Hurst Dual-Channel + ECDF Early Reentry (Single Trigger)

Hello,
This indicator can be useful during ranging market phases, especially on short timeframes such as 5 minutes, within a statistically contrarian approach.
It combines two quantitative methodologies:
– Hurst-type adaptive channels, which measure short- and medium-term price deviations using the ATR (Average True Range);
– an Empirical Cumulative Distribution Function (ECDF), which locates the current price between its recent extremes (0 corresponding to the lower bound, 1 to the upper bound).
The goal is to identify relative overbought and oversold zones, where the price exceeds the channels and then begins to revert toward its statistical mean.
The indicator does not issue trading recommendations: it merely highlights specific statistical conditions for research and analytical purposes.
The “BUY” and “SELL” labels indicate such technical configurations:
– ECDF < 0.2 with price returning above the lower channels → bullish reentry.
– ECDF > 0.9 with price returning below the upper channels → bearish reentry.
The parameters (channel periods, ECDF window, smoothing) allow you to fine-tune the sensitivity of the analysis according to instrument volatility or chosen timeframe.

🟩 Buy Signal (BUY)
A buy signal is triggered when a strong downside deviation pushes the price below both channels, followed by a gradual reentry inside the bands.
More precisely:
– The low is below both channels (low < scb and low < mcb).
– The ECDF crosses back above 0.19 (exit from oversold).
– Both events occur within the last six bars.
– The price moves back above the lower channel (high > scb).
– No previous long signal is active.
This configuration represents a statistical reentry to the mean after an excessive drop.

🟥 Sell Signal (SELL)
Conversely, a sell signal appears when a strong upside deviation pushes the price above both channels, followed by a pullback below them:
– The high exceeds both channels (high > sct and high > mct).
– The ECDF crosses below 0.9 (exit from overbought).
– Both events occur within the last six bars.
– The price falls back below the upper channel (low < sct).
– No previous short signal is active.
This reflects a bearish reentry following a statistical overextension.

⚙️ Operating Logic
Each signal is triggered only once per cycle thanks to the variables triggered_long and triggered_short, preventing duplicates until a new extreme occurs.
The tool is designed for visual analysis and pattern research, not for automated execution.

🔍 ECDF Principle and Calculation
The ECDF is a non-parametric measure of a value’s position within its recent distribution:
ECDF(X)=number of values ≤XNECDF(X) = \frac{\text{number of values } \le X}{N}ECDF(X)=Nnumber of values ≤X​
It expresses the empirical proportion of observations below the current value.
Example:
If, among the last 100 observations, 85 are below the current price, then
ECDF=0.85ECDF = 0.85ECDF=0.85
→ The price is at the 85th percentile, statistically high relative to recent history.
Strengths: robust, model-free, well-suited to asymmetric or non-normal market regimes.
Limitations: it does not measure amplitude and depends on the selected window size.

🌊 Intuitive Analogy: The River and the Gauge
Imagine a river with a depth gauge:
– The Z-Score tells you how many meters above the average level the water currently stands.
– The ECDF tells you in how many past cases the water level was lower than it is now.
The Z-Score assumes the river always follows the same symmetrical pattern.
The ECDF simply observes reality — adapting naturally, even when the current becomes unpredictable.

Final note:
This indicator is designed for visual and statistical exploration of price behavior.
The signals represent statistical states, not trade instructions.
Entering long or short positions based on them is entirely at your own discretion and risk.