Esqvair's Neural Reversal Probability Indicator

9 เม.ย. 2022

Introduction

Esqvair's Neural Reversal Probability Indicator is the indicator that shows probability of reversal.

Warning: This script should only be used on 1 minute chart.

How to use

When a signal appears (by default it is a green bar), a reversal should be expected.
The signal appears when the indicator value >= Threshold.
If you want more signals, you must lower the threshold, if less, you must increase the threshold.
For some assets, like Forex pairs, you have to optimize the threshold yourself, but for most stocks, the default threshold works well.
How well a threshold fits an asset depends on the volatility of the asset.
For most assets, the indicator ranges from 35 to 75.

Settings

Smoothing - The default is 1, which means no smoothing. Indicator smoothing by SMA.
Threshold - default 71.0 is responsible for the occurrence of signals, read "How to use" part to learn more

The Indicator

This indicator is a pre-trained neural network that was trained outside of TradingView and then its structure and weights values ​​were converted to PineScript.
Warning: A neural network is a black box in the sense that although it can approximate any function, studying its structure will not give you any idea about the structure of the function being approximated.

Possible questions
Why does the indicator value most time range from 35 to 75 when the probability should ranges from 0 to 100?
-Due to some randomness in the markets, a neural network can never be 100% sure.
What data was used to train the neural network?
-This was BTCUSD 1 minute chart data from 02/05/2020 to 02/05/2022.
Where did you train the neural network and convert it to PineScript?
-I used a programming language that I know.