PREPWORK THROUGH 10/13

HEADER - This is followup to a previous work

SUMMARY - We are another important decisive moment

DETAILS - Looks like 1885 then 1760 OR 2010++ (two pluses not one, meaning 2030, 2050 etc...). But my thoughts are are on 1760. See previous work for why.

NOTES - May add more with time.

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10/09 6:47 AM ET - WHERE WE LEFT OFF LAST POST.
a) so we left off on forming this chart with specific trend lines
b) any unobvious trend line was/were chosen from my regression model
c) so there's the picture in play for this week

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10/09 7:18 AM ET - SUPPORT AT 1840 AND NOT CLOSING THE GAP TODAY???\
d) looks like it's going to 1840 and getting bought to 1865
e) then 1832 AFTER 1865
f) that's what it looks like right now

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g) but like I said in previous post
h) if it moves to 1832, then it would move to 1855 in a few hours, maybe 2 maybe 4 hours

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10/09 9:32 AM ET - FIRST REACTION AFTER NY OPEN DOESN'T LEAN EITHER WAY...
a) so it's very early, VERY early
b) but the fact that we haven't even touched 1840 is sort of implying 1840 or maybe maybe maybe even 1844 will hold here
c) and a run will take place to 1865 beginning now...
d) this implies rug pull to 1832 tomorrow
e) and there are many ifs here....
f) but already odds of a 1950 high for Friday are starting to pick up
g) but conversely odds of numbers higher than 1950 are dropping too...
h) so definitely a lot gray here

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10/09 10:52 AM ET CONTINUING AS EXPECTED
a) so 1843.xx held as suggested
b) and we are moving for 1865, but first 1855-57 in hours
c) first move to this area will get sold off to 1850-52 again
d) the next question is will price move for 1865 before NY CLOSES?
e) current expectations saying no
f) but last I night in previous post, it was also saying 1832 this morning
g) that is saying 2 things
h) don't be surprised by a move for 1865 before markets close today, even though I doubt it
i) the first signal for that would be 1858 very soon

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j) the speed and size of the sell off after 1865, and how fast it will get bought
k) all of this inside 40 hours
l) obviously will determine HOW PRICE ACT WED THUR FRI

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m) I will comment next when we are 1845 after 1865

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3:40 PM ET 1862.XX WE HAVE A SHOT AT 1865
n) everything happened in realm of our expectations
o) so that's a wrap for today

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10/09 5:14 PM ET... I NEED SOME HELP
a) so if you've been reading my posts since 9/12
b) you realize there's real value to my research
c) I've tried to make this process continue for as long as I can...
d) and finally figured out how to do it right over the last 3 weeks
e) but I can only keep doing this if there's legit interest in making this continue
f) so if you believe this work is legit, please support by spreading the word to other readers
g) this is really my last shot making this a real thing

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10/09 5:36 PM ET
1) so overnight targets are:
2) 1865, 1868, 1874, 1879
3) do I think it gets above 1865? or 1868?
4) I think it's hard to get past 1868
5) but the momentum in the regressions say it is the bears that need to to prove they can stop it
6) and at this second in time I don't yet have a reason to NOT EXPECT higher
7) this may change in 6 hours or it may not, we will see
8) with that said... BUT IF price tags higher than 1868 the bull route to 2010++ have to taken seriously

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6:12 PM ET, for chart above:
a) so VERY GENERALLY, that is the look for next 24 hours or so
b) there 3 things that can be said about that
c) a move to 1875, but HOW IT GETS THERE IS NOT RELIABLE
d) a check down to 1855-1860 after market opens in NY
e) and the first reaction is that checkdown SHOULD BE BOUGHT
f) HOWEVER, I am doing this unreliable from my phone
g) so I am not sure HOW STRONG WILL THAT BUYING AT 1855 AREA WILL.BE TOMORROW

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h) do not use that hilight as a guide
i) it's a VERY GENERALIZED pattern, that is all

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j) so if you are up tonight until 3 AM ET, keep looking up and up

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k) as always, if price goes off anticipated path, assume I am wrong and trade defensively

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l) that is to say if I don't post something to a move off the plan, assume I am wrong until my next update

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7:37 PM ET - A NOTE ABOUT UPDATING
1) if you've read me in the last year...
2) you aware that my position is that the more I pay attention (or continuously watch price), the more I get right
3) that is also saying the longer I don't chime in and add notes the less valid my forecasts are

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4) so the more time passes would my saying something, the less you can trust what I said about expectations

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5) that's the same thing as saying I have a method to continuously forecast price accurately
6) but it I don't have the backing to automate it
7) so let's do this for 100 days to prove my pint once and for all
8) and if you are interested in getting this thing off the ground with me (background in software engineering, coding, finance) let me know

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8:00 PM ET 1862.XX, looking like 1866+ soon, need reconfirmation.

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8:54 PM ET 1864.XX, second try to break up should do it after first tag of 1865 got smacked down.
a) so I said "need reconfirmation" bc the look of a "breakout" and the look of a "double top" is very similar
b) you can't honestly say you know without several angles regressions or wave ratios
c) even in a strong 1-direction move
d) so since I was on the road, I stated what I saw and said "need reconfirmation"

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e) so the breakout is aiming for 1868.50 but maybe not directly
f) meaning a bit zig zag this hour before 1868-69 in 90 min or so

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g) more like 60-75 min

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h) 9:05 PM ET, first sign of a 1880 high tomorrow before noon ET

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i) that does not mean likely, that just means its on the radar, or realistic

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j) 9:10 PM ET, runaway extreme is at 1894 can't be eliminated for 12 hours zone
k) until we see reaction at 1875-1880

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l) correction, for 9 hour zone, not 12 hours
m) bc 1894 window expire at 6 AM ET, even if price rises continuously

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n) correction again, for 14 hours, not 9 or 12

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9:41 PM ET, so now it looks like this:

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a) for chart above:
b) so now it looks like we are not going to tag 1855 in the morning
c) furthermore, 1880 is likely before 2 PM ET
d) furhtermore, if we tag 1855, it won't be until late Tuesday night
e) why?
f) bc the SECOND TIME it retracs to 1860-63 it will STILL BE BOUGHT
g) but thats just getting way ahead of ourselves extrapolating
h) what is reliable for now?
i) next stop 1875 followed by 1863 followed by second run at 1875

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9:46 PM ET WHAT COMES AFTER 1885??
a) so I know we should take 2010 seriously for Friday
b) but that doesn't mean that it is the favorite yet
c) right now, w/o total reconfirmation here's how that looks
d) 1920 is favored vs 1760
e) but 1760 is favored over 2010
g) again, lots of gray
h) as I have said before, even if it's hard to handicap...
i) handicap we must to have a view on what's coming
j) otherwise, it's a shot in the dark

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9:52 PM FIRST SIGN OF BEARS HOLDING 1868
a) very early, odds at less than 10%

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b) 9:59 PM ET 1863.XX ok so bears want 1860-61 next
c) my experience here says prove it
d) as in until they prove they can do it odds still favor 1868-1875 next
e) but I would say they are 20%

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10:12 PM ET 1864.XX here's that chart again (missed a line):

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a) let's try this again w/ chart above:
b) so right now, the lower line is in play
c) if and when it crosses to the right...
d) the 3 lines coming from the 1855 gap up becomes the important ones in descending order one by one
e) as of this second in time, I am still expecting 1875 next following the hilight
f) if I wake in the middle of the night, I will chime in to see what's going on

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g) I gotta clean up and get to bed

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10/09 11:00 PM ET, W/O GOING INTO DETAIL, HERE'S A SIGNAL FOR 1843:

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a) for chart above:
b) so that line from 1810 (from NFP), looks like it's about to break
c) from 5 angles or different ratios, it is not favored to break
d) but if it does soon...
e) the math says it's going 1843 by noon tomorrow

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f) so what do I still think?
g) I still think 1875 next

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11:17 PM LAST NOTE AND I'M BEDSY:

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a) for chart above:
b) so right now combined blue and orange route odds are 80% or more
c) while gray route to 1843 is 20% or less

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d) THAT IS RIGHT NOW...
e) but odds change based on what happens next couple of hours so be aware

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f) just like that and it's 25% now at 11:23 PM ET
g) price moves somewhat like water to me

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h) so before I'm out, I think it's the orange route, it makes the most sense

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i) so price stays between these two lines:

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j) will pickup from there middle of the night or in the morning either or

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k) as a clue, if by 3 AM ET it gets under the lower bold line...
l) that's a real sign it's doing the the gray route to 1841-42 by 2 PM ET tomorrow

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m) how quickly things change... huh? was just talking 1880s a few hours ago

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10/10 12:01 AM ET, I DONT HAVE EVIDENCE FOR THIS...
a) this is my gut saying this; bc it's an underdog
b) but if we are going to do 1760 next, then the gray route should win out
c) that means from here, it's 1855, 1861, 1855, 1841 (and lower?), and then 1865 again on Wed AM right b4 CPI

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10/10 7:15 SO HERE IS WHAT HAPPENED:

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a) price took an even weaker version of the gray route
b) which when picked up originally wasn't even 10%
c) but as stated in the clue I wrote last night, breaking under second line would mean gray route

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7:32 AM ET SO TUESDAY TO NY CLOSE LOKS LIKE THIS:

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a) in chart above, what I think I know now:
b) so first the small bounce to 1858-ish doesn't have to happen
c) or actuallly doesn't have to happen "that way"
d) it could be like this (but same difference):

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e) so with chart above, odds of striking 1844 is SUPER HIGH right now
f) what we DON'T KNOW bc it's not in the bollingers right now is THE TAIL END TO 1832
g) like last night, where bears have to prove they can stop numbers above 1865
h) bears HAVE TO PROVE THEY CAN BREAK UNDER 1841
i) having said that (please aware of the process last night where 1880 target became 1841 target) this morning
j) so here's the trend lines you need to watch for this SCENARIO PLAYING OUT

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k) in chart above:
l) so the three 2-point bolded lines are obvious
m) the very bolded line DOES NOT EXIST YET, it's implied
n) so make that line striking at 1832 by NY CLOSE SO 4 PM ET
o) what regressions are saying is that odds of striking 1844-43-42 are high ahead of noon
p) then comes the prerequesite bounce past THE LINE THAT DOES NOT EXIST YET
q) and THEN IF price follows through and fill out the taill ...
r) and ODDS OF THIS HAPPENING IS BIG UNDERDOG, but so was the gray route vs orange and blue last night when I posted the 3 routeS
s) then that should be what you get when price tags 1832 FROM ABOVE LINE THAT DOES NOT EXIST YET

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10/10 7:56 AM ET, SO IT LOOKS LIKE THIS RIGHT NOW THROUGH WED NIGHT:

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a) for chart above: so the light gray part is strong
b) everything after is implied by longer trends
c) bc chart above was derived from 2 and 4 min bars
d) but the darker gray was derived from 15, 22, 30, and 45 min bars
e) then why would it be less valid?
f) the reason is simple, bc 1 5-minute bars is made of 5 1-minute bars

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g) so for this morning, it is short until 1844 (bc that's the easy part)
h) I am going to tap out until afternoon w 2 reminders
1) as always, if price moves away from forecast and I don't update in time, just assume I am wrong and trade defensively or trade what you see
2) if this work helps you please introduce to some one else by word of mouth (this is best way for me to keep on doing this for you, bc if I can't garner massive interest, I have to quit this for good)

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8:11 AM ET HERE'S PICTURE FROM 1-MIN BAR (if nothing changes, I will post same chart as it evolves)

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9:11 AM ET first sign of something else ?

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a) an alternate route already existed before
b) just replay chart at top and look at orange path
c) but bulls have to prove it

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d) if they do bqreak tqhat line, then bulls hold 1851 and then sideways for1

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e) roughly 12 hours

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f) 9:40 AM ET

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g) indecision... nothing yet

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h) we should know by 10:30 AM ET

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9:57 AM ET bulls want this:

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Or this, but same difference:

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And barring surprise reversal in hours, now we know:

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SO THIS DEVELOPMENT MEANS NEXT 10 HOURS NOT WORTH TRADING

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a) for chart above:
b) so barring a surprise reversal to gray route
c) there a number of zigzag route before actually moving for 1880
d) they are all equally valid and like to morph into each other
e) that's another way of saying let's just call it a day

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f) I will pick up here at 7PM ET.

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g) for those trading it, it's 1855-1865, but more like 1857-1863, scalp all you want

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10:40 AM ET... so in most recent notes above, I mentioned "barring a surprise reversal" twice... and this is why:

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a) for chart above:
b) does that mean it's going gray route again?
c) it means it's more likely, that is all

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d) ok, so under that line, gray is favored
e) over that line orange is favored
f) but I swear I've seen it done this (and provide zero clue which direction):

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g) to sum it up, if it stays under that line for some time like in this box w/o crossing up:

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h) then this is our "base case for next 30 hours:

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i) for chart above: so the gray route would be odds on favorite by far...
j) with a possible 55 point move from WED 7 AM TO 7PM

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k) for an example about how annoying this part is until 2-3 PM
l) right now at 10:54 AM ET, AND UNDER THAT LINE, AND 1854.97....
m) 15- and 30-sec bars favor bull route, and they are probably wrong
n) but YOU DON'T KNOW THAT until it's decisive

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o) even on smaller scales it's weird
p) 1-, 5-, even 10-sec bars calling 1850 next, but 15-sec and 30-sec bars calling 1860 next
q) so you don't know until you know

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11:49 AM ET GOT THE SIGNAL FOR 1868-1870 BY NY CLOSE:

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a) so here it's the blue route
b) I totally DO NOT KNOW WHAT IT DOES AFTER THAT
c) there's 3-4 permutations of trends and they all make sense
d) so let's just wait for reaction at 1868-1870 then we will discuss more
e) originally the cap for today's high was 1863 this morning
f) but after the third or fourth mini-checkdowns, now it's 1870

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12:15 PM -- I've stated many times... that in order to get it right, you have to watch ALL THE TIME... because the moves sometime morphs continuously in a just a short time. Hence:

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a) for chart above:
b) obviously gray route is big under dog now
c) orange is also not favored
d) the most likely is now blue route
e) red route is just a variation of blue route
f) so expectations are:
g) 1868, 1870, 1873, 1875 all before midnight
h) i) then it gets confusing whether we do an ascending double top or a descending double top

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i) but right this second (and this s*$& changes ALL THE TIME...), all of them say 1810 before Wednesday midnight into Thursdsay:

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12:37 PM ET, 10/10 so now, this is base case:

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... so on 2-min bars, this is the line we are watching for that signal:

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a) for chart above:
b) so that signal is
c) if we close above that line today
d) regressions say we run to 1870, 1875, 1880 and 1885 w/in realm of reason

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e) if you replay chart at top, we are at the first bear box (first blue one)
f) the whole idea of this work is to first, get a very generalized idea about what is coming
g) and then DETAIL THE WORK AROUND THE CLOCK AS OFTEN AS POSSIBLE
h) in that way, there are no surprises
i) but remember, if I stop updating and something goes off the anticipated path....
j) always assume I'm wrong and trade defensively

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k) because outdated and wrong is the same thing

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l) for those quick w/ the math, here is how (on 1 of 5 major wave ratios, or as I call them view "angle"), this move is anticipated:

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a) so first, all longer waves/trends have been taken into consideration
b) so now light gray wave=x, orange =1/2(x), navy =1/4(x), dark gray/black=1/8(x)
c) we know, due to the composition (perfect order, short to long) of 1/8(x) that
d) a great majority of the time.. it will turn 1/4(x) the other direction or back up
e) at the same time , even though 1/2(x) has negative slope, it is STILL ON TOP OF "x"
f) this configuration STRONGLY IMPLIES A A MOVE TO 1869-1870 or at the top of the waves in this picture

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g) so here are "congruent bolllingers for those waves" overlayed:

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h) in this configuration the median of 1-SD bollinger of orange wavve is at 1850-ish
i) but once price hits 1870, it makes the slope of this wave TEMPORARILY POSITIVE, pushing for the top of bollinger now at1873.5
j) fractal patterns say it over shoots 1874 by 5-10 pts
k) if it doesn't???, then this:

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l) so here's what we need to make the next 36 hours VERY INTERESTING AND HIGH VALUE 2-WAY VOL (huge profitable zig-zags)

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m) for chart above: so we need it to take out that line
n) it should and once it does, it will also check down to make sure, bc it always does...
o) most of the remaining move will happen AFTER 6PM ET once markets re-open
p) I wonder if some ISRAEL-IRAN news make the machines run it up and then rug pull

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q) I am going to take a long break and be back like 10 PM ET...
r) as always, watch for changes to the anticipated move, if it leans too far, assume I was wrong and trade defensively

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s) but keep in mind the main move we wait for is this one, bc all the permutations say this right now:

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1:36 pm ET 1859.88.. until price holds under 1857 for 15-30 min
a) then blue route is still odds on favorite for this topping process
b) if it holds under 1857, then its another route to 1810, I just have to see later

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2:30 PM ET.. I am stumpted right now... WTF? how did that not break yet??
a) too many permutations to follow through at this juncture
b) that is to say that for me to figure which one is favorite, it takes more time than we have from now to midnight
c) arghh....

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2:56 PM ET - THIS POST HAS ENDED -- I think I got the way down, go here: