RobMinty

Diddly - Real Volume Trend

Diddly Real Volume Trend is an indicator to help traders identify the real trending direction of an asset, it achieves this by using liquidity to assess the overall buying and selling volume sentiment of a market place.


What is Liquidity

Liquidity refers to the ability of an asset to be turned into cash. Cash is the more liquid form of any asset, whereas selling a house would take a little longer to liquidate and convert to cash. Liquidity in financial markets is in essence based on the same principle and refers to how easily an asset can be bought and sold.

Liquidity in simple terms is the volume of participants who are willing to be involved in the market at any given time. Markets are based on auction theory, the more participants who want to buy at a certain price than sell, will dictate that the price goes up. As a result it is important to understand the role that volume has in financial markets, as volume will directly correlate to liquidity and supply and demand.


What does it mean?

Although markets are based on auction theory, sadly we don't have the advantage of a traditional auction, where we are all sitting in a room putting our hands in the air when we are interested in paying x price for a particular item. In this environment it is very clear to see how popular the item for sale is and whether it is possible to pick up a bargain.

Being able to identify the prevailing direction of buying versus selling volume on a chart provides an insight into market sentiment. Also we have to consider that typically most retail traders participate in very liquid markets, where you can get in and out of a position with relative ease.

There are obviously exceptions, extremely low float stocks, but on the whole with liquid assets it takes some big orders to move price, especially with currencies and high float stocks. Understanding these principles helps us as retail traders identify where the big money is seeing a bargain, if buying or overpriced if selling.

However you identify liquidity, I hope you agree that it is an extremely important element to be considering before taking a trade. The last thing any trader wants to be doing if they can avoid it, is getting on the wrong side of the market.

Just as a side note, high and low "Float Stocks" refers to the number of shares in general circulation for buying and selling.


What is "Diddly Real Volume Trend"
 
This volume trend indicator in simple terms will display the combined accumulated bullish and bearish volume within a window below the main chart. What you will see is a line chart that will be doing one of three things. Either it could be stair stepping in an upwards direction, identifying that we are in a bullish trend or stepping down in a bearish trend. Alternatively it could just be going sideways, which would suggest a ranging market.

This enables traders to make an assessment of the market sentiment using the liquidity direction that it has identified. This can help form an overall daily bias for intra-day traders or help confirm a longer term trend for swing traders.

Although this indicator is not a true oscillator (where the limits of number are fixed between a known upper and lower limit), it can still be extremely useful in identifying divergence in price and the volume sentiment. As well as assisting in the process of identifying and confirming peak formations and potential reversal points in a market.


How does it Work

The indicator is plotting the volume trend line based on the output of a set of volume calculations, which is confirmed on the close of each candle.  The resultant output is either a positive (Bullish sentiment) or negative (Bearish Sentiment), which are all totalled up to show the next point on the graph. As a result the visual effect seen from this process is that the more bullish calculated volume identified than bearish, you will see a rising trend line and the reverse for a bearish market.

The algo calculation which is used on each candle and its related volume is using the following elements.

  • Volume
  • Rate of Change
  • Relative Strength

The indicator is not just looking at the volume total and saying this is a green candle and must provide a positive number. It is looking for the volume and liquidity extremes and filtering out the nothingness of a market that makes no difference to price either way. It is from using these extremes that the indicator is able to plot the activities and direction of the big money in the market.


What is the Indicator Showing me?

Examples:

Here on a stock VKTX, on a 1 minute chart the elements that make up the indicator are annotated on the chart.


There are 6 components highlighted in the above chart, these have been listed below.


  • Volume Trend Line

    This is the indicator driving line and is the result of the calculations described in the previous section.


  • Fast Moving Average

    This is the fast moving average of the "Volume Trend Line". The moving average type and length can be changed in the settings.
    (Default = Exponential Moving Average, Length: 60)


  • Slow Moving Average

    This is a slower moving average of the "Volume Trend Line". The moving average type and length can be changed in the settings.  
    (Default = Hull Moving Average, Length: 3500)


  • Long Term Moving Average

    This is a long term moving average of the "Volume Trend Line". The moving average type and length can be changed in the settings.  
    (Default = Exponential Moving Average, Length: 400)


  •  Bullish Confirmation

    On the "Volume Trend Line", you will see coloured circles dotted along the line, the green circles signifying Bullish Confirmation.


  •  Bearish Confirmation

    On the "Volume Trend Line", you will see coloured circles dotted along the line, the red circles signifying Bearish Confirmation.


    The Bullish and Bearish confirmation signals are not signals to take trades, they are there to highlight the predominant direction. Seeing one confirmation signal in isolation is not that helpful, but  continued prints of confirmation in a single direction would be interesting.


There are a further two signal types that are displayed on the volume trend line, these should be seen infrequently across charts and represent potential extremes of price movement in a single direction. These signals act as a warning that price could stall in this area or potentially make a reversal. As with the other signals within this indicator they are not signals to buy or sell, they are there to provide warning alerts and should be considered with other pieces of information that you are working with.

  •  Bullish Extreme

    Plotted on the "Volume Trend Line", you will occasionally see a green coloured downwardly pointing triangle, this represents a Bullish Extreme.

    GBPAUD Hourly chart October 2022


  •  Bearish Extreme

    Plotted on the "Volume Trend Line", you will occasionally see a red coloured upward pointing triangle, this represents a Bearish Extreme.

GBPAUD Daily chart (February - April) 2023


How Does It Help?

This indicator will compliment any existing strategy and is not intended to be used standalone.

It can be used on any chart from a monthly, one minute to one second, depending on your trading strategy. Using multiple time frame analysis can help traders with a number of decisions that need to be considered before taking entries.

  • What is my market direction bias?

    This can be taken from an hourly for intraday trader or daily for swing traders. What that time frame is depends on your trading plan and objectives from the trades you take.


  • When do I take my trades?

    Again depending on the trading strategy used will dictate many aspect of this decision, although using the volume trend on a lower time frame, can help confirm breakouts, reversals and divergence.


  • How should I manage my trade?

    With any trade you should have a defined risk reward clearly defined, with stops and targets in mind before taking an entry.

    The age old saying of "cut your losses quickly and let your winner run", is easier said than mastered. Once in a trade the volume trend can be really helpful to identify trades that could be real runners and allows you to change expectations after entering the trade. Maybe you want to take some profit at the original point and let the remaining run. Maybe there is such strength you want to add to the position. Being able to assess market sentiment once in a trade can help with optimising returns.


The "Volume Trend Line", which is the driving element of this indicator, will be doing one of three things. Either it could be stair stepping in an upwards direction, identifying that we are in a bullish trend, stepping down in a bearish trend or going sideways in a ranging market.


Bullish Volume Trending Market

Here is stock VKTX, on a 1 minute chart. Trend confirmation on price action is determined by Higher Highs and Higher Lows for an uptrend or Lower Lows and Lower Highs on a downtrend. The same principle applies for the volume trend line.

In this example we first see breakout volume on the indicator with the Bullish Break volume, following that the volume trend keeps making higher highs and higher lows, confirming that this asset has short-term upwards potential. (why short-term? this is the 1 minute chart, you would want to consult the daily or hourly for a longer term perspective).

Price also is making higher highs and higher lows, which is in alignment with the indicator and known as "convergence" and is a positive signal for a continued trend.



Bearish Market

So here on Tesla (TSLA) on the 4 hour chart we can see the big sell off that started in April 2022. Where it clearly shows a downward trend, with lots of confirmation for continuation.


Ranging Markets

On this example on the AUDJPY 1 Hour chart, we can see that price is in a ranging market. By drawing trend lines on price and the indicator, it is clear to see that price and the volume trend line are both showing a ranging market. What is more interesting is the structure of the ranges.

The price range at the top of the chart is in an upward direction, whereas the volume trend in the bottom window is showing a downward range. Giving us an early indication of what to expect from this asset.



Diverging Markets

"Divergence" is a very powerful mechanism for identifying potential reversal points in price actions. There is a wealth of published information on this topic which is well worth reviewing, if this is a new principle to you.

Here again on the same AUDJPY 1 Hour chart example, points of interest have been annotated on the chart where the historical range turns into a step down to the next level within the market cycle, as predicted by the divergence in range patterns, price point up and volume pointing down.


In the above example, after identifying the divergence the next most important element is an extremely fast accelerated move down which breaks the lower level of the range, this can be seen on the right side of the bottom window and is labelled "Bearish Breaking Volume".

What is interesting here is that the volume indicator has identified the range breakout when price was still above the lower level of the range. Following that break out volume signal, if we zoom out to a 4 hour chart to see what happened next.


The range breakout was confirmed and price and the volume trend continues to show a downward direction in the market. As for entries and stops that is not the intention of this indicator and will be down to other elements in your trading strategy or in our case other indicators.

Peak Formations

Peak formation refers to the point where an asset is over extended in one direction and there is a potential of change in direction, with a wider pullback or a reversal in the higher time frame trend. These formations are often seen with double bottoms (W patterns) or double tops (M patterns). Unfortunately these patterns appear all over the chart and trading them in isolation will be challenging.

In this example of EURJPY on the 1 hour chart, we see price and the indicator in the bottom window for the first 3 weeks in March 2022. The pair is trending down which is confirmed by both price and the indicator. There are no signals points plotted on the volume trend line, until one appears on March 4th 2022.

Another one appeared on the next trading day of Monday the 7th and we now have these two signals relatively close to each other. This is interesting information, especially considering that there was no extreme signals for the previous couple of months.

Later that day the volume trend broke the previous volume level, after a W pattern was completed and a green bullish confirmation signal was printed. The following day another bullish confirmation signal is displayed to further confirm that we had made a peak formation reversal.

Please note that using the settings style tab, has enabled the change to the bearish extremes signal, changing the colour and shape to be an orange circle. Which for the purposes of this illustration is easier to see.

Another example of the same pair in August 2022, with a very similar confirmation sequence.



Stock Examples

Here on UBER on a 1 hour chart, is an example of how the indicator can be used in confluence with other trading strategies. If a trader was trading candle patterns, they may see this classic 1 hour bull flag pattern forming.


Without the volume trend analysis this looks like a good buy setup. Adding this analysis to the chart we clearly have a different view point.


Here is what subsequently happened to price and this is in a generally bullish market March 2023.



Scalping Entries

For those traders who work with super fast time frames like the 5 second or even  on a 1 second charts, the volume indicator can be used to help time entries as a part of a wider trading strategy of trading a pullback or trading support and resistance levels.

Styling options in the indicator settings enabled this different view of the indicator output, which can be extremely useful for timing entries.

Here on this hot IPO stock, LUNR from February 16th 2023, we have an extremely strong move up from $13.80 to $18.00. One aspect of this move up, is that it is doing this on extremely light volume and the predominant market sentiment on the surface seems very bearish.

This would be a clear indication not to trade this stock at this moment in time, as a trader there would be lots of emotions of FOMO (fear of missing out), seeing a stock making that kind off move on a new IPO - there is the sense that this stock will go to the moon and your not going to be involved.

As traders we have to consider the risk : reward potential. This stock could drop to $10.00 if someone put in a 50 k market sell order, as it is clear there are not the buyers to support that kind of liquidation.  

The following charts are in the 5 second time frame, until otherwise stated



So we need to wait for some confirmation of buying liquidity before we can make any plans for taking an entry, which we get in the form of a couple of strong bullish candles on the chart below. Interestingly the price breaks the previous all time high for this stock, although the volume trend at this stage does not seem strong enough to consider an entry.



At this point we should be on the lookout for further buying liquidity, ideally to break the previous high volume line, which appears in the next chart. This would be the time to take an entry based on other aspects of a trading plan.



Having now taken an entry, we can use the indicator to understand the strength of the buying liquidity and identify areas where we should be looking to take profit or close out the trade. Looking at the volume trend profile shown in the chart below, there is no reason not to hold this stock for a wider move up.



In the next chart we see the first signs of some selling pressure, as the indicator shows signs of red. This would be the area to take some profit and look at a higher time frame perspective, to get the sense of whether to hold the remaining position.



Here on the 5 minute time frame the volume trend is still looking very strong to hold the remaining position. As it turned out it was a good place to take profit as it was just under the high of the day.



Knowing when an asset is going to reverse is not easy and this stock was way too over extended and a top had to finally come. This one minute view of the indicator, shows the point where you would see that the upward liquidity was over and you were now on the backside of the move, with no reason to trade further.



Here on a 15 minute chart you can see the full extent of the move and its reversal back to the original price. It provides a clear illustration that chasing trades through FOMO or holding and hoping is not a profitable approach. Being able to time your entries and exits, where you can clearly manage risk is one of the most important elements to any traders strategy.

This is an extreme example and not something you see every day in any market. It has been included within this narrative with the hope that it clearly illustrates the risk involved in trading and being able to mitigate them, has to be at the forefront of your mind.



Key Settings

Within the indicator settings there are a number of options that are available to users. All aspects of what you can see can either be changed or turned on or off in the "Style" tab as well as changing the colours and their transparency.

The available settings on the "Inputs" tab are for fine tuning the indicator to your style of trading. This fine tuning can be applied to the moving averages that can be displayed and follow the volume trend line as well as the volume filtering process.

The most important ones that are in need of explanation are outline below:


General Settings

"What type of asset is the Algo looking at" : Available Options = "Small Caps", "Large Caps", "Futures", "Currencies" (Default Setting = Currencies)

The indicator will make an assessment of the best settings to use as defaults for the volume filtering, confirmation and extremes signals. The defaults can be changed in the following sections using the override.


"Turn on Turbo Mode" : True or False (Default Settings = True)

This setting will give the indicator volume filtering processes a boost



Signal Settings

Based on the "Asset Type" from the general settings, the indicator will make an assessment of the best settings to use by default. These can be changed by using the settings below.

"Override Default Assessment Thresholds" = True / False

"Percentage Difference to Signify Trend Confirmation" = A percentage value that will tell the indicator how to identify the volume trend line swing points used to identify bullish or bearish confirmation signals. Values from 0.1 to 10 would make the most sense. A too high setting and you will not see any confirmation points plotted. Too low and you may see too many to be useful.

"Percentage Difference to Signify Extremes" =  A percentage value that will tell the indicator how to identify the volume trend line swing points used to identify bullish or bearish confirmation signals. Values from 20 to 200 would make the most sense. A low a setting and you will see too many extreme points plotted.


Filter Settings

"Turn On Volume Assessment Filters" = True / False : The volume assessment filters are used to focus the "volume trend line" on higher volume extremes.

Based on the "Asset Type" from the general settings, the indicator will make an assessment of the best settings to use by default. These can be changed by using the settings below.

"Override Default Assessment Filters" = True / False

"Filter Volume using Setting" = The number used in this setting represents a value from 0 to 100. Zero will filter out no volume, whereas 100 would filter it all out. The default setting is 1, as there is a danger of setting this number too high and all you will see in the line chart is big steps up and down, with a plateaus in the middle. Which may be useful, although it would not be so helpful in divergence or volume line breaks.


  • Fast Moving Average

    This is the fast moving average of the "Volume Trend Line".

    "Moving Average Type" = The type of moving average calculation to be applied.

    Default = "EMA"

    Available Options: "SMA","EMA" ,"HMA" ,"SMMA (RMA)" ,"WMA" ,"VWMA"

    Moving Average Key
    SMA : Simple Moving Average
    EMA : Exponential Moving Average
    HMA : Hull Moving Average
    SMMA (RMA) :  Exponentially Weighted Moving Average (alpha = 1 / length.)
    WMA : Weighted Moving Average
    VWMA : Volume Weighted Moving Average




    "Moving Average Length" = The number of candles back into the chart used to calculate the Moving Average. (The higher the number, the slower the moving average becomes)

    Default Length = 60

    "Apply Double Smoothing" = True or False : This is an option to turn on if an extra smoothing effect to the moving average if required.



  • Slow Moving Average

    This is the slow moving average of the "Volume Trend Line".

    "Moving Average Type" = The type of moving average calculation to be applied.

    Default = "HMA"

    Available Options: "SMA","EMA" ,"HMA" ,"SMMA (RMA)" ,"WMA" ,"VWMA"
    (See moving average key)


    "Moving Average Length" = The number of candles back into the chart used to calculate the Moving Average. (The higher the number, the slower the moving average becomes)

    Default Length = 3500

    (By default we have a higher number for the slow length compared to the long term length in the next setting. This is because using the Hull Moving Average, is an accelerated moving average that needs higher values to slow it down. If you were to change this to say an EMA, then you would need to change the length to something like 200, to put this slower moving average in context with the others).



  • Long Term Moving Average

    This is a long term moving average of the "Volume Trend Line".

    "Moving Average Type" = The type of moving average calculation to be applied.

    Default = "EMA"

    Available Options: "SMA","EMA" ,"HMA" ,"SMMA (RMA)" ,"WMA" ,"VWMA"
    (See moving average key)


    "Moving Average Length" = The number of candles back into the chart used to calculate the Moving Average. (The higher the number, the slower the moving average becomes)

    Default Length = 400

    "Apply Double Smoothing" = True or False : This is an option to turn on if an extra smoothing effect to the moving average if required.


    Finally

    We greatly appreciate the support and feedback from the Trading View community, and we are dedicated to continuing to improve our indicators with your support.

    We want to help you manage risk, and that's why we emphasise that trading is risky and any technology used to support our trading decisions is based on information from the past. We encourage traders to take responsibility for their trading businesses and always prioritise risk management.

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