CAGR ProjectionThe CAGR Projection Indicator is a tool designed to visualize the potential growth of an asset over time based on a specified annual growth rate. This indicator overlays a projection line on the price chart, allowing traders and investors to compare actual price movements with a hypothetical growth trajectory.
One of the key features of this indicator is the ability for users to input their expected annual growth rate as a percentage. This flexibility allows for various scenarios to be modeled, from conservative estimates to more optimistic projections. Additionally, the indicator allows users to set a specific start date for the projection, enabling analysis from any chosen point in time.
The projection calculation is dynamic, adjusting for different timeframes and updating with each new bar on the chart. The indicator initializes either at the specified start date or when the first valid price is encountered. Using the initial price as a base, the indicator calculates the projected price for each subsequent bar using the compound growth formula. The calculation accounts for the specific timeframe of the chart, ensuring accurate projections regardless of whether the chart displays daily, weekly, or other intervals.
The projected growth is plotted as a blue line on the chart, providing a clear visual comparison between the actual price movement and the hypothetical growth trajectory. This visual representation makes it easy for users to quickly assess how an asset is performing relative to the expected growth rate.
This tool has several practical applications. Investors can use it to set realistic growth targets for their investments. By comparing actual price movements to the projection line, users can quickly assess if an asset is outperforming or underperforming relative to the expected growth rate. Furthermore, multiple instances of the indicator can be used with different growth rates to visualize various potential outcomes, facilitating scenario analysis.
The indicator also offers customization options, such as displaying a label showing the annual growth rate used for the projection, and the ability to adjust the color of the projection line to suit individual preferences or chart setups.
In summary, this CAGR Projection indicator serves as a valuable tool for both long-term investors and traders, offering a simple yet effective way to visualize potential growth scenarios and assess investment performance over time. It combines ease of use with powerful analytical capabilities, making it a useful addition to any trader's or investor's toolkit.
Projection
Nami Bands with Future Projection [FXSMARTLAB]The Nami Bands ( Inspired by "Nami", meaning "wave" in Japanese) are two dynamic bands around price data: an upper band and a lower band. These bands are calculated based on an Asymmetric Linear Weighted Moving Average of price and a similarly asymmetric weighted standard deviation. This weighting method emphasizes recent data without overreacting to short-term price changes, thus smoothing the bands in line with prevailing market conditions.
Advantages and Benefits of Using the Indicator
* Volatility Analysis: The bands expand and contract with market volatility, helping traders assess periods of high and low volatility. Narrow bands indicate low volatility and potential consolidation, while wide bands suggest increased volatility and potential price movement.
* Dynamic Support and Resistance Levels: By adapting to recent trends, the bands serve as dynamic support (lower band) and resistance (upper band) levels, which traders can use for entry and exit signals.
* Overbought and Oversold Conditions: When prices reach or cross the bands’ outer limits, it may signal overbought (upper band) or oversold (lower band) conditions, suggesting possible reversals or trend slowdowns.
* Trend Confirmation and Continuation: The slope of the central moving average confirms trend direction. An upward slope generally indicates a bullish trend, while a downward slope suggests a bearish trend.
* Anticipating Breakouts and Reversals: The projected bands help identify where price movements may head, allowing traders to anticipate potential breakouts or reversals based on projected support and resistance.
Indicator Parameters
Source (src): The price data used for calculations, by default set to the average of high, low, and close (hlc3).
Length: The period over which calculations are made, defaulted to 50 periods.
Projection Length: The length for future band projection, defaulted to 20 periods.
StdDev Multiplier (mult): A multiplier for the standard deviation, defaulted to 2.0.
Internal Calculations
1. Asymmetric Linear Weighted Moving Average of Price
The indicator uses an Asymmetric Linear Weighted Moving Average (ALWMA) to calculate a central value for the price.
Asymmetric Weighting: This weighting technique assigns the highest weight to the most recent value, with weights decreasing linearly as the data points become older. This structure provides a nuanced focus on recent price trends, while still reflecting historical price levels.
2. Asymmetric Weighted Standard Deviation
The standard deviation in this indicator is also calculated using asymmetric weighting:
Purpose of Asymmetric Weighted Standard Deviation: Rather than aiming for high sensitivity to recent data, this standard deviation measure smooths out volatility by integrating weighted values across the length period, stabilizing the overall measurement of price variability.
This approach yields a balanced view of volatility, capturing broader market trends without being overly reactive to short-lived changes.
3. Upper and Lower Bands
The upper and lower bands are created by adding and subtracting the asymmetric weighted standard deviation from the asymmetric weighted average of price. This creates a dynamic envelope that adjusts to both recent price trends and the smoothed volatility measure:
These bands represent adaptable support and resistance levels that shift with recent market volatility.
Future Band Projection
The indicator provides a projection of the bands based on their current slope.
1. Calculating the Slope of the Bands
The slope for each band is derived from the difference between the current and previous values of each band.
2. Projecting the Bands into the Future
For each period into the future, up to the defined Projection Length, the bands are projected using the current slope.
This feature offers an anticipated view of where support and resistance levels may move, providing insight for future market behavior based on current trends.
Dual price forecast with Projection Zone [FXSMARTLAB]The Dual Price Forecast with Projection Zone indicator is built to simulate potential future price paths based on historical price movements over two defined lookback periods. By running multiple trials (or simulations) on these historical price movements, the indicator achieves a more robust forecast, incorporating the inherent variability of price behavior.
Key Components and Calculation Details
1. Lookback Periods and Historical Price Movements
Lookback Period 1 and Lookback Period 2 specify the range of past data used to generate each projection. For each period, the indicator calculates the price variations (differences between the closing and opening prices) and stores these in arrays.
These historical price variations capture the volatility and price patterns within each period, serving as templates for future price behavior.
2. Trials: Purpose and Function
The trials are a critical element in the projection calculation. Each trial represents a single simulation of possible future price movements, derived from a random reordering of the historical price variations in each lookback period.
By running multiple trials , the indicator explores various sequences of historical movements, simulating different possible future paths. Each trial adds to the projection’s robustness by capturing a unique potential price path based on past behavior.
Running these multiple trials allows the indicator to account for randomness in price behavior, making the projections more comprehensive by covering a range of scenarios rather than relying on a single deterministic forecast.
3. Reverse Option
The reverse option allows the indicator to invert the direction of price movements within each lookback period. When enabled, historical uptrends are treated as downtrends, and vice versa.
This feature is particularly valuable in scenarios where traders expect a potential reversal in market direction. By enabling the reverse option, the indicator can simulate what might happen if past trends inverted, providing an alternative forecast path that considers possible market reversals.
This allows traders to assess both continuation and reversal scenarios, giving them a more balanced view of potential future price paths and helping them prepare for either market direction.
4. Generating the Average Projection Path
Once the trials are complete, the indicator calculates an average projected price path for each lookback period by averaging the results of all trials. This average represents the most likely price trend based on historical data and provides a smoothed projection that mitigates extreme outliers.
By averaging across all trial paths, the indicator generates a more reliable and balanced forecast line, smoothing out the fluctuations that might appear if only one trial or a small number of trials were used.
5. Projection Zone Visualization
The indicator plots the two average projection paths (one for each lookback period) as Projection 1 and Projection 2, each in a user-defined color.
The Projection Zone is the area between these two lines, filled with a semi-transparent color. This zone visually represents the potential range of future price movement, highlighting where prices are likely to oscillate if historical trends persist.
The Projection Zone effectively functions as a potential support and resistance boundary, providing traders with a visual reference for possible price fluctuations within a specific range.
6. Display of Lookback Zones
To give context to the projections, the indicator can also display colored lookback zones on the chart. These zones correspond to Lookback Period 1 and Lookback Period 2 and are color-coded to match their respective projection lines.
These zones allow traders to see the sections of historical data used in the calculation, helping them understand which past price behaviors influenced the current projections.
Benefits of the Indicator
The "Dual Price Forecast with Projection Zone" indicator provides a multi-scenario forecast based on past price dynamics. Its use of trials ensures that projections are not based on a single deterministic path but on a range of possible scenarios that better reflect the inherent randomness in financial markets.
By generating a probabilistic forecast within a defined zone, the indicator helps traders to:
Anticipate potential price ranges and areas of support/resistance based on historical trends.
Understand the influence of different timeframes (short-term and long-term lookbacks) on future price behavior.
Make informed decisions by visualizing the likely variability of future prices within a controlled projection zone.
Prepare for both continuation and reversal scenarios, thanks to the reverse option. This feature is especially useful in markets where trends may change direction, as it allows traders to explore what might happen
Anchored Monte Carlo Shuffled Projection [LuxAlgo]The Anchored Monte Carlo Shuffled Projection tool randomly simulates future price points based on historical bar movements made before a user-anchored point in time.
By anchoring our data and projections to a single point in time, users can better understand and reflect on how the price played out while taking into consideration our random simulations.
🔶 USAGE
After selecting the indicator to apply to the chart, you will be prompted to "Set the Anchor Point". Do so by clicking on the desired location on your chart, only time is used as the anchor point.
Note: To select a new anchor point when applied to the chart, click on the 'More' dropdown next to the indicator status bar (○○○), then select "Reset points...".
Alternate Method: You are also able to click and drag the vertical line that displays on the anchor point bar when the indicator is highlighted.
By randomly simulating bar movements, a range is developed of potential price action which could be utilized to locate future price development as well as potential support/resistance levels.
Performing numerous simulations and taking the average at each step will converge toward the result highlighted by the "Average Line", and can point out where the price might develop, assuming the trend and amount of volatility persist.
Current closing price + Sum of changes in the calculation window
This constraint will cause the simulations always to display an endpoint consistent with the current lookback's slope.
While this may be helpful to some traders, this indicator includes an option to produce a less biased range, as seen below:
🔶 DETAILS
The Anchored Monte Carlo Shuffled Projection tool creates simulations based on prices within a user-set lookback window originating at the specified anchor point. Simulations are done as follows:
Collect each bar's price changes in the user-set window.
Randomize the order of each change in the window.
Project the cumulative sum of the shuffled changes from the current closing price.
Collect data on each point along the way.
This is the process for the Default calculation; for the 'Randomize Direction' calculation, when added onto the front for every other change, the value is inverted, creating the randomized endpoints for each simulation.
The script contains each simulation's data for that bar, with a maximum of 1000 simulations.
To get a glimpse behind the scenes, each simulation (up to 99) can be viewed using the 'Visualize Simulations' Options, as seen below.
Because the script holds the full simulation data, the script can also calculate this data, such as standard deviations.
In this script the Standard deviation lines are the average of all standard deviations across the vertical data groups, this provides a singular value that can be displayed a distance away from the simulation center line.
🔶 SETTINGS
Lookback: Sets the number of Bars to include in calculations.
Simulation Count: Sets the number of randomized simulations to calculate. (Max 1000)
Randomize Direction: See Details Above. Creates a more 'Normalized' Distribution
Visualize Simulations: See Details Above. Turns on Visualizations, and colors are randomly generated. Visualized max does not cap the calculated max. If 1000 simulations are used, the data will be from 1000 simulations, however, only the last 99 simulations will be visualized.
🔹 Standard Deviations
Standard Deviation Multiplier: Sets the multiplier to use for the Standard Deviation distance away from the center line.
🔹 Style
Extend Lines: Extends the Simulated Value Lines into the future for further reference and analysis.
The Next Pivot (With History) [Mxwll]Introducing "The Next Pivot (With History)"!
With permission from the author @KioseffTrading
The script "The Next Pivot" has been restructured to show historical projections!
Features
Find the most similar price sequence per time frame change.
Forecast almost any public indicator! Not just price!
Forecast any session i.e. 4Hr, 1Hr, 15m, 1D, 1W
Forecast ZigZag for any session
Spearmen
Pearson
Absolute Difference
Cosine Similarity
Mean Squared Error
Kendall
Forecasted linear regression channel
The image above shows/explains some of the indicator's capabilities!
Additionally, you can project almost any indicator!
Should load times permit it, the script can search all bar history for a correlating sequence. This won't always be possible, contingent on the forecast length, correlation length, and the number of bars on the chart.
If a load time error occurs, simple reduce the "Bars Back To Search" parameter!
The script can only draw 500 bars into the future. For whatever time frame you are on and the session you wish to project, ensure it will not exceeded a 500-bar forecast!
Reasonable Assessment
The script uses various similarity measures to find the "most similar" price sequence to what's currently happening. Once found, the subsequent price move (to the most similar sequence) is recorded and projected forward.
So,
1: Script finds most similar price sequence
2: Script takes what happened after and projects forward
While this may be useful, the projection is simply the reaction to a possible one-off "similarity" to what's currently happening. Random fluctuations are likely and, if occurring, similarities between the current price sequence and the "most similar" sequence are plausibly coincidental.
Thanks!
Pivot Profit Target [Mxwll]Introducing the Pivot Profit Target!
This script identifies recent pivot highs/lows and calculates the expected minimum distance for the next pivot, which acts as an approximate profit target.
The image above details the indicator's output.
The image above shows a table consisting of projection statistics.
How to use
The Pivot Profit Targets can be used to approximate a profit target for your trade.
Identify where your entry is relative to the most recent pivot, and assess whether the minimum expected distance for the most recent pivot has been exceeded. Treat the zones as an approximation.
If your trade aligns with the most recent pivot - treat the minimum expected distance zone as a potential profit target area. Of course, price might stop short or continue beyond the projection area!
That's it! Just a short and sweet script; thank you!
Historical Price Projection [LuxAlgo]The Historical Price Projection tool aims to project future price behavior based on historical price behavior plus a user defined growth factor.
The main feature of this tool is to plot a future price forecast with a surrounding area that exactly matches the price behavior of the selected period, with or without added drift.
Other features of the tool include:
User-selected period up to 500 bars anywhere on the chart within 5000 bars
User selected growth factor from 0 (no growth) to 100, this is the percentage of drift to be used in the forecast.
User selected area wide
Show/hide forecast area
🔶 USAGE
This tool generates a price projection with exactly the same price behavior over the period selected by the user, plus a growth factor .
The user must confirm the selection of the anchor point in order for the tool to be executed; this can be done directly on the chart by clicking on any bar, or via the date field in the settings panel.
As we can see on this chart, the four phases of the market cycle are clearly defined and marked, so we choose the distribution phase as our anchor point because in our analysis, we want to see how the market would behave if we were currently at the same point in the cycle.
In the image above, the growth factor parameter is set to 0 so that the projection matches the selection. The tool will use up to 500 bars after the selection point.
The growth factor is defined as the percentage of drift that the tool will use.
Drift is defined as follows:
For periods with a positive return: average negative return within the period
For negative return periods: average positive return within the period
On the chart above, we have selected the same period but added a growth factor of 10, so that the tool uses a 10% drift in its calculations of future prices.
As the return in the selected period is negative, the added drift will make the projection more bearish than the prices from the selection.
On this chart we have changed the selected period, we have chosen the accumulation phase of the last cycle as the anchor point, again with a growth factor of 10%.
As we can see, prices explode higher, making the projection very bullish, as the added effect of both the bullish selected period and the 10% drift is taken into account.
This last chart is a long-term chart, a quarterly chart of the Dow, and it will serve as a review exercise.
What if... everything goes south and the crash of '29 is repeated?
The answer is in the chart, and it is not for the faint of heart
In this case we have chosen a growth factor of 0 to see exactly the same price behaviour projected into the future.
🔶 SETTINGS
🔹 Data Gathering
Anchor point: Starting point for data collection, up to 500 bars will be used.
🔹 Data Transformation
Growth Factor: Values from 0 to 100, is the amount of drift used to calculate the next price in the series.
Area Width: Values from 0 to 100, controls the width of the area around the forecast as an increment/decrement of the growth factor.
🔹 Style
Price line width: Size of the price line.
Bullish color
Bearish color
Show Area: Show forecast area.
Area color
MA+ ProjectionThe "MA+ Projection" indicator is designed to visualize the potential future direction of a moving average, taking into account the impact of historical data loss. It is primarily aimed at providing a practical perspective on how moving averages could evolve as older data points are no longer considered.
Key Features:
Supported Moving Averages: SMA, EMA, WMA, VWMA, and VAWMA (Volume Adjusted WMA).
Flexible Time Span Settings: Customize the moving average length in bars, minutes, or days.
Adjustable Projection Scope: Set a percentage of the measurement to project forward.
Projection 'Cone': Show/hide the deviation and control the multiple.
Use Last Source Value: An option to add the latest known value to the moving window instead of only letting the window shrink. (Enabled by default.)
How It Works:
Given the specified parameters, it takes the selected moving average type (a known formula like SMA, EMA, or WMA), and projects the future data points by continuing to move the data 'window' forward without adding any more data. By default, it extends the average by assuming the price hasn't changed after the last bar. Alternatively, the projection can be the result of shrinking the window as it moves forward without adding any new data points.
Note:
This tool is for visual projection, not prediction. Its purpose is to aid in the analysis of potential future trends based on historical data, not to provide definitive market forecasts.
Machine Learning: Support and Resistance [YinYangAlgorithms]Overview:
Support and Resistance is normally based upon Pivot Points and Highest Highs and Lowest Lows. Many times coders even incorporate Volume, RSI and other factors into the equation. However there may be a downside to doing a pure technical approach based on historical levels. We live in a time where Machine Learning is becoming more and more used; thus we have decided to create a Machine Learning Support and Resistance Projection based Indicator. Rather than using traditional Support and Resistance calculations using historical data, we have taken a rather different approach. This Indicator instead attempts to Predict and Project where Support and Resistance locations will be based on a Machine Learning Model using a form of KNN (k-Nearest Neighbors).
Since this indicator creates a Projection of where it deems Support and Resistance will be, it has the ability to move its Support and Resistance before the price even gets to it if it believes it will surpass its projections. This may create a more accurate placement of Support and Resistance as they’re not based on historical levels.
This Indicator does not Repaint.
How it works:
This Indicator makes its projections based on the source you provide (by default close) of the previous bar and submits the source, RSI and EMA to our Projection Function to get its projection of the current bar.
The Projection function essentially calculates potential movement after finding the differences between the source the MA from the current bar, previous bar and average over the span of Machine Learning Length.
Potential movement is defined as:
Average Difference + Average(Machine Learning Average, Average Last Distance)
Average Difference: (Absolute value of Current Source - Current MA) - (Absolute value of Machine Learning Average - Machine Learning MA)
Average Last Distance: Average(Current Source - Current MA, Previous Source - Previous MA)
It then predicts the next bars directional movement (bullish or bearish bar) using several factors:
Previous Source > Previous MA
Current Source - Current MA > Average Source - Average MA
Current RSI > Previous RSI
Current RSI > 30 and Previous RSI <= 30
Current RSI < 70 and Previous RSI >= 70
This helps us to predict the direction the next bar may move.
We then calculate a multiplier that we apply to our Potential Movement value to get our final result which is our Current Bars Close Projection.
Our multiplier is calculated using:
(Current RSI > 30 and Previous RSI <= 30) OR (Current RSI < 70 and Previous RSI >= 70)
Current Source - Current MA > Previous Source - Previous MA
We then create an array and fill it with the previous X projections (Machine Learning Length) and send it to another function. This function, if told to, will sort the data accordingly and then output the KNN average of the length given.
We calculate and plot various KNN lengths to create different Zones:
Strong Support: Length of 2 but sort the data Ascending (low to high)
Strong Resistance: Length of 2 but sort the data Descending (high to low)
Support: Length of Machine Length Length / 10 or Min of 2 sorted by Ascending
Resistance: Length of Machine Length Length / 10 or Min of 2 sorted by Descending
There are also 4 other plots you may be wondering what they are, there is your AVG, VWMA, Long Term Memory and Current Projection.
By default your Current Projection is disabled in settings but you can enable it if you are curious to see how the projections for each close are calculated. It is, however, not a crucial point of interest (white line).
The average is simply the average value of the Machine Learning Data (purple line).
The VWMA is a VWMA calculation applied to our Data over a length specified in settings (by default 1)(blue line). The VWMA is crucial when combined with the Avg as they can cross over and under each other. These crosses represent potential Bullish and Bearish zones.
Lastly, but certainly not least, we have the Long Term Memory (maroon line). The Long Term Memory can be displayed either as an ‘Average’, ‘Hard Line’ or ‘None’. The Long Term Average is only updated every Machine Learning Length Bar Index’s and is populated with the average of the Machine Learning Data. For Instance, if Machine Learning Length is set to 100, the Long Term Memory is only updated every 100 bars, and since its length is the same as the Machine Learning Length, that means its data is composed of 10,000 bars worth of data. The Long Term Memory may be very beneficial for determining where Support and Resistance lie over the Long Term within a Machine Learning Algorithm. When set to ‘Average’ it plots the connection lines diagonally, and although they may be more visually appealing, they’re less useful when it comes to actually seeing support and resistance as generally speaking, support and resistance lie on the horizontal. When set to ‘Hard Line’ the Long Term Memory is connected with hard lines and holds the price value until the next time it is updated. This makes it much more useful for potentially identifying Support and Resistance.
Tutorial:
Here is an overview of what the Indicator looks like, now let's start to dissect it.
In the example above we can see how all of the lines between the Major Support and Resistance zones may act as BOTH Support and Resistance depending on which side the price is currently on. In the circle on the left, we can see how it can fluctuate between the two. If you look at the circle on the right, we can see how the Average line acts as a strong support before it fails to maintain it. Generally speaking, most Support and Resistance locations may potentially fail to hold after 3 tests, as the Average did in this example.
As you can see, the Support and Resistance doesn’t wait to be tested before adjusting, which is why there are 2 lines which create their zones. The inner line is the Support/Resistance and the outer line is the Strong Support/Resistance. The Yellow Circle shows the inner line was able to calculate the moving resistance correctly and then adjusted accordingly as it was projecting the price to keep increasing. However, if you look at the White Circle, you can see that since there was first a crash, and then parabolic movement, that the inner zone could not move and predict the resistance as well as the outer zone could.
We consider the price to be ‘Overvalued’ when it is above the VWMA (blue line) and ‘Undervalued’ when it is below the VWMA. It is considered ‘fair’ price when it is within the VWMA to Average zone (between the blue and purple lines). If you look at the example above, you’ll notice where the two yellow circles are, it is not only considered ‘Overvalued’, but it then proceeds to ride the inner resistance line upwards. This is common when the market is overly bullish and vice versa when it is bearish. Please keep in mind, although it is common, it doesn’t mean a correction can’t happen.
In this example above we look at the last bull run that may have started due to the halving. This bull run was very bullish as you can see in the example above. The price was constantly sitting within the Resistance Zone and the VWMA that was very close to it was constantly acting as a Support. Naturally, due to the Algorithm used in this Indicator, as the momentum starts to slow down, the VWMA (blue line) will start to space out more and more from the Resistance Zone. This doesn’t mean the momentum is gone, it just means it may be slowing down.
Unfortunately we have to study the Bear Market with a different perspective than the Bull Market. However, there are still some similarities within the two. If you refer to the example above and the previous example, you can clearly see that the Bull Market loves to stay with the Resistance Zone and use the VWMA as a Support. However, the Bear Market does not. This is a normal occurrence, however we can see from the example above you may see a correction / horizontal movement when the Outer Support Line is touched. If you look at all 3 yellow circles, the Outer Support Line was touched, then either a small correction or horizontal consolidation occurred.
We will conclude our Tutorial here, hopefully you’ll be able to benefit from a moving Support and Resistance calculated with Machine Learning that projects its locations, rather than using traditional calculations.
Settings:
Source: This source is the base for all our calculations
Machine Learning Length: How much projection data are we storing and using to make calculations.
Smoothing Length: We need to smooth calculations such as RSI, EMA and VWMA. What length are we smoothing it with?
VWMA ML Projection Length: How far into our Machine Learning data should we average for our VWMA. Please note the 'Smoothing Length' is still applied here after getting the Projection Average.
Long Term Memory: Long term memory has the same storage length but is only updated once per Machine Learning Length. For instance, if Machine Learning Length is 100, it will save the Average of our data once every 100 bars. This means its memory is an average of 10,000 bars of Machine Learning. 'Average' connects its values diagonally whereas 'Hard Line' holds its value until it changes.
Use Average Last Distance In Potential Movement: This can help accuracy but generally also displaces the Support and Resistance by projecting it further.
Show Current Projection: Projections occur for each bar, and our Machine Learning utilizes these projections by storing and evaluating them. This toggle will display the Current Projection Line which is used to create all our Projections.
If you have any questions, comments, ideas or concerns please don't hesitate to contact us.
HAPPY TRADING!
YinYang Bar ForecastOverview:
YinYang Bar Forecast is a prediction indicator. It predicts the movement for High, Low, Open and Close for up to 13 bars into the future. We created this Indicator as we felt the TradingView community could benefit from a bar forecast as there wasn’t any currently available.
Our YinYang Bar Forecast is something we plan on continuously working on to better improve it, but at its current state it is still very useful and decently accurate. It features many calculations to derive what it thinks the future bars will hold. Let’s discuss some of the logic behind it:
Each bar has its High, Low, Open and Close calculated individually for highest accuracy. Within these calculations we first check which bar it is we are calculating and base our span back length that we are getting our data from based on the bar index we are generating. This helps us get a Moving Average for this bar index.
We take this MA and we apply our Custom Volume Filter calculation on it, which is essentially us dividing the current bars volume over the average volume in the last ‘Filtered Length’ (Setting) length. We take this decimal and multiply it on our MA and smooth it out with a VWMA.
We take the new Volume Filtered MA and apply a RSI Filter calculation on it. RSI Filter is where we take the difference between the high and low of this bar and we multiply it with an RSI calculation using our Volume Filtered MA. We take the result of that multiplication and either add or subtract it from the Volume Filtered MA based on if close > open. This makes our RSI Filtered MA.
Next, we do an EMA Strength Calculation which is where we check if close > ema(close, ‘EMA Averaged Length’) (Setting). Based on this condition we assign a multiplier that is applied to our RSI Filtered MA. We divide by how many bars we are predicting and add a bit to each predictive bar so that the further we go into the future the stronger the strength is.
Next we check RSI and RSI MA levels and apply multiplications based on its RSI levels and if it is greater than or less than the MA. Also it is affected by if the RSI is <= 30 and >= 70.
Finally we check the MFI and MFI MA levels and like RSI we apply multiplications based on its MFI levels and if it is greater than or less than the MA. It is also affected by if the MFI is <= 30 and >= 70.
Please note the way we calculate this may change in the future, this is just currently what we deemed works best for forecasting the future bars. Also note this script uses MA calculations out of scope for efficiency but there is potential for inconsistencies.
Innately it’s main use is the projection it provides. It only draws the bars for realtime bars and not historical ones, so the best way to backtest it is with TradingView’s Replay Tool.
Well, enough of the logic behind it, let's get to understanding how to use it:
Tutorial:
So unfortunately we aren’t able to plot legit bars/candles into the future so we’ve had to do a bit of a work around using lines and fills. As you can see here we have 4 Lines and 3 Zones:
Lines:
Green: Represents the High
Orange: Represents the Open
Teal: Represents the Close
Red: Represents the Low
Zones:
High Zone: This zone is from either Open or Close to the High and is ALWAYS filled with Green.
Open/Close Zone: This zone is from the Open to the Close and is filled with either Green or Red based on if it's greater than the previous bar (real or forecasted).
Low Zone: This zone is from either Open or Close to the Low and is ALWAYS filled with Red.
As you can see generally the Forecasted bars are generally within strong pivot locations and are a good estimation of what will likely go on. Please note, the WHOLE structure of the prediction can change based on the current bars movements and the way it affects the calculations.
Let's look 1 bar back from the current bar just so we can see what it used to Forecast:
As you can see it has changed quite a bit from the previous bar, but if you look close, we drew horizontal lines around where its projecting the next bar to be (our current realtime bar), if we go back to the live chart:
Its projections were pretty close for the high and low. Generally, right now at least, it does a much better job at predicting the high and low than it does the open and close, however we will do our best to fine tune that in future updates.
Remember, this indicator is not meant to base your trades on, but rather give you a Forecast towards the general direction of the next few bars. Somewhat like weather, the farther the bar (or day for weather), the harder it is to predict. For this reason we recommend you focusing on the first few bars as they are more accurate, but review the further ones as they may help show the trend and the way that pair will move.
We will conclude this tutorial here, hopefully this Predictive Indicator can be of some help and use to you. If you have any questions, comments, ideas or concerns please let us know.
Settings:
Forecast Length: How many bars should we predict into the Future? Max 13
Each Bar Length Multiplier: For each new Forecast bar, how many more bars are averaged? Min 2
VWMA Averaged Length: All Forecast bars are put into a VWMA, what length should we use?
EMA Averaged Length: All Forecast bars are put into a EMA, what length should we use?
Filtered Length: What length should we use for Filtered Volume and RSI?
EMA Strength Length: What length should we use for the EMA Strength
HAPPY TRADING!
Inverted ProjectionThe "Inverted Projection" indicator calculates the Simple Moving Average (SMA) and draws lines representing an inverted projection. The indicator swaps the highs and lows of the projection to provide a unique perspective on price movement.
This indicator is a simple study that should not be taken seriously as a tool for predicting future price movements; it is purely intended for exploratory purposes.
Tomorrow's Custom Sessions: 4x Sessions projected into next dayTool to visualize your favored sessions for the day ahead (4x custom sessions)
-Input four custom sessions; they will be projected into the next day.
-Toggle on/off each session independently.
-Adjust multiplier UP to show more days of history (setting 0 = tomorrow only; setting 1 = today and tomorrow).
-Increase number from 1>>125 to show historical sessions/days, for backtesting purposes.
-If Set to 0, showing tomorrow only; the projected session boxes will disappear as price passes through their right hand edge.
--note: the session defaults i've written are arbitrary/not special; please choose your own--
Setting '0'; shows next day's sessions only
Week & Day Boxes Projected forward; with day-of-week labelsProjecting Week and Day boxes forward into the future, as an aide in framing the shape/profile of the coming week(s)/day(s).
////user inputs////
~toggle on/off daily and/or weekly boxes.
~input number of 2week blocks or number of 2day blocks to project forward.
~independently format colors and opacities of weekly and daily boxes.
~toggle on/off day-of-week labels (if you just want day labels, make opacity of day boxes&borders zero).
////notes////
-I have limited the project-forward numbers to keep it neat. If you want to play around with them, edit UP the FIRST integer in lines 56, 58, 62, 64 (currently set to 11,10, 41, 40 respectively). And edit UP maxvals in lines 9 and 15.
-To change the height of weekly and/or daily boxes, tweak the SECOND integer in lines 56, 58, 62, 64.
-Written for ES (S&P); tested/working on FX and BTC too.
-Starts painting/Resets at the beginning of a new week (i.e. Sunday eve).
-Sunday is blended into Monday; day's are defined as finishing at 6pm (New York Time).
Next Pivot Projection [Trendoscope]Still experimental. Extending further on the divergence backtest results - in this script we try to project next 2 pivots (including one unconfirmed pivot)
🎲 Previous experiments
1. Divergence-Backtester
2. Divergence-Backtester-V2
🎲 Additions
Apart from collecting the stats on number of occurrences of HH, HL, LH, LL - this script also keeps track of average ratio for each levels and average bars.
Based on these data, we try to calculate the next pivot projections including possible bar and price.
Cloud covering the candles indicate historical levels of average HH, HL, LH, LL projections.
Hover on projection labels to find more details in tooltips.
🎲 Overall method in a nutshell
🎲 Going bit deeper
🎯 Unconfirmed Pivot and its projection - Last pivot of the zigzag is always unconfirmed. Meaning, it can potentially repaint based on further price movements. But, projection of the unconfirmed pivot will not change as it will be based on previous two pivots - both of which are confirmed.
🎯 Next Pivot Projection - Next pivot is projected based on last two pivots - which include last unconfirmed pivot. Hence, these projections can potentially repaint based on the last pivot repaint.
🎯 Historical projections displayed as cloud - Historical projection values are displayed as cloud around pivots.
A cloud above represents area from average lower high range to average higher high range. Cloud color is green if average ratio of pivot high is more than 1. Red Otherwise.
A cloud below represents area from average higher low range to average lower low range. Cloud color is red if average ratio of pivot high is more than 1. Green otherwise
Zig Zag Ratio Simplified█ OVERVIEW
This indicator was to show ratio between zig zag. Ideally to find Fibonacci Retracement / Projection, Harmonic Patterns, ABCD, Elliot Wave and etc.
█ CREDITS
LonesomeTheBlue
█ FEATURES
Table can positioned by any position and font size can be resized.
█ USAGE / TIPS EXAMPLES (Description explained in each image)
Advanced Donchian Channels
Advanced Donchian Channels displays future donchian channel values based on the current information on the chart.
It displays a normal donchian channel at the specified user length with the future values extending from the current bar.
Depending on the direction of price movement, these values do not repaint. It is known when it does and does not repaint, and the actions are normal. See below for more information.
In a down trend, when the price is making new lows, the future "channel low" value will update every time the low is broken. The mean will also update, since the mean is the average of the channel high and channel low.
In a downtrend, the "channel high" value is concrete . It will not update until the high is broken.
Reverse these examples for uptrends.
Q;
How does it know the future values?
A:
Consider This: If we are below the current highest high, going down (aka: not setting new highs), the donchian channel "high" value will create a flat top, the flat top will start to decrease after we go further than our specified length. This is because the highest high within our specified length is no longer what it was previously. This action of time decay is a consistent movement of donchian channels . Because of this I am able to calculate these values before the current bar actually reaches them.
The indicator calculates the current length donchian channel at the current bar and then for every future bar up to your length specified it subtracts 1 from your length, calculates and displays the values accordingly.
The farthest future value is 1 length and the current bar is your specified length.
VALUES WILL ONLY BE UPDATED WHEN THE CHANNEL HIGH OR LOW IS BROKEN.
If price stays within the channel, all the future channel values will become solidified when the time reaches them.
This is not a gimmick, This data is accurate and can be used to help see future price trends
This chart should assist in visualizing what data you are seeing in this indicator.
Enjoy!
ABC 123 Harmonic Ratio Custom Range Interactive█ OVERVIEW
This indicator was designed based on Harmonic Trading : Volume One written by Scott Carney.
This is about harmonic ratios which expanded through retracement and projection.
Derivation is pretty much explained here such as Primary, Primary Derivation, Secondary Derivation and Secondary Derivation Extreme.
Derivation value depends on minimum retracement or maximum projection.
This derivation value utilize Fibonacci value which later expand to Harmonic Ratio.
█ INSPIRATION
Inspired by design, code and usage of CAGR . Basic usage of custom range / interactive, pretty much explained here . Credits to TradingView.
This build is based and visualized upon Harmonic Trading Ratios.
This build also was stripped down from XABCD Harmonic Pattern Custom Range Interactive .
█ CREDITS
Scott Carney, Harmonic Trading : Volume One (Page 18)
█ FEATURES
Table can positioned by any position and font size can be resized.
Labels can be either changed to alphabets or numbers.
█ HOW TO USE
Draw points from Point A to Point C.
Dont worry about magnet, point will attached depends on High or Low of the candle.
█ USAGE / TIPS EXAMPLES (Description explained in each image)
Leavitt Projection [CC]The Leavitt Projection indicator was created by Jay Leavitt (Stocks and Commodities Oct 2019, page 11), who is most well known for creating the Volume-Weighted Average Price indicator. This indicator is very simple but is also the building block of many other indicators, so I'm starting with the publication of this one. Since this is the first in a series I will be publishing, keep in mind that the concepts introduced in this script will be the same across the entire series. The recommended strategy for how to trade with these indicators is to plot a fast version and a slow version and go long when the fast version crosses over the slow version or to go short when the fast version crosses under the slow version. I have color coded the lines to turn light green for a normal buy signal or dark green for a strong buy signal and light red for a normal sell signal, and dark red for a strong sell signal.
I know many of you have wondered where I have been, and my personal life has become super hectic. I was recently hired full-time by TradingView, and my wife is pregnant with twins, and she is due in a few months. I will do my absolute best to get back to posting scripts regularly, but I will post a bunch today in the meantime to fulfill a special request from one of my loyal followers (@ashok1961).
Fourier Extrapolator of Price w/ Projection Forecast [Loxx]Due to popular demand, I'm pusblishing Fourier Extrapolator of Price w/ Projection Forecast.. As stated in it's twin indicator, this one is also multi-harmonic (or multi-tone) trigonometric model of a price series xi, i=1..n, is given by:
xi = m + Sum( a*Cos(w*i) + b*Sin(w*i), h=1..H )
Where:
xi - past price at i-th bar, total n past prices;
m - bias;
a and b - scaling coefficients of harmonics;
w - frequency of a harmonic ;
h - harmonic number;
H - total number of fitted harmonics.
Fitting this model means finding m, a, b, and w that make the modeled values to be close to real values. Finding the harmonic frequencies w is the most difficult part of fitting a trigonometric model. In the case of a Fourier series, these frequencies are set at 2*pi*h/n. But, the Fourier series extrapolation means simply repeating the n past prices into the future.
This indicator uses the Quinn-Fernandes algorithm to find the harmonic frequencies. It fits harmonics of the trigonometric series one by one until the specified total number of harmonics H is reached. After fitting a new harmonic , the coded algorithm computes the residue between the updated model and the real values and fits a new harmonic to the residue.
see here: A Fast Efficient Technique for the Estimation of Frequency , B. G. Quinn and J. M. Fernandes, Biometrika, Vol. 78, No. 3 (Sep., 1991), pp . 489-497 (9 pages) Published By: Oxford University Press
The indicator has the following input parameters:
src - input source
npast - number of past bars, to which trigonometric series is fitted;
Nfut - number of predicted future bars;
nharm - total number of harmonics in model;
frqtol - tolerance of frequency calculations.
The indicator plots two curves: the green/red curve indicates modeled past values and the yellow/fuchsia curve indicates the modeled future values.
The purpose of this indicator is to showcase the Fourier Extrapolator method to be used in future indicators.
Mean Shift Pivot ClusteringCore Concepts
According to Jeff Greenblatt in his book "Breakthrough Strategies for Predicting Any Market", Fibonacci and Lucas sequences are observed repeated in the bar counts from local pivot highs/lows. They occur from high to high, low to high, high to low, or low to high. Essentially, this phenomenon is observed repeatedly from any pivot points on any time frame. Greenblatt combines this observation with Elliott Waves to predict the price and time reversals. However, I am no Elliottician so it was not easy for me to use this in a practical manner. I decided to only use the bar count projections and ignore the price. I projected a subset of Fibonacci and Lucas sequences along with the Fibonacci ratios from each pivot point. As expected, a projection from each pivot point resulted in a large set of plotted data and looks like a huge gong show of lines. Surprisingly, I did notice clusters and have observed those clusters to be fairly accurate.
Fibonacci Sequence: 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34...
Lucas Sequence: 2, 1, 3, 4, 7, 11, 18, 29, 47...
Fibonacci Ratios (converted to whole numbers): 23, 38, 50, 61, 78, 127, 161...
Light Bulb Moment
My eyes may suck at grouping the lines together but what about clustering algorithms? I chose to use a gimped version of Mean Shift because it doesn't require me to know in advance how many lines to expect like K-Means. Mean shift is computationally expensive and with Pinescript's 500ms timeout, I had to make due without the KDE. In other words, I skipped the weighting part but I may try to incorporate it in the future. The code is from Harrison Kinsley . He's a fantastic teacher!
Usage
Search Radius: how far apart should the bars be before they are excluded from the cluster? Try to stick with a figure between 1-5. Too large a figure will give meaningless results.
Pivot Offset: looks left and right X number of bars for a pivot. Same setting as the default TradingView pivot high/low script.
Show Lines Back: show historical predicted lines. (These can change)
Use this script in conjunction with Fibonacci price retracement/extension levels and/or other support/resistance levels. If it's no where near a support/resistance and there's a projected time pivot coming up, it's probably a fake out.
Notes
Re-painting is intended. When a new pivot is found, it will project out the Fib/Lucas sequences so the algorithm will run again with additional information.
The script is for informational and educational purposes only.
Do not use this indicator by itself to trade!
Projection Oscillator [CC]The Projection Oscillator was created by Mel Widner (Stocks and Commodities Jul 1995) and this is another hidden gem that is of course a great complementary indicator to my previous Projection Bands . I would recommend to use both on the same chart so you get the full array of information. This indicator tells you where the current price falls between the bands and the higher the oscillator is, the closer the price is to the upper band and vice versa. Now since the price never falls outside of the bands, the indicator is limited from 0 to 100. You will notice that with this indicator it gives even earlier signals than the Projection Bands so a very useful indicator indeed. I have included strong buy and sell signals in addition to normal ones so strong signals are darker in color and normal signals are lighter in color. Buy when the line turns green and sell when it turns red.
Let me know if there are any other indicators or scripts you would like to see me publish!
Projection Bandwidth [CC]The Projection Bandwidth was created by Mel Widner (Stocks and Commodities Jul 1995) and this is another of my series of indicators that I consider undiscovered gems. For those of you who are unaware, the Bandwidth indicator measures the distance between the high and low bands and if you remember from my Projection Bands script, the Projection Bands give pretty accurate early signals of trend reversals and followed fairly closely by a large bulge in the bands. The large bulges in the bands essentially act as the confirmation that the trend reversal is happening and so that brings me to this indicator. This indicator gives signals based on if it has reached a peak or a valley. Both extremes mean that the current trend is ending and I have color coded it based on the buy and sell signals from my Projection Bands indicator. I have included strong buy and sell signals in addition to normal ones so strong signals are darker in color and normal signals are lighter in color. Buy when the line turns green and sell when it turns red.
Let me know if there are any other scripts or indicators you would like to see me publish!
Projection Bands [CC]The Projection Bands were created by Mel Widner (Stocks and Commodities Jul 1995) and this indicator and the other two that rely on this one (I will publish them later) are very underappreciated in my humble opinion. The biggest strength of this indicator is the fact that it is a leading indicator for dramatic price movements. As you can see in my example chart it consistently gives great exit points before a downturn. I have included strong buy and sell signals in addition to normal ones so strong signals are darker in color and normal signals are lighter in color. Buy when the line turns green and sell when it turns red.
Let me know if there are any other indicators or scripts you would like to see me publish!
