively evident if you start with a number of sine waves of differing frequencies, amplitudes, and phases, and then sum them up to get a new and more complex waveform." (Spectral Analysis chapter of J M Hurst's book, Profit Magic )
Background: A band-pass filter or bandpass filter is a device that passes frequencies within a certain range and rejects (attenuates) frequencies outside that range. Bandpass filters are widely used in wireless transmitters and receivers. Well-designed bandpass filters (having the optimum bandwidth) maximize the number of signal transmitters that can exist in a system while minimizing the interference or competition among signals. Outside of electronics and signal processing, other examples of the use of bandpass filters include atmospheric sciences, neuroscience, astronomy, economics, and finance.
About the indicator: This indicator will accept float/decimal length inputs to display a spectrum of 11 bandpass filters. The trader can select a single bandpass for analysis that includes future high/low predictions. The trader can also select which bandpasses contribute to a composite model of expected price action.
10 Statements to describe the 5 elements of Hurst's price-motion model:
Random events account for only 2% of the price change of the overall market and of individual issues.
National and world historical events influence the market to a negligible degree.
Foreseeable fundamental events account for about 75% of all price motion. The effect is smooth and slow changing.
Unforeseeable fundamental events influence price motion. They occur relatively seldom, but the effect can be large and must be guarded against.
Approximately 23% of all price motion is cyclic in nature and semi-predictable (basis of the "cyclic model").
Cyclicality in price motion consists of the sum of a number of (non-ideal) periodic cyclic "waves" or "fluctuations" (summation principle).
Summed cyclicality is a common factor among all stocks (commonality principle).
Cyclic component magnitude and duration fluctuate slowly with the passage of time. In the course of such fluctuations, the greater the magnitude, the longer the duration and vice-versa (variation principle).
Principle of nominality: an element of commonality from which variation is expected.
The greater the nominal duration of a cyclic component, the larger the nominal magnitude (principle of proportionality).
Shoutouts & Credits for all the raw code, helpful information, ideas & collaboration, conversations together, introductions, indicator feedback, and genuine/selfless help:
🏆 @TerryPascoe
🏅 DavidF at Sigma-L, and @HPotter
👏 @Saviolis, parisboy, and @upslidedown
Strategy Myth-Busting #11 - TrendMagic+SqzMom+CDV - [MYN]This is part of a new series we are calling "Strategy Myth-Busting" where we take open public manual trading strategies and automate them. The goal is to not only validate the authenticity of the claims but to provide an automated version for traders who wish to trade autonomously.
Our 11th one is an automated version of the "Magic Trading Strategy : Most Profitable Indicator : 1 Minute Scalping Strategy Crypto" strategy from "Fx MENTOR US" who doesn't make any official claims but given the indicators he was using, it looked like on the surface that this might actually work. The strategy author uses this on the 1 minute and 3 minute timeframes on mostly FOREX and Heiken Ashi candles but as the title of his strategy indicates is designed for Crypto. So who knows..
To backtest this accurately and get a better picture we resolved the Heiken Ashi bars to standard candlesticks . Even so, I was unable to sustain any consistency in my results on either the 1 or 3 min time frames and both FOREX and Crypto. 10000% Busted.
This strategy uses a combination of 3 open-source public indicators:
Trend Magic by KivancOzbilgic
Squeeze Momentum by LazyBear
Cumulative Delta Volume by LonesomeTheBlue
Trend Magic consists of two main indicators to validate momentum and volatility. It uses an ATR like a trailing Stop to determine the overarching momentum and CCI as a means to validate volatility. Together these are used as the primary indicator in this strategy. When the CCI is above 0 this is confirmation of a volatility event is occurring with affirmation based upon current momentum (ATR).
The CCI volatility indicator gets confirmation by the the Cumulative Delta Volume indicator which calculates the difference between buying and selling pressure. Volume Delta is calculated by taking the difference of the volume that traded at the offer price and the volume that traded at the bid price. The more volume that is traded at the bid price, the more likely there is momentum in the market.
And lastly the Squeeze Momentum indicator which uses a combination of Bollinger Bands, Keltner Channels and Momentum are used to again confirm momentum and volatility. During periods of low volatility, Bollinger bands narrow and trade inside Keltner channels. They can only contract so much before it can’t contain the energy it’s been building. When the Bollinger bands come back out, it explodes higher. When we see the histogram bar exploding into green above 0 that is a clear confirmation of increased momentum and volatile. The opposite (red) below 0 is true when there are low periods. This indicator is used as a means to really determine when there is premium selling plays going on leading to big directional movements again confirming the positive or negative momentum and volatility direction.
If you know of or have a strategy you want to see myth-busted or just have an idea for one, please feel free to message me.
Trading Rules
1 - 3 min candles
FOREX or Crypto
Stop loss at swing high/low | 1.5 risk/ratio
Long Condition
Trend Magic line is Blue ( CCI is above 0) and above the current close on the bar
Squeeze Momentum's histogram bar is green/lime
Cumulative Delta Volume line is green
Short Condition
Trend Magic line is Red ( CCI is below 0) and below the current close on the bar
Squeeze Momentum's histogram bar is red/maroon
Cumulative Delta Volume line is peach
ATR PivotsThe "ATR Pivots" script is a technical analysis tool designed to help traders identify key levels of support and resistance on a chart. The indicator uses various metrics such as the Average True Range (ATR), Daily True Range ( DTR ), Daily True Range Percentage (DTR%), Average Daily Range (ADR), Previous Day High ( PDH ), and Previous Day Low ( PDL ) to provide a comprehensive picture of the volatility and movement of a security. The script also includes an EMA cloud and 200 EMA for trend identification and a 1-minute ATR scalping strategy for traders to make informed trading decisions.
ATR Detail:-
The ATR is a measure of the volatility of a security over a given period of time. It is calculated by taking the average of the true range (the difference between the high and low of a security) over a set number of periods. The user can input the number of periods (ATR length) to be used for the ATR calculation. The script also allows the user to choose whether to use the current close or not for the calculation. The script calculates various levels of support and resistance based on the relationship between the security's range ( high-low ) and the ATR. The levels are calculated by multiplying the ATR by different Fibonacci ratios (0.236, 0.382, 0.5, 0.618, 0.786, 1.000) and then adding or subtracting the result from the previous close. The script plots these levels on the chart, with the -100 level being the most significant level. The user also has an option to choose whether to plot all Fibonacci levels or not.
DTR and DTR% Detail:-
The Daily True Range Percentage (DTR%) is a metric that measures the daily volatility of a security as a percentage of its previous close. It is calculated by dividing the Daily True Range ( DTR ) by the previous close. DTR is the range between the current period's high and low and gives a measure of the volatility of the security on a daily basis. DTR% can be used as an indicator of the percentage of movement of the security on a daily basis. In this script, DTR% is used in combination with other metrics such as the Average True Range (ATR) and Fibonacci ratios to calculate key levels of support and resistance for the security. The idea behind using DTR% is that it can help traders to better understand the daily volatility of the security and make more informed trading decisions.
For example, if a security has a DTR% of 2%, it suggests that the security has a relatively low level of volatility and is less likely to experience significant price movements on a daily basis. On the other hand, if a security has a DTR% of 10%, it suggests that the security has a relatively high level of volatility and is more likely to experience significant price movements on a daily basis.
ADR:-
The script then calculates the ADR (Average Daily Range) which is the average of the daily range of the security, using the formula (Period High - Period Low) / ATR Length. This gives a measure of the average volatility of the security on a daily basis, which can be useful for determining potential levels of support and resistance .
PDH /PDL:-
The script also calculates PDH (Previous Day High) and PDL (Previous Day Low) which are the High and low of the previous day of the security. This gives a measure of the previous day's volatility and movement, which can be useful for determining potential levels of support and resistance .
EMA Cloud and 200 EMA Detail:-
The EMA cloud is a technical analysis tool that helps traders identify the trend of the market by comparing two different exponential moving averages (EMAs) of different lengths. The cloud is created by plotting the fast EMA and the slow EMA on the chart and filling the space between them. The user can input the length of the fast and slow EMA , and the script will calculate and plot these EMAs on the chart. The space between the two EMAs is then filled with a color that represents the trend, with green indicating a bullish trend and red indicating a bearish trend . Additionally, the script also plots a 200 EMA , which is a commonly used long-term trend indicator. When the fast EMA is above the slow EMA and the 200 EMA , it is considered a bullish signal, indicating an uptrend. When the fast EMA is below the slow EMA and the 200 EMA , it is considered a bearish signal, indicating a downtrend. The EMA cloud and 200 EMA can be used together to help traders identify the overall trend of the market and make more informed trading decisions.
1 Minute ATR Scalping Strategy:-
The script also includes a 1-minute ATR scalping strategy that can be used by traders looking for quick profits in the market. The strategy involves using the ATR levels calculated by the script as well as the EMA cloud and 200 EMA to identify potential buy and sell opportunities. For example, if the 1-minute ATR is above 11 in NIFTY and the EMA cloud is bullish , the strategy suggests buying the security. Similarly, if the 1-minute ATR is above 30 in BANKNIFTY and the EMA cloud is bullish , the strategy suggests buying the security.
Inside Candle:-
The Inside Candle is a price action pattern that occurs when the current candle's high and low are entirely within the range of the previous candle's high and low. This pattern indicates indecision or consolidation in the market and can be a potential sign of a trend reversal. When used in the 15-minute chart, traders can look for Inside Candle patterns that occur at key levels of support or resistance. If the Inside Candle pattern occurs at a key level and the price subsequently breaks out of the range of the Inside Candle, it can be a signal to enter a trade in the direction of the breakout. Traders can also use the Inside Candle pattern to trade in a tight range, or to reduce their exposure to a current trend.
Risk Management:-
As with any trading strategy, it is important to practice proper risk management when using the ATR Pivots script and the 1-minute ATR scalping strategy. This may include setting stop-loss orders, using appropriate position sizing, and diversifying your portfolio. It is also important to note that past performance is not indicative of future results and that the script and strategy provided are for educational purposes only.
In conclusion, the "ATR Pivots" script is a powerful tool that can help traders identify key levels of support and resistance , as well as trend direction. The additional metrics such as DTR , DTR%, ADR, PDH , and PDL provide a more comprehensive picture of the volatility and movement of the security, making it easier for traders to make better trading decisions. The inclusion of the EMA cloud and 200 EMA for trend identification, and the 1-minute ATR scalping strategy for quick profits can further enhance a trader's decision-making process. However, it is important to practice proper risk management and understand that past performance is not indicative of future results.
Special thanks to satymahajan for the idea of clubbing Average True Range with Fibonacci levels.
DR/IDR of Omega by TRSTNThis is an EXPERIMENTAL Script by @TRSTNGLRD derived from the coding of @IAmMas7er's "DR/IDR" Indicator that adds a total of 11 additional DR / IDR Ranges on both lower and higher timeframes.
This script is no-longer being worked on, so I have made it public.
Background:
This Script utilizes the Fibonacci-Doubling Sequence between the range of 18:30pm and 16:55pm NY-Time. Each Cycle is grouped into the following:
Omega/2, Omega/4, Omega/8, and Omega/16
The Mas7er's three original sessions are: Omega/4v1, Omega/4v2, and Omega/8v1
These three Sessions above take rule over all others. If you are looking to back-test this version of the script, please use the Experimental ranges as confirmation for the three above.
Important Notes:
- Please only select Sessions with their respected groups (All of Omega/4, All of Omega/16, etc...) rather than selecting all of them at once.
If you select all of them at once, the ranges will not be correct and cut each other off.
The only exceptions to this rule are the Mas7er's original ranges above.
- If you wish to have multiple groups of Ranges together, please add a second indicator to your chart.
- Omega/16v1 and Omega/16v6 are known to have a high-probability of a Judas Swing (takes out both sides of the range) - Be Cautious!
- Omega/2v1 is a very large DR / IDR range. I am working on shrinking it in size, but have more experimenting to do with different ranges.
- I do not use the experimental ranges with the IDR , only the DR . I have not been able to define probabilities fully yet, but the levels are respected nonetheless.
This script is not supposed to work EXACTLY like the Mas7er's, rather, generally instead.
Please comment and leave your opinion below about which ranges work the best and how you may utilize them.
Thank you!
1st Gray Cross Signals ━ Histogram SQZMOM [whvntr][LazyBear]This is the Histogram Version of one of my other indicators named: SQZ Momentum + 1st Gray Cross Signals (with arrows) Which is a modification of "Squeeze Momentum Indicator" by user: "LazyBear". In that indicator of his he described, and suggested, the use of his gray cross signals to find points of interest for trading based on the direction of momentum when the first gray cross appears... I have programmed these points, and highlighted them, for ease of use. The 1st gray cross strategy, he said , is from John F. Carter's book, Chapter 11, "Mastering the Trade".
Here we have the Histogram version, with background highlights only, and nothing on the chart, in true SQZ Momentum style.
Disclaimer: using this indicator, or any indicator anywhere, involves risk when trading and isn't a guarantee of 100% accurate results.
[LazyBear] SQZ Momentum + 1st Gray Cross Signals ━ whvntrI have modified LazyBears Squeeze Momentum Indicator with enhancements, plus added signals
LazyBear mentioned that in John F. Carter's book, Chapter 11, "Mastering the Trade", that "Mr. Carter suggests waiting till the first gray after a black cross, and taking a position in the direction of the momentum (for ex., if momentum value is above zero, go long). Exit the position when the momentum changes (increase or decrease --- signified by a color change)." I have done just that. Now at each "first gray after a black cross", there are now Bearish and Bullish signals.. The signals only appear in the direction of the momentum.
Disclaimer: This indicator does not constitute investment advice. Trade at your own
risk with this method of identifying changes in stock market momentum.
30MIN CYCLE█ HOW DOES IT WORK?
The known 90 min cycle is used as one killzone. But actually all 18 min are relevant to search for a trade. All 18 min when a new box starts only then is the placement of an order valid. If the entry candle isn't in a box then it will probably fail. The boxes should only be used in the M1 or M5 timeframe. The best hitrate is in the M1 timeframe. Included are the last 48 "Mini-Killzones" für intraday trading and backtesting. These "Mini-Killzones" can be used with the "Liquidity Inducement Strategy".
█ WHAT MAKES IT UNIQUE?
This is the first indicator on tradingview that shows all mini-killzones for trading and backtesting a whole tradingday. The well-known killzones of ICT are from 08:00-11:00 and 14:00 - 17:00 (UTC+1) but with this indicator there is finally a refinement of the ICT Smart Money Concept killzones.
█ HOW TO USE IT?
For a proper use of this indicator we suggest to know already at least SMC or better Liquidity Indcuement Trading. This indicator is a further confluence before placing an order. After you made your setup you will have these mini-killzones as a confluence. We don't suggest to open a trade only according to this indicator.
█ ADDITIONAL INFO
This indicator is free to use for all tradingview users.
█ DISCLAIMER
This is not financial advice.
TechnicalRating█ OVERVIEW
This library is a Pine Script™ programmer’s tool for incorporating TradingView's well-known technical ratings within their scripts. The ratings produced by this library are the same as those from the speedometers in the technical analysis summary and the "Rating" indicator in the Screener , which use the aggregate biases of 26 technical indicators to calculate their results.
█ CONCEPTS
Ensemble analysis
Ensemble analysis uses multiple weaker models to produce a potentially stronger one. A common form of ensemble analysis in technical analysis is the usage of aggregate indicators together in hopes of gaining further market insight and reinforcing trading decisions.
Technical ratings
Technical ratings provide a simplified way to analyze financial markets by combining signals from an ensemble of indicators into a singular value, allowing traders to assess market sentiment more quickly and conveniently than analyzing each constituent separately. By consolidating the signals from multiple indicators into a single rating, traders can more intuitively and easily interpret the "technical health" of the market.
Calculating the rating value
Using a variety of built-in TA functions and functions from our ta library, this script calculates technical ratings for moving averages, oscillators, and their overall result within the `calcRatingAll()` function.
The function uses the script's `calcRatingMA()` function to calculate the moving average technical rating from an ensemble of 15 moving averages and filters:
• Six Simple Moving Averages and six Exponential Moving Averages with periods of 10, 20, 30, 50, 100, and 200
• A Hull Moving Average with a period of 9
• A Volume-Weighted Moving Average with a period of 20
• An Ichimoku Cloud with a conversion line length of 9, base length of 26, and leading span B length of 52
The function uses the script's `calcRating()` function to calculate the oscillator technical rating from an ensemble of 11 oscillators:
• RSI with a period of 14
• Stochastic with a %K period of 14, a smoothing period of 3, and a %D period of 3
• CCI with a period of 20
• ADX with a DI length of 14 and an ADX smoothing period of 14
• Awesome Oscillator
• Momentum with a period of 10
• MACD with fast, slow, and signal periods of 12, 26, and 9
• Stochastic RSI with an RSI period of 14, a %K period of 14, a smoothing period of 3, and a %D period of 3
• Williams %R with a period of 14
• Bull Bear Power with a period of 50
• Ultimate Oscillator with fast, middle, and slow lengths of 7, 14, and 28
Each indicator is assigned a value of +1, 0, or -1, representing a bullish, neutral, or bearish rating. The moving average rating is the mean of all ratings that use the `calcRatingMA()` function, and the oscillator rating is the mean of all ratings that use the `calcRating()` function. The overall rating is the mean of the moving average and oscillator ratings, which ranges between +1 and -1. This overall rating, along with the separate MA and oscillator ratings, can be used to gain insight into the technical strength of the market. For a more detailed breakdown of the signals and conditions used to calculate the indicators' ratings, consult our Help Center explanation.
Determining rating status
The `ratingStatus()` function produces a string representing the status of a series of ratings. The `strongBound` and `weakBound` parameters, with respective default values of 0.5 and 0.1, define the bounds for "strong" and "weak" ratings.
The rating status is determined as follows:
Rating Value Rating Status
< -strongBound Strong Sell
< -weakBound Sell
-weakBound to weakBound Neutral
> weakBound Buy
> strongBound Strong Buy
By customizing the `strongBound` and `weakBound` values, traders can tailor the `ratingStatus()` function to fit their trading style or strategy, leading to a more personalized approach to evaluating ratings.
Look first. Then leap.
█ FUNCTIONS
This library contains the following functions:
calcRatingAll()
Calculates 3 ratings (ratings total, MA ratings, indicator ratings) using the aggregate biases of 26 different technical indicators.
Returns: A 3-element tuple: ( [(float) ratingTotal, (float) ratingOther, (float) ratingMA ].
countRising(plot)
Calculates the number of times the values in the given series increase in value up to a maximum count of 5.
Parameters:
plot : (series float) The series of values to check for rising values.
Returns: (int) The number of times the values in the series increased in value.
ratingStatus(ratingValue, strongBound, weakBound)
Determines the rating status of a given series based on its values and defined bounds.
Parameters:
ratingValue : (series float) The series of values to determine the rating status for.
strongBound : (series float) The upper bound for a "strong" rating.
weakBound : (series float) The upper bound for a "weak" rating.
Returns: (string) The rating status of the given series ("Strong Buy", "Buy", "Neutral", "Sell", or "Strong Sell").
Musashi_Fractal_Dimension === Musashi-Fractal-Dimension ===
This tool is part of my research on the fractal nature of the markets and understanding the relation between fractal dimension and chaos theory.
To take full advantage of this indicator, you need to incorporate some principles and concepts:
- Traditional Technical Analysis is linear and Euclidean, which makes very difficult its modeling.
- Linear techniques cannot quantify non-linear behavior
- Is it possible to measure accurately a wave or the surface of a mountain with a simple ruler?
- Fractals quantify what Euclidean Geometry can’t, they measure chaos, as they identify order in apparent randomness.
- Remember: Chaos is order disguised as randomness.
- Chaos is the study of unstable aperiodic behavior in deterministic non-linear dynamic systems
- Order and randomness can coexist, allowing predictability.
- There is a reason why Fractal Dimension was invented, we had no way of measuring fractal-based structures.
- Benoit Mandelbrot used to explain it by asking: How do we measure the coast of Great Britain?
- An easy way of getting the need of a dimension in between is looking at the Koch snowflake.
- Market prices tend to seek natural levels of ranges of balance. These levels can be described as attractors and are determinant.
Fractal Dimension Index ('FDI')
Determines the persistence or anti-persistence of a market.
- A persistent market follows a market trend. An anti-persistent market results in substantial volatility around the trend (with a low r2), and is more vulnerable to price reversals
- An easy way to see this is to think that fractal dimension measures what is in between mainstream dimensions. These are:
- One dimension: a line
- Two dimensions: a square
- Three dimensions: a cube.
--> This will hint you that at certain moment, if the market has a Fractal Dimension of 1.25 (which is low), the market is behaving more “line-like”, while if the market has a high Fractal Dimension, it could be interpreted as “square-like”.
- 'FDI' is trend agnostic, which means that doesn't consider trend. This makes it super useful as gives you clean information about the market without trying to include trend stuff.
Question: If we have a game where you must choose between two options.
1. a horizontal line
2. a vertical line.
Each iteration a Horizontal Line or a Square will appear as continuation of a figure. If it that iteration shows a square and you bet vertical you win, same as if it is horizontal and it is a line.
- Wouldn’t be useful to know that Fractal dimension is 1.8? This will hint square. In the markets you can use 'FD' to filter mean-reversal signals like Bollinger bands, stochastics, Regular RSI divergences, etc.
- Wouldn’t be useful to know that Fractal dimension is 1.2? This will hint Line. In the markets you can use 'FD' to confirm trend following strategies like Moving averages, MACD, Hidden RSI divergences.
Calculation method:
Fractal dimension is obtained from the ‘hurst exponent’.
'FDI' = 2 - 'Hurst Exponent'
Musashi version of the Classic 'OG' Fractal Dimension Index ('FDI')
- By default, you get 3 fast 'FDI's (11,12,13) + 1 Slow 'FDI' (21), their interaction gives useful information.
- Fast 'FDI' cross will give you gray or red dots while Slow 'FDI' cross with the slowest of the fast 'FDI's will give white and orange dots. This are great to early spot trend beginnings or trend ends.
- A baseline (purple) is also provided, this is calculated using a 21 period Bollinger bands with 1.618 'SD', once calculated, you just take midpoint, this is the 'TDI's (Traders Dynamic Index) way. The indicator will print purple dots when Slow 'FDI' and baseline crosses, I see them as Short-Term cycle changes.
- Negative slope 'FDI' means trending asset.
- Positive most of the times hints correction, but if it got overextended it might hint a rocket-shot.
TDI Ranges:
- 'FDI' between 1.0≤ 'FDI' ≤1.4 will confirm trend following continuation signals.
- 'FDI' between 1.6≥ 'FDI' ≥2.0 will confirm reversal signals.
- 'FDI' == 1.5 hints a random unpredictable market.
Fractal Attractors
- As you must know, fractals tend orbit certain spots, this are named Attractors, this happens with any fractal behavior. The market of course also shows them, in form of Support & Resistance, Supply Demand, etc. It’s obvious they are there, but now we understand that they’re not linear, as the market is fractal, so simple trendline might not be the best tool to model this.
- I’ve noticed that when the Musashi version of the 'FDI' indicator start making a cluster of multicolor dots, this end up being an attractor, I tend to draw a rectangle as that area as price tend to come back (I still researching here).
Extra useful stuff
- Momentum / speed: Included by checking RSI Study in the indicator properties. This will add two RSI’s (9 and a 7 periods) plus a baseline calculated same way as explained for 'FDI'. This gives accurate short-term trends. It also includes RSI divergences (regular and hidden), deactivate with a simple check in the RSI section of the properties.
- BBWP (Bollinger Bands with Percentile): Efficient way of visualizing volatility as the percentile of Bollinger bands expansion. This line varies color from Iced blue when low volatility and magma red when high. By default, comes with the High vols deactivated for better view of 'FDI' and RSI while all studies are included. DDWP is trend agnostic, just like 'FDI', which make it very clean at providing information.
- Ultra Slow 'FDI': I noticed that while using BBWP and RSI, the indicator gets overcrowded, so there is the possibility of adding only one 'FDI' + its baseline.
Final Note: I’ve shown you few ways of using this indicator, please backtest before using in real trading. As you know trading is more about risk and trade management than the strategy used. This still a work in progress, I really hope you find value out of it. I use it combination with a tool named “Musashi_Katana” (also found in TradingView).
Best!
Musashi
Strategy Myth-Busting #20 - HalfTrend+HullButterfly - [MYN]#20 on the Myth-Busting bench, we are automating the " I Found Super Easy 1 Minute Scalping System And Backtest It 100 Times " strategy from " Jessy Trading " who claims 30.58% net profit over 100 trades in a couple of weeks with a 51% win rate and profit factor of 1.56 on EURUSD .
This one surprised us quite a bit. Despite the title of this strategy indicating this is on the 1 min timeframe, the author demonstrates the backtesting manually on the 5 minute timeframe. Given the simplicity of this strategy only incorporating a couple of indicators, it's robustness being able to be profitable in both low and high timeframes and on multiple symbols was quite refreshing.
The 3 settings which we need to pay most attention to here is the Hull Butterfly length, HalfTrend amplitude and the Max Number Of Bars Between Hull and HalfTrend Trigger. Depending on the timeframe and symbol, these settings greatly impact the performance outcomes of the strategy. I've listed a couple of these below.
And as always, If you know of or have a strategy you want to see myth-busted or just have an idea for one, please feel free to message me.
This strategy uses a combination of 3 open-source public indicators:
Hull Butterfly Oscillator by LuxAlgo
HalfTrend by Everget
Trading Rules
5 min candles but higher / lower candles work too.
Stop loss at swing high/low
Take Profit 1.5x the risk
Long
Hull Butterfly gives us green column, Wait for HalfTrend to present an up arrow and enter trade.
Short
Hull Butterfly gives us a red column , Wait for HalfTrend to present a down arrow and enter trade.
Alternative Trading Settings for different time frames
1 Minute Timeframe
Move the Hull Butterfly length from the default 11 to 9
Move the HalfTrend Amplitude from the default 2 to 1
Enabling ADX Filter with a 25 threshold
2 Hour Timeframe
Move the HalfTrend Amplitude from the default 2 to 1
Laddered Take Profits from 14.5% to 19% with an 8% SL
TASC 2022.11 Phasor Analysis█ OVERVIEW
TASC's November 2022 edition Traders' Tips includes an article by John Ehlers titled "Recurring Phase Of Cycle Analysis". This is the code that implements the phasor analysis indicator presented in this publication.
█ CONCEPTS
The article explores the use of phasor analysis to identify market trends.
An ordinary rotating phasor diagram is a two-dimensional vector, anchored to the origin, whose rotation rate corresponds to the cycle period in the price data stream. Similarly, Ehlers' phasor is a representation of angular phase rotation along the course of time. Its angle reflects the current phase of the cycle. Angles -180, -90, +90 and +180 degrees correspond to the beginning, valley, peak and end of the cycle, respectively.
If the observed cycle is very long, the market can be considered trending . In his article, John Ehlers defined trending behavior to occur when the derived instantaneous cycle period value is greater that 60 bars. The author also introduced guidelines for long and short entries in a trending state. Depending on the tuning of the indicator period input, a long entry position may occur when the phasor angle is around the approximate vicinity of −90 degrees, while a short entry position may occur when the phasor angle will be around the approximate vicinity of +90 degrees. Applying these definitive guidelines, the author proposed a state variable that is indicated by +1 for a trending long position, 0 for cycling, and −1 for a trending short position (or out).
The phasor angle, the cycle period, and the state variable are made available with three selectable display modes provided for this TradingView indicator.
█ CALCULATIONS
The calculations are carried out as follows.
First, the price data stream is correlated with cosine and sine of a fixed cycle period. This produces two new data streams that correspond to the projections of the frequency domain phasor diagram to the horizontal (so-called real ) and vertical (so-called imaginary ) axis respectively. The wavelength of the cycle period input should be set for the midrange vicinities of the phasor to coincide with the peaks and valleys of the charted price data.
Secondly, the phase angle of the phasor is easily computed as the arctangent of the ratio of the imaginary component to the real component. The difference between the current phasor values and its last is then employed to calculate a derived instantaneous period and market state. This computation is then repeated successively for each individual bar over the entire duration of the data set.
JSS: On Balance Volume//Date: 11-Oct-22
//Author: Jatinder Sodhi
OBV Indicator with colour coding.
Blue - Long
Red - Short
Best used for Intraday on 5 minute charts. Works well on other timeframes as well.
@Inspired by Asit Baran's RankDelta:OBV Indicator
//Not an exact replica as I have found one line correctly ema(obv,21)
//Whereas second line ema(obv,5) corresponds closely with Asit's indicator values but not exact.
//Advisable to use along with my RSI indicator based on Asit Baran's RankDelta:RSI indicator.
Strategy Myth-Busting #10 - InsideBar+EMA - [MYN]This is part of a new series we are calling "Strategy Myth-Busting" where we take open public manual trading strategies and automate them. The goal is to not only validate the authenticity of the claims but to provide an automated version for traders who wish to trade autonomously.
Our 10th one we are automating is the " 75% Win Rate High Profit Inside Bar Trading Strategy - What If You ... " strategy from " Trade Pro " who claims to have backtested this manually and achieved 11,063% profit with a 75% winrate over 100 trades. I was unable to emulate these results consistently accommodating for slippage and commission but even so, the results look promising. I was only able to achieve this win-rate with some multiple take profit staggering. Even so the markdown is above where I would normally consider comfortable (>20%).
If you know of or have a strategy you want to see myth-busted or just have an idea for one, please feel free to message me.
This strategy uses a combination of 2 open-source public indicators:
Inside Bar Ind/Alert by CMA
EMA (built-in)
Trading Rules
4 hour candles
Stop Loss at EMA Line with TP Target 1.5x the risk
Long Entry when these conditions are true
inside bar and bullish
Bar close's above 50 ema
Price action rises above high of inside bar .
Short Entry when these conditions are true
inside bar and bearish
Bar close below 50 ema
Price action falls below low of inside bar
TrapFrames (Stocks)TrapFrames (Stocks) is the Stock version of Trapframes that is the table chart from Traplight that showed the current values for a symbol for Traplight and Kriss/Kross, but cranked up to 11! You can select from a large list of stocks to create a dashboard-like view of your favorite symbols. So that you can "Check the Weather" so to speak. This is mainly to be used as a companion indicator to Traplight. So, that you can find which of your symbols looks interesting, and delve more deeply into them on an individual basis from there.
TrapFramesTrapFrames is the table chart from Traplight that showed the current values for a symbol for Traplight and Kriss/Kross, but cranked up to 11! You can select from a large list of pairs/indexes to create a dashboard-like view of your favorite symbols. So that you can "Check the Weather" so to speak. This is mainly to be used as a companion indicator to Traplight. So, that you can find which of your symbols looks interesting, and delve more deeply into them on an individual basis from there.
RSI Reborn [New Formula]A unique non-standard RSI formula with my extensions.
The indicator is displayed without delays and repaints, immediately after the close of the candle.
This formula allows me to correctly include the moving average in the calculation. The calculation allows me to display RSI with any type of MA.
By default I use EMA, with this type of MA my RSI is not visually different from a regular RSI.
I have 11 types of RSI to choose from:
'EMA'
'ALMA'
'RMF'
'TilsonT3'
'ARSI'
'RMA'
'SMA'
'VWMA'
'WMA'
'WWMA'
'ZEMA'
You also have a choice of RSI display:
As candlesticks and as a simple line.
You can adjust the colors in the Style tab.
When you select 'Candles' type, you can make the wicks transparent if they bother you.
I also added a source selection. By default, any RSI uses the Close source.
But you can choose any of 15:
VWAP, Close, Open, HL2, HLC3, OHLC4, Volume, High, Low, vwap(Close), vwap(Open), vwap(High), vwap(Low), AVG(vwap(H,L)), AVG(vwap(O,C)).
Additional extensions:
Additional RSI added.
By default, the extra RSI is twice as long as the regular RSI. Despite the value of 14. The "Multiple of Current TF" function allows calling RSI from a timeframe twice as long as the current one, if it is equal to 2. If it is equal to 3, then it will be 3 times longer than the current timeframe. And so on.
An additional moving average has been added.
You can use it as an ordinary additional line. Or leave it as Cloud by default.
A unique oversold/oversold formula in the form of small red/green dots has been added.
Bolinger Bands feature has also been added.
Black Scholes Option Pricing Model w/ Greeks [Loxx]The Black Scholes Merton model
If you are new to options I strongly advise you to profit from Robert Shiller's lecture on same . It combines practical market insights with a strong authoritative grasp of key models in option theory. He explains many of the areas covered below and in the following pages with a lot intuition and relatable anecdotage. We start here with Black Scholes Merton which is probably the most popular option pricing framework, due largely to its simplicity and ease in terms of implementation. The closed-form solution is efficient in terms of speed and always compares favorably relative to any numerical technique. The Black–Scholes–Merton model is a mathematical go-to model for estimating the value of European calls and puts. In the early 1970’s, Myron Scholes, and Fisher Black made an important breakthrough in the pricing of complex financial instruments. Robert Merton simultaneously was working on the same problem and applied the term Black-Scholes model to describe new generation of pricing. The Black Scholes (1973) contribution developed insights originally proposed by Bachelier 70 years before. In 1997, Myron Scholes and Robert Merton received the Nobel Prize for Economics. Tragically, Fisher Black died in 1995. The Black–Scholes formula presents a theoretical estimate (or model estimate) of the price of European-style options independently of the risk of the underlying security. Future payoffs from options can be discounted using the risk-neutral rate. Earlier academic work on options (e.g., Malkiel and Quandt 1968, 1969) had contemplated using either empirical, econometric analyses or elaborate theoretical models that possessed parameters whose values could not be calibrated directly. In contrast, Black, Scholes, and Merton’s parameters were at their core simple and did not involve references to utility or to the shifting risk appetite of investors. Below, we present a standard type formula, where: c = Call option value, p = Put option value, S=Current stock (or other underlying) price, K or X=Strike price, r=Risk-free interest rate, q = dividend yield, T=Time to maturity and N denotes taking the normal cumulative probability. b = (r - q) = cost of carry. (via VinegarHill-Financelab )
Things to know
This can only be used on the daily timeframe
You must select the option type and the greeks you wish to show
This indicator is a work in process, functions may be updated in the future. I will also be adding additional greeks as I code them or they become available in finance literature. This indictor contains 18 greeks. Many more will be added later.
Inputs
Spot price: select from 33 different types of price inputs
Calculation Steps: how many iterations to be used in the BS model. In practice, this number would be anywhere from 5000 to 15000, for our purposes here, this is limited to 300
Strike Price: the strike price of the option you're wishing to model
% Implied Volatility: here you can manually enter implied volatility
Historical Volatility Period: the input period for historical volatility ; historical volatility isn't used in the BS process, this is to serve as a sort of benchmark for the implied volatility ,
Historical Volatility Type: choose from various types of implied volatility , search my indicators for details on each of these
Option Base Currency: this is to calculate the risk-free rate, this is used if you wish to automatically calculate the risk-free rate instead of using the manual input. this uses the 10 year bold yield of the corresponding country
% Manual Risk-free Rate: here you can manually enter the risk-free rate
Use manual input for Risk-free Rate? : choose manual or automatic for risk-free rate
% Manual Yearly Dividend Yield: here you can manually enter the yearly dividend yield
Adjust for Dividends?: choose if you even want to use use dividends
Automatically Calculate Yearly Dividend Yield? choose if you want to use automatic vs manual dividend yield calculation
Time Now Type: choose how you want to calculate time right now, see the tool tip
Days in Year: choose how many days in the year, 365 for all days, 252 for trading days, etc
Hours Per Day: how many hours per day? 24, 8 working hours, or 6.5 trading hours
Expiry date settings: here you can specify the exact time the option expires
The Black Scholes Greeks
The Option Greek formulae express the change in the option price with respect to a parameter change taking as fixed all the other inputs. ( Haug explores multiple parameter changes at once .) One significant use of Greek measures is to calibrate risk exposure. A market-making financial institution with a portfolio of options, for instance, would want a snap shot of its exposure to asset price, interest rates, dividend fluctuations. It would try to establish impacts of volatility and time decay. In the formulae below, the Greeks merely evaluate change to only one input at a time. In reality, we might expect a conflagration of changes in interest rates and stock prices etc. (via VigengarHill-Financelab )
First-order Greeks
Delta: Delta measures the rate of change of the theoretical option value with respect to changes in the underlying asset's price. Delta is the first derivative of the value
Vega: Vegameasures sensitivity to volatility. Vega is the derivative of the option value with respect to the volatility of the underlying asset.
Theta: Theta measures the sensitivity of the value of the derivative to the passage of time (see Option time value): the "time decay."
Rho: Rho measures sensitivity to the interest rate: it is the derivative of the option value with respect to the risk free interest rate (for the relevant outstanding term).
Lambda: Lambda, Omega, or elasticity is the percentage change in option value per percentage change in the underlying price, a measure of leverage, sometimes called gearing.
Epsilon: Epsilon, also known as psi, is the percentage change in option value per percentage change in the underlying dividend yield, a measure of the dividend risk. The dividend yield impact is in practice determined using a 10% increase in those yields. Obviously, this sensitivity can only be applied to derivative instruments of equity products.
Second-order Greeks
Gamma: Measures the rate of change in the delta with respect to changes in the underlying price. Gamma is the second derivative of the value function with respect to the underlying price.
Vanna: Vanna, also referred to as DvegaDspot and DdeltaDvol, is a second order derivative of the option value, once to the underlying spot price and once to volatility. It is mathematically equivalent to DdeltaDvol, the sensitivity of the option delta with respect to change in volatility; or alternatively, the partial of vega with respect to the underlying instrument's price. Vanna can be a useful sensitivity to monitor when maintaining a delta- or vega-hedged portfolio as vanna will help the trader to anticipate changes to the effectiveness of a delta-hedge as volatility changes or the effectiveness of a vega-hedge against change in the underlying spot price.
Charm: Charm or delta decay measures the instantaneous rate of change of delta over the passage of time.
Vomma: Vomma, volga, vega convexity, or DvegaDvol measures second order sensitivity to volatility. Vomma is the second derivative of the option value with respect to the volatility, or, stated another way, vomma measures the rate of change to vega as volatility changes.
Veta: Veta or DvegaDtime measures the rate of change in the vega with respect to the passage of time. Veta is the second derivative of the value function; once to volatility and once to time.
Vera: Vera (sometimes rhova) measures the rate of change in rho with respect to volatility. Vera is the second derivative of the value function; once to volatility and once to interest rate.
Third-order Greeks
Speed: Speed measures the rate of change in Gamma with respect to changes in the underlying price.
Zomma: Zomma measures the rate of change of gamma with respect to changes in volatility.
Color: Color, gamma decay or DgammaDtime measures the rate of change of gamma over the passage of time.
Ultima: Ultima measures the sensitivity of the option vomma with respect to change in volatility.
Dual Delta: Dual Delta determines how the option price changes in relation to the change in the option strike price; it is the first derivative of the option price relative to the option strike price
Dual Gamma: Dual Gamma determines by how much the coefficient will changedual delta when the option strike price changes; it is the second derivative of the option price relative to the option strike price.
Related Indicators
Cox-Ross-Rubinstein Binomial Tree Options Pricing Model
Implied Volatility Estimator using Black Scholes
Boyle Trinomial Options Pricing Model
ICT Killzones by MoziThe ICT Killzone and important times indicator.
It highlights:
London Killzone
New York Killzone
New York Lunch Hour
New York Day End Hour
Asian Range
Judas Swing Time
In addition to this, it highlights the US and UK holidays with a background color and a label, so that you don't miss any bank holiday and you are sitting in front of your charts and are wondering, why the chart is not moving ;-)
I manually draw vertical lines at specific times like 08:30 London, 09:30 London, 08:30 New York, 09:30 New York, 11:00 New York (Take Profit Time)
RF+ Divergence Scalping SystemRF+ Divergence Scalping System + Custom Signals + Alerts.
This chart overlay indicator has been developed for the low timeframe divergence scalper.
Built upon the realtime divergence drawing code from the Divergence for Many indicator originally authored by Lonsometheblue, this chart overlay indicator bundles several additional unique features and modifications to serve as an all-in-one divergence scalping system. The current key features at the time of publishing are listed below (features are optional and can be enabled or disabled):
- Fully configurable realtime divergence drawing and alerting feature that can draw divergences directly on the chart using data sourced from up to 11 oscillators selected by the user, which have been included specifically for their ability to detect divergences, including oscillators not presently included in the original Divergence for Many indicator, such as the Ultimate Oscillator and TSI.
- Optional on chart table showing a summary of key statuses of various indicators, and nearby divergences.
- 2 x Range Filters with custom settings used for low timeframe trend detection.
- 3 x configurable multi-timeframe Stochastic RSI overbought and oversold signals with presentation options.
- On-chart pivot points drawn automatically.
- Automatically adjusted pivot period for up to 4 configurable time frames to fine tune divergences drawn for optimal divergence detection.
- Real-price line for use with Heikin Ashi candles, with styling options.
- Real-price close dots for use with Heikin Ashi candles, with styling options.
- A selection of custom signals that can be printed on-chart and alerted.
- Sessions indicator for the London, New York, Tokyo and Sydney trading sessions, including daylight savings toggle, and unique ‘invert background color’ option, which colours the entire chart - except the trading session you have selected, leaving your chart clear of distracting background color.
- Up to 4 fully configurable moving averages.
- Additional configurable settings for numerous built in indicators, allowing you to alter the lengths and source types, including the UO, TSI, MFI, TSV, 2 x Range Filters.
- Configurable RSI Trend detection signal filter used in a number of the signals, which filters buy signals where the RSI is over the RSI moving average, and only prints sell signals where RSI is under the moving average.
- Customisable on-chart watermark, with inputs for a custom title, subtitle, and also an optional symbol | timeframe | date feature.
The Oscillators able to be selected for use in drawing divergences at the time of publishing are as follows:
- Ultimate Oscillator (UO)
- True Strength Indicator (TSI)
- Money Flow Index (MFI)
- Cumulative Delta Volume (CDV)
- Time Segmented Volume (TSV)
- Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
- Awesome Oscillator
- Relative Strength Index (RSI)
- Stochastic
- On Balance Volume (OBV)
- MACD Histogram
What are divergences?
Divergence is when the price of an asset is moving in the opposite direction of a technical indicator, such as an oscillator, or is moving contrary to other data. Divergence warns that the current price trend may be weakening, and in some cases may lead to the price changing direction.
There are 4 main types of divergence, which are split into 2 categories;
regular divergences and hidden divergences. Regular divergences indicate possible trend reversals, and hidden divergences indicate possible trend continuation.
Regular bullish divergence: An indication of a potential trend reversal, from the current downtrend, to an uptrend.
Regular bearish divergence: An indication of a potential trend reversal, from the current uptrend, to a downtrend.
Hidden bullish divergence: An indication of a potential uptrend continuation.
Hidden bearish divergence: An indication of a potential downtrend continuation.
Setting alerts.
With this indicator you can set alerts to notify you when any/all of the above types of divergences occur, on any chart timeframe you choose, also when the triple timeframe Stochastic RSI overbought and oversold confluences occur, as well as when custom signals are printed.
Configurable pivot period values.
You can adjust the default pivot period values to suit your prefered trading style and timeframe. If you like to trade a shorter time frame, lowering the default lookback values will make the divergences drawn more sensitive to short term price action. By default, this indicator has enabled the automatic adjustment of the pivot periods for 4 configurable time frames, in a bid to optimize the divergences drawn when the indicator is loaded onto any of the 4 time frames selected. These time frames and their associated pivot periods can be fully reconfigured within the settings menu. By default, these have been further optimized for the low timeframe scalper trading on the 1-15 minute time frames.
How do traders use divergences in their trading?
A divergence is considered a leading indicator in technical analysis , meaning it has the ability to indicate a potential price move in the short term future.
Hidden bullish and hidden bearish divergences, which indicate a potential continuation of the current trend are sometimes considered a good place for traders to begin, since trend continuation occurs more frequently than reversals, or trend changes.
When trading regular bullish divergences and regular bearish divergences, which are indications of a trend reversal, the probability of it doing so may increase when these occur at a strong support or resistance level . A common mistake new traders make is to get into a regular divergence trade too early, assuming it will immediately reverse, but these can continue to form for some time before the trend eventually changes, by using forms of support or resistance as an added confluence, such as when price reaches a moving average, the success rate when trading these patterns may increase.
Typically, traders will manually draw lines across the swing highs and swing lows of both the price chart and the oscillator to see whether they appear to present a divergence, this indicator will draw them for you, quickly and clearly, and can notify you when they occur.
How do traders use overbought and oversold levels in their trading?
The oversold level is when the Stochastic RSI is above the 80 level is typically interpreted as being 'overbought', and below the 20 level is typically considered 'oversold'. Traders will often use the Stochastic RSI at, or crossing down from an overbought level as a confluence for entry into a short position, and the Stochastic RSI at, or crossing up from an oversold level as a confluence for an entry into a long position. These levels do not mean that price will necessarily reverse at those levels in a reliable way, however. This is why this version of the Stoch RSI employs the triple timeframe overbought and oversold confluence, in an attempt to add a more confluence and reliability to this usage of the Stoch RSI.
This indicator is intended for use in conjunction with related panel indicators including the TSI+ (True Strength Indicator + Realtime Divergences), UO+ (Ultimate Oscillator + Realtime Divergences), and optionally the STRSI+ (MTF Stochastic RSI + Realtime Divergences) and MFI+ (Money Flow Index + Realtime Divergences) available via this authors’ Tradingview profile, under the scripts section. The realtime divergence drawing code will not identify all divergences, so it is suggested that you also have panel indicators to observe. Each panel indicator also offers additional means of entry confirmation into divergence trades, for example, the Stochastic can indicate when it is crossing down from overbought or up from oversold, the TSi can indicate when the 2 TSI bands cross over one another upward or downward, and the UO and MFI can indicate an entry confluence when they are nearing, or crossing their centerlines, for more confidence in your divergence trade entries.
Additional information on the settings for this indicator can be found via the tooltips within the settings menu itself. Further information on feature updates, and usage tips & tricks will be added to the comments section below in due course.
Disclaimer: This indicator uses code adapted from the Divergence for Many v4 indicator authored by Lonesometheblue, and several stock indicators authored by Tradingview. With many thanks.
GT 5.1 Strategy═════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
█ OVERVIEW
People often look an indicator in their technical analysis to enter a position. We may also need to look at the signals of one or more indicators to verify the signals given by some indicators. In this context, I developed a strategy to test whether it really works by choosing some of the indicators that capture trend changes with the same characteristics. Also, since the subject is to catch the trend change, I thought it would be right to include an indicator using the heikin ashi logic. By averaging and smoothing the market noise, Heiken Ashi makes it easier to detect the direction of the trend helps to see possible reversal points on the chart. However, it should be noted that Heiken Ashi is a lagging indicator.
I picked 5 different indicators (but their purpose are similar) and combined them to produce buy and sell signals based on your choice(not repaint). First of all let's get some information about our indicators. So you will understand me why i picked these indicators and what is the meaning of their signals.
1 — Coral Trend Indicator by LazyBear
Coral Trend Indicator is a linear combination of moving averages, all obtained by a triple or higher order exponential smoothing. The indicator comes with a trend indication which is based on the normalized slope of the plot. the usage of this indicator is simple. When the color of the line is green that means the market is in uptrend. But when the color is red that means the market is in downtrend.
As you see the original indicator it is simple to find is it in uptrend or downtrend.
So i added a code to find when the color of the line change. When it turns green to red my script giving sell signals, when it turns red to green it gives buy signals.
I hide the candles to show you more clearly what is happening when you choose only Coral Strategy. But sometimes it is not enough only using itself. Even if green dots turn to red it continues in uptrend. So we need a to look another indicator to approve our signal.
2 — SSL channel by ErwinBeckers
Known as the SSL , the Semaphore Signal Level channel is an indicator that combines moving averages to provide you with a clear visual signal of price movement dynamics. In short, it's designed to show you when a price trend is forming. This indicator creates a band by calculating the high and low values according to the determined period. Simply if you decide 10 as period, it calculates a 10-period moving average on the latest 10 highs. Calculate a 10-period moving average on the latest 10 lows. If the price falls below the low band, the downtrend begins, if the price closes above the high band, the uptrend begins. Lets look the original form of indicator and learn how it using.
If the red line is below and the green band is above, it means that we are in uptrend, and if it is on the opposite side, it means that we are in downtrend. Therefore, it would be logical to enter a position where the trend has changed. So i added a code to find when the crossover has occured.
As you see in my strategy, it gives you signals when the trend has changed. But sometimes it is not enough only using this indicator itself. So lets look 2 indicator together in one chart.
Look circle SSL is saying it is in downtrend but Coral is saying it has entered in uptrend. if we just look to coral signal it can misleads us. So it can be better to look another indicator for validating our signals.
3 — Heikin Ashi RSI Oscillator by JayRogers
The Heikin-Ashi technique is used by technical traders to identify a given trend more easily. Heikin-Ashi has a smoother look because it is essentially taking an average of the movement. There is a tendency with Heikin-Ashi for the candles to stay red during a downtrend and green during an uptrend, whereas normal candlesticks alternate color even if the price is moving dominantly in one direction. This indicator actually recalculates the RSI indicator with the logic of heikin ashi. Due to smoothing, the bars are formed with a slight lag, reflecting the trend rather than the exact price movement. So lets look the original version to understand more clearly. If red bars turn to green bars it means uptrend may begin, if green bars turn to red it means downtrend may begin.
As you see HARSI giving lots of signal some of them is really good but some of them are not very well. Because it gives so much signals Now i will change time period and lets look same chart again.
Now results are better because of heikin ashi's logic. it is not suitable for day traders, it gives more accurate result when using the time period is longer. But it can be useful to use this indicator in short time periods using with other indicators. So you may catch the trend changes more accurately.
4 — MACD DEMA by ToFFF
This indicator uses a double EMA and MACD algorithm to analyze the direction of the trend. Though it might seem a tough task to manage the trades with the help of MACD DEMA once you know how the proper way to interpret the signal lines, it will be an easy task.
This indicator also smoothens the signal lines with the time series algorithm which eventually makes the higher time frame important. So, expecting better results in the lower time frame can result in big losses as the data reading from the MACD DEMA will not be accurate. In order to understand the function of this indicator, you have to know the functions of the EMA also.
The exponential moving average tends to give more priority to the recent price changes. So, expecting better results when the volatility is very high is a very risky approach to trade the market. Moreover, the MACD has some lagging issues compared to the EMA, so it is super important to use a trading method that focuses on the higher time frame only. What does MACD 12 26 Close 9 mean? When the DEMA-9 crosses above the MACD(12,26), this is considered a bearish signal. It means the trend in the stock – its magnitude and/or momentum – is starting to shift course. When the MACD(12,26) crosses above the DEMA-9, this is considered a bullish signal. Lets see this indicator on Chart.
When the blue line crossover red line it is good time to buy. As you see from the chart i put arrows where the crossover are appeared.
When the red line crossover blue line it is good time to sell or exit from position.
5 — WaveTrend Oscillator by LazyBear
This is a technical indicator that creates high and low bands between two values. It then creates a trend indicator that draws waves with highs and lows within these boundaries. WaveTrend is a widely used indicator for finding direction of an asset.
Calculation period: number of candles used to calculate WaveTrend, defaults to 10. Averaging period: number of candles used to average WaveTrend, defaults to 21.
As you see in chart when the lines crossover occured my strategy gives buy or sell signals.
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█ HOW TO USE
I hope you understand how the indicators I mentioned above work and what they are used for. Now, I will explain in detail how to use the strategy I have created.
When you enter the settings section, you will see 5 types of indicators. If you want to use the signals of the indicators, simply tick the box next to the indicators. Also, under each option there is an area where you can set the "lookback". This setting is a field that will make the signals overlap when you select more than one option. If you are going to trade with only one option, you should make sure that this field is 0. Otherwise, it may continue to generate as many signals as you choose.
Lets see in chart for easy understanding.
As you see chart, if i chose only HARSI with lookback 0 (HARSI and CORAL should be 1 minumum because of algorithm-we looking 1 bar before, others 0 because we are looking crossovers), it will give signals only when harsı bar's color changed. But when i changed Lookback as 7 it will be like this in chart.
Now i will choose 2 indicator with settings of their lookback 0.
As you see it will give signals when both of them occurs same time. But HARSI is an indicator giving very early signal so we can enter position 5-6 bars after the first bar color change. So i will change HARSI Lookback settings as 7. Lets look what happens when we use lookback option.
So it wil be useful to change lookback settings to find best signals in each time period and in each symbol. But it shouldnt be too high. Because you can be late to catch trend's starting.
this is an image of MACD and WAVE trend used and lookback option are both 6.
Now lets see an example with 3 options are chosen with lookback option 11-1-5
Now lets talk about indicators settings. After strategy options you will see each indicators settings, you can change their settings as you desired. So each indicators signal will be changed according to your adjustment.
I left strategy options with default settings. You can change it manually as if you want.
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█ LIMITATIONS: Don't rely on non-standard charts results. For example Heikin Ashi is a technical analysis method used with the traditional candlestick chart.Heikin Ashi vs. Candlestick Chart: The decisive visual difference between Heikin Ashi and the traditional chart is that Heikin Ashi flattens the traditional candlestick chart using a modified formula.
The primary advantage of Heikin Ashi is that it makes the chart more reader-friendly and helps users identify and analyze trends .
Because Heikin Ashi provides averaged price information rather than real-time price and reacts slowly to volatility — not suitable for scalpers and high-frequency traders. I added HARSI indicator as a supportive signal because it is useful with using CORAL and SSL channel indicators. If you change your candle types to Heikin Ashi , your profit will change in good way but dont rely on it.
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█ THANKS:
Special thanks to authors of the scripts that i used.
@LazyBear and @ErwinBeckers and @JayRogers and @ToFFF
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█ DISCLAIMER
Any trade decisions you make are entirely your own responsibility.
Barndorff-Nielsen and Shephard Jump Statistic [Loxx]The following comments and descriptions are from from "Problems in the Application of Jump Detection Tests to Stock Price Data" by Michael William Schwert; Professor George Tauchen, Faculty Advisor.
This indicator applies several jump detection tests to intraday stock price data sampled at various frequencies. It finds that the choice of sampling frequency has an effect on both the amount of jumps detected by these tests, as well as the timing of those jumps. Furthermore, although these tests are designed to identify the same phenomenon, they find different amounts and timing of jumps when performed on the same data. These results suggest that these jump detection tests are probably identifying different types of jump behavior in stock price data, so they are not really substitutes for one another.
In recent years there has been a great deal of interest in studying jumps in asset price movements. Reasons why it is important to know when and how frequently jumps occur include risk management and the pricing and hedging of derivative contracts. Investors would benefit greatly from knowing the properties of jumps, since large instantaneous drops in asset prices result in large instantaneous losses. The effect of jumps on derivative pricing is equally significant, especially considering the important role derivatives play in modern financial markets. When asset price movements are continuous, investors can perfectly hedge derivative contracts such as options, but when jumps occur, they cause a change in the derivative price that is non-linear to the change in the price of the underlying asset. Thus, jumps introduce an unhedgeable risk to the holders of derivative contracts.
The ability to identify realized jumps in the financial markets could provide helpful information such as how frequently jumps occur, how large the jumps are, and whether they tend to occur in clusters. With this goal in mind, several authors have developed tests to determine whether or not an asset price movement is a statistically significant jump. These tests take advantage of the high-frequency intraday price data available today through electronic sources. Barndorff-Nielsen and Shephard (2004, 2006) use the difference between an estimate of variance and a jump-robust measure of variance to detect jumps over the course of a day. Approaching the problem differently, Jiang and Oomen (2007) exploit high order sample moments of returns to identify days that include jumps. Aїt-Sahalia and Jacod (2008) also exploit high order sample moments of returns to detect jumps by comparing price data sampled at two different frequencies. Lee and Mykland (2007) test for jumps at individual price observations by scaling returns by a local volatility measure. While these tests employ different strategies for detecting jumps, they are all designed to identify the same phenomenon.
For this indicator we are focused on the Barndorff-Nielsen and Shephard jump statistic.
Barndorff-Nielsen and Shephard (2004, 2006) developed a test that uses high-frequency price data to determine whether there is a jump over the course of a day. Their test compares two measures of variance: Realized Variance, which converges to the integrated variance plus a jump component as the time between observations approaches zero; and Bipower Variation, which converges to the integrated variance as the time between observations approaches zero, and is robust to jumps in the price path, an important fact for this application. The integrated variance of a price process is the integral of the square of the σ(t) term in (2.2.2), taken over the course of a day. Since prices cannot be observed continuously, one cannot calculate integrated variance exactly, and must estimate it instead.
For our purposes here, this is calculated as:
r = log(p /p )
This the geometric return from time ti-1 to time ti.
Then, Realized Variance and Bipower Variation are described by the following functions (see code for details)
realizedVariance(float src, int per)
and
bipowerVariance(float src, int per)
Huang and Tauchen (2005) also consider Relative Jump, a measure that approximates the percentage of total variance attributable to jumps:
RJ = (RV - BV) / RV
This statistic approximates the ratio of the sum of squared jumps to the total variance and is useful because it scales out long-term trends in volatility so one can compare the relative contribution of jumps to the variance of two price series with different volatilities.
To develop a statistical test to determine whether there is a significant difference between RV and BV, one needs an estimate of integrated quarticity. Andersen, Bollerslev, and Diebold (2004) recommend using a jump-robust realized Tri-Power Quarticity, I've included commentary in code to better explain how this indicator is collocated. See code for details.
How to use this indicator
When the bars turn gray, it's an indication that a jump has occurred in the market. It serves a warning that price jumped. I've included a percent point function (or inverse cumulative distribution function) to cutoff Z-score values depicted by histogram values. The top line at 3 is the empirical maximum Z-score value a serves merely as a point of reference. The Red line is the cutoff line calculated using PPF. When the histogram is green, no jumps have been detected. This indicator also includes alerts, signals, and bar coloring. I've also expanded the possible source types using my own Expanded Source Types library so you can test different log return methods as inputs. It is recommended to use window sizes of 7, 16, 78, 110, 156, and 270 returns for sampling intervals of 1 week, 1 day, 1 hour, 30 minutes, 15 minutes, and 5 minutes, respectively.
If you'ed like to better understand PPF, see here: Distributions in python
Included:
Bar coloring
Signals
Alerts
Loxx's Expanded Source Types
Leavitt Convolution Slope [CC]The Leavitt Convolution Slope indicator was created by Jay Leavitt (Stocks and Commodities Oct 2019, page 11), who is most well known for creating the Volume-Weighted Average Price indicator. This indicator is very similar to the Leavitt Convolution indicator but the big difference is that it is getting the slope instead of predicting the next Convolution value. I changed quite a few things from the original source code so let me know if you like these changes. I added a normalization function using code from a good friend @loxx that I recommend to leave on but feel free to experiment with it. Last but not least, the unsure levels are essentially acting as a buy or sell threshold. I personally recommend to buy or sell for zero crossovers but another option would be to buy or sell for crossovers using the unsure levels. I have color coded the lines to turn light green for a normal buy signal or dark green for a strong buy signal and light red for a normal sell signal, and dark red for a strong sell signal.
This is another indicator in a series that I'm publishing to fulfill a special request from @ashok1961 so let me know if you ever have any special requests for me.
