Larry Williams COT Analysis Enhanced [tradeviZion]Larry Williams COT Analysis Enhanced - Complete Description
📖 Introduction
Welcome to the Larry Williams COT Analysis Enhanced indicator. This comprehensive description explains every setting, feature, and capability of this advanced Commitments of Traders (COT) analysis tool.
This indicator implements Larry Williams' professional COT analysis methodology with enhanced features including statistical validation, combination analysis, and adaptive signal generation.
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🎯 Quick Start
Add the indicator to your chart
The script will automatically detect your symbol's CFTC code and asset type
Review the main COT analysis table (displayed by default)
Customize settings based on your trading style
Review the Trading Edge & Signals section for signal information
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⚙️ Settings Groups Overview
The indicator is organized into 9 logical groups of settings:
1. Core COT Settings - Data source and report configuration
2. Analysis Parameters - Calculation methods and lookback periods
3. Signal Generation - Buy/sell signals and trend weighting
4. Plot Display Settings - Visual customization of chart lines
5. Smoothing Settings - Data smoothing options
6. COT Proximity Index Settings - Price-based proxy indicator configuration
7. Common Table Settings - Shared table appearance
8. Main Table Display Settings - Main analysis table customization
9. Historical Comparison Settings - Historical data table configuration
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📋 Group 1: Core COT Settings
COT Report Type
Options: Legacy | Disaggregated | Financial
What it is: Selects the type of COT report data to analyze.
Legacy - Traditional COT report format. Recommended for most users. Uses "Commercial Positions" and "Noncommercial Positions" metrics. Shows Commercial, Non-Commercial, and Small Speculator positions in the classic format.
Commercials: "Commercial Positions"
Speculators: "Noncommercial Positions"
Small Specs: "Nonreportable Positions"
Disaggregated - Separates managed money from other speculators. Uses different metrics than Legacy format.
Commercials: "Producer Merchant Positions"
Speculators: "Managed Money Positions"
Small Specs: "Nonreportable Positions"
Important: When using Disaggregated report type, the table will still show "Non-Comm" as the label, but the data displayed is actually " Managed Money Positions " (hedge funds and CTAs). The underlying data changes based on your report type selection, even though the table label remains "Non-Comm" for consistency.
Where you'll see this data:
📊 Current Positions section - The "Non-Comm" row shows Managed Money long, short, and net positions
📊 Open Interest Analysis section - "Non-Comm" net changes reflect Managed Money position changes
📈 Analysis section - "Non-Comm" percentile and LW Index values are calculated from Managed Money positions
Chart plots - The blue "Non-Commercial" line shows Managed Money net positions
Useful when you want to analyze hedge funds (Managed Money) separately from other large speculators. The "Commercial" row will show " Producer Merchant Positions " instead of general "Commercial Positions".
Financial - Designed for financial instruments (currencies, bonds, stock indices). Uses financial-specific metrics.
Commercials: "Dealer Positions"
Speculators: "Leveraged Funds Positions"
Small Specs: "Nonreportable Positions"
Important: When using Financial report type, the table will still show "Commercial" and "Non-Comm" as labels, but the data displayed is actually " Dealer Positions " (commercials) and " Leveraged Funds Positions " (speculators). The underlying data changes based on your report type selection.
Where you'll see this data:
📊 Current Positions section - "Commercial" row shows Dealer long/short/net, "Non-Comm" row shows Leveraged Funds positions
📊 Open Interest Analysis section - Net changes reflect Dealer and Leveraged Funds position changes
📈 Analysis section - Percentile and LW Index values are calculated from Dealer and Leveraged Funds positions
Chart plots - Lines show Dealer and Leveraged Funds net positions
Use this for currency futures, bond futures, and stock index futures.
Trading Use: Most traders use Legacy as it provides the most comprehensive view and works with all asset types. Switch to Disaggregated if you want to analyze managed money positions separately. Use Financial specifically for financial instruments (currencies, bonds, stock indices).
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Include Options Data
Default: Off (false)
What it is: Toggles whether to include options positions in addition to futures positions.
Trading Use: Larry Williams observed no significant difference in COT analysis when including options data. Keep this disabled unless you specifically need options data. Most traders leave it off for cleaner analysis.
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Auto-detect CFTC Code
Default: On (true)
What it is: Automatically finds the correct CFTC code for your symbol.
Trading Use: Keep this enabled unless you need a specific CFTC code. The script automatically detects codes for:
- Currency futures: CME:6E1! , CME:6B1! , CME:6J1!
- Stock index futures: CME_MINI:ES1! , CBOT_MINI:YM1! , CME_MINI:NQ1!
- Commodities: NYMEX:CL1! , COMEX:GC1! , CBOT:ZC1!
- And many more
Only disable if you're analyzing a symbol that requires a specific CFTC code not in the auto-detection database.
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Manual CFTC Code
Default: Empty
What it is: Enter a specific CFTC code manually (e.g. for E-mini S&P 500). "13874+"
Trading Use: Only used when Auto-detect CFTC Code is disabled. Most users never need this setting.
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📊 Group 2: Analysis Parameters
Display Mode
Options: COT Report | COT Index | COT Proximity Index
What it is: Controls what data is displayed on the chart and in the table.
COT Report - Shows raw position data (Long, Short, Net positions) plus analysis. Best for detailed analysis. Displays Commercial, Non-Commercial, Small Speculator, and Open Interest lines.
COT Index - Shows index values based on your selected Analysis Method (Percentile or LW Index). Best for quick sentiment analysis. Displays index lines for Commercial, Non-Commercial, Small Speculator, and Open Interest. Percentile can exceed 0-100% for extremes, LW Index stays 0-100%.
Percentile can exceed 0-100% for extremes
LW Index stays 0-100%
COT Proximity Index - Shows a price-based proxy indicator. Useful when COT data is delayed or unavailable. Calculates sentiment based on price action patterns.
Trading Use:
- Use COT Report for comprehensive analysis
- Use COT Index when you want to focus on extreme sentiment levels
- Use COT Proximity Index as a backup when COT data is delayed or unavailable.
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Analysis Method
Options: Percentile | LW Index
What it is: Selects the calculation method for position rankings.
Percentile - Professional approach. Excludes current bar from range calculation. Can show extremes (>100% or <0%) when today's value breaks historical range. More sensitive to recent extremes.
LW Index - Original Larry Williams method. Includes current bar in range, always 0-100%. Traditional approach.
Trading Use:
Percentile - Better for catching new extremes and recent market shifts
LW Index - Better for traditional Larry Williams analysis
Most traders prefer Percentile for its ability to show when positions break historical ranges.
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Lookback Mode
Options: Auto | Manual
What it is: Controls how the historical lookback period is determined.
Auto - Automatically sets lookback period based on detected asset type
Manual - Choose your own lookback period
Trading Use: Use Auto unless you have a specific reason to customize. The script automatically sets optimal periods:
Currencies: 26 weeks
Metals: 13 weeks
Grains: 26 weeks
Stocks/Indices: 13 weeks
Bonds: 52 weeks
Energies: 13 weeks
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Manual Lookback Period
Options: 1 Month | 3 Months | 6 Months | 1 Year | 3 Years | Asset-specific presets | Manual
What it is: How far back to look for historical comparison. Only used when Lookback Mode is set to Manual .
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Manual Lookback Weeks
Default: 18 weeks | Range: 1-500
What it is: Exact number of weeks to look back. Only used when Manual Lookback Period is set to Manual .
Trading Use: Set a custom period if you want precise control. 18 weeks = approximately one quarter (3 months).
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🎯 Group 3: Signal Generation
Show Signal Arrows
Default: Off (false)
What it is: Displays buy/sell arrows on the chart when extreme positions are detected.
Trading Use: Enable to get visual alerts for signals. Signals use strict multi-factor conditions requiring:
- Commercial extreme positioning
- Speculator positioning alignment
- Open Interest confirmation
- Trend consistency
- And more...
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Show Background Colors
Default: Off (false)
What it is: Colors the chart background during extreme market conditions.
Trading Use: Enable for visual market state awareness:
- Strong signals = Darker background colors
- Moderate signals = Lighter background colors
- Green background = Bullish extreme
- Red background = Bearish extreme
Useful for quick visual assessment of market conditions.
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Use Price Trend Weighting
Default: On (true)
What it is: Weights signals based on price trend alignment.
How it works:
Uptrend + Commercials long = Stronger bullish signal
Downtrend + Commercials short = Stronger bearish signal
Counter-trend signals = Harder to trigger (more conservative)
Trading Use: Keep enabled for more reliable signals. Commercials aligned with price trend are historically more accurate.
This feature makes signals easier to trigger when commercials align with the trend and harder when they're counter-trend.
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Trend MA Period
Default: 40 | Range: 1-200
What it is: Moving average period for price trend detection.
How it works:
Price above MA with the MA rising = Uptrend
Price below MA with the MA declining = Downtrend
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📈 Group 4: Plot Display Settings
Commercial Line Settings
Default Color: Red | Default Width: 2
What it is: Controls the Commercial traders net position line appearance.
Trading Use: Commercials are considered "smart money." Watch for:
Extreme long positions (high index ≥74%) = Heavy buyers = BULLISH signal
Extreme short positions (low index ≤26%) = Heavy sellers = BEARISH signal
Red is traditional for commercials. When Commercials are heavy buyers (high index), it's a bullish signal. When they're heavy sellers (low index), it's a bearish signal.
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Non-Commercial Line Settings
Default Color: Blue | Default Width: 2
What it is: Controls the Non-Commercial (Large Speculators) net position line appearance.
Trading Use: Large speculators are often trend-followers. Watch for:
Extreme long = Potential top (contrarian sell signal)
Extreme short = Potential bottom (contrarian buy signal)
They're often wrong at extremes - use as contrarian indicator.
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Small Speculator Line Settings
Default Color: Green | Default Width: 2
What it is: Controls the Small Speculators net position line appearance.
Trading Use: Small specs are typically wrong at extremes:
Extreme long = Potential top (sell signal)
Extreme short = Potential bottom (buy signal)
Exception: In Meats markets, small specs are accurate (like commercials).
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Small Speculator Multiplier
Default: 5.0x | Range: 0.1-20.0
What it is: Multiplies Small Speculator PLOTTED values for visual comparison.
Important: This only affects the visual plot line, NOT calculations or table values. Raw values used in all calculations remain unchanged.
Trading Use: Small spec positions are often much smaller than commercials. Use multiplier (default 5.0x) to scale the line for easier visual comparison.
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Open Interest Line Settings
Default Color: Black | Default Width: 1
What it is: Controls the Open Interest line appearance.
Trading Use: Open Interest shows market participation:
Rising OI = New money entering (confirms trend)
Falling OI = Money leaving (potential reversal)
Watch WHO is driving OI changes - This is critical
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Scale Open Interest
Default: On (true)
What it is: Scales Open Interest values to fit chart range.
Important: Only affects plotted lines, not table values. Scaling changes based on lookback period:
- Shorter lookback = More compressed range
- Longer lookback = Wider range
Trading Use: Keep enabled for better visual comparison. Disable if you want absolute OI values.
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Show Reference Lines
Default: Off (false)
What it is: Toggles the display of horizontal reference lines at 0%, 50%, and 100% levels on the chart.
What it shows:
Zero Line (0%) - Dotted gray line at 0% level
Midline (50%) - Solid gray line at 50% level
100 Line (100%) - Dotted gray line at 100% level
Trading Use: Enable when you want visual reference points for:
0% = Extreme bearish positioning
50% = Neutral/middle range
100% = Extreme bullish positioning
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🔄 Group 5: Smoothing Settings
Smoothing Method
Options: None | SMA | EMA | WMA | RMA
What it is: Selects the moving average type for smoothing data.
None - Use raw data (no smoothing)
SMA - Simple Moving Average (equal weight to all periods)
EMA - Exponential Moving Average (more weight to recent data)
WMA - Weighted Moving Average (linear weighting)
RMA - Relative Moving Average (Wilder's smoothing)
Trading Use:
None - Best for catching extremes quickly
SMA - Most common, balanced smoothing
EMA - More responsive to recent changes
WMA/RMA - Advanced smoothing methods
Smoothing reduces noise but may delay signal detection. Use None for most responsive signals.
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Smoothing Period
Default: 4 | Range: 2-20
What it is: Number of periods for the moving average smoothing.
Trading Use:
Shorter periods (2-5) = Less smoothing, more responsive
Longer periods (10-20) = More smoothing, less noise
Default 4 = Good balance
Only used when Smoothing Method is not None.
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Smooth COT Report Plots
Default: Off (false)
What it is: Applies smoothing to COT Report plotted lines (Commercial, Non-Commercial, Small Speculators, Open Interest).
Trading Use: Enable if you want smoother chart lines. Note: Smoothing affects visual display but calculations use raw data unless Smooth COT Index Plots is also enabled.
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Smooth COT Index Plots
Default: Off (false)
What it is: Applies smoothing to COT Index plotted lines.
Trading Use: Enable if you want smoother index lines. Important : When enabled, smoothed values are used in table displays and signal calculations. This affects the "user-facing" index values shown in the table and used for signals.
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📊 Group 6: COT Proximity Index Settings
Proximity Length Mode
Options: Auto | Manual
What it is: Controls how the proximity index calculation period is determined.
Auto - Calculates length based on ZigZag patterns (dynamic)
Manual - Uses fixed length setting
Trading Use: Use Auto for adaptive calculation. Use Manual if you want consistent period regardless of market conditions.
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Manual Proximity Length
Default: 8 bars | Range: 1+
What it is: Fixed number of bars for COT Proximity Index calculation. Only used when Proximity Length Mode is Manual .
Trading Use: Set based on your timeframe. 8 bars works well for weekly chart.
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Heavy Buyers Level
Default: 74% | Range: 50-100
What it is: COT Index level above which commercials are considered heavy buyers (extreme long positioning).
Trading Use: This threshold is used for:
- Signal generation
- Market state calculation
- Entry level recommendations
Default 74% means commercials are "heavy buyers" when LW Index ≥ 74%.
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Heavy Sellers Level
Default: 26% | Range: 0-50
What it is: COT Index level below which commercials are considered heavy sellers (extreme short positioning).
Trading Use: This threshold is used for:
- Signal generation
- Market state calculation
- Entry level recommendations
Default 26% means commercials are "heavy sellers" when LW Index ≤ 26%.
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ZigZag Deviation
Default: 1.0% | Range: 1-100.0
What it is: Minimum price change (%) required to create a new ZigZag pivot point.
Trading Use:
Smaller values = More sensitive, more pivots
Larger values = Less sensitive, fewer pivots
Used for Auto proximity length calculation.
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ZigZag Depth
Default: 1 | Range: 1+
What it is: Minimum number of bars between pivot points.
Trading Use: Higher values filter out minor pivots. Default 1 captures all significant pivots.
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Extend ZigZag to Last Bar
Default: Off (false)
What it is: Draws ZigZag lines to the current bar (may show incomplete patterns).
Trading Use: Enable to see current ZigZag pattern, but be aware it may change as new bars form.
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Show ZigZag Lines
Default: Off (false)
What it is: Displays ZigZag pivot lines on the chart for visual reference.
Trading Use: Enable to see the ZigZag pattern used for proximity index calculation. Useful for understanding how Auto mode works.
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🎨 Group 7: Common Table Settings
Color Theme
Options: Dark | Light | Midnight Blue | Ocean Blue | Forest Green | Amber Gold | Slate Gray
What it is: Color scheme for both main and historical comparison tables.
Trading Use: Choose based on your preference:
Dark/Light - Classic themes
Midnight Blue - Professional dark theme
Ocean Blue - Calming blue tones
Forest Green - Natural green theme
Amber Gold - Warm gold tones
Slate Gray - Modern gray theme
Theme applies to both tables simultaneously for consistency.
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📋 Group 8: Main Table Display Settings
Show COT Table
Default: On (true)
What it is: Toggles the main COT analysis table display.
Trading Use: Disable only if you want to use chart plots only. Most traders keep this enabled for comprehensive analysis.
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Table Mode
Options: Full | Compact
What it is: Controls the detail level of the main table.
Full - Complete analysis table with all sections
Compact - Essential info only (mobile-friendly)
Trading Use:
Full - Desktop trading, comprehensive analysis
Compact - Mobile trading, quick reference
See "Table Modes Explained" section below for details.
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Table Position
Options: Top Right | Top Left | Bottom Right | Bottom Left | Middle Right | Middle Left
What it is: Position of the main COT analysis table on the chart.
Trading Use: Choose based on your chart layout and preference. Top Right is default and works well for most traders.
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Table Text Size
Options: Tiny | Small | Normal | Large
What it is: Size of text in the COT analysis table.
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Section Visibility Controls
All default: On (true)
What it is: Individual toggles to show/hide specific table sections.
⚙️ Settings - Report Type, CFTC Code, Options setting
📊 Current Positions - Long, Short, Net positions for each group
📈 Analysis - LW Index, Percentile, Market State
🎯 Trading Edge & Signals - Current Signal, Entry Level, Best Setup
💡 Trading Tips - Context-aware trading insights
📈 Trend Analysis - Trend Direction, Strength, Cum Change, ROC, vs MA
🔄 Market Maker Activity - Spreading, Activity Level, Trading Edge
Trading Use: Customize your table to show only what you need:
Quick traders - Show only Trading Edge & Signals
Detailed analysis - Show all sections
Mobile users - Hide less critical sections
Each section can be toggled independently for maximum customization.
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📊 Group 9: Historical Comparison Settings
Show Historical Comparisons
Default: On (true)
What it is: Toggles the historical comparison table display.
Trading Use: This table shows how current positions rank over different time periods (1M, 3M, 6M, 1Y, 3Y, All Time). Very useful for context.
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Historical Table Mode
Options: Full | Compact
What it is: Controls the detail level of the historical comparison table.
Full - Complete historical comparison with all time periods (1M, 3M, 6M, 1Y, 3Y, All Time) and all COT groups
Compact - Essential periods only (1M, 3M, 6M, 1Y, All Time) showing Commercial % only
Trading Use:
- Full - Comprehensive historical analysis
- Compact - Quick reference, mobile-friendly
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Table Position (Historical)
Options: Top Right | Top Left | Bottom Right | Bottom Left
What it is: Position of the historical comparison table on the chart.
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Table Text Size (Historical)
Options: Tiny | Small | Normal | Large
What it is: Size of text in the historical comparison table.
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Trading Days
Options: Weekdays | 24/7
What it is: How to calculate time periods for historical comparisons.
Weekdays - Calculate based on trading days only (5 days/week)
24/7 - Include all calendar days (7 days/week), Use for 24/7 markets like cryptocurrencies
Used for both main COT data and COT Proximity Index historical comparisons.
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📊 Table Modes Explained
Full Mode - Main Table
The Full mode displays all available sections:
⚙️ Settings - Report type, CFTC code, options setting
📊 Current Positions - Long, Short, Net for Commercial, Non-Commercial, Small Speculators
📊 Open Interest Analysis - OI value, change, who's driving changes, concentration
📈 Analysis - Percentile ranks, LW Index values, Market State
🎯 Trading Edge & Signals - Current Signal, Entry Level, What to Watch, Best Setup
💡 Trading Tips - Context-aware insights
📈 Trend Analysis - Trend Direction, Strength, Consistency, Cumulative Change, ROC %, vs MA
🔄 Market Maker Activity - Spreading %, Activity Level, Interpretation, Trading Edge
Best for: Desktop trading, comprehensive analysis, detailed market assessment
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📋 Understanding Each Table Section
This section explains what each part of the main table means and how to use it for trading decisions.
⚙️ Settings Section
Report Type - Shows which COT report format you're using (Legacy, Disaggregated, or Financial). Verify this matches your asset type.
Options - Indicates if options data is included ("Included") or excluded ("Excluded"). Most traders exclude options for cleaner analysis.
CFTC Code - Unique identifier for your futures contract. Shows "Auto" when automatically detected, or displays the manual code if set.
Trading Use: Always verify your CFTC code is correct. Wrong code = wrong data = wrong signals.
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📊 Current Positions Section
Shows the actual position sizes for each trader group.
What Each Column Means:
Long - Total long contracts held by this group
Short - Total short contracts held by this group
Net - Net position (Long - Short). This is the key number.
How to Interpret:
Commercial Net Position:
- Negative (Net Short) = Commercials expect prices to fall
- Positive (Net Long) = Commercials expect prices to rise
- Commercials are "smart money" - their positioning often precedes major moves
Non-Commercial Net Position:
- Positive (Net Long) = Large speculators bullish
- Negative (Net Short) = Large speculators bearish
- Often trend-followers, can be caught at extremes
Small Spec Net Position:
- Positive (Net Long) = Small traders bullish
- Negative (Net Short) = Small traders bearish
- Often contrarian indicator - wrong at extremes
Trading Edge: Watch for extremes in Commercial net positions. When Commercials are heavy buyers (high index ≥74%), it's a bullish signal. When they're heavy sellers (low index ≤26%), it's a bearish signal.
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📊 Open Interest Analysis Section
Open Interest - Total number of outstanding contracts. Shows market participation level.
Change - Week-over-week change in Open Interest. Rising OI = new money entering, Falling OI = money leaving.
Net Changes - Shows which group is driving Open Interest changes. This is Larry Williams' most important insight.
🎯 Critical Question: Who is Driving OI Changes?
EXTREMELY BULLISH SIGNAL (Very Rare - Pay Close Attention):
- Commercials driving OI increase + Commercials raising positions + Uptrend market
- Meaning: Smart money (commercials) accumulating long positions while market is rising
- Action: Extremely bullish - very rare setup, pay close attention to this signal
- This is the strongest bullish signal possible
BULLISH SIGNAL (Strong Buy):
- Commercials driving OI increase + Commercials net long
- Meaning: Smart money accumulating long positions
- Action: Strong bullish setup
BEARISH SIGNAL (Strong Sell - Market Topping):
- Commercials exiting + OI increasing due to Small Specs + Non-Commercials
- Meaning: Smart money leaving while speculative money entering
- Action: Market top forming - most likely scenario for bearish reversal
- This indicates speculative excess and potential market top
BEARISH SIGNAL (Speculative Excess):
- Small Specs + Non-Commercials driving OI increase + They are net long
- Meaning: Speculative excess, "dumb money" driving market
- Action: Bearish reversal likely
Trading Use:
- Rising OI = New money entering (confirms trend)
- Falling OI = Money leaving (potential reversal)
- Watch WHO is driving OI changes - This is critical
- When Commercials drive OI increases while raising positions in an uptrend = Extremely bullish and very rare - pay attention
- When Commercials exit while OI increases due to Small Specs and Non-Commercials = Market topping signal
Concentration - Shows how much of the market is controlled by the largest traders:
- Top 4 - Four largest traders' share of total OI
- Top 8 - Eight largest traders' share of total OI
Trading Use: High concentration (>30%) means fewer dominant players, potential for volatility. Low concentration means more distributed positions, healthier market.
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📈 Analysis Section
Proximity Index (when in COT Proximity Index mode):
- Value: Current proximity index reading (0-100%)
- Length: Number of bars used in calculation
- Status: Heavy Buyers, Heavy Sellers, or Neutral
Analysis Method - Shows whether you're using Percentile or LW Index calculation.
Small Spec Mode - Shows how Small Speculators are interpreted:
- Contrarian (Traditional) - Small specs are wrong at extremes (default)
- Accurate (Meats) - Small specs are accurate like commercials (for Meats markets)
Market State - Overall market sentiment assessment:
- STRONG BULLISH - Multiple factors aligned bullish, strong buy signal
- MODERATE BULLISH - Several bullish factors, moderate buy signal
- LEANING BULLISH - Slight bullish bias, watch for confirmation
- NEUTRAL - Mixed signals, trade with existing trend
- LEANING BEARISH - Slight bearish bias, watch for confirmation
- MODERATE BEARISH - Several bearish factors, moderate sell signal
- STRONG BEARISH - Multiple factors aligned bearish, strong sell signal
Trading Use: Start your analysis here. Market State gives you the overall picture before diving into details.
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🎯 Trading Edge & Signals Section
Current Signal - Shows which combination is active based on current positioning extremes and its expected accuracy percentage:
- Comm+Spec+OI - All three groups at extremes (highest accuracy)
- Comm+Spec - Commercials and specs at extremes (opposite extremes - Larry Williams' favorite)
- Comm+OI - Commercials and Open Interest at extremes (smart money + participation)
- Commercials - Only Commercials at extreme (smart money indicator)
- Wait - No extremes detected, wait for setup
Entry - Trading signal based on Commercial positioning:
- LONG - Commercials are heavy buyers (≥Heavy Buyers Level), bullish signal
- SHORT - Commercials are heavy sellers (≤Heavy Sellers Level), bearish signal
- Wait - Commercials neutral, no clear signal
Best Setup - Shows the historically highest accuracy combination found in the data:
- Comm+Spec+SmallSpec+OI - All four groups aligned (strongest signal)
- Comm+Spec+OI (All) - Commercials + Speculators + Open Interest aligned
- Comm+Spec+SmallSpec - Commercials + Speculators + Small Specs aligned
- Comm+Spec (Both) - Commercials + Speculators (opposite extremes - Larry Williams' favorite)
- Comm+OI (Both) - Commercials + Open Interest (participation confirms smart money)
- Comm+SmallSpec - Commercials + Small Specs (especially strong in Meats markets)
- Commercials Alone - Commercial positioning only (baseline - smart money indicator)
Trading Use: This is your action center . Focus on Entry signals when Market State confirms. Higher accuracy setups (shown in Best Setup) are more reliable.
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💡 Trading Tips Section
Context-aware insights based on current market conditions.
What You'll See:
Commercial positioning assessment (extreme long/short, favorable/unfavorable)
Speculator positioning (contrarian support or warning)
Open Interest guidance (who's driving changes)
Trend assessment (aligning or conflicting)
Information about entry timing, position sizing, and confirmation needs
Trading Use: Review these tips when analyzing. They provide context-specific information tailored to current conditions.
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📈 Trend Analysis Section
Trend Direction - Overall price trend:
- Bullish - Price trending up
- Bearish - Price trending down
- Mixed - No clear direction
Consistency - How stable the trend is:
- Consistent - Trend is stable and maintaining direction
- Mixed - Trend is unstable, direction changing
- Accelerating - Trend is gaining momentum
Strength - Trend intensity:
- Strong - Powerful trend
- Steady - Moderate trend
- Weak - Weak trend
This Week - Net position change this week (percentage).
Cumulative Change - Total net position change over different periods:
- 4W - 4-week cumulative change
- 13W - 13-week cumulative change (one quarter)
- 26W - 26-week cumulative change (half year)
ROC % - Rate of Change percentage over different periods. Shows momentum.
vs MA - Current net position compared to moving average:
- Positive = Above average (strong positioning)
- Negative = Below average (weak positioning)
Trading Use: Align COT signals with trend direction for higher accuracy. When COT signals align with price trend, signals are more reliable. Counter-trend signals require more confirmation.
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🔄 Market Maker Activity Section
Total Spreading - Percentage of open interest in spread positions (simultaneous long and short in different months).
Percentile - Where current spreading level ranks historically. High percentile = unusual spreading activity.
13W Trend - 13-week trend in spreading activity (+ = increasing, - = decreasing).
Activity Level - Market maker activity intensity:
- High - Very active, expect volatility
- Moderate - Normal activity
- Low - Quiet, less volatility expected
vs 13W Avg - Current activity compared to 13-week average.
Trading Edge - Interpretation of market maker activity:
- High & Rising - Expect volatility, market makers hedging risk
- High & Stable - Active hedging, monitor for changes
- Low & Falling - Reduced activity, potential for directional moves
Trading Use: High market maker activity often precedes volatility. Use this to adjust position sizing and risk management. When spreading is high and rising, expect choppy conditions.
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📋 Understanding Compact Mode Fields
The Compact mode provides essential information for quick trading decisions. Here's what each field means:
State
Shows the overall market sentiment based on combined COT analysis.
Possible Values:
- STRONG BULLISH - Multiple factors aligned bullish, strong buy signal
- MODERATE BULLISH - Several bullish factors, moderate buy signal
- LEANING BULLISH - Slight bullish bias, watch for confirmation
- NEUTRAL - Mixed signals, trade with existing trend
- LEANING BEARISH - Slight bearish bias, watch for confirmation
- MODERATE BEARISH - Several bearish factors, moderate sell signal
- STRONG BEARISH - Multiple factors aligned bearish, strong sell signal
Trading Use: Start your analysis here. Strong signals (STRONG BULLISH/BEARISH) indicate higher confidence setups. Neutral means trade with price trend.
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Entry
Your actionable trading signal based on Commercial positioning.
Possible Values:
- LONG - Commercials are heavy buyers (≥Heavy Buyers Level), bullish signal
- SHORT - Commercials are heavy sellers (≤Heavy Sellers Level), bearish signal
- Wait - Commercials neutral, no clear signal
Trading Use: This is your go/no-go decision point. Only take trades when Entry shows LONG or SHORT. When Entry = Wait, stay on sidelines until clearer signal develops.
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Comm Index
Commercial LW Index percentage showing where Commercial net position ranks historically.
Range: 0% to 100%
- 0-26% = Commercials heavy sellers (bearish positioning)
- 27-73% = Commercials neutral (no extreme)
- 74-100% = Commercials heavy buyers (bullish positioning)
Trading Use: Commercial extremes are most reliable. Values ≥74% (heavy buyers/extreme long) = BULLISH signal. Values ≤26% (heavy sellers/extreme short) = BEARISH signal. When Commercials are heavy buyers, it indicates bullish sentiment. When they're heavy sellers, it indicates bearish sentiment.
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OI Status
Open Interest condition showing market participation level and trend.
Format: Status (Percentile %)
Examples:
- High (100.0%) - OI at extreme high, strong participation
- Moderate (50.0%) - OI at average level
- Low (10.0%) - OI at extreme low, weak participation
Trend Indicators:
- Rising - OI increasing (new money entering)
- Falling - OI decreasing (money leaving)
- Stable - OI unchanged
Trading Use: High OI with rising trend = strong market participation, confirms directional moves. Falling OI = watch for potential reversals. Low OI = reduced participation, potential for volatility.
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Best Setup
Shows which combination of factors has the highest historical accuracy.
Format: Combination Name (Accuracy %)
Examples:
- Commercials Alone (75.3%) - Commercial positioning only
- Commercials + Speculators (68.2%) - Commercials and specs aligned
- Commercials + Open Interest (72.1%) - Commercials with OI confirmation
- Commercials + Speculators + OI (82.1%) - All factors aligned (strongest)
Trading Use: Higher accuracy values indicate signals with higher historical accuracy. When Best Setup shows "Commercials + Speculators + OI" with high accuracy, it indicates a combination with strong historical performance.
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Trend
13-week cumulative trend direction based on net position changes.
Possible Values:
- Bullish - Net positions trending bullish over 13 weeks
- Bearish - Net positions trending bearish over 13 weeks
- Mixed - No clear directional trend
Trading Use: Align Entry signals with Trend for higher accuracy. When Entry = LONG and Trend = Bullish, signal is stronger. When Entry = LONG but Trend = Bearish, wait for price confirmation before entering. Counter-trend signals require more confirmation.
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Full Mode - Historical Table
The Full historical mode shows:
All time periods: 1 Month, 3 Months, 6 Months, 1 Year, 3 Years, All Time
All COT groups: Commercial, Non-Commercial, Small Speculators, Open Interest
Complete header with asset type and lookback information
Best for: Comprehensive historical analysis, understanding long-term positioning
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Compact Mode - Historical Table
The Compact historical mode shows:
Essential periods only: 1M, 3M, 6M, 1Y, All Time
Commercial % only (most important indicator)
Simplified header
Best for: Quick reference, mobile-friendly, focused analysis
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🎯 How to Use Each Feature for Trading
Using Display Modes
COT Report Mode - Use for:
Understanding raw position sizes
Analyzing net position changes
Comparing absolute positions across groups
Detailed market structure analysis
COT Index Mode - Use for:
Quick sentiment assessment
Identifying extremes (Percentile can show >100% or <0%, LW Index shows 0-100%)
Comparing relative positioning
Signal generation
COT Proximity Index Mode - Use for:
When COT data is delayed
Real-time sentiment estimation
Price-action based analysis
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Using Analysis Methods
Percentile Method - Use when:
You want to catch new extremes (>100% or <0%)
You need responsive signals
You're analyzing recent market regime changes
You want to use the professional approach (excludes current bar from range)
LW Index Method - Use when:
You want traditional Larry Williams analysis
You prefer stable, conservative signals
You're doing long-term analysis
You want always 0-100% range
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Using Signal Generation
Enable Signal Arrows when:
You want visual alerts for high-quality setups
You're scanning multiple charts
You want to catch extreme positioning
Enable Background Colors when:
You want quick visual market state assessment
You're monitoring multiple timeframes
You want to see market conditions at a glance
Use Price Trend Weighting to:
Increase signal reliability
Align COT signals with price action
Filter counter-trend signals
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Using Smoothing
No Smoothing - Best for:
Catching extremes quickly
Responsive signal generation
Active trading
With Smoothing - Best for:
Reducing noise
Trend identification
Swing trading
Remember: Smoothing affects visual display. Enable "Smooth COT Index Plots" if you want smoothed values in calculations.
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Using Heavy Buyers/Sellers Levels
Default 74%/26% - Good starting point
Tighter levels (80%/20%) - More conservative, fewer signals
Wider levels (70%/30%) - More signals, less extreme
Trading Use: Adjust based on your risk tolerance and signal frequency preference.
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Using Table Sections
Settings - Verify your configuration
Current Positions - Understand current market structure
Analysis - Identify extremes and market state
Trading Edge & Signals - Most important - Entry signals based on Commercial positioning
Trading Tips - Context-aware insights
Trend Analysis - Understand momentum and direction
Market Maker Activity - Assess market maker positioning
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💡 Key Trading Concepts
Market State Interpretation
STRONG BULLISH - Multiple factors aligned bullish. Strong buy signal.
MODERATE BULLISH - Several bullish factors. Moderate buy signal.
LEANING BULLISH - Slight bullish bias. Watch for confirmation.
NEUTRAL - Mixed signals. Trade with existing trend.
LEANING BEARISH - Slight bearish bias. Watch for confirmation.
MODERATE BEARISH - Several bearish factors. Moderate sell signal.
STRONG BEARISH - Multiple factors aligned bearish. Strong sell signal.
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Entry Level Signals
LONG - Commercials are heavy buyers (≥Heavy Buyers Level). Bullish signal.
SHORT - Commercials are heavy sellers (≤Heavy Sellers Level). Bearish signal.
Wait - Commercials neutral. No clear signal.
When Commercials are heavy buyers (high index), it indicates bullish sentiment. When they're heavy sellers (low index), it indicates bearish sentiment.
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Best Setup Interpretation
The Best Setup shows the historically highest accuracy combination:
Commercials Alone - Commercial positioning is most reliable
Commercials + Speculators - Both groups aligned
Commercials + Open Interest - Commercials + OI confirmation
Commercials + Speculators + OI - All factors aligned (strongest)
Higher accuracy = More reliable signal. Use this to prioritize which signals to follow.
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Open Interest Analysis
Critical Question: Who is driving Open Interest changes?
EXTREMELY BULLISH (Very Rare):
Commercials driving OI increase + Commercials raising positions + Uptrend = EXTREMELY BULLISH
This is very rare - pay close attention when this occurs
STRONG BULLISH:
Commercials driving OI increase + Commercials long = STRONG BULLISH
BEARISH (Market Topping):
Commercials exiting + OI increasing due to Small Specs + Non-Commercials = BEARISH (market topping)
Most likely scenario for bearish reversal - speculative excess
BEARISH (Speculative Excess):
Speculators driving OI increase + Speculators long = BEARISH (speculative excess)
TREND CONFIRMATION:
Rising OI = Confirms trend (new money entering)
Falling OI = Potential reversal (money leaving)
This is one of Larry Williams' most important insights. When Commercials drive OI increases while raising positions in an uptrend, it's extremely bullish and very rare - pay attention. When Commercials exit while Small Specs and Non-Commercials drive OI increases, the market is likely topping.
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🚀 Practical Trading Workflow
Daily Analysis Routine
Check Market State - Overall assessment
Review Entry Level - Actionable signal
Check Best Setup - Signal reliability
Review Trading Tips - Context-aware insights
Analyze Trend Analysis - Momentum confirmation
Check Historical Comparison - Context over time
Verify Open Interest - Who's driving changes
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Signal Confirmation Checklist
Before taking a trade based on COT signals:
✓ Market State shows clear bias (not Neutral)
✓ Entry Level matches Market State
✓ Best Setup shows high accuracy (>60%)
✓ Price trend aligns with signal (if using trend weighting)
✓ Open Interest confirms (rising for trend continuation, falling for reversal)
✓ Historical comparison shows extreme positioning
✓ Price action confirms (wait for price confirmation)
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⚠️ Important Notes
COT data is weekly - Updates every Friday afternoon
Extremes can persist - Don't expect immediate reversals
Combine with price action - COT is one tool among many
Historical context matters - Consider market conditions
Meats markets are special - Small specs are accurate (like commercials)
Signals are rare - High-quality signals don't appear every week
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This description covers all settings and features of the Larry Williams COT Analysis Enhanced indicator. Larry Williams recommends combining COT analysis with other indicators for setup signals: Williams Sentiment Index, Williams Valuation Index, Williams True Seasonal, Pinch and Paunch Signal, along with price action, technical analysis, and fundamental factors.
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📖 Conclusion
The Larry Williams COT Analysis Enhanced indicator provides a sophisticated framework for understanding market sentiment through the lens of different participant groups. By combining mathematical analysis with behavioral insights, it displays COT positioning data, calculates index values, and generates signals based on extreme positioning.
Remember: This is a tool for analysis, not a crystal ball. Consider combining COT analysis with other Larry Williams indicators, price action, technical analysis, and fundamental factors.
Practice with the indicator, study historical signals, and develop your understanding of how different market participants behave. Signals with multiple factors aligned - Commercials at extremes, Open Interest changes driven by the right groups, and price action confirming the COT signals - have shown higher historical accuracy.
This description provides comprehensive documentation for the Larry Williams COT Analysis Enhanced indicator. For the most current data and analysis, always refer to the latest COT reports and market conditions.
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Acknowledgment
This tool builds upon the foundational work of Larry Williams, who developed the Commitments of Traders (COT) analysis methodology and the principles for interpreting COT data. It also incorporates enhancements including statistical validation, combination analysis, adaptive signal generation, and comprehensive historical comparison features.
Note: Always practice proper risk management and thoroughly test the indicator to ensure it aligns with your trading strategy. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Cotreport
CoT Bias Tracker [DOSALGO]Unlock a powerful new dimension in your market analysis with the CoT Bias Tracker . This advanced tool goes beyond price charts to reveal the positioning of the market's largest players, allowing you to track the "smart money" and make more informed trading decisions.
By harnessing the weekly Commitment of Traders (CoT) report, this indicator automatically fetches, processes, and displays the net positioning of Commercials (Hedgers), Non-Commercials (Large Speculators), and Retail traders. Its standout feature is the unique dual-asset analysis for Forex pairs, which automatically breaks down a pair like EURUSD into its Base (EUR) and Quote (USD) components, giving you a crystal-clear view of the capital flows driving the market.
Stop guessing the trend and start tracking the institutional bias that truly matters.
Key Features
📈 Complete CoT Data Analysis: Automatically fetches and displays the latest weekly net positions for three key market participants: Commercials, Non-Commercials, and Retail Traders.
🌍 Unique Forex Pair Analysis: The only tool you'll need for Forex. It intelligently separates pairs (e.g., AUDJPY) into their Base (AUD) and Quote (JPY) currencies and displays a full CoT analysis for each, revealing which currency is truly in demand.
📊 Advanced Bias Dashboard: A comprehensive and fully customizable dashboard provides an at-a-glance summary of the market's sentiment, including current positions, weekly changes, and both short-term and long-term bias readings.
🧠 Conviction Analysis: This indicator goes deeper than just net positions. By analyzing the relationship between positioning changes and Open Interest, it gauges the conviction behind a move, distinguishing between a "Strong Long" (new money entering) and a "Weak Long" (short covering).
🚀 POIV Metric: Includes the Position x Open Interest Volume (POIV) metric, an advanced tool for measuring the cumulative force behind positioning changes over time.
📉 Historical Data Plotting: Visualize the net positioning data and its moving average directly on your chart's indicator pane. This is perfect for identifying historical extremes, divergences, and long-term trends in positioning.
⚙️ Automatic Symbol Recognition: The indicator intelligently detects the asset on your chart—from Forex pairs to indices like the S&P 500 and commodities like Gold—and automatically fetches the correct CoT data.
🎨 Full Customization: Tailor the entire tool to your workspace. Control the dashboard's position, size, and colors. Toggle the visibility of any data row or plot to focus only on what matters to you.
The Dashboard Explained
The dashboard gives you a complete, multi-faceted view of the market's positioning.
Participant Groups:
Commercials: Often considered the "smart money." They use futures to hedge their business operations and typically fade trends, buying into lows and selling into highs.
Non-Commercials: Large speculators like hedge funds and institutions. They are typically trend-followers, and their positioning is a powerful indicator of the current dominant trend.
Retail Traders: Small, non-reportable speculators. They are often seen as a contrarian indicator.
Net Positions & Change: See the raw net long or short positions from the current and previous week's report, along with the net change to understand the weekly capital flow.
S-Term Bias (Short-Term): Based on the weekly net change, this tells you who was buying and who was selling since the last report.
L-Term Bias (Long-Term): Compares the current net position to its moving average to define the dominant positioning trend. (Note: This reading is most effective on the Weekly chart timeframe.)
Conviction (via Open Interest): Found in the "Open Interest" row under the L-Term Bias column, this powerful metric tells you how positions are changing:
Strong Long: New buyers are entering the market with conviction.
Weak Long: Existing shorts are covering their positions.
Strong Short: New sellers are entering the market with conviction.
Weak Short: Existing longs are closing their positions.
Use Cases & Strategy
Trend Confirmation: Use the positioning of Non-Commercials to confirm the strength and direction of a trend you've identified with technical analysis.
Reversal Signals: Look for extreme net positioning levels or divergences between Commercial and Non-Commercial sentiment, which can often precede major market reversals.
Forex Strength Analysis: When trading a pair like GBPJPY, use the dashboard to see if Non-Commercials are strongly bullish on GBP while being bearish on JPY. This "double confirmation" can highlight high-probability trade setups.
Important Notes
Understanding CoT Data: The Commitment of Traders report is released by the CFTC every Friday afternoon (~3:30 PM ET). Crucially, it reflects the positions that were held on the preceding Tuesday. It is a tool for gauging medium- to long-term sentiment, not for intraday signals.
Disclaimer: This tool is for analytical and educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. All forms of trading involve risk. Always conduct your own research and apply robust risk management.
ICT Commitment of Traders° by toodegreesDescription:
The Commitment of Traders (COT) is a valuable raw data report released weekly by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). This report offers insights into the current long and short positions of three key market entities:
Commercial Traders ( usually represented in red )
Large Traders ( typically depicted in green )
Small Speculator Traders ( commonly shown in blue )
The concept of utilizing the COT data as a strategic trading tool was first introduced by Larry Williams, who emphasized the importance of monitoring Commercial Speculators – large corporate producers or consumers of commodities.
The Inner Circle Trader (ICT) prompts us to delve deeper into this data. While we can easily determine their Net Position (also referred to as the Main Program) by subtracting Commercial Short Positions from the Commercial Long Positions, this calculation doesn't reveal their ongoing Hedge Program .
Merely following the Main Program won't provide a trading edge. Aligning with the Hedge Program can be an invaluable weapon in your trading arsenal.
The Commercial Speculators' Hedge Program can be unveiled by examining the highest and lowest reading of their Net Position over a chosen time period and setting a new "zero line" between these extremes. This process generates a novel "COT Graph" providing a detailed understanding of the Commercial Speculators' current market activity.
When the Hedge Program, Seasonality, and Open Interest are cross-referenced with Institutional Orderflow, a trader can construct a very clear medium-to-long-term market narrative.
Features:
Access COT Data for the Commercial Speculators via Tradingview's reliable data source
Automate calculations and display the 3-month, 6-month, 12-month, 2-year, and 3-year Hedge Program
Define your own Custom Time Range for the Hedge Program
Display the Main Program and all Hedge Programs in an easy-to-understand table format
Additionally, by following the included instructions, you can augment your table with COT data from multiple markets. This extra information can help monitor correlated markets and develop a more robust market narrative:
Commitment of Traders ~ INDEXESMy intention was to create 1 script for the Commitment of Traders report but I wasn't not aware there is a limit on how many instrument calls can be made in PineScript so I had no choice but to divide the script into instrument categories. So far I have created 4 of them: Forex, Metals/ Commodities, Treasuries & Indexes which is the one presented here. If you are interested in the other ones, feel free to do a search.
Available Instruments: Mini S&P, VIX, Mini NASDAQ, Mini RUSSELL, EAFE Index (Global Developed Markets & EMRG Index (Global Emerging Markets)
The script calculates and plots the ZScore of both Net Long (Money Managers / Asset Managers) and Net Long (Dealers / Swap). In some instrument categories you will also see Open Interest. It depends on whether I was maxed out or not on making security calls.
If you are not familiar with ZScore, it basically calculates the distance of price from a mean average in units of Standard Deviation. In theory when price reaches +2 it signifies overbought while if it reaches -2 is oversold. However just because it's hitting an extreme in one particular average doesn't necessarily mean it will reverse as the position of price in relation with the next longer average might not be so out of range.
Must be attached to weekly chart.
If you have any questions/suggestions, feel free to add them in the comments below
Commitment of Traders ~ TREASURIESMy intention was to create 1 script for the Commitment of Traders report but I wasn't not aware there is a limit on how many instrument calls can be made in PineScript so I had no choice but to divide the script into instrument categories. So far I have created 4 of them: Forex, Indexes & Metals/ Commodities & Treasuries which is the one presented here. If you are interested in the other ones, feel free to do a search.
Available Instruments: Ultra(25-35yrs), Bonds(15-25yrs), 10yrs, 5yrs, 2yrs & 3 Month EuroDollar
The script calculates the ZScore of both Net Long (Money Managers / Asset Managers) and Net Long (Dealers / Swap) In some instrument categories you will also see Open Interest. It depends on whether I was maxed out or not on making security calls.
If you are not familiar with ZScore, it basically calculates the distance of price from a mean average in units of Standard Deviation. In theory when price reaches +2 it signifies overbought while if it reaches -2 is oversold. However just because it's hitting an extreme in one particular average doesn't necessarily mean it will reverse as the position of price in relation with the next longer average might not be so out of range.
Must be attached to weekly chart.
If you have any questions/suggestions, feel free to add them in the comments below
Commitment of Traders ~ COMMODITIES/METALSMy intention was to create 1 script for the Commitment of Traders report but I wasn't not aware there is a limit on how many instrument calls can be made in PineScript so I had no choice but to divide the script into instrument categories. So far I have created 4 of them: Forex, Treasuries, Indexes & Metals/ Commodities which is the one presented here. If you are interested in the other ones, feel free to do a search.
Available Instruments: Bloomberg Commodities Index, GOLD , SILVER , CRUDE OIL & NATURAL GAS
The script calculates the ZScore of both Net Long (Money Managers / Asset Managers) and Net Long (Dealers / Swap) In some instrument categories you will also see Open Interest. It depends on whether I was maxed out or not on making security calls.
If you are not familiar with ZScore, it basically calculates the distance of price from a mean average in units of Standard Deviation. In theory when price reaches +2 it signifies overbought while if it reaches -2 is oversold. However just because it's hitting an extreme in one particular average doesn't necessarily mean it will reverse as the position of price in relation with the next longer average might not be so out of range.
Must be attached to weekly chart.
If you have any questions/suggestions, feel free to add them in the comments below
COT extremes indexCalculates the difference between net of noncommercials and net of commercials.
Difference = (net of noncommercials) - (net of commercials).
The extreme reading in one end or another may indicate the possible change of trend.
Based on Tradingview COT sample script and Babypips formula.
Works on daily timeframe.






