Advanced Technical Range and Expectancy Estimator [SS]

30 พ.ย. 2023

Hello everyone,

This indicator is a from of momentum based probability modelling. It is derived from my own approaches to probability modelling but just simplified a bit.

How it works:

The indicator looks at various technical, including stochastics, RSI, MFI and Z-Score, to determine the likely sentiment. All of these, with the exception of Z-Score, are momentum based indicators and can alert us to likely sentiment. However, instead of us making the subjective determination ourselves as to whether the RSI or MFI or Stochastics are bullish, the indicator will look at previous instances of these occurrences, and tally the bullish and bearish follow throughs that happened. It will also calculate the average target price that was hit, under similar conditions, on the same timeframe.

The Z-Score is your "tie breaker". It is not a momentum based indicator and measures something a little different (the standard deviation and over-extension of the stock). For this reason, it provides an alternative assessment and tends to be a bit more reliable in times of low momentum.

Back-test Results:

The indicator back-tests itself over the previous 100 candles. I have limited it to 100 candles for pragmatic considerations (it has to back-test each technical individually and increasing the BT length will slow and potentially error out the indicator) as well as accuracy considerations.
One thing I have noticed in my years of trying to crack the code and develop probability models for tickers, is historical accuracy doesn't always matter because sentiment is always changing. You need to see what it has done over the most recent 100 to 200 candles.

There are two back-test windows, one for the price targets and the other for the sentiment accuracy. The most effective/most accurate will highlight green, the least effective/least accurate will highlight red:



In the image above, you can see that the most accurate predictor of sentiment is Z-Score, with a 90.32% accuracy rate over the past 100 candles.
The most accurate predictor of price is MFI, with a 60% (for bull targets) and 42% (for bear targets)accuracy rate.

Anchoring Points:

The indicator permits you to anchor by two points. The default setting is anchoring by previous candle. If you plan to use this as an oscillator, to see the current prediction for the current candle you are viewing, then you will need to leave this default setting. It will pull the data from the previous candle and give you the data for the current candle you are on.

If you are assess the likely sentiment for the next day after the day has closed off, you will want to anchor by current candle. This will take the current technicals that the day has closed off with and run the assessment for you.

Customizability

You can customize the technicals by source and length of assessment.
They are all defaulted to the traditional settings of these indicators, but if you want to customize your model to try and improve or enhance accuracy in one way or another, you are free and able to do so!
I do suggest leaving the defaults as they seem to work particular well :-).

Thresholds

Thresholds are the tolerance levels that we permit for our technical search range. If you want them to be exactly identical, then you can set it to 0. If you want it to be extremely similar, you can set it to 0.01. This will hone in on the ranges you are interest in and you can see how it affects your accuracy by reviewing the results in the back-test tables.

Keep Static Colour Option

I want to make a quick note on the "Keep Static Colour" option that is in your settings menu.
The primary table that shows you the probability and price targets change colours based on the accuracy of the assessment. This is so, if you are using a mobile device or smaller screen and can't have the back-test results open at the same time, you can see still which are the most reliable results. However, if you have the back-test tables open and you find these colour changes too distracted, you can toggle on the "Keep Static Colour" and it will resort the colour of the table to a solid white:



Show Technicals

The indicator can show you the current technical values if you are using it in place of an oscillator. Its less pivotal as its making the assessment for you, but just for your reference if you want to see what the current MFI, Z-Score or Stochastics etc. are, you have that option as well.

All Timeframes Permitted
You can view Weekly, Monthly, Hourly, 5 minute, 1 minute, its all supported!

That's the indicator in a nutshell.

Hope you enjoy and leave your questions below.
Safe trades everyone!