Spot vs Leverage — Lite (QQQ/NQ)

The indicator works like a thermometer for the quality of a market move.

Score > +20 → “Spot dominant”
👉 The rise (or price stability) is supported by real buying:

strong cash/ETF/equity inflows,

positive price–volume correlation,

low or negative basis (futures aren’t artificially pulling price up).
→ This is a healthy, structurally solid rally.

Score < −20 → “Leverage dominant”
👉 The move is mostly driven by leverage:

overbought futures,

options speculation,

weak spot volume.
→ The trend is fragile — it can collapse quickly if leveraged positions unwind (deleverage, inverse short squeeze, etc.).

Zone between −20 and +20 → Neutral / mixed
→ The market is balanced — neither purely “air” nor purely “cash.”