RV − IV Spread Alert (SPY vs VIX)

Realized vs Implied Volatility Spread (RV − IV) for the S&P 500 / SPY.

Plots the daily difference between 30-day realized volatility (SPY) and implied volatility (VIX) in basis points.

Key insight from the research: when the spread turns and stays above ≈ +50 bps, forward returns historically degrade and volatility of returns rises sharply — a useful early-warning regime flag.

Features:
- Clean daily plot of RV − IV in bps
- Horizontal lines at 0, −50 bps and +50 bps
- Red background when spread > +50 bps
- Built-in alert condition that fires once per bar close when spread closes above +50 bps
- Optional “all-clear” alert when it drops back below

Use on SPY or ES1! daily chart. Perfect for anyone wanting a simple notification when the market enters the “risk-on” volatility regime highlighted by Machina Quanta and the original Bali & Hovakimian (2007) paper.