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การวิเคราะห์ปัจจัยพื้นฐาน

EMA 9/26 Cross (Signals + Alerts)What it calculates EMA 9 (fast) and EMA 26 (slow) on whatever price source you pick (default: close). It watches for two events: Bullish cross (BUY): EMA 9 crosses above EMA 26 (ta.crossover) Bearish cross (SELL): EMA 9 crosses below EMA 26 (ta.crossunder) What you see on the chart Two EMA lines (fast + slow), plotted on the price chart (overlay=true). Optional markers: A triangle up under the candle labeled BUY on bullish cross. A triangle down above the candle labeled SELL on bearish cross. What you can customize (inputs) Source (close, open, hl2, etc.) Fast EMA length (defaults to 9) Slow EMA length (defaults to 26) Toggle to show/hide EMAs Toggle to show/hide markers Alerts (the important part) It defines two alertcondition() rules: “EMA 9/26 Bullish Cross” fires exactly when the bullish crossover happens. “EMA 9/26 Bearish Cross” fires exactly when the bearish crossunder happens. So in TradingView you can create alerts like: Notify/push/email/webhook when BUY happens Notify/push/email/webhook when SELL happens What it does not do It doesn’t place trades or track performance (no entries/exits, no P&L). It won’t “stay long” or “stay short”—it only flags the moment of the cross. If you want, I can modify Option A to: only alert on confirmed bar close (to avoid intrabar “false crosses”), add trend filter (e.g., only BUY if price > EMA200), or add a cooldown so it won’t spam signals in choppy markets.
อินดิเคเตอร์ Pine Script®
โดย testaservices
orb by codeUltimate Opening Range Break (ORB) Tool Shows the future NY and ASIA sessions with a countdown timer. Toggle past sessions, future session markers, midlines, countdown boxes, and all labels for the opening range breakout. Takes the high, low, midline of the 15 min candle 1 hour into the sessions. Customize every color element — including fills, highs, lows, and midlines for both NY and Asia sessions. Built for traders who want a clean, flexible, and powerful ORB workflow.
อินดิเคเตอร์ Pine Script®
โดย CodyKing
Penny Stock Short Signal Pro# Penny Stock Short Signal Pro (PSSP) v1.0 ## Complete User Guide & Documentation --- # 📋 TABLE OF CONTENTS 1. (#introduction) 2. (#why-short-penny-stocks) 3. (#the-7-core-detection-systems) 4. (#installation--setup) 5. (#understanding-the-dashboard) 6. (#input-settings-deep-dive) 7. (#visual-elements-explained) 8. (#alert-configuration) 9. (#trading-strategies) 10. (#risk-management) 11. (#best-practices) 12. (#troubleshooting) 13. (#changelog) --- # Introduction **Penny Stock Short Signal Pro (PSSP)** is a comprehensive Pine Script v6 indicator specifically engineered for identifying high-probability short-selling opportunities on low-priced, high-volatility stocks. Unlike generic indicators that apply broad technical analysis, PSSP is purpose-built for the unique characteristics of penny stock price action—where parabolic moves, retail FOMO, and violent reversals create predictable patterns for prepared traders. ## Key Features - **7 Independent Detection Systems** working in concert to identify exhaustion points - **Composite Signal Engine** that requires multiple confirmations before triggering - **Real-Time Dashboard** displaying all signal states and market metrics - **Automatic Risk Management** with dynamic stop-loss and profit target calculations - **Customizable Sensitivity** for different trading styles (scalping vs. swing) - **Built-in Alert System** for all major signal types ## Who Is This For? - **Active Day Traders** looking to capitalize on intraday reversals - **Short Sellers** who specialize in penny stocks and small caps - **Momentum Traders** who want to identify when momentum is exhausting - **Risk-Conscious Traders** who need clear entry/exit levels --- # Why Short Penny Stocks? ## The Penny Stock Lifecycle Penny stocks follow a remarkably predictable lifecycle that creates shorting opportunities: ``` PHASE 1: ACCUMULATION └── Low volume, tight range └── Smart money quietly building positions PHASE 2: MARKUP / PROMOTION └── News catalyst or promotional campaign └── Volume increases, price begins rising └── Early momentum traders enter PHASE 3: DISTRIBUTION (YOUR OPPORTUNITY) └── Parabolic move attracts retail FOMO buyers └── Smart money selling into strength └── Volume climax signals exhaustion └── ⚠️ PSSP SIGNALS FIRE HERE ⚠️ PHASE 4: DECLINE └── Support breaks, panic selling └── Price returns toward origin └── Short sellers profit ``` ## Why Shorts Work on Penny Stocks 1. **No Fundamental Support**: Most penny stocks have no earnings, revenue, or assets to justify elevated prices 2. **Promotional Nature**: Many rallies are driven by promoters who will eventually stop 3. **Retail Exhaustion**: Retail buying power is finite—when it's exhausted, gravity takes over 4. **Float Dynamics**: Low float stocks move fast in both directions 5. **Technical Levels Matter**: VWAP, round numbers, and prior highs become self-fulfilling resistance --- # The 7 Core Detection Systems PSSP employs seven independent detection algorithms. Each identifies a specific type of exhaustion or reversal signal. When multiple systems fire simultaneously, the probability of a successful short dramatically increases. --- ## 1. PARABOLIC EXHAUSTION DETECTOR ### What It Detects Identifies when price has moved too far, too fast and is likely to reverse. This system looks for the classic "blow-off top" pattern common in penny stock runners. ### Technical Logic ``` Parabolic Signal = TRUE when: ├── Consecutive green candles ≥ threshold (default: 3) ├── AND price extension from VWAP ≥ threshold ATRs (default: 1.5) └── OR shooting star / upper wick rejection pattern forms ``` ### Visual Representation ``` ╱╲ ← Shooting star / upper wick ╱ ╲ (Parabolic exhaustion) ╱ ╱ ╱ ══════════════ VWAP ╱ ╱ ``` ### Why It Works on Penny Stocks Penny stocks are notorious for parabolic moves driven by retail FOMO. When everyone who wants to buy has bought, there's no one left to push prices higher. The shooting star pattern shows that sellers are already stepping in at higher prices. ### Key Settings | Parameter | Default | Range | Description | |-----------|---------|-------|-------------| | Lookback Period | 10 | 3-30 | Bars to analyze for pattern | | Extension Threshold | 1.5 ATR | 0.5-5.0 | How far above VWAP is "parabolic" | | Consecutive Green Bars | 3 | 2-10 | Minimum green bars for exhaustion | --- ## 2. VWAP REJECTION SYSTEM ### What It Detects Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP) is the single most important level for institutional traders. This system identifies when price tests above VWAP and gets rejected back below—a powerful short signal. ### Technical Logic ``` VWAP Rejection = TRUE when: ├── Candle high pierces above VWAP ├── AND candle closes below VWAP ├── AND candle is bearish (close < open) └── AND rejection distance is within sensitivity threshold ``` ### Visual Representation ``` High ──→ ╱╲ ╱ ╲ VWAP ════════╱════╲═══════════ Close ←── Rejection ``` ### Extended VWAP Signals The system also tracks VWAP standard deviation bands. Rejection from the upper band (2 standard deviations above VWAP) is an even stronger signal. ### Why It Works on Penny Stocks - Algorithms and institutions use VWAP as their benchmark - Failed attempts to reclaim VWAP often lead to waterfall selling - VWAP acts as a "magnet" that price tends to revert toward ### Key Settings | Parameter | Default | Range | Description | |-----------|---------|-------|-------------| | Rejection Sensitivity | 0.5 ATR | 0.1-2.0 | How close to VWAP for valid rejection | | Show VWAP Line | True | - | Display VWAP on chart | | Show VWAP Bands | True | - | Display standard deviation bands | | Band Multiplier | 2.0 | 0.5-4.0 | Standard deviations for bands | --- ## 3. VOLUME CLIMAX DETECTOR ### What It Detects Identifies "blow-off tops" where extreme volume accompanies a price spike. This often marks the exact top as it represents maximum retail participation—after which buying power is exhausted. ### Technical Logic ``` Volume Climax = TRUE when: ├── Current volume ≥ (Average volume × Climax Multiple) ├── AND one of: │ ├── Selling into the high (upper wick > lower wick on green bar) │ └── OR post-climax weakness (red bar following climax bar) ``` ### Visual Representation ``` Price: ╱╲ ╱ ╲ ╱ ╲ ╱ ╲ ╱ Volume: ▂▃▅▇██▇▅▃▂▁ ↑ Volume Climax (3x+ average) ``` ### Why It Works on Penny Stocks - Retail traders pile in at the top, creating volume spikes - Market makers and smart money use this liquidity to exit - Once the volume spike passes, there's no fuel left for higher prices - The "smart money selling into dumb money buying" creates the top ### Key Settings | Parameter | Default | Range | Description | |-----------|---------|-------|-------------| | Volume MA Length | 20 | 5-50 | Period for average volume calculation | | Climax Volume Multiple | 3.0x | 1.5-10.0 | Multiple of average for "climax" | | Show Volume Bars | True | - | Visual volume representation | --- ## 4. RSI DIVERGENCE ANALYZER ### What It Detects Bearish divergence occurs when price makes higher highs but RSI (momentum) makes lower highs. This indicates that momentum is weakening even as price pushes higher—a warning of imminent reversal. ### Technical Logic ``` Bearish Divergence = TRUE when: ├── RSI is in overbought territory (> threshold) ├── AND RSI is declining (current < previous < prior) └── Indicates momentum exhaustion before price catches up ``` ### Visual Representation ``` Price: /\ /\ / \ / \ ← Higher high / \/ / / RSI: /\ / \ /\ / \/ \ ← Lower high (DIVERGENCE) / \ ════════════════════ Overbought (70) ``` ### Why It Works on Penny Stocks - Penny stocks often push to new highs on weaker and weaker momentum - Divergence signals that fewer buyers are participating at each new high - Eventually, the lack of buying pressure leads to collapse ### Key Settings | Parameter | Default | Range | Description | |-----------|---------|-------|-------------| | RSI Length | 14 | 5-30 | Standard RSI calculation period | | Overbought Level | 70 | 60-90 | RSI level considered overbought | | Divergence Lookback | 14 | 5-30 | Bars to look back for swing highs | --- ## 5. KEY LEVEL REJECTION TRACKER ### What It Detects Identifies rejections from significant price levels where shorts are likely to be concentrated: High of Day (HOD), premarket highs, and psychological levels (whole and half dollars). ### Technical Logic ``` Level Rejection = TRUE when: ├── Price touches key level (within 0.2% tolerance) ├── AND candle is bearish (close < open) ├── AND close is in lower portion of candle range │ ├── Key Levels Tracked: │ ├── High of Day (HOD) │ ├── Premarket High │ └── Psychological levels ($1.00, $1.50, $2.00, etc.) ``` ### Visual Representation ``` HOD ───────────────────────────────── ╱╲ ← Rejection ╱ ╲ ╱ ╲ ╱ ───────────────────────────────── PM High ───────────────────────────── ``` ### Why It Works on Penny Stocks - **HOD**: The high of day is where the most traders are trapped long. Failure to break HOD often triggers stop-loss cascades - **Premarket High**: Represents overnight enthusiasm; failure to exceed often means the "news" is priced in - **Psychological Levels**: Round numbers ($1, $2, $5) attract orders and act as natural resistance ### Key Settings | Parameter | Default | Range | Description | |-----------|---------|-------|-------------| | Track HOD Rejection | True | - | Monitor high of day | | Track Premarket High | True | - | Monitor premarket resistance | | Track Psychological Levels | True | - | Monitor round numbers | --- ## 6. FAILED BREAKOUT DETECTOR ### What It Detects Identifies "bull traps" where price breaks above resistance but immediately fails and closes back below. This traps breakout buyers and often leads to accelerated selling. ### Technical Logic ``` Failed Breakout = TRUE when: ├── Price breaks above recent high (lookback period) ├── AND one of: │ ├── Same bar closes below the breakout level │ └── OR following bars show consecutive red candles ``` ### Visual Representation ``` ╱╲ ╱ ╲ ← False breakout Recent High ══╱════╲════════════════ ╱ ╲ ╱ ╲ ╱ ╲ ← Trapped longs panic sell ``` ### Why It Works on Penny Stocks - Breakout traders enter on the break, providing exit liquidity for smart money - When the breakout fails, these traders become trapped and must exit - Their forced selling accelerates the decline - Penny stocks have thin order books, making failed breakouts especially violent ### Key Settings | Parameter | Default | Range | Description | |-----------|---------|-------|-------------| | Breakout Lookback | 5 | 2-15 | Bars to define "recent high" | | Confirmation Bars | 2 | 1-5 | Bars to confirm failure | --- ## 7. MOVING AVERAGE BREAKDOWN SYSTEM ### What It Detects Monitors exponential moving averages (EMAs) for bearish crossovers and price rejections. EMA crosses often signal trend changes, while rejections from EMAs indicate resistance. ### Technical Logic ``` MA Breakdown = TRUE when: ├── Bearish EMA cross (fast crosses below slow) └── OR EMA rejection (price tests EMA from below and fails) ``` ### Visual Representation ``` ╱╲ ← Rejection from EMA ╱ ╲ EMA 9 ═══════════╱════╲═══════════ ╲ EMA 20 ═══════════════════╲════════ ╲ Bearish cross ↓ ``` ### Why It Works on Penny Stocks - EMAs smooth out the noise and show underlying trend direction - When fast EMA crosses below slow EMA, it signals momentum shift - Rejected attempts to reclaim EMAs show sellers are in control ### Key Settings | Parameter | Default | Range | Description | |-----------|---------|-------|-------------| | Fast EMA | 9 | 3-20 | Short-term trend | | Slow EMA | 20 | 10-50 | Medium-term trend | | Show EMAs | True | - | Display on chart | --- # Installation & Setup ## Step 1: Access Pine Editor 1. Open TradingView (tradingview.com) 2. Open any chart 3. Click "Pine Editor" at the bottom of the screen ## Step 2: Create New Indicator 1. Click "Open" → "New blank indicator" 2. Delete any existing code 3. Paste the entire PSSP code ## Step 3: Save and Add to Chart 1. Click "Save" (give it a name like "PSSP") 2. Click "Add to chart" 3. The indicator will appear with default settings ## Step 4: Configure Settings 1. Click the gear icon (⚙️) on the indicator 2. Adjust settings based on your trading style (see Settings section) 3. Click "OK" to apply ## Recommended Chart Setup - **Timeframe**: 1-minute or 5-minute for scalping, 15-minute for swing shorts - **Chart Type**: Candlestick - **Extended Hours**: Enable if trading premarket/afterhours - **Volume**: Can disable default volume since PSSP tracks it --- # Understanding the Dashboard The real-time dashboard provides at-a-glance status of all systems: ``` ┌─────────────────────────────────────────┐ │ 📊 SHORT SIGNAL DASHBOARD │ ├─────────────────────────────────────────┤ │ Signal Strength: 5/7 │ ├─────────────────────────────────────────┤ │ ─── ACTIVE SIGNALS ─── │ │ │ │ Parabolic Exhaustion 🔴 2.1 ATR │ │ VWAP Rejection 🔴 Above │ │ Volume Climax 🔴 4.2x Avg │ │ RSI Divergence ⚪ RSI: 68 │ │ Level Rejection 🔴 @ HOD │ │ Failed Breakout 🔴 │ │ MA Breakdown ⚪ Bullish │ ├─────────────────────────────────────────┤ │ ─── RISK LEVELS ─── │ │ Stop: $2.45 T1: $2.10 T2: $1.85 │ └─────────────────────────────────────────┘ ``` ## Dashboard Elements Explained ### Signal Strength Indicator | Rating | Signals | Color | Interpretation | |--------|---------|-------|----------------| | STRONG | 5-7 | Red | High-confidence short opportunity | | MODERATE | 3-4 | Orange | Decent setup, consider other factors | | WEAK | 1-2 | Gray | Insufficient confirmation | | NONE | 0 | Gray | No short signals active | ### Signal Status Icons - 🔴 = Signal is ACTIVE (condition met) - ⚪ = Signal is INACTIVE (condition not met) ### Contextual Metrics Each signal row includes relevant metrics: - **Parabolic**: Shows ATR extension from VWAP - **VWAP**: Shows if price is Above/Below VWAP - **Volume**: Shows current volume as multiple of average - **RSI**: Shows current RSI value - **Level**: Shows which level was touched (HOD, PM High, etc.) - **MA**: Shows EMA relationship (Bullish/Bearish) ### Risk Levels When a composite short signal fires: - **Stop**: Suggested stop-loss level (high + ATR multiple) - **T1**: First profit target (1:1 risk/reward) - **T2**: Second profit target (user-defined R:R) --- # Input Settings Deep Dive ## Group 1: Parabolic Exhaustion | Setting | Default | Conservative | Aggressive | Description | |---------|---------|--------------|------------|-------------| | Enable | True | True | True | Turn system on/off | | Lookback Period | 10 | 15 | 5 | Bars analyzed for pattern | | Extension Threshold | 1.5 | 2.0 | 1.0 | ATRs above VWAP for "parabolic" | | Consecutive Green Bars | 3 | 4 | 2 | Minimum green bars required | **Tuning Tips:** - Lower thresholds = more signals but more false positives - Higher thresholds = fewer signals but higher quality - For very volatile penny stocks, consider higher thresholds ## Group 2: VWAP Rejection | Setting | Default | Conservative | Aggressive | Description | |---------|---------|--------------|------------|-------------| | Enable | True | True | True | Turn system on/off | | Rejection Sensitivity | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.8 | ATR distance for valid rejection | | Show VWAP Line | True | True | True | Display VWAP | | Show VWAP Bands | True | True | True | Display deviation bands | | Band Multiplier | 2.0 | 2.5 | 1.5 | Standard deviations for bands | **Tuning Tips:** - Tighter sensitivity (lower number) = must reject very close to VWAP - Wider bands = less frequent upper band rejections but more significant ## Group 3: Volume Climax | Setting | Default | Conservative | Aggressive | Description | |---------|---------|--------------|------------|-------------| | Enable | True | True | True | Turn system on/off | | Volume MA Length | 20 | 30 | 10 | Baseline volume period | | Climax Volume Multiple | 3.0 | 4.0 | 2.0 | Multiple for "climax" status | | Show Volume Profile | True | True | True | Visual volume bars | **Tuning Tips:** - Higher multiple = only extreme volume spikes trigger - Shorter MA = more responsive to recent volume changes - For highly liquid stocks, consider higher multiples ## Group 4: Momentum Divergence | Setting | Default | Conservative | Aggressive | Description | |---------|---------|--------------|------------|-------------| | Enable | True | True | True | Turn system on/off | | RSI Length | 14 | 21 | 7 | RSI calculation period | | Overbought Level | 70 | 75 | 65 | Threshold for "overbought" | | Divergence Lookback | 14 | 20 | 10 | Bars for swing high detection | **Tuning Tips:** - Lower overbought threshold = more frequent signals - Shorter RSI length = more responsive but noisier ## Group 5: Key Level Rejection | Setting | Default | Description | |---------|---------|-------------| | Enable | True | Master toggle for level system | | Track Premarket High | True | Monitor premarket resistance | | Track HOD Rejection | True | Monitor high of day | | Track Psychological Levels | True | Monitor round numbers | **Tuning Tips:** - Disable premarket tracking if stock doesn't have significant premarket activity - Psychological levels work best on stocks under $10 ## Group 6: Failed Follow-Through | Setting | Default | Conservative | Aggressive | Description | |---------|---------|--------------|------------|-------------| | Enable | True | True | True | Turn system on/off | | Breakout Lookback | 5 | 8 | 3 | Bars defining "recent high" | | Confirmation Bars | 2 | 3 | 1 | Bars to confirm failure | **Tuning Tips:** - Shorter lookback = more breakouts detected but smaller significance - More confirmation bars = higher confidence but later entry ## Group 7: Moving Average Signals | Setting | Default | Conservative | Aggressive | Description | |---------|---------|--------------|------------|-------------| | Enable | True | True | True | Turn system on/off | | Fast EMA | 9 | 12 | 5 | Short-term trend | | Slow EMA | 20 | 26 | 13 | Medium-term trend | | Show EMAs | True | True | True | Display on chart | **Tuning Tips:** - Standard 9/20 works well for most penny stocks - Faster EMAs (5/13) for scalping, slower (12/26) for swing trading ## Group 8: Composite Signal | Setting | Default | Conservative | Aggressive | Description | |---------|---------|--------------|------------|-------------| | Minimum Signals | 3 | 4-5 | 2 | Signals needed for trigger | | Show Dashboard | True | True | True | Display signal table | | Dashboard Position | top_right | - | - | Screen location | **Tuning Tips:** - **Minimum Signals is the most important setting** - Higher minimum = fewer trades but higher win rate - Lower minimum = more trades but more false signals ## Group 9: Risk Management | Setting | Default | Conservative | Aggressive | Description | |---------|---------|--------------|------------|-------------| | Show Stop Levels | True | True | True | Display stop loss | | Stop ATR Multiple | 1.5 | 2.0 | 1.0 | Stop distance in ATRs | | Show Targets | True | True | True | Display profit targets | | Target R:R | 2.0 | 1.5 | 3.0 | Risk:Reward for Target 2 | **Tuning Tips:** - Tighter stops (lower ATR multiple) = less risk but more stop-outs - Higher R:R targets = bigger winners but fewer targets hit ## Group 10: Visual Settings | Setting | Default | Description | |---------|---------|-------------| | Bullish Color | Green | Color for bullish elements | | Bearish Color | Red | Color for bearish/short signals | | Warning Color | Orange | Color for caution signals | | Neutral Color | Gray | Color for inactive elements | --- # Visual Elements Explained ## Chart Overlays ### VWAP Line (Blue) - **Solid blue line** = Volume Weighted Average Price - Price above VWAP = bullish bias - Price below VWAP = bearish bias - **Use**: Short when price rejects from above VWAP ### VWAP Bands (Purple circles) - Upper band = 2 standard deviations above VWAP - Lower band = 2 standard deviations below VWAP - **Use**: Extreme extension to upper band signals potential reversal ### EMAs (Orange and Red) - **Orange line** = Fast EMA (9-period default) - **Red line** = Slow EMA (20-period default) - **Use**: Bearish cross or price rejection from EMAs confirms short ### HOD Line (Red, dashed) - Shows the current day's high - **Use**: Rejection from HOD is a key short signal ### Premarket High (Orange, dashed) - Shows premarket session high - **Use**: Failure to break PM high often signals weakness ## Signal Markers ### Individual Signal Markers (Small) | Shape | Color | Signal | |-------|-------|--------| | ▼ Triangle | Purple | Parabolic Exhaustion | | ✕ X-Cross | Blue | VWAP Rejection | | ◆ Diamond | Yellow | Volume Climax | | ● Circle | Orange | RSI Divergence | | ■ Square | Red | Failed Breakout | ### Composite Short Signal (Large) - **Large red triangle** with "SHORT" text - Only appears when minimum signal threshold is met - This is your primary trading signal ## Risk Level Lines ### Stop Loss (Red line) - Calculated as: Entry + (ATR × Stop Multiple) - Represents maximum acceptable loss - **RESPECT THIS LEVEL** ### Target 1 (Light green line) - First profit target at 1:1 risk/reward - Consider taking partial profits here ### Target 2 (Dark green line) - Second profit target at user-defined R:R - Let winners run to this level ## Background Coloring ### Light Red Background - Appears when composite short signal is active - Indicates you should be looking for shorts, not longs ### Light Purple Background - Appears during extreme parabolic extension - Warning of potential imminent reversal --- # Alert Configuration ## Available Alerts ### 1. Composite Short Signal **Best for**: Primary trading signal ``` Condition: Composite short signal fires Message: "PSSP: Short Signal Triggered - {ticker} at {close}" ``` ### 2. Parabolic Exhaustion **Best for**: Early warning of potential top ``` Condition: Parabolic exhaustion detected Message: "PSSP: Parabolic exhaustion detected on {ticker}" ``` ### 3. Volume Climax **Best for**: Blow-off top identification ``` Condition: Volume climax occurs Message: "PSSP: Volume climax / blow-off top on {ticker}" ``` ### 4. Strong Short Setup (5+ Signals) **Best for**: High-confidence opportunities only ``` Condition: 5 or more signals active Message: "PSSP: STRONG short setup on {ticker}" ``` ### 5. Very Strong Short Setup (6+ Signals) **Best for**: Maximum confidence trades ``` Condition: 6 or more signals active Message: "PSSP: VERY STRONG short setup on {ticker}" ``` ### 6. Failed Breakout **Best for**: Bull trap identification ``` Condition: Failed breakout detected Message: "PSSP: Failed breakout detected on {ticker}" ``` ### 7. Key Level Rejection **Best for**: Resistance level plays ``` Condition: Key level rejection occurs Message: "PSSP: Key level rejection on {ticker}" ``` ## Setting Up Alerts in TradingView 1. Right-click on the chart 2. Select "Add Alert" 3. Set Condition to "Penny Stock Short Signal Pro" 4. Choose your desired alert condition 5. Configure notification method (popup, email, webhook, etc.) 6. Set expiration (or "Open-ended" for permanent) 7. Click "Create" ## Alert Strategy Recommendations ### For Active Day Traders - Enable: Composite Short Signal, Volume Climax - Set to: Popup + Sound - Check frequently during market hours ### For Swing Traders - Enable: Strong Short Setup (5+), Very Strong Short Setup (6+) - Set to: Email + Mobile Push - Review at key times (open, lunch, close) ### For Part-Time Traders - Enable: Very Strong Short Setup (6+) only - Set to: Email + SMS - Only trade highest-conviction setups --- # Trading Strategies ## Strategy 1: The Parabolic Fade **Setup Requirements:** - Parabolic Exhaustion signal ACTIVE - Extension from VWAP ≥ 2.0 ATR - Volume climax or declining volume on push **Entry:** - Short on first red candle after signal - Or short on break below prior candle's low **Stop Loss:** - Above the high of the parabolic move - Maximum: 1.5 ATR above entry **Targets:** - T1: VWAP (take 50% off) - T2: Lower VWAP band or LOD **Best Time:** 9:30-10:30 AM (morning runners) --- ## Strategy 2: VWAP Rejection Short **Setup Requirements:** - VWAP Rejection signal ACTIVE - Price came from below VWAP - Rejection candle has significant upper wick **Entry:** - Short on close below VWAP - Or short on break below rejection candle low **Stop Loss:** - Above VWAP + 0.5 ATR - Or above rejection candle high **Targets:** - T1: Lower VWAP band - T2: Prior support or LOD **Best Time:** Midday (11:00 AM - 2:00 PM) --- ## Strategy 3: HOD Failure Short **Setup Requirements:** - Level Rejection signal ACTIVE (HOD) - Multiple tests of HOD without breakthrough - Volume declining on each test **Entry:** - Short on confirmed HOD rejection - Wait for close below the rejection candle **Stop Loss:** - Above HOD + 0.25 ATR (tight) - Clear invalidation if HOD breaks **Targets:** - T1: VWAP - T2: Morning support levels **Best Time:** 10:30 AM - 12:00 PM --- ## Strategy 4: Volume Climax Fade **Setup Requirements:** - Volume Climax signal ACTIVE - Volume ≥ 3x average on green candle - Followed by bearish candle or upper wick **Entry:** - Short on first red candle after climax - Or short on break below climax candle low **Stop Loss:** - Above climax candle high - Give room for volatility spike **Targets:** - T1: 50% retracement of the run - T2: VWAP or start of the run **Best Time:** First hour of trading --- ## Strategy 5: The Full Composite (High Conviction) **Setup Requirements:** - Composite Short signal ACTIVE - Minimum 4-5 individual signals - Clear visual of signal markers clustering **Entry:** - Short immediately on composite signal - Use market order for fast-moving stocks **Stop Loss:** - Use indicator's automatic stop level - Do not deviate from system **Targets:** - T1: Indicator's T1 level (1:1) - T2: Indicator's T2 level (2:1) **Best Time:** Any time with sufficient signals --- # Risk Management ## Position Sizing Formula ``` Position Size = (Account Risk %) / (Stop Loss %) Example: - Account: $25,000 - Risk per trade: 1% = $250 - Entry: $2.00 - Stop: $2.20 (10% stop) - Position Size: $250 / 10% = $2,500 worth - Shares: $2,500 / $2.00 = 1,250 shares ``` ## Risk Rules ### The 1% Rule Never risk more than 1% of your account on any single trade. For a $25,000 account, max risk = $250. ### The 2x Stop Rule If your stop gets hit twice on the same stock, stop trading it for the day. The pattern isn't working. ### The Daily Loss Limit Set a maximum daily loss (e.g., 3% of account). Stop trading if hit. ### The Size-Down Rule After a losing trade, reduce your next position size by 50%. Rebuild after a winner. ## Short-Specific Risks ### The Short Squeeze - Penny stocks can squeeze violently - ALWAYS use stops - Never "hope" a position comes back - Size appropriately for volatility ### The Hard-to-Borrow - Check borrow availability before trading - High borrow fees eat into profits - Some stocks become HTB mid-trade ### The Halt Risk - Penny stocks can halt on volatility - Position size for worst-case halt against you - Halts can open significantly higher --- # Best Practices ## DO's ✅ **Wait for multiple signals** - Single signals have lower accuracy ✅ **Trade with the trend** - Short when daily trend is down ✅ **Use the dashboard** - Check signal count before entering ✅ **Respect stops** - The indicator calculates them for a reason ✅ **Size appropriately** - Penny stocks are volatile; position small ✅ **Trade liquid stocks** - Volume ≥ 500K daily average ✅ **Know the catalyst** - Understand why the stock is moving ✅ **Take partial profits** - Secure gains at T1 ✅ **Journal your trades** - Track what works and what doesn't ✅ **Time your entries** - Best shorts often come 10:30-11:30 AM ## DON'Ts ❌ **Don't short strong stocks** - If it won't go down, don't force it ❌ **Don't fight the tape** - A stock going up can keep going up ❌ **Don't average up on losers** - Adding to losing shorts is dangerous ❌ **Don't ignore the dashboard** - It exists to help you ❌ **Don't overtrade** - Quality over quantity ❌ **Don't short into news** - Wait for the reaction first ❌ **Don't trade the first 5 minutes** - Too chaotic for reliable signals ❌ **Don't hold overnight** - Penny stock gaps can destroy accounts ❌ **Don't trade without stops** - Ever. ❌ **Don't trade on tilt** - After losses, take a break ## Optimal Trading Windows | Time (ET) | Quality | Notes | |-----------|---------|-------| | 9:30-9:35 | ⭐ | Too volatile, avoid | | 9:35-10:30 | ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ | Best shorts, morning runners exhaust | | 10:30-11:30 | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ | Secondary exhaustion, HOD rejections | | 11:30-2:00 | ⭐⭐ | Midday lull, lower quality | | 2:00-3:00 | ⭐⭐⭐ | Afternoon setups develop | | 3:00-3:30 | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ | End of day momentum | | 3:30-4:00 | ⭐⭐ | Closing volatility, risky | --- # Troubleshooting ## Common Issues ### "Signals aren't appearing" - Check that the relevant system is enabled in settings - Ensure minimum signals threshold isn't too high - Verify the stock has sufficient volume for calculations ### "Too many false signals" - Increase minimum signals threshold - Use more conservative settings (see Settings section) - Focus on stocks with cleaner price action ### "Dashboard not showing" - Ensure "Show Signal Dashboard" is enabled - Check that your chart has enough space - Try a different dashboard position ### "VWAP line is missing" - VWAP requires intraday timeframes (1m, 5m, 15m, etc.) - VWAP resets daily; won't show on daily+ charts - Ensure "Show VWAP Line" is enabled ### "Stop loss seems too tight/wide" - Adjust Stop ATR Multiple in Risk Management settings - Lower multiple = tighter stop - Higher multiple = wider stop ### "Alerts not triggering" - Verify alert is set to the correct indicator - Check that alert hasn't expired - Ensure notification settings are configured in TradingView ## Performance Optimization If the indicator is slow: 1. Reduce the number of visual elements shown 2. Disable unused signal systems 3. Use on fewer simultaneous charts 4. Close unused browser tabs --- # Changelog ## Version 1.0 (Initial Release) - 7 core detection systems implemented - Real-time signal dashboard - Automatic risk management calculations - 7 alert conditions - Full visual overlay system - Comprehensive input settings ## Planned Features (Future Updates) - Scanner integration for multi-stock screening - Machine learning signal weighting - Backtesting statistics panel - Volume profile analysis - Level 2 data integration (if available) - Custom timeframe VWAP options --- # Support & Feedback ## Reporting Issues When reporting issues, please include: 1. TradingView username 2. Stock symbol and timeframe 3. Screenshot of the issue 4. Your indicator settings 5. Steps to reproduce ## Feature Requests We welcome suggestions for improving PSSP. Consider: - What specific pattern are you trying to catch? - How would this help your trading? - Any reference examples? --- # Disclaimer **IMPORTANT: This indicator is for educational and informational purposes only.** - Past performance does not guarantee future results - Short selling carries unlimited risk potential - Always use proper position sizing and stop losses - Paper trade before using real capital - The creator assumes no liability for trading losses - Consult a financial advisor before trading **Trade at your own risk.** --- *Penny Stock Short Signal Pro v1.0* *Pine Script v6* *© 2025*
อินดิเคเตอร์ Pine Script®
โดย DayTradingMD1992
1
30d Rolling TWAP (Hourly)code: //@version=5 indicator("30d Rolling TWAP (Hourly)", overlay=true) // Calculation: (High + Low + Close) / 3 typicalPrice = hlc3 // 30 days * 24 hours = 720 bars length = 720 twap30 = ta.sma(typicalPrice, length) // Plotting plot(twap30, color=color.new(#2962FF, 0), title="30d Hourly TWAP", linewidth=2) // Optional: Background highlight fillColor = close > twap30 ? color.new(color.green, 90) : color.new(color.red, 90) bgcolor(fillColor)
อินดิเคเตอร์ Pine Script®
โดย atishkmistry
Market State Fear & Greed Bubble Index V1Market State Fear & Greed Bubble Index V1 📊 Comprehensive Market Sentiment Analyzer This advanced indicator measures market psychology through a multi-dimensional scoring system, combining demand/supply pressure, trend momentum, and statistical extremes to identify fear/greed cycles and trading opportunities. 🎯 Core Features Five-Factor Fear & Greed Score Weighted sentiment analysis: Demand/Supply (25%): Real-time buying/selling pressure RSI (25%): Momentum extremes KDJ (20%): Overbought/oversold detection Bollinger Band % (20%): Statistical positioning ADX Trend (10%): Trend strength confirmation Multi-Layer Market State Detection Extreme Fear/Greed: Statistical bubble identification Trend Bias: Bullish/Bearish/Neutral classification Confidence Scoring: Setup reliability assessment Reversal Alerts: Early trend change signals Visual Dashboard Top-right information panel displays: Fear & Greed Score (0-100) Market State Classification Trend Bias & Confidence Signal Quality & Alerts 📈 Key Components Fear & Greed Gauge 0-30: Extreme Fear (buying opportunities) 30-47: Fear (accumulation zones) 47-70: Neutral (consolidation) 70-90: Greed (caution zones) 90-100: Extreme Greed (selling opportunities) Deviation Zones Red Zone (±17.065): Critical reversal areas Yellow Zone (±34.135): Warning levels Blue Zone (±47.72): Statistical extremes where reversals are highly likely. These occur when asset prices are in a bubble that's about to pop. Signal Types Buy/Sell Labels: Primary entry/exit signals Scalp Signals: Short-term opportunities Bottom/Top Detectors: Extreme reversal zones Whale Indicators: Institutional activity markers 🚀 Trading Applications Extreme Fear Setups Conditions: Fear & Greed Score < 34.135 BB% < 0 or < J-inverted line RSI < 34.135 Confidence score > 68% Bullish divergence present Action: Accumulation positions, scaled entries Extreme Greed Setup Conditions: Fear & Greed Score > 68.2 BB% > 100 or > 80 with divergence RSI > 68.2 ADX showing trend exhaustion Multiple timeframe resistance Action: Profit-taking, protective stops Trend Following Bullish Conditions: Sentiment score rising from fear zones DMI+ above DMI- and rising Confidence > 75% Volume supporting moves Bearish Conditions: Sentiment declining from greed zones DMI- above DMI+ and rising Distribution patterns Multiple resistance failures ⚙️ Customization Options Adjustable Parameters: DMI Settings: DI lengths, ADX smoothing KDJ Periods: Customizable sensitivity BB% Range: Statistical band adjustments Smoothing Options: Demand/Supply filtering Alert Thresholds: Custom signal levels Visual Customization: Color schemes for different market states Line thickness and style preferences Information panel display options Alert sound/visual preferences 📊 Signal Interpretation Primary Signals: Green 'B': Strong buy opportunity Red 'S': Strong sell opportunity White 'Scalp': Short-term trade Trade Area: Accumulation/distribution zones Visual Markers: 🔥: Bullish momentum building 🐻: Bear exhaustion building 🐳: Whale/institutional activity Color-coded fills: Market state visualization Confidence Levels: ≥80%: High reliability setups 60-79%: Moderate confidence <60%: Low confidence, avoid or reduce size ⚠️ Risk Management Guidelines Critical Rules: Never trade against extreme sentiment (Extreme Fear → buy, Extreme Greed → sell) Require multiple confirmation signals Use confidence scores for position sizing Avoid When: Conflicting signals between components Low volume participation Confidence score < 50% Major news events pending Extreme volatility conditions 💡 Advanced Strategies Sentiment Cycle Trading Identify sentiment extremes Wait for confirmation reversals Enter with trend confirmation Exit at opposite sentiment extreme Use confidence scores and fear & greed scores to scale: Fear & greed scores < 30 = buy area Fear & greed score > 60 = sell area Trend Momentum Exit: At extreme greed with divergence Enter: At extreme fear with divergence 📊 Market State Classification Five Primary States: EXTREME FEAR (BB% <0, RSI <34, Score <34) FEAR (Score 34-47, bearish momentum) NEUTRAL (Score 47-70, consolidation) GREED (Score 70-90, bullish momentum) EXTREME GREED (Score >90, BB% >100) State Transitions: Fear → Neutral: Early accumulation Neutral → Greed: Trend development Greed → Extreme Greed: Distribution Extreme → Reversal: Trend change 🔍 Information Panel Guide Real-Time Metrics: FEAR & GREED: Current sentiment score Market State: Classification and bias Trend Bias: Bullish/Bearish/Neutral Confidence: Setup reliability percentage Momentum: Current directional strength Volatility: Market condition assessment Signal Quality: Trade recommendation Reversal Imminent: Early warning alerts 🌟 Unique Advantages Psychological Edge: Quantifies market emotion through multiple indicators Identifies bubbles before they pop Provides statistical confidence for each setup Combines technical extremes with sentiment analysis Offers clear visual cues for decision making Professional Features: Multi-timeframe sentiment analysis Real-time confidence scoring Comprehensive alert system Institutional activity detection Clear risk/reward visualization 📚 Educational Value This indicator teaches: Market psychology cycles Statistical extreme identification Multi-indicator confirmation Risk quantification methods Professional trade management Perfect for traders seeking to understand and profit from market sentiment cycles. Disclaimer: For educational purposes. Trading involves risk. Past performance doesn't guarantee future results.
อินดิเคเตอร์ Pine Script®
โดย capableDealer16380
Linear Regression Market State IndexStandard Deviation Market Structure Indicator A Comprehensive Multi-Timeframe Market Analysis Tool 🎯 Overview The Standard Deviation Market Structure (SDMS) indicator is a sophisticated technical analysis tool that integrates multiple proven methodologies to identify market structure, trend direction, and potential reversal zones. By combining price action, statistical analysis, and momentum indicators across multiple timeframes, SDMS provides traders with a comprehensive view of market dynamics. ✨ Key Features Multi-Timeframe Integration Primary analysis on current timeframe 1-hour statistical confirmation for support/resistance levels Order block extension across 500 future bars Comprehensive Technical Suite RSI with Deviation Analysis Dynamic Order Block Detection Gaussian Filter Channels Linear Regression with Statistical Bands Standard deviation to detect price outliers Directional Movement Index (DMI/ADX) Bollinger Band % Analysis Support/Resistance Line System Visual Clarity Color-coded signals and zones Automatic level management Clean, intuitive display 📊 Core Components Explained 1. Order Block System What Are Order Blocks? Order blocks are price zones where institutional activity has occurred, creating future support or resistance levels. SDMS automatically detects these critical zones. Detection Logic: Bullish Order Blocks: Form when price breaks above recent highs following bearish candles Bearish Order Blocks: Form when price breaks below recent lows following bullish candles Visual Identification: Green boxes with "BuOB" labels (support zones) Red boxes with "BeOB" labels (resistance zones) Each block shows its boundary price for easy reference Dynamic Management: Automatically extends 300 bars into the future Self-cleaning: removes blocks when price breaches their boundaries Real-time adjustment to changing market structure 2. Statistical Support/Resistance System How It Works: SDMS creates support and resistance lines based on statistical extremes confirmed on the 1-hour timeframe. Trigger Conditions: Support Lines (Green): Trigger when 1H Bollinger Band % crosses above 0 and bearish momentum subsides. Resistance Lines (Red): Trigger when 1H Bollinger Band % crosses below 1 and bullish momentum subsides The Science Behind BB%: BB% = (Price - Lower Band) / (Upper Band - Lower Band) BB% <= 0: Price at statistical oversold extreme; also indicated by white candles. BB% > 1: Price at statistical overbought extreme; also indicated by white candles. Line Management: Maximum of 15 active lines Oldest lines automatically removed Lines extend across chart for ongoing reference 3. Trend Analysis Suite Hull Moving Average (HMA): 55-period smoothed trend indicator Color-coded: Green = bullish, Red = bearish Visual band shows trend acceleration/deceleration Gaussian Channel: Advanced filtering of market noise Dynamic channel based on true range volatility Helps identify mean reversion opportunities Form a yellow band when price is overbought or oversold zones. Linear Regression System: Statistical price modeling Multiple standard deviation bands (up to 3SD) Regression-based candlestick visualization Candles turn white when in overbought zones. Yellow candles indicate extremely overbought zones. Blue candles indicate a bullish trend with high volume. Bearish candles are bluish-purple when volume is high and red when the volume is within normal ranges or low. 4. Momentum & Oscillator Integration RSI with Deviation Tracking: 21-period RSI with 30-period smoothing Tracks deviation from moving average based off linear regression Identifies momentum divergences Directional Movement Index: Multi-period DMI/ADX analysis Used to detect overbought and oversold zones within the indicator calculations. Combines with RSI for enhanced signals Momentum confirmation for all entries/exits 🎯 Trading Signals & Alerts Buy Signals (Yellow "Buy" Labels) Multi-Condition Confirmation Required: RSI Oversold Reversal: RSI crosses above 30 Trend Alignment: HMA showing bullish structure Momentum Confirmation: DMI alignment Statistical Support: Price at or near support zones Risk Management: Multiple confirming indicators Strong Buy Conditions: Confluence of order block support + BB% support line Multiple timeframe alignment Volume confirmation at key levels Sell Signals (Red/Yellow "Sell" Labels) Multi-Condition Confirmation Required: RSI Overbought Reversal: RSI crosses below 70 Trend Exhaustion: HMA showing bearish structure Momentum Divergence: DMI bearish alignment Statistical Resistance: Price at or near resistance zones Timeframe Confirmation: 1H BB% bearish signals Strong Sell Conditions: Confluence of order block resistance + BB% resistance line Multiple timeframe distribution Volume surge at resistance Additional Alerts RSI Divergence Signals: Triangles showing momentum shifts Extreme Price Alerts: Circles at statistical extremes Structure Breaks: Visual cues for order block violations 🎨 Visual System Guide Color Coding System Green: Bullish conditions, support zones, rising trends Red: Bearish conditions, resistance zones, falling trends Blue: Statistical channels, neutral zones Yellow: Alert conditions, extreme signals White: Transition zones, neutral signals Zone Identification Buying Pressure Zones: Green/blue tinted areas below price or white candles with white dots within the moving average center line Selling Pressure Zones: Red tinted areas above price with white dots within the moving average center line Standard Deviation Zones: Gradient colors showing statistical extremes ⚙️ Customization Options Adjustable Parameters RSI Settings: Period, oversold/overbought levels, sensitivity Order Block Detection: Lookback period, ATR multiplier, extension Statistical Settings: Gaussian filter poles, regression periods Support/Resistance: Maximum lines, BB% settings Visual Preferences: Colors, band displays, alert styles Input Groups RSI Trading Strategy Order Block Configuration Gaussian Channel Settings Linear Regression Parameters DMI/ADX Configuration Bollinger Band % Settings 📈 Practical Trading Applications For Swing Traders Identify Key Levels: Use order blocks + BB% lines for entry/exit planning Trend Confirmation: HMA + Gaussian channel for trend direction Risk Management: Standard deviation bands for stop placement Timing Entries: RSI/DMI alignment for optimal entry timing For Day Traders Intraday Levels: Order blocks provide immediate S/R for day trading Momentum Signals: Real-time RSI/DMI signals for quick moves Statistical Edges: Gaussian channel for mean reversion plays Breakout Confirmation: Order block breaks with volume For Position Traders Higher Timeframe Structure: 1H BB% lines for major levels Trend Persistence: HMA for long-term trend identification Accumulation/Distribution Zones: Order blocks show institutional activity Multi-Timeframe Alignment: Confirmation across timeframes 🔍 How to Use SDMS Effectively Step 1: Market Structure Assessment Identify active order blocks (green/red boxes) Note BB% support/resistance lines (horizontal lines) Assess HMA and moving average trend direction (color) Check Gaussian channel position (preferably outside 2SD) Step 2: Signal Confirmation Wait for multiple indicator alignment look for doji candles. Confirm with green (bullish) or red (bearish) candles Confirm with volume if available Check for confluence of levels Assess risk/reward based on nearby levels Step 3: Trade Management Enter at confirmed support/resistance Place stops beyond opposite levels Take profits at next statistical level Monitor for structure changes Step 4: Risk Management Use standard deviation bands for volatility assessment Never risk more than 1-2% per trade Adjust position size based on confluence strength Have predefined exit rules 💡 Advanced Strategies Strategy 1: Confluence Trading Setup: Order block + BB% line at same level Entry: Price tests confluence zone with RSI signal Stop: Beyond the confluence zone Target: Next statistical level Strategy 2: Breakout Trading Setup: Price approaching order block boundary Entry: Break with volume + RSI/DMI confirmation Stop: Re-entry into order block Target: Next BB% line extension Strategy 3: Mean Reversion Setup: Price at Gaussian channel extremes Entry: RSI reversal signal at channel boundary Stop: Beyond channel extreme Target: Channel midline or opposite boundary ⚠️ Important Considerations Best Market Conditions Trending Markets: Excellent performance in clear trends Breakout Scenarios: Strong identification of break levels Range Markets: Works well with defined ranges Limitations Choppy Markets: May give false signals in consolidation News Events: Fundamental shocks can override technical levels Timeframe Specific: Optimal on 15-minute to daily charts Risk Management Rules Always use stops Never rely on single signals Consider market context Adjust for volatility changes Keep position sizes consistent 🔧 Technical Specifications Maximum Lines: 500 Maximum Bars Back: 1000 Maximum Boxes: 500 Calculation Efficiency: Optimized for real-time use 🏆 Why SDMS Stands Out Unique Advantages Integrated Approach: Combines multiple methodologies into one tool Self-Adjusting: Automatically adapts to market changes Multi-Timeframe: Provides both immediate and higher timeframe context Visual Clarity: Clean, intuitive display of complex data Professional Grade: Institutional-level analysis accessible to all traders Educational Value: Learn how different indicators interact Understand market structure development See institutional order flow patterns Develop disciplined trading habits 📚 Learning Resources Recommended Study Approach Start Simple: Focus on order blocks and BB% lines first Add Complexity: Gradually incorporate other indicators Paper Trade: Practice without risk Keep Journal: Document setups and outcomes Review Regularly: Analyze both wins and losses Common Pitfalls to Avoid Overtrading: Wait for high-quality setups Ignoring Context: Consider overall market conditions Chasing Signals: Enter at planned levels, not after moves Risk Mismanagement: Always know your risk before entering Confirmation Bias: Be objective about signals 🤝 Community & Support Getting the Most from SDMS Start with Defaults: Use default settings initially Adjust Gradually: Make small changes as you understand the tool Combine with Fundamentals: Use for timing within fundamental context Stay Disciplined: Follow your trading plan consistently Continuous Improvement SDMS is designed for continuous learning. As you use the indicator, you'll develop insights into: Market microstructure Institutional trading patterns Statistical edge identification Risk management optimization Risk management is more important than signal accuracy Patience is required for high-quality setups Success Factors Discipline: Following your plan consistently Patience: Waiting for proper setups Risk Management: Protecting your capital Continuous Learning: Improving your skills over time 🌟 Final Thoughts The Standard Deviation Market Structure indicator represents a sophisticated approach to technical analysis, combining the best elements of price action, statistical analysis, and momentum indicators. While powerful, remember that no indicator guarantees success. SDMS is a tool – your skill, discipline, and risk management determine your trading results. Use SDMS as part of a comprehensive trading plan, combine it with proper risk management, and continue developing your trading skills. The markets are always teaching – stay humble, stay disciplined, and trade well. Disclaimer: This indicator is for educational purposes only. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Trading involves risk of loss. Always consult with a qualified financial professional before making investment decisions.
อินดิเคเตอร์ Pine Script®
โดย capableDealer16380
SMC + Dual UT Bot buy and sell AlertsMise a jour avec un EMA 20/50 et vwap his script is a composite indicator for TradingView (Pine Script v5) that merges Smart Money Concepts (SMC) with a Dual-instance UT Bot. It has been styled with a high-contrast "Neon Cyberpunk" theme (Cyan/Pink) and is fully compliant with the CC BY-NC-SA 4.0 license. Here is a breakdown of its two main components: 1. Smart Money Concepts (SMC) This portion, originally by LuxAlgo, is designed to identify institutional price levels and structural market shifts. It provides a detailed map of market structure rather than simple entry/exit signals. Market Structure (BOS & CHoCH): BOS (Break of Structure): Marks trend continuation (e.g., breaking a higher high in an uptrend). CHoCH (Change of Character): Marks potential trend reversals (e.g., the first time a higher low is broken in an uptrend). Order Blocks (OB): Highlights specific candles where institutional buying or selling likely occurred. These act as high-probability support/resistance zones. Neon Blue/Cyan for Bullish OBs. Neon Pink for Bearish OBs. Fair Value Gaps (FVG): Identifies imbalances (gaps) in price action where the market often returns to "fill" orders. Neon Mint for Bullish FVGs. Neon Red for Bearish FVGs. Premium/Discount Zones: Automatically plots the range equilibrium (50% level) to help you buy in "Discount" (low) and sell in "Premium" (high) areas. Liquidity (EQH/EQL): Automatically detects "Equal Highs" and "Equal Lows," which are magnets for price as they represent liquidity pools (stop losses). 2. Dual UT Bot Alerts This portion provides the actual Entry Signals. It runs two separate instances of the "UT Bot" strategy simultaneously with different sensitivity settings to filter noise. Instance 1 (Buy Only): Settings: Key Value = 4, ATR Period = 10 (Faster, more sensitive). Visual: Plots a Neon Cyan "Buy" label. Function: Looks for bullish reversals earlier to catch the start of a move. Instance 2 (Sell Only): Settings: Key Value = 7, ATR Period = 20 (Slower, smoother). Visual: Plots a Neon Pink "Sell" label. Function: Uses a wider ATR band to avoid getting shaken out of shorts too early, focusing on major downtrends. How to Use It The strength of this script is confluence. Wait for a Signal: Look for a UT Bot "Buy" or "Sell" tag. Confirm with SMC: Check if the signal aligns with SMC concepts. Example Buy: Did the UT Bot give a "Buy" signal while price was bouncing off a Bullish Order Block? Example Buy: Did price just sweep Liquidity (EQL) before the Buy signal? Example Sell: Is the "Sell" signal happening inside a Premium Zone or a Bearish Fair Value Gap? avant-hier Notes de version 1. "Pro" Badge Buy/Sell Labels The standard text signals have been replaced with modern, professional Badge Labels that provide more information at a glance. Visuals: Instead of simple text, the script now uses label.new to create high-visibility badges. BUY: A Neon Cyan badge with a Rocket icon (🚀). SELL: A Neon Pink badge with a Chart icon (📉). Price Details: Each badge displays the exact Entry Price directly on the label. Tooltips: If you hover your mouse over a Buy or Sell badge, a tooltip will appear showing the exact Take Profit (TP) and Stop Loss (SL) prices calculated for that trade. 2. Dynamic Take Profit (TP) The script now automatically calculates a profit target for every trade the moment a signal is generated. Calculation: It measures the distance between your Entry Price and the initial Stop Loss (the ATR Trailing Stop). Risk:Reward: It multiplies that distance by your chosen Risk:Reward Ratio (default is 1.5) to project a TP target. Visual Line: A Green Line is drawn on the chart at the TP level. It remains active until price hits it or the stop loss. 3. Active Trailing Stop Loss (SL) The Stop Loss is no longer static; it is now "alive" and manages the trade for you. Trailing Logic: If Use Trailing SL? is enabled (default), the SL line will automatically move up (for longs) or move down (for shorts) as the trend continues in your favor. It locks in profit by following the UT Bot's ATR trailing band. Visual Line: A Red Line is drawn at the SL level. You can see it physically step up or down on the chart as the trend progresses. 4. Real-Time Trade Simulation The script now simulates the lifecycle of a trade directly on the chart: Active State: When a trade is live, the TP and SL lines extend to the right of the current candle (bar_index + 1), showing you exactly where your exit points are in real-time. Closed State: Once the price hits either the Green TP line or the Red SL line, the script detects the "Exit." The lines stop extending and turn dotted, indicating that the trade is closed and waiting for the next signal. Summary of New Settings You will find a new group in the settings panel called "UT Bot: Trade Management": TP Risk:Reward Ratio: Adjust this to change how far the Green TP line is placed (e.g., set to 2.0 for 2x return). Use Trailing SL?: Uncheck this if you want the Red SL line to stay fixed at the initial entry risk level. avant-hier Notes de version 1. Live Strategy Performance Dashboard (Backtester) Since this is an indicator, TradingView does not automatically calculate PnL (Profit and Loss). I have built a custom Simulation Engine inside the script that tracks every UT Bot signal as if you had taken the trade. Location: Bottom Right of your chart. Win Rate: Displays the percentage of trades that hit the Take Profit target versus the Stop Loss. Trades (W/L): Shows the total number of signals generated, broken down by Wins and Losses. Net Profit (R): Calculates your theoretical profit in "R-Multiples" (Risk Units). Example: If you set your Risk:Reward to 2.0, every win adds +2R, and every loss subtracts -1R. Dynamic Colors: The Win Rate and Profit cells turn Neon Cyan if positive (>50% or >0R) and Neon Pink if negative. 2. Multi-Timeframe Trend Dashboard A new panel at the Top Right gives you an instant "Market Bias" reading so you don't have to scan the whole chart. SMC Trend: Reads the Smart Money structure (Break of Structure/Change of Character) to determine if the high-level timeframe is BULLISH or BEARISH. UT Bot Status: Displays the current active signal state: BUY (Active): You are currently in a Long trade. SELL (Active): You are currently in a Short trade. NEUTRAL: No active signal or the last trade hit TP/SL. 3. Integrated Alert System I have connected the visual lines to the alert system. You can now set a single alert on this indicator, and it will trigger for: Entry Signals: "UT Long Entry" / "UT Short Entry" Exits: "Take Profit Hit" / "Stop Loss Hit" 4. Consolidated Settings To make the script easier to manage, I organized the settings into clear groups: Dashboards: Toggle the visibility of the new panels or move the Performance Panel to a different corner. UT Bot: Trade Management: Quickly adjust your Risk:Reward Ratio (e.g., change from 1.5 to 2.0) to see how it affects your Win Rate in real-time on the dashboard. avant-hier Notes de version 1. Multi-Timeframe (MTF) Trend Scanner I have replaced the basic "Market Bias" panel with a comprehensive MTF Trend Dashboard located at the Top Right of your chart. What it tracks: It simultaneously monitors the trend direction on 5 distinct timeframes: 15 Minute 1 Hour 4 Hour Daily Weekly How it works: It runs a background calculation (using UT Bot settings Key=5, ATR=15) on these higher timeframes without you needing to switch charts. Visuals: BULLISH: Highlighted in Neon Cyan. BEARISH: Highlighted in Neon Pink. 2. Strategic Confluence (How to use it) This new dashboard transforms the script from a simple "signal generator" into a complete trading system by allowing you to filter trades based on the bigger picture. The "All-Green" Rule: If you are scalping on a 5-minute chart and you get a BUY signal, check the dashboard. If the 1H, 4H, and Daily are all Neon Cyan (Bullish), that trade has a significantly higher probability of success. Avoid Counter-Trend Trades: If your main chart says BUY, but the dashboard shows the 4H and Daily are Neon Pink (Bearish), you are trading against the major trend. You might want to skip that trade or reduce your risk size. 3. Summary of Dashboards You now have two professional-grade panels on your screen: Bottom Right (Performance): Shows the past results of the strategy on your current timeframe (Win Rate, Profit Factor). Top Right (Trend): Shows the current state of the market across all timeframes.
อินดิเคเตอร์ Pine Script®
โดย stephneguiroa
1
P/E, EPS, Price & Price-to-Sales DisplayThis indicator displays key fundamental valuation metrics for the selected stock. It shows: Earnings Per Share (EPS) Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio Calculated theoretical price based on P/E × EPS Price-to-Sales (P/S) ratio These values help traders quickly assess valuation without switching to separate financial panels. 🛠 Instructions for Use Add the indicator to your chart. Click on the three dots (⋯) next to the indicator name. Select Move to → New pane above. Minimize the indicator pane to display only the numerical values. Hide the plotted lines if you want a clean, numbers-only view. This setup allows you to monitor fundamental metrics efficiently without cluttering the price chart.
อินดิเคเตอร์ Pine Script®
โดย namovenkatashiva1
***CILGIN INDIKATOR***ÇILGIN INDICATOR – User Guide OVERVIEW ÇILGIN INDICATOR is a multi-layer trend and momentum confirmation tool designed for discretionary traders. It combines Relative RSI, EMA structure, SuperTrend logic, Momentum, and optional CCI & ADX filters into a single visual system. Purpose: Filter market noise, confirm trend strength, and highlight high-probability Buy / Sell zones. The indicator works on all symbols and all timeframes. RELATIVE RSI & MOMENTUM The indicator can work in two modes: NORMAL MODE (Formula OFF) RSI is calculated directly from the chart symbol. FORMULA MODE (Formula ON) RSI is calculated from a relative price formula: Base Symbol / Denominator 1 / Denominator 2 This allows relative strength analysis against indices, sectors, or benchmarks. RSI SIGNAL LOGIC RSI Signal Line = SMA of RSI RSI 50 Level = Trend bias reference BUY SIGNAL RSI crosses above the signal line Optional: RSI must also cross above 50 (Double Confirmation) SELL SIGNAL RSI crosses below the signal line Optional: RSI must also cross below 50 Small arrows on the chart represent RSI-based Buy and Sell signals. EMA STRUCTURE Five adaptive EMAs are plotted: EMA 1 EMA 5 EMA 21 EMA 50 EMA 100 EMA lengths automatically adapt to timeframe speed. EMA BUY LOGIC Fast EMA crosses above any slower EMA. EMA SELL LOGIC Fast EMA crosses below any slower EMA. EMAs define: Trend direction Dynamic support and resistance Momentum shifts SUPERTREND SYSTEM A custom ATR-based SuperTrend is used. Features: Optional candle wick usage Dynamic trailing stop Visual Buy / Sell labels SUPERTREND BUY Trend flips from bearish to bullish. SUPERTREND SELL Trend flips from bullish to bearish. Colored zones visualize the active trend direction. STRONG BUY & STRONG SELL SIGNALS A Strong Signal is generated only when multiple conditions agree. STRONG BUY RSI Buy Signal SuperTrend Buy Signal Optional CCI Filter confirmation Optional ADX Filter confirmation STRONG SELL RSI Sell Signal SuperTrend Sell Signal Optional CCI Filter confirmation Optional ADX Filter confirmation Strong signals are displayed as large labeled markers: “STRONG BUY” “STRONG SELL” Designed for trend-following entries, not market noise. CCI & ADX FILTERS (OPTIONAL) CCI FILTER Buy allowed only if CCI > 0 Sell allowed only if CCI < 0 ADX FILTER ADX must be above minimum level Direction confirmed using +DI and -DI These filters help avoid sideways markets and weak trends. INFORMATION PANELS PANEL A (Top Right) Daily percentage change Weekly percentage change Monthly percentage change Daily volume (millions) PANEL B (Bottom Right) Relative RSI value RSI signal value Relative momentum Market status (Bull / Bear) Provides instant market context without extra indicators. ALERTS Built-in alerts are available for: STRONG BUY STRONG SELL Suitable for automation and watchlist monitoring. BEST PRACTICES Use Formula Mode for relative strength analysis Enable CCI & ADX filters on higher timeframes Combine signals with price action and key levels Do not use as a standalone trading system DISCLAIMER This indicator is a decision-support tool and does not provide financial advice. Always manage risk and confirm signals with your own analysis.
อินดิเคเตอร์ Pine Script®
โดย metinnitem
Daily/Weekly FVG by KrisThis indicator is a Multi-Timeframe (MTF) tool designed to automatically identify and project Fair Value Gaps (Imbalances) from Daily and Weekly timeframes onto your current chart. It helps traders locate higher-timeframe Areas of Interest (POI) and liquidity voids without manually switching charts. How it works: The script utilizes `request.security` to fetch High and Low data from Daily and Weekly timeframes. It identifies a Fair Value Gap (FVG) based on the 3-candle formation logic where price moves inefficiently, leaving a gap between the wicks. - Bullish FVG: Identified when the current Daily/Weekly Low is greater than the High of the candle from 2 periods ago. - Bearish FVG: Identified when the current Daily/Weekly High is lower than the Low of the candle from 2 periods ago. The indicator draws a box extending to the right to visualize the zone, along with a dotted midline which often acts as a sensitive support/resistance level. Unique Feature: Smart Mitigation (Auto-Hide) To keep your chart clean and focused on relevant data, the script includes a "Full Fill" logic. It continuously monitors price action relative to existing FVG boxes. - If price completely crosses through a box (fully fills the gap), the indicator considers it "mitigated" and automatically hides the box and its midline (sets transparency to 100%). - This ensures you only see "fresh" or unfilled gaps that are still relevant for trading. Settings: - TF Checkboxes (Daily/Weekly FVG): Toggle the visibility of Daily or Weekly gaps independently based on your analysis needs. - Design Mode: Colored: Uses classic Green (Bullish) and Red (Bearish) colors for easy trend identification. Monochrome: Uses Gray tones for a minimalist look that reduces visual noise on the chart. Usage: Use these zones to identify potential reversal points or liquidity targets. Since these are higher-timeframe levels, they often carry more weight than intraday imbalances.
อินดิเคเตอร์ Pine Script®
โดย KRISTRADER1
5
GOLD QUANTUM MASTER🥇 GOLD QUANTUM MASTER 🥇 ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ A high-performance technical analysis suite engineered for institutional-grade precision on Gold (XAUUSD) and Bitcoin (BTCUSD). This Core Edition focuses on raw analytical power without external API overhead. 🚀 KEY FEATURES: • INSTITUTIONAL FOOTPRINT: Advanced volume-to-MA filters to identify "Big Money" participation. • HTF REVERSAL SCANNER: Specialized logic for 30m, 1H, and 4H charts to detect Pinbar and Engulfing reversals. • LIQUIDITY FLOW ANALYTICS: Detects and highlights Previous Day High (PDH) and Low (PDL) sweeps. • TREND EXHAUSTION FILTERS: Built-in RSI divergence logic to prevent entries at trend peaks or bottoms. • PREMIUM DATA LABELS: Real-time on-chart display of Signal Mode, Quality Score, and dynamic targets. • NEON VISUAL SYSTEM: High-contrast, glassmorphic layout for maximum clarity during trading sessions. BEST FOR: Technical Analysts, Manual Traders, and High-Performance Charting. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ The best work on Higher time frames, I still not tested on lower time frames, but should be also precise. Feel free to adjust the settings to your own needs. Make your own decisions when you trade, do not put all confidence into a script, it may fail also.
อินดิเคเตอร์ Pine Script®
โดย Uncle_SamFx
3
Argentina Bonds TIR - Sovereign Bond Yield Curves Indicator# Argentina Bonds TIR A comprehensive indicator that calculates the Internal Rate of Return (IRR/TIR) for Argentine sovereign bonds and projects future price curves at fixed yield levels. ## Features **Real-time TIR Calculation** - Calculates current yield based on market price and expected cashflows - Uses Newton-Raphson iterative method for precise IRR calculation - Day count convention: Actual/365 with T+1 settlement **Automatic Currency Conversion** - Works with any trading currency: ARS, USD MEP (D suffix), USD Cable (C suffix) - Automatically converts prices using AL30/AL30D/AL30C ratios - Bonares use MEP conversion, Globales use Cable conversion **Yield Curve Projections** - Projects price curves 150 bars into the future (configurable) - Fixed TIR lines at 7%, 8%, 9%, 10%, 11%, 12% (each toggleable) - Current TIR line showing price trajectory at current yield - Custom TIR line with user-defined yield value **Clear Labeling** - Labels positioned near current date for easy reading (configurable offset) - Color-coded lines for quick identification - Info panel showing bond details, prices, TIR, and exchange rates ## Supported Bonds **Bonares** (Argentina legislation, USD MEP): AE38, AL29, AL30, AL35, AL41, AN29 **Globales** (Foreign legislation, USD Cable): GD29, GD30, GD35, GD38, GD41, GD46 ## How to Use 1. Apply indicator to any supported bond symbol (e.g., BCBA:AL30D, BCBA:GD35C) 2. The indicator auto-detects bond type and currency 3. View current TIR in the info panel 4. Use projected lines to visualize price targets at different yield levels 5. Toggle individual TIR lines on/off as needed 6. Add a custom TIR line for specific yield analysis ## Settings **Display**: Show/hide current TIR line, projection bars (30-300), label offset in days **Fixed TIR Lines**: Individual toggles for 7%, 8%, 9%, 10%, 11%, 12% **Custom TIR**: Enable custom TIR line, set value (%), choose color **Colors**: Customize colors for all lines ## Info Panel Shows bond ticker, type (Bonar/Global), trading currency, current price, native price, current TIR percentage, MEP and CCL exchange rates. --- ## Español Indicador que calcula la Tasa Interna de Retorno (TIR) para bonos soberanos argentinos y proyecta curvas de precios futuros a niveles fijos de rendimiento. ### Características - Cálculo de TIR en tiempo real usando método Newton-Raphson - Conversión automática de moneda (ARS, USD MEP, USD Cable) - Líneas de TIR fijas al 7%, 8%, 9%, 10%, 11%, 12% - Línea de TIR personalizada configurable - Panel informativo con detalles del bono y tipos de cambio ### Bonos Soportados - **Bonares** (USD MEP): AE38, AL29, AL30, AL35, AL41, AN29 - **Globales** (USD Cable): GD29, GD30, GD35, GD38, GD41, GD46 --- **DISCLAIMER**: This indicator is for informational and educational purposes only. Eco Valores S.A. does NOT provide investment advice or recommendations. Consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. **AVISO LEGAL**: Este indicador es solo para fines informativos y educativos. Eco Valores S.A. NO brinda asesoramiento ni recomendaciones de inversión. Consulte con un asesor financiero calificado antes de invertir.
อินดิเคเตอร์ Pine Script®
โดย Eco Valores
ICT Levels PDH/PDL/IB/JP/WH/WL/PDCA lightweight reference-level indicator designed for ICT-style execution and prop-evaluation trading. This script plots only the core, high-signal levels used intraday: Prior Day High / Low (PDH / PDL) Initial Balance High / Low (IBH / IBL) Job Pivot (previous day pivot) Weekly High / Low PDC Right-anchored labels for quick price reference No signals, no bias — levels only
อินดิเคเตอร์ Pine Script®
โดย godzcopilot
Auction Context Engine ( Value Area, VWAP & Regime)📌 Indicator Name Auction Context Engine (Value Area, VWAP & Regime) Short name: ACE Context 🧠 Description Auction Context Engine (ACE) is a professional market context and structure indicator based on Auction Market Theory.It is designed to help traders understand where the market is positioned, not to generate trade signals. ACE focuses on: • Developing Value Area (VAH / VAL) • Developing Point of Control (POC) • Session VWAP positioning • Volatility regime expansion • Opening Range context • Failed auction / trap detection • Market bias and environment quality This indicator provides context only and is intended to be used alongside a separate execution strategy or system. 🎯 What This Indicator Is ✔ A context engine ✔ A market structure filter ✔ A bias alignment tool ✔ A regime and environment classifier ❌ What This Indicator Is NOT ✘ Not a signal generator ✘ Not a buy/sell system ✘ Not a strategy ✘ Not a profitability promise 📊 How To Use Use ACE to answer: • Is price accepting or rejecting value? • Is the market in balance or expansion? • Is VWAP supporting or opposing price? • Is this a breakout environment or a trap? • Is volatility expanding? • Is the market trending or ranging? You may then use your own execution strategy aligned with this context. 🟢 Core Components Developing Value Area • VAH / VAL dynamically update through the session • POC tracks highest traded volume area VWAP Position • Above VWAP = bullish bias • Below VWAP = bearish bias Opening Range Context • Detects breakouts or balance after session open Volatility Regime • Identifies expansion vs normal conditions Failed Auction Detection • Highlights trap conditions near value extremes Market Quality • Strong / Mixed / Weak environment classification Context Table • Clean 1-column vertical dashboard with color-coded bias 🔵 Visual Elements • Developing VAH, VAL, POC lines • Session VWAP • Small context dots when environment turns READY • Compact professional context table ⚙️ Settings • Value Area bin size • Value area percentage • Opening range duration • Regime expansion factor • Line colors and thickness • Context table ON/OFF • Context dots ON/OFF 🧩 Best Use Case This indicator is ideal for: • Intraday trading • Index futures and equities • Options context filtering • Trend / range regime identification • Professional discretionary traders ⚠️ Disclaimer This script is provided for educational and informational purposes only.It does not constitute financial or investment advice.Trading involves risk. Always use proper risk management.
อินดิเคเตอร์ Pine Script®
โดย Market_Logic_India
Global Sovereign Spread MonitorIn the summer of 2011, the yield on Italian government bonds rose dramatically while German Bund yields fell to historic lows. This divergence, measured as the BTP-Bund spread, reached nearly 550 basis points in November of that year, signaling what would become the most severe test of the European monetary union since its inception. Portfolio managers who monitored this spread had days, sometimes weeks, of advance warning before equity markets crashed. Those who ignored it suffered significant losses. The Global Sovereign Spread Monitor is built on a simple but powerful observation that has been validated repeatedly in academic literature: sovereign bond spreads contain forward-looking information about systemic risk that is not fully reflected in equity prices (Longstaff et al., 2011). When investors demand higher yields to hold peripheral government debt relative to safe-haven bonds, they are expressing a view about credit risk, liquidity conditions, and the probability of systemic stress. This information, when properly analyzed, provides actionable signals for traders across all asset classes. The Science of Sovereign Spreads The academic study of government bond yield differentials began in earnest following the creation of the European Monetary Union. Codogno, Favero and Missale (2003) published what remains one of the foundational papers in this field, examining why yields on government bonds within a currency union should differ at all. Their analysis, published in Economic Policy, identified two primary drivers: credit risk and liquidity. Countries with higher debt-to-GDP ratios and weaker fiscal positions commanded higher yields, but importantly, these spreads widened dramatically during periods of market stress even when fundamentals had not changed significantly. This observation led to a crucial insight that Favero, Pagano and von Thadden (2010) explored in depth in the Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis. They found that liquidity effects can amplify credit risk during stress periods, creating a feedback loop where rising spreads reduce liquidity, which in turn pushes spreads even higher. This dynamic explains why sovereign spreads often move in non-linear fashion, remaining stable for extended periods before suddenly widening rapidly. Longstaff, Pan, Pedersen and Singleton (2011) extended this research in their American Economic Review paper by examining the relationship between sovereign credit default swap spreads and bond spreads across multiple countries. Their key finding was that a significant portion of sovereign credit risk is driven by global factors rather than country-specific fundamentals. This means that when spreads widen in Italy, it often reflects broader risk aversion that will eventually affect other asset classes including equities and corporate bonds. The practical implication of this research is clear: sovereign spreads function as a leading indicator for systemic risk. Aizenman, Hutchison and Jinjarak (2013) confirmed this in their analysis of European sovereign debt default probabilities, finding that spread movements preceded rating downgrades and provided earlier warning signals than traditional fundamental analysis. How the Indicator Works The Global Sovereign Spread Monitor translates these academic findings into a systematic framework for monitoring credit conditions. The indicator calculates yield differentials between peripheral government bonds and German Bunds, which serve as the benchmark safe-haven asset in European markets. Italian ten-year yields minus German ten-year yields produce the BTP-Bund spread, the single most important metric for Eurozone stress. Spanish yields minus German yields produce the Bonos-Bund spread, providing a secondary confirmation signal. The transatlantic US-Bund spread captures divergence between the two major safe-haven markets. Raw spreads are converted to Z-scores, which measure how many standard deviations the current spread is from its historical average over the lookback period. This normalization is essential because absolute spread levels vary over time with interest rate cycles and structural changes in sovereign debt markets. A spread of 150 basis points might have been concerning in 2007 but entirely normal in 2023 following the European debt crisis and subsequent ECB interventions. The composite index combines these individual Z-scores using weights that reflect the relative importance of each spread for global risk assessment. Italy receives the highest weight because it represents the third-largest sovereign bond market globally and any Italian debt crisis would have systemic implications for the entire Eurozone. Spain provides confirmation of peripheral stress, while the US-Bund spread captures flight-to-quality dynamics between the two primary safe-haven markets. Regime classification transforms the continuous Z-score into discrete states that correspond to different market environments. The Stress regime indicates that spreads have widened to levels historically associated with crisis periods. The Elevated regime signals rising risk aversion that warrants increased attention. Normal conditions represent typical spread behavior, while the Calm regime may actually signal complacency and potential mean-reversion opportunities. Retail Trader Applications For individual traders without access to institutional research teams, the Global Sovereign Spread Monitor provides a window into the macro environment that typically remains opaque. The most immediate application is risk management for equity positions. Consider a trader holding a diversified portfolio of European stocks. When the composite Z-score rises above 1.0 and enters the Elevated regime, historical data suggests an increased probability of equity market drawdowns in the coming days to weeks. This does not mean the trader must immediately liquidate all positions, but it does suggest reducing position sizes, tightening stop-losses, or adding hedges such as put options or inverse ETFs. The BTP-Bund spread specifically provides actionable information for anyone trading EUR/USD or European equity indices. Research by De Grauwe and Ji (2013) demonstrated that sovereign spreads and currency movements are closely linked during stress periods. When the BTP-Bund spread widens sharply, the Euro typically weakens against the Dollar as investors question the sustainability of the monetary union. A retail forex trader can use the indicator to time entries into EUR/USD short positions or to exit long positions before spread-driven selloffs occur. The regime classification system simplifies decision-making for traders who cannot constantly monitor multiple data feeds. When the dashboard displays Stress, it is time to adopt a defensive posture regardless of what individual stock charts might suggest. When it displays Calm, the trader knows that risk appetite is elevated across institutional markets, which typically supports equity prices but also means that any negative catalyst could trigger a sharp reversal. Mean-reversion signals provide opportunities for more active traders. When spreads reach extreme levels in either direction, they tend to revert toward their historical average. A Z-score above 2.0 that begins declining suggests professional investors are starting to buy peripheral debt again, which historically precedes broader risk-on behavior. A Z-score below minus 1.0 that starts rising may indicate that complacency is ending and risk-off positioning is beginning. The key for retail traders is to use the indicator as a filter rather than a primary signal generator. If technical analysis suggests a long entry in European stocks, check the sovereign spread regime first. If spreads are elevated or rising, the technical setup becomes higher risk. If spreads are stable or compressing, the technical signal has a higher probability of success. Professional Applications Institutional investors use sovereign spread analysis in more sophisticated ways that go beyond simple risk filtering. Systematic macro funds incorporate spread data into quantitative models that generate trading signals across multiple asset classes simultaneously. Portfolio managers at large asset allocators use sovereign spreads to make strategic allocation decisions. When the composite Z-score trends higher over several weeks, they reduce exposure to peripheral European equities and bonds while increasing allocations to German Bunds, US Treasuries, and other safe-haven assets. This rotation often happens before explicit risk-off signals appear in equity markets, giving these investors a performance advantage. Fixed income specialists at banks and hedge funds use sovereign spreads for relative value trades. When the BTP-Bund spread widens to historically elevated levels but fundamentals have not deteriorated proportionally, they may go long Italian government bonds and short German Bunds, betting on mean reversion. These trades require careful risk management because spreads can widen further before reversing, but when properly sized they offer attractive risk-adjusted returns. Risk managers at financial institutions use sovereign spread monitoring as an input to Value-at-Risk models and stress testing frameworks. Elevated spreads indicate higher correlation among risk assets, which means diversification benefits are reduced precisely when they are needed most. This information feeds into position sizing decisions across the entire trading book. Currency traders at proprietary trading firms incorporate sovereign spreads into their EUR/USD and EUR/CHF models. The relationship between the BTP-Bund spread and EUR weakness is well-documented in academic literature and provides a systematic edge when combined with other factors such as interest rate differentials and positioning data. Central bank watchers use sovereign spreads to anticipate policy responses. The European Central Bank has demonstrated repeatedly that it will intervene when spreads reach levels that threaten financial stability, most notably through the Outright Monetary Transactions program announced in 2012 and the Transmission Protection Instrument introduced in 2022. Understanding spread dynamics helps investors anticipate these interventions and position accordingly. Interpreting the Dashboard The statistics panel provides real-time information that supports both quick assessments and deeper analysis. The composite Z-score is the primary metric, representing the weighted average of all spread Z-scores. Values above zero indicate spreads are wider than their historical average, while values below zero indicate compression. The magnitude matters: a reading of 0.5 suggests modestly elevated stress, while 2.0 or higher indicates conditions similar to historical crisis periods. The regime classification translates the Z-score into actionable categories. Stress should trigger immediate review of risk exposure and consideration of hedges. Elevated warrants increased vigilance and potentially reduced position sizes. Normal indicates no immediate concerns from sovereign markets. Calm suggests risk appetite may be elevated, which supports risk assets but also creates potential for sharp reversals if sentiment changes. The percentile ranking provides historical context by showing where the current Z-score falls within its distribution over the lookback period. A reading of 90 percent means spreads are wider than they have been 90 percent of the time over the past year, which is significant even if the absolute Z-score is not extreme. This metric helps identify when spreads are creeping higher before they reach official stress thresholds. Momentum indicates whether spreads are widening or compressing. Rising momentum during elevated spread conditions is particularly concerning because it suggests stress is accelerating. Falling momentum during stress suggests the worst may be past and mean reversion could be beginning. Individual spread readings allow traders to identify which component is driving the composite signal. If the BTP-Bund spread is elevated but Bonos-Bund remains normal, the stress may be Italy-specific rather than systemic. If all spreads are widening together, the signal reflects broader flight-to-quality that affects all risk assets. The bias indicator provides a simple summary for traders who need quick guidance. Risk-Off means spreads indicate defensive positioning is appropriate. Risk-On means spread conditions support risk-taking. Neutral means spreads provide no clear directional signal. Limitations and Risk Factors No indicator provides perfect signals, and sovereign spread analysis has specific limitations that users must understand. The European Central Bank has demonstrated its willingness to intervene in sovereign bond markets when spreads threaten financial stability. The Transmission Protection Instrument announced in 2022 specifically targets situations where spreads widen beyond levels justified by fundamentals. This creates a floor under peripheral bond prices and means that extremely elevated spreads may not persist as long as historical patterns would suggest. Political events can cause sudden spread movements that are impossible to anticipate. Elections, government formation crises, and policy announcements can move spreads by 50 basis points or more in a single session. The indicator will reflect these moves but cannot predict them. Liquidity conditions in sovereign bond markets can temporarily distort spread readings, particularly around quarter-end and year-end when banks adjust their balance sheets. These technical factors can cause spread widening or compression that does not reflect fundamental credit risk. The relationship between sovereign spreads and other asset classes is not constant over time. During some periods, spread movements lead equity moves by several days. During others, both markets move simultaneously. The indicator provides valuable information about credit conditions, but users should not expect mechanical relationships between spread signals and subsequent price moves in other markets. Conclusion The Global Sovereign Spread Monitor represents a systematic application of academic research on sovereign credit risk to practical trading decisions. The indicator monitors yield differentials between peripheral and safe-haven government bonds, normalizes these spreads using statistical methods, and classifies market conditions into regimes that correspond to different risk environments. For retail traders, the indicator provides risk management information that was previously available only to institutional investors with access to Bloomberg terminals and dedicated research teams. By checking the sovereign spread regime before executing trades, individual investors can avoid taking excessive risk during periods of elevated credit stress. For professional investors, the indicator offers a standardized framework for monitoring sovereign credit conditions that can be integrated into broader macro models and risk management systems. The real-time calculation of Z-scores, regime classifications, and component spreads provides the inputs needed for systematic trading strategies. The academic foundation is robust, built on peer-reviewed research published in top finance and economics journals over the past two decades. The practical applications have been validated through multiple market cycles including the European debt crisis of 2011-2012, the COVID-19 shock of 2020, and the rate normalization stress of 2022. Sovereign spreads will continue to provide valuable forward-looking information about systemic risk for as long as credit conditions vary across countries and investors respond rationally to changes in default probabilities. The Global Sovereign Spread Monitor makes this information accessible and actionable for traders at all levels of sophistication. References Aizenman, J., Hutchison, M. and Jinjarak, Y. (2013) What is the Risk of European Sovereign Debt Defaults? Fiscal Space, CDS Spreads and Market Pricing of Risk. Journal of International Money and Finance, 34, pp. 37-59. Codogno, L., Favero, C. and Missale, A. (2003) Yield Spreads on EMU Government Bonds. Economic Policy, 18(37), pp. 503-532. De Grauwe, P. and Ji, Y. (2013) Self-Fulfilling Crises in the Eurozone: An Empirical Test. Journal of International Money and Finance, 34, pp. 15-36. Favero, C., Pagano, M. and von Thadden, E.L. (2010) How Does Liquidity Affect Government Bond Yields? Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 45(1), pp. 107-134. Longstaff, F.A., Pan, J., Pedersen, L.H. and Singleton, K.J. (2011) How Sovereign Is Sovereign Credit Risk? American Economic Review, 101(6), pp. 2191-2212. Manganelli, S. and Wolswijk, G. (2009) What Drives Spreads in the Euro Area Government Bond Market? Economic Policy, 24(58), pp. 191-240. Arghyrou, M.G. and Kontonikas, A. (2012) The EMU Sovereign-Debt Crisis: Fundamentals, Expectations and Contagion. Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, 22(4), pp. 658-677.
อินดิเคเตอร์ Pine Script®
โดย EdgeTools