Apeiron Fair Value Bands Pro

3 ก.ย. 2023

WHAT IS IT

The Apeiron Fair Value Bands Pro is an indicator that estimates the fair value area of an asset and provides levels of interest and likely reaction. It was created to determine fair value. Knowing fair value allows traders and investors to determine when an asset is at a premium or at a discount, which allows them to make more informed decisions about when to buy or sell. Fair value is constantly changing, and sometimes waiting for it to develop each session or month can lead to missed opportunities. Therefore, it is useful to have an estimate of fair value at all times.

HOW DOES IT WORK?

The simplest way to have a constant estimation of fair value could probably be a Moving Average. By averaging previous prices, we get the average price which ideally reflects where most traders have been interested in participating in the market. This isn’t necessarily the most accurate fair value estimation you can get, however using different types of moving averages and combining them allows for a better estimation of the FV. It is also important to consider that price is always moving away and back into the MA, so in order to determine FV, we must allow an area for price to move within which we can consider the FVA. By taking into account volatility, previous relevant levels and the MA, the Apeiron Bands determine a FVA, where in theory price should stay most of the time.



According to the normal distribution, the price should stay within 1 standard deviation (SD) around 68% of the time and within 2 SD around 95% of the time during range periods (when data is most symmetrical). In the case of the Apeiron Bands, based on backtest data, the price tends to stay within 1 FVA around 75% of the time, within 2 FVA around 90% of the time during strong trends, around 80% and 95% correspondingly during weak trends, and >85% and >95% during ranges.

Additionally, based on backtesting data, pivots occur on average at around 1 FVA ±0.05 (This does not necessarily mean that most pivots occur at 1 FVA, however, the fact the average is 1±0.05 implies there is relevance to this level).

Finally, in order to account for volatility and the slight differences between symbols, a customizable tolerance ribbon is added to the moving average (MA) and each plotted band.
This data remains the same throughout all timeframes and types of market (tested on cryptocurrencies, forex pairs, stocks, indices and futures)

Examples of the time spent within the FVAs:







Examples of average pivot FVA :






HOW TO USE IT?

Identify potential reversal levels at premium and discount prices:

Knowing that price stays within 1 FVA the majority of time and inside 2 FVA most of the time, as well that in average pivots occur around 1 FVA, it can be inferred that both the Bands representing 1 & 2 FVA (B1 & B2) work as potential reversal levels as shown in the examples. This can be very good in confluence with other strategies to spot trade entries. If this is done taking into account if the asset is at a premium or discount allows for a higher probability of being on the right side of the market.




For example, during an uptrend price sometimes goes below it’s MA only to then continue up. In this particular case, the bands would provide an ideal entry at a discount to ride the uptrend.



During ranges, the bands can be used to identify potential pivots for each move up and down, and because of their adaptive nature they can be a great confluence to which horizontal levels are more likely to act as support and resistance.




For intraday traders, the bands can help them identify assets at one of the extremes and potentially even inside one of the bands, indicating that price is likely to reverse from there. Then they can use LTF to find ideal entries or catch the trend with the bands.

For swing traders and investors, using the bands can be a good way to scan different assets to find extended prices to either side and potential entry levels



Identify emerging trends:

Sometimes price will have a minimum reaction to the bands or no reaction at all. Knowing that price spends most of the time inside the bands, the fact that it breaks out of the FVA indicates that a new trend is likely to begin on that particular TF and price will try to establish a new FVA. Once there is a sustained PA outside the bands, a new trend can be assumed (Deviations happen as well, so it is very important to be aware of higher TF as well).



Other times, price will start sliding between B1 and B2, slowly displacing the MA. This can also be an indication for the start of a trend.



Identify exhaustions (potential tops & bottoms):

I call exhaustions to scenarios when price keeps going up/down but it fails to keep pushing the FVA with it. This indicates weakness in the trend and that a new FVA is being established. This often leads to a potential reversal or correction that marks the top or bottom of a move. Not only that, but when the new FVA is established price tends to go and test the other side of the FVA. Identifying exhaustions and being patient for them to form can potentially provide a great entry and RR ratio.

Exhaustions also happen after strong rallies or crashes, and in these cases it is advised to wait for price to re-enter its FVA, providing more clarity and often even better entries.

Exhaustions appear in all timeframes and symbols, however they can take some time to develop and it is important to be patient with them. And as always, it is highly recommended to also check for confluence on different TF.


8H Bands:


4H Bands:



Additional Features:

- Additional Bands:
The Apeiron Fair Value Bands can plot up to 4 Bands. Each fully customizable. The preset and suggested use is to have B1 & B2 and add thinner aid bands B0.5 & B1.5 which represent the middle of 1 & 2 FVA. These are not the main levels of interest but they can prove useful as support and resistance many times. Besides using mid levels, using fib values (0.618 & 1.618) can work even better on some assets and give better reactions.

NATGAS 1H Bands - Fib Mids:


The extra bands can also be used for FVA 3 and FVA 4, which can be useful during extremely volatile periods or on very LTF



- Multi Timeframe & precision:
The bands work on very low TF as well as High TF. Sometimes data can be limited on HTF and the bands will not have enough to be calculated and many LTF are very volatile and don’t work as well. In these scenarios, the bands have a setting called “Precision” under the preferences section that allows the user to decrease or increase the amount of data taken into account. This allows for optimization on any TF and even on any symbol.

GOLD 1min Bands:


EURUSD 5D Bands:


VIX 1H Bands:


- Multi Bands Confluence:

Combining 2 different length FV bands can be very useful to find confluence levels and spot trends and reversals earlier. For example, on the 15 min TF, using a 50 MA with only 1 FVA at the same time as a 200 MA with all Band can be ideal to keep track of short term moves and their micro-trends while always considering the longer trend which might be different that the short term one. As well, having MTF band confluence can indicate that a level is more likely to signal a reversal if reached.



- Multi Timeframe Confluence:
One of the best ways to use the bands is by using it in confluence with itself in other TFs, when price moves sharply into a confluent level given by multiple TFs’ Bands, it is more likely for price to find support and resistance and/or reverse there. Ex. 5 Min B2, 15 Min B1.5 & 30 Min B1, if price reaches this confluent level and shows weakness, this is likely a short term reversal level.

NATGAS MTF Bands:



How to set it up and customize it: (Explain how they are important)

- The MA Lab:

The Apeiron Bands utilizes a MA Lab to generate the most customizable MAs possible. It allows combining up to 3 different MAs, where each MA can be single, double or triple (same process as creating a DEMA or TEMA). As well each MA can be given more or less weight in the calculation of the final MA. Besides it’s features, the MA Lab allows the user to select only one MA and stick to basic settings and MA types if preferred.

When to use the MA Lab:
If you wanted a reactive MA (EMA) which was also volume weighted, you can then combine it with a VWMA and get a VW-EMA.
If you want a more reactive VWMA you can double or triple it. Then in order to make it smoother you combine it with a SMMA. Finally maybe you want to use it to follow trends closely so you also combine it with a HMA to take momentum into consideration.




- Presets:
The multiplier for each band, the width of each tolerance ribbon and the individual colors of each band can all be individually selected. However, to make the user's experience as smooth as possible, FVA multipliers, Ribbon width and colors can be preset and modified all at the same time with the most basic and ideal settings. This allows for quick customization options as well as personalized detailed custom settings.

- Show only Lower or Upper bands:
This setting is meant for scouting for discounts and premiums across the board. By only showing bands on one side it cleans up the chart and makes it easier to spot important levels on only one side of the price. This can be very useful when looking for swing opportunities or when following a particular trend to only focus on potential entries for it.

MATIC 4H Bands showing only bottom bands:


AMZN 1D Bands showing only bottom bands:



Settings used in indicator preview:

- Custom MA: 200 EMA/200 WMA/200 SMMA (200 EWSMMA)
- Band 1: 0.5 - Ribbon Width: 5 - Color: Blue
- Band 2: 1 - Ribbon Width: 10 - Color: Green
- Band 3: 1.5 - Ribbon Width: 5 - Color: Blue
- Band 4: 2 - Ribbon Width: 10 - Color: Red


Disclaimer:

The bands CAN but are NOT meant to be used as a standalone indicator. Previous performance does not guarantee future performance. The bands are an analytical tool, not a signal indicator. While certain scenarios can be interpreted as a signal, never follow them blindly and always use them in confluence with other analysis, systems or indicators.