Another Double Bottom for Bitcoin?

11 ธ.ค. 2018

The past 24 hours i have been struggling a bit to see what the bigger game plan is. After making that last update it finally struck me, big chance another double bottom is in the making here. We have similar wicks at the lows. Shows accumulation back than and could be the same now as well. The only thing that makes me doubt, is at the 3500/3600 it was buying power that pushed the price up several times when it got in the green. At the 3200/50 it was a short squeeze both times.

At the moment the 3350/60 is a clear short term resistance level, if that breaks with a few minutes, and we see a squeeze happen to at least 3420/50, it could be the double bottom is in play. There is still room for a move towards the 3200, but just as the previous one at 3500, it should NOT stay there too long.

I think there is a good chance we might get at least an answer within a few minutes. If the 3300 breaks, we could drop towards the 3200 again.

This analysis is a short term view, based on this possible double bottom, but i thought it's best to put it in a new chart, since the previous one has become quite big now.




Previous analysis:

11 ธ.ค. 2018

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Last update previous analysis:

11 ธ.ค. 2018

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Still moving inside that channel on the left.

On the right we can see the current 3300 level is where we have seen many bounces happen already. The only 2 breaks we had, turned into bear traps. So this tells me, this level is where the whales do their thing it seems

11 ธ.ค. 2018

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Here we can see the 2 levels i mean, 3360 and 3440.

On the left, it says we should still have one more drop in the low 32xx. If we stay below the 3360 it will probably happen, unless we move up from the current spot. I think a break of 3360 will make my double bottom pattern valid for 35%, a break of 3440 will make it 70%. Of course THE level to break is the previous high around 3600. if that one breaks, we should move up towards the 4000

11 ธ.ค. 2018

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The spoofing of sell orders has begun on Bitmex, pushing the price down. So far they are succeeding. I think they might be just trying to get their longs filled, since there are a lot of buy orders waiting below the 3300. But impossible for me to say if it is the same entity or just a fight going on.

So for the double bottom the 3200 needs to hold, preferably it should stay even above it. Showing some eager bulls. So either a small Bart move (small in time) or a 100/150 point bounce up has to happen to think about a decent low.

I still think the 3360ish might be an important level

11 ธ.ค. 2018

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So they got a bunch of longs filled during that small drop when i posted the previous update and we made a small bounce up along with it. The bounce already has lost it's momentum so chances are increasing for another drop like we did earlier. Now we want to see the same thing happen this time, or a Bart move. So no break of 3200ish. The higher it bounces up the better. Otherwise we can assume the 2800/3000 might get tested

11 ธ.ค. 2018

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I assumed this small inverse H&S would fail, but now it seems they might be going for it. If the 3360 breaks, it will get triggered and we would have a target around 3440

11 ธ.ค. 2018

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So the 3660ish broke and triggered a spike to 3390, but it's not there yet though. The target is around 3440. Only if the 3440 breaks, i will seriously think the double bottom might be in play. Don't forget, the real level to break is the 3600ish.

There was good volume at the break of 3660, at the moment we have the pullback. This is the moment the bulls need to show if they WANT to do this or not. the pullback should not get below the 3340/50

11 ธ.ค. 2018

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Looks like we are getting resistance from these retest of former support. If this moves starts to fail than we know why it fails. I am showing it because of that, but also because i am not seeing conviction from the bulls yet.

11 ธ.ค. 2018

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From a bullish H&S it seems to have been turned into a bearish wedge now.

The chart from the previous update showing resistance, but the blue line on the left also showed a small break out A lot of mixed signals going on here. Moments like these it's best to go to sleep and see where we are the next day :)

At the moment the bears seem to be in control again. The double bottom pattern is still potentially in play. As long as we stay above the 3250/3200, it can certainly still happen. Alts are also weakening already again, so nothing good on that part of the market.

All i can say for now is, the 3390 seems to be a real level now, the 3430 as well. On the downside it seems to be 3320.

Good luck and lets hope we have a more clear view tomorrow.

12 ธ.ค. 2018

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So the wedge failed (partially) as well, this shows the intention of the market was upwards. We can simply sate now, that the 3300/3200 is a level where buyers are stepping again, they like this level to buy it up. That 3320 (green zone on the right did it's work again.
The previous high at 3990 has been broken and now it seems the 3420/40 has been broken as well. My best guess for now is, making a small bull flag. If that happens and it looks good, i think we can move to the 3600. This will be the key level for the double bottom pattern. If it goes like this, we should be able to see the 4000 this week.

To stay objective, there is another version and that is the triangle we can see on the left. If the bulls will fail around this level and start to drop again towards the lows, than we can forget about the W bottom pattern and have to assume the triangle is in play. With a triangle, it can still break both ways, but at this spot, a bearish break is more likely.

12 ธ.ค. 2018

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I moved it to a new analysis: