BTC - ALSI: Altcoin Season Index (Dynamic Eras)

Title: BTC - ALSI: Altcoin Season Index (Dynamic Eras)

Overview & Philosophy
The Altcoin Season Index (ALSI) is a quantitative tool designed to answer the most critical question in crypto capital rotation: "Is it time to hold Bitcoin, or is it time to take risks on Altcoins?"

Most "Altseason" indicators suffer from Survivor Bias or Obsolescence. They either track a static list of coins that includes "dead" assets from previous cycles (ghosts of 2017), or they break completely when major tokens collapse (like LUNA or FTT).

This indicator solves this by using a Time-Varying Basket. The indicator automatically adjusts its reference list of Top 20 coins based on historical eras. This ensures the index tracks the winners of the moment—capturing the DeFi summer of 2020, the NFT craze of 2021, and the AI/Meme narratives of 2024/2025.

Methodology
The indicator calculates the percentage of the Top 20 Altcoins that are outperforming Bitcoin over a rolling window (Default: 90 Days).

• The "Win" Count: For every major Altcoin performing better than BTC, the index adds a point.
  
• Dynamic Eras: The basket of coins changes depending on the date:
  

• 2020 Era (DeFi Summer): Tracks the "Blue Chips" of the DeFi revolution like UNI, LINK, DOT, and early movers like VET and FIL.
  
• 2021 Era (Layer 1 Wars): Tracks the explosion of alternative smart contract platforms, adding winners like SOL, AVAX, MATIC, and ALGO.
  
• 2022 Era (The Survivors): Filters for resilience during the Bear Market, solidifying the status of established assets like SHIB and ATOM.
  
• 2023 Era (Infrastructure & Scale): Captures the rise of "Next-Gen" tech leading into the pre-halving year, introducing TON, APT (Aptos), and ARB (Arbitrum).
  
• 2024/25 Era (AI & Speed): Tracks the current Super-Cycle leaders, focusing on the AI narrative (TAO, RNDR), High-Performance L1s (SUI), and modern Memes (PEPE).
  

Chart Analysis & Strategy ( The "Alpha" )
As seen in the chart above, there is a strong correlation between ALSI Peaks and local tops in TOTAL3 (The Crypto Market Cap excluding BTC & ETH).

• The Entry (Rotation): When the indicator rises above the neutral 50 line, it signals that capital is beginning to rotate out of Bitcoin and into Altcoins. This has historically been a strong confirmation signal to increase exposure to high-beta assets.
  

• The Exit (Saturation): When the indicator hits 100 (or sustains in the Red Zone > 75), it means every single Altcoin is beating Bitcoin. Historically, this extreme exuberance often marks a local top in the TOTAL3 chart. This is the zone where smart money typically sells into strength, rather than opening new positions.
  

How to Read the Visuals
🚀 Altcoin Season (Red Zone > 75): Strong Altcoin dominance. The market is "Risk On."
🛡️ Bitcoin Season (Blue Zone < 25): Bitcoin dominance. Alts are bleeding against BTC. Historically, this is a defensive zone to hold BTC or Stablecoins.

Data Dashboard: A status table in the bottom-right corner displays the live Index Value, current Regime, and a System Check to ensure all 20 data feeds are active.

Settings

• Lookback Period: Default 90 Days. Lowering this (e.g., to 30) makes the index faster but noisier.
  
• Thresholds: Adjustable zones for Altcoin Season (Default: 75) and Bitcoin Season (Default: 25).
  

Credits & Attribution
This open-source indicator is built on the shoulders of giants. I acknowledge the original creators of the concept and the pioneers of its implementation on TradingView:

• Original Concept: BlockchainCenter.net. - They established the industry standard definition: 75% of the Top 50 coins outperforming Bitcoin over 90 days = Altseason..
  

• TradingView Implementation: Adam_Nguyen - He implemented the "Dynamic Era" logic (updating the coin list annually) on TradingView. Our code structure for the time-based switching is inspired by his methodology. See also his implementation in the chart. (Altcoin Season Index - Adam).
  

Comparison: Why use ALSI | RM?
While inspired by the above, ALSI introduces three key improvements:

• Open Source: Unlike other popular TradingView versions (which are closed-source), this script is fully transparent. You can see exactly which coins are triggering the signal.
  
• Sanitized History (Anti-Fragile): Historical Top 20 snapshots are not blindly used. "Dead" coins (like LUNA and FTT) from previous eras are manually filtered out. A raw index would crash during the Terra/FTX collapses, giving a false "Bitcoin Season" signal purely due to bad actors. The curated list preserves the integrity of the market structure signal.
  
• Narrative Relevance: The 2024/25 basket was updated to include TAO (Bittensor) and RNDR, ensuring the index captures the dominant AI narrative, rather than tracking fading assets from the previous cycle.
  
• You can compare the ALSI indicator with other available tradingview indicators in the chart: Different indicators for the same idea are shown in the 3 Pane window below the BTC and Total3 chart, whereas ALSI is the top pane indicator.
  

Important Note on Coin Selection Baskets are highly curated: Dead/irrelevant coins (FTT, LUNA, BSV) are excluded for clean signals. This prevents historical breaks and ensures Era T5 captures current narratives (AI, Memes) via TAO/RNDR. See above. Users are free to adjust the source code to test their own baskets.

Disclaimer
This script is for research and educational purposes only. Past correlations between ALSI and TOTAL3 do not guarantee future results. Market regimes can change, and "Altseasons" can be cut short by macro events.

Tags
bitcoin, btc, altseason, dominance, total3, rotation, cycle, index, alsi, Rob Maths