$XYZ will trade > $100

5 วันที่ผ่านมา

- Say good bye to double digit for XYZ
- This company is innovating better than other fintech.
- Visionary ideas for revolutionizing the finance.
- has capped number of employees @ 12k. Jack has shown financial discipline at XYZ as compared to TWTR
- GAAP EPS is growing for the next 3 years.


Fundamental wise:

Year | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 |
EPS | 1.91 | 2.61 | 3.65 | 4.47 |
EPS growth% | 759% | 36% | 39% | 22.46% |
Bear Case (p/e 25 ) | $47.75 | $65.25 | $91.25 | $111.75 |
Base case ( p/e 30) | $57.3 | $78.3 | $109.5 | $134.1 |
Bull Case (p/e 35) | $66.85 | $91.35 | $127.75 | $156.45 |

- Stocks often are forward looking. I believe this year we should trade at $91-$127 range.
- Anything below $78 is accumulation zone for me.

5 วันที่ผ่านมา

บันทึก

This is pure fundamentals based numbers which support higher stock price. When it comes to fear and euphoria stocks do trade at discounts and premiums. But knowing the intrinsic value helps to go heavy in the investments because price can undercut and overshoot but is gravitated towards its intrinsic value which is dictated by earnings.

เมื่อวานซืน

บันทึก

- XYZ is arguably one of the best innovative fintech in US and tech talent in fintech space.
- Solid product market fit along with nice bets on the future.

Some bets which could bring in millions in revenue in the future which are often discounted by analysts.
- Tidal has potential to disrupt music industry. It offers over 110 million songs in HiFi sound quality, aiming to provide an artist-first, fan-centered experience.
- Proto is a suite of bitcoin mining products and services dedicated to decentralizing bitcoin mining.


Technicals:
- It appears that XYZ is completing wave 4 according to eliott wave and will start wave 5.
- Fibonacci Projection for Wave 5 Target

- Wave 1 Length: ~ $38 → $80 (approx. $42 move)
- Wave 2 Pullback: Consolidation near $65-$70
- Wave 3 Extension (Current Move): Has already touched $88
- Wave 4 (Potential correction): Likely support around $75-$78
- Wave 5 Target Calculation:
- 100% extension: $115 - $120
- 161.8% extension: $135 - $140

เมื่อวาน

บันทึก

XYZ reported earning today, Algos sold the stock on the headline as usual rev miss and eps miss.

Attended Earning call, it appears that there's lot of product launches coming this year. 2024 was the foundational year for the company where they laid down the foundation for long term success.

- There is a lot of things algos and many analyst will miss out

1) Cash App Borrow’s Scaling and Synergy with Afterpay
2) Square’s Expansion into “Neighborhood Networks”
3) Bitcoin and Open-Source Financial Infrastructure:
- Block’s Bitkey non-custodial wallet and Proto open Bitcoin mining system are unique in the fintech space.

เมื่อวาน

บันทึก

I will be looking to BUY the dip at XYZ .

- 2024 EPS was 3.37 ; EPS growth % -> 87%

Fair forward multiple ideally 40; With pessimism at least deserve 20

Bottom should be -> 20 x 3.37 = $67.4

- 2025 EPS projected 4.53 ; EPS growth % -> 27.35%
Fair forward multiple ideally 30; With pessimism at least deserve 20

Fair Stock value : 4.53 x 20 = $90.6