TrendPredator ESThe TrendPredator Essential (ES)
Stacey Burke, a seasoned trader and mentor, developed his trading system over the years, drawing insights from influential figures such as George Douglas Taylor, Tony Crabel, Steve Mauro, and Robert Schabacker. His popular system integrates select concepts from these experts into a consistent framework. While powerful, it is highly discretionary, requiring significant real-time analysis, which can be challenging for novice traders.
The TrendPredator ES indicator supports this approach by automating the essential analysis required to trade the system effectively and incorporating a mechanical bias and multi-timeframe concept.
It provides value to traders by significantly reducing the time needed for session preparation and offering relevant chart analysis and signals for live trading through real-time updates and a unique consolidated table format.
The Stacey Burke Master Pattern
Inspired by Taylor’s 3-day cycle and Steve Mauro’s work with “Beat the Market Maker,” Burke’s system views markets as cyclical, driven by the manipulative patterns of market makers. These patterns often trap traders at the extremes of moves above or below significant levels with peak formations, then reverse to utilize their liquidity, initiating the next phase. Breakouts away from these traps often lead to range expansions, as described by Tony Crabel and Robert Schabacker. After multiple consecutive breakouts, especially after the psychological number three, overextension might develop. A break in structure may then lead to reversals or pullbacks. Burke’s system is designed to track these cycles on the daily timeframe and provides signals and trade setups to navigate along them.
Bias Logic and Multi-Timeframe Concept
The indicator covers the basic signals of his system:
- First Red Day (FRD): Bearish break in structure, signalling weak longs in the market.
- First Green Day (FGD): Bullish break in structure signalling weak shorts in the markt.
- Three Days of Longs (3DL): Overextension signalling potential weak longs in the market.
- Three Days of Shorts (3DS): Overextension signalling potential weak shorts in the market.
- Inside Day (ID): Contraction, signalling potential impulsive reversal or range expansion move.
It enhances the original system by introducing:
Structured Bias Logic:
Tracks bias by following how price trades concerning the last previous candle high or low that was hit. For example if the high was hit, we are bullish above and bearish below.
- Bullish state: Breakout (BO), Fakeout Low (FOL)
- Bearish state: Breakdown (BD), Fakeout High (FOH)
Multi-Timeframe Perspective:
- Tracks all signals across H4, H8, D, W, and M timeframes, to look for alignment and follow trends and momentum in a mechanical way.
The indicator monitors the bias and signals of the system across all relevant timeframes and automates the related graphical chart analysis to generate the information needed for the trader to identify key setups. Additional to the SB pattern, the system helps to identify the higher timeframe situation and follow the moves driven by other timeframe traders.
Example: Full Bullish Cycle on the Daily Timeframe with Signals
- The Trap/Peak Formation
The market breaks down from a previous day’s and maybe week’s low—potentially after multiple breakdowns—but fails to move lower and pulls back up to form a peak formation low and closes as a first green day.
Signal: Bullish daily and weekly fakeout low; three consecutive breakdown days (1W Curr FOL, 1D Curr FOL, BO 3S).
- Pullback and Consolidation
The next day pulls further up after first green day signal, potentially consolidates inside the previous day’s range.
Signal: Fakeout low and first green day closing as an inside day (1D Curr IS, Prev FOL, First G).
- Range Expansion/Trend
The following day breaks up through the previous day’s high, launching a range expansion away from the trap.
Signal: Bullish daily breakout of an inside day (1D Curr BO, Prev IS).
- Overextension
After multiple consecutive breakouts, the market reaches a state of overextension, signalling a possible reversal or pullback.
Signal: Three days of breakout longs (1D Curr BO, Prev BO, BO 3L).
Note: This is only one possible scenario; there are many variations and combinations.
Example Chart: Full Bullish Cycle with Correlated Signals
Note: The signals shown along the move are manually added illustrations. The indicator shows these in realtime in the table at the bottom right. This is only one possible scenario; there are many variations and combinations.
Due to the fractal nature of markets, this cycle can be observed across timeframes. The strongest setups show multi-timeframe alignment. For example, a peak formation and potential reversal on the daily timeframe has high probability and follow-through if it also aligns with bearish signals on higher timeframes (e.g., weekly/monthly BD/FOH) and confirmation on lower timeframes (H4/H8 FOH/BD). With this perspective the system enables the trader to follow the trend and momentum and identify rollover points in a very differentiated way.
Detailed Features and Options
1. Historic Highs and Lows
Displays historic highs and lows per timeframe for added context, enabling users to track sequences over time.
Timeframes: H4, H8, D, W, M
Options: Customize for timeframes shown, number of historic candles per timeframe, colors, formats, and labels.
2. Previous High and Low Extensions
Displays extended previous levels (high, low, and close) for each timeframe to assess how price trades relative to these levels.
H4: P4H, P4L, P4C
H8: P8H, P8L, P8C
Daily: PDH, PDL, PDC
Weekly: PWH, PWL, PWC
Monthly: PMH, PML, PMC
Options: Fully customizable for timeframes shown, colors, formats, and labels.
3. Breach Lines
Tracks live market reactions (e.g., breakouts or fakeouts) per timeframe for the last previous high or low that was hit, highlighting these levels originating at the breached candle to indicate bias (color-coded).
Red: Bearish below
Green: Bullish above
H4: 4FOL, 4FOH, 4BO, 4BD
H8: 8FOL, 8FOH, 8BO, 8BD
D: dFOL, dFOH, dBO, dBD
W: wFOL, wFOH, wBO, wBD
M: mFOL, mFOH, mBO, mBD
Options: Fully customizable for timeframes shown, colors, formats, and labels.
4. Multi-Timeframe Table
Provides a real-time view of system signals, including:
Current Timeframe (Curr): Bias states.
- Breakout (green BO): Bullish after breaking above the previous high.
- Fakeout High (red FOH): Bearish after breaking above the previous high but pulling back down.
- Breakdown (red BD): Bearish after breaking below the previous low.
- Fakeout Low (green FOL): Bullish after breaking below the previous low but pulling back up.
- Inside (IS): Price trading neutral inside the previous range, taking the previous bias (color indicates the previous bias).
Previous Timeframe (Prev): Tracks last candle bias state and transitions dynamically.
- Bias for last candle: BO, FOH, BD, FOL in respective colors.
- Inside bar (yellow IS): Indicated as standalone signal.
Note: Also previous timeframes get constantly updated in real time to track the bias state in relation to the level that was hit. This means a BO can still lose the level and become a FOH, and vice versa, and a BD can still become a FOL, and vice versa. This is critical to see for example if traders that are trapped in that timeframe with a FOH or FOL are released. An inside bar stays fixed, though, since no level was hit in that timeframe.
Breakouts (BO): Breakout count 3 longs and 3 shorts.
- 3 Longs (red 3L): Bearish after three breakouts without hitting a previous low.
- 3 Shorts (green 3S): Bullish after three breakdowns without hitting a previous high.
First Countertrend Close (First): Tracks First Red or Green Day.
- First Green (G): After two consecutive red closes.
- First Red (R): After two consecutive green closes.
Options: Customizable font size and label colors.
Overall Options:
Toggle single feature groups on/off.
Customize H8 open/close time as an offset to UTC to be provider independent.
Colour settings for dark or bright backgrounds.
Using the Indicator for Trading
The automated analysis provided by the indicator can be used for thesis generation in preparation for a session as well as for live trading, leveraging the real-time updates. It is recommended to customize the settings accordingly, such as hiding the lower timeframes for thesis generation to keep the charts clean.
1. Setup Identification:
Follow the bias of daily and H8 timeframes. A setup always requires alignment of these.
Setup Types:
- Trend Trade: Trade in alignment with the previous day’s trend.
Example: Price above the previous day’s high → Focus on long setups (dBO, H8 FOL) until overextension or reversal signs appear (H8 BO 3L, First R).
- Reversal Trade: Identify reversal setups when lower timeframes show rollovers after higher timeframe weakness.
Example: Price below the previous day’s high after FOH → Look for reversal signals at the current high of day (H8 FOH, BO 3L, First R).
2. Context Assessment:
Evaluate alignment of higher timeframes (e.g., Month/Week, Week/Day). More alignment → Stronger setups. Conflicting situations → Setups invalidated.
3. Entry Confirmation:
Confirm entries based on H8 and H4 alignment and candle closes (e.g., M15 or M5 close after entering setup zone as confirmation).
Example Chart for Reversal Trade:
1. Setup Identification: FOH continuation after BO 3L overextension, confirmed by H8 FOH, First R.
2. Context Assessment: Month in FOL with bearish First R; Week in BO but bearishly overextended with BO 3L.
3. Entry Confirmation: H4 BD, M5 close.
Further recommendations:
- Higher timeframe context: TPO or volume profile indicators can be used to gain an even better overview.
- Entry confirmation: Momentum indicators like VWAP, Supertrend, or EMA are helpful for increasing precision. Additionally, tracking lower timeframe fakeouts can provide powerful confluence.
- Late session trading: Entries later in the session, such as during the 3rd hour of the NY session, offer better analysis and follow-through on setups.
Limitations:
Data availability using TradingView has its limitations. The indicator leverages only the real-time data available for the specific timeframe being used. This means it cannot access data from timeframes lower than the one displayed on the chart. For example, if you are on a daily chart, it cannot use H8 data. Additionally, on very low timeframes, the historical availability of data might be limited, making higher timeframe signals unreliable.
To address this, the indicator automatically hides the affected columns in these specific situations, preventing false signals.
Disclaimer
This indicator is for educational purposes only and does not guarantee profits.
None of the information provided shall be considered financial advice.
The indicator does not provide final buy or sell signals but highlights zones for potential setups.
Users are fully responsible for their trading decisions and outcomes.
Mechanicaltradingsystem
Screener | FractalystWhat’s the purpose of this indicator?
This indicator is part of the Optirange suite , which analyzes all timeframes using a mechanical top-down approach to determine the overall market bias. It helps you identify the specific timeframes and exact levels for positioning in longs, shorts, or guiding you on whether to stay away from trading a particular market condition.
The purpose of the Screener indicator is to track the contextual bias of multiple markets simultaneously on the charts without the need to switch between pairs. This allows traders to monitor various assets in real-time, enhancing decision-making efficiency and identifying potential trading opportunities more effectively.
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How does this indicator identify the overall market bias?
This indicator employs a systematic top-down approach, analyzing market structure, fractal blocks, and their mitigations from the 12M timeframe down to the 1D timeframe to uncover the story behind the market. This method helps identify the overall market bias, whether it’s bullish, bearish, or in consolidating conditions.
Below is a flowchart that illustrates the calculation behind the market context identification, demonstrating the systematic approach:
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According to the above trade plan, why do we only look for mitigations within Fractal Blocks of X1/X2?
In this context, "X" stands for a break in the market's structure, and the numbers (1 and 2) indicate the sequence of these breaks within the same trend direction, either up or down.
We focus on mitigations within Fractal Blocks during the X1/X2 stages because these points mark the early phase (X1) and the continuation (X2) of a trend. By doing so, we align our trades with the market's main direction and avoid getting stopped out in the middle of trends.
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How does this indicator identify ranges in a mechanical way?
Since the indicator is part of the Optirange suite , it follows the exact rules that Optirange utilizes to identify breaks of market structures in a mechanical manner.
Let’s take a closer look at how the ranges are calculated:
1- First, we need to understand the importance of following a set of mechanical rules in identifying market structure:
The image above illustrates the difference between a subjective and a mechanical approach to analyzing market structure. The subjective method often leads to uncertainty, where traders might struggle to pinpoint exact breaks in structure, resulting in inconsistent decision-making. Questions like “Is this a break?” or “Maybe this one...?” reflect the ambiguity of manual interpretation, which can cause confusion and errors in trading.
On the other hand, the mechanical approach depicted on the right side of the image follows a clear, rule-based method to define breaks in market structure. This systematic approach eliminates guesswork by providing precise criteria for identifying structural changes, such as marking structural invalidation levels where market bias shifts from bullish to bearish or vice versa. The mechanical method not only offers consistency but also integrates statistical probabilities , enhancing the trader's ability to make data-driven decisions.
By adhering to these mechanical rules, the Screener indicator ensures that ranges are identified consistently, allowing traders to rely on objective analysis rather than subjective interpretation . This approach is crucial for accurately defining market structures and making informed trading decisions.
2- Now let's take a look at a practical example of how the indicator utilizes Pivot points with a period of 2 to identify ranges:
In this image, we see a Bearish Scenario on the left and a Bullish Scenario on the right. The indicator starts by identifying the first significant swing on the chart. It then validates this swing by checking if there is a preceding swing high (for a bearish scenario) or swing low (for a bullish scenario). Once validated, the indicator confirms a break of structure when price closes below or above these points, respectively.
For instance, in the Bearish Scenario:
The first significant swing is identified.
The script checks for a preceding swing high before confirming any structural break.
A candle closure below the swing low confirms the first bearish break of structure.
This results in a confirmed market bias towards bearishness, with structural liquidity levels indicated for potential price targets.
In the Bullish Scenario:
The process is mirrored, identifying the first swing low and validating it with a preceding swing low.
A closure above this swing confirms the bullish break of structure.
This leads to a market bias towards bullishness, with invalidation levels to watch if the trend shifts.
This practical example demonstrates how the indicator systematically identifies market ranges, ensuring that traders can make informed decisions based on clear, rule-based criteria.
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How does this indicator identify ranges in a mechanical way, What are the underlying calculations?
Fractal blocks refer to the most extreme swing candle within the latest break. They can serve as significant levels for price rejection and may guide movements toward the next break, often in confluence with topdown analysis for added confirmation.
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What are mitigations, What are the underlying calculations?
Mitigations refer to specific price action occurrences identified by the script:
1- When the price reaches the most recent fractal block and confirms a swing candle, the script automatically draws a line from the swing to the fractal block bar and labels it with a checkmark.
2- If the price wicks through the invalidation level and then retraces back to the fractal block while forming a swing candle, the script labels this as a double mitigation on the chart.
This level will serve as the next potential invalidation level if a break occurs in the same direction.
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What does the right table display?
The table located at the right of your chart displays five colored symbols that represent the contextual market bias:
Green: The market is in a bullish condition.
Red: The market is in a bearish condition.
White: The market condition is uncertain, and it is advisable to stay away from trading.
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What does the bottom table display?
The bottom table can be turned on in the Optirange indicator and serves multiple purposes:
Range Counts and Mitigations: It shows the range counts and their mitigations across multiple timeframes, providing a comprehensive view of market dynamics.
Hourly Timeframe Probabilities: The bottom row of the bias table displays the probabilities for various hourly timeframes, helping to identify potential entry levels based on the multi-timeframe bias determined by the Screener.
In a bullish market context, you should look for long positions by focusing on hourly timeframes where buy-side probability exceeds 50%.
In a bearish market context, you should look for short positions by focusing on hourly timeframes where the sell-side probability exceeds 50%.
When the symbol is white within the Screener table, it signals that the market bias is unclear, and it's recommended to stay away from trading in such conditions.
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How the range probabilities are calculated?
Each break of market structure, denoted as X, is assigned a unique ID, starting from X1 for the first break, X2 for the second, and so on.
The probabilities are calculated based on breaks holding, meaning price closing through the liquidity level, rather than invalidation. This probability is then divided by the total count of similar numeric breaks.
For example, if 75 out of 100 bullish X1s become X2, then the probability of X1 becoming X2 on your charts will be displayed as 75% in the following format: ⬆ 75%
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What does the top table display?
The top table on the charts displays the current market context, offering insights into the underlying bias. It highlights the high-timeframe (HTF) bias and guides you on which timeframes you should use to enter long or short positions, based on the probability of success.
Additionally, when the market bias is unclear, the table clearly signals that it's best to avoid trading that specific market until the context or market story becomes clearer. This helps traders make informed decisions and avoid uncertain market conditions.
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How does the Screener indicator identify the market bias/context/story ?
- Market Structure: The Optirange indicator analyzes market structure across multiple timeframes, from a top-down perspective, including 12M, 6M, 3M, 1M, 2W, 1W, 3D, and 1D.
- Fractal Blocks: Once the market structure or current range is identified, the indicator automatically identifies the last push before the break and draws it as a box. These zones acts as a key area where the price often rejects from.
- Mitigations: After identifying the Fractal Block, the indicator checks for price mitigation or rejection within this zone. If mitigation occurs, meaning the price has reacted or rejected from the Fractal Block, the indicator draws a checkmark from the deepest candle within the Fractal Block to the initial candle that has created the zone.
- Bias Table: After identifying the three key elements—market structure, Fractal Blocks, and price mitigations—the indicator compiles this information into a multi-timeframe table. This table provides a comprehensive top-down perspective, showing what is happening from a structural standpoint across all timeframes. The Bias Table presents raw data, including identified Fractal Blocks and mitigations, to help traders understand the overall market trend. This data is crucial for the screener, which uses it to determine the current market bias based on a top-down analysis.
- Screener: Once all higher timeframes (HTF) and lower timeframes (LTF) are calculated using the indicator, it follows the exact rules outlined in the flowchart to determine the market bias. This systematic approach not only helps identify the current market trend but also suggests the exact timeframes to use for finding entry, particularly on hourly timeframes.
Example:
12M Timeframe:
OANDA:EURUSD
6M Timeframe :
OANDA:EURUSD
3M Timeframe :
OANDA:EURUSD
1M Timeframe :
OANDA:EURUSD
2W Timeframe :
OANDA:EURUSD
1W Timeframe :
OANDA:EURUSD
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User-input settings and customizations
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SMA mechanical swing tradeIndicator that compares the closing price of an asset vs a simple moving average as a mechanical swing trading strategy. It allows the user to set any asset and timeframe for the strategy, which can be different from those the user is currently viewing. The strategy also allows the user to set an upside and downside tolerance so that retests within a few % of the SMA get some space to breathe before flipping directional bias.
If the selected asset in the strategy is different from the one currently viewed, the indicator plots the MA for the currently viewed asset but keeps applying the directional bias colors from the strategy asset.
Some examples of recommended usage of this indicator: BTCUSD 120D, BTCUSD 120D applied on ETHUSD, AAVEUSD 365D.
Mechanical Trading StrategyThe "Mechanical Trading Strategy" is a simple and systematic approach to trading that aims to capture short-term price movements in the financial markets. This strategy focuses on executing trades based on specific conditions and predetermined profit targets and stop loss levels.
Key Features:
Profit Target: The strategy allows you to set a profit target as a percentage of the entry price. This target represents the desired level of profit for each trade.
Stop Loss: The strategy incorporates a stop loss level as a percentage of the entry price. This level represents the maximum acceptable loss for each trade, helping to manage risk.
Entry Condition: The strategy triggers trades at a specific time. In this case, the condition for entering a trade is based on the hour of the candle being 16 (4:00 PM). This time-based entry condition provides a systematic approach to executing trades.
Position Sizing: The strategy determines the position size based on a fixed percentage of the available equity. This approach ensures consistent risk management and allows for potential portfolio diversification.
Execution:
When the entry condition is met, signified by the hour being 16, the strategy initiates a long position using the strategy.entry function. It sets the exit conditions using the strategy.exit function, with a limit order for the take profit level and a stop order for the stop loss level.
Take Profit and Stop Loss:
The take profit level is calculated by adding a percentage of the entry price to the entry price itself. This represents the profit target for the trade. Conversely, the stop loss level is calculated by subtracting a percentage of the entry price from the entry price. This level represents the maximum acceptable loss for the trade.
By using this mechanical trading strategy, traders can establish a disciplined and systematic approach to their trading decisions. The predefined profit target and stop loss levels provide clear exit rules, helping to manage risk and potentially maximize returns. However, it is important to note that no trading strategy is guaranteed to be profitable, and careful analysis and monitoring of market conditions are always recommended.
TrendShikari NTS - StrategyTrendShikari NTS is a Nifty Index, Swing trading system with great profitability. This is the STRATEGY file for you to see backtest performance along with the feature to see the next day trading levels in advance. For getting Email / SMA alerts (based on your TV subscription plan) and to see better graphic level marking use the STUDY file from the indicator library. Access to this system will be limited. See my profile status field to see how you can gain access.
Salient Features
1. Daily Bar System. System analyzes a Daily chart of NIFTY to give signals with average holding period of 5 days.
2. Automatic Long and Short signal generation. No need to draw waves / lines and other fancy stuff on your charts to analyze NIFTY any more.
3. Backtester Results Available - Thanks to TradingView, backtest results for previous years (from 1990) are available right in the charting platform for NIFTY.
Having a good trading system is one thing and trading it to make money is a whole different ball game. One thing you must always do if you want to mimic the backtest results in live trading is to follow the rules mentioned below as if your life depends on it.
Trading Rules
1. Each day the system gives you a Long and Short trading level. You go Long on NIFTY when the Daily Long level is breached and you go Short on NIFTY when the Daily Short Level is breached.
2. Trade using Nifty Options, In the Money calls, one strike below the nearest strike price for going Long using Call Option or one strike above the nearest strike price for going Short using Put Option.
3. Preset exit and entry orders of appropriate option contracts every day at market open. To set the levels see the difference in Nifty spot price and the trading levels given by system and then multiply it with 0.8 to give an approximate order trigger price in both directions for the corresponding option contracts.
4. Book profit when Nifty moves significantly along signal direction. Every time NIFTY moves 100 points in your direction you exit the current option contract and enter a trade in the next strike price in the same direction.
5. Rollover before expiry. Its important that you rollover (ideally one day before the expiry day) your Option contact positions by exiting the current month contract and take a new position in the next month contract of the same type and strike price of the current month contract.
6. Trade only Nifty using this system. Also Daily chart has to be used for trading. System parameters have been tested and optimized for Nifty Index Daily patterns only and hence is likely to give stated results with Nifty Daily chart only.
7. Trade all signals. Don't pick and choose or add your own or someone else's analysis to filter the signals. Take confidence from the objective backtest results and not any subjective interpretations.
8. Trade with only that amount of money you can afford to loose. Initial capital that you need to have to trade one lot of NIFTY Option using this system should be at least INR 150000. You need only INR 7500 - 15000 to open a position and the rest is the margin of safety you need to have in your trading account to account for drawdowns in trading. You can add the capital in a staggered need to basis to your trading account. But make sure you have the initial capital mentioned above at your disposal, if need be.
As always your thoughts and inputs are welcome. Happy Trading !!!
TrendShikari NTS - StudyTrendShikari NTS is a Nifty Index, Swing trading system with great profitability. This is the STUDY file for you to generate E-mail / SMS signal alerts (based on your TV plan) and to see crisp and clear graphical Daily trade level plotting. For seeing backtest results and next day trading levels in advance use the STRATEGY file from indicator library. Access to this system will be limited. See my profile status field to see how you can gain access.
Salient Features
1. Daily Bar System. System analyzes a Daily chart of NIFTY to give signals with average holding period of 5 days.
2. Automatic Long and Short signal generation. No need to draw waves / lines and other fancy stuff on your charts to analyze NIFTY any more.
3. Backtester Results Available - Thanks to TradingView, backtest results for previous years (from 1990) are available right in the charting platform for NIFTY.
Having a good trading system is one thing and trading it to make money is a whole different ball game. One thing you must always do if you want to mimic the backtest results in live trading is to follow the rules mentioned below as if your life depends on it.
Trading Rules
1. Each day the system gives you a Long and Short trading level. You go Long on NIFTY when the Daily Long level is breached and you go Short on NIFTY when the Daily Short Level is breached.
2. Trade using Nifty Options, In the Money calls, one strike below the nearest strike price for going Long using Call Option or one strike above the nearest strike price for going Short using Put Option.
3. Preset exit and entry orders of appropriate option contracts every day at market open. To set the levels see the difference in Nifty spot price and the trading levels given by system and then multiply it with 0.8 to give an approximate order trigger price in both directions for the corresponding option contracts.
4. Book profit when Nifty moves significantly along signal direction. Every time NIFTY moves 100 points in your direction you exit the current option contract and enter a trade in the next strike price in the same direction.
5. Rollover before expiry. Its important that you rollover (ideally one day before the expiry day) your Option contact positions by exiting the current month contract and take a new position in the next month contract of the same type and strike price of the current month contract.
6. Trade only Nifty using this system. Also Daily chart has to be used for trading. System parameters have been tested and optimized for Nifty Index Daily patterns only and hence is likely to give stated results with Nifty Daily chart only.
7. Trade all signals. Don't pick and choose or add your own or someone else's analysis to filter the signals. Take confidence from the objective backtest results and not any subjective interpretations.
8. Trade with only that amount of money you can afford to loose. Initial capital that you need to have to trade one lot of NIFTY Option using this system should be at least INR 150000. You need only INR 7500 - 15000 to open a position and the rest is the margin of safety you need to have in your trading account to account for drawdowns in trading. You can add the capital in a staggered need to basis to your trading account. But make sure you have the initial capital mentioned above at your disposal, if need be.
As always your thoughts and inputs are welcome. Happy Trading !!!