$BTC #BTCUSD - New market-structure - Day Trader Explains

18 พ.ย. 2018

Hello Lads and Ladies,

after taking a few day off for the evaluation of the recent drop, I warmly welcome you back to the TJ's TA Session.

I personally like swing trading most, hence my TA is once again going to be for a swing trader and from a swing traders perspective.

The recent drop of Bitcoin has been a wake up call for all traders yawning from too less volatility.

We have dropped from 6296 to 5181 within a very short period of time. Breaking all major supports and even the yearly lows. Our new support is 5181, where as we still need to confirm/re-test our previous supports as a form of resistance before being able to say certainly that we will stay in these deep regions.

With exactly this last swing we have created a new important low fo this year, which can also be connect to the previous yearly low at 5743.
Connecting the yearly lows and the high in between these lows, leaves us with a new market structure for Bitcoin.
This market structure is indicated in red. A pennant pointing down after a downtrend, is not the most bullish scenario one might have or see.
Nevertheless, we still have a lot of room for swinging Bitcoin in between this peanut and I am pretty sure that we will be going to see some nice pumps and moves where we can short the top of the channel and long the bottom of it. While taking profits at the support and resistance lines.

"Important S/R" lines -> 5100 - 5181 - 5250 - 5350 - 5400 - 5500 - 5640 - 5743 - 5850 - 6070 - 6120 - 6220
"Most important S/R" lines (for now) -> 5181 - 5400 - 5640 - 5743 - 6070

These lines and numbers are going to be our friends for the next days, weeks, most likely even months. So do not get overhyped now.

The most likely scenario that I see here is again a bullish three-drive pattern that I have indicated with the green points of interest. At the lowest and last point we would and should have a bigger bounce, especially since we have a lot of positive and nice news upcoming from Asia in March 2019, YET this might be just another trap continuing us to drop towards 3000$ up until November of 2019 (funny enough our faketoshi is planning of publishing the SegWit "secrets" (bugs) at that time...).

BEWARE!!! These points of interest, as you might see are mostly points where the trendiness cross over with the horizontal lines. NORMALLY, this would be a bullish area and would mean at least a little to middle bounce at that point. YET, as you have seen in this last drop here, we have dropped EXACTLY on one of these points of interest. WHY? Because it was the easiest hurdle to overcome and have the biggest group of people to hit Stop Losses, Liquidate and start shorting at market. This point was an almost guaranteed win for the bearish whales.

If you look at my drawing, I am kind of expecting this, but not at the first two points of interest, but at the very last one, where again a lot of people will see this structure that we are seeing right now and then it will be an easy game to hit through the very "last standing" support before heading down to 3550 and ultimately to 3029. I have another chart which shows ALL information you need to know behind the scenes of Bitcoin but obviously it is only for our paid members (links).

SO WHAT TO DO NOW?!?
I would take a look at the indicators, as we can see, RSI is at a very significant LOW. The Stochastic RSI is pretty low but starting to turn slowly again. The momentum of the drop is not increasing yet and we are due to FOMO in a "no trade zone" meaning, if you have a short from the 6296 open, leave it open but do not open a new one. This is indicating a SOON change in SHORT-TERM trend.

Nevertheless, you have to be prepared, as I am as well for another re-test of the bottom, maybe even of a historical support/resistance at 5100, creating bullish divergence and indicating a safe change in trend as well as a buying opportunity.

The trade set up is therefore right now LONG with staggers down to 5400 and should 5400 break a few dollars below, the Stop Loss that turns into a short immediately, with already pre-set targets at the previously mentioned "Important S/R" lines.

I will as well be looking to reverse the current LONG into a SHORT at the higher "Most important S/R" lines. The best (also indicated point of interest) would be the low 6000 at 6070/6120 for a perfect short down to 5100.



As mentioned before, there is a second and a little more mind blowing part attached to it, which is going to be published ONLY my private groups, so make sure to check them out as well.

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Cheers, TJ