10-2 Year Treasury Yield Spread by zdmre

Long-term bond yield reflects inflation. Short-term bond yields are tools used to predict Fed's interest rate policy. Spread between the two represents four cycles of an economy.

1. Growth
Short-term yield rises as interest rates rise. Spread narrows.

2. Slow growth
Central bank raises interest rates faster and short-term yield exceeds long-term yield. Spread turns negative.

3. Recession
High interest rates lead to more defaults. Inflation caps consumption. Central bank lowers interest rate to stimulate the economy and short-term yield falls. Spread widens.

4. Recovery
Central bank continues easing. Spread remains wide and yield curve remains steep.

0 = Recession Risk
2.6 = Recovery Plan

DYOR

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• 10y-3y
  10y-5y
  30y-2y
  30y-5y