BTC - Beautiful SHORT. Time for Bulls to step in

28 ธ.ค. 2018

Previous Trades?
Christmas didn't allow me to ride that SHORT properly. Made multiple small SHORTs as I was unable to look at the charts all the time. This is what I mentioned in my previous Idea.
Opening a small SHORT position right now at low leverage and keeping more entries at 4150, 4280, 4420.
I'll be taking profit around 3870, 3730, 3670, 3550, 3470, 3370

What's happening?
The reason I say it's time for Bulls to step in is that if bulls don't step in right now, we'll break this big support area and head towards new lows.
I'm betting on Bulls this time after that beautiful SHORT from 4200.
You should have closed a majority of your SHORT here.
I would suggest letting a portion of it run.
Almost everyone I know in crypto space is seeing this massive Inverse HnS.

All of my students in my private group are seeing this IHnS. Trading it should be a good idea right? Since, so many people are looking at it.
Maybe not such a great idea.
If this iHnS is in play, once the neckline breaks (4150 zone), there is little to no resistance between 4400 and 5000. Hence, a LONG position could prove to be extremely profitable. More profitable than a SHORT here to 2900-3000.
This makes me think, if I was a Giant Whale and I wanted to dump my BTCs, wouldn't this be a perfect opportunity for me to empty my bags? Considering the orderbook would be filled with buy orders.
Well, that's the negative me. A break below 3430 will invalidate the iHnS dreams for me and that is when I'll look for a SHORT entry. Not before that.
The positive side of me thinks, even Bears would want it to go up from here, so that they can get a higher entry. Profit from 3600-2900 is obviously too small as compared to profits bears can make from a 4.4k or 5k Short.
You can see an uptrend line. This line has been respected for now, but I think, it won't be for long. In a couple of hours, it'll out of the trend and invite break out traders, retail traders like myself to SHORT it to Low 3500s or High 3400s.

Fibs Theory
A drop to 3540 will confirm a 61.8% retracement of the uptrend.
Trend based fib extension using previous high of 4420, this years low 3122 and current high of 4243, tells us that 61.85 retracement would be 3436. This tells me that if iHnS is playing out, 3540 to 3436 should be the area of reversal.

My sentiments
Short Term - Bearish
Mid Term - Bullish
Long Term - Bearish

How am I going to trade this?
I've very little contracts left in my SHORT. Will close them as we proceed closer to 3540.
Got LONG orders in a separate bitmex account at 3550, 3496,3436
If we don't drop here, which is highly unlikely, I'll close my SHORT and wait for a retracement to get in a LONG position later.
Will set a sell stop around 3420 to enter a SHORT position if it keeps dumping, invalidating the iHnS.

What are my indicators saying?
FOMO
4hr has been a sell signal since 4100.
Daily is a sell signal which appeared yesterday.

Holy TrendLine (HTL)
Daily HTL is at 3744
4hrly HTL is at 3799
HTLs are red on each timeframe. Suggesting a bit more of a dump.

FOMO Momentum
Suggesting a Bullish Divergence on 4hr Timeframe (marked with pink lines).

Gigantic Bullish divergence building on Hourly (marked with pink lines).