Bitcoin Daily Update (day 294)

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Consensio: S MA > P > M MA > bearish L MA = 5% scale out. Now 57% entered.

Patterns: Symmetrical triangle
Horizontals: S: $3,750 | R: $3,780
Trendline: Still inside symmetrical triangle
Parabolic SAR: $4,191
BTCUSDSHORTS: Still in a bear flag back under the trendline. When squeeze?
Funding Rates: Longs will receive 0.0012%
Futures Curve: Backwardation
TD’ Sequential: Price flip
Ichimoku Cloud: Just noticed that the bottom of the cloud is right in line with the SAR.
Average Directional Index: Most time it has spent under 10 since the dreaded descending triangle. Starting to get flashbacks!
Price Action: 24h: -0.2% (can’t consider that ‘action’) 14d: -7.3% 30d: -4.4%
Bollinger Bands: Still testing MA
Relative Strength Index: Failed to stay > 50 for long
Stochastic Oscillator: Tried crossing bullish, but back in a firmly bearish setup.

Summary: This post is titled long, because I hold a long. I barely feel comfortable holding onto it after today's action and I would not open a new position right now until the symmetrical triangle breaks down. There is not much time left for the bulls to make a move in order to turn up the 33 MA and support the bottom of the symmetrical triangle. If that breaks down with a daily close below then I expect it to get ugly fast and will be prepared to exit longs and go short.

As the matter of fact I set market stop loss orders for my BTC and Ripple longs because going through the daily update made me slightly afraid of how far the price could move before the daily candle closes.

Even if we do break up then there is nothing but resistance from $4,100 - $4,800. Nevertheless the 3 and 9 MA’s are still trending bullish and the price remains above the 33 MA. Therefore I will continue to hold my small long, however I am seriously reconsidering adding if we break up, I will be more concerned about trailing my stop / managing the risk.