XAUUSD is moving in a healthy downtrend channel in Daily chart . Recently the price came close to the upper limits of the channel. In 4H chart, (Up) trend line was invalidated on Friday, 28.10.22 and 1655-1658 zone was broken to downside continued to 1644.5 by sharp red candles.
Ichimoku Clouds system analysis: In 4H chart, we had recently cross between Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen confirming a downtrend start while in 1H chart, Tenkan Sen has touched the price and both Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen are flat. Chiko Span is moving far from the candles and there is enough space between Chiko Span and candles. The cloud switched to red recently and Senko Span B is flat in 1H chart.
I consider 2 scenarios by Price action and Ichimoku analysis:
1. As a strong psychological support level of 1650 was broken and 1640 level was tested and we had a small correction at the end of Friday, we may have a continuation downward to 1640, 1635 and 1628 in extension and finally 1620. 2. The zone between 1657 - 1658 was broken with sharp candles on Friday. Price may rise up to this level and then from there it will fall again to 1650, 1640, 1635 and finally 1628 and 1620.
My position for the next week:
Condition 1: If on Monday, after European session starts, 2 green candles closes above Tenkan Sen in 1H chart, Then I will wait until price reaches to the 1657-1658 zone. After I receive a confirmation, I will set a Short order there and will sell Gold . In this case SL will be 1670.5 and my first target will be 1650 and 2nd and 3rd targets will be 1640 and 1635 accordingly. Condition 2: If Tenkan Sen will not be passed upward, I will set a Short order immediately if 1639 breaks downward. In this case my SL will be 1654 and my targets will be 1635, 1628 and 1620 accordingly.