4-Year Cycles [jpkxyz]Overview of the Script
I wanted to write a script that encompasses the wide-spread macro fund manager investment thesis: "Crypto is simply and expression of macro." A thesis pioneered by the likes of Raoul Pal (EXPAAM) , Andreesen Horowitz (A16Z) , Joe McCann (ASYMETRIC) , Bob Loukas and many more.
Cycle Theory Background:
The 2007-2008 financial crisis transformed central bank monetary policy by introducing:
- Quantitative Easing (QE): Creating money to buy assets and inject liquidity
- Coordinated global monetary interventions
Proactive 4-year economic cycles characterised by:
- Expansionary periods (low rates, money creation)
- Followed by contraction/normalisation
Central banks now deliberately manipulate liquidity, interest rates, and asset prices to control economic cycles, using monetary policy as a precision tool rather than a blunt instrument.
Cycle Characteristics (based on historical cycles):
- A cycle has 4 seasons (Spring, Summer, Fall, Winter)
- Each season with a cycle lasts 365 days
- The Cycle Low happens towards the beginning of the Spring Season of each new cycle
- This is followed by a run up throughout the Spring and Summer Season
- The Cycle High happens towards the end of the Fall Season
- The Winter season is characterised by price corrections until establishing a new floor in the Spring of the next cycle
Key Functionalities
1. Cycle Tracking
- Divides market history into 4-year cycles (Spring, Summer, Fall, Winter)
- Starts tracking cycles from 2011 (first cycle after the 2007 crisis cycle)
- Identifies and marks cycle boundaries
2. Visualization
- Colors background based on current cycle season
- Draws lines connecting:
- Cycle highs and lows
- Inter-cycle price movements
- Adds labels showing:
- Percentage gains/losses between cycles
- Number of days between significant points
3. Customization Options
- Allows users to customize:
- Colors for each season
- Line and label colors
- Label size
- Background opacity
Detailed Mechanism
Cycle Identification
- Uses a modulo calculation to determine the current season in the 4-year cycle
- Preset boundary years include 2015, 2019, 2023, 2027
- Automatically tracks and marks cycle transitions
Price Analysis
- Tracks highest and lowest prices within each cycle
- Calculates percentage changes:
- Intra-cycle (low to high)
- Inter-cycle (previous high to current high/low)
Visualization Techniques
- Background color changes based on current cycle season
- Dashed and solid lines connect significant price points
- Labels provide quantitative insights about price movements
Unique Aspects
1. Predictive Cycle Framework: Provides a structured way to view market movements beyond traditional technical analysis
2. Seasonal Color Coding: Intuitive visual representation of market cycle stages
3. Comprehensive Price Tracking: Captures both intra-cycle and inter-cycle price dynamics
4. Highly Customizable: Users can adjust visual parameters to suit their preferences
Potential Use Cases
- Technical analysis for long-term investors
- Identifying market cycle patterns
- Understanding historical price movement rhythms
- Educational tool for market cycle theory
Limitations/Considerations
- Based on a predefined 4-year cycle model (Liquidity Cycles)
- Historic Cycle Structures are not an indication for future performance
- May not perfectly represent all market behavior
- Requires visual interpretation
This script is particularly interesting for investors who believe in cyclical market theories and want a visual, data-driven representation of market stages.
Cycleanalysis
[TheMandalor] Invert or Mirror Chart SUPPORT RESSISTANTThis is a new idea to find supports and resistant’s for any charts.
What is the concept of this indicator:
1. It is used close and inverted it on chart
2. When the real chart and the inverted chart is crossing together several times, this point will be important on this concept that means the price will care about this point again and again.
3. When you draw a horizontal line as support and resistance check it with this indicator too, if your support and resistance is touched with inverted chart, it will be more important than normal support/ resistance.
4. This indicator has plot candle too, it means you can compare regular chart with the inverted one at same time if you need.
Here is the steps:
1. When you add the indicator to your chart it will add your ticker as inverted.
2. Change your chart type to line chart.
3. Fix your scale in both sides left and right (the indicator's side is on the left).
4. Now you must have two type of line charts, one is yours (The blue one) and one is plotted with this indicator (The purple one).
5. Draw a horizontal line where these two lines have more crossing at the middle of chart, this line will be a powerful line later.
6. Find other more crossed points and draw horizontal line for them too.
7. Now you can see these indicator's support and resistant’s, now you can remove the indicator and watch how the price will touch, reverse, or stay on your new type of support and resistant’s lines.
PS: I have added candle plotting too if you need it.
Fetch cycles
This script tracks cycles in the market, specifically aiming to identify the cycle low and visually represent the cycle on the chart. It begins by initializing a cycle that spans 55 days (configurable) and incorporates a deviation margin for approximation.
The script increments the day count from a defined start date (December 15, 2018) and looks for potential cycle lows after a specified number of days (50). Once a low is detected, using a comparison of the current price against the low from 4 days prior (configurable), the day count resets, and the script begins a new cycle.
The cycle low is visually marked with a triangle below the bar where the low is confirmed. Dots are plotted on the chart to indicate the days leading up to the cycle low, with one set of dots appearing 5 days before the low and another set plotted closer to the cycle end.
Additionally, the script tracks the days since the last cycle ended, and the start of the first cycle is marked with a blue triangle. This provides a clear visual indicator of the current cycle's progression and approximations of when the next low may occur.
Bitcoin Logarithmic Growth Curve 2024The Bitcoin logarithmic growth curve is a concept used to analyze Bitcoin's price movements over time. The idea is based on the observation that Bitcoin's price tends to grow exponentially, particularly during bull markets. It attempts to give a long-term perspective on the Bitcoin price movements.
The curve includes an upper and lower band. These bands often represent zones where Bitcoin's price is overextended (upper band) or undervalued (lower band) relative to its historical growth trajectory. When the price touches or exceeds the upper band, it may indicate a speculative bubble, while prices near the lower band may suggest a buying opportunity.
Unlike most Bitcoin growth curve indicators, this one includes a logarithmic growth curve optimized using the latest 2024 price data, making it, in our view, superior to previous models. Additionally, it features statistical confidence intervals derived from linear regression, compatible across all timeframes, and extrapolates the data far into the future. Finally, this model allows users the flexibility to manually adjust the function parameters to suit their preferences.
The Bitcoin logarithmic growth curve has the following function:
y = 10^(a * log10(x) - b)
In the context of this formula, the y value represents the Bitcoin price, while the x value corresponds to the time, specifically indicated by the weekly bar number on the chart.
How is it made (You can skip this section if you’re not a fan of math):
To optimize the fit of this function and determine the optimal values of a and b, the previous weekly cycle peak values were analyzed. The corresponding x and y values were recorded as follows:
113, 18.55
240, 1004.42
451, 19128.27
655, 65502.47
The same process was applied to the bear market low values:
103, 2.48
267, 211.03
471, 3192.87
676, 16255.15
Next, these values were converted to their linear form by applying the base-10 logarithm. This transformation allows the function to be expressed in a linear state: y = a * x − b. This step is essential for enabling linear regression on these values.
For the cycle peak (x,y) values:
2.053, 1.268
2.380, 3.002
2.654, 4.282
2.816, 4.816
And for the bear market low (x,y) values:
2.013, 0.394
2.427, 2.324
2.673, 3.504
2.830, 4.211
Next, linear regression was performed on both these datasets. (Numerous tools are available online for linear regression calculations, making manual computations unnecessary).
Linear regression is a method used to find a straight line that best represents the relationship between two variables. It looks at how changes in one variable affect another and tries to predict values based on that relationship.
The goal is to minimize the differences between the actual data points and the points predicted by the line. Essentially, it aims to optimize for the highest R-Square value.
Below are the results:
It is important to note that both the slope (a-value) and the y-intercept (b-value) have associated standard errors. These standard errors can be used to calculate confidence intervals by multiplying them by the t-values (two degrees of freedom) from the linear regression.
These t-values can be found in a t-distribution table. For the top cycle confidence intervals, we used t10% (0.133), t25% (0.323), and t33% (0.414). For the bottom cycle confidence intervals, the t-values used were t10% (0.133), t25% (0.323), t33% (0.414), t50% (0.765), and t67% (1.063).
The final bull cycle function is:
y = 10^(4.058 ± 0.133 * log10(x) – 6.44 ± 0.324)
The final bear cycle function is:
y = 10^(4.684 ± 0.025 * log10(x) – -9.034 ± 0.063)
The main Criticisms of growth curve models:
The Bitcoin logarithmic growth curve model faces several general criticisms that we’d like to highlight briefly. The most significant, in our view, is its heavy reliance on past price data, which may not accurately forecast future trends. For instance, previous growth curve models from 2020 on TradingView were overly optimistic in predicting the last cycle’s peak.
This is why we aimed to present our process for deriving the final functions in a transparent, step-by-step scientific manner, including statistical confidence intervals. It's important to note that the bull cycle function is less reliable than the bear cycle function, as the top band is significantly wider than the bottom band.
Even so, we still believe that the Bitcoin logarithmic growth curve presented in this script is overly optimistic since it goes parly against the concept of diminishing returns which we discussed in this post:
This is why we also propose alternative parameter settings that align more closely with the theory of diminishing returns.
Our recommendations:
Drawing on the concept of diminishing returns, we propose alternative settings for this model that we believe provide a more realistic forecast aligned with this theory. The adjusted parameters apply only to the top band: a-value: 3.637 ± 0.2343 and b-parameter: -5.369 ± 0.6264. However, please note that these values are highly subjective, and you should be aware of the model's limitations.
Conservative bull cycle model:
y = 10^(3.637 ± 0.2343 * log10(x) - 5.369 ± 0.6264)
Adaptive Trend [StabTrading]The Adaptive Trend is a versatile tool designed to help traders stay in trades longer by adapting to real-time market conditions. Based on the Exponential Moving Average (EMA) trend, this indicator automatically adjusts its values according to the flow of money, making it a fully automated and responsive trend-following tool. Traders can use this adaptive trend to maintain positions longer and identify optimal entry and exit points before the trend fully reverses.
💡 Features
EMA-Based Trend - The Adaptive Trend Indicator is grounded in the EMA, providing a reliable foundation for tracking market trends.
Adaptive Values - The indicator’s values change dynamically based on money flow, allowing it to adjust to market conditions automatically.
Designed for Longer Trades - This tool is specifically designed to keep traders in trades for extended periods, maximizing potential profits.
Automated Algorithm - The fully automated nature of this indicator ensures that it adapts without manual intervention, making it user-friendly and efficient.
Pre-Trend Flip Signals - Traders can utilize this indicator to spot entry and exit points before a trend reversal, offering a strategic advantage in trade timing.
📈 How to Use the Adaptive Trend Indicator
The Adaptive Trend Indicator is designed to help traders identify potential entry and exit points by observing the relationship between price and the trend line. Generally, the price should follow the trend line's momentum. However, when the price deviates from the trend line, this indicates a divergence in momentum, signalling a potential trading opportunity.
Monitor the Trend Line - Pay attention to the color and flatness of the trend line. A blue trend line indicates bullish momentum, while a yellow trend line signals bearish momentum. When the trend line starts to flatten, it suggests that the current momentum is weakening. This is the time to watch for price deviations from the trend line as potential trade signals.
🛠️ Usage/Practice
As the downward trend begins to lose momentum, the trend line flattens and shows early signs of money flow moving up. This flattening indicates a potential shift in market sentiment, suggesting that a reversal may be on the horizon.
The trend line changes to blue, indicating a bullish shift in momentum. Since the price is close to the trend line, this serves as a strong confirmation to enter a long trade. The proximity to the trend line offers a favourable risk-to-reward ratio.
The trend line begins to level out, signalling a potential slowdown in momentum. Notice how the price starts to deviate from the trend line. As price rises above the trend line, this presents an opportunity to take partial profits or initiate a covered sell position.
The price briefly dips below the blue trend line, and the trend itself remains flat, indicating the bullish trend’s resilience. As the trend line stays blue, this suggests that the upward momentum remains intact, and the dip may be temporary, offering another potential entry point.
Despite the trend line flattening, the price continues to respect the trend, suggesting that the uptrend has not exhausted itself. This continuation implies that the bullish trend is still likely to persist.
The trend line flips, signalling a clear end to the previous upward trend. This flip is a strong indication that the bullish momentum has been fully exhausted, and a reversal may be in progress. Notice how the price has respected the trend line as it flips.
The trend line has shifted to yellow, signalling downward price action. As the trend begins to flatten and shows signs of moving upward again, traders should wait for the price to cross above the trend line. This crossing could indicate a safer entry point for a sell trade, as the market may still be in a bearish phase.
The price drops sharply below the trend line, but the trend itself remains relatively stable, suggesting that the downward momentum may not be as strong as the price action suggests. This discrepancy signals an opportune moment to take profits and potentially enter a buy position.
The price is not aligning with the trend line, suggesting the market may be trending sideways. The trend currently shows bullish momentum, but it lacks strong upward acceleration, and the price is significantly above the trend line. This weakening momentum indicates a potential area to consider a sell trade. Similar to point 8, the lack of acceleration and the distance from the trend line suggest that the upward movement may be losing strength.
While the trend remains in a downward (yellow) phase, it begins to rise without flipping to blue. This suggests that upward momentum is weak. As the price significantly deviates above the trend line, traders might consider entering a new sell trade, as the upward movement within a downward trend could indicate a temporary correction rather than a full reversal.
🔶 Conclusion
The Adaptive Trend allows traders to maintain their positions longer while providing strategic entry and exit points before trends fully reverse. As part of a comprehensive trading system, this indicator is particularly valuable for those looking to capitalize on subtle shifts in market momentum. By following its guidelines and signals, traders can better align their strategies with market dynamics.
Atlantean Bitcoin Weekly Market Condition - Top/Bottom BTC Overview:
The "Atlantean Bitcoin Weekly Market Condition Detector - Top/Bottom BTC" is a specialized TradingView indicator designed to identify significant turning points in the Bitcoin market on a weekly basis. By analyzing long-term and short-term moving averages across two distinct resolutions, this indicator provides traders with valuable insights into potential market bottoms and tops, as well as the initiation of bull markets.
Key Features:
Market Bottom Detection: The script uses a combination of a simple moving average (SMA) and an exponential moving average (EMA) calculated over long and short periods to identify potential market bottoms. When these conditions are met, the script signals a "Market Bottom" label on the chart, indicating a possible buying opportunity.
Bull Market Start Indicator: When the short-term EMA crosses above the long-term SMA, it signals the beginning of a bull market. This is marked by a "Bull Market Start" label on the chart, helping traders to prepare for potential market upswings.
Market Top Detection: The script identifies potential market tops by analyzing the crossunder of long and short-term moving averages. A "Market Top" label is plotted, suggesting a potential selling point.
Customizable Moving Averages Display: Users can choose to display the moving averages used for detecting market tops and bottoms, providing additional insights into market conditions.
How It Works: The indicator operates by monitoring the interactions between the specified moving averages:
Market Bottom: Detected when the long-term SMA (adjusted by a factor of 0.745) crosses over the short-term EMA.
Bull Market Start: Detected when the short-term EMA crosses above the long-term SMA.
Market Top: Detected when the long-term SMA (adjusted by a factor of 2) crosses under the short-term SMA.
These conditions are highlighted on the chart, allowing traders to visualize significant market events and make informed decisions.
Intended Use: This indicator is best used on weekly Bitcoin charts. It’s designed to provide long-term market insights rather than short-term trading signals. Traders can use this tool to identify strategic entry and exit points during major market cycles. The optional display of moving averages can further enhance understanding of market dynamics.
Originality and Utility: Unlike many other indicators, this script not only highlights traditional market tops and bottoms but also identifies the aggressive start of bull markets, offering a comprehensive view of market conditions. The unique combination of adjusted moving averages makes this script a valuable tool for long-term Bitcoin traders.
Disclaimer: The signals provided by this indicator are based on historical data and mathematical calculations. They do not guarantee future market performance. Traders should use this tool as part of a broader trading strategy and consider other factors before making trading decisions. Not financial advice.
Happy Trading!
By Atlantean
Ehlers Band-Pass FilterHeyo,
This indicator is an original translation from Ehlers' book "Cycle Analytics for Traders Advanced".
First, I describe the indicator as usual and later you can find a very insightful quote of the book.
Key Features
Signal Line: Represents the output of the band-pass filter, highlighting the dominant cycle in the data.
Trigger Line: A leading indicator derived from the signal line, providing early signals for potential market reversals.
Dominant Cycle: Measures the dominant cycle period by counting the number of bars between zero crossings of the band-pass filter output.
Calculation:
The band-pass filter is implemented using a combination of high-pass and low-pass filters.
The filter's parameters, such as period and bandwidth, can be adjusted to tune the filter to specific market cycles.
The signal line is normalized using an Automatic Gain Control (AGC) to provide consistent amplitude regardless of price swings.
The trigger line is derived by applying a high-pass filter to the signal line, creating a leading
waveform.
Usage
The indicator is effective in identifying peaks and valleys in the market data.
It works best in cyclic market conditions and may produce false signals during trending periods.
The dominant cycle measurement helps traders understand the prevailing market cycle length, aiding in better decision-making.
Quoted from the Book
Band-Pass Filters
“A little of the data narrowly passed,” said Tom broadly.
Perhaps the least appreciated and most underutilized filter in technical analysis is the band-pass filter. The band-pass filter simultaneously diminishes the amplitude at low frequencies, qualifying it as a detrender, and diminishes the amplitude at high frequencies, qualifying it as a data smoother.
It passes only those frequency components from input to output in which the trader is interested. The filtering produced by a band-pass filter is superior because the rejection in the stop bands is related to its bandwidth. The degree of rejection of undesired frequency components is called selectivity. The band-stop filter is the dual of the band-pass filter. It rejects a band of frequency components as a notch at the output and passes all other frequency components virtually unattenuated. Since the bandwidth of the deep rejection in the notch is relatively narrow and since the spectrum of market cycles is relatively broad due to systemic noise, the band-stop filter has little application in trading.
Measuring the Cycle Period
The band-pass filter can be used as a relatively simple measurement of the dominant cycle.
A cycle is complete when the waveform crosses zero two times from the last zero crossing. Therefore, each successive zero crossing of the indicator marks a half cycle period. We can establish the dominant cycle period as twice the spacing between successive zero crossings.
When we measure the dominant cycle period this way, it is best to widen the pass band of the band-pass filter to avoid distorting the measurement simply due to the selectivity of the filter. Using an input bandwidth of 0.7 produces an octave-wide pass band. For example, if the center period of the filter is 20 and the relative bandwidth is 0.7, the bandwidth is 14. That means the pass band of the filter extends from 13-bar periods to 27-bar periods.
That is, roughly an octave exists because the longest period is twice the shortest period of the pass band. It is imperative that a high-pass filter is tuned one octave below the half-bandwidth edge of the band-pass filter to ensure a nominal zero mean of the filtered output. Without a zero mean, the zero crossings can have a substantial error.
Since the measurement of the dominant cycle can vary dramatically from zero crossing to zero
crossing, the code limits the change between measurements to be no more than 25 percent.
While measuring the changing dominant cycle period via zero crossings of the band-pass waveform is easy, it is not necessarily the most accurate method.
Best regards,
simwai
Good Luck with your trading! 🙌
Central Banks Balance Sheets ROI% ChangeIntroducing the "Central Banks Balance Sheets ROI% Change" indicator, a tool designed to offer traders and analysts an understanding of global liquidity dynamics.
This indicator tracks the Return on Investment (ROI) percentage changes across major central banks' balance sheets, providing insights into shifts in global economic liquidity not tied to cumulative figures but through ROI calculations, capturing the pulse of overall economic dynamics.
Key Enhancements:
ROI Period Customization: Users can now adjust the ROI calculation period, offering flexibility to analyze short-term fluctuations or longer-term trends in central bank activities, aligning with their strategic time horizons.
Chart Offset Feature: This new functionality allows traders to shift the chart view, aiding in the alignment of data visualization with other indicators or specific analysis needs, enhancing interpretive clarity.
Central Bank Selection: With options to include or exclude data from specific central banks among the world's top 15 economies (with the exception of Mexico and the consolidation of the EU's central bank data), traders can tailor the analysis to their regional focus or diversification strategies.
US M2 Option: Recognizing the significance of the M2 money supply as a liquidity metric, this indicator offers an alternative view focusing solely on the US M2, allowing for a concentrated analysis of the US liquidity environment.
Comprehensive Coverage: The tool covers a wide array of central banks, including the Federal Reserve, People's Bank of China, European Central Bank, and more, ensuring a broad and inclusive perspective on global liquidity.
Visualization Enhancements: A histogram plot vividly distinguishes between positive and negative ROI changes, offering an intuitive grasp of liquidity expansions or contractions at a glance.
This indicator is a strategic tool designed for traders who seek to understand the undercurrents of market liquidity and its implications on global markets.
Whether you're assessing the impact of central bank policies, gauging economic health, or identifying investment opportunities, the "Central Banks Balance Sheets ROI% Change" indicator offers a critical lens through which to view the complex interplay of global liquidity factors.
AIAE: Average Investor's Allocation To EquityPeople say a bull market ends when there are no more buyers left on the market and a bear market ends when there are no more sellers. Well, this indicador shows exactly this.
It uses FRED data to compare the total value invested on stocks with the total value held by investors to find the percentage that is allocated to stocks.
The exact formula used to calculate this index was created by pseudonymous Jesse Livermore and is available for free to anyone who wishes to consult it in his blog Philosophical Economics . The only thing I'm adding here that wasn't available on Jesse's index is the color code.
This script will use Jesse's formula to find the average investor's allocation to equity at any given time. Then, it will color the SPDR (S&P 500) according to this allocation.
A high allocation to equity means we could be close to a market correction, so it will color the SPDR in red and a low allocation means we could be close to a market bottom, so it will color the SPDR in blue.
Here's the exact color parameters used:
switch
AIAE <= 23 => priceLevel := "Gift"
AIAE > 23 and AIAE <=26 => priceLevel := "Very Cheap"
AIAE > 26 and AIAE <= 29 => priceLevel := "Cheap"
AIAE > 29 and AIAE <= 32 => priceLevel := "Slightly Cheap"
AIAE > 32 and AIAE <= 37 => priceLevel := "Neutral"
AIAE > 37 and AIAE <= 40 => priceLevel := "Slightly Expensive"
AIAE > 40 and AIAE <= 43 => priceLevel := "Expensive"
AIAE > 43 and AIAE <= 46 => priceLevel := "Very Expensive"
AIAE > 46 => priceLevel := "Exuberant"
Please note that this indicador should ONLY be used on the SPDR (S&P 500). It will not produce adequate results if used on other assets.
Wosabi Time Cycle Gann v1 This indicator is an auxiliary tool for drawing the five-year and ten-year cycle, as it draws vertical lines every 12 candles and for 12 minor cycles, so that a major cycle consists of 144 candles, which is the ten-year cycle. It helps to know whether the current trend will continue for the five-year cycle and whether it will complete the ten-year cycle or not The standard cycle assumes that the trend is from a bottom or a top, if it continues for more than 24 candles to 36 candles, then corrects and does not break the bottom or top, then the trend will continue at least to complete the five-year cycle, i.e. 72 candles, and if the trend continues and the seven-year cycle closes at the 82 candle above The price of the candle of the strategic line No. 42, there is a possibility to complete the ten-year cycle (you must have experience in the standard patterns of time cycles as explained by gan).
The indicator also draws the digital gates in horizontal lines, and you have to select them manually and adjust the price difference from one currency to another from the settings.
When adding the indicator for the first time, you must specify the candle of the beginning of the trend, whether at a bottom or a top, as well as specifying the highest or lowest price that is expected to reach five digital gates, and you can modify the gates later in the settings.
You can show a horizontal line at the close of each minor cycle of 24 candles, and you can adjust the line length from the settings.
You can also show lines on the vibration plugs.
When the trend is up, the end price must be higher than the starting price, in order to draw the direction for the gates correctly, and when the trend is down, the end price must be lower than the starting price.
Important note: This indicator depends on your experience in time cycles and will not give you any buy or sell signals. It is an indicator that saves you drawing for cycles and gates and depends on your personal experience in time cycles.
هذا المؤشر اداة مساعدة لرسم دورة الخمس سنوات والعشر سنوات، فهو يرسم خطوط اعمده راسية كل 12 شمعة ولعدد 12 دورة صغرى لتتكون دورة كبرى من 144 شمعة وهي دورة العشر سنوات وهي تساعد لمعرفة هل الاتجاه الحالي سيستمر لدورة الخمس سنوات وهل سيكمل دورة العشر سنوات ام لا ، فالدورة القياسية تفترض ان الاتجاه من قاع او قمة اذا استمر لاكثر من 24 شمعة الى 36 شمعة ثم صحح ولم يكسر القاع او القمة فإن الاتجاه سيستمر على الاقل لاكمال دورة الخمس سنوات اي 72 شمعة ، واذا استمر الاتجاه واغلق دورة السبع سنوات عند الشمعة 82 فوق سعر شمعة خط الاستراتيجي رقم 42 فهنالك احتمالية لاكمال دورة العشر سنوات (يجب ان يكون ليك خبرة في الانماط القياسية للدورات الزمنية كما شرحها gan).
كذلك يقوم المؤشر برسم البوابات الرقمية في خطوط افقية وعليك تحديدها بشكل يدوي وتعديل فارق السعر من عملة لاخرى من الاعدادات .
عند اضافة المؤشر لاول مرة يجب تحديد شمعة بداية الاتجاه سواء عند قاع او قمة وكذلك تحديد السعر الاعلى او الادنى المتوقع ان تصل له خمس بوابات رقمية ويمكنك تعديل البوابات لاحقا من الاعدادات .
يمكنك اظهار خط افقي عند اغلاق كل دورة صغرى لعدد 24 شمعة ويمكنك تعديل طول الخط من الاعدادات .
يمكنك كذلك اظهار خطوط على شمعات الاهتزاز .
عندما يكون الاتجاه صاعد يجب ان يكون سعر النهاية اعلى من سعر البداية ليتم رسم الاتتجاه للبوابات بشكل صحيح وعندما يكون الاتجاه هابط يجب ان يكون سعر النهاية ادنى من سعر البداية .
ملاحظة هامة : هذا المؤشر يعتمد على خبرتك في الدورات الزمنية ولن يعطيك اي اشارات شراء او بيع فهو مؤشر يوفر عليك الرسم للدورات والبوابات ويعتمد على خبرتك الشخصية في الدورات الزمنية .
Market Time Cycle (Expo)█ Time Cycles Overview
Time cycles are a fascinating and powerful concept in the world of trading and investing. They are all about understanding and predicting the timing of market moves based on the premise that market events and price movements are not random, but instead occur in repeatable, cyclical patterns.
The Concept of Time Cycles: The foundation of time cycles lies in the belief that historical market patterns tend to repeat themselves over specific periods. These periods or cycles could be influenced by a myriad of factors like economic data releases, earnings reports, geopolitical events, or even natural human behavior. For example, some traders observe increased market activity around the start and end of a trading day, which is a form of intraday time cycle.
Understanding time cycles can provide traders with a roadmap, helping them anticipate potential trend shifts and make more informed decisions about when to buy or sell.
█ Indicator Overview
The Market Time Cycle (Expo) is designed to help traders track and analyze market cycles and generate signals for potential trading opportunities. It uses mathematical techniques to analyze market cycles and detect possible turning points. It does this by projecting the estimated cycle timeline and providing visual indications of cyclical phases through the use of color-coded lines and sine wave cycles.
Time cycles offer a compelling way to forecast market trends and time your trades better. By adding time cycles to your trading toolbox, you could potentially gain a new perspective on market movements and refine your trading strategy further. The indicator generates trading signals based on the sine wave's behavior. When the sine wave crosses certain thresholds, the indicator generates a signal suggesting a potential trading opportunity based on cycle behavior.
█ How to use
This indicator can be a valuable tool to help traders understand and predict market trends and time their trades more accurately. By visualizing the cyclic nature of markets, traders can better anticipate potential turning points and adjust their trading strategies accordingly. It helps traders to spot ideal entry and exit points based on the cyclical nature of financial markets.
█ Settings
You can customize the number of bars (NumbOfBars) that are taken into consideration for the cycle. Including a higher number of bars will provide more data, which can be helpful for analyzing long-term trends.
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Disclaimer
The information contained in my Scripts/Indicators/Ideas/Algos/Systems does not constitute financial advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities of any type. I will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from the use of or reliance on such information.
All investments involve risk, and the past performance of a security, industry, sector, market, financial product, trading strategy, backtest, or individual's trading does not guarantee future results or returns. Investors are fully responsible for any investment decisions they make. Such decisions should be based solely on an evaluation of their financial circumstances, investment objectives, risk tolerance, and liquidity needs.
My Scripts/Indicators/Ideas/Algos/Systems are only for educational purposes!
Adaptive Fisherized CMOIntroduction
Heyo, here is another no-repaint adaptive fisherized indicator.
I added Inverse Fisher Transform, Ehlers dominant cycle analysis and smoothing to the Chande Momentum Oscillator (CMO).
Usage
The CMO is a momentum oscillator which shows the usual movement of an asset.
I recommend to use it from a lower timeframe with a higher timeframe set.
Signals
(Signal mode will come soon.)
Zero Line
CMO crosses above zero line => enter long
CMO cross below zero line => ente short
Overbought/Oversold
CMO crosses above bottom band => enter long
CMO crosses under top band => enter short
MA (Maybe this signals will vary. Then, check update notes.)
CMO crosses above MA => enter long
CMO crosses below MA => enter short
Enjoy and share your experience with it!
More to read: CMO Explanationsp
SFC Smart Money Manipulation - Time, Advanced Market StructureThis indicator shows the market structure in more advanced way and different time cycles.
Markets moves in cycles and swings. The indicator will help to determine these cycles and swings by time and price. These are the two columns of the market understanding. The third one is volume/ momentum, but it will not be discussed here.
Advanced Market Structure
According to ICT and Larry Williams Market Structure is not only Highs and Lows.
They present more advanced understanding of the MS:
-Short Term Highs/ Lows
-Intermediate Term Highs/ Lows
-Long Term Highs/ Lows
Rules of how to determine the Swing Points according to Larry Williams:
"A market has made a short-term low when we have a day (or bar if you are using different time periods) that has a higher low on both sides. By the same token a short-term high will be a day (or bar) that has lower bars on both sides of it."
"A short-term high with lower short-term highs on both sides is an intermediate- term high. By the same token, a short-term low with higher short-term lows on both sides is an intermediate-term low."
"An intermediate-term high with lower intermediate-term highs on both sides of it is just naturally a long-term high by our definition, thanks to understanding market structure.
An intermediate-term low with higher intermediate-term lows on both sides of it is just naturally a long-term low by our definition, thanks to understanding market structure."
If the Highs and Lows are labeled properly there is high probability to predict the next High or Low. In this way the trader will know how the current trend is changing and what kind of retracement is coming - deep or shallow.
Timing
Market moves in time cycles.
There is a theory that the swings are equal by time and length. This is not always the case, but very very often.
Indicator time features:
- Swing Trading days - how many time market needed to form a swing. Only Long term(main) Swings are measured. This will help trader to label T-formations.
" T Formations is cyclically related for formations that can be drawn to project the time frame of likely turning points. Basically T-formations are based on the concept that the time distance between the starting low/high of the cyclical wave and its peak is likely to be subsequently repeated between that peak and the final low/high of that cycle."
- Seasonality - theoretically an asset should go up or down in particular yearly quarter. Practically the direction not always match to quarters. Thats why the indicator shows the theoretical seasonal direction and historical real direction.
Seasonal direction is automatically displayed or XAUUSD, XAGUSD, EURUSD, AUDUSD, GBPUSD. There is a ways to set the seasonality manually.
- Earnings Season - This time is very important for Stocks and Indices. Most of the time the assets are in bullish trend during the Earnings Seasons.
- Monthly separator - Shows the monthly time cycle
- Gold bullish months - There are studies on Gold market. They shows that Gold is very bullish in particular months. These are displayed.
The indicator works only on Daily Time Frame.
WaveTrend 3D█ OVERVIEW
WaveTrend 3D (WT3D) is a novel implementation of the famous WaveTrend (WT) indicator and has been completely redesigned from the ground up to address some of the inherent shortcomings associated with the traditional WT algorithm.
█ BACKGROUND
The WaveTrend (WT) indicator has become a widely popular tool for traders in recent years. WT was first ported to PineScript in 2014 by the user @LazyBear, and since then, it has ascended to become one of the Top 5 most popular scripts on TradingView.
The WT algorithm appears to have origins in a lesser-known proprietary algorithm called Trading Channel Index (TCI), created by AIQ Systems in 1986 as an integral part of their commercial software suite, TradingExpert Pro. The software’s reference manual states that “TCI identifies changes in price direction” and is “an adaptation of Donald R. Lambert’s Commodity Channel Index (CCI)”, which was introduced to the world six years earlier in 1980. Interestingly, a vestige of this early beginning can still be seen in the source code of LazyBear’s script, where the final EMA calculation is stored in an intermediate variable called “tci” in the code.
█ IMPLEMENTATION DETAILS
WaveTrend 3D is an alternative implementation of WaveTrend that directly addresses some of the known shortcomings of the indicator, including its unbounded extremes, susceptibility to whipsaw, and lack of insight into other timeframes.
In the canonical WT approach, an exponential moving average (EMA) for a given lookback window is used to assess the variability between price and two other EMAs relative to a second lookback window. Since the difference between the average price and its associated EMA is essentially unbounded, an arbitrary scaling factor of 0.015 is typically applied as a crude form of rescaling but still fails to capture 20-30% of values between the range of -100 to 100. Additionally, the trigger signal for the final EMA (i.e., TCI) crossover-based oscillator is a four-bar simple moving average (SMA), which further contributes to the net lag accumulated by the consecutive EMA calculations in the previous steps.
The core idea behind WT3D is to replace the EMA-based crossover system with modern Digital Signal Processing techniques. By assuming that price action adheres approximately to a Gaussian distribution, it is possible to sidestep the scaling nightmare associated with unbounded price differentials of the original WaveTrend method by focusing instead on the alteration of the underlying Probability Distribution Function (PDF) of the input series. Furthermore, using a signal processing filter such as a Butterworth Filter, we can eliminate the need for consecutive exponential moving averages along with the associated lag they bring.
Ideally, it is convenient to have the resulting probability distribution oscillate between the values of -1 and 1, with the zero line serving as a median. With this objective in mind, it is possible to borrow a common technique from the field of Machine Learning that uses a sigmoid-like activation function to transform our data set of interest. One such function is the hyperbolic tangent function (tanh), which is often used as an activation function in the hidden layers of neural networks due to its unique property of ensuring the values stay between -1 and 1. By taking the first-order derivative of our input series and normalizing it using the quadratic mean, the tanh function performs a high-quality redistribution of the input signal into the desired range of -1 to 1. Finally, using a dual-pole filter such as the Butterworth Filter popularized by John Ehlers, excessive market noise can be filtered out, leaving behind a crisp moving average with minimal lag.
Furthermore, WT3D expands upon the original functionality of WT by providing:
First-class support for multi-timeframe (MTF) analysis
Kernel-based regression for trend reversal confirmation
Various options for signal smoothing and transformation
A unique mode for visualizing an input series as a symmetrical, three-dimensional waveform useful for pattern identification and cycle-related analysis
█ SETTINGS
This is a summary of the settings used in the script listed in roughly the order in which they appear. By default, all default colors are from Google's TensorFlow framework and are considered to be colorblind safe.
Source: The input series. Usually, it is the close or average price, but it can be any series.
Use Mirror: Whether to display a mirror image of the source series; for visualizing the series as a 3D waveform similar to a soundwave.
Use EMA: Whether to use an exponential moving average of the input series.
EMA Length: The length of the exponential moving average.
Use COG: Whether to use the center of gravity of the input series.
COG Length: The length of the center of gravity.
Speed to Emphasize: The target speed to emphasize.
Width: The width of the emphasized line.
Display Kernel Moving Average: Whether to display the kernel moving average of the signal. Like PCA, an unsupervised Machine Learning technique whereby neighboring vectors are projected onto the Principal Component.
Display Kernel Signal: Whether to display the kernel estimator for the emphasized line. Like the Kernel MA, it can show underlying shifts in bias within a more significant trend by the colors reflected on the ribbon itself.
Show Oscillator Lines: Whether to show the oscillator lines.
Offset: The offset of the emphasized oscillator plots.
Fast Length: The length scale factor for the fast oscillator.
Fast Smoothing: The smoothing scale factor for the fast oscillator.
Normal Length: The length scale factor for the normal oscillator.
Normal Smoothing: The smoothing scale factor for the normal frequency.
Slow Length: The length scale factor for the slow oscillator.
Slow Smoothing: The smoothing scale factor for the slow frequency.
Divergence Threshold: The number of bars for the divergence to be considered significant.
Trigger Wave Percent Size: How big the current wave should be relative to the previous wave.
Background Area Transparency Factor: Transparency factor for the background area.
Foreground Area Transparency Factor: Transparency factor for the foreground area.
Background Line Transparency Factor: Transparency factor for the background line.
Foreground Line Transparency Factor: Transparency factor for the foreground line.
Custom Transparency: Transparency of the custom colors.
Total Gradient Steps: The maximum amount of steps supported for a gradient calculation is 256.
Fast Bullish Color: The color of the fast bullish line.
Normal Bullish Color: The color of the normal bullish line.
Slow Bullish Color: The color of the slow bullish line.
Fast Bearish Color: The color of the fast bearish line.
Normal Bearish Color: The color of the normal bearish line.
Slow Bearish Color: The color of the slow bearish line.
Bullish Divergence Signals: The color of the bullish divergence signals.
Bearish Divergence Signals: The color of the bearish divergence signals.
█ ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
@LazyBear - For authoring the original WaveTrend port on TradingView
@PineCoders - For the beautiful color gradient framework used in this indicator
@veryfid - For the inspiration of using mirrored signals for cycle analysis and using multiple lookback windows as proxies for other timeframes
Elliott Wave Theory [Alerts]This indicator may be one of the first to provide signals & alerts for the Elliott Wave Theory Pattern. Unfortunately, there are few, if any, indicators that are public which allow the Elliott Wave Theory to be plotted+with alerts.
Because this is experimental, I'm going to offer access to it free of charge. Send me a direct message requesting access.
Elliott Wave Theory is a complex chart pattern to learn, and even harder to master. It requires being able to identify the wave lengths of price history and using various tools to plot and assess the price structure in order to find the wave counts. Whilst there are many ways to compute the waves apart of the pattern, there is no universal method that everyone would agree upon. For this indicator, I am using the traditional method.
The different colors represent different cycle types. Using it on a higher timeframe is strongly encouraged for best results.
This version currently provides alerts for the final wave, wave 5. I WILL BE ADDING MORE TO THIS INDICATOR SHORTLY, SEE BELOW:
-Will be adding the other counts to display all the waves
-Will be adding 'correction wave' alerts
-Will be adding 'inverse' pattern alerts
-Will be improving the the labels to include their cycle type
This is not a buy & sell indicator.. This is a TOOL to help analyze the market using Elliott Wave Theory.
The indicator should be used for the following:
-Aiding with EWT analysis
-Helping find potential exit points
-Assist with learning EWT by using this as a template
-Timing trades and improving risk management
-Plotting the overall market
Market GloryV1 -Introducing the new Market Glory indicator! In this indicator you will find:
- Dynamic Trends: a beta feature that takes into account both the maximum high and lowest low values anywhere between 5 to 200 bars back to determine the respective resistance and support levels at all times, with a trailing guidance middle bar that can serve as a meter for direction and takes into account only the close values of the defined 5-200 lookback bars! ( ***Strictly based on the 1 minute timeframe. )
- Engulfing bars: a beta feature that allows you to seek out potential reversal bars, based on the dema tema clouds and the respective bar's open and close!!
- Cycle bars: a Market Sniper classic feature, enabling you to catch momentum, consolidation, and continuation via hollow candles! This is achieved by detecting whether the open and close values stem from within the dema tema cloud's boundaries!
- Levels: also a Market Sniper classic, which lets you see support and resistance levels based on previous daily, weekly, and monthly opening and closing values! Also takes into account current closing price action, which will update the levels after being broken!! Furthermore, takes into account fibonacci steps (0.236, 0.382, and 0.5) per timeframe to determine where the nearest level will draw out. **The Calibration feature enables you to look ahead for potential upcoming resistances, with maximum precision.
- EMA crossings: A legacy feature in almost any popular indicator, as a means to correspond with the dema tema cycles for better entries and exits!!
- Multi-timeframe popup labels: By hovering (or long pressing in mobile) over the support and resistance level labels, you can see each dedicated timeframe's current cycle and crossing, to assess whether the stock is following a particular direction! (based solely on real-time close value)
- Lastly...
--- Fully customizable options in coloring and values, including ready-to-go defaults with tooltips to guide you to the Glory you deserve!!!
Market SniperV1: Introducing Market Sniper indicator! In this indicator, you can take advantage of the following features:
- 3 ema lines, 2 which intersect to form gold and death crossings and an extra line that can be adjusted in value (particularly useful for the 200 ema)
- 2 out of 20 possible tickers that can be selected based on rank (one being the richest and the other being the weakest performing ticker, out of the rest)
- Dema and Tema clouds for tracking green bullish cycles and red bearish cycles
- Crossing labels with emojis for both gold and death crossings
- Gap percentage between each closing bar and the extra ema line, for guidance and turnaround
- Chart up and Chart down emojis to better keep track of trend, based on last 2 closed bars
- ... and much much more depending on what you want to see!! All fully customizable!
Market Makers MoveV1,V2, & V3: New indicator release!! In this fantastic new indicator, you can do the following:
- Specify a particular EMA crossing combination (between a fast and a slow ema line)
- Specify the timeframe (can be independent or based on current chart timeframe, by default)
- Select one of four possible potential profiles (ETFs Only, Crypto, and more!) OR input manually any of 40 possible tickers AND
- Assess whether entry for calls or puts is appropriate based on price action on realtime view between 2 tickers, one which will be the highest (strongest) trend up and the other going the lowest (weakest) trend possible, all at the same time!
This indicator is by no means financial advice!! So by all means, use according to proper assessment and risk management! There are various tooltips instilled to each field and table of the indicator, all to better guide you for better end results!
Cheers! and good luck in you!!
Market HackThis indicator is intended to only be used in any timeframe between the 1 minute and the 15 minute. If greater than 15 minute, or less than 1 minute, then the table will disappear!
Furthermore, this is a very simple table containing 4 varying emojis:
🔱- This is a gold crossing, indicative of bullish momentum.
💀 - This is a death crossing, indicative of bearish momentum.
🟩 - This represents a bullish cycle, which reinforces the currently active bullish momentum.
🟥 - This represents a bearish cycle, which supports an active bearish momentum.
In summary, 🔱🟩 is perfect confirmation for CALL entry, but even better when at minimum the 1m and 3m care confirmed. Similarly, 💀🟥 confirms an upcoming entry for a PUT. Bear in mind, this indicator is not meant for any financial advice and is only meant to present market direction, or at least a few specific tickers' direction with the market.
Tesla Coil MLThis is a re-implementation of @veryfid's wonderful Tesla Coil indicator to leverage basic Machine Learning Algorithms to help classify coil crossovers. The original Tesla Coil indicator requires extensive training and practice for the user to develop adequate intuition to interpret coil crossovers. The goal for this version is to help the user understand the underlying logic of the Tesla Coil indicator and provide a more intuitive way to interpret the indicator. The signals should be interpreted as suggestions rather than as a hard-coded set of rules.
NOTE: Please do NOT trade off the signals blindly. Always try to use your own intuition for understanding the coils and check for confluence with other indicators before initiating a trade.
Ehlers Cycle Period [CC]The Cycle Period was created by John Ehlers and this is yet another version that shows how to calculate the current cycle period which is the approximate amount of days between a current peak or valley and the next peak or valley. I would not recommend this for trading since it is more for informational use only but I would try experimenting with this output to be used with another indicator as an input length. I have included strong buy and sell signals in addition to normal ones so strong signals are darker in color and normal signals are lighter in color.
Let me know if there are any other scripts you would like to see me publish!
Ehlers Mesa Spectrum Dominant Cycle [CC]The Mesa Spectrum Dominant Cycle was created by John Ehlers and this is the foundation for many indicators he created that would later follow. This is his updated version of his original Mesa algorithm and I do not recommend this indicator as a stand alone for trading. This is more of an informational indicator that will tell you the current dominant cycle period which is the approximate period between peaks and valleys in the underlying data. I have color coded buy signals just in case with both strong and normal signals. Darker colors are strong and lighter colors are normal. Buy when the line is green and sell when it is red.
Let me know if there are any other indicators you would like to see me publish!
Financial Astrology Mercury-Ceres Longitude AngleMercury-Ceres angle indicator represent the geocentric longitude angular distance between Mercury and Ceres with labels on the angles that indicate the astrological aspects used by financial astrologers to determine the energy trigger points. In financial astrology, Mercury rules trading, market transactions, commerce and negotiation. Ceres rules growing, nutrition, food, farming and prosperity.
For any Mercury aspects indicator we recommend to use 4H resolution to locate the exact aspect culmination, this is because Mercury moves at an average geocentric speed of 1.6 degrees per day.
Due to the limited UTF (Unicode Transformation Format) support of classical astrology aspects symbols, we needed to use a custom subset to represent the aspects:
⊚ = 0 degrees angle (conjuction)
⧌ = 30 degrees angle (semi-sextile)
⧆ = 45 degrees angle (semi-square)
⨺ = 60 degrees angle (sextile)
⧄ = 90 degrees angle (square)
⨹ = 120 degrees angle (trine)
⧇ = 135 degrees angle (sesqui-square)
◭ = 150 degrees angle (quincunx or inconjunct)
⚇ = 180 degrees angle (opposition)
Note: The Mercury-Ceres longitude angle indicator is based on an ephemeris array that covers years 2010 to 2030, prior or after this years the data is not available, this daily ephemeris are based on UTC time so in order to align properly with the price bars times you should set UTC as your chart timezone.
