Hurst-Based Trend Persistence w/Poisson Prediction
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# **Hurst-Based Trend Persistence w/ Poisson Prediction**
## **Introduction**
The **Hurst-Based Trend Persistence with Poisson Prediction** is a **statistically-driven trend-following oscillator** that provides traders with **a structured approach to identifying trend strength, persistence, and potential reversals**.
This indicator combines:
- **Hurst Exponent Analysis** (to measure how persistent or mean-reverting price action is).
- **Color-Coded Trend Detection** (to highlight bullish and bearish conditions).
- **Poisson-Based Trend Reversal Probability Projection** (to anticipate when a trend is likely to end based on statistical models).
By integrating **fractal market theory (Hurst exponent)** with **Poisson probability distributions**, this indicator gives traders a **probability-weighted view of trend duration** while dynamically adapting to market volatility.
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## **Simplified Explanation (How to Read the Indicator at a Glance)**
1. **If the oscillator line is going up → The trend is strong.**
2. **If the oscillator line is going down → The trend is weakening.**
3. **If the color shifts from red to green (or vice versa), a trend shift has occurred.**
- **Strong trends can change color without weakening** (meaning a bullish or bearish move can remain powerful even as the trend shifts).
4. **A weakening trend does NOT necessarily mean a reversal is coming.**
- The trend may slow down but continue in the same direction.
5. **A strong trend does NOT guarantee it will last.**
- Even a powerful move can **suddenly reverse**, which is why the **Poisson-based background shading** helps anticipate probabilities of change.
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## **How to Use the Indicator**
### **1. Understanding the Rolling Hurst-Based Trend Oscillator (Main Line)**
The **oscillator line** is based on the **Hurst exponent (H)**, which quantifies whether price movements are:
- **Trending** (values above 0 → momentum-driven, persistent trends).
- **Mean-reverting** (values below 0 → price action is choppy, likely to revert to the mean).
- **Neutral (Random Walk)** (values around 0 → price behaves like a purely stochastic process).
#### **Interpreting the Oscillator:**
- **H > 0.5 → Persistent Trends:**
- Price moves tend to sustain in one direction for longer periods.
- Example: Strong uptrends in bull markets.
- **H < 0.5 → Mean-Reverting Behavior:**
- Price has a tendency to revert back to its mean.
- Example: Sideways markets or fading momentum.
- **H ≈ 0.5 → Random Walk:**
- No clear trend; price is unpredictable.
A **gray dashed horizontal line at 0** serves as a **baseline**, helping traders quickly assess whether the market is **favoring trends or mean reversion**.
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### **2. Color-Coded Trend Signal (Visual Confirmation of Trend Shifts)**
The oscillator **changes color** based on **price slope** over the lookback period:
- **🟢 Green → Uptrend (Price Increasing)**
- Price is rising relative to the selected lookback period.
- Suggests sustained bullish pressure.
- **🔴 Red → Downtrend (Price Decreasing)**
- Price is falling relative to the selected lookback period.
- Suggests sustained bearish pressure.
#### **How to Use This in Trading**
✔ **Stay in trends until a color change occurs.**
✔ **Use color changes as confirmation for trend reversals.**
✔ **Avoid counter-trend trades when the oscillator remains strongly colored.**
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### **3. Poisson-Based Trend Reversal Projection (Anticipating Future Shifts)**
The **shaded orange background** represents a **Poisson-based probability estimation** of when the trend is likely to reverse.
- **Darker Orange = Higher Probability of Trend Reversal**
- **Lighter Orange / No Shade = Low Probability of Immediate Reversal**
💡 **The idea behind this model:**
✔ Trends **don’t last forever**, and their duration follows **statistical patterns**.
✔ By calculating the **average historical trend duration**, the indicator predicts **how likely a trend shift is at any given time**.
✔ The **Poisson probability function** is applied to determine the **expected likelihood of a reversal as time progresses**.
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## **Mathematical Foundations of the Indicator**
This indicator is based on **two primary statistical models**:
### **1. Hurst Exponent & Trend Persistence (Fractal Market Theory)**
- The **Hurst exponent (H)** measures **autocorrelation** in price movements.
- If past trends **persist**, H will be **above 0.5** (meaning trend-following strategies are favorable).
- If past trends tend to **mean-revert**, H will be **below 0.5** (meaning reversal strategies are more effective).
- The **Rolling Hurst Oscillator** calculates this exponent over a moving window to track real-time trend conditions.
#### **Formula Breakdown (Simplified for Traders)**
The Hurst exponent (H) is derived using the **Rescaled Range (R/S) Analysis**:
\
Where:
- **R** = **Range** (difference between max cumulative deviation and min cumulative deviation).
- **S** = **Standard deviation** of price fluctuations.
- **Lookback** = The number of periods analyzed.
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### **2. Poisson-Based Trend Reversal Probability (Stochastic Process Modeling)**
The **Poisson process** is a **probabilistic model used for estimating time-based events**, applied here to **predict trend reversals based on past trend durations**.
#### **How It Works**
- The indicator **tracks trend durations** (the time between color changes).
- A **Poisson rate parameter (λ)** is computed as:
\
- The **probability of a reversal at any given time (t)** is estimated using:
\
- **As t increases (trend continues), the probability of reversal rises**.
- The indicator **shades the background based on this probability**, visually displaying the likelihood of a **trend shift**.
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## **Dynamic Adaptation to Market Conditions**
✔ **Volatility-Adjusted Trend Shifts:**
- A **custom volatility calculation** dynamically adjusts the **minimum trend duration** required before a trend shift is recognized.
- **Higher volatility → Requires longer confirmation before switching trend color.**
- **Lower volatility → Allows faster trend shifts.**
✔ **Adaptive Poisson Weighting:**
- **Recent trends are weighted more heavily** using an exponential decay function:
- **Decay Factor (0.618 by default)** prioritizes **recent intervals** while still considering historical trends.
- This ensures the model adapts to changing market conditions.
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## **Key Takeaways for Traders**
✅ **Identify Persistent Trends vs. Mean Reversion:**
- Use the oscillator line to determine whether the market favors **trend-following or counter-trend strategies**.
✅ **Visual Trend Confirmation via Color Coding:**
- **Green = Uptrend**, **Red = Downtrend**.
- Trend changes help confirm **entry and exit points**.
✅ **Anticipate Trend Reversals Using Probability Models:**
- The **Poisson projection** provides a **statistical edge** in **timing exits before trends reverse**.
✅ **Adapt to Market Volatility Automatically:**
- Dynamic **volatility scaling** ensures the indicator remains effective in **both high and low volatility environments**.
Happy trading and enjoy!
Forecasting
day of Month | xilixMonthly Marker (1D Only)
The Monthly Marker indicator automatically highlights a specific day of the month on a daily (1D) chart by drawing a vertical line. Users can select their desired day of the month and customize the line color.
Features:
✅ Marks the chosen day of each month with a vertical line.
✅ Customizable line color (set in the indicator settings).
✅ Helps traders quickly identify key monthly dates.
Note: This indicator will not work on lower timeframes (e.g., 4H, 1H) and will show an error if applied outside the 1D timeframe.
Best Use Cases: Monthly trend tracking, economic event alignment, and custom date-based analysis. 🚀
Live SessionsLive sessions plots the highs and lows of the previous for sessions.
It also marks when these are broken by price.
Default Time Frames are:
London Session = "0000-0600", "UTC-4"
New York Session = "0830-1230", "UTC-4"
Asia Session = "1800-0000", "UTC-4"
New York Close Session = "1330-1630", "UTC-4"
Useful for highlighting when price has gone through a previous session high or low and quickly seeing where liquidity still lies.
Orion Daily Bias v1What It Does
The Daily Bias Indicator identifies the daily market bias (bullish or bearish) using principles inspired by institutional trading activity. It analyses daily price action to detect imbalances caused by large market participants, providing a clear directional bias for the upcoming trading day.
Key Features
Daily Bias Signals:
Displays "Daily Bias: Bullish" (green) or "Daily Bias: Bearish" (red) in the top-right corner of your chart.
Colors daily candles to reflect the current bias (toggle on/off).
Non-Repainting:
Signals finalize only at market close and never change retroactively.
Intraday Flexibility:
Use the daily bias to align intraday strategies (e.g., 15-minute entries) with the broader trend.
Custom Alerts:
Receive alerts only when the bias changes (e.g., bullish to bearish). Alerts trigger at market close, preparing you for the next trading day.
How It Works
Market Close Analysis:
At the end of each trading day, the indicator evaluates price action and institutional-level inefficiencies to determine the next day’s bias.
Visual Guidance:
Daily candles are coloured green (bullish) or red (bearish) to reflect the confirmed bias.
A label in the top-right corner updates automatically across all timeframes.
Actionable Alerts:
Set alerts to notify you only when the bias shifts, helping you stay focused on high-probability setups.
Why Traders Use It
Simplify Decision-Making: Start each day with a clear bias, avoiding trades against institutional momentum.
Adaptable to Strategies: Works with scalping, swing trading, or position building.
Rule-Based Signals: Objective criteria finalize at market close.
Settings & Parameters
Candle Colouring: Enable/disable daily candle highlights.
Daily bias label: Turn the daily bias label on and off
Alerts: Setting an alert with this indicator will only alert you if a bias changes from bullish to bearish or vice versa.
How to Use It
Add the indicator to your chart (works on any timeframe).
Check the top-right label for the daily bias.
Set alerts to track bias changes effortlessly.
Combine with your preferred intraday strategy for entries/exits.
Important Notes
No Repainting: Signals lock in at daily close and never change.
Confirmation Tool: Pair with additional analysis (e.g., support/resistance, volume).
Time Agnostic: The daily bias applies to all intraday timeframes (1H, 15M, etc.).
Disclaimer
This tool is for educational purposes only. It is not financial advice, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Always test strategies in a risk-controlled environment.
EMADC - BoB📌 EMADC - BoB Indicator Description
🔹 Introduction
The EMADC - BoB (Exponential Moving Average & Donchian Channel - Buy or Bear) is an advanced technical indicator designed to help traders identify optimal buy and sell zones in the market. It combines the Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and the median of the Donchian Channel, two powerful indicators widely used by professional traders.
The main goal of EMADC - BoB is to provide a clear trend reading by coloring the area between the EMA and the Donchian median. This allows traders to easily visualize buying and selling opportunities based on market dynamics.
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🔹 How the Indicator Works
📌 Components of the Indicator:
• EMA (Exponential Moving Average): A reactive moving average that helps track short to medium-term trends.
• Median of the Donchian Channel (Donchian Median): Calculated as the average of the highest and lowest prices over the last X periods. It represents an equilibrium zone between supply and demand.
• Dynamic Colored Zone:
• 🟢 Green → Indicates a bullish phase → Look for buying opportunities.
• 🔴 Red → Indicates a bearish phase → Look for selling opportunities.
When the EMA is above the Donchian median, the market is in a bullish momentum, and it is preferable to focus on long positions (buys).
Conversely, when the EMA falls below the Donchian median, the market is under bearish pressure, and traders should look for short positions (sells).
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🔹 Usage and Customization
The EMADC - BoB indicator is fully customizable to adapt to different trading strategies.
📌 Available Settings:
✅ EMA and Donchian Channel Periods → Adjustable to match your trading horizon (scalping, swing trading, long-term investing).
✅ EMA, Donchian, and Fill Area Colors → For improved readability based on your chart style.
✅ Line Thickness and Fill Transparency → To optimize visibility on your chart.
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🔹 Trading Strategy
🔹 Buy Signal (Long): When the area turns green (EMA crosses above the Donchian median).
🔹 Sell Signal (Short): When the area turns red (EMA crosses below the Donchian median).
This indicator can be used on its own or combined with other technical tools such as RSI, MACD, Price Action for a more comprehensive decision-making process.
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🔹 Why Use EMADC - BoB?
✅ Quick trend identification without cluttering the chart.
✅ Dynamic approach that adapts to market fluctuations.
✅ Easy interpretation for both beginner and advanced traders.
✅ Multi-timeframe usability (scalping, swing trading, long-term).
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🚀 Add EMADC - BoB to your trading toolkit and make more informed decisions!
If you have any questions or suggestions for improvements, feel free to leave a comment. Happy trading! 📈🔥
Scalping Entry/Exit Indicator by DiGetImagine having a tool that not only spots high-probability entry signals but also visually marks them on your chart with color-coded cues and automated alerts. The Scalping Entry/Exit Indicator by DiGet does exactly that—by fusing a range of classic candlestick patterns (such as Bullish Hammers, Engulfing patterns, and Morning/Evening Stars) with dynamic risk management levels, this script empowers you to make swift and informed trading decisions. Whether you're an active trader or an algorithm enthusiast, this indicator offers both precision and clarity in identifying scalp opportunities, making your chart analysis more efficient and visually engaging.
Indicator Breakdown
Input Parameters:
The indicator accepts a customizable risk-reward ratio, an ATR period for volatility measurement, and a lookback period to scan for valid candlestick patterns.
ATR & Candle Calculations:
It computes the Average True Range (ATR) to dynamically set stop-loss and take-profit levels. Additionally, it determines the body and wick sizes of each candlestick to help identify key reversal patterns.
Pattern Detection:
Multiple bullish patterns (Hammer, Engulfing, Morning Star) and bearish patterns (Shooting Star, Engulfing, Evening Star) are detected. There’s also a simplified version of the Head & Shoulders pattern, offering further validation for reversal signals.
Signal Generation & Trade Levels:
The script consolidates the pattern signals into combined “buy” and “sell” triggers. It then calculates the respective stop-loss (SL) and take-profit (TP) levels based on the current price and ATR, providing a robust risk management framework.
Visual Aids & Alerts:
To enhance usability, the indicator changes the chart’s background color to green for buy signals and red for sell signals. It also draws labels, lines (representing SL and TP), and markers directly on the chart, along with alert conditions to notify traders of actionable signals.
This indicator is an excellent addition to your TradingView toolkit—ideal for scalpers and short-term traders seeking clarity, precision, and automated signal generation on their charts.
Enjoy trading with confidence and precision!
ALMA 20, 50, 200The ALMA (Arnaud Legoux Moving Average) crossover strategy uses two ALMA lines (fast and slow) to generate buy/sell signals, aiming to reduce lag and noise compared to traditional moving averages, and is often combined with volume filters for improved accuracy.
Here's a more detailed explanation:
What it is:
The ALMA indicator is a moving average (MA) variant designed to reduce lag and improve responsiveness while maintaining a smooth curve, using a Gaussian filter.
How it works:
ALMA calculates two moving averages, one from left to right and one from right to left, and then processes the output through a customizable formula for increased smoothness or responsiveness.
Crossover Strategy:
A common ALMA strategy involves using two ALMA lines with different lengths (fast and slow). A buy signal is generated when the fast ALMA crosses above the slow ALMA, and a sell signal when the fast ALMA crosses below the slow ALMA.
Benefits:
ALMA offers advantages like reduced lag, smoothness, and filtering capabilities, making it useful for identifying trends and potential reversals.
Potential Risks:
Like any indicator, ALMA can produce false signals, so it's crucial to combine it with other indicators and analyze price action.
Parameters:
ALMA has parameters like "Length" (number of periods), "Sigma" (filter's range, affecting responsiveness), and "Offset" (for accessing data of different candles).
Other uses:
ALMA can also be used for trend identification, dynamic support and resistance, and combined with other indicators to enhance trading strategies.
Zones Family TraderDescription in English:
This indicator is designed to automatically detect and draw support and resistance zones on your chart. It identifies key market levels based on the All-Time High (ATH) of the last 200 candles in the M15 timeframe, generating precise zones to improve your decision-making.
🔹 Features:
✅ Automatic ATH detection over the last 200 candles
✅ Semi-transparent zones for better visualization
✅ 3-hour forward projection of zones to anticipate price movements
✅ Predefined horizontal lines (12.5 and 50 points apart) for structured analysis
✅ Fixed levels once drawn to maintain chart clarity
🚀 Why use this indicator?
Removes subjectivity by displaying clear price reaction zones
Helps traders quickly identify market structure
Ideal for intraday traders and scalpers looking for precise entries
Price Levels by Market Cap (Manual)This indicator will forecast the price by marketcap. The crypto's current circulating supply should be inputted manually.
Reversal Precision Index Overview
The Reversal Precision Index (RPI) is designed to assist traders in identifying potential reversal zones and tracking market trends. This overlay indicator combines a set of dynamic price channels with a customizable trend-following band, offering a robust framework for spotting key turning points and monitoring price action. Ideal for traders seeking to enhance their decision-making process, RPI is versatile across various timeframes and asset types.
Key Features
Dynamic Price Channels: Visualizes multiple support and resistance levels based on a weighted average of price data, helping you identify areas where price reversals are likely to occur.
Trend-Following Band: Includes an adjustable band that follows price trends, providing insights into the overall market direction and potential breakout zones.
Customizable Alerts: Notifies you when price crosses key levels, allowing you to react promptly to significant market movements.
Price Labels: Displays current levels of the price channels on the chart, aiding in quick reference and analysis (optional).
Interpreting the Indicator
Reversal Zones: Look for price reactions near the channel levels, which often act as high-probability reversal points. These zones can signal potential entry or exit opportunities.
Trend Direction: The trend band provides a smoothed view of market direction. Use its position relative to price to gauge bullish or bearish momentum.
FOMC Meeting DatesFOMC Meeting Dates Indicator
This indicator visualizes Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting dates on your TradingView charts, allowing you to track market performance between monetary policy decisions. By clearly marking past and future FOMC meetings with vertical lines, this tool helps you analyze how the market reacts to Fed policy changes and identify potential trading patterns.
Key Features:
Visual Timeline: Displays all FOMC meetings from 2021 onward as vertical lines on your chart (black for past meetings, blue for future meetings)
Period Performance: Color-codes periods between FOMC meetings based on price returns (green for positive, red for negative)
Comprehensive Returns Table: Shows performance statistics for each FOMC-to-FOMC period, including the current period and historical average
Future Meeting Forecasting: Displays projected future FOMC meetings through 2027, helping with long-term planning
Customizable Appearance: Adjust colors, line width, shading transparency, and more to suit your chart setup
Market Type Setting: Special optimization for stock market trading hours vs. 24/7 markets like crypto
How to Use:
Track FOMC Impact: See at a glance how markets have historically performed between Fed meetings
Identify Patterns: Analyze if certain FOMC periods consistently show similar market behavior
Plan Around Meetings: Prepare trading strategies with awareness of upcoming Fed meetings
Compare Returns: Use the table to quantify and compare returns between different policy periods
Customization Options:
Appearance: Adjust line colors, width, and extension
Date Labels: Toggle date labels on/off for cleaner charts
Table Settings: Modify position, color, transparency, and number of rows
Shading Options: Change colors or disable period shading
Start Year: Select which year to begin showing FOMC meetings from
This indicator helps traders and investors understand market behavior around monetary policy decisions and can be a valuable addition to your technical analysis toolkit.
Renz-GPT IndicatorThe Renz-GPT Indicator is a powerful, all-in-one trading tool designed to simplify decision-making and improve trade accuracy using a combination of trend, momentum, and volume analysis.
🔍 How It Works
Trend Detection:
Uses two EMAs (Exponential Moving Averages) to identify the current market trend.
A higher timeframe EMA acts as a trend filter to align trades with the larger market trend.
Momentum Confirmation:
RSI (Relative Strength Index) confirms the momentum strength.
Only takes trades when the momentum aligns with the trend.
Volume Confirmation:
Uses On-Balance Volume (OBV) to verify if volume supports the trend direction.
Signal Calculation:
Combines trend, momentum, and volume signals to create a high-probability trade setup.
Filters out weak signals to avoid false trades.
Entry, Stop Loss & Take Profit:
Displays clear LONG and SHORT markers on the chart.
Automatically calculates and displays Stop Loss and Take Profit levels based on ATR (Average True Range).
Alerts:
Sends real-time alerts when a valid buy or sell signal occurs.
Alerts include entry price, stop loss, and take profit levels.
Recency-Weighted Market Memory w/ Quantile-Based DriftRecency-Weighted Market Memory w/ Quantile-Based Drift
This indicator combines market memory, recency-weighted drift, quantile-based volatility analysis, momentum (RoC) filtering, and historical correlation checks to generate dynamic forecasts of possible future price levels. It calculates bullish and bearish forecast lines at each horizon, reflecting how the price might behave based on historical similarities.
Trading Concepts & Mathematical Foundations Explained
1) Market Memory
Concept:
Markets tend to repeat past behaviors under similar conditions. By identifying historical market states that closely match current conditions, we predict future price movements based on what happened historically.
Calculation Steps:
We select a historical lookback window (for example, 210 bars).
Each historical bar within this window is evaluated to see if its conditions match the current market. Conditions include:
Correlation between price change and bullish/bearish volume changes (over a user-defined correlation lookback period).
Momentum (Rate of Change, RoC) measured over a separate lookback period.
Only bars closely matching current conditions (within user-defined tolerance percentages) are included.
2) Recency-Weighted Drift
Concept:
Recent market movements often influence future direction. We assign more importance to recent bars to capture the current market bias effectively.
Calculation Steps:
Consider recent price changes between opens and closes for a user-defined drift lookback (for example, last 20 bars).
Give higher weight to recent bars (the most recent bar gets the highest weight, and weights decrease progressively for older bars).
Average these weighted changes separately for upward and downward movements, then combine these averages to calculate a final drift percentage relative to the current price.
3) Correlation Filtering
Concept:
Price changes often correlate strongly with bullish or bearish volume activity. By using historical correlation comparisons, we focus only on past market states with similar volume-price dynamics.
Calculation Steps:
Compute current correlations between price changes and bullish/bearish volume over the user-defined correlation lookback.
Evaluate each historical bar to see if its correlation closely matches the current correlation (within a user-specified percentage tolerance).
Only historical bars meeting this correlation criterion are selected.
4) Momentum (RoC) Filtering
Concept:
Two market periods may exhibit similar correlation structures but differ in how fast prices move (momentum). To ensure true similarity, momentum is checked as an additional filter.
Calculation Steps:
Compute the current Rate of Change (RoC) over the specified RoC lookback.
For each candidate historical bar, calculate its historical RoC.
Only include historical bars whose RoC closely matches the current RoC (within the RoC percentage tolerance).
5) Quantile-Based Volatility and Drift Amplification
Concept:
Quantiles (such as the 95th, 50th, and 5th percentiles) help gauge if current prices are near historical extremes or the median. Quantile bands measure volatility expansions and contractions.
Calculation Steps:
Calculate the 95%, 50%, and 5% quantiles of price over the quantile lookback period.
Add and subtract multiples of the standard deviation to these quantiles, creating upper and lower bands.
Measure the bands' widths relative to the current price as volatility indicators.
Determine the active quantile (95%, 50%, or 5%) based on proximity to the current price (within a percentage tolerance).
Compute the rate of change (RoC) of the active quantile to detect directional bias.
Combine volatility and quantile RoC into a scaling factor that amplifies or dampens expected price moves.
6) Expected Value (EV) Computation & Forecast Lines
Concept:
We forecast future prices based on how similarly-conditioned historical periods performed. We average historical moves to estimate the expected future price.
Calculation Steps:
For each forecast horizon (e.g., 1 to 27 bars ahead), collect all historical price moves that passed correlation and RoC filters.
Calculate average historical moves for bullish and bearish cases separately.
Adjust these averages by applying recency-weighted drift and quantile-based scaling.
Translate adjusted percentages into absolute future price forecasts.
Draw bullish and bearish forecast lines accordingly.
Indicator Inputs & Their Roles
Correlation Tolerance (%)
Adjusts how strictly the indicator matches historical correlation. Higher tolerance includes more matches, lower tolerance selects fewer but closer matches.
Price RoC Lookback and Price RoC Tolerance (%)
Controls how momentum (speed of price moves) is matched historically. Increasing tolerance broadens historical matches.
Drift Lookback (bars)
Determines the number of recent bars influencing current drift estimation.
Quantile Lookback Period and Std Dev Multipliers
Defines quantile calculation and the size of the volatility bands.
Quantile Contact Tolerance (%)
Sets how close the current price must be to a quantile for it to be considered "active."
Forecast Horizons
Specifies how many future bars to forecast.
Continuous Forecast Lines
Toggles between drawing continuous lines or separate horizontal segments for each forecast horizon.
Practical Trading Applications
Bullish & Bearish EV Lines
These forecast lines indicate expected price levels based on historical similarity. Green indicates positive expectations; red indicates negative.
Momentum vs. Mean Reversion
Wide quantile bands and high drift suggest momentum, while extremes may signal possible reversals.
Volatility Sensitivity
Forecasts adapt dynamically to market volatility. Broader bands increase forecasted price movements.
Filtering Non-Relevant Historical Data
By using both correlation and RoC filtering, irrelevant past periods are excluded, enhancing forecast reliability.
Multi-Timeframe Suitability
Adaptable parameters make this indicator suitable for different trading styles and timeframes.
Complementary Tool
This indicator provides probabilistic projections rather than direct buy or sell signals. Combine it with other trading signals and analyses for optimal results.
Important Considerations
While historically-informed forecasts are valuable, market behavior can evolve unpredictably. Always manage risks and use supplementary analysis.
Experiment extensively with input settings for your specific market and timeframe to optimize forecasting performance.
Summary
The Recency-Weighted Market Memory w/ Quantile-Based Drift indicator uniquely merges multiple sophisticated concepts, delivering dynamic, historically-informed price forecasts. By combining historical similarity, adaptive drift, momentum filtering, and quantile-driven volatility scaling, traders gain an insightful perspective on future price possibilities.
Feel free to experiment, explore, and enjoy this powerful addition to your trading toolkit!
V Pattern TrendDESCRIPTION:
The V Pattern Trend Indicator is designed to identify and highlight V-shaped reversal patterns in price action. It detects both bullish and bearish V formations using a five-candle structure, helping traders recognize potential trend reversal points. The indicator filters out insignificant patterns by using customizable settings based on ATR, percentage, or points, ensuring that only meaningful V patterns are displayed.
CALCULATION METHOD
The user can choose how the minimum length of a V pattern is determined. The available options are:
- ATR (Average True Range) – Filters V patterns based on ATR, making the detection adaptive to market volatility.
- Percentage (%) – Considers V patterns where the absolute price difference between the V low and V high is greater than a user-defined percentage of the V high.
- Points – Uses a fixed number of points to filter valid V patterns, making it useful for assets with consistent price ranges.
ATR SETTINGS
- ATR Length – Defines the number of periods for ATR calculation.
- ATR Multiplier – Determines the minimum V length as a multiple of ATR.
PERCENTAGE THRESHOLD
- Sets a minimum percentage difference between the V high and V low for a pattern to be considered valid.
POINTS THRESHOLD
- Defines the minimum price movement (in points) required for a V pattern to be considered significant.
PATTERN VISUALIZATION
- A bullish V pattern is plotted using two upward-sloping lines, with a filled green region to highlight the formation.
- A bearish V pattern is plotted using two downward-sloping lines, with a filled red region to indicate the reversal.
- The indicator dynamically updates and marks only the most recent valid patterns.
UNDERSTANDING V PATTERNS
A V pattern is a sharp reversal formation where price moves strongly in one direction and then rapidly reverses in the opposite direction, forming a "V" shape on the chart.
BULLISH V PATTERN
- A bullish V pattern is formed when the price makes three consecutive lower lows, followed by two consecutive higher lows.
- The pattern is confirmed when the highest high of the formation is greater than the previous highs within the structure.
- This pattern suggests a potential trend reversal from bearish to bullish.
- The lowest point of the pattern represents the V low, which acts as a support level.
bull_five_candle_v = low > low and low > low and low > low and low > low
and high > math.max(high , high , high ) and high > math.max(high , high , high )
BEARISH V PATTERN
- A bearish V pattern is detected when the price makes three consecutive higher highs, followed by two consecutive lower highs.
- The pattern is confirmed when the lowest low of the formation is lower than the previous lows within the structure.
- This pattern signals a possible trend reversal from bullish to bearish.
- The highest point of the pattern represents the V high, which acts as a resistance level.
bear_five_candle_v = high < high and high < high and high < high and high < high
and low < math.min(low , low , low ) and low < math.min(low , low , low )
HOW THIS IS UNIQUE
- Advanced Filtering Mechanism – Unlike basic reversal indicators, this tool provides customizable filtering based on ATR, percentage, or points, ensuring that only significant V patterns are displayed.
- Enhanced Visual Clarity – The indicator uses color-coded fills and structured plotting to make reversal patterns easy to recognize.
- Works Across Market Conditions – Adaptable to different market environments, filtering out weak or insignificant price fluctuations.
- Multi-Timeframe Usability – Can be applied across different timeframes and asset classes, making it useful for both intraday and swing trading.
HOW TRADERS CAN USE THIS INDICATOR
- Identify potential trend reversals early based on structured price action.
- Filter out weak or insignificant reversals to focus only on strong V formations.
- Use the V pattern’s highs and lows as key support and resistance zones for trade entries and exits.
- Combine with other indicators like moving averages, trendlines, or momentum oscillators for confirmation.
DenP Ichimoku Interpreter (DII)A simple indicator using Ishimoku as a basis, giving entry and exit signals.
Components of the Ichimoku Cloud
The Ichimoku system consists of multiple lines that help traders understand market trends, momentum, and potential reversals.
1. Tenkan-Sen (Conversion Line) - Blue
Formula: (Highest High + Lowest Low) / 2 over the last 9 periods (default).
Purpose: Measures short-term trend direction.
Interpretation:
Upward movement: Indicates bullish momentum.
Downward movement: Indicates bearish momentum.
Flat line: Indicates consolidation.
2. Kijun-Sen (Base Line) - Red
Formula: (Highest High + Lowest Low) / 2 over the last 26 periods (default).
Purpose: Represents medium-term trend.
Interpretation:
Price above Kijun-Sen: Bullish signal.
Price below Kijun-Sen: Bearish signal.
Flat Kijun-Sen: Market in consolidation.
3. Senkou Span A (Leading Span A) - Light Green
Formula: (Tenkan-Sen + Kijun-Sen) / 2, plotted 26 periods ahead.
Purpose: Forms one of the Ichimoku Cloud boundaries.
Interpretation:
If Senkou Span A is rising, the market is bullish.
If Senkou Span A is falling, the market is bearish.
4. Senkou Span B (Leading Span B) - Light Red
Formula: (Highest High + Lowest Low) / 2 over the last 52 periods, plotted 26 periods ahead.
Purpose: Forms the second boundary of the Ichimoku Cloud.
Interpretation:
If price is above the cloud, the market is in a strong uptrend.
If price is below the cloud, the market is in a strong downtrend.
If price is inside the cloud, the market is consolidating.
5. Kumo (Cloud)
The area between Senkou Span A and Senkou Span B is shaded.
Green Cloud (Span A above Span B): Bullish trend.
Red Cloud (Span B above Span A): Bearish trend.
The thickness of the cloud represents market volatility.
6. Chikou Span (Lagging Line) - Green
Formula: Current closing price plotted 26 periods back.
Purpose: Confirms trend direction.
Interpretation:
Chikou Span above price 26 periods ago: Bullish.
Chikou Span below price 26 periods ago: Bearish.
Buy and Sell Conditions
The indicator generates buy and sell signals based on Ichimoku components.
1. Kijun Cross (Medium-Term Trend)
Buy Signal: When the closing price crosses above the Kijun-Sen (red line).
Sell Signal: When the closing price crosses below the Kijun-Sen.
2. Cloud Breakout (Senkou Span Cross)
Buy Signal:
When Senkou Span A is above Senkou Span B, and the price crosses above the cloud.
Indicates a strong uptrend.
Sell Signal:
When Senkou Span B is above Senkou Span A, and the price crosses below the cloud.
Indicates a strong downtrend.
3. Chikou Span Confirmation (Momentum Confirmation)
Buy Signal:
If Chikou Span (green) crosses above past price action, it confirms a bullish trend.
Used to validate Kijun and Cloud Buy signals.
Sell Signal:
If Chikou Span crosses below past price action, it confirms a bearish trend.
Visual Signals
The indicator plots triangles on the chart to indicate buy and sell signals:
Kijun Buy Signal: Upward triangle (green).
Kijun Sell Signal: Downward triangle (red).
Cloud Buy Signal: Upward triangle (green) near the cloud.
Cloud Sell Signal: Downward triangle (red) near the cloud.
Chikou Confirmation Buy: Upward triangle (green, confirming previous signals).
Chikou Confirmation Sell: Downward triangle (red, confirming previous signals).
Additional Features
Customizable Colors & Settings: Users can adjust colors, time periods, and display settings.
On-Chart Table: Displays current trend interpretations for easy reference.
How to Use the Indicator?
Check the Cloud Position:
Price above the cloud = bullish.
Price below the cloud = bearish.
Price inside the cloud = consolidation.
Look for Kijun Crosses:
Buy when price crosses above Kijun-Sen.
Sell when price crosses below Kijun-Sen.
Confirm with Chikou Span:
If Chikou Span supports the buy/sell signal, it's more reliable.
Use Cloud Breakouts for Trend Reversals:
If price moves from below to above the cloud = strong buy.
If price moves from above to below the cloud = strong sell.
Jinx CovarianceThis script calculates and plots the covariance between the closing price of the current trading symbol and the closing prices of several major US stock market components over a user-defined lookback period.
Here's a breakdown:
* Indicator Initialization: The script starts by defining an indicator named "My script".
* Array Declaration: Nine empty arrays (a1 to a9) are created to store historical closing prices.
* Security Data Request: The script then requests historical closing price data for the following symbols using the same timeframe as the current chart: DJI (Dow Jones Industrial Average), SPX (S&P 500), AAPL (Apple), GOOG (Alphabet Inc. Class C), GOOGL (Alphabet Inc. Class A), AMZN (Amazon), META (Meta Platforms), and MSFT (Microsoft). These are stored in variables as2 through as9.
* Data Population Loop: A for loop runs for a number of bars specified by the "Lookback" input (defaulting to the last 100 bars). In each iteration:
* The closing price of the current symbol (close ) is added to the array a1.
* The closing prices of the requested securities (as2 to as9 ) are added to their respective arrays (a2 to a9).
* Covariance Calculation: After the loop, the script calculates the covariance between the array of the current symbol's closing prices (a1) and the array of closing prices for each of the other securities (a2 to a9). The results are stored in variables a1a2 to a1a9.
* Plotting Covariance: Finally, the script plots each of the calculated covariance values on the chart:
* For DJI, the covariance is plotted with the title "DJI". The color of the plot is aqua if the current covariance is greater than the covariance 10 bars ago, and red otherwise. This plot is displayed only in the data window.
* For SPX, the covariance is plotted with the title "SPX". The color is black if the current covariance is greater than the covariance 10 bars ago, and red otherwise. This plot is also displayed only in the data window.
* For AAPL, GOOG, GOOGL, AMZN, META, and MSFT, the covariance is plotted with their respective ticker symbols as titles. The color of each plot changes between a specific color (blue, fuchsia, lime, gray, maroon, navy respectively) and red, depending on whether the current covariance is higher than it was 10 bars prior.
In essence, this script visualizes how the current symbol's price movement correlates with the price movements of these major indices and stocks over the defined historical period. The color change on the plots indicates whether the covariance has increased compared to 10 bars ago, potentially suggesting a strengthening or weakening of the correlation. The display setting for DJI and SPX means their covariance values will only be visible in the data window panel at the bottom of the TradingView chart, not as lines directly overlaid on the price action.
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Pipsttocra Technical Patterns: EV HV FVG & OBPipstocrat Technical Patterns , identifies and visualizes key technical analysis patterns and structures on a TradingView chart. Here's a simple breakdown of what it does:
Fair Value Gaps (FVG):
Detects and highlights bullish and bearish Fair Value Gaps as colored boxes.
Adds centerline markers to indicate potential price levels.
Order Blocks (OB):
Identifies bullish and bearish order blocks (areas of significant buying or selling).
Displays them as colored rectangles extending to the right of the chart.
Candlestick Patterns:
Detects Engulfing Patterns (bullish and bearish) with volume confirmation.
Highlights Hammer and Inverted Hammer patterns with customizable shapes and colors.
Customization Options:
Allows users to adjust colors, sizes, and styles for all patterns and structures.
Provides options to show/hide specific patterns like FVGs, engulfing candles, hammers, etc.
Alerts:
Generates alerts for detected patterns, such as FVGs, order blocks, engulfing candles, and confluence zones (combination of FVGs and order blocks).
Management Features:
Automatically removes older or "filled" patterns (optional).
Tracks and updates patterns dynamically as new bars form.
Purpose:
This tool helps traders spot high-probability trading opportunities by identifying key market structures (like FVGs and order blocks) and candlestick patterns. It combines multiple technical analysis concepts into one comprehensive indicator for better decision-making.
Pipstocrat Market Participant AnalysisPipstocrat Market Participant Analysis (PMPA) , analyzes the behavior of different types of traders in the market: Hot Money (short-term traders), Smart Money (institutional or professional traders), and Retail Traders . It uses RSI-based calculations to measure their activity and displays the results as colored bars on a chart.
Customizable Colors: Users can change the colors for each type of trader and other visual elements like reference lines.
Reference Lines: Horizontal lines at levels 5 (Support), 10 (Neutral), and 15 (Resistance) help interpret the data.
Focus on RSI: The script simplifies analysis by focusing solely on RSI-based signals.
This tool helps traders quickly identify trends and sentiment in the market, making it easier to spot potential opportunities.
Bayesian AverageThis indicator calculates a statistically informed average of the price data using the Bayesian update rule. It overlays directly on the price chart of the trading instrument.
Inputs:
* Length: An integer input (default is 20) that determines the period over which the rolling mean and variance of the closing prices are calculated. This essentially sets the lookback window for recent price action.
* Prior Mean: A floating-point number input (default is 0.0) representing the initial guess or prior belief about the average price of the asset before observing any price data within the specified Length.
* Prior Variance: A floating-point number input (default is 1.0) that quantifies the uncertainty associated with the Prior Mean. A higher value indicates less confidence in the initial guess.
Calculations:
* Rolling Mean and Variance: The script first computes the simple moving average (rollingMean) and the sample variance (rollingVariance) of the closing price using the ta.sma and ta.variance functions over the length period.
* Bayesian Update: The indicator then applies the Bayesian update formulas to combine the prior beliefs with the information extracted from the recent price data:
* Posterior Variance: This value represents the updated uncertainty about the average price after considering the recent price fluctuations. It is calculated by combining the inverse of the Prior Variance with the precision of the data (number of observations divided by the Rolling Variance).
* Posterior Mean (Bayesian Average): This is the main output of the indicator. It represents the refined estimate of the average price, taking into account both the initial Prior Mean and the information from the Rolling Mean and Rolling Variance. The formula weights the Prior Mean and the Rolling Mean based on their respective precisions (inverse of their variances).
Plotting:
* Bayesian Average (Blue Line): The indicator plots the calculated posteriorMean, which is the Bayesian average of the price, as a blue line on the chart.
* Rolling Mean (Gray Line - Optional): For comparison, the script optionally plots the traditional simple moving average (rollingMean) as a gray line.
* Prior Mean (Dotted Red Line - Optional): A horizontal line representing the initial priorMean is optionally drawn on the chart as a red dotted line, serving as a reference.
* Posterior Variance (Orange Line - Optional): The posteriorVariance, representing the uncertainty, is also optionally plotted as an orange line.
In essence, this indicator attempts to provide a more statistically sound and potentially smoother representation of the average price by blending an initial belief with observed market data. The Prior Mean and Prior Variance allow users to incorporate their existing knowledge or assumptions into the calculation, while the Bayesian update mechanism adjusts these beliefs based on the recent price action.
Bias TableOverview
The Bias Table Indicator is a multi-timeframe analysis tool designed to provide a quick sentiment overview across multiple timeframes. It combines signals from Moving Averages (MAs) and Oscillators to determine market bias, helping traders make more informed decisions.
Key Features
✔ Multi-Timeframe Analysis (MTF) – Displays market bias across up to five timeframes.
✔ Customizable Signals – Choose whether bias is based on Moving Averages (MAs), Oscillators, or a combination of both.
✔ Visual Table Format – The indicator presents the bias as a color-coded table in the bottom-right corner of the chart for quick reference.
✔ Adjustable Colors & Display Settings – Users can customize colors for different sentiment states (Strong Buy, Buy, Neutral, Sell, Strong Sell).
How It Works
Bias Calculation: The indicator evaluates market conditions using preset values (which can be replaced with actual logic) to determine sentiment for each timeframe.
Multi-Timeframe Support: The table can display bias from hourly to monthly timeframes, giving traders a broader view of market conditions.
Customizable Signals: Users can filter the table to show bias based only on MAs, Oscillators, or a combination of both.
Interpreting the Table
📊 Timeframes: The leftmost column shows selected timeframes (e.g., 1H, 4H, 1D, 1W, 1M).
📈 Signal Columns:
MAs – Bias based on Moving Averages.
Oscillators – Bias based on momentum indicators like RSI, Stochastics, etc.
All – A combined bias based on both MAs & Oscillators.
🚦 Color-Coded Ratings:
🔵 Strong Buy – High bullish strength.
🔹 Buy – Moderate bullish sentiment.
⚪ Neutral – No clear trend.
🔸 Sell – Moderate bearish sentiment.
🔴 Strong Sell – High bearish strength.
Best Used For:
📈 Trend Confirmation: Validate signals from your primary strategy.
⏳ Multi-Timeframe Analysis: See whether short-term and long-term trends align.
⚡ Quick Sentiment Check: Get a high-level view of market conditions without analyzing multiple indicators separately.
Customization Options:
Select which timeframes to include in the table.
Choose whether to base bias on MAs, Oscillators, or both.
Adjust colors for each signal type.
Geometric Momentum Breakout with Monte CarloOverview
This experimental indicator uses geometric trendline analysis combined with momentum and Monte Carlo simulation techniques to help visualize potential breakout areas. It calculates support, resistance, and an aggregated trendline using a custom Geo library (by kaigouthro). The indicator also tracks breakout signals in a way that a new buy signal is triggered only after a sell signal (and vice versa), ensuring no repeated signals in the same direction.
Important:
This script is provided for educational purposes only. It is experimental and should not be used for live trading without proper testing and validation.
Key Features
Trendline Calculation:
Uses the Geo library to compute support and resistance trendlines based on historical high and low prices. The midpoint of these trendlines forms an aggregated trendline.
Momentum Analysis:
Computes the Rate of Change (ROC) to determine momentum. Breakout conditions are met only if the price and momentum exceed a user-defined threshold.
Monte Carlo Simulation:
Simulates future price movements to estimate the probability of bullish or bearish breakouts over a specified horizon.
Signal Tracking:
A persistent variable ensures that once a buy (or sell) signal is triggered, it won’t repeat until the opposite signal occurs.
Geometric Enhancements:
Calculates an aggregated trend angle and channel width (distance between support and resistance), and draws a perpendicular “breakout zone” line.
Table Display:
A built-in table displays key metrics including:
Bullish probability
Bearish probability
Aggregated trend angle (in degrees)
Channel width
Alerts:
Configurable alerts notify when a new buy or sell breakout signal occurs.
Inputs
Resistance Lookback & Support Lookback:
Number of bars to look back for determining resistance and support points.
Momentum Length & Threshold:
Period for ROC calculation and the minimum percentage change required for a breakout confirmation.
Monte Carlo Simulation Parameters:
Simulation Horizon: Number of future bars to simulate.
Simulation Iterations: Number of simulation runs.
Table Position & Text Size:
Customize where the table is displayed on the chart and the size of the text.
How to Use
Add the Script to Your Chart:
Copy the code into the Pine Script editor on TradingView and add it to your chart.
Adjust Settings:
Customize the inputs (e.g., lookback periods, momentum threshold, simulation parameters) to fit your analysis or educational requirements.
Interpret Signals:
A buy signal is plotted as a green triangle below the bar when conditions are met and the state transitions from neutral or sell.
A sell signal is plotted as a red triangle above the bar when conditions are met and the state transitions from neutral or buy.
Alerts are triggered only on the bar where a new signal is generated.
Examine the Table:
The table displays key metrics (breakout probabilities, aggregated trend angle, and channel width) to help evaluate current market conditions.
Disclaimer
This indicator is experimental and provided for educational purposes only. It is not intended as a trading signal or financial advice. Use this script at your own risk, and always perform your own research and testing before using any experimental tools in live trading.
Credit
This indicator uses the Geo library by kaigouthro. Special thanks to Cryptonerds and @Hazzantazzan for their contributions and insights.
ATR Price FrameATR Price Frame
ATR Price Frame is a versatile and customizable TradingView indicator that uses the Average True Range (ATR) to define a dynamic price frame for effective risk management and position sizing.
Risk Management:
This indicator automatically calculates the number of units (shares or contracts) you can trade based on a user-defined maximum risk. By comparing the current price to ATR-based levels, it determines the risk per unit—applying a tailored formula for stocks and futures—so you can maintain proper risk control on every trade.
Informative Labeling:
An optional label is displayed at the far right of your chart, providing clear, concise information about your calculated unit count and, if enabled, the total risk in dollars (formatted like “3 : $45.00”). With configurable text size and horizontal offset, the label is designed to integrate seamlessly into your chart setup.
Unified Line Appearance:
The indicator draws two horizontal lines—one above and one below the current price—to create the price frame. These lines use a unified appearance with settings for length, width, style, and an optional horizontal offset, ensuring a clean and consistent visual representation of market volatility.
ATR Price Frame automatically determines whether the instrument is a stock or a futures contract, applying the appropriate risk calculations. This makes it an essential tool for traders looking to integrate volatility-based risk management into their strategies.
Market Sentiment Indicator with Adjustable Metric Smoothing
Market Sentiment Indicator for BTCUSDT: How It Works
This indicator analyzes market sentiment for BTCUSDT by combining data from various financial metrics like the VIX, DXY, SPX, GOLD, USOIL, US10Y, and BTC itself. It processes this data to assign scores that reflect bearish, bullish, or neutral conditions, ultimately providing a sentiment value. Here’s the step-by-step process:
1. Input Parameters
VIX Thresholds: Define levels (e.g., high, moderate, low) to identify risk-off (bearish) or risk-on (bullish) market conditions.
Change Thresholds: Set limits for "large" and "small" percentage changes in metrics like DXY (Dollar Index), SPX (S&P 500), and BTC, as well as other assets.
2. Data Fetching
Collect closing prices for:
VIX (volatility index)
DXY (U.S. Dollar Index)
SPX (S&P 500)
GOLD (gold price)
USOIL (crude oil price)
US10Y (10-year Treasury yield)
BTC (from the BTCUSDT chart)
These are typically retrieved using a function like request.security in a trading platform.
3. Smoothed Data
Apply Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) to the closing prices of each metric to smooth out noise. The smoothing length (e.g., 10-day, 20-day) is customizable.
Calculate:
Smoothed percentage changes for DXY, SPX, BTC, GOLD, and USOIL.
Absolute change for US10Y (since it’s a yield, not a price).
4. Step Scores Calculation
The indicator assigns scores based on specific market conditions:
Step 1: Strong Risk-Off (Bearish)
High VIX, strongly rising DXY, strongly falling SPX and BTC.
Step 2: Moderate Risk-Off (Bearish)
Moderately high VIX, moderately rising DXY, moderately falling SPX and BTC.
Step 3: Neutral
VIX near neutral, small changes in DXY, SPX, and BTC.
Step 4: Moderate Risk-On (Bullish)
Moderately low VIX, moderately falling DXY, moderately rising SPX and BTC.
Step 5: Strong Risk-On (Bullish)
Low VIX, strongly falling DXY, strongly rising SPX and BTC.
Step 6: Inflation Concern
Rising GOLD, USOIL, US10Y, and falling DXY.
Step 7: Deflation Concern
Falling GOLD, USOIL, US10Y, and rising DXY.
5. Composite Scores
Bearish Composite: Sum of Step 1 (strong risk-off) and Step 2 (moderate risk-off) scores.
Bullish Composite: Sum of Step 4 (moderate risk-on) and Step 5 (strong risk-on) scores.
6. Sentiment Calculation
Compute a weighted average of all step scores:
Weights: -3 (Step 1), -2 (Step 2), 0 (Step 3), 2 (Step 4), 3 (Step 5), 1 (Step 6), -1 (Step 7).
This produces a sentiment score ranging from negative (bearish) to positive (bullish).
If the total score is zero, sentiment is set to zero to avoid issues.
7. Visualization
Bearish Composite: Plotted in red.
Bullish Composite: Plotted in green.
Sentiment: Plotted in blue.
Why It’s Useful
This indicator gives you a comprehensive view of market sentiment by blending traditional financial metrics (like VIX and SPX) with BTC-specific data. The use of EMAs and customizable thresholds makes it adaptable to different timeframes and market conditions, helping you gauge whether the market is leaning bearish, bullish, or neutral.
The Investment Clock Orbital GraphThe Investment Clock Orbital Graph is an advanced visualization tool designed to help traders and investors track economic cycles using a dynamic scatter plot of GDP growth vs. CPI inflation rates.
This indicator is a fusion of two powerful TradingView indicators:
LuxAlgo ’s Relative Strength Scatter Plot – A robust scatter plot for tracking relative strength.
The Investment Clock Indicator – A cycle-based approach to market rotation. This indicator contains more information regarding The Investment Clock.
By combining these approaches, the Investment Clock Orbital Graph enables traders to visualize economic momentum and inflationary trends in a unique, orbital-style scatter plot.
Key Features & Improvements
Orbital Graph Representation – Displays GDP growth and CPI inflation as a dynamic, evolving scatter plot, showing how the economy moves through different phases.
Quadrant-Based Market Regimes – Identifies four key economic phases:
1)🔥 Overheating (High Growth, High Inflation)
2)📉 Stagflation (Low Growth, High Inflation)
3)🤒 Recovery (High Growth, Low Inflation)
4)🎈 Reflation (Low Growth, Low Inflation)
Data-Driven Analysis – Utilizes FRED (Federal Reserve Economic Data) for accurate real-world GDP & CPI data.
Trailing Path of Economic Evolution – Tracks historical economic cycles over time to show momentum and cyclical movements.
Customizable Parameters – Set sustainable GDP growth and inflation thresholds, adjust trail length, and fine-tune scatter plot resolution.
Auto-Labeled Quadrants & Revised Accurate Market Guidance – Each quadrant includes newly updated tooltips and annotations (like ETF suggestions) to help traders make informed decisions.
Live Macro Forecasting Tool – Helps traders anticipate future market conditions, rate hikes/cuts, and sector rotations.
How to Use for Trading Decisions
The Investment Clock Orbital Graph helps traders and macro investors by identifying market phases and providing insights into asset class performance during different economic conditions.
📌 Step 1: Identify the Current Quadrant
Locate the most recent point on the orbital graph to see if the economy is in Overheating, Stagflation, Recovery, or Reflation.
📌 Step 2: Forecast Market Trends
The trajectory of the points can predict upcoming economic shifts:
Overheating → Stagflation ➡️ Expect economic slowdowns, bearish stock markets.
Stagflation → Reflation ➡️ Interest rate cuts likely, bonds and defensive stocks perform well.
Reflation → Recovery ➡️ Risk-on rally, technology and cyclicals perform best.
Recovery → Overheating ➡️ Commodities surge, inflation rises, and central banks intervene.
📌 Step 3: Align Trading & Investing Strategies
🔥 Overheating – Favor commodities & energy (Oil, Industrial Stocks, Materials).
📉 Stagflation – Favor defensive assets (Cash, Utilities, Healthcare).
🤒 Recovery – Favor growth stocks (Technology, Consumer Discretionary).
🎈 Reflation – Favor bonds, value stocks, and financials.
📌 Step 4: Monitor Trends Over Time
The indicator visualizes economic movement over multiple months, allowing traders to confirm long-term trends vs. short-term noise.
The Investment Clock Orbital Graph is an essential macro trading tool, providing a real-time visualization of economic conditions. By tracking GDP growth vs. CPI inflation, traders and investors can align their portfolios with major macroeconomic shifts, predict sector rotations, and anticipate central bank policy changes.
