Bitcoin knife catching now or never

9 มี.ค. 2020

A lot of confluence close to a clear invalidation level is what you want to look for, so here we go:

• Longterm trendline at around 7800$
  
• Sweet spot between 0.65 & 0.618 fib levels of recent move up.
  
• Monthly resistance at 7726$
  
• 900$ Futures gap above
  

Invalidation for me will be a daily close back below 7680$ / or 7500$ as last resort.

P.S.: Keep in mind this is super risky because
1. trading against the trend is always relatively stupid
2. the global economy is going south and we have no idea what this will mean for Bitcoin and cryptos in general. Will it be used as a hedge, will it be used as a store of value similar to gold/ silver, or will it just dump with everything else? We'll know more very soon, manage your risk.
P.P.S.: If everything falls apart be prepared to pull your bags off of the exchanges.

If you find this analysis helpful please press the like button and leave a comment, it's really appreciated.
Thank you and take care.

9 มี.ค. 2020

บันทึก

It's monthly support not resistance at 7726$ obviously...

9 มี.ค. 2020

บันทึก

#Bitcoin is clearly not ready to be a fully reliable store of value similar to gold but I have to admit that I'm pretty impressed by its performance today. This is way less sell off then I expected to be honest. Let's see if a structure is established on the 4h...

9 มี.ค. 2020

บันทึก

Monthly support at 7727$ holds perfectly down to the 1h so far.

10 มี.ค. 2020

การซื้อขายยังคงดำเนินอยู่

300$ up over night, nice bounce for the short-term. Now it's all about managing your gains and not giving everything back to the market. "Hope is not a strategy".

Ideally we see a break and close above 8000$ today. If a 1h candle closes below 7850$ I'll minimize exposure and will be looking for new entries between 7700 and 7727 (monthly support).

Because some of you asked for targets: for now I have 8000, 8080, 8299 (monthly resistance) on the table from where we could start to build a range structure. But to be perfectly honest with you I'm not overly excited over the price action of the last 3 hours.

Therefore the reminder again: ALWAYS have your stop loss in place, this is a high risk trade, everything can break down any minute because a lot of people have their stop losses super tight below pa which can trigger longs to be out of business in no time.

Your 1st question always should be "How can I avoid to loose money", not "how can I make more money". This whole setup is violating this sentence so don't overdo it. Small bags, low or no leverage.

Take care!

10 มี.ค. 2020

การซื้อขายยังคงดำเนินอยู่

Looks like we really caught the knife!
This recent move looks good.

In case you are looking for long entries maybe we get a retest of 8000$ but be prepared that it might get front run. 8299$ (monthly resistance) would be the next target.
If a 4h candle closes above 8000$ my guess is that we won't see a retest anytime soon...

10 มี.ค. 2020

การซื้อขายยังคงดำเนินอยู่

There you had your chance of entering a long. 8008 on Bitmex, exactly like I mentioned this morning, 8000, front run by 8 ticks ;)

Remember: everything below 7850 is game over, this is still hanging on a thread...