Fed Rate Probability

Fed Rate Probability – Simple & Clean v2.0
Real-time composite score (0–100) for the next Fed move: Rate Cut, Hike or Hold

Overview
A clean, all-in-one indicator that combines the most reliable market signals into two easy-to-read lines:
• Red line → Probability of RATE CUT
• Blue line → Probability of RATE HIKE
• Hold score = 100 – max(cut, hike)
The dominant signal (CUT / HOLD / HIKE) is highlighted in the information table.

Key Features

• Automatic daily data from FRED (DFF, 3M/1M/2Y/10Y yields)
  
• Smart fallback to TradingView native symbols (US01MY, US03MY, US02Y, US10Y) when FRED is unavailable
  
• Manual CME FedWatch probability override (perfect for weekends/holidays)
  
• Historical Fed rate cut/hike markers with background shading and labels
  
• Colored probability zones + customizable threshold lines
  
• Threshold-crossing labels and full alert suite
  
• Special alert on 2Y-10Y yield curve un-inversion (strong historical precursor to rate cuts)
  
• Detailed summary table with current spreads, scores and dominant signal
  
• Fully customizable: enable/disable each component, adjust weights indirectly via toggles, change smoothing, thresholds, colors, etc.
  

Score Composition (0–100 points)

• T-bills vs Fed Funds spread – max 50 pts (with persistence & 1M confirmation bonus)
  
• 2-Year Treasury vs Fed Funds spread – max 30 pts (or direct CME probability input)
  
• 2Y-10Y yield curve behavior – max 20 pts (inversion depth + large bonus on steepening after un-inversion)
  

Interpretation

0–40 → Low probability
40–60 → Moderate
60–75 → High
75–100 → Very High / Almost certain

Why this indicator?
Instead of checking FRED, CME FedWatch, yield curves and T-bill spreads separately, get everything in one pane with a clear, smoothed composite score and instant alerts when the market starts pricing a Fed move aggressively.

Disclaimer
This is a decision-support tool based on historical relationships and current market pricing. It is not financial advice and past performance is no guarantee of future results.

Enjoy and trade safe! 🚀