Geometric Brownian Motion BandIf you are an option trader, who are constantly searching opportunities to set up inverse iron condor position or other strategies, you must be familiar in estimating the range induced by Geometric Brownian Motion (GBM), or Lognormal distribution someone may call.
The theory behind is adopted in the Black Scholes Option Pricing model, this assumes the asset price follows the GBM, shown below, and estimates the range where the price will fall into on the specific date and probability.
dS = a dt + v dW
Assuming the drift term is zero, this GBM Band applies the same model and helps you to quickly assess the suitable range to set up your option strategies with simple setting:
Length – number of bars covered
Vol Multiple - the z-score of the probability
Default values of the Length and Vol Multiple are set to 20 bars and 2.0 z-score respectively.
You can find an example how the GMB Band work.
You can also applies this GMB Band like how Bollinger's Band does for swing trade or breakaway trade.
If you find this indicator is useful to you, Star it, Follow, Donate, Like and Share.
Your support is a highly motivation for me.
Options
MMP Indicator 4-step WeeklyFading levels using martingale (limit orders, rebate venue) with no stop-loss orders, long the wings at the end of Support and Resist levels from prior week Friday right before the close. Re-hedge the order book units when there is a breakout.
Black-Scholes Model for American OptionsThis model uses Black's Approximation to price American Options. Black's Approximation is an extension of the traditional Black-Scholes model that allows the price of American Options to be approximated within the Black-Scholes Framework. This is necessary because the traditional Black-Scholes model only works on options that are exercised at expiry, not before; like American Options can be.
Black's Approximation approximates the value of an American option by:
1st. Calculating the theoretical price of a european call or put based on the strike price (K), spot price (S), annual return (sigma), time until expiry (T), times until the next 2 ex-dividend dates (t1 & t2), and the dividend paid out at times t1 and t2 (D1 and D2).
2nd. The theoretical price of an option expiring on the second ex-dividend date (t2) is calculated. This replicates exercising the option early.
3rd. Finally, the highest price of the two theoretical prices calculated in steps 1 & 2 is chosen as the approximated price.
How to use this:
1st. Input your strike price.
2nd. Input the risk-free-rate of the currency the option is based in.
3rd. Input the dividend yield for the next ex-dividend date. For example AAPL's dividend yield is 0.82 and will be paid out on August 7,2020.
4th. Input the time until the next ex-dividend date. For example AAPL's next ex-dividend date is August 7,2020, which is 61 days away. So you'd input 61 (this includes weekends and holidays).
5th. Input the dividend yield for the ex-dividend date after the next one. For example AAPL's dividend yield after the next one is 0.82 and will be paid out on November 6, 2020.
6th. Input the time until the next furthest ex-dividend date. For example AAPL's next ex-dividend date after Aug 7th, is on November 6, 2020, which is 152 days away. So you'd input 152 (this includes weekends and holidays).
7th. Input your time until expiry. You can do so in terms of days, hours, and minutes.
8th. Input your chart time-frame in term of minutes. For example, if you're using the 1 min time-frame enter 1, 4hr time-frame enter 480, daily time-frame enter 1440.
9th. Lastly, pick what type of option you want data for: Long Call or Long Put.
*Disclaimer, because Black's Approximation is mostly geared towards stocks, this will only work for stocks. Also, the time variables: time until expiry and time until the ex-dividend dates; don't automatically update. So you will have to update them each day.
Binomial Option Pricing ModelA binomial option pricing model is an option pricing model that calculates an option's price using binomial trees. The BOPM method of calculating option prices is different from the Black-Scholes Model because it provides more flexibility in the type of options you want to price. The BOPM, unlike the BS model typically used for European style options, allows you to price options which have the ability to exercise early, such as American or Bermudan options. Although you can use the BOPM for any option style.
This specific model allows you to price both American and European vanilla options.
The way the BOPM calculates option prices is by:
First, dividing up the time until expiry into equal parts called steps. This specific model presented only uses 2 steps. For example, say you have an option with an expiry of 60 days, and your binomial tree has only two steps. Then each step will contain 30 days.
Second, the model will project the expected price of the underlying at the end of each step, called a node. The expected price is calculated by using the underlying's volatility and projecting what the price of the underlying would be if it were to rise and fall. This step is repeated until the terminal node, aka the end of the tree, is reached.
Third, once the terminal node's expected underlying prices are calculated, their expected option prices must be calculated.
Finally, after calculating the terminal option prices, backwards induction must be used to calculate the option prices at the previous nodes, until you reach Node 0, aka the current option price.
In order to use this model:
1st. Enter your option's strike price.
2nd. Enter the risk-free-rate of the currency the option is based in.
3rd. Enter the dividend yield of the underlying if it's a stock, or the foreign risk-free-rate if it's an FX option.
*For example, if you were trading an AAPL stock option, in the risk-free-rate box mentioned in step 2, you would enter the US risk-free-rate because AAPL options are traded in US dollars. In the dividend yield box mentioned in step 3, you would enter the stock's dividend yield, which for AAPL is 0.82.
*If you were, for example, trading an option on the EUR/JPY currency pair, the risk-free-rate mentioned in step 2, would be the Japanese risk-free-rate. Then in the the dividend yield box from step 3, you'd input the Eurozone risk-free-rate.
*If you were trading an options on futures contract, the risk-free-rate mentioned in step 2, would be the risk-free-rate for whatever currency the futures contract is denominated in. For example EUR futures are denominated in USD, so you would input the US risk-free-rate. Meanwhile, something like FTSE futures are denominated in GBP, so you would input the British risk-free-rate. As for the dividend yield box mentioned in step 3, for all options on futures, enter 0.
4th. Pick what type of underlying the option is based on: stock, FX, or futures.
5th. Pick the style of option: American or European.
6th. Pick the type of option: Long Call or Long Put.
7th. Input your time until expiry. You can express this in terms of days, hours, and minutes.
8th. Lastly, input your chart time-frame in term of minutes. For example, if you're using the 1 min time-frame enter 1, 4hr time-frame enter 480, daily time-frame enter 1440.
*Disclaimer, because this particular model only uses 2 steps, it won't work on stocks with high prices (over $100). If you want to use this on stocks with prices greater than $100, you would need to add more steps to the code, shown below. The model in its current form should work for stocks below $100.
Options Decay Speed for 0DTEUse only for:
SPX, 5 minutes time frame
This indicator is complementing options 0DTE strategy - selling options for SPX index in the same day as they are expiring. Output of the indicator (red or green color of the curve) indicates whether is profitable to sell options at given moment at delta and VIX specified in the parameters. Changing parameter "Candles" is not recommended.
Main thought is that options expire with certain speed (theta decay) when stock doesnt move. When stock moves in unfavorable direction slowly enough, decay speed can compensate for disadvantage coming from option delta. Intuitively there must be certain speed of stock value change (expressed in stock value per 5 minutes) that is exactly compensating theta decay. This indicator calculates those two values (details below) and shows, where theta decay is faster than stock movement in the last hour and thus favorable to sell options.
Indicator gets its result from comparing two values:
1) volatility in the form of highest high and lowest low for past 12 candles (one hour in total) divided by 12 - meaning average movement of stock expressed in
2) speed of options value decay in form of combination of theta decay and option delta. Formulas are approximation of Black-Scholes model as Pine script doesnt allow for advanced functions. Approximations are accurate to 2 decimal points from market open to one hour before market close and will not indicate green when accuracy is not sufficient. Its value is also expressed in so its mutualy comparable.
My focus was not on code elegance but on practical usability.
Written by Ondřej Škop.
Black-Scholes Options Pricing ModelThis is an updated version of my "Black-Scholes Model and Greeks for European Options" indicator, that i previously published. I decided to make this updated version open-source, so people can tweak and improve it.
The Black-Scholes model is a mathematical model used for pricing options. From this model you can derive the theoretical fair value of an options contract. Additionally, you can derive various risk parameters called Greeks. This indicator includes three types of data: Theoretical Option Price (blue), the Greeks (green), and implied volatility (red); their values are presented in that order.
1) Theoretical Option Price:
This first value gives only the theoretical fair value of an option with a given strike based on the Black-Scholes framework. Remember this is a model and does not reflect actual option prices, just the theoretical price based on the Black-Scholes model and its parameters and assumptions.
2)Greeks (all of the Greeks included in this indicator are listed below):
a)Delta is the rate of change of the theoretical option price with respect to the change in the underlying's price. This can also be used to approximate the probability of your option expiring in the money. For example, if you have an option with a delta of 0.62, then it has about a 62% chance of expiring in-the-money. This number runs from 0 to 1 for Calls, and 0 to -1 for Puts.
b)Gamma is the rate of change of delta with respect to the change in the underlying's price.
c)Theta, aka "time decay", is the rate of change in the theoretical option price with respect to the change in time. Theta tells you how much an option will lose its value day by day.
d) Vega is the rate of change in the theoretical option price with respect to change in implied volatility .
e)Rho is the rate of change in the theoretical option price with respect to change in the risk-free rate. Rho is rarely used because it is the parameter that options are least effected by, it is more useful for longer term options, like LEAPs.
f)Vanna is the sensitivity of delta to changes in implied volatility . Vanna is useful for checking the effectiveness of delta-hedged and vega-hedged portfolios.
g)Charm, aka "delta decay", is the instantaneous rate of change of delta over time. Charm is useful for monitoring delta-hedged positions.
h)Vomma measures the sensitivity of vega to changes in implied volatility .
i)Veta measures the rate of change in vega with respect to time.
j)Vera measures the rate of change of rho with respect to implied volatility .
k)Speed measures the rate of change in gamma with respect to changes in the underlying's price. Speed can be used when evaluating delta-hedged and gamma hedged portfolios.
l)Zomma measures the rate of change in gamma with respect to changes in implied volatility . Zomma can be used to evaluate the effectiveness of a gamma-hedged portfolio.
m)Color, aka "gamma decay", measures the rate of change of gamma over time. This can also be used to evaluate the effectiveness of a gamma-hedged portfolio.
n)Ultima measures the rate of change in vomma with respect to implied volatility .
o)Probability of Touch, is not a Greek, but a metric that I included, which tells you the probability of price touching your strike price before expiry.
3) Implied Volatility:
This is the market's forecast of future volatility . Implied volatility is directionless, it cannot be used to forecast future direction. All it tells you is the forecast for future volatility.
How to use this indicator:
1st. Input the strike price of your option. If you input a strike that is more than 3 standard deviations away from the current price, the model will return a value of n/a.
2nd. Input the current risk-free rate.(Including this is optional, because the risk-free rate is so small, you can just leave this number at zero.)
3rd. Input the time until expiry. You can enter this in terms of days, hours, and minutes.
4th.Input the chart time frame you are using in terms of minutes. For example if you're using the 1min time frame input 1, 4 hr time frame input 480, daily time frame input 1440, etc.
5th. Pick what style of option you want data for, European Vanilla or Binary.
6th. Pick what type of option you want data for, Long Call or Long Put.
7th . Finally, pick which Greek you want displayed from the drop-down list.
*Remember the Option price presented, and the Greeks presented, are theoretical in nature, and not based upon actual option prices. Also, remember the Black-Scholes model is just a model based upon various parameters, it is not an actual representation of reality, only a theoretical one.
*Note 1. If you choose binary, only data for Long Binary Calls will be presented. All of the Greeks for Long Binary Calls are available, except for rho and vera because they are negligible.
*Note 2. Unlike vanilla european options, the delta of a binary option cannot be used to approximate the probability of the option expiring in-the-money. For binary options, if you want to approximate the probability of the binary option expiring in-the-money, use the price. The price of a binary option can be used to approximate its probability of expiring in-the-money. So if a binary option has a price of $40, then it has approximately a 40% chance of expiring in-the-money.
*Note 3. As time goes on you will have to update the expiry, this model does not do that automatically. So for example, if you originally have an option with 30 days to expiry, tomorrow you would have to manually update that to 29 days, then the next day manually update the expiry to 28, and so on and so forth.
There are various formulas that you can use to calculate the Greeks. I specifically chose the formulations included in this indicator because the Greeks that it presents are the closest to actual options data. I compared the Greeks given by this indicator to brokerage option data on a variety of asset classes from equity index future options to FX options and more. Because the indicator does not use actual option prices, its Greeks do not match the brokerage data exactly, but are close enough.
I may try to make future updates that include data for Long Binary Puts, American Options, Asian Options, etc.
MobilityThe indicator measure realized mobility of the underlying in the terms of V.Kurbakovsky. It is not an exact realization without access to bid and ask prices, but you can choose source prices in the settings window. The indicator can be used to estimate the degree of variation of the underlying price in volatility trading. It is advised to use it on a 1M (1 minute) timeframe. In the calculations the mobility will be normalized to a day. In Minutes in period setting you can specify the number of the estimating periods during MOEX trading session, which is 810 minutes. Thus, mobility is measured in points per day.
Bitcoin Implied VolatilityThis simple script collects data from FTX:BVOLUSD to plot BTC’s implied volatility as a standalone indicator instead of a chart.
Implied volatility is used to gauge future volatility and often used in options trading.
BO - CCI Arrow with AlertBO - CCI Arrow with Alert base on CCI indicator to get signal for trade Binary Option.
Rules of BO - CCI Arrow with Alert below:
A. Setup Menu
1. cciLength:
* Default CCI lenght = 14
2. Linear Regression Length:
* Periods to calculate Linear Regression of CCI,
* Default value = 5
3. Extreme Level:
* Default top extreme level = 100
* Default bottom extreme level = -100
4. Filter Length:
* Periods to define highest or lowest Linear Regression
* Default value = 6
B. Rule Of Alert Bar
1. Put Alert Bar
* Current Linear Regression Line created temporrary peak
* Peak of Linear Regression Line greater than Top Extreme Level (100)
* Previous Linear Regression is highest of Filter Length (6)
* Previous Linear Regression is greater than previous peak of Linear Regression Line
* Current price greater than previous low
* CCI(14) less than Linear Regression Line
2. Call Alert Bar
* Current Linear Regression Line created temporrary bottom
* Bottom of Linear Regression Line less than Bottom Extreme Level (-100)
* Previous Linear Regression is lowest of Filter Length (6)
* Previous Linear Regression is less than previous bottom of Linear Regression Line
* Current price less than previous lhigh
* CCI(14) greater than Linear Regression Line
B. Rule Of Entry Bar and Epiry.
1. Put Entry with expiry 3 bars:
* After Put Alert Bar close with signal confirmed, put Arrow appear, and after 3 bars, result label will appear to show win trade, loss trade or draw trade
2. Call Entry with expiry 3 bars:
* After Call Alert Bar close with signal confirmed, call Arrow appear, and after 3 bars, result label will appear to show win trade, loss trade or draw trade.
3. While 1 trade is opening no more any signal
C. Popup Alert/Mobile Alert
1. Signal alert: Put Alert or Call Alert will send to mobile or show popup on chart
2. Put Alert: only Put Alert will send to mobile or show popup on chart
3. Call Alert: only Call Alert will send to mobile or show popup on chart
BO - Bar's direction Signal - BacktestingBO - Bar's direction Signal - Backtesting Options:
A. Factors Calculate probability of x bars same direction
1. Periods Counting: Data to count From day/month/year To day/month/year
2. Trading Time: only cases occurred in trading time were counted.
B. Timezone
1. Trading time depend on Time zone and specified chart.
2. Enable Highlight Trading Time to check your period time is correct
C. Date Backtesting
* Only cases occurred in Date Backtesting were reported.
D. Setup Options & Rule
1. Reversal after 2 bars same direction
* Probability of 3 bars same direction < 50
* 2 bars same direction is start of series
2. Reversal after 3 bars same direction
* Probability of 4 bars same direction < 50
* 3 bars same direction is start of series
3. Reversal after 4 bars same direction
* Probability of 4 bars same direction < 50
* 3 bars same direction is start of series
4. Reversal after 5 bars same direction
* Probability of 5 bars same direction < 50
* 4 bars same direction is start of series
5. Reversal after 6 bars same direction
* Probability of 6 bars same direction < 50
* 5 bars same direction is start of series
BO - Bar M15 2/3 SignalBO - Bar M15 2/3 Signal show the signal to trade Binary Option with rule below:
A. Indicator
* Bollinger Band (20,2): avoid waterfall
B. Rule of Signal
1. Rule1: Split Bar M15 to 3 part and load them on M5 chart (recommend use M5 IDC chart)
2. Rule 2: Delay 10' after bar M15 open => wait for price's pattern
3. Rule 3: Put Signal row 30-32
* Delay 10' after bar M15 open.
* Direction of 1/3 and 2/3 Bar M15 is upward
* close of 2/3 Bar M15 below upper band Bb(20,2) on M5 chart => avoid strong buy
4. Rule 4: Call Signal row 36-38
* Delay 10' after bar M15 open.
* Direction of 1/3 and 2/3 Bar M15 is downward
* close of 2/3 Bar M15 above lower band Bb(20,2) on M5 chart => avoid strong sell
C. Recommend Expiry time: Bar M15 close
* We try to catch the shadow of Bar M15 but dont trade when price run on the upper or lower band of BB(20,2,M5)
BO - Bar M15 Signal* This script show the signal base on volatility of previous bar M15 to trade Binary Option.
* Rule of Signal is below:
A. Rule 1: Wait for prices created temporary peak and bottom
Row 18: 10 minutes till close
B. Rule 2: Reversal previous bar's direction
1. Put Signal - Row 22 - 25:
- Delay 5' after bar M15 open
- previous bar's direction is upward
- price less than previous close
- temporary bottom greater than previous open
2. Call Signal - Row 29 - 32:
- Delay 5' after bar M15 open
- previous bar's direction is downward
- price greater than previous close
- temporary peak less than previous open
C. Rule 3: Follow previous bar's direction
1. Put Signal - Row 37 - 40:
- Delay 5' after bar M15 open
- previous bar's direction is downward
- price greater than previous open
- temporary peak less than previous peak
2. Call Signal - Row 43 - 46:
- Delay 5' after bar M15 open
- previous bar's direction is upward
- price less than previous open
- temporary bottom greater than previous bottom
BO - KBSignalBO - KBSignal show Put or Call Signal inoder to trade Binary Option.
A. Indicators
1. Keltner Channel %K (indicator was published in my scripts)
2. OBV's %B (indicator was published in my scripts)
B. Rule of Signal
1. Rule 1: No Signal
- %K is the highest of 3 periods => Possible a Pivot High
- %K is the lowest of 3 periods => Possible a Pivot Low
- Previous %K is greater than or equal 0.8 => Touch Resistance Zone
- Previous %K is less than or equal 0.2 => Touch Support zone
2. Rule 2: Sell and Buy Zone depend on 2 Indicators mentioned in A
- Sell zone = %K<0.45 and Obv's %B <0.45
- Buy zone = %K>0.55 and Obv's %B >0.55
3. Rule 3: Put and Call Signal
- Put Signal = Sell zone and not No Signal
- Call Signal = Buy zone and not No Signal
C. Alert
1. Signal alert = Put Signal or Call Signal alert
2. Put alert = Put Signal alert
3. call alert = Call Signal alert
Rate Of Change Earnings Move - ROCEMRate Of Change Earnings Move
What is it and how does it work?
The Rate of Change Earnings Move indicator or ROCEM is an indicator designed for giving the user an idea of how much a stock has moved up or down in past earnings reports. This is ideal for options traders who can use ROCEM to calculate whether or not their long straddles are actually probable of happening.
How it works
The indicator measures the absolute value rate of change and then calculates the average rate of change for the day of the earnings report for the past 8 earnings reports (2 years). It then takes the current stock price and finds the upper and lower price based on the average rate of change for past earnings.
I have also included a moving average (purple line), use this to see if the current rate of change is higher than usual.
Additionally, earnings reports are marked with a red x on the indicator.
How to trade ROCEM
This is primarily made for options trading so I will be explaining how it can be used for that. It is not suited for traditional stock trading as it does not determine a market direction.
Select a stock with an upcoming earnings
Enter your per leg commissions in the indicator if you want it to calculate new upper and lower prices (makes it easier to determine if the options trade will pass the breakeven when commissions are factored in)
Compare your long straddle breakevens with the upper and lower prices of the indicator. If the upper breakeven is smaller than the upper price in ROCEM and the lower breakeven is larger than the lower price in ROCEM, then a long straddle position could be considered a reasonable trade based on past earnings performance.
Trendy Bar Trend ColorTrendy Bar Trend Color
Inspired by trend candlestick charts on other trading platforms. Changes bar colors to stay in trend much like Heikin Ashi candles without the ATR price distortion. This is done by comparing the HL2 and/or Open-Close values of current candlestick to the prior candlestick.
Trading Range Indicator - TRISimple script made to identify trading ranges in any timeframe
The oscillator bounces between 1 and 0. 1 means that the current asset is in a trading range and 0 meaning it is not.
The determination of a trading range is determined by the following:
ATR(14)40 and RSI<60
ADX<25
Due to all 3 having to be fulfilled in order for the oscillator to show there is a trading range, this causes a problem where 2 of the conditions are fulfilled and therefore still shows 0 on the oscillator, however, the asset could very well be in a trading range.
So what in the world do you use this for if there is such a significant margin of error?
Since all 3 conditions need to be fulfilled in order for it to be considered a trading range, this gives a very strong indicator of said trading ranges. So if a person is looking at individual stock tickers or the SPY index ticker, then when the oscillator reads a 1, it could be ideal to open an Iron Condor on said ticker. This means that this indicator is not well suiting for traditional long and short stock positions, but rather it is made for options traders who by using an Iron Condor can make money of a range-bound market.
Monthly Options Expiration 2020Monthly options expiration for the year 2020.
Also you can set a flag X no. of days before the expiration date. I use it at as marker to take off existing positions in expiration week or roll to next expiration date or to place new trades.
Happy new year 2020 and all the best traders.
Ichimoku Double Cloud + AutoFibCombined indicator using an ichimoku double cloud derivative.
Ideal use is option swings, using traditional ichimoku rules, targets are adjusted to the current ATR.
Appropriate strikes closest to one of these lines for assisted price targeting.
U.S. Stocks CVD to Bitcoin Price Correlation [NeoButane]An experimental script to see if there are any actionable signals when comparing bitcoin/ethereum/index prices to the U.S. stock and options market.
So far I haven't found a reliable signal, but the tickers are in the script if you'd like to see if there is anything useful.
IV/HV ratio 1.0 [dime]This script compares the implied volatility to the historic volatility as a ratio.
The plot indicates how high the current implied volatility for the next 30 days is relative to the actual volatility realized over the set period. This is most useful for options traders as it may show when the premiums paid on options are over valued relative to the historic risk.
The default is set to one year (252 bars) however any number of bars can be set for the lookback period for HV.
The default is set to VIX for the IV on SPX or SPY but other CBOE implied volatility indexes may be used. For /CL you have OVX/HV and for /GC you have GVX/HV.
Note that the CBOE data for these indexes may be delayed and updated EOD
and may not be suitable for intraday information. (Future versions of this script may be developed to provide a realtime intraday study. )
There is a list of many volatility indexes from CBOE listed at:
www.cboe.com
(Some may not yet be available on Tradingview)
RVX Russell 2000
VXN NASDAQ
VXO S&P 100
VXD DJIA
GVX Gold
OVX OIL
VIX3M 3-Month
VIX6M S&P 500 6-Month
VIX1Y 1-Year
VXEFA Cboe EFA ETF
VXEEM Cboe Emerging Markets ETF
VXFXI Cboe China ETF
VXEWZ Cboe Brazil ETF
VXSLV Cboe Silver ETF
VXGDX Cboe Gold Miners ETF
VXXLE Cboe Energy Sector ETF
EUVIX FX Euro
JYVIX FX Yen
BPVIX FX British Pound
EVZ Cboe EuroCurrency ETF Volatility Index
Amazon VXAZN
Apple VXAPL
Goldman Sachs VXGS
Google VXGOG
IBM VXIBM
