Bitcoin: Mayer MultipleMayer Multiple Indicator
The Mayer Multiple is a powerful tool designed to help traders assess market conditions and identify optimal buying or selling opportunities. It calculates the ratio between the current price and its 200-day simple moving average (SMA), visualizing key thresholds that indicate value zones, caution areas, and overheated markets.
Key Features:
Dynamic Market Zones: Clearly marked levels like "Smash Buy," "Boost DCA," and "Extreme Euphoria" to guide your trading decisions.
Customizable Input: Adjust the SMA length to fit your strategy.
Color-Coded Signals: Intuitive visualization of market sentiment for quick analysis.
Comprehensive Thresholds: Historical insights into price behavior with plotted reference levels based on probabilities.
This indicator is ideal for traders aiming to enhance their long-term strategies and improve decision-making in volatile markets. Use it to gain an edge in identifying potential turning points and managing risk effectively.
Marketcycles
Bitcoin Bubble Risk (Adjusted for Diminishing Returns)Description:
This indicator offers a unique lens through which traders can assess risk in the Bitcoin market, specifically tailored to recognize the phenomenon of diminishing returns. By calculating the natural logarithm of the price relative to a 20-month Simple Moving Average (SMA) and applying a dynamic normalization process, this tool highlights periods of varying risk based on historical price movements and adjusted returns. The indicator is designed to provide nuanced insights into potential risk levels, aiding traders in their decision-making processes.
Usage:
To effectively use this indicator, apply it to your chart while ensuring that Bitcoin's price is set to display in monthly candles. This setting is vital for the indicator to accurately reflect the market's risk levels, as it relies on long-term data aggregation to inform its analysis.
This tool is especially beneficial for traders focused on medium to long-term investment horizons in Bitcoin, offering insights into when the market may be entering higher or lower risk phases. By incorporating this indicator into your analysis, you can gain a deeper understanding of potential risk exposures based on the adjusted price trends and market conditions.
Originality and Utility:
This script stands out for its innovative approach to risk analysis in the cryptocurrency space. By adjusting for the diminishing returns seen in mature markets, it provides a refined perspective on risk levels, enhancing traditional methodologies. This script is a significant contribution to the TradingView community, offering a unique tool for traders aiming to navigate the complexities of the Bitcoin market with informed risk management strategies.
Important Note:
This indicator is for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. Users are encouraged to conduct their own research and consult with financial professionals before making investment decisions. The accuracy of the indicator's predictions can only be ensured when applied to monthly candlestick charts of Bitcoin.
Market Time Cycle (Expo)█ Time Cycles Overview
Time cycles are a fascinating and powerful concept in the world of trading and investing. They are all about understanding and predicting the timing of market moves based on the premise that market events and price movements are not random, but instead occur in repeatable, cyclical patterns.
The Concept of Time Cycles: The foundation of time cycles lies in the belief that historical market patterns tend to repeat themselves over specific periods. These periods or cycles could be influenced by a myriad of factors like economic data releases, earnings reports, geopolitical events, or even natural human behavior. For example, some traders observe increased market activity around the start and end of a trading day, which is a form of intraday time cycle.
Understanding time cycles can provide traders with a roadmap, helping them anticipate potential trend shifts and make more informed decisions about when to buy or sell.
█ Indicator Overview
The Market Time Cycle (Expo) is designed to help traders track and analyze market cycles and generate signals for potential trading opportunities. It uses mathematical techniques to analyze market cycles and detect possible turning points. It does this by projecting the estimated cycle timeline and providing visual indications of cyclical phases through the use of color-coded lines and sine wave cycles.
Time cycles offer a compelling way to forecast market trends and time your trades better. By adding time cycles to your trading toolbox, you could potentially gain a new perspective on market movements and refine your trading strategy further. The indicator generates trading signals based on the sine wave's behavior. When the sine wave crosses certain thresholds, the indicator generates a signal suggesting a potential trading opportunity based on cycle behavior.
█ How to use
This indicator can be a valuable tool to help traders understand and predict market trends and time their trades more accurately. By visualizing the cyclic nature of markets, traders can better anticipate potential turning points and adjust their trading strategies accordingly. It helps traders to spot ideal entry and exit points based on the cyclical nature of financial markets.
█ Settings
You can customize the number of bars (NumbOfBars) that are taken into consideration for the cycle. Including a higher number of bars will provide more data, which can be helpful for analyzing long-term trends.
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Disclaimer
The information contained in my Scripts/Indicators/Ideas/Algos/Systems does not constitute financial advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities of any type. I will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from the use of or reliance on such information.
All investments involve risk, and the past performance of a security, industry, sector, market, financial product, trading strategy, backtest, or individual's trading does not guarantee future results or returns. Investors are fully responsible for any investment decisions they make. Such decisions should be based solely on an evaluation of their financial circumstances, investment objectives, risk tolerance, and liquidity needs.
My Scripts/Indicators/Ideas/Algos/Systems are only for educational purposes!
RSI+ by Wilson (alt)Extension of the excellent RSI+ script by Wilsonlibero. I tweaked the parameters to better fit crypto markets, and I added a few more visuals, such as midline, overbought/oversold threshold lines and areas, background coloration depending on RSI trend above or below midline, and a few other tweaks especially colors (fixed the transp parameter deprecation for example). The color theme is by default more optimized for dark mode charts, but all colors can be configured, and all drawings can be enabled/disabled/tweaked in the parameters.
I'm just giving back to the community since I could modify this script only because it was open-source. If you like this script, please don't give me any credit, but please show some love to the original author Wilsonlibero:
Bitcoin Bulls & Bears @dbtr
Bitcoin Bulls & Bears
The "Bitcoin Bulls & Bears" indicator helps you better understand Bitcoin with a high-level view on Bitcoin’s historic price channel, past and current market cycles, as well as current key support levels.
Usage
Use this indicator with any BTCUSD pairs , ideally with a long price history (such as BNC:BLX )
We recommend to use this indicator in log mode, combined with Weekly or Monthly timeframe.
Features
🕵🏻♂️ Historic price channel curve since 2011
🚨 Bull & bear market cycles (dynamic)
🔥 All-time highs (dynamic)
🌟 Weekly support (dynamic, based on 20 SMA)
💪 Long-term support (channel bottom)
🔝 Potential future price targets (dynamic)
📏 Log/non-log support
🌚 Dark mode support
Remarks
Except for the historic price channel curve, all of this indicator is calculated dynamically , including bull/bear market cycles (based on a tweaked 20SMA). Due to this, the historic market cycles may not be 100% accurate and may also differ slightly between time-frames. It may also consider short times of ups/downs to be their own market cycles, even though they weren’t. This dynamic nature allows this indicator to adapt to the future and quickly help you identify changes in market structure.
On top of the that, the bullmarket cycles (green background) feature an ingrained RSI information: the darker the green, the more the RSI is overbought and close to a correction. In combination with past bull cycles, it is easier to spot potential reversal zones.
Thanks
Thanks to @quantadelic and @mabonyi for their pre-work on the price channel information, which I have taken over here
[JOHN] KNIFE CUThEY HELLO PEOPLE, THIS IS KNIFE CUT
This indicator work in sync with SUPER BOSS , check it.
KNIFE CUT
You can consider this as "BUY THE DIP" that is the best part of it. "BUY WHEN THE AREA IS BACK TO GREEN".
Is a special indicator with 2 metrics you can use for be a better trade and stop losing money entering useless positions.
This indicator can:
The Area in the center measure "Market cycles" check below, and "BUY PRESSURE", check the reaction with the price action, impressive? i know.
About the bars green or red, are trend bars, compare it to the price action and you can see that these bars catched all uptrends and downtrends.
(you can change also resolutions of background bars, current H4 resolution if you watch lower timeframes.)
*BUY PRESSURE / TREND BACKGROUND BARS
*MARKET CYCLES
This script work with every exchange and pairs, also forex.
See price history.
You not believe? i believe.
[BERA] KNIFE CUT
Hey beras and bulas, this is my gift for you!
Please message me after you tried my indicators.
This indicator work in sync with SUper BOSS or SB , check it.
KNIFE CUT
Is a special indicator with 2 metrics you can use for be a better trade and stop losing money entering useless positions.
This indicator can:
The Area in the center measure "Market cycles" check below, and "BUY PRESSURE", check the reaction with the price action, impressive? i know.
About the bars green or red, are trend bars, compare it to the price action and you can see that these bars catched all uptrends and downtrends.
(you can change also resolutions of background bars, current H4 resolution if you watch lower timeframes.)
*BUY PRESSURE / TREND BACKGROUND BARS
*MARKET CYCLES
This script work with every exchange and pairs, also forex.
See price history.
You not believe? i believe.
[Maco] PUELL MULTIPLEReverse formulated what the closed source version is and releasing open source publicly to give back to the community.
If you have any questions feel free to join our Discord!
ALPHA: ExhaustionPLEASE READ THE ENTIRE POST BEFORE USING THE ALPHA EXHAUSTION INDICATOR
Capital Exhaustion Cycles
What is capital exhaustion? To explain it simply: Picture you are working out and eventually hit fatigue, at that point your body signals that you can no longer proceed and need to rest. Capital exhaustion with tradable assets (stocks, cryptocurrencies, etc.) occurs the same way. At some point, the market collectively becomes fatigued. Unable to push an asset a certain direction (can be bullish or bearish) the market reverses the direction of the trending price which results in a correction. This is natural & how markets need to work to keep an equilibrium true to the assets value. Being able to measure this in your analysis can be extremely valuable in deciding where to base your trades.
There are some indicators out there such as the TD Sequential (created by Tom Demark) that attempt to measure the exhaustion rate and identify potential capital shifts. I began to use the TD Sequential around 2012 when a colleague of mine sent me an article from Bloomberg on this theory used to measure exhaustion. The theory goes like this: If a candle within a trend is higher (or lower in the case of a bear trend) than the fourth candle back then the trend continues. By Tom Demark's theory the ninth candle is typically where the trend reverses and one must watch for a potential entry on a capital shift. There is a few factors that go into trading the TD Sequential (in addition to other elements he created for measuring such) that we wont get into, I'll explain why....
After using the TD for some years now I have found the reliability and use of it for analysis to be semi-flawed. Yes, there is trend reversals at some of the parameters Tom Demark outlined, but overall I have found the sequential part of it to not only be difficult to use, but also inaccurate to an extent that makes me uncomfortable when factoring it into my analysis. Yes, there are many successful traders that have used the TD in their analysis and have had great success with it. However, I feel the theory behind it can be improved and the visuals of it can be altered to be more user friendly.
This put me on a search for a more reliable and facile method to measure capital exhaustion. There is nothing perfect with Technical Analysis, if there was, one could theoretically own the entire market over time, so I approached this task with that in mind. As I begin to explain my ALPHA: Exhaustion indicator keep this in mind: Nothing can be perfected when it comes to measuring the predictability of human psychology and markets. However, I believe I have found a way to measure capital exhaustion in a clean, accurate, and easy to understand method. Applying this indicator to an analysis can greatly improve the accuracy, reliability and speed of an analyst. I've also added some really neat "safety precautions" to the indicator to indicate when an already confirmed trend is showing weakness (such as chop) or a premature reversal.
That being said, I introduce to you a new series of indicators created in my digital moon lab with a team of analysts: ALPHA
The ALPHA series will launch with this indicator first. From here I will be introducing a whole series of improved indicators to add to your analysis techniques. Bigger shake ups coming soon in the world of volume and strength oscillators. ;)
Introduction
My approach with the ALPHA: Exhaustion is simple, color the candles on a gradient scale based on my exhaustion method for an analyst to easily identify the rate of exhaustion. Additionally, add simple features that help confirm whether a trend has a confirmed beginning and ending. Furthermore I took it a step further and added features that detect weakness in a confirmed trend and give you early indications that the trend may reverse or cancel .
Keeping the advanced analyst in mind I also added options to identify unconfirmed trend beginnings and aggressive endings. These parameters are loose and designed for the analyst who has the comfort of being an aggressive trader. I will get into those options last as they are extremely speculative. The default options on the indicator are designed to show confirmed trends. As you play with this indicator you will discover that many times a wild swing has happened but the indicator was unable to identify it. The reason being is it is meant to identify CONFIRMED trends & be used with other indicators during an analysis, not just used for signals or independently of other analysis tools.
There are many factors that go into an assets price movement, exhaustion, volume, strength, momentum and more, it is unreasonable to think that one should base their analysis off of one of those factors alone. Technical analysis is like a puzzle, you have many puzzle pieces and its impossible to see the entire picture of the puzzle until you fit all those pieces together.
Candle Coloring
Seen below we have a clear trend beginning, the candles begin their normal color of green, as the trend continues the gradient of the white becomes brighter indicating exhaustion.
As the trend continues the indicator identifies that the market is exhausting and colors the candles a brighter white. (see below)
Eventually once the trend exhausts the indicator identifies & confirms the exhaustion and reverts back the coloring in real time as price adjusts. But wait there is more!
Safety Symbols
There is an option to turn the safety symbols off and on as can be seen in this link below:
imgur.com
This option does two things. The first is it adds half crescents to the top or bottom of a trend like the image below.
These half crescents indicate that the trend is beyond normal exhaustion parameters but is still continuing. At this point, this is where I pay attention and watch for the crescents to disappear. When the crescents disappear the candle coloring will change back to normal indicating that trend has confirmed as exhausted. It is entirely possible to have one or two candles of chop and then it continues but generally it has meant exhaustion criteria. One feature I have added is once the crescents disappear the indicator watches for a confirmed trend reversal to begin and will paint an arrow showing the trend reversal confirmation. We will get into that later though.
The second feature of the safety symbols is the risk line. The option also enables the risk line of the prior trends top. (See image below)
If a trader were to find entries of a confirmed trend based on the indicator painting the confirmed trend arrow (will explain further down) then one could place their stop loss there, but proper analysis should be done and decided upon by the user . (Keep in mind this is an indicator for analysis, not a signal generating system, please be sure to read the disclosures on my website www.thetradingwizard.com and also the disclosure at the end of this post)
Confirmed Trend
By default the indicator paints a pink (for downtrend confirmation) or blue (uptrend) arrow on a confirmed trend reversal after exhaustion of a prior trend.
The arrow paints in real time as the criteria is met of an exhausted trend on the third candle. Once the prior trend is exhausted (can happen with or without the crescent safety (or pay attention) symbols. The design of it can sometimes be late in an assets movement, but its meant to be a confirmed trend at that point.
Trend End
Additionally, after a confirmed trend beginning the indicator watches for weakness or a trend ending criteria match. When it identifies such, the indicator paints a pink or blue (depending on the direction) stop sign.
These trend endings can come in two forms, the indicator has realized trend exhaustion has occurred and is going to reverse very near, or it has identified weakness in capital exhaustion and paints the symbol to let you know the trend is either going to reverse, or chop. (sideways with no clear trend) Below is examples of when the indicator identified the weakness early in real time after a trend start confirmation.
As can be seen above the indicator confirmed an uptrend and then later identified weakness in the trend indicating an early termination before the risk line was hit. It is typically early (by design) but there is an option for a more aggressive trend ending. This has less confirmation protocols built in when enabled, I will explain that in the next section.
Aggressive Trend End
Seen in the link here is the Aggressive trend end option:
imgur.com
This option loosens the rules & parameters for a trend ending and gives a more aggressive view of a trend end. This is for aggressive analysts that would like a less confirmed trend ending.
Aggressive Unconfirmed Trend
Another option that can be enabled is Aggressive Trend arrows. In order to use this you must enable Aggressive Trend Ending:
imgur.com
What this option does is identify in real time early trends that are unconfirmed . You will get a lot of arrows painted with this option enabled but it is designed for analysts who take a more aggressive & unconfirmed approach to trading.
Conclusion
I wanted to create a more accurate and easy to use indicator for identifying exhaustion cycles, I believe this does so. That being said, it is extremely important to note as I did in the intro that this is an analysis tool, simply a piece to add to your analysis arsenal. Never rely on one piece of information for analysis as technical analysis is a complex art that requires many data inputs. This indicator can be used on all time frames with all tradable assets.
This indicator is available for TradingView users on my web site www.thetradingwizard.com for $99, that includes a life time subscription. Everybody that uses this indicator will get a private group class with it that I will schedule sometime next week (3/4/19-3/8/19) to explain various methods this can be used with analysis and answer any questions the users may have. If you purchase after those dates I will still send the class recording. Additionally I will be doing a public stream on my YouTube either tonight or tomorrow introducing this. Enjoy and trade safe!
www.thetradingwizard.com
Disclaimer
Nothing in this post is to be used or construed as financial advice. The indicator is not a signal generating indicator and should not be used to trade off of solely. This post is meant as an educational post to explain the functions of the indicator.
