Seasonality

Seasonality Analysis

This script is a technical tool designed to identify and project historical price cycles onto the current chart. It calculates the average price movement for specific time intervals (days, weeks, or months) over a multi-year lookback period to highlight recurring seasonal patterns.

Technical Features

Historical Averaging: Aggregates price deltas ($Close - Close[1]$) for each calendar "slot" (e.g., Trading Day 1–252) over a user-defined period (up to 30 years).
Multi-Timeframe Support: Automatically adapts to Daily (252 days), Weekly (52 weeks), or Monthly (12 months) intervals.
De-trending: Removes long-term linear bias from the data to isolate pure seasonal oscillations, ensuring the curve reflects cyclicality rather than just long-term trend.
Dynamic Scaling: Automatically scales the seasonal curve to match the price range of the currently visible bars for better visual alignment.
Future Projection: Plots the historical seasonal expectation into the future (the "empty" space to the right) to assist in cyclical forecasting.

Key Inputs

Lookback Period: Number of years included in the statistical average.
Smoothing (MA): Optional moving average applied to the seasonal curve to filter out noise.
Trading Days: Toggle between fixed (252) or variable calculation (useful for 24/7 or OTC markets).


Disclaimer: Past performance is not indicative of future results. Seasonality represents a statistical average of historical data and should not be used as a standalone signal for trading. Market conditions change, and historical cycles may fail to repeat due to fundamental shifts, black swan events, or changing market regimes. Use this tool only as a secondary filter within a comprehensive risk management strategy.